Chuck from Muncie, IN writes, "Indianapolis, New England, and San Diego have to be the preseason favorites in the AFC. Which one of these teams will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl in February? If not one of those three, what teams could surprise as the AFC champion?"
It does look like a three-team race in the AFC, and this year, you might as well call the AFC champ the Super Bowl champ. But is it too early to start talking playoffs when practice has just begun? As much as I'd love to hear Jim Mora, Sr. and Allen Iverson debate that question, it's never too early to talk postseason.
This year's schedule includes a nice little round-robin tournament between the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, the outcomes of which will likely provide playoff implications, like the trusty head-to-head tiebreaker. It gets started in Week 2, when the Chargers visit the Patriots on September 16. The Chargers are practically the same team that powered through the 2006 regular season with a 14-2 record, only to fall at home to the Patriots in the divisional round.
Gone is Marty Schottenheimer, fired as head coach after that loss. Chargers brass followed that questionable move with an even more questionable move: hiring Norv Turner to replace Schottenheimer. For sure, Schottenheimer was fired because of his lack of coaching success in the playoffs, but Turner's has exactly one playoff win. Yes, I know, Turner is an offensive genius, but so was Sam Kennison, and he's never won a single playoff game.
But how hard can it be to devise a San Diego offensive game plan? Just give LaDainian Tomlinson the ball, throw a few play action passes, and let L.T. punch it in. And this is practically the same offense that Turner installed as offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2001. On defense, linebacker Shawne Merriman will harass Tom Brady, and not just for pictures of Giselle Bundchen. New England will counter by trotting out its new showpieces, Adalius Thomas on defense and Randy Moss on offense. A slight, and by "slight," I mean "humongous" coaching edge to the Pats. The result: a narrow Charger win. Revenge is a great motivator, even when preached by Turner.
In Week 9, New England visits Indianapolis. These teams have met in the regular season for the last four years. In three of those years, the winner of that game has also won the playoff rematch, and subsequently gone on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts won last year's regular season matchup 27-20, then overcame a 21-3 half-time deficit to win the AFC championship, 38-34. Again, revenge plays a factor, and New England wins a shootout "behind" two touchdowns from Moss, who refrains from celebrating with a faux pants-off dance off in lieu of a "Foxboro Flop" into a sea of adoring fans.
The Colts go to San Diego the following week, reeling from the New England loss, as well as a loss in Jacksonville two weeks earlier, in which the Colts give up 458 yards rushing. It's a must win for the Colts, who can't afford any more conference losses. Peyton Manning carries the Colts, and ducks a blind-side sack attempt from the charging Merriman and hits Marvin Harrison for the fourth-quarter game-winning score.
So, where does that leave us? The round-robin tournament results in a 1-1 for all three teams. No tiebreaker advantage there. And maybe another AFC contender, the Baltimore Ravens, will have a say in the matter. The Ravens play San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis, so this could just as easily be a four-team round-robin. The problem is the Ravens play them in succession, in a brutal three-week stretch at San Diego in Week 12, then at home versus the Pats and Colts in Week 13 and 14. An 0-3 record in those games could be fatal to Baltimore's Super Bowl aspirations. The Ravens also must twice battle division foe Cincinnati, which could be a Super Bowl possibility, depending on their shaky defense, as well as the severity/leniency of court judges. In short, Baltimore is the fourth or fifth best team in the AFC.
As the past two years have shown, home-field advantage is not imperative for a run the the NFL championship. And it won't matter this year. New England wins home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but loses to the Chargers in the AFC title game. Tomlinson wins his first Super Bowl, debunking the myth that monkeys were made only to ride quarterbacks' backs.
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