2007 NFL Preview: Tight Ends

If you're a football fan, I hope you had the time to watch all six induction speeches at the NFL Pro Football Hall of Fame on Saturday.

Gene Hickerson. Thurman Thomas. Michael Irvin. Charlie Sanders. Roger Wehrli. Bruce Matthews. Each one said something profound, and I'm a better person for the few hours I spent listening to their stories.

I'll admit there was also an element of jealousy to the evening. It wasn't from an athletic standpoint. I've been outclassed in that regard since very early on in this life. But when I heard Wehrli and his presenter, Larry Wilson, thank St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz, I felt it.

It's not that I begrudge Miklasz (or Don Pierson from the Chicago Tribune or Tony Grossi from the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, both of whom were thanked by Hickerson's son, Bob Hickerson). From all accounts, Miklasz was integral to Wehrli finally being inducted after two decades of eligibility. He made a good man's life better, and I imagine it must be an extreme source of pride to have your family name included at such a momentus occasion.

But it's not the glory of a name that impressed me most. What struck me was the impact a good writer and journalist can have on the world he covers. Miklasz has forever impacted Wehrli, his family and the history of professional football.

Impact. In the end, that's all any writer wants to achieve.

I respect Miklasz, Pierson and Grossi for their accomplishments, and I envy their impact. W. Clement Stone would call it inspirational dissatisfaction - I am dissatisfied because I have not yet achieved that by which I am inspired.

***

Believe it or not, this column was not intended as an ode to Miklasz, who has given me no aid in my continuing efforts to force the Post-Dispatch to pay me to do what I already do for free.

This is still a preview column focused on NFL tight ends in 2007. There are fantasy leagues to win. We've got work to do.

In honor of another Hall of Famer inducted Saturday, Detroit Lions TE Charlie Sanders, we're going to count down the tight ends by chances of joining the Hall themselves. Sanders was number seven at the position. Tony Gonzalez will be number eight, unless former Raider Todd Christensen gets in first (which I don't think he will). Are there any others?

Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs

He's a first-ballot guy without a doubt. Fifty-nine or more receptions for nine consecutive seasons, seven of those with 70-plus. Had 102 receptions in 2004, 61 total touchdowns. If this is a fantasy draft, Antonio Gates takes the one slot. But from a Hall perspective, the conversation begins with Gonzalez.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

In just four seasons, Gates already has more than half the number of touchdowns (34) as Gonzalez has in 10. Considering he's in a great offense with all of the main contributors still in their prime, there's a good shot Gates becomes the new historic standard for tight end production.

Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns

This is high for a guy who has exactly one year of productive professional football on his resume, but it was a hell of year (89 receptions for 875) considering the mess of an offense he was operating in. Really, this is a vote of confidence in Brady Quinn. If you think Quinn-to-Winslow has the same potential as Philip Rivers-to-Gates in San Diego, then you push him high. If you don't, you don't. I do.

Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens

Going into every year, there's been the anticipation of this being the year Heap breaks through for a 90-catch, 12-TD season. But here we are, going into year seven, and his career high in receptions is 75. He's never had a 900-yard season. He's a great player, but right now, the "never the best" argument is in effect.

Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants

I love watching Shockey play. He brings an enthusiasm and toughness to the game that pumps up the crowd and both teams. And he's had decent production over the first five seasons of his career (four seasons above 60 receptions; 20 touchdowns over the past three years). But he's had to miss at least one game every season and seems to be limping every other play. If he can string together a few 80-catch seasons and keep up the scoring, he can work his way into Hall consideration.

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

You might be surprised to see Witten ranked so highly, but he's got 217 receptions for 2,491 yards and 13 TDs over the past three seasons. He's got a young quarterback entering his prime and plays in a balanced offense. If he can keep up the production and increase his scoring, he's in the conversation.

Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams

McMichael greatly increased his potential by joining the Rams this offseason. He's now got the opportunity to play in one of the most balanced offenses in the league, with one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and for a head coach who used to be his offensive coordinator. He's only 28, so he could have the better part of a decade with high production ahead of him.

Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins

He's had decent production through the first three years (165 receptions, 19 TDs), and should have a good year ahead with second-year QB Jason Campbell looking for his check-down a lot (as all new starters do). Can he put up the numbers over the next decade to become a legit Hall candidate? I don't know. The real question is whether Art Monk will have finally made it in by the time Cooley retires. (I hope so. He deserves it.)

Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons

I've always thought Crumpler's fantasy reputation surpassed his production. In six years, he's only topped 60 catches and 800 yards once (65 for 877 in 2005). The demolition of Michael Vick's career might actually help Crumpler, since a normal quarterback (translation: somebody who can get more yards checking down than running) will probably use him more, especially if the receiving corps doesn't develop.

Ben Watson, New England Patriots

Watson has the raw skill to be one of the best ever, but I'm not sure he'll ever get the opportunity in New England to put up the stats to prove it. The Pats offense is about spreading the ball, so no one player really stands to break out with astronomical numbers. But Watson has the talent, the quarterback and the team reputation to make a Hall case.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers

Miller has shown flashes of brilliance, but not the consistent production over his first two years. The change in coaching staff, with the more wide-open offense we saw last night at the Hall of Fame Game, might bode well. Not only is Miller a great fantasy sleeper for 2007, but he's a Hall sleeper as well.

Eric Johnson, New Orleans Saints

We know Johnson has breakout potential, with 82 catches in 2004, but an injury wiped out 2005 and the arrival of Vernon Davis cut into his chances last year. The escape from San Francisco, where Davis is going to continue to be the focus, raises Johnson's career ceiling. With only 7 scores in 57 career games, he's going to need to get into the end zone a lot more to garner serious Hall consideration.

L.J. Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

It seems like he's been around a lot longer than just four years, but Smith is only 27. His production up until now has been good, but not great (61 and 50 receptions the past two years, respectively). With no major changes in the offense on the horizon (except for maybe at QB), there's no real reason to expect a dramatic jump from what we've already seen.

Ben Utecht / Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts

Alone, you could make a case that either guy in the Colts offense has the potential to put up Hall numbers (with Clark the more likely, though also the more injury-prone). But with both on the same team, neither is going to get enough of a personal spotlight. I guess Super Bowl rings are just going to have to be enough.

Daniel Graham, Denver Broncos

Graham was used more as a blocker with the Pats, so the move to Denver might give a jump start to his offensive production. Still, with only 120 career receptions in five years, he would have to quadruple his annual stats to end up with Hall-worthy career totals. Being a great blocker just isn't enough.

Too Early To Tell

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
Owen Daniels, Houston Texans
Alex Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ben Troupe, Tennessee Titans
Leonard Pope, Arizona Cardinals
Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders

It may well turn out these guys put up much better numbers than the guys ahead of them. But putting rookies and first- and second-year guys in a Hall of Fame conversation is generally premature. Give it a year or two. From a fantasy perspective, watch out for Miller. He's a poor man's Todd Heap.

No, But Still Personal Favorites

Jim Kleinsasser, Minnesota Vikings
Jermaine Wiggins, Jacksonville Jaguars

I always enjoy watching them play, so they get their own category.

Just No

Marcus Pollard, Seattle Seahawks
Chris Baker, New York Jets
Michael Gaines, Carolina Panthers
David Martin, Miami Dolphins
Robert Royal, Buffalo Bills
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Bubba Franks, Green Bay
Reggie Kelley, Cincinnati Bengals

It's not that these guys stink or anything. But, for one reason or another, they haven't had elite production. That fact is not likely to change.

Also see: NFL '07 Preview: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers

Seth Doria is a writer in St. Louis. He writes for the love. The Left Calf. Hi, Mom.

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