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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

2007 NFL Preview: New York Giants

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

With the additions of Sam Madison, Will Demps, and LaVar Arrington to an ailing defense and the expected growth of a certain Manning, the New York Giants were hoping to build on an 11-win season in 2005.

But after the first month, the Giants had more in-house problems than the Osbourne's and the expectations were vastly lowered. They looked like they were ready to implode after the Seattle Seahawks stuffed their cleats deep into their rear-ends during a 42-30 stomping in Week 3. The Giants climbed to relevance with five straight wins, but followed that up with losses in six of their final seven games.

Many offseason additions failed as Madison and Demps combined for four interceptions, while Arrington's only good game — or half — came Week 6 in the game he tore ACL.

While one can point to a number of injuries, which unquestionably hindered the Giants from reaching their full potential, the biggest ailment for the franchise was the lack of overall growth.

On defense, Corey Webster didn't look any more adept than he did in his rookie season, the issues at outside linebacker were not solved and horrid tackling was once again the demise of the defense.

On offense, Sinorice Moss essentially lost a season, questions as to whether Brandon Jacobs could handle a full-time set of carries wasn't answered and Eli Manning definitely did not take a big step forward.

Manning's stats have looked very similar the past two seasons and now some pessimistic thoughts have begun to ruminate as to whether he ever will be a franchise quarterback.

His mechanics are still inconsistent and he is definitely not the on-field general that his brother is. We keep waiting for that pouting expression to be replaced with a fired up look of stern concentration, but the truth is that nothing really appears to faze Manning.

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers

All eyes were on Eli Manning last season — as they have been since he was drafted — examining what type of improvements he had made. The truth is that there weren't many.

2005:
16 GP, 294-557 (52.8%), 3,762 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT, 75.9 QB rating

2006:
16 GP, 301-522 (57.7%), 3,244 yards, 24 TD, 18 INT, 77.0 QB rating

His completion percentage jumped up nearly five points, but his yardage totals dropped quite a bit.

Leaving the expectations of greatness aside for a second, those numbers are not bad for a starting quarterback. What is really guised here is his inconsistency, which has plagued his career so far.

Take a look at the breakdown for Manning in the team's wins versus the team's losses:

8 Wins:
145-250 (58%), 14 TD, 5 INT, 87.4 QB rating

8 Losses:
156-272 (57.4%), 10 TD, 13 INT, 67.4 QB rating

For the most part, Manning was the reason the Giants would either win or lose come Sunday.

Further breakdown shows that Manning had 15 touchdown and zero interceptions in the red zone, which shows that he does have the sharp accuracy and keen decision making skills that we all thought he did. Now it is more a matter of being steady throughout the game and season.

The truth is that while Manning has been scrutinized quite a bit for his underachievement, a lot of excuses have poured in to defend him. Blame has been spread on offensive coordinators, Plaxico Burress, and Jeremy Shockey. The bottom line still remains that the burden is on Manning to make those people/players better, not the other way around.

Not Smarter Than A Fifth-Grader Because...

They released left tackle Luke Petitgout. Sometimes people talk about Petitgout as being somewhat injury-prone, but the truth is that he played 113 out of a possible 128 games in his eight-year career. A broken leg cost him seven games last year and a back injury limited him to 10 games in 2003. Aside from that, he hasn't played less than 15 games in any season.

The bigger — and possibly more accurate — knock on Petitgout is that he is not a premier left tackle in the same class as Orlando Pace or Walter Jones. While that is true, any team that doesn't have a Pace or a Jones would start Petitgout in a pinch. He may not be great, but he is still very good.

What makes this a complete boneheaded move was the fact that there is no replacement. Save the "we David Diehl" argument; all that means is that you have to replace the vacancy that Diehl will leave open when he slides over to replace him. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that Diehl will be an upgrade at left tackle. The bottom line is that the Giants downgraded their offensive line by cutting Petitgout and don't have a legitimate replacement for neither him nor Diehl, should he slide over from guard.

Will Win the Super Bowl and Will Pay +3500 If...

Eli Manning turns into Peyton Manning times 1,000. Their chances are slim.

On offense, Tiki Barber is gone and in steps Reuben Droughns. His acquisition is peculiar, since he brings the same inside power-running style that Brandon Jacobs entails. The Giants will have a power attack with no deep threats.

The success of the team is banking on the growth of Eli Manning. If he does grow up, meaning that his completion percentage surpasses 60% and he doesn't throw more than 15 interceptions, the Giants could be a playoff team and no more.

The "could" in the last sentence will turn to a "will" if Sinorice Moss develops into a slot receiver and Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey also experience progressions.

On defense, the Giants generate more questions than Stephon Marbury's sports talk show. The defensive tackles overachieved last year and will need to keep it up. Defensive end is the team's strongest position, assuming Lisfranc injuries from last year don't impact the performance of Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck this season (and Strahan shows up).

Can Mathias Kiwanuka make a successful move to linebacker? Considering that his strength is pass-rushing, I'll say that at-best this is a transitional year for him.

With first-round pick Aaron Ross in tow, the Giants might have two good cornerbacks by midseason.

As a whole, there are no obvious indications that the defense will be better. On offense, the team has added a hole to their offensive line and lost Barber. If Manning doesn't improve, the offense will be undoubtedly worse.

Add to all of that, a lame duck coach who is just waiting to get fired. The Giants seemingly tuned him out after a 23-0 shutout playoff loss to Carolina, but he is still sticking around. Throw in some clubhouse bickering and there is no reason to have high expectations for the Giants this year.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

After being tabbed as a sleeper two seasons in a row and falling somewhat short of fantasy expectations, most people will have Eli Manning pegged as more of a number-two fantasy quarterback. But without Tiki Barber around, Manning will have to throw the ball more often than in previous seasons. Brandon Jacobs has not shown that he can handled full-time carries and Reuben Droughns is coming off a terrible season. Expect Manning to have higher passing totals and more touchdowns. Whether he becomes a better quarterback in the NFL (lowers interceptions, improves completion percentage) won't really affect fantasy production too much.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:37 AM | Comments (0)

Team USA: A Fresh Start

&It's hard to believe that it has been 15 years since the Dream Team first took on the world in the first Olympic Games to feature NBA players on the USA team. That team, with 10 of the 12 players eventually landing on the NBA 50 greatest players list, won their eight Olympic games by an average of 44 points. The gold medal game against Croatia was their toughest test. They won by 32.

Fast forward a mere 12 years to the 2004 games in Athens, where the U.S. team lost three games en route to a most disappointing bronze medal finish. In a little over a decade, the U.S. team went form invincible to embarrassing. Turning down the Olympics became the cool thing to do. Turing things around became a more daunting task.

That's when Jerry Colangelo was brought in. Realizing that the team concept had taken the international teams to a higher level, Colangelo wisely asked players for a three-year commitment in order to build cohesion. He also brought in a coach, Mike Krzyzewski, who is as well-known for building teams and relationships as he is for X's and O's (his card is American Express).

Colangelo breathed life into a dying basketball program and is in the process of bringing USA basketball back to the level that it should have never left in the fist place. After defeating Venezuela by 43 points in the first game of the Tournament of the Americas, the team seems poised to easily reclaim the gold. Here are a few reasons to watch as the USA tries to qualify for the 2008 Beijing Games:

1. A Well-Constructed Team

At a glance, the 1992 team looks like a collection of the greatest individuals ever assembled. Take a closer look. Jordan, Magic, David Robinson, Stockton, Bird. This list goes on and on. Those are some of the greatest team players to ever play.

Team USA strayed from the team concept in recent years, but Colangelo has changed that. Role players like Tyson Chandler, Mike Miller, and Tayshaun Prince have been added to the roster to make the team more complete as a unit as opposed to playing with 12 individuals.

It will be interesting to see if Kobe, LeBron, and company can continue the all for one attitude all throughout the Tournament of the Americas and beyond. It may be tough for some of these guys to remember that they don't have to do all the scoring, rebounding, passing, ball handling, etc. There are actually 11 other guys on the team who are worthwhile.

2. The Coaching Staff

Colangelo has put together an interesting mix. He has the leader (Coach K), the zone guru (Jim Boeheim), the International Basketball expert (Mike D'Antoni), and Nate McMillan. (I'm not really sure what his area of expertise is.)

3. The Team Actually Cares

That one surprised me, too. The whole team was up off the bench in the first quarter building momentum for the starters as they breezed out to an early lead. The team kept the intensity up the entire first half, and led by 30 at half-time. It's actually seems like this is a business trip for these guys. That's too bad, too. The already baron desert area surrounding Vegas could have really used some of these guys and their rainmaking ability.

4. Kobe Bryant

If watching Kobe Bryant play basketball doesn't get you excited, I don't know what to tell you. Say what you want about him, but he is by far the greatest basketball player on the planet. No one else is even close. I'm not saying he doesn't make some ;questionable" comments from time to time, but there is no denying that he loves basketball and he loves to win.

The way he hawked the ball in the Venezuela game makes you realize that his scoring binges get all the highlights and recognition, but there is a reason he has been First Team All-Defense five times and Second Team twice. He has asked to guard the best player on the opposing team every game based on the effort he gave Wednesday, there is a good chance that player will go scoreless for several minutes at a time.

5. Bill Walton

The ESPN family of networks is carrying the games of the Tournament of the Americas, and that means two straight weeks of Bill Walton. Apparently, Bill didn't have time to watch film or research the opposing team. He did, however, seemingly spend hours researching valuable information that he was able to work into the broadcast.

According to Professor Walton, Venezuela abolished slavery 10 years before the United States. Fascinating. I wasn't wondering at all about whether Venezuela was going to be playing a similar style as the team's that had given USA trouble in the past, or who their key players were. What I really wanted to know, and thank goodness Walton told me, was what their chief export is. (It's oil. I know this know because Walton brought this up no less than three times.)

Sure, the talent doesn't compare to that of a NBA game, and the rules are a little different and it takes some getting used to, but if you are a diehard basketball fan like I am, you don't want to have to wait until November to see great players play meaningful games. The Tournament of the Americas isn't going to provide the drama of the NBA playoffs, but it is a chance to see some great players makes great plays and it is a chance to see team USA try to rebuild its program back to where it should be.

And if basketball at a level that isn't as high as you're used to doesn't interest you, just listen to Bill Walton. Worst case scenario, you might learn something.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:15 AM | Comments (2)

August 23, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: New Orleans Saints

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

A new coaching staff, a quarterback recovering from major shoulder surgery, a freshly reconstructed offensive line, and a defense lacking virtually everything except for defensive ends.

That's what the New Orleans Saints were last offseason, but as is typical in the NFL, they were that one team caught a lot of breaks and went from outhouse to penthouse.

Well, "breaks" may be a loose way of describing what happened to them, but who could have really predicted what transpired last season?

On the offense alone, there was more turnover than a local McDonalds.

The Saints plugged Jon Stinchcomb at right tackle, even though he hadn't shown much early in his career, and moved stalwart tackle Jamaal Brown to the left side. In the middle, they picked up Jeff Faine off the Cleveland Browns and started rookie Jahri Evans at guard.

The fact that they jelled so quickly and performed as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL is simply amazing.

They were protecting Drew Brees, who definitely helped out his front five by getting rid of the ball quickly.

Remember how the Miami Dolphins were debating between Brees and Daunte Culpepper, but opted for Culpepper because his injury was knee related while Brees' was shoulder related?

Yeah, they screwed up — only I'm inclined to use the "F" word instead of the word "screwed."

Brees was part of the quarterback rehab watch last summer that included Culpepper, Carson Palmer, and Byron Leftwich. It wasn't a surprise that Brees was healthy or effective, what opened eyes was the fact that he was the best quarterback in the NFC.

But even the line and Brees weren't the biggest bolts from the blue on the team.

How about Marques Colston, a seventh-round pick who was a converted tight end and turned out to be the team's top target? How about the defense? With a number of castoffs, such as Scott Fujita, Scott Shanle, Mark Simoneau, Hollis Thomas, and Omar Stoutmire, who could have thought they would be halfway decent?

Quite literally, everything went right for the Saints in 2006. I haven't even touched upon Reggie Bush, or Deuce McAllister, who also was recovering from a major injury.

But one thing you have to understand is that "getting all the breaks" is usually a credit to a shrewd front office, followed by a bright coaching staff. Luck is part of it, but not as much as the latter point.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Offensive Game-Planning

What might go somewhat unnoticed from last season was just how good of a game-plan the Saints' coaching staff concocted each and every week.

Week 1 of the season — a crucial week for any losing team who is trying to build a winning foundation — the Saints come out and run the ball 37 times against the Cleveland Browns. Sean Payton and his coaching staff looked at the 2005 statistics and highlighted the fact that the Browns finished with the 30th ranked rushing defense.

In Week 2, just when you thought the Saints would continue with their run-heavy tendencies, they come out pass-happy at Lambeau Field.

In Week 1, the Green Bay Packers played the Chicago Bears, but held the Bears to only 109 rushing yards on 36 attempts. But the Packers' pass defense was exploited in Week 1 as Rex Grossman was 18-of-26 for 262 yards. So Payton and his staff followed that model and Brees put the ball in the air 41 times for 353 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. The Saints only rushed the ball 18 times in Week 2.

Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons, the Saints caught a few bounces on special teams, which helped them to an early lead. With a dominant defensive performance, the Saints simply had to manage the game. Brees threw for 191 yards, while the ground game was used 33 times.

After watching the Carolina Panthers' run defense reassert themselves in Week 2 and 3, after opening up for 252 rushing yards to the Falcons in Week 1, the Saints once again came in with a sharp offensive game plan. They avoided the run and went straight to the pass.

Brees was 28-of-38 for 349 yards and a touchdown.

Against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints used quick passes to counter-act the Eagles aggressive defense.

Each week, the Saints had a great offensive game plan and you can count on that again in 2007.

Can The Saints Build On Last Season?

You might the think the obvious answer is yes, but just ask the Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, or the New York Giants.

The pieces are in place and it is difficult envisioning this offense declining in any way, particularly since Reggie Bush and Colston are a year older. But the key for the Saints to make it deeper in the playoffs will be the play of their defense. While it was fine last season, they won't be as good this year. They feasted off of the team confidence and overachieved.

You have to remember one thing: the Saints only played three teams with a winning record last year. Given their turnaround, their schedule is going to get tougher.

The Saints gave up 128.9 rushing yards per game in the regular season, but in two playoff games, pushed their average to 159.

To be quite frank, their linebacking could get badly exposed this year. Shanle, Fujita, and Simoneau are all marginal talents.

The Saints don't have a great defensive line by any means, but with Charles Grant and Will Smith on the ends, they can always generate pressure. Keep in mind that both guys were playing for contracts last year and now have their long-term security, which means you can expect a dip in production.

At cornerback, Mike McKenzie is inconsistent and Fred Thomas got picked on more and more as the season went. Free agent acquisition Jason David isn't exactly Ty Law. He'll start and will be an upgrade over Thomas, but maybe not by much.

Are They Among the NFC's Best?

The Saints will be back as a playoff contender, mostly because of their offense.

Brees will have more weapons to work with (Robert Meachem, David Patten, Eric Johnson) and there is already evidence of him making sub par wideouts look good (Terrence Copper).

But Bush and Colston need to keep developing if this team is to be a serious contender.

This offense will work fluidly regardless, simply because Payton is such a sharp offensive mind and will expose the opposing team's weaknesses, but for this team to be a real Super Bowl contender, they have to be great on offense and that puts the spotlight on those two sophomores.

The defense simply isn't as talented and will be tested much more rigorously with a tougher schedule in place, starting Week 1 in Indianapolis.

The Trend Of Receiving Running Backs

Bush may have received the most attention in this role, but the new trend in the NFL is running backs who can be split out and make things happen in the passing game.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been using Brian Westbrook in this role, but performances by Maurice Jones-Drew, Jerome Harrison, Leon Washington, and Bush are making this into quite the hot commodity.

For the Saints, with Bush and Deuce McAllister in the same backfield, opposing defense have to respect a lot of action closer to the line of scrimmage, which opens up quite a few lanes in the passing game.

Biggest Weakness: Defense — I'm not convinced their defense will hold up against tougher opponents. They lack depth at corner and it's hard to get excited about their linebacking corps.

Offensive X-Factor: Drew Brees — Put it this way: without Bush, this offense still functions; without Brees: this offense is nothing.

Defensive X-Factor: Safeties — The Saints have a good, deep rotation of safeties that need to make plays both in the passing game and running game.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Don't count me in as one of the guys that will be reaching for Marques Colston. Sure, he had an outstanding rookie campaign, but so did Michael Clayton. All right, so he's probably not Michael Clayton, but he's not going to surprise anyone this season.

Colston also has to deal with the fact that the Saints spread the ball around and have picked up more targets. The addition of tight end Eric Johnson isn't huge, but it could pull away a touchdown or two in the red zone. Johnson has been Brees' favorite target in the red zone in training camp.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 23

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Gordon — On lap 190, Gordon was cruising, unable to catch leader Kurt Busch, but with a sure top-10 in hand when he was spun by Matt Kenseth. Gordon ended up in the infield, soaked by two days of rain, and was briefly stuck before working his way out of the quagmire. Gordon finished 27th, and had his insurmountable 344-point lead trimmed to a still insurmountable lead of 276.

"Unlike last week at Watkins Glen," says Gordon, "I actually have someone to blame for this spin. Her name is Matt Kenseth. Yeah, I know. I had tire going down, but you would think a one-time champ like Kenseth would give a four-time champ a little more time to get out of the way. The last time Kenseth spun me, he got a shove for his efforts. That took place in Bristol, and what do you know? Bristol is next on the schedule. I've got a new nickname. Call me the 'Washing Machine,' 'cause I'm on spin cycle. And Matt thought his confrontation last week with a rogue autograph seeker was unpleasant."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin scored his 10th top-five finish of the year with a fifth in the rain-delayed 3M Performance 400 in Michigan. Hamlin is now 276 points behind Nextel Cup points leader Jeff Gordon, and has officially clinched a spot in the Chase.

"There's nothing more boring than sitting around for two days waiting for the rain to stop," says Hamlin. "Check that. There's one thing more boring: a Kevin Harvick/Juan Montoya standoff. Anyway, some of the monotony was broken up when Robbie Gordon declared himself the winner on Monday."

3. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished a solid 10th in Michigan, but was unable to challenge for the win. Stewart and crew just couldn't get the Home Depot dialed in correctly, despite several adjustments, and settled for Stewart's 15th top-10 finish of the year. The result inched Stewart closer to clinching a spot in the Chase. With a 512-point lead over 13th in the points, Stewart simply needs to leave Bristol with a 391-point cushion.

"In other words," says Stewart, "I just need to leave Bristol. That sounds so easy, I think a caveman could do it. And cavemen shouldn't take that as an affront to their intelligence. I'd say cavemen are pretty darn smart if they can convince television executives to give them their own show based on a few popular car insurance commercials. But just to be safe and not offend cavemen, I'll revise my original statement. Leaving Bristol with a 391-point lead: so easy, a Ray Evernham driver could do it."

4. Matt Kenseth — Trailing Jeff Gordon on lap 190, Kenseth nudged the slower No. 24 car, sending Gordon's Chevrolet spinning into the muddy infield. Upon righting his car, Gordon communicated on his radio that he was "letting Kenseth pass" and "Kenseth lost patience."

"Gordon's right on that account," says Kenseth. "I didn't have the patience — to wait for Gordon to take the lead and spin with two laps remaining. But you've got to love my timing. There's nothing like a feud heading to Bristol, where relationships are as strained as racing lanes. You know, they call the track at Bristol the 'Hemorrhoid'; expect flare-ups."

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson welcomed back crew chief Chad Knaus from suspension with a strong third-place result in Michigan. Knaus was suspended six races for rules infractions back in June at Sonoma. Johnson now stands sixth in the points, 512 out of first.

"It's great to have Chad back for the stretch run," says Johnson, examining the title to some swampland in Florida, just sold to him by Knaus. "I trust Chad's ability to make the tough calls, like convincing the team that 3/8 of an inch is actually ¼ inch."

6. Kurt Busch — Busch won for the second time in three races, taking the 3M Performance 400 by leading 92 of 203 laps. Busch remained in the 12th spot in the points, but increased his lead over 13th from 96 to 163.

"It was a great week for the Busch brothers," says Busch. "First, Kyle signs with Joe Gibbs Racing, then I give Roger Penske Racing its second win of the season. That's two legends right there, and Gibbs and Penske are no slouches, either. More importantly, that was my second win, behind only Gordon, Johnson, and Stewart. So, should I make the Chase, I'll be right up top with the big boys."

7. Kyle Busch — With the hoopla of the announcement to join Joe Gibbs Racing next year behind him, Busch finished 13th at Michigan, which held his points position of eighth. He is likely to join current teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, and future teammates Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin, when the Chase starts in three weeks in New Hampshire.

"Now, there's only one major ride up in the air," says Busch. "Who will DEI sign to fill the position vacated by Dale Earnhardt, Jr.? I hear Teresa Earnhardt isn't too picky about that. She has only one criteria: the new driver can't be a stepson."

8. Carl Edwards — With two days of rain washing away rubber buildup on the track, Edwards struggled with the grip and handling of the No. 99 Ford, but forged a top-10 finish anyway, coming home seventh.

"Pretty impressive," says Edwards, "considering I have a dislocated left thumb. Maybe with another dislocated thumb, and a broken ankle to boot, those Busch Series drivers would have a chance catching me and my 700-point lead. Luckily, Kevin Harvick's raced in seven fewer races. He's a busy man, what with all the Cup races and Montoya-bashing."

9. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex solidified his Chase position with a second in Michigan, which held his spot of 11th in the points. His lead over 13th place is a relatively safe 196 points, and he should easily qualify for the Chase, barring a disaster.

"Hey, disasters happen," says Truex, "especially to DEI engines. It's a crying shame that Teresa Earnhardt won't let Dale, Jr. take the No. 8 with him to Hendrick. Soon, there will be no more 'D' and 'E' in DEI, but there will always be an '8' in 'hate.'"

10. Jeff Burton — Burton finished 14th in Michigan, the highest among his Richard Childress Racing teammates. He dropped one spot in the points to seventh, a week after dropping two place after his 40th at Watkins Glen.

"I know it looks like I'm going through a cold spell," says Burton, "but don't count me out of the title chase just yet. I'm fully focused on the Chase, as are most of my teammates. Now, if I could just get Kevin Harvick to drop his fixation on criticizing Juan Montoya's driving, them we'd all be on the same page."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:36 AM | Comments (0)

Is WTA in Middle East a Mistake?

I don't often take the time to comment on what other colleagues write, but my compatriot Peter Bodo over at Tennis.com and Peter Bodo's TennisWorld blog wrote a column that just got my proverbial goat. I'll paraphrase it here, but basically he said that the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour is stupid to move the season-ending championship to Doha, Qatar and then on to Istanbul, Turkey. I have lamented the move of professional tennis away from the North American continent for a while now, but I cannot disagree with Pete more.

WTA Tour CEO Larry Scott has done miracles for the women's tour. (Yes, Larry, I still think you took my job away from me, but I'm over that now.) From a splintered tour who lost its longest and biggest sponsor and had no clear direction, the WTA Tour is now a thriving (financially) tour with great interest. The stories in women's tennis have shifted away from the American players to a much more global spectrum. Just about every tennis writer this year has written about the rise of the Serbians and Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic are becoming media darlings. Can you blame Mr. Scott and Sony Ericsson for moving the tournament to a place that is closer to the hotbed of tennis right now? I can't.

Peter Bodo tries to make the case that there are still great American and "developed nations" locations for such a season-ending championship. I guess my left coast friend has forgotten how pathetic the attendance at the Staples Center was just a few years ago. There was barely anyone in the stands for the early round robin matches, and while it appeared to be packed for the final two matches, the arena was sparsely populated in reality.

California is still a hotbed of tennis. Los Angeles is still loaded with celebrities and movie moguls who just love sporting events like these. If the WTA Tour couldn't really make it a go there, why does Mr. Bodo think that it would fare better anywhere else? (I'll say maybe New York, but even there, the last few years the early rounds were never filled to capacity.) I know this much, if nobody is going to show up for the tournament anyway, why not go for the money? I would.

The "global media" that Pete talks about in his column that he says won't travel to Qatar to write about the tournament and women's tennis doesn't exist. Tennis writers like myself, Pete, Mert Ertunga, and Ricky Dimon are in the minority. The big media outlets now use AP reports for the majority of their tennis stories. Since there are few tennis-only writers with the big newspapers, tennis coverage is just about nil anyway. The "global media" only travels to the four majors and rarely cover any tennis outside of Wimbledon, the French Open, the Australian Open, and the U.S. Open.

I have been to several smaller tournaments recently and don't see much of a media presence. In New Haven right now, there is a joint ATP and WTA tournament going on and so far my local papers barely mention it. The Roger Federer/James Blake final in Cincinnati was a back pages story. So, I have to ask, does global media coverage really matter anyway?

I'm not sure if the move of the tournament to Doha and Istanbul, with their Islamic traditions and dress rules, is the best for the WTA Tour. I'm on the fence as to if moving the championship to Doha will benefit the Sony or Ericsson brands that much, either. But I am sure that Larry Scott has the best interest of women's professional tennis at heart. Women's tennis will not fall off the cliff and out of the public's interest. Tennis has already been relegated to lesser sport status by the media itself. The WTA Tour's gamble on moving the championships to where the money is is a low-risk move.

Peter, if Tennis Magazine will pay for my ticket and hotel, I'll gladly go to Doha and I'll write as many stories a day as my fingers will allow me to bang out on this keyboard. Heck, I just got back from several months in Kuwait and Iraq. Doha would be like a vacation.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:02 AM | Comments (2)

August 22, 2007

Kickoff '07: The 21-Day Forecast

Christmas is coming. No, not December 25. I mean that metaphorical Christmas for every college fan in the country. The thing about it is that it seems forever, from the bowls to spring practice, then until the All-Star Break, time slows to a crawl.

Then a funny thing happens. All of the sudden, time speeds up. Something keeps your attention at work for a week or two, and before you know it, you are staring down the barrel of a manageable week-and-a-half wait until the first Saturday of the season. That's right, we are getting into single digits on the countdown.

So as we nervously pass the time before we finally get that withdrawal curing hit of cheerleaders, fight songs, and student sections, I thought about what awaits, and came to a few forecasts of what was going to happen in the first few weeks of the season.

That collective preemptive yawn came from week one. We all get to watch the equivalent of a 18-wheeler colliding with a go-cart when national powerhouses play the likes of Appalachian State, Youngstown State, Florida International, East Carolina, the Westerns of Michigan and Kentucky, Arkansas State, and Montana State. Wake me when the bloodbaths are over. Honestly, Hollywood couldn't craft a script ridiculous enough to make these games interesting. Even the writers for Battlefield Earth thought it too far fetched.

Ah, but it isn't all bad ... that Monday Florida State plays Clemson. Not bad. But from there it declines into a Kansas State at Auburn, Washington State at Wisconsin hopeless prayer for an upset bid. Meaning the only game truly worth watching will be the one marquee matchup to start the season, in which...

Cal will extract revenge on Tennessee. The Pac-10 fan base breathes huge sigh of relief as SEC fans are forced to shut up for about 1.7 seconds. Unless a blown call on an onside kick enables the winning touchdown.

Week 2 will be better. I promise. How can I be wrong here? But after pasting Youngstown State, Ohio State feels the need to prove itself against Akron. Yeah, like the Buckeyes need to prove state supremacy. It's Ohio; there is no one else there. Come on. At least switch it over to Cincinnati. (To their credit, next year they pick up USC. That will put some spice on the good ole OOC schedule.)

Virginia Tech will not be able to beat LSU ... but they will scare the Jambalaya out of them. The trendy feel good story gets off to an exciting start, as that team everyone feels obligated to root for over a tragedy puts a scare into a stacked LSU (ironically, the 2005 edition of the pity pick). But sentimentality doesn't win football games; talent does. The Hokies are a serious threat to take an ACC devoid of a truly elite team. But not enough to tackle these Tigers in Baton Rouge.

A bolder prediction of a scare: Oregon at Michigan. I know, talk about chicken to pick a scare. But three things. One, picking a close game here in itself is a big upset. Two, I promise, an outright upset is coming. Three, it's my column, I'll predict what I want.

South Carolina stuns Georgia between the hedges. Here's that Week 2 upset. Georgia is ranked, 13th in fact. South Carolina is even being overshadowed by Vandy and Kentucky as darkhorse picks to make noise in the division. But the Gamecocks didn't lose a game in 2006 by more than seven after the second game. Most of the D returns and should be improved, and if signal-caller Blake Mitchell can come back resembling anything near his torrid four-game finish, he and running back Cory Boyd (SEC's second leading returning rusher outside of Arkansas) should be able to do enough damage to a Georgia team trying to replace a number of losses on defense.

After pounding Marshall, Randy Shannon will be rudely welcomed in Norman. Plowing North Texas will not sufficiently get the taste of the Fiesta Bowl out of the Sooners mouths and returns a stacked offensive line, so a Hurricane team already hit with the loss of linebacker Glenn Cook will struggle to stop tailback Allen Patrick. Both teams have issues at quarterback, but at least Oklahoma will have a weapons-grade wideout in the towering Malcolm Kelly.

Other Scrooge like bah-humbugs on upsets: to continue the earlier Christmas analogy, Santa isn't bringing upsets of Texas by TCU, Louisville by Kentucky, USC by Nebraska. But these remain dangerous games.

Utah will take down a strong Pac-10 foe. Oregon State? UCLA? Don't know which, but the gap between the MWC and the WAC and the BCS schools is shrinking, and Utah has its best team since 2004, when it won a BCS Bowl. And I think Oregon State and UCLA will finish in the top half of the Pac-10 with at least eight wins each.

Notre Dame loses two of its first three. That's the good new for Irish fans. The bad news is that by the time Navy visits, they will be 3-5. At best. Thank Touchdown Jesus they finish with Duke and Stanford. But at least the Irish can join in and say...

....At least you aren't a Husky. Washington, after crossing the continent to visit meek Syracuse, they engage on a string of games only a masochist could love. The only silver lining is that Boise State and Ohio State come to them to lay beatings. Then they head to UCLA before returning from L.A. ... with USC in tow. Four games, four ranked teams. And the Huskies are 1-4. Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona will all be favored over UW before finally visiting the Pac-10's Betty Ford Clinic, Stanford.

What? The Cardinal beat the Huskies last year? Oops, never mind.

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

Orel Hershiser? Meet Brandon Webb!

2007 is the year of the milestone. Milestones are being reached faster than the mercury rising in August in Phoenix. Coincidentally, Phoenix may very well be the city where the baseball crowns a new champion. Yes, you read that right. The 2007 World Series winner will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Okay, I know what you are thinking. The Diamondbacks have about as much chance of winning the World Series Barry Bonds will hit his 900th home run. Slim chance, right? You don't believe me, right?

Well, the American League definitely has more talent than the National League, especially if you use the past 10 or 11 All-Star Games. Yet the defending World Series Champions are the St. Louis Cardinals. Last I checked, they were in the National League.

In fact, since the Yankees last won the World Series in 2000, it's been pretty even among the leagues. The National League claimed the throne in 2001 (Arizona), 2003 (Florida), and 2006 (St. Louis). Conversely, the American League took the World Series in 2002 (Anaheim), 2004 (Boston), and 2005 (Chicago White Sox).

So each league split the last six Fall Classics, despite home-field advantage for most of the years. (The Diamondbacks were the last NL team to have home-field advantage during the World Series.) If you use the past six World Series, it is a toss-up over which league actually will claim the Fall Classic in 2007.

As it stands now, the Diamondbacks lead the National League West by a comfortable margin over the San Diego Padres, with the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers not too far back and still within striking distance of the NL West throne. So it is definitely too early to make any bold predictions just yet. Yet, in a year full of milestones and individuality, there is one milestone that probably will not be the biggest news of the year, but may very be the one milestone that will determine if my prediction actually has any substance.

Before I explain why the Diamondbacks actually are legitimate contenders, despite playing in the National League and being one of the youngest teams in the majors, let us have a quick recap of milestones reached and records broken (or possibly broken) in the 2007 baseball season:

• Barry Bonds breaks all-time Home Run record (currently at 760);
• Tom Glavine reaches 300 wins;
• Sammy Sosa passes 600 home runs;
• Alex Rodriguez and Frank Thomas pass 500 home runs;
• Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves king, is first pitcher to have 500 career saves;
• Craig Biggio surpassed 3,000 career hits;
• Roger Clemens earned his 350th career win;
• Ryan Howard hit his 100th career home run;
• Roy Halladay and Mark Buerhle both earned their 100th career win;
• The Philadelphia Phillies earned their 10,000th loss as a team (first team ever)
• Ironically, the Chicago Cubs earned their 10,000th "unofficial win"*
• Placido Palanco set a new MLB record with 144 consecutive errorless games;
• Ichiro Suzuki hits the first ever inside-the-park home run in an All-Star Game;
• Bobby Cox is ejected from a game for the 162nd time, an all-time high;
• Ken Griffey, Jr. needs 10 home runs to hit 600 for his career;
• Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez are both a few home runs shy of 500;
• Barry Bonds may have enough at-bats before October to pass 3,000 hits;
• Pedro Martinez, if he plays, is two strikeouts short of 3,000 for his career.

*One note: the Cubs are on the record books as having 9,960 franchise wins, as MLB does not include the 77 wins from the Cubs' days in the National Association in 1871, 1874, and 1875. The New York/San Francisco Giants are the only other team with 10,000 franchise wins.

With all these milestones and accomplishments, there are a few that will probably wait until next year. Gary Sheffield is closing in on 500 career home runs, but it is unlikely he passes it in 2007 (currently at 479). Many Ramirez needs four Grand Slams to pass Lou Gehrig's all-time mark of 22, but that is also unlikely in 2007, as is Randy Johnson earning his 300th career win, and Roger Clemens earning career win 363 (which would tie him with Warren Spahn for most wins by a pitcher all-time in the post-1920 live-ball era).

With all the attention given to many of these milestones, including a few that are hallowed, such as Hank Aaron's home run mark, there is one milestone that, if reached, may have the biggest impact on the 2007 season, despite the greater milestones that many fans and analysts have focused on all year. While this milestone will be remembered this season, in light of the sheer number of milestones this year, it is very possible that we may forget that this one milestone was earned in the midst of "greater" performances that defined the careers of several future Hall of Famers.

Of course, I am talking about Brandon Webb's current shutout streak. On August 17th, he blanked the Atlanta Braves 4-0, extending his streak to 42 scoreless innings. If Webb does not allow another run in his next 18 innings — possibly his next two starts if they are complete games — his streak will hit 60 consecutive innings, passing Orel Hershiser's mark of 59 scoreless innings set in the Dodgers' magical 1988 World Series run. Webb's current streak is currently good for 12th all-time, as Rube Foster (42 innings in 1914 with the Red Sox) and Rube Waddell (43 innings in 1905 with the Athletics) are the next pitchers Webb will probably pass in his next outing.

Webb (13-8) became the first pitcher since Hershiser to go at least 40 innings without giving up a run. He is also just the 21st pitcher in baseball history to reach that milestone.

In a season full of milestones, Webb's current performance not only makes him a candidate to earn his second straight Cy Young Award, but also may be the one milestone that actually has a significant impact on the success of his team.

Okay, so Barry Bonds passed Hank Aaron on the all-time home run list ... and the Giants will finish last in the National League West and miss the playoffs. Craig Biggio has his 3,000th hit in his final major league season ... yet will not get any hits in the World Series. Alex Rodriguez gets his 500th home run and Roger Clemens gets career win number 350, and the Yankees might not even qualify for the postseason. Tom Glavine earns his 300th win, and the Mets may make the playoffs, and while the Phillies have other thoughts, Glavine's 300th win probably has little impact on the Mets making, or even succeeding in, the playoffs.

The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays are both having respectable seasons, yet it is unlikely that Sammy Sosa or Frank Thomas will lead his respective team to the Fall Classic, or even the American League Division Series. While it is nice that nice-guy Trevor Hoffman is the all-time saves king and first closer with 500 saves, I do not remember the last time a team rode a closer to a championship, even though the San Diego Padres will make a decent run at the National League West title, or even earn the wildcard berth. Ken Griffey, Jr. likely gets his 600th home run this season ... but good luck having any postseason home runs.

Finally, Bobby Cox's 162nd ejection — which one ESPN analyst said during a "SportsCenter" show that they probably should have cut into the milestone game in the middle of the program, the same way they did Barry Bonds at-bat as he approached 756 — raises an eyebrow, but will probably make for a great trivia question ("Jeopardy!") in a few years.

Ironically, the milestones that are farthest from the spotlight are the milestones that may actually determine the outcome of the 2007 season. While Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez are both chasing the 500 home run barrier and fighting for a postseason berth, neither the Phillies nor Red Sox qualify for the postseason due to Thome or Ramirez chasing 500.

Instead, Webb's performance in Phoenix is eerie; not just because he may pass Hershiser in perhaps on of the greatest streaks in baseball, but because he will do it looking the same way Hershiser did in 1988 when he had his streak. That year, Hershiser not only won the Cy Young, his performance led the Dodgers to take the National League West, beat the New York Mets in the Championship Series, and then win the World Series in Oakland as the ultimate underdog to a heavily favored Athletics team. As a team, the Dodgers won 94 games — winning a little over 58% of their games.

Nineteen years later, Webb may pass Hershiser's mark — a mark many believed was impossible to pass — while the Diamondbacks take control of the National League West. Should the D-Backs continue this success, it is possible that they have to get past the New York Mets to play in the World Series. If, somehow, that happens, the D-backs will probably be heavy underdogs to whatever team that comes out of the American League. When Webb reached his 42nd scoreless inning, it was the D-Backs 70th win in a 123 games — which is just shy of a 57% winning rate.

If that is not enough, let's look a little ahead at the D-Backs' schedule. With Webb needing to shutout his next 18 innings, the earliest he can pass Hershiser is during the ninth inning on August 28th in San Diego. Ironically, Hershiser passed Don Drysdale in the 10th inning in a game at San Diego ... on September 28th. If Webb is two throw consecutive complete game shutouts, not only will it be ironic that Webb will break Hershiser's mark in the same stadium on almost the same date, we could very well see the D-Backs make a serious run through the playoffs and into the World Series.

Webb started his scoreless inning streak on July 20th at Chicago. While the D-Backs lost to the Cubs, 6-2, Webb gave up 2 earned runs and 1 unearned through 7 innings. He gave up his last run in the sixth, and pitched a scoreless seventh before he left for the game. Trailing 3-2 when he left, it was the last losing decision for Webb, bringing his record to 8-8, while the D-backs fell to 50-48 for the season.

After that game, the D-Backs won eight straight, including a seven-inning shutout against Florida. During the streak, Webb is 5-0, and the D-Backs as a team are 20-5. Yet the upcoming schedule is tough for the D-Backs. After they finish in Atlanta, the next three weeks include games against Milwaukee, Chicago, San Diego (twice), and Colorado.

While Hershiser had 23 wins, 15 complete games, an ERA of 2.26, and 267 innings pitched in 1988, Webb is not having a bad 2007 season. Despite only 13 wins so far — and he may get to 20 — Webb's ERA is 2.63. He also has 4 shutouts, 3 complete games, and with 184.2 innings pitched, he is on pace for about 250 innings pitched by year's end.

If Webb continues his stellar play, he will not only finish the season with a solid record and a leading candidate for the Cy Young Award, the D-Backs will probably win the National League West, and have a chance to play the underdog role in the same manner that the Dodgers did 19 years earlier.

The idea is not so far-fetched. The 1988 Dodgers had several players in the midst of having successful seasons, including Mike Marshall, Jesse Orosco, Brian Holton, Alejandro Pena, and Jay Howell, in addition to the leadership provided by Hershiser, Kirk Gibson, and Mice Scioscia.

The 2007 D-Backs have their fair share of solid contributors, as well, including Orlando Hudson, Eric Byrnes, Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, and Chris Young. As a team, the D-Backs have a .316 batting average, team ERA of 4.03, and only 88 team errors. They also have something else the Dodgers had in 1988 — Kirk Gibson, who is currently a bench coach, and will definitely experience a case of déjà vu should Webb actually reach 60 consecutive scoreless innings in San Diego on August 28th, and if the D-Backs go on to win the division and the World Series.

All you have to do is believe. Just ask the 1988 Dodgers.

Posted by Parimal Rohit at 11:10 AM | Comments (6)

2007 NFL Preview: New England Patriots

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

If there ever was a season where Bill Belichick's New England Patriots looked vulnerable, 2006 would be it.

As the team parted with stalwart receivers Deion Branch and David Givens in the offseason, there weren't enough weapons to keep Tom Brady content. As a matter of fact, there was hullabaloo that Brady was displeased with management.

While the front office tried a few tricks, such as acquiring Doug Gabriel, the fix proved to be in-house.

At the beginning of the season, every NFL fan wondered how the heck the Patriots were going to get by with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, who was cut earlier by the Philadelphia Eagles. But just as they got by with Randall Gay and Troy Brown at cornerback in the 2004 AFC Championship Game, the Pats got by with lesser parts at wide receiver.

With two solid running backs on the roster, Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, the Pats leaned more on their running game.

Dillon, who clearly lost the speed from his speed and power combination, was the inside bruiser, while Maroney was the explosive outside threat.

The Patriots also switched to 30-year-old Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator in the offseason, but even with the lack of weapons and change on the sideline, the Patriots still scored more points-per-game in 2006 than they did in 2005.

On defense, it looked like the Pats' aging roster was finally over the hill and that their defense would start to slow.

With Tedy Bruschi coming back after suffering a surprise stroke, then the Patriots signing Chad Brown and Junior Seau, it looked the Patriots were finally going to collapse on defense. Not to mention they lost their second defensive coordinator, Eric Mangini, in the last three years and also were forced to play without starting safeties Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison for the better part of the season.

But lo and behold, not only did the Patriots avoid any decline, they actually improved significantly in the rankings. In 2005, they finished 25th overall. In 2006, they ranked sixth.

Like a zone-blocking scheme, like Denver running backs and like Dungy linebackers, you can't evaluate anything on paper. You have to remember the system, the track record and trust that they will once again be successful until they prove otherwise.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Shrewd Signings

By now, I'm sure you've heard that the Patriots, who have been employing the Moneyball approach in the NFL, have cracked open the piggy bank this offseason.

But with a closer examination, the Patriots haven't really changed their approach.

For starters, Randy Moss restructured his two-year, $20m, contract to a one-year, $3m, contract. The Minnesota Vikings just signed Bobby Wade to $3m a year. At that price, would you rather Moss or Wade? Obviously, Moss.

Next, the Patriots signed Donte Stallworth to a six-year, $33m deal. At the end of the free agency period, the Philadelphia Eagles signed Kevin Curtis to a six-year, $32m contract. Once again, who would you rather if the contracts are equal? Obviously, Stallworth.

The beauty of Stallworth's contract (for the Patriots) is that they can cut him at the end of this season, which will mean they have paid him $3.6m for one year of his services.

Through a trade, the Patriots acquired Wes Welker, who led the Miami Dolphins in receptions last year, and signed him to a five-year, $18m contract. Yet another reasonable contract.

The Patriots got an early jump on free agency with linebacker Adalius Thomas, as well, signing him to a five-year, $35m contract with $20m in guarantees. Seem like a lot of money? Not really, especially when you consider Joey Porter, a linebacker considered on the downside of his career, signed for $32m over five years with the same amount in guarantees less than a week later.

The Patriots ended up with Moss, Stallworth, and Thomas for the same price that other teams paid for Wade, Curtis, and Porter. Sounds like a pretty good free agency period for the Patriots if you ask me.

If You're Going To Crown Them, Then Crown Them

After getting by (three Super Bowls in five seasons) with waiver-wire castoffs and now introducing A- and B-list stars to their roster, it's no wonder the Pats are the Super Bowl favorite.

A year ago, they were hoping that second-round pick Chad Jackson would be competing for one of the starting jobs. This year, he'll be lucky to crack the top four in the rotation.

With Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Kelley Washington (who is another under-the-radar pickup), Jackson, and last year's leading receiver, Caldwell, there are now more than enough receivers to keep Brady content. The Pats are also loaded at tight end — even with the departure of Daniel Graham. Ben Watson, Kyle Brady, and David Thomas cover all the bases.

The only real concern on offense is whether the Maroney can handle the fulltime role as a running back. He got beat up last year and has split carries throughout his NFL and college career. Look for the Patriots to get Sammy Morris or Heath Evans involved more than you think.

On defense, the Patriots have infused a lot of talent, as well. Thomas is the big name, but look for first-round pick Brandon Meriweather to be contributing significantly. Meriweather is very versatile and can play safety or corner.

With or without Asante Samuel, I wouldn't be overly concerned. With him, this will be a very sound secondary. Without him ... well the Patriots used Randall Gay and Troy Brown to get by at one point.

Up front, the Patriots have the best three linemen manning a 3-4 defense. Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren are all Pro Bowl-caliber and backup Jarvis Green keeps two of them fresh. There isn't much depth behind Wilfork.

At linebacker, the Pats added Thomas, which should take some pressure off the grayed veterans. Bruschi and Vrabel are deteriorating, but with Junior Seau also back, they should have the two inside positions locked down between the three of them.

It doesn't look like there is a lot of depth on this defense, but it is kind of guised. They are versatile enough to switch between the 4-3 or 3-4 to mask different weakness if need be.

Who Can Stop Them?

The San Diego Chargers won't stop the Patriots. Neither will the Indianapolis Colts, who downgraded this offseason.

The Chargers best shot came last year. Now with a new coaching staff and a secondary that now has to deal with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker, instead of just Caldwell, the Chargers aren't going to stop them.

The lone AFC team that has their number is the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have won five of the last six meetings, including the last three in New England. If you recall, it was the Broncos that handed Tom Brady his first playoff loss ever.

The Broncos, similar to how the Patriots and Colts, just know what to do to defeat the Patriots. The Broncos have a very good team and a better quarterback than last season and they appear to have the best shot at taking out the Patriots.

Biggest Weakness: Inside Linebacker — Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel have slowed down and Junior Seau is their backup.

Offensive X-Factor: Randy Moss — Remember the Randy Ratio? Moss being triple-teamed on each play? Moss opening up running lanes for Robert Smith? Moss taking on double and triple coverage? The Pats may have acquired a future Hall of Famer and it only cost them a fourth-round pick.

Defensive X-Factor: Vince Wilfork — Under-appreciated, Wilfork makes the 3-4 work. He takes on double-teams every play and his hard work rarely shows up on the stat sheet.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Laurence Maroney hasn't had the full-time duties as a ball carrier in either college or in his first year in the Pros. Last year, he took 175 (not many of them for tough yards) and still endured knee and shoulder injuries. The Patriots have used Heath Evans and also signed Sammy Morris, which indicates that they plan to give some of Maroney's duties to other backs.

Maroney is going in the first round or early second round and it might be too high for a guy who is still recovering from shoulder surgery. He will probably be pulled out for tough yardage situations and the Pats have shown they are comfortable using Evans or Morris in that case.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 10:44 AM | Comments (0)

August 21, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: Minnesota Vikings

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

When Brad Johnson stepped in for Daunte Culpepper in 2005 and finished the regular season with seven wins in nine games, the new coaching staff in Minnesota had reason to believe that Johnson still had some gas left in the tank for 2006.

That was a mistake.

As we've seen many a time, a quarterback can succeed in a no-pressure situation, but then fails the following year when the burden is on his shoulders.

The worst thing about the Vikings' six-win season was not the fact that they finished with an ugly record, or missed the playoffs. They weren't planning on making a big dent to begin with. The problem was that, as a rebuilding team, they didn't experience much growth.

Starting Johnson at quarterback meant that Tarvaris Jackson wasn't getting snaps and wasn't developing.

In a group of busts at wide receiver, including former first-round picks Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson, neither emerged as a reliable target in Brad Childress' new offense. No receiver had more than 57 receptions or 651 receiving yards.

The front lines were strong for the most part, although left tackle Bryant McKinnie had an off-year after signing a big contract, but were not as dominant as expected. That was mostly in part to the right side of the line.

The lone bright spot on offense was running back Chester Taylor. After serving as Baltimore's backup/third down back, there were concerns as to whether he could handle the full-time duty. They grinded the hell out of him, feeding him 248 carries in the first three months of the season, which eventually wore him down. He also caught 42 passes.

On defense, with Pat Williams and Kevin Williams in the center of the defensive line, nobody ran on the Vikings. But their weaknesses in the passing game were exploited quite easily. The Vikings racked up only 30 sacks, which clearly indicates that they didn't get enough pressure up front.

In short, a secondary with Antoine Winfield, Darren Sharper, Dwight Smith, and Cedric Griffin won't rank as the worst passing defense again as long as they get some help. This is actually a pretty good unit if the Vikings can generate some more pressure.

A lack of growth in Childress' first season has already burned up his honeymoon time. The 2006 Vikings looked like a team that is poised for further decline and further rebuilding; not a team that is getting back on the rise.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Pass Rush

The Viking had 30 sacks in 2006. That puts them ahead of Houston, Cleveland, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, and Washington — not exactly great company.

As mentioned above, starting right end, James, was injured for virtually the whole season and Udeze struggled, which put veteran Darrion Scott and rookie Ray Edwards right into the fire.

The entire group of defensive ends tallied 11.5 sacks, which is an abysmal total. Aaron Kampman from the division rival Green Bay Packers had four more (15.5) on his own than all of the Vikings' ends.

The rest of the Vikings linemen compiled six more sacks.

Their first-round pick track record hasn't been so hot, which has contributed to the problems.

Linebacker Chad Greenway (2006) missed his entire rookie season because of a torn ACL. End Erasmus James (2005) also busted his ACL (in the second game of the season). End Kenechi Udeze (2004), who had five sacks in his rookie season, only has one in the last two seasons.

These guys are supposed to be the cornerstones of the front seven, particularly Udeze and James, but injuries stunted their growth, and therefore hampered the Vikings' pass rush.

There weren't any superstars acquired to address the pass rush, which means the fix has to come in-house.

Brad Childress Already On The Hot Seat?

How about that for a premature call!

The math is simple: the Vikings regressed in his first season and there isn't a lot of optimism heading into this season.

Nowadays, head coaches get about three years to turn around a program and if the Vikings don't make a significant push in the second half of this season, Childress should start feeling the heat.

The Glass Is Half Empty

If the Vikings were a used car that we were breaking down for parts, here is what pieces have value:

The offensive line is fairly good, especially from center down the left side. The right side is under a bit of construction, but right guard Artis Hicks should be stronger in his second season (he used to play left guard and last year was his first at right guard).

The running game is in excellent shape. Chester Taylor proved to be unspectacular, but very capable last season and the Vikings added first-round pick Adrian Peterson, who is the game-breaker.

On defense, the Vikings have a reliable secondary and two of the NFL's best defensive tackles.

If the Vikings reaped average performance from every other position and made minimal mistakes, they could be a six-to-eight win team. Unfortunately, the other positions will probably drag this team down.

We'll start with quarterback, where Tarvaris Jackson takes over the starting role. He's basically a rookie since the Vikings waited so long to get him into the lineup in his first year. Naturally, in training camp, he's had his good moments and he's had his share of bad moments. For the first half of the season, the Vikings can't expect any sort of consistency from him and should expect higher than a normal amount of turnovers.

What's worse is that he doesn't have any premiere receivers to work with. Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson are the top targets — do I really need to say much more than that?

No opposing defense will trust Jackson and will stack the line of scrimmage in order to keep the ball in his hands.

On defense, the Vikings are virtually the same, but get back Greenway and James from injury. Both players are supposed to make an impact but both are off of serious injuries.

Outside of the return of James, the defensive line, which accounted for only 17.5 sacks last year, hasn't change at all. That is not good news considering that a pretty good secondary went to waste when the Vikings couldn't rush the passer last year.

If all of these points prove to be true and the Vikings once again win six games, expect ownership to take a long look at Childress and what he's done in his two seasons in Minnesota and question whether to bring him back.

The Glass Is Half Full

Yes, the Vikings are starting a rookie quarterback and yes, he didn't get many snaps last year.

But let's be honest for a second: they used Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger last year. Will Jackson be any worse?

The same can be said for the wide receiving corps. The only way they can go is up.

Williamson, who has only 61 receptions in two seasons, has worked overtime in the offseason to prove that he's not a bust. He went to a special Nike training center to balance out the depth perception in his eyes and bought a football-tossing machine and caught rockets from it daily.

Don't forget, wide receiver draft picks take a while to develop. Williamson is entering his third year and should get back on track this year.

The team also added veteran wideout Bobby Wade, who should solidify the slot role, and several draft picks, including South Carolina standout Sidney Rice.

The offense may have been consistent last season, but it was consistently bad. Even if they are sporadically good in 2007, that will be an upgrade.

On defense, the Vikings haven't made significant changes, but they weren't particularly necessary.

The Vikings may have had a huge disparity between their run and pass defense, but the result was that they only allowed 20.4 points per game (14th in NFL). It's not a great number, but they can easily shave a point or two off of that.

With Greenway returning on the weakside, the Vikings will have a playmaker who is excellent in pass coverage. Losing blockers will be his biggest task, but the run defense is solid anyway. E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber will start with him and Dontarrious Thomas is a versatile backup behind them.

On the line, James has yet to get back, but they have brought him along slowly. They need him to make an impact. The same can be said for Udeze, who will be tagged a bust if he doesn't.

But let's assume the best. If these guys comeback and provide 10-12 sacks, the defense will be significantly better. With Scott still in the rotation and Edwards entering his sophomore year, the Vikings should have an adequate rotation.

If all of these things come to fruition, it won't matter how many games the Vikes win in 2007. They will have shown enough positive growth that will allow the franchise and the front office to raise the bar for 2008.

So Which Is It?

I'm sitting on the fence, since I believe it is in between.

Look for the Vikings defense to become a premier unit in the second half of the season. They have a good, young linebacking corps, and a quality secondary. All they are really missing on defense is sacks and they have young prospects (James, Udeze, and Edwards) that are supposed to get them.

On offense, the picture is murkier. No one really knows what they have in Jackson, Williamson, Rice, and Allison. Williamson will be the best player of the group this year, but in the end, that might not be saying much.

Worst Offseason Move

The Vikings signed career-backup tight end Visanthe Shiancoe to a five-year, $18.5m contract. Shiancoe, who never impressed even when he got the starting role with Jeremy Shockey hurt, hit the lottery.

Not only is this too much money, considering not many other teams were in the running, but why secure him for five years?

Speaking of overpaying and securing a half-decent veteran for way too long, the Vikings also gave Bobby Wade a five-year, $15m contract. Considering the last two teams he played for, the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans, were both desperately low on receiving options still didn't make any real effort to re-sign him is a bit of a red flag.

Both of these players are contributors, but are clearly overpaid.

Biggest Weakness: Quarterback — Tarvaris Jackson is an unknown and the Vikes have no veteran backups in case he falters.

Offensive X-Factor: Troy Williamson — What would help Jackson's development is if he had some reliable targets to throw to. Williamson has to hold onto the ball when it flies his way and he has to be a playmaker in the passing game.

Defensive X-Factor: Erasmus James — Simply put, this defense won't be any better if they don't generate sacks.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

If you are looking for a decent defense, the Vikings could be your bet. It seems like defensive points allowed is interlocked with how many points the offense puts up, which in the Vikings case, should be fairly low. The Vikings plan to run the ball and play defense a lot, which will translate into numerous low-scoring affairs. And considering their lack of sacks, they are still a very good option for interceptions. They had 21 picks in 2006, which was the fifth-most in the NFL.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

Will Agassi's U.S. Open Torch Flame Out?

If Andre Agassi had ideas of passing his U.S. Open torch to a fellow American when he retired last year inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, his compatriot successors are not reciprocating.

At 35-years-old in 2005, Agassi went all the way to the finals, a run punctuated by a 7-6 in-the-fifth classic quarterfinal win over James Blake. Then last year, with back ailing, Agassi delivered again. This time, the heroic effort came in the second round in the form of another one-for-the-ages thriller, a five-setter over Marcos Baghdatis. If Jimmy Connors/Aaron Krickstein was once the staple rain delay feature on the Arthur Ashe Stadium video screens, now Agassi has two juggernauts to supplant it.

Ever since Agassi's epic win over Baghdatis and emotional farewell speech after his third-round loss to Benjamin Becker, American tennis fans have had little to arouse their most passionate of emotions. Nothing to shout over. Nothing to cry over. Nothing to celebrate. And if recent Grand Slam results are any indication, there won't be much celebration going on among the USA faithful next week around the grounds of the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

It wasn't all bad at the Australian Open earlier this year, but it wasn't particularly good either. Three Americans made it to at least the fourth round, but each one saw his run end in extremely disappointing fashion. James Blake ran into a sizzling Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round, but instead of putting up a fight against Gonzo's punishing groundstrokes, Blake, in a very un-Blake-like, way didn't even compete. Gonzalez advanced with relative ease in three sets.

Mardy Fish enjoyed a surprising trek to the quarterfinals, but his fortnight ended just like Blake's in that he showed zero belief once he ran into someone playing great tennis. At least that someone was fellow American Andy Roddick, who erased Fish 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. Roddick, however, promptly took a giant step back in his pursuit to take down Roger Federer. Roddick got trounced 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 in what is the most lopsided score of Roddick's 13 losses to Federer (in 14 career tries).

While the American effort at Roland Garros was historically bad, it was not exactly alarming. U.S. men went 1-9 at the French Open in 2006, and this time they did themselves one better — or one worse. Ten made an appearance in the main draw. Zero appeared in the second round. That's right; the Americans were sent home from Paris with no wins and 10 losses to their credit. Should we have been surprised? Not in the least. In fact, if just one American wins one match at the French Open in 2008, I'll wage a celebration in the streets similar to that of the whole country of Italy when its soccer team won the 2006 World Cup.

Granted, how the Americans fared on the clay three months ago has little to bearing on their prospects at the U.S. Open, but it still shows just how bad they were — and to an extent still are — playing.

Wimbledon, a better indication of a player's form heading into the U.S. Open Series, wasn't much better. Just three Americans got out of the dreaded first round. Roddick made it to the quarters, nothing out of the ordinary for him, where he was upset by Richard Gasquet 8-6 in the fifth. Roddick couldn't do much about Gasquet being completely on fire from all over the court, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a disappointing result for him. James Blake was the only other American to reach just the third round, and there he lost to a mostly clay-court player in Juan Carlos Ferrero.

The Americans' struggles this year beg the question: are they playing bad, or are they just bad, period?

Well, they certainly aren't deep. After Roddick and Blake, the consensus top two players from the United States, there is a huge gap. And it's a gap that only 19-year-old Sam Querrey seems interested in closing. Querrey had his best tournament as a professional last week in Cincinnati. He beat the No. 10 player the world, Mikhail Youzhny, en route to the quarterfinals, where he had Blake on the ropes before eventually losing in three sets. Querrey has a huge serve and forehand, but he must improve his movement and especially his net game in order to really compete for major titles. For now, we can't expect the youngster to make it past the third or fourth round at the U.S. Open.

After Querrey, there's little to be excited about. Mardy Fish is the next American you'll find in the rankings, all the way down at No. 51. Because he spent more time spraining an ankle kicking footballs than he did playing tennis this summer, Fish shouldn't be thought of as being anywhere close to one of the best 50 tennis players in the world right now.

Coming in next for the Americans is a motley trio of Robby Ginepri, Vince Spadea, and Michael Russell between 58 and 60 in the rankings. None should elicit any hope whatsoever out of U.S. tennis fans, and if they combine for just one match win at the Open, I'll call it a success. Heck, Ginepri has won just one match since Queen's Club in June. He's won one more match than Rafael Nadal has titles this year. Russell, meanwhile, hasn't won consecutive matches since Indian Wells in March. Spadea has a sizzling 21-20 match record this year (note the wreaking sarcasm in that, but it really is a great record compared to other Americans), but he is 33-years-old and certainly on the decline. He won't be a factor at the U.S. Open whether he's playing well or not.

The only other Americans in the top 100 are Amer Delic and Paul Goldstein. For some reason, a lot of tennis fans think Delic is one of the future American hopes, but I guess they don't understand that he is already 25-years-old and has done nothing of significance yet on the ATP Tour. Goldstein, well, he's a nice guy off the court, but he's in the twilight of a career than was mediocre at best even during his younger days.

In other words, a new generation needs to start following Querrey's lead and take some of the American load off Roddick and Blake. With such a thin depth chart, the future needs to be now for the young Americans I'm about to discuss. Unfortunately, the future is just that: the future. That's not to say we can't get a little excited right now, but we can't expect too much noise out of these guys next week in Flushing Meadows.

The three most notable Americans who received wildcards into the Open are Donald Young, John Isner, and Wayne Odesnik. The other four (Ryan Sweeting, Michael McClune, Alex Kuznetsov, and Jesse Levine) are probably a few years away from drawing national attention and making an impact on the pro circuit. Young hasn't done any of the latter, but he does make headlines.

Young, 18, isn't quite all hype anymore, but he's going to have to start winning matches on the pro tour in order to really deserve it. He did just that in the first round of this week's Pilot Pen tournament in New Haven, beating Delic to win his first ATP level match and end his professional-opening 0-for-11 slump. Two of those losses came at the U.S. Open. He lost to Giorgio Galimberti in straight sets in 2005 and last year somehow took the first set off Novak Djokovic before getting wiped off the court. Young's Junior Wimbledon title two months ago is a very encouraging sign, and his win over Delic also spurs hope, but Young is still isn't ready for the big-time, and I'd say the U.S. Open qualifies as big-time.

Isner, 22, is a whole different story. He led the University of Georgia to the NCAA title earlier this year and lost in the finals of the singles competition before turning pro. What a professional debut he made two weeks ago at the Legg Mason Classic in Washington, D.C. En route to the final against Andy Roddick, Isner took out Tim Henman, Benjamin Becker, Wayne Odesnik, Tommy Haas, and Gael Monfils. Moreover, he beat every single one of them in the third-set tiebreaker, obviously setting an ATP record. He also set the record for the most aces in a non-Grand Slam event since the ATP began keeping stats in 1991 with 144. Not a bad way to start your career, eh?

At 6'9", Isner has the physical tools and the power to hang with anyone on tour, but the reality of it is that he has a lot of work to do before he can become a consistent force to be reckoned with. He will obviously never be nimble around the court, but he needs to improve his movement and he really needs to develop a stellar net-game. For now, his serve will give him a chance to win a few matches in Flushing Meadows as long as he gets a decent draw, but anything more than a third-round showing would almost be too good to be true. Then again, wasn't his run in Washington?

Odesnik, 21, is just now making a name for himself, as he is playing the best tennis of his life this summer. He entered 2007 with zero ATP match wins, and now he has three in the past three weeks. Odesnik scored a very nice win over Juan Martin del Potro in the second round of Washington before becoming Isner's third victim. He picked up right where he left off in the first round of Montreal, stunning Ivan Ljubicic in a third-set tiebreaker. Odesnik could win a match or two at the Open if the draw is nice, but I don't see him becoming a real factor on the ATP Tour, at least not anytime soon.

So unless Querrey or one of the other young guns emerges ahead of their time next week at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, it's going to be up to Roddick and Blake to capture the hearts and minds of the U.S. Open crowd. Neither one, however, is in particularly good shape to do so.

After pulling out of Montreal with a strained abdominal muscle, Blake sprinted all the way to Cincinnati finals and looked good doing it. He rolled over Alejandro Falla and Nicolas Kiefer in the first two rounds and then got some very impressive revenge on Juan Carlos Ferrero, who beat him at Wimbledon, with a 6-1, 6-4 rout. Blake slipped up in the first set of his quarterfinal matchup with Querrey, but he quickly caught fire and turned things around to win in three sets. There was no such gift first set for Nikolay Davydenko in the semis, as Blake dominated the No. 4 player in the world right from the start for a 6-4, 6-2 win.

But just as Blake gave the pro-American crowd reason to hope going into his final against Federer — who had not been close to the top of his game on his way to the finals — he fizzled to the Swiss without much of a fight. Blake had never been close to beating Federer in six previous attempts, but this one just wasn't close at all. While Blake is obviously going up against a player with superior talent, it's the mental block that really prevents Blake from having any chance against Federer. If the two end up meeting in the second week of the U.S. Open, the memory of what happened last week in Cincinnati will stunt any hope Blake — or the crowd — has for an upset.

As for Roddick, well, Federer should be the least of his worries. This summer he couldn't even beat Frank Dancevic in Indianapolis, and then he couldn't beat clay-court guru David Ferrer on Roddick's favorite surface in Cincinnati. Right now, it looks like Roddick won't advance far enough at the Open to even get a shot at Federer, regardless of how the draw comes out. Of course, that's probably a good thing. Roddick is 1-13 lifetime against Federer and zero for the past nine.

But what if Blake and Roddick were playing well heading into the U.S. Open? Would the excitement level among American tennis fans be any different? I'm not sure. I know it's unfair to ask those two to be as charismatic as the legendary Agassi, but I don't think either one would breathe real life into the Open fans even with an appearance in the second week of the tournament; Roddick because of his personality, and Blake because of his past Grand Slam results.

Roddick has his fair share of fan support, but he also has his haters. He's cocky, temperamental, and has never been known to be overly friendly with opponents, ball-kids, or chair umpires.

Blake is well-loved for his comeback from various off-the-court problems and his general nice-guy demeanor. Unfortunately, his results in Grand Slams have not been quite as good as his results in the hearts of fans or his results on the best-seller list (with his recently-released book, Breaking Back). Blake has only reached the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam just twice, the first time — as we all remember — at the 2005 U.S. Open when he lost to Andre Agassi in an all-time classic.

Two quarterfinal appearances for a guy who has been ranked in to the top 10 the past two years and has been a force for much longer than that is simply unacceptable. Blake has also never won a five-set match in his entire career. That doesn't exactly elicit hope heading into a Grand Slam. So while the J-Block and the rest of the Arthur Ashe faithful will want to believe in him, whether or not they can believe in him is a whole different matter.

With just one week heading into the biggest tennis tournament in the United States, it looks like the proceedings will be dominated by a Swiss (Federer), a Serb (Djokovic), and perhaps a Spaniard (Nadal). Even an Aussie (Hewitt), a Cypriot (Baghdatis), and a host of Russians (led by Davydenko and Youzhny) could make the second week of the U.S. Open an all-foreign affair.

That doesn't mean the tennis won't be extremely exciting, but it does mean the atmosphere in Arthur Ashe stadium will almost certainly be a lot different than it was the past two years. It will be a diverse crowd, one that will root for all different kinds of players, and one whose allegiances will be weak and subject to change from day to day.

The past two years it's been a crowd that united as one. It rose and fell and cheered and cried in unison, each emotion over Andre Agassi. This year, there is no Agassi. This year, it looks like the Arthur Ashe faithful will have to live vicariously through the video screen during rain delays in order to recapture the glory of days gone by.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

The Headhunters

Now a restauranteur in Branson, Missouri, Jack Hamilton is considered to this day a hate object because of the beaning of Boston Red Sox star Tony Conigliaro August 18, 1967. The tragedy ruined Conigliaro's career and may — may — have contributed long-term to his premature death. (He suffered a combined heart attack and stroke in 1982, leaving him mostly an invalid for eight years until his death.)

It certainly hung Hamilton with a reputation as a careless headhunter. And it's a reputation Hamilton isn't even close to deserving.

You could begin with Jim Bouton:

One of the dumb things I do sometimes is form judgments about people I don't really know. Case history: Jack Hamilton, pitcher, Cleveland Indians. He was with the Angel organisation last year and played with me in Seattle [minor leagues], which is where I got to know him. Before that I played against him in the minors and considered him stupid, a hard-throwing guy who didn't care whether or not he hit the batter. In the majors I figured him for a troublemaker because he used to get into fights with Phil Linz. Nobody fights with Phil Linz.

Then, when Hamilton hit Tony Conigliaro in the eye a couple of years ago and put him out for the season, I thought, boy, this guy is some kind of super rat. But when I played with him in Seattle I found he was just a guy like everybody else, honestly sorry he'd hit Conigliaro, a good team player, a friendly fellow who liked to come out early to the park and pitch batting practise to his kids. All of which made me feel like an ass.

— From Ball Four

And, you could continue with Jack Hamilton himself, who spoke to a reporter or two in the days approaching the 40th anniversary of the tragedy: "I couldn't take a baseball and throw it at somebody's head on purpose. I don't have the guts. I really don't care what the public thinks about me. Accidents happen. If I thought about it all the time, it would bother me. I know in my heart, I didn't mean to throw it."

The Red Sox commemorated the Conigliaro beaning Saturday night, before playing the team for whom Hamilton pitched when Tony C. went down for the count, the team known then as the California Angels. It's easy enough to understand the grief that still envelops Red Sox fans (I happen to be one) when they remember.

But analysts (actual or alleged) analyse. And if it gets me drummed out of Red Sox Nation, so be it. But Hamilton wasn't within 20 nautical miles of the worst headhunter baseball's ever seen. All you have to do is check the numbers. Those pesky numbers that keep pushing facts in the way of a pleasant or at least a comforting myth. They'll suggest strongly that beaning Conigliaro was every inch an out-of-character accident.

A man who hits only 13 men in eight major league seasons and averages — count them — three per 162 games is not a man who ought to be on any lineup's 10 least wanted list, no matter how hard inside he pitches, no matter how deeply a fan base still loves the guy he felled so notoriously.

There are men who should have struck far worse fear into the hearts of hitters and fans alike when they took the mound. And there are men who did strike such fear but may not actually have been as dangerous as they've been held to be.

It only begins with Carl Mays. You know him. He's the man whose submarine spitter coned and killed Ray Chapman in 1920, inspiring a few rules changes (clean balls in play at all times, the beginning of the end of the spitball's legality) and one harrowing book, Mike Sowell's The Pitch That Killed. Well, now. In 15 major league seasons, Mays averaged six hit batsmen per 162 games (that was how many fewer than Hamilton had?) and totaled 89 for his career.

Early Wynn was famous for having said, actually or allegedly, that he'd knock his grandmother down if she dug in against him. She might have been safer digging in against her grandson than crossing the street in midtown Chicago. Wynn averaged three hit batsmen per 162 games, exactly what Hamilton averaged, and in a 23-season career Wynn hit 64 batters. He probably got the worst of his reputation in 1959, when he was helping lead the Go-Go White Sox to the pennant, and plunked nine, the most in any season of his career. That's four less than Hamilton's lifetime total and four more than Hamilton hit in any single season.

Don Drysdale was actually a case of the inside-pitching pupil definitely outshining the teacher. And just wait until you see the teacher's name: Sal Maglie, with whom Drysdale got to spend one season (1956) as a Brooklyn Dodger. Sal the Barber (hint: he didn't get his nickname because he was a dark Italian who looked like the old guy giving you your monthly haircut) averaged half the hit batsmen per 162 games (five) that Drysdale ended up averaging (10). He also retired with 44 lifetime hit batsmen in 10 major league seasons.

Bob Gibson took no quarter from any batter and he has the stats to prove it, even if Drysdale he ain't in the marksmanship department. He retired with 102 lifetime drills and an average of six per 162 games, his top trophy seasons being 13 in 1963, 11 in 1965, and 10 each in 1962 and 1969.

And, come to think of it, Hoot, the Barber, the Submariner, and Grandma's Little Headhunter weren't even close to the worst of the group. Of all the pitchers mentioned by name thus far, only Drysdale turns up among the top 20 marksmen of all-time. Remember all those clips of Big D knocking or drilling Henry Aaron and Frank Robinson, two men who were at least as notorious for crowding the plate as Tony C. actually was?

Jack Hamilton retired with only three more hit batsmen lifetime than Don Drysdale averaged per 162 games. Drysdale also retired with 141 more plunks for a career lasting six more seasons than Hamilton's lasted. And here's another shock: there are 12 ahead of and seven behind Drysdale on the all-time drill call.

Here come the top 20, with their lifetime plunks, and if you line up the lengths of their careers you may see some weren't quite as deadly as their numbers suggest while some might have been even deadlier. Their plunks per 162 games are in parentheses. I guarantee that there's one name on the list whom you might have expected to place in the top 10 at minimum, but didn't (though he still has the rest of this season at least to move into a tie at least for number ten). And there are two names that may give you a heart attack and stroke at once when you see them on the list at all ... at first:

Walter Johnson: 203 (9).
Eddie Plunk ... er, Plank: 196 (11).
Randy Johnson: 182 (11).
Joe McGinnity: 182 (14).
Chick Fraser: 177 (14).
Charlie Hough (Charlie Hough?!?): 174 (9).
Cy Young: 163 (6).
Jim Bunning: 160 (9).
Nolan Ryan: 158 (6).
Vic Willis: 157 (10).
Roger Clemens: 156 (7).
Bert Blyleven: 155 (7).
Don Drysdale: 154 (10).
Tim Wakefield (see Charlie Hough): 150 (11).
Kevin Brown: 139 (5).
Howard Ehmke: 137 (12).
Kid Nichols: 133 (7).
Ed Doheny: 132 (25).
George Mullin: 131 (9).
Greg Maddux: 130 (6).

Read the foregoing very carefully. Then tell me how a man who pitched eight major league seasons and hit only 13 in his career becomes the most evil human being who ever stepped onto a major league mound, while a man nearly forgotten, but who hit 132 men in nine major league seasons and averaged 25 victims per 162 games gets a comparative pass.

I submit further that based on the numbers two knuckleball pitchers who averaged nine and 11 plunks, respectively, per 162 games could be considered more dangerous than the man who drilled Tony C. (Never mind for now that the knuckleball by its very nature might tend to sail in a bit and kiss a hitter softly depending on the atmospheric conditions.)

Just in case your curiosity has the better of you, Bob Gibson didn't even make the top 50. He's tied (with Chief Bender and Clark Griffith) for number 58. Carl Mays, that murderer, sits alone at number 87. Early Wynn and Sal Maglie didn't even crack the top 150. Wynn is tied at number 187 — with Red Ames, Ray Caldwell, Tom Glavine, Danny MacFayden, Jeff Nelson, and Ron Villone.

And whence the Demon Barber of Coogan's Bluff? Sal Maglie's tied at number 448 — with Bill (Won't You Come Home?) Bailey, Ewell (The Whip) Blackwell, Shawn Boskie, David Bush, Reggie Cleveland, Dock Ellis, Bill Hill, Willis Hudlin, Rick Reed, Allen Russell, Ray Scarborough, Mel Stottlemyre, Bill Travers, George Winter, and Rick Wise.

Baseball-Reference.com's list of the career cone leaders shows no further down than men with 27 lifetime lances. But you might care to note that among the men who finished with a mere 27 were Dizzy Dean, Bill (Spaceman) Lee, Jeff Reardon, Schoolboy Rowe, Johan Santana (pending his next start, anyway), Ernie Shore (the man from whom a rule change stole a perfect game he consummated when he relieved Babe Ruth with none out and a man on first in the opening frame, after Ruth got tossed for arguing), Tim Worrell, and Al Worthington.

But because he threw one that ran in and caught a matinee idol on the cranium in the heat of a pennant race, never mind that said matinee idol was leaning over the plate as was his own habit, having gotten himself drilled five times a seaon over his first four major league seasons up to and including August 18, 1967, Jack Hamilton is considered to have been close enough to Carl Mays's successor as a baseball murderer.

It's time to put that to rest once and for all time. The resting could begin with Billy Conigliaro, who's held for years without a shred of evidence that Hamilton was out to bag his brother. What happened to Tony Conigliaro was a sickening tragedy and an unintended, accidental one at that. It does Tony C.'s memory and Red Sox Nation no good to suggest or to believe otherwise.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:41 AM

August 20, 2007

Rolling the Dice: An NFL Fantasy Draft Story

Hypothetical: you land pick No. 5 in a non-keeper league. Picks No. 1 through 4 are LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Shaun Alexander. Who do you take?

This was my predicament on Saturday night as the first of my three fantasy drafts officially kicked off the season. Last year, I landed the first pick and rode L.T. all season long. This year, no such luck.

I'm not a big fan of taking quarterbacks in the first round, so that takes out Peyton Manning. Plus, I hate him and I don't like picking players I hate. I'm weird that way. The other top backs on my rankings are Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, and Willie Parker. Five feels too early.

I'm a huge believer in Travis Henry as the next Broncos feature back, but ... how do I put this nicely ... this league is the group of friends I drink with. There are a couple of sports diehards, but the general level of commitment is less than devout. In other words, I felt comfortable I could get Henry at 15.

So what do I do?

I roll the dice.

L.J.

The guy has more than 3,500 yards rushing, 74 receptions, and 40 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He doesn't turn 28 until this season, and though he had a ridiculous 416 carries last year, he's still under 1,000 for his pro career after sitting behind Priest Holmes for two years.

Then again, he's holding out with no sign of reporting. His offensive line is the worst it's been in a decade and he's going to have either Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle as his starting QB.

So it's a risk. But it could pay off in a league title, something that's been frustratingly out of reach in this league, even though I have the best regular season W-L record since we started five years ago.

Instead of taking a game-by-game look at Week 2 in the preseason, we'll take a walk through the rest of my draft, looking at the players I targeted and lost, the players I targeted and got, and the players I took in a moment of panic because I didn't know what else to do.

(Hey, it happens, especially when you're the commish and you land the middle spot, giving minimum turn time between picks.)

Round 1 — L.J. I'm going to have to draft big on running backs to protect myself against a Dirty Bird (named after former Falcons RB Jamal Anderson, who, after rushing a then-record 410 times in 1998, held out through the next preseason, then blew out his knee in game two of the 1999 season).

(Oh no. What have I done?)

Round 2 — Son of a bitch! Henry goes one pick before me, so I'm left scrambling. Manning is off the board, as is Marc Bulger. So are Addai, Parker, Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Lawrence Maroney, and Rudi Johnson. Steve Smith was the first WR taken. Tick tock tick tock.

Ocho Cinco.

This is a good time to recap the two central tenets of my draft strategy.

1. Take the best players on the best teams.

2. Take guys who end up on "SportsCenter" a lot. It makes the season more fun (which, don't forget, is the entire freaking point.)

Chad Johnson fits the bill on both counts. Plus, I've never had him before. It's about time I got to root for the guy.

Round 3 — The next two QBs on my sheet, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, are gone. So is Carson Palmer, wiping out the last of the top tier at the position. (Donovan McNabb is also gone. I could see him having a huge year, but I would have waited a while before pulling the trigger.)

Screw it. Build the WR corps. Reggie Wayne. I've had the guy three years running, and he's never disappointed (an average of 82 receptions, 1,190 yards, and 8.7 TDs per season over the past three). Plus, he's clearly taken the No. 1 job, if not the title, from Marvin Harrison.

Round 4 — Time to take value. My RB depth chart is still just a question mark, but I've got a chance to take a touchdown machine at TE (32 in three years as a full-time starter). Antonio Gates, come on down.

Round 5 — I absolutely have to take an RB. Luckily for me, Thomas Jones is still available. I'm not worried about the calf injury. Not only is Jones traditionally durable, having played at least 14 games in six of his seven professional seasons, but he's going into the perfect situation in New York. He's got a quality coaching staff, up-and-coming offensive line, and a decent passing attack. I just have to make sure I draft Leon Washington as insurance.

Round 6 — Things are starting to get a little shaky. I loaded up at WR early, so I can't take Randy Moss (which would have just been a homer pick anyway). I have Gates, so I can't take Todd Heap. I can tell the run on defense is about to begin, but I'm not jumping. Too early.

I still need running backs, so it's Julius Jones. Another question pick. He's the starter and you can bank on him for another 1,000-yard season. My gamble is that Wade Phillips is more likely to give Jones some red zone action, whereas Bill Parcells gave all the TDs to Marion Barber, who went two rounds earlier.

Right after I make the pick, the NFL Network shows replays of Barber scoring two TDs against the Broncos. Damn.

Round 7 — I would have pulled the trigger on Moss, but he's off the board. I'm feeling antsy I'm not going to have any Patriots. I need to have Patriots.

Pats D.

There. I feel better.

(Asante Samuel, get your ass in camp. It's personal now.)

Round 8 — Only a couple of picks until the turn. I need a break. Can't find anybody I think is good value. Still don't have anybody on the Pats offense. Too early for Wes Welker.

Donte Stallworth.

I immediately regret it.

Round 9 — Refreshed, I go into the second half with good depth at WR. I still don't have a starting QB, and none of my backs are sure things. I need some targeted value at need positions.

Calvin Johnson.

Wait, what?

Maybe this is why I never win.

Round 10 — Time to take a QB. Jon Kitna is tops on my list. I should just take him. But I don't trust the Lions, plus I just took Johnson. That was stupid.

Remember the basics. When in doubt, go to the best teams in the league. Tony Romo is off the board, so it's between Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler. Rivers threw for 3,388 yards with 22 TDs and 9 INTs last year. In just five games, Cutler threw for 1000 yards with 9 TDs and 5 INTs. But I just have a feeling about the Broncos. Plus, I have Gates. I don't like having two members of the same passing game.

Cutler it is.

Mike Shanahan, don't fail me now.

Round 11 — Finally, some good fortune. Brandon Jackson, the Packers' rookie RB from Nebraska, slips through. I have high hopes.

Round 12 — My buddy Kev, a diehard Dolphins fan who has had to watch me watch the Pats win for the past five years, starts the round off with an "everybody points at you and laughs" pick by taking the ninth ranked kicker on his sheet, Stephen Gostkowski, just to spite me. Everybody points and laughs.

(Except I'm secretly pissed because I really wanted Gostkowski. Kev knows this. Bastard.)

Anyway, I take Leon Washington from the Jets to cover my Thomas Jones pick. I feel better.

Round 13 — We're into the fourth quarter. This is where fantasy seasons are made. There's some great value out there. I happily grab Drew Bennett, now of the Rams. He's fantastic value for the 13th round. Plus, I live in St. Louis. Might as well have at least one Rams player.

Round 14 — Another great value pick with Jason Witten. I guarantee he puts up more than the one TD he got last year. I may use him as trade bait and pick up somebody like Bo Scaife from Tennessee or Zach Miller from Oakland. Until then, I have the best backup TE in the league.

(Side note: I was secretly happy when I saw Anthony Fasano hurt his shoulder against Denver. I know this makes me a terrible person, especially since I've liked Fasano going back to his Notre Dame days. Bad Seth. Baaaaaaaaaad Seth.)

Round 15 — I still need a second QB and second D, plus I don't have a kicker yet. Screw the kicker. I'll pick one up closer to the regular season once I see how the WRs and RBs play out through the rest of the preseason.

Cowboys. They're always on TV and now I have their starting RB and defense. I wish I got extra points for horse collars.

Round 16 — I'm surprised by how many choices I have at QB. I've got Jake Delhomme circled as a sleeper. Same with Byron Leftwich and Tarvaris Jackson. But I get this sense that I should go with a bigger upside guy, and I've got a feeling J.P. Losman steps up big this year. I'm betting on 25+ TDs, with probably around the same number of picks (14) as he threw last year. The key will be picking the games to start him. I'm thinking Week 15 at Cleveland might just finally get me the title.

So there it is, the 2007 O'Fallon Bourbonators. Overall, I'd give myself a B-. (Never, ever, EVER give yourself an A. It'll kill your season. Just trust me.)

It's all up to L.J.

Oh boy.

Seth Doria is a writer, editor and communications consultant based out of St. Louis. For daily reports on the world of sports, politics, and entertainment, or if you just want to say hi, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:50 AM | Comments (1)

MLB Suffers No Lack of Hypocrisy

Major League Baseball fans over the past several years have not only been witness to performances taking place on MLB baseball diamonds across America, but have also been privy to after-the-fact cover-ups, collusion, denials, and authoritarian control of their National Pastime. And all this in spite of supposed lessons learned from its failures going back to the early 20th century with the 1919 Black Sox throwing the World Series.

But where MLB differs in the late 20th and early 21st centuries from its historic past is by virtue of its yearly multi-billion dollar revenues it now enjoys, enabling it more unilateral power over the game of baseball in spite of the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) and the World Umpires Association (WUA) with which it must collectively bargain.

MLB is given great latitude granted by the United States government, which allows MLB to continue to be the only professional sports league in the U.S. not subject to anti-trust laws, except with respect to collective bargaining with its unions. And it seemingly appears it need not explain its decisions or lack thereof to its fans, employees, or even the U.S. Congress, unless of course subpoenaed, about the "best interests of baseball."

News arose in July 2007 that now former National Basketball Association veteran referee Tim Donaghy was pending indictment by the federal government, allegedly for providing information to illegal bookmakers associated with the Gambino Crime Family in New Jersey, who wagered bets on NBA games. He allegedly funneled confidential information to them on games and personnel while he was actively refereeing for the NBA during the 2005 and 2006 seasons, including the postseason. Donaghy plead guilty on federal charges in court on August 15, 2007.

And in early August 2007, MLB tried to hoist its latest unilateral decision upon the WUA in light of the perception of illegal gambling and cheating ongoing in the NBA by one or more of its officials, especially with NBA Commissioner David Stern's assertions that he thought the NBA had had the best security detail in all of sports. Such has made for nervous Nellie's over at MLB headquarters on Park Avenue, NYC. And although there have been complaints from players as well as from fans with how discipline and policies have been decided by David Stern, there still is a perception of a rationale and accessibility to the NBA's Commissioner.

It will take months for the NBA to come to a conclusion regarding the reach that Donaghy may have had in the NBA and who else may have been involved, if at all, and how new security options will be implemented. But Stern made it clear that he will not react swiftly with a knee-jerk reaction as to the legalities and ethics of preserving the NBA. And that is precisely what MLB Commissioner Bud Selig has been accused of by the WUA.

It has been reported that a letter dated August 6, 2007 from the WUA to MLB stated that the WUA was breaking off talks with MLB concerning its very recent unilateral decision to require extensive credit background checks to be performed on all MLB umpires effective immediately. However, due to the lack of disclosure of how the findings of any investigations would be handled by MLB, the WUA cut off cooperation with MLB until the expiration of its Collective Bargaining Agreement which expires in 2009. The points of contention which MLB was not willing to concede or even discuss with the WUA include:

• "The nature, type, and scope of information that you intend to gather on the umpires."
• "The sources, legitimate and otherwise, from which you intend to collect the information."
• "The persons who will have access to the information once it is collected."
• "The vendors and consultants who will assist you in collecting and reviewing the information."
• "The frequency with which you plan to conduct the investigations."
• "The uses to which the information will be put."
• "The process by which MLB, the WUA, and the affected umpires will address any concerns that might arise from the information."
• "The protections that will be put in place to ensure that the information is not misused or publicly disclosed."
• "The safeguards that will be adopted to ensure that umpires will not be subject to disciplinary or other adverse job actions stemming from or based upon any of the information."

And furthermore, WUA spokesman Larnell McMorris, who also serves in such a capacity for the National Basketball Referees Association, (NBRA) said that the umpires also wanted to revisit their prior discussion with MLB regarding the use of an additional or seventh umpire for World Series games as well as the National League and American League Championship Series, given the need for an alternate in case of injury, illness, or unforeseen emergencies. But Rob Manfred, MLB Executive Vice President of Labor Relations, depicted the umpires' demands as an underhanded way to get an extra umpire for postseason play, again citing that such did not serve the "best interests of baseball" and accused the WUA of not bargaining in "good faith."

While MLB has no apparent problem with waving the "best interests of baseball" banner when it sees fit for public relations purposes, it apparently is not concerned about it enough to ensure the game's integrity in having enough umpiring officials on hand during the crucial postseason. And apparently such has been a previous concern to the WUA which remained unaddressed.

To date, when alternates are required for the 70 MLB contracted umpires, minor league umpires are called upon to pick up the slack. Although MLB umpires draw salaries ranging from a minimum of $87,000.00 to upwards of $250,000.00, minor league umpires, many whom have worked as much as many as 154 MLB games in one season, receive a pro-rata share of the minimum MLB salary. Minor league salaries are monthly, with a maximum of $3,500 per month.

But are not games compromised when replacing MLB umpires with minor league umpires in a pinch? Especially with the use of QuesTec, the controversial computerized technology used to grade an umpire's home plate ball and strike calls. Used since 2001, MLB has not made public the exact amount of such machines used in MLB stadiums. There are reports that as few as 13 stadiums have QuesTec and as many as 23 stadiums are equipped with it. But certainly not all 30 MLB stadiums have the systems.

While QuesTec has remained a contentious issue with MLB umpires as well as many MLB pitchers and catchers, umpires are graded on every game they call behind the plate and then evaluated by the Umpire Supervisor for MLB. Former American League umpire Frank Pulli served in such a capacity prior to his retirement and now former National League umpire Rich Garcia succeeds Pulli.

But questions about the integrity of QuesTec remain. For example, the calibration of QuesTec varies from stadium to stadium and such nuances such as shadows and the locations of stands proximate to home plate can alter the placement of the equipment or change the end result of the scoring. This is noted with respect to curve balls and sliders, which QuesTec cannot accurately discern as the ball may clip the corner of the plate initially, but may end up outside of the batter's box when caught by the catcher. Such would be scored as a strike, yet the umpire would correctly call it a ball.

Secondly, umpires are suspect of only one individual having full discretion to grade the umpires with use of QuesTec as he sees fit, and may not be an impartial judge, being an employee of MLB. And questions also remain about the revenue and financial arrangement that MLB has with QuesTec Systems and the monetizing of such arrangements, which MLB to date refuses to disclose to its owners, players, or umpires.

That brings us to Frank Pulli and Rich Garcia and their own histories with the "best interests of baseball." In 1989, after the completion of investigator John Dowd's report on Pete Rose's illegal sports betting activity, other indiscretions arose. We now know, as confirmed by Pete Rose himself in 2004, that he did indeed bet on MLB as well as on the team he was playing for and managing at the time, the Cincinnati Reds.

But what we did not know in 1989, until it was revealed some 13 years later in a report by the New York Daily News in 2002, was that then National League umpire Frank Pulli, then American League umpire Rich Garcia, and then Chicago Cubs manager Don Zimmer were found to have been involved in illegal sports betting on sports other than MLB, with members none other than the Genovese Crime Family in New Jersey.

At the time, then MLB Commissioner Fay Vincent disciplined Pulli and Garcia for associating and doing business with gamblers and bookmakers in violation of Major League Rule 21 or "the best interests of baseball." Both came forward early on when called upon and satisfied both Dowd and Vincent. "With these guys, there was nothing involving baseball in anything they did. Anybody who doesn't understand that misses the crux of the whole point," said Vincent.

But the aforementioned quote was not from 1989, but from 2002, in the New York Daily News report which stated that Pulli and Garcia were put on two years of probation at the time. It was ultimately kept secret not by one Commissioner but two, when Bud Selig succeeded Vincent. The secret remained in Selig's office for over 10 years and had it not been for Don Zimmer in his 2001 autobiography mentioning that he was also reprimanded by MLB, the secret might still be just that.

Now that the "best interests of baseball" has reared its head again with respect to the gambling issue in the NBA, that which has never been addressed, is why sports betting by MLB umpires Pulli and Garcia was not divulged until 2002? And why were both Pulli and Garcia then subsequently rewarded by Commissioner Selig by becoming the exclusive individuals who oversee the QuesTec System and grade umpires on their calls from behind the plate? And fans are also aware, ad nauseam, about the failed oversight of performance enhancing drugs having been used throughout Selig's administration.

It is evident now, however, as Selig nears the end of his contract with MLB which expires in 2009, and paid him a salary of $14.5 million in 2006, that he measures the success and integrity of MLB through eyes of a CEO of a Fortune 500 Company. He regaled at the beginning of the 2007 season that MLB revenue for 2006 was a resounding $5.2 billion. Yet, Selig's continual foot-dragging on issues of concern to the fans are never addressed unless push comes to shove, such as intervention by the U.S. Congress or the threat of MLB's losing its anti-trust exemption by the U.S. government.

But as long as MLB has benefit of Rule 21 to hide behind and use whenever it becomes convenient, it bears no resemblance to integrity whatsoever. And Commissioner Selig's legacy more than likely will be overshadowed by how he looked the other way and how he may have forever sullied the hallowed records of America's pastime in the process.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:20 AM | Comments (2)

2007 NFL Preview: Miami Dolphins

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

The Miami Dolphins were supposed to be a darkhorse in the AFC, they were supposed to give the New England Patriots a run for their money, and they were supposed to have their most talented starting quarterback since Dan Marino.

Well, "ifs" and "buts" are apparently not candies and nuts.

After an offseason of injury watch that had Daunte Culpepper in a race with Carson Palmer for amount of knee rehab updates, Culpepper ended up winning.

Unfortunately, while Palmer got on the field and got past his problems, Culpepper was immobile and still hampered, and was shutdown for the season.

You have to give some credit to the Dolphins' front office, who traded a second-round pick for him and then a year later, simply cut ties with him. They should also cut ties with the medical staff who suggested that his knee would be fine.

But the Dolphins had a backup plan: they traded a sixth-round pick for Joey Harrington.

That makes two quarterbacks the Dolphins traded for and then released within a year. You can also throw in the Marcus Vick experiment, but I digress.

Harrington became the default starter and although he was better than he was in Detroit, it was clear that he couldn't get comfortable in the offense. Part of the problem is not having a full offseason with the team. The other issue was that his confidence was still low.

On defense, the Dolphins had all the constituents of a playoff team. Their front seven was terrorizing opponents and not only did Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor avoid slowing down, they sped up. Taylor was the Defensive Player of the Year.

The old defensive line didn't break down, as expected, and helped the Dolphins implement one of the top 3-4 outfits.

The secondary benefited from the strong play upfront. They didn't force many turnovers, but corners Will Allen and Travis Daniels provided solid coverage. First-round pick Jason Allen had a terrible rookie season.

The Dolphins had a league-low 8 interceptions and only five of those picks came from defensive backs.

The defense carried a big burden as the offense simply couldn't keep up.

Harrington was inconsistent, which meant defenders crept closer to the line to crowd Ronnie Brown. With an average offensive line in front of him, Brown wasn't able to flourish as many had expected in his second season.

And neither was Chris Chambers or Randy McMichael, who also experienced subpar seasons because of spotty quarterback play.

Without Culpepper and with Harrington proving to be nothing more than a backup, the once-lofty expectations for the Dolphins dwindled in 2006.

A Year Too Early With That Dark Horse Prediction?

So we know what happened to the Dolphins last year, when they flopped at the quarterback position and flopped in the win column.

But now the Dolphins may have secured the position.

Veteran Trent Green definitely isn't the Pro Bowler he once was, but he could still potentially be the best signal caller this team has had in years. Once again, like Culpepper, there are injury concerns. But Green is a savvy veteran, one that could awaken the sleepy production from all of the offensive weapons.

Let's be honest for a second. Chris Chambers is definitely not Steve Smith or Marvin Harrison, but he has played pretty well considering he's had to work with the likes of Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley. Marty Booker, who starts opposite him, is also fairly steady. With a good quarterback, this tandem should approach 2,000 yards receiving.

If the passing threat is present, look for Ronnie Brown to take off. He's already proven to be a solid running back while opposing defenses have stacked the line of scrimmage. In the past decade, only LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Ricky Williams, and Jamal Lewis (in his prime) could deal with those kind of settings. Brown is only in his third year and will benefit greatly if Green can simply keep defenses honest. With Ted Ginn, Jr., the Dolphins have enough weapons to make this a more formidable offense than the Dolphins' fans have seen in recent years.

The only question remains is how will the line perform? The whole front five is under construction and there will be very little continuity here. They will have five new starters.

Vernon Carey, a solid right tackle, is shifting to the left side. L.J. Shelton will take over Carey's former spot. There will be a rookie starter at center and possibly another at right guard, where this is a fierce competition going on. This is a pretty big red flag (uncertainty on offensive line) considering they will be protecting a 37-year-old quarterback who just finished recovering from a serious concussion.

The Dolphins' offensive line coach, Hudson Houck, is one of the best in the business. He's made them overachieve for the past couple of seasons and has his work cut out for him this season.

One area where this team shouldn't have too many concerns is the defensive front seven. A strength last year, it figures to be even stronger this year. They will be a bit younger as Matt Roth is ready to step in for veteran Kevin Carter and rookie Paul Soliai can spell Keith Traylor and keep him fresh.

But with Roth stepping into the starting lineup, there isn't much depth on the ends.

The Dolphins' big free agent catch was linebacker Joey Porter, who complements Jason Taylor on the outside when they get into the 3-4. Assuming he's healthy, Porter will have a big year and will do his best to prove Pittsburgh wrong for letting him go. Although the Dolphins ranked third in sacks last season (47), they only had 5.5 from their true linebackers (not including Taylor) and Porter will help boost that stat.

The Dolphins' secondary is much weaker than the front lines, but since they get help upfront, they can get by with average players. Travis Daniels is fully healthy and Will Allen is solid. They might not pick a lot of passes, but they cover well, which also leads to sacks when quarterbacks can't find anyone open. The third corner spot will be up to Michael Lehan and probably Andre Goodman, when shoulder problems stop hindering him.

At safety, Renaldo Hill is solid while Yeremiah Bell is a quiet playmaker. He's still a very young player who might prove to be the long-term solution at the position if he posts a similar season as in 2006.

The offensive line is a juggling act and they don't exactly have the luxury of protecting an ironman like Brett Favre, but if this unit can gel, the Dolphins won't be far behind the New York Jets in the battle for second place.

So They Didn't Draft Brady Quinn...

Obviously, whatever turned the Dolphins away from Quinn also deterred a number of other teams, so don't fret so much about that.

The other reason you shouldn't be so down is because the quarterback that they did draft, second-round pick John Beck, looks pretty damn good so far.

Throwing Quinn behind this line in a new offensive scheme probably would have resulted in a mess. At least with the Green/Beck situation, Green can quickly grasp the offense, since he is already familiar with it, and hand over the reigns to Beck either later this year or next year when the team is in better shape.

Ginn, Jr. is a playmaker and will contribute more this season than Quinn would have. When you factor all of the weapons already present (Chambers, Booker, and Brown), Ginn, Jr. figures to be more of a threat from the slot or the outside with other teams forced to focus attention everywhere else.

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line — Believe it or not, if they sort this out (and Hudson Houck is more than capable of doing so), the Dolphins can be a nine-win team.

Offensive X-Factor: Trent Green — There is plenty for him to work with, he just actually has to perform like a capable quarterback — something the Dolphins haven't had in a while.

Defensive X-Factor: Defensive Line — This unit was very dominant last year, but now is short on depth. If they stay healthy, the Dolphins' front seven will be even better than last year.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

While his yardage totals have been low, Chris Chambers has 33 touchdowns grabs in the last four seasons. He has been playing with average quarterbacks and even though Trent Green is nothing special, he's much better than Chambers has seen in a while. Expecting 10 touchdowns and 1,000 yards receiving isn't outrageous for Chambers.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:10 AM | Comments (1)

August 17, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

It's difficult to gauge how the 2006 season went for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Herman Edwards arrived and produced a short-term gain, but the Chiefs simply look like they are headed for smaller and worse things going forward.

In a span of two years, the Chiefs have gone from offensive juggernaut to a one-dimensional outfit.

The Chiefs' passing game, particularly after quarterback Trent Green got hurt, became fairly conservative.

Once again — for about the fifth year in a row — the Chiefs had no real receiving weapons outside of Tony Gonzalez, and for a second year in a row, he was forced into blocking to help out the offensive line. Eddie Kennison once again provided his spotty production, but I'll give him credit. At least he is consistent for around 1,000 yards and a steady option each week, which is more than people want to give him credit for.

Unfortunately, with Gonzalez blocking and Kennson, a No. 2 wideout stuck in the top role, the Chiefs' passing game was very limited with what it could do.

The offensive line was in shambles, partly because of the impromptu retirement of left tackle Willie Roaf. He told the team when the NFL calendar changed, but management probably thought he was bluffing and ignored the position in the draft and free agency.

Even so, Larry Johnson plugged away and picked up a lot of yardage on the ground. He basically was the Chiefs offense and took a big punishment for doing so.

The good news was that Edwards improved the defensive performance of a team that was previously horrific at tackling, defending, tackling, and tackling.

The Chiefs found a pairing for defensive end Jared Allen as first-round pick Tamba Hali was on the grind from day one. The tandem combined for 15.5 sacks.

In the middle of the line, where the Chiefs used to enlist the worst talents of the NFL, Edwards found serviceable bodies in Ron Edwards and James Reed. That helped shore up the run defense.

The linebacking corps was a bit better with Derrick Johnson's growth, but they still struggled in pass defense. Kendrell Bell still didn't find his way into the regular rotation.

The secondary was somewhat of a strength as Ty Law and Patrick Surtain were a strong duo, especially considering the lack of help they had from the pass rush.

When you look at the defensive statistics, you figure that the defense wouldn't be this good. But Edwards preached basics with his football team: run the ball, stop the run, don't beat yourself, and execute. A perfect example: the Chiefs defense ranked 16th overall, but 12th in scoring.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Larry Johnson

All right, so everyone wants to praise Larry Johnson for having a great season. He set an NFL record for carries in the season and quite literally carried the Chiefs offense.

But many people make the point that he still thrived even though the Chiefs' offensive wasn't so good last year. That's not exactly true.

In 2005, when Johnson took over as a starter, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry with 15 rushes of 20 yards or longer in only nine starts.

In 2006, Johnson averaged only 4.3 yards per carry with only 10 rushes of more than 20 yards.

5.2 yards per carry is great; 4.3 yards per carry is borderline good.

The yards per carry drop was not his fault, but it is an ominous sign, since the offensive line is expected to be even worse this year.

In 2005, Johnson ran for 1,750 yards on 339 carries. In 2006, he had 80 more carries, but only 49 more yards.

That shows that the Chiefs' running game isn't necessarily effective. What it shows it that they force-fed Johnson in a bulk manner and ended up with a high total as a result.

I Saw The Ominous Signs, And It Opened Up My Eyes

Regardless of Larry Johnson's prospective holdout, there are plenty of concerns that point to Chiefs drafting in the top 10 next year.

Their choices at quarterback: a second-year, untested Brodie Croyle or journeyman Damon Huard, who is making more money than L.J.

Huard will be a flop if he gets the job. Last year, there was no pressure on him and we often see a quarterback come into a can't-lose situation and win, and then flop when there are expectations the following season.

But Huard won't start unless Croyle really messes up in training camp.

Croyle is the better long-term decision, but there will be many growing pains in the short-term.

The worst part of it is that the offensive line in front of him will be among the worst in the league. The Chiefs allowed 41 sacks in 2006 after allowing 32 in each of the previous two years. Last year, Willie Roaf retired. This year, Will Shields retired. Free agent pickup Damion McIntosh was supposed to secure the left side, but sprained his knee and may not be ready for opening week. Brian Waters is still a stud — the last one left — as Casey Wiegmann is nearing the end of his career.

As mentioned above, the Chiefs' running game looked better than it actually was simply because they gave so many carries to Johnson. This year they'll have Priest Holmes back and plan to use Michael Bennett more, but neither of those guys can take the pounding that L.J. can.

The other two backs will look horrific running behind this line, while L.J. will still average about 4 yards-per-carry.

The passing game doesn't figure to be significantly better, either. Finally, the Chiefs addressed their receiving corps by drafting Dwayne Bowe in the first round. But in a run-oriented offense with a raw quarterback and a shaky offensive line, don't expect him to have a big impact.

Kennison is now 34 and definitely in the twilight of his career. Tony Gonzalez, who is still a Pro Bowler, will once again have to block more than he should, especially with a young quarterback taking the reigns.

The strength of this team now lies on defense, which is a scary proposition.

The defensive line should be a respectable unit once Jared Allen returns from a two-game suspension, although he is disgruntled about his contract.

The linebacking corps should also be stronger than it has been in recent years. The Chiefs signed Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris to round out the three spots with Derrick Johnson. There is definitely more talent now — and more ability to cover the pass.

In the secondary, 33-year-old Ty Law is not what he used to be. Neither is 31-year-old Patrick Surtain. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are not grooming any replacements. Depth is also a concern.

At the back end, there are two good projects in Jarrad Page and Bernard Pollard. Both had quality rookie seasons and need to take control of the starting spots this year.

There are a lot of old, decrepit parts on this team mixed with a lot of youth and inexperience. There are certain pockets of prospects for the future, but not enough to say that this team will rebound in 2008.

With a couple of key injuries, this team could easily be competing with the Oakland Raiders for fourth in the AFC West.

Attending To The Defensive Tackles, After Avoiding The Position For Years

After years of simply ignoring the defensive tackle position and inserting random garbage that other teams had discarded, the Chiefs took the complete opposite approach this offseason: they went completely overboard.

First, they signed their own veterans James Reed and Ron Edwards to three- and four-year contracts, then gave starter's money to Alfonso Boone, a career backup in Chicago. Then they signed Jimmy Wilkerson to a one-year flier.

All of this was done in accordance with their draft, where they spent their second and third round picks on defensive tackles.

This team needs help at too many positions to focus so much attention at defensive tackle. How about adding another young cornerback or wide receiver?

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line/Wide Receiver — One of the best lines in the league two seasons ago is now a shadow of itself. The wide receiver has been a consistent weakness.

Offensive X-Factor: Larry Johnson — He might hold out into the season because he knows that this is a two-win team without him.

Defensive X-Factor: Safeties — The Chiefs have two young good ones in Page and Pollard, but need them to make jarring hits and game-altering plays. They haven't had that from their safeties in a while.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Larry Johnson: Johnson has nowhere to go, and probably won't hold out, but he has more leverage than any other holdout in recent memory. He knows that they plan to start a young, untested quarterback. Even with Johnson, the Chiefs are not a winning team and without him, they will have the first pick in the 2008 draft.

Even if he comes back, he's running behind a terrible offensive line without a threat at quarterback (yet), which means he'll have to face even more attention in the box this year.

Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, and even Peyton Manning are better options.

Tony Gonzalez: Contrary to public opinion, his skills haven't really deteriorated. His decline in stats is mostly due to the fact that he has to help out the offensive line and spend more time blocking instead of releasing on his routes. That won't change this year, which means that he isn't worth being the second tight end drafted.

Eddie Kennison: Never a great fantasy option to begin with, Kennison might even drop from consideration as a No. 2 option. He's 34-years-old and is playing with an inexperienced quarterback.

Dwane Bowe: Rookie wide receiver in a run-first offense. Good luck with that.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:19 AM | Comments (0)

August 16, 2007

Tough Pills to Swallow (Part I)

The dog days of August usually mean a couple of things: buzz and heat. Buzz does not refer to that swarm of bees and hornets that have made a home in your flowerbed since June. And heat isn't concerning those sweltering temperatures that made spectating unbearable at the PGA Championship and in several pro baseball cities.

I mean the heat of anticipation for Saturdays over the next three months. I'm talking about the buzz of whether Florida, LSU, West Virginia, and Texas have enough talent to override USC. All part of the annual simmering and sizzling buildup which flows into yet another season of college football.

Thanks to no actual exhibitions on the field, hype, opinion, and unwavering hope take the spotlight. Our discussions are the preseason. From top teams to bowl scenarios, it's all of our hot air that gives the game such a presence. That said, I present my roundtable topic ... my annual installment of the toughest schedules for the upcoming season.

Part one, as always, features mostly the smaller brothers of the Division I-A family. They may be better off in the long run for stepping up against big bro, but they'll take their share of lumps on the way.

7) UCLA

This is the annual "big fish in a small pond" pick. There were many worthy candidates to fill the role. Florida State will go to Colorado and Florida, while playing a neutral site game against Alabama. Kansas State starts the season at Auburn and ends it out west against Fresno State. Even crosstown rival USC has two impressive road tilts with Nebraska and Notre Dame.

But the Bruins edge all the rest out with their combination of home games against the reigning Mountain West Conference champs (BYU) and "America's Team" (the Irish). Add in a roadie at one of the more steady and prolific programs since 2000 (Utah), and Karl Dorrell better keep his team on their toes. Watch out for Utah contest. That has trap game written all over it.

6) Fresno State

Despite last year's speedbump season, the Bulldogs still hold by coach Pat Hill's mantra that they'll play any team anywhere. That doesn't change for 2007, as the other successful program from the WAC gets a chance to show its stuff at two fairly well-known venues.

The first week of this two-game stretch will take FSU to the southland, where the College Station's 12th Man will be waiting with open arms and shock collars as they hope their Aggies provide a beatdown. The next week requires less travel, but just as much fortitude, with the Bulldogs making a stop at cozy Autzen Stadium in Eugene. Oregon was another team that had a disappointing 2006, but a lot of returning talent in a stadium where the fans literally hover over you makes this trip a daunting one.

The good news for Fresno? They actually get another bigger fish to play in Central Cali. After inviting Oregon in last year, Kansas State will come calling in November. The Wildcats might still be rebuilding, but they should be back on the rise (remember, they did beat Texas late last year).

5) Louisiana-Monroe

The first of four Sun Belt teams on this list (that conference really knows how to pick 'em, don't they?), the Warhawks' tough slate is more known for history than the present. They will branch out to teams with storied pasts who have fallen a little off the beaten path lately, but should be on the way back to possible future glory.

It starts with a trip to that eastern "Death Valley" (which, at this rate, might feel worse than its western namesake by the time ULM arrives) for a week two game against Clemson. After that comes a contest against Texas A&M at Kyle Field. And, later in the season (Nov. 17th), Monroe gets to walk into that buzzsaw of hype that is the new Nick Saban regime at Alabama.

And what better way to help these three programs get back on the right track than to take one for the team ... or should I say their teams. Oh, and the Warhawks could also help the resurgence of Tulsa football when they host the Golden Hurricanes to open up the season on Aug. 30th.

4) Arkansas State

If there are two places where you don't want to be a visitor for Southern football, the Indians definitely have them on the '07 schedule. It all starts the first weekend of the season when they take on Texas in Austin. If 90-plus thousand rabid fans isn't enough to get the blood pumping, then how about a six-figure count? That's what awaits ASU when they go to Knoxville for a week four date with Tennessee.

However, the other highlight on the Indians' out-of-conference slate could be looked at as a sleeping giant. If you talk about the more successful programs over the past 10-or-so years, I wouldn't fault you if your answer included Southern Miss. With a 78-45 record, six bowl wins the last decade, and only two non-conference losses at home since 2000 (Nebraska and Cal), this is not a team you'd really want to face, especially if they're in the race for a bigger bowl berth.

3) Utah

One of the nation's surging programs (mid-ranks or overall, for that matter) has the luxury of getting big names on their schedule while competitive enough to take them down. The Utes aren't hiding out-of-conference this year, which I definitely applaud.

Two out of their first three games will feature big boys from the Pac-10. The first game is at Oregon State, a program that could be back on the rise after their fantastic run to end last season. The other is that home date against UCLA, a team that is picked by many as second-best on the left coast.

The juiciest matchup of their non-conference schedule could hit smack dab in mid-season, when the Utes head east to tangle with Louisville. I see this program vs. program tale of the tape as similar to the Liberty Bowl a few years back, when the Cardinals took on another mid-major power in Boise State. With an upset win early, Utah could definitely be 4-1 going to Papa John Stadium.

2) Florida International

It's not enough to be considered the worst team in Division I-A. FIU is looking to keep that status on lockdown with their group of non-conference games. Contests in Happy Valley (Penn State), Miami (no, not Ohio), and Fayetteville (get ready for a whole bunch of Darren McFadden) won't help end the nation's (current) second-longest losing streak.

Heck, with a team that's trying to rebuild talent and its image, even two games against more middling programs (at Kansas and home to Maryland) aren't the best recipe for success. At least the Panthers can be tops in this regard. Well, almost tops.

1) Troy

Like I eluded to last year, Larry Blakeney might be the new version of Fresno's coach Pat Hill. Due to their small stature, they have to play anyone (and everyone) anywhere (usually at their place). Since joining Division I-A in 2001, the Trojans have played in the following locations:

Lincoln, NE (three times)
Miami and Tallahassee, FL
Baton Rouge, LA
Manhattan, KS
Atlanta, GA
Fayetteville, AR
Columbia, MO
Columbia, SC
College Park, MD
Charlottesville, VA

Not a bad list of opponents for a team to be a "puff pastry" against. This year, the list expands a little more. A return trip to Arkansas gets the season underway on September 1st. The fun one comes a week later. A date in the Swamp with the defending national champion Florida Gators.

The second new stop could provide some intrigue, as the Trojans head to Athens to take on Georgia on Nov. 3rd. With the Bulldogs already slated to play conference foes Alabama and Auburn, they could lay claim to owning their neighbors to the west with a sweep. Of course, it could be the other way around if Troy could pull the upset. A home date against Oklahoma State rounds out a well-balanced plate of tough meat for the Trojans to chew through in 2007.

One thing's for sure. These smaller schools will at least add to their own historical legends by playing the "giants" of their game. But as far as cementing popular legend with an upset or two, that's for another day. Say, starting in about two weeks?

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:53 AM | Comments (0)

2007 NFL Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

Twelve wins and a playoff berth in 2005 were supposed to pave the way for a deeper playoff run in 2006 for Jacksonville.

Then again, Jim Carrey was supposed to grow up after "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind." but never did.

Part of the Jaguars' return to Earth was the fact their schedule toughened up. In 2005, they had a number of soft spots that they took advantage of.

Jacksonville looked very strong from the get-go, upending Dallas and Pittsburgh at home, but then came up just short in Indianapolis and an overtime loss in Washington.

Supposed franchise quarterback Byron Leftwich suffered an ankle injury, but didn't properly report it to the training staff. He proceeded to play through it for a game, until head coach Jack Del Rio shut him down.

Without Leftwich, the Jags tried to get by with David Garrard once again, but against stiffer opponents, Garrard was exposed as a fraud.

It didn't help that Garrard, like Leftwich, received no help from any of his passing targets.

Under Leftwich, Reggie Williams looked like he was finally going to shed the "bust" label. In the first five weeks, he 297 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. But he only had 319 receiving yards and no touchdowns after Garrard took over.

Matt Jones, the bigger bust of the two, has struggled to make the transition from quarterback to wide receiver. He did show a pulse near the end of the season, finishing December with 19 receptions, 320 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

Furthermore, first-round pick tight end Marcedes Lewis had a very minor impact in his rookie season (126 yards, 1 TD).

For all the failures of the passing game, the running game picked up the slack.

Rookie Maurice Jones-Drew was the spark plug and shared the load with Fred Taylor. Taylor, who is often ripped an injury risk, he's only missed eight games over the last five years.

While the Jags offense has been inconsistent throughout Del Rio's tenure, one part of the team that has rarely failed has been the defense.

They draft, develop, and execute as good as any defense.

Last season, the Jags lost a number of star contributors to prolonged injury, including Mike Peterson, Marcus Stroud, Reggie Hayward, and Donovin Darius. But guys like Daryl Smith, Clint Ingram, and Gerald Sensabaugh stepped in seamlessly.

The Jags finished with the second-best defense (statistically) and figure to only get better this time around.

Give some credit to coordinator Mike Smith who is probably in line for a head coaching gig soon – or at least a raise.

How To Break The Pattern Of Inconsistency?

Like with most teams when they are enduring inconsistent spells, the trail usually leads back to shaky quarterback play.

The defense is solid all the way around, the running game is a rock, which points the finger in only one direction.

In the past three seasons, the Jags' passing game hasn't ranked better than 19th in the NFL. Without Leftwich performing up to expectations, or avoiding injury, the Jags don't know what they are going to get week in, week out with David Garrard.

But there are three reasons to believe that the pattern will change: it's a contract year for Leftwich (and we all know how athletes not named Andruw Jones step up in those situations), Leftwich is finally comfortable in an offense, and he should have more weapons to work with than ever before.

Leftwich is on the hot seat, but his performance is the only thing that can make this team better than a first-round playoff loser.

New Offensive Coaches

The front office and coaching staff in Jacksonville are sharp and realized this offseason that the missing link in the chain is the passing offense. It has been their main focus since the turn of the new NFL year.

Hence the hiring of Dirk Koetter, Mike Shula, and Todd Monken.

Leftwich has gone through Carl Smith and Brent Musgrave as his offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, but has never felt as comfortable in an offense as he has under Koetter.

Koetter's plan is to implement more downfield passes. The Jags, after all, have a running game that will tempt opposing defenders to creep closer to the line of scrimmage.

Leftwich has openly praised Koetter and quarterbacks coach Mike Shula, who was hired to extract his franchise quarterback potential. That's a change in itself.

Leftwich has responded well and is primed for a career year. But in the passing game, it takes two to connect.

All eyes have been on the competition at wide receiver in training camp.

Former Louisiana State wide receivers coach, Monken, is now overlooking this area for the Jaguars.

The hope was that he would be able to find that "on" switch with busts Jones and Williams, but neither has stood out in training camp.

The competition has helped the others, though, as sophomore Charles Sharon and rookie Mike Walker have looked strong. The latter figures to be among the top three on the depth chart with veterans Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford.

The Jags don't need to emulate the Indianapolis Colts passing game; they need to be consistent, move the chains and keep opponents honest.

With Jermaine Wiggins, along with last year's first-round pick, Marcedes Lewis, Leftwich should have two reliable check down options.

Leftwich leads the way and considering the way he has looked in scrimmages, the passing game should be as strong as it has been to date.

Super Bowl Defense

The Jags' defense has always been good, but has stooped down to its competition on occasion.

But this year, it looks downright scary good.

Consider the fact that it ranked only second to Baltimore in yards allowed, and that was without Stroud, Peterson, and Hayward.

The Jags lost only one key member in the offseason, free safety Deon Grant, who they felt would be adequately replaced by first-round pick Reggie Nelson.

Losing Darius will subtract some leadership, but Sensabaugh has stepped in for him twice in the past to close out seasons.

The safeties are green, but with Pro Bowl corner Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams opposite him, the safeties will have some time to find their feet.

At linebacker, the Jags rarely get recognition as being among the top units, but they should be even stronger this year.

Peterson returns from a pectoral injury, which will push Smith back to the outside spot where he is better suited.

Last year, when Peterson went down, it opened up a spot for rookie Clint Ingram, who finished second on the team with tackles. He has a ton of upside and might push incumbent Nick Greisen, who is a solid player, out of a roster spot completely. Rookie Justin Durant also looks like he has the talent to start from the jump.

On the defensive line, Stroud and John Henderson are the pillars. Nobody is going to run on Jacksonville this year, you write that down in permanent marker. There isn't a ton of depth behind them, but those two are usually healthy.

On the ends is where the Jags could use some more production. But with the return of Hayward, and assuming that Bobby McCray builds on his breakout season, the Jags could be fine. Paul Spicer is a decent a contributor. The Jags need to get more than 35 sacks if they are to become Super Bowl caliber.

This defense looks as strong as it has ever been under Del Rio. Combined with the prospects on offense, the Jags might be surprising a few pundits this season.

Experienced Coaching Staff

There's former NFL head coaches, such as Mike Tice and Dave Campo, there's former college head coaches, such as Mike Shula and Dirk Koetter, and there's coaches who are on the upswing, such as Mike Smith.

As if that wasn't enough, the Jags have brought in Kevin Greene, the NFL's third all-time leader sacker, to observe practice and provide some feedback.

The Jags have made a concentrated effort to fill the sidelines with experienced, savvy coaches that will make sure this team becomes more consistent.

This is one of the best groups in the AFC, which should translate into the Jaguars becoming one of the better teams in the AFC.

Biggest Weakness: Wide Receiver — It still looks like this team misses Jimmy Smith; that might change this year.

Offensive X-Factor: Byron Leftwich — Poised for a breakout campaign. Myself and many other pundits have said the same thing about him for a while now. It's time for him to actually break out.

Defensive X-Factor: Reggie Nelson — Given all the proven components everywhere else, Nelson has the luxury of being the x-factor. If he plays well, this ferocious defense will be the best in the business.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Maurice Jones-Drew, a running back who shares carries with another stud, Fred Taylor, in one of the deepest backfields in the NFL is going late in the first round of many drafts.

Sharing carries with Taylor should at least drop him to round two or three, and the fact that bruiser Greg Jones is back and healthy and LaBrandon Toefield is having a great offseason should also wave a red flag.

Jones, a bulldozer, will likely take goal line carries away from Jones-Drew. And if the Jags figure out how to better use their receivers, that will also cut into Jones-Drew's touchdown total.

Lastly, the Jags have Jermaine Wiggins and Marcedes Lewis at tight end, which will improve their red zone production and take away from Jones-Drew once again. There are better options in round one or two.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:43 AM | Comments (2)

Phil Rizzuto, RIP: Innocence Stolen

Can you think of a better reason among innumerable ones to despise Osama bin Laden?

"I can't bear to look out there anymore," said Phil Rizzuto to New York Daily News columnist Bill Madden, for the latter's book "Pride of October," from the kitchen of the New Jersey home that formerly afforded a splendid view of the World Trade Center until 9/11. "They're gone and I feel as empty as my view."

After a couple of conversations plumbing Rizzuto's Yankee career and memories, the former shortstop and broadcaster released to the sky a pair of silver birthday balloons and lamented "the unintentional symbolism of the balloons and the towers," Madden observed.

"I'm an old man," said Rizzuto, a Brooklyn native (his father was a streetcar motorman) who grew up rooting for the Dodgers and flunked a tryout with them because then-manager Casey Stengel dismissed his diminutive size ("Get yourself a shoeshine box, kid"), "and I've seen a lot. But this ... this has really got to me. I thought I lost my innocence when I went into the Navy. I never thought I'd lose it again."

This sit-down for coffee, cookies, and book conversation occurred just days after Rizzuto turned 84. At one point, after his wife, Cora, reminded him gently to straighten himself up — Rizzuto by then walked with a slight hunch — he spoke of his change of plan on the day the planes hijacked into murder weapons hit the towers.

"We were supposed to go on a cruise up to Canada for my birthday, but we canceled out. No way either of us wanted to go anywhere. Then my daughter, Penny, who works for the Albany County crisis intervention team, called me. She had just spent two days down on Pier 94 counseling all the victims' families. 'You've got to go down there, Dad,' she said, and after talking it over for a couple of minutes, Cora and I decided to go. We didn't know what we were supposed to do when we got there, but the families were so happy to see us, it was unbelievable. We wound up spending four and a half hours there. As always, Cora knew right away what to say. I just told my Yankee stories and they seemed so happy to have someone take their minds off their grief and the awful business of waiting for a death certificate or a body part.

"It was rewarding but so heartbreaking at the same time. I don't think I'll ever get out of my mind the image of all those teddy bears, lining the walls the whole length of the pier. They'd been sent by schoolkids in Oklahoma City, with individual notes on every one of them."

And now Rizzuto's gone, at 89, after a few years living in a New Jersey assisted-living facility and yet cheering up his neighbors with his Yankee stories. "I've lost my beautiful prince," his wife, Cora, was quoted as saying, through one of the couple's three daughters. Yankee fans, and even non-Yankee fans enraptured by his crustily genial persona on radio and television, probably feel likewise.

The legend is that when Bill Veeck (then owner of the St. Louis Browns) ran into objection over his plan to send the midget Eddie Gaedel to the plate, his prompt justification was, "What about Phil Rizzuto? He's only 5'6"!"

Over a decade after Rizzuto struck out with the Dodgers, there he was, freshly returned from the war to pick up where he left off as the Yankees' shortstop. And just a couple of years later, there was Stengel, freshly minted as the Yankees' manager, about to shepherd the team to five straight World Series rings (can we think in terms of a truly unbreakable record?), with the shoeshine boxer as his regular shortstop.

A decade later, the plucky but fading shortstop was strong-armed by Yankee general manager George Weiss into naming himself as the player to be cut in order to make room for veteran Enos Slaughter, whom the Yankees were buying a second time, this time from the Kansas City Athletics, for stretch drive help.

Weiss, who was never the most popular executive in baseball, among his employees or his peers, was roasted duly in the press. Rizzuto managed somehow to hold his tongue, no matter how furious he was, especially at Weiss's patronizing promise of a full World Series share if the Yankees won.

"I walked out of there in tears," he told Madden, "and as I'm heading out the door I see [former Yankee first baseman George] Stirnweiss, who was there for the Old-Timers' Game. He put his arm around me and said, 'Go back in there, get your money, grab your clothes, and I'll take you home.' He took me up to Grossinger's in the Catskills, which was the smartest thing anybody could have done for me. No one could reach me and, if they had, I'd have surely said something out of line, ripping Weiss and Casey. Then, a week later, all the sympathy calls and letters started coming in, followed by the offer from WPIX to do a couple of innings on the air with Mel and Red."

The Yankees' broadcast sponsor, it is said, insisted Rizzuto be brought onto the team. Team leader Mel Allen was said not to have been too thrilled; team second Red Barber may have blanched until he realized one thing about Rizzuto — the chatty now-former shortstop was willing to listen and to learn.

"Barber hated jocks who became announcers," said Larry King, to Brooklyn Dodgers historiographer Peter Golenbock (in "Bums"). "He liked Phil Rizzuto because Rizzuto was smart enough to go over to him and say, 'You're a great announcer. Please teach me anything you can.'"

Rizzuto himself became a teacher of sorts. Derek Jeter credits Rizzuto with just about everything from playing counsel to simple friendship.

But Rizzuto didn't need to be taught about loyalty. Forty years after he was cashiered from the playing roster by Weiss, he quit the broadcast team when he was denied the day off to make Mickey Mantle's funeral. It took a public outcry to get him to reconsider, which he did for one more season.

Rizzuto probably should have gone into the Hall of Fame as a broadcaster. He was a terrific defensive shortstop ("My best pitch," said Yankee pitcher Vic Raschi once, "is anything the batter grounds, lines, or pops in the direction of Rizzuto"), with a reputation as a tenacious leadoff hitter and bunter (in 1950, he earned the American League's MVP by playing way over his own head); he was an excellent team player; four times he led his league in sacrifice hits.

But as Bill James (in "The Politics of Glory," later republished as "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?") observed, he certainly wasn't the worst player to receive the honor. The Veterans Committee that finally selected him for enshrinement (Ted Williams and Yogi Berra were two of the prime pushers) was far more honorable than the Committee that seemed dedicated mostly to getting as many of Frankie Frisch's and Bill Terry's old buddies from the Cardinals and the New York Giants into the Hall as Frisch and Terry could get away with.

As a broadcaster, Rizzuto was ... well, you've heard of the crazy aunt in the attic? Rizzuto was the crazy uncle you didn't want anywhere except right smack in the middle of the living room when the game was on. The uncle whose whacky asides would leave you laughing or reaching for a refill while he suddenly remembered, "Hey, there's a drive into the gap and look at him aiming for second without flinching!"

And he was just as likely to remember it wrong as right, but he was also just as likely to correct himself or accept a teammate's correction. ("Holy Cow, you were right, White!") Rizzuto was probably the only announcer in New York (Bob Prince probably had the franchise in Pittsburgh) who could get away with making mistakes because he was almost quicker to accept correction and to make you laugh about it.

"Long before John Sterling regularly amended Yankees home runs into fly-ball outs," observed New York Post sports media critic Phil Mushnick, "Rizzuto conditioned listeners to wait for his second opinion"

"No local baseball voice ever connected with fans the way he did," wrote Bob Raissman, the sports media critic of the Daily News. "When Rizzuto was at the mike, you were allowed to cheer. And the Scooter was the head Yankees cheerleader. This was infuriating to us homer-haters, but even we understood. Rizzuto was an innocent."

He was until a certain September morning.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:16 AM | Comments (2)

August 15, 2007

Seven Bold NFL Predictions For '07

Here we are almost eight months removed from my beloved Bears handing the Super Bowl to the Colts on a silver platter ... and the wound still stings as if it were yesterday.

Yeah, that Peyton guy is good (if you like 6'5". 230-pound quarterbacks with a laser rocket arm, of course), but remember Da Bears were up 14-6 on Da Ponies before blundering the title away with one miscue after another.

Just thinking about it makes my stomach twist and turn like a Lindsay Lohan-driven car on the way home from the clubs.

But regardless of how deep the cut remains, here we are ready to buckle up the chin-straps, just three weeks away from yet another fine season of NFL football. Indeed, it's time to take your eyes of whatever lingers in the rearview mirror and focus your sights forward onto that god-awful stadium in Glendale, Arizona — site of Super Bowl XLII.

So as we sit here with all 32 teams sitting at 0-0, tied for first place (except the Raiders, who have somehow managed to already lose a game before the season even started), I offer these seven bold predictions for '07.

Read. Enjoy. Write 'em down and take 'em to Vegas.

And if by chance you feel otherwise, let the ridicule begin. You know where to find me.

7) If We Only Had a Schaub

That will be the cry emanating from Atlanta this year as Falcon fans mourn the ill-timed departure of perennial backup-turned-real-solid-starter-in-the-making Matt Schaub.

Pouring a little dash of Morton's in the wound will be the fact that the lowly Texans will have a better record than the Falcons this year. Mark it down.

Houston has very winnable games against Oakland, Cleveland, Tennessee (twice) and, none other than the Falcons.

And for all you math majors out there, you've undoubtedly calculated that even if they win all of those contests, it wouldn't be more than five wins.

So how can that possibly be more than Atlanta? I'm glad you asked...

6) The Falcons Are on the Clock

Look on the bright side, Atlanta fans, you only have to endure one season with Joey Harrington at the helm. That's because come next April, you will have your choice of whichever college QB you want with the first pick in the draft.

Of course, this is assuming Michael Vick never suits up for you again, which he shouldn't because if management has half a brain, they will take the first bag of peanuts offered to them and cut ties with arguably the NFL's most disappointing player in the last decade.

But I digress.

Indeed, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Falcons fans, you will be the proud owners of the league's worst record this coming season.

No exaggeration, heading into your bye week (Week 8), the Dirty Birds will be lucky to have one win under their belts. And that is assuming you can beat either Tennessee on the road (I wouldn't count on that) or a revamped Houston team at home, led by former backup and the aforementioned oh-don't-you-wish-you-still-had-him-at-QB Matt Schaub (who will certainly have plenty of motivation in his return to the ATL).

I'll give you credit and say you win one of those two ... but not both.

And the second half of the season doesn't get any easier with games against San Francisco, Carolina, Indianapolis, St. Louis Arizona, and Seattle on the schedule. The only thing keeping the Falcons from a 1-15 season is the inevitable split with two games against the Buccaneers.

You have no QB. Warrick Dunn is coming off of back surgery. Your defense is atrocious.

For the record, I think the Browns are the worst team in the NFL. However, their schedule is a bit more favorable.

It's no stretch of the imagination to think the Falcons are headed for a 2-14 record. However, I'll give them 3-13 with a fluke win somewhere in the mix.

5) Very, Very Vince-able

Is that even a word? If not, it should be. Anyway, Titans QB and last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Vince Young will prove to be anything but invincible this season and forget the Pacman Jones unending distraction, V.Y. has one person to blame for his impending slide — John Madden.

Yes, you're hearing this one just about everywhere. And yes, I'm about as superstitious as they come. But unlike many of the ritualistic behaviors that fans would like to believe have direct impact on the world of sports, the Madden curse unfortunately has a proven track record.

A look at some of the star's Madden has personally doomed:

Madden 2000 — Barry Sanders on the cover. The Lions RB abruptly retires before the season.

Madden 2002 — Vikes QB Daunte Culpepper misses five games and watches his TD total plummet from 40 in 2001 to just 19 in '02.

Madden 2003 — The beginning of the end of a legend as Marshall Faulk injures his ankle and makes only 10 trips to the end zone, compared to 21 the year before.

Madden 2004 — PETA's future public enemy No. 1, Michael Vick, breaks his leg and misses 11 games. Good thing for him the Falcons don't put their injured competitors to sleep like Mike does his dogs. Woof, woof.

Madden 2006 — A doctor asks Donovan McNabb to turn his head and cough. McNabb fails the test with a sports hernia, only plays nine games and sees his TDs cut in half from the previous year.

Madden 2007 — Coming off a record-breaking 28-TD campaign, Shaun Alexander misses six games with a broken foot and even when he returns, is a shell of the player he was a year before. He scores only 7 times.

Need I say more?

Titans fans, feel free to send your hate mail to the good folks at EA Sports for letting Madden put your boy on the cover.

You can also blame Titans brass for letting 1,200-yard rusher Travis Henry walk.

On that note...

4) Travis Joins the Mile High Club

Ladies and gentlemen, meet the next great Denver RB.

In Tennessee, Henry was part of an offense that was usually behind, usually throwing and usually facing at least eight in the box. And he still managed to put up over 1,200 yards and 7 TDs.

Travis, welcome to running back paradise.

Over the years, in any season where he has started 13 games or more, the diminutive Volunteers alumnus has posted 1,400, 1,300, and 1,200-plus seasons, respectively. Now he moves into a system that has turned guys like Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and Reuben Droughns into 1,000-yard rushers.

Of all the offseason moves in the NFL, Henry joining the Broncos will prove to be the most significant. A 1,600-yard, 15 TD season is anything but improbable.

3) Rex is Headed to Hawaii

Forget extreme sports. If you want an adrenaline-pumping, heart-pounding experience, just watch Bears football.

In his first full season as a starter, Rex Grossman ran the gamut of emotions for Chicagoans, from early season legend-in-the-making, to late season where-is-Brian-Griese-when-you-need-him ... and everything in between.

But for all the criticism Rex received last year (most of it well-deserved), Bears fans saw flashes of something we haven't witnessed in over two decades — a QB able to lead this team back to the promised land.

He started all 16 games last year, posting over 3,200 yards through the air. And while he completed 20 passes to the wrong team, he also threw 23 TDs — more than all but six other QBs in the NFL.

The stat book might indicate it was his fourth year in the league, but for all intents and purposes, it was Rex's rookie year, after playing in a total of just eight games in the previous three years combined.

Whatever you want to call it, Sexy Rexy led his team to a 14-3 record (best in the NFC), and in fact, the Bears lost only one game to an NFC opponent all year — a meaningless Week 17 meeting with the Packers, in which Rex and most of the team phoned it in from the start with home-field already clinched. Not that I condone that approach, but that game was all that stood between the Bears and an undefeated mark against the entire NFC (they ended up 11-1).

Now with a full season under center behind him, there's no reason to think Rex can't improve upon last year's numbers.

I'm not 100 percent convinced Cedric Benson is ready to carry the load at RB, but if the reports from camp are any indication, it might not matter. Rex has completely settled into the offense and is running it with confidence and ease. Add first-round draft pick TE Greg Olsen out of The U into the mix, and Rex is ready to make last year look like a warm-up.

The TDs will rise. The INTs will drop and the Bears just might make a return trip to the Big Game riding on Rex's right arm.

Either way, after this season, you can call him Rex Grossman: Pro Bowl QB.

Speaking of QBs poised for big years...

2) Heeeeerrrrrrrrrrre's Carson

Fantasy owners, thank me now ... or later. It doesn't really matter. But I'm offering you this little nugget — Carson Palmer will be this year's MVP.

Consider this is a QB who passed for a club record 4,035 yards last season with 28 TDs — and that is without any offseason and not much of a preseason, thanks to a devastating knee injury suffered at the conclusion of the 2005 season.

Palmer says his knee is close to 100 percent, and although he plans to return to wearing a knee brace this season, it certainly didn't seem to hamper him in his first preseason game this year, as he completed 7-of-10 passes for 93 yards. And not that I put any stock in the Pro Bowl, but this was also your Pro Bowl MVP. For whatever that's worth.

And don't think for a second Chad Johnson isn't well aware he failed to catch over 90 passes last year for the first time in a season since 2002. Ocho Cinco is primed for a ginormous year. Combined with arguably football's best No. 2 receiver in T.J. ("Put it on the board. Championship!") Houshmandzadeh, the man feeding these two the ball will eclipse his career numbers and etch his name on the MVP trophy.

1) And the Winner is...

Come on, what would a predictions column be without revealing my Super Bowl champion? But I'll do you one better. How about this year's final four (hey, I'm nothing if not a giver)...

AFC title game: Denver 27, New England 21
NFC title game: Philadelphia 24, Chicago 17

Most teams dream of a shutdown corner. Than there's the Denver Broncos who have two after plucking Dre Bly from his NFL purgatory in Detroit.

I really like the makeup of this Denver team. I mean, really like. We're talking the kind of like as in if I was in seventh grade and the Broncos passed me a note that said "Will you go out with me?" I'd mark that "YES" checkbox faster than you can say Clearasil.

Behind the rifle arm and the absolute fearlessness of household-name-to-be Jay Cutler, the legs of the aforementioned Mr. Henry and a disgustingly nasty defense, Mike Shanahan leads the Broncs back to the big game for the first time since 1999 ... and to their first title since that car salesman John Elway was at the helm.

SUPER BOWL XLII: Denver 23, Philadelphia 21

So there you have it. Seven strong prognostications for the upcoming season. Thanks for sticking with me through it.

If you agree with me, consider yourself blessed with other-worldly intelligence. If you disagree, you're either new to this game ... or a Chargers fan.

Eric Anderson is a freelance writer based in Los Angeles. For more admittedly biased musings from the world of sports, poker, and entertainment, visit That's What HE Said.

Posted by Eric Anderson at 11:56 AM | Comments (4)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 22

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Gordon — After starting from the pole, leading 51 of 88 laps, and holding a two car-length lead over Tony Stewart with two laps remaining, Gordon spun in turn one, handing Stewart the win on a silver (non-restrictor) plate. Gordon recovered to finish ninth, but the disappointment on throwing away his first win in over two months was evident.

"Sure, I'm upset," says Gordon. "Not only does this have a huge impact on this year's race for the championship, but the magnitude of my legacy is at risk here, as well. If I win at the Glen, then my fifth Cup championship is looking solid. That would put me three titles ahead of Stewart. Now, with my spin and Stewart's win, he's looking solid for his third title. That would put him only one behind my four. So yeah, I'm upset. But not too upset that I can't laugh at the new set of spinners that my crew put on my tires before they loaded it into the hauler."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished second at Watkins Glen, benefitting from Gordon's spin to chip 22 points from the lead of Gordon, who finished ninth. Before Gordon's spin, Hamlin was looking at the possibility of falling 400 behind in the points. Now, he trails by a mere 344.

"You think I made up ground at Watkins Glen?" says Hamlin. "Wait until after Richmond, the last race before the Chase. That's when I'll really make my move on Gordon, thanks to the Chase format. Everybody benefits from the Chase format, except for the guy leading the points by 300 points after 26 races."

3. Tony Stewart — Facing a practically insurmountable two car-length deficit with two laps to go, Stewart knew it would take an unlikely event, a Gordon mistake, to change the outcome. And that's what happened. Gordon spun in turn one, Stewart breezed by and drove to victory. It was Stewart's third win this year, all in the last four races, and all but guaranteed him a seed no worse than third when the field is reset in four weeks.

"I know exactly how Gordon lost it in turn one," says Stewart, "because I did the same thing earlier in the race. And I'm pretty sure I know what Jeff said when he spun. Well, I'm not exactly sure what he said, but I know it has four letters and it cost him $25,000 less to say it than it did me."

4. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth, still honing his road course acumen, finished a respectable 12th at Watkins Glen, but the real excitement in his day came during a red flag 15 laps from the finish, when a fan jumped a guardrail to ask Kenseth for an autograph. Kenseth politely declined, and the fan was escorted away and transferred to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, classified by the government as an "enemy combatant."

"Hey, did you just use 'excitement' and 'Matt Kenseth' in the same sentence?" asks Kenseth. "That's got to be a first. Anyway, it was quite a bold move by that fan, but it really irritates me. The nerve of some of these people. It's one thing to jump a guardrail onto the track, but to come up to me and ask me if could get Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s autograph? Well, that's just downright rude."

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson scored his second-straight third-place finish, following Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin across the line in the Centurion Boats at the Glen. Johnson remains seventh in the points, 595 behind teammate Jeff Gordon.

"I'm just as surprised as anyone that Gordon missed that corner," says Johnson, who'd like to remind folks that he's the defending Nextel Cup champion. "Some may say it was due to the pressure of being trailed by Tony Stewart. I know Jeff, and that kind of thing doesn't get to him. He is, however, affected when talentless Welsh singers butcher the Star Mangled Banner. He must have been thinking of that when he lost it."

6. Carl Edwards — Trailing Stewart late in the race, Edwards made a last-ditch effort to pass in the multi-turn Inner Loop section. His attempt was unsuccessful, and he took a spin in the dirt before escaping to finish eighth. Edwards moved up one spot to fifth in the points, 560 out of first.

"And nearly 300 ahead of 12th place," boasts Edwards, "which practically guarantees me a spot tin the Chase. So expect to see more daring and crazy moves like that in the remainder of the races before the Chase, from drivers jockeying for an extra 10 points. Which, of course, will inevitably lead to more crashes and more shoving matches. Let's just hope those shoving matches pack a little more excitement than the Kevin Harvick/Juan Pablo Montoya lovefest. You may call it a shoving match, but it looked to me like they were checking the closeness of each other's shaves."

7. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex clipped Montoya on lap 72, sending the Colombian spinning into Kevin Harvick's No. 29 Chevrolet and triggering the confrontation that mysteriously led to a game of "patty cake" between Harvick and Montoya. Wisely, Truex kept driving and brought home a sixth-place finish, which held the 11-spot in the points.

"I can't complain," says Truex. "At least my engine made it to the finish, unlike Dale, Jr.'s. I don't know where his luck's been worse, with engines or mothers-in-law. At least you can replace an engine."

8. Kevin Harvick — Harvick, Montoya, and Truex were battling in the top 10 when Montoya and Truex got together, leaving Harvick nowhere to go but into Montoya. Harvick wrongly assumed that Montoya was at fault and confronted him, sending Colombian-American relations back about, oh, say a day or two. Harvick was able to get his car back to the garage, and he eventually finished 36th.

"I'd like to apologize," says Harvick. "Not to Montoya, but to everyone who expected a real fight with real punches. Most people have probably seen more physical contact at a seventh-grade prom, or in soft-core porn. The real tragedy is that we looked like two bobblehead dolls out there. As if we didn't look silly enough."

9. Jeff Burton: — Burton's run at the Glen ended abruptly when he rammed the spinning car of Juan Pablo Montoya, who had tangled with Burton's Richard Childress teammate Kevin Harvick. The No. 31 AT&T Chevrolet was done, and the impact was so severe that the sponsor logo was knocked clear off the car. Burton finished 40th, which dropped him two places to sixth in the points.

"It was a tough situation for me," says Burton. "Not only was my car totaled, but I didn't know whether to play peacemaker or support my teammate by kneeling behind Montoya while Kevin pushed him over. I hear that move is a sign of disrespect in Bogota."

10. Kyle Busch — Busch joined teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon in the top 10 with a seventh in the Centurion Boats at the Glen. Busch remained eighth in the points, 627 out of first.

"I saw several Centurion Boats at the Glen," says Busch, "but none in water. But that's beside the point, and so is the official announcement of me joining Joe Gibbs Racing next year. 'Official' simply means I put on a suit and read a prepared statement in which I say nice things about people I care little about. My future teammate, Tony Stewart, was nice enough to write the speech for me."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

2007 NFL Preview: Indianapolis Colts

Looking at 2006 in the Rear View Mirror

After a heart-breaking playoff performance in the 2005 AFC Championship game, it looked like the Indianapolis Colts wave had hit its high point and started to roll back.

Following their even-keeled head coach, Tony Dungy, the Colts simply continued to persevere and finished as Super Bowl champions.

There have rarely been any concerns in regards to the Colts' offense, but there was a minor issue at the beginning of last year. Stalwart runner Edgerrin James had departed to Arizona via free agency, leaving first-round pick Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes to fill his shoes.

The tandem passed every test with flying colors and were fresh throughout the whole season. Neither carried close to the 312 carries, which is what James averaged in his seven seasons in Indy.

After Peyton Manning ripped his offensive line after the playoff loss in 2005, the front five kept Manning's jersey clean in 2006. They allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL (15).

The main issues were on the other side of the ball, where the Colts couldn't seem to stop any of their opponents. In fairness, the Colts only lost four games, but the way their run defense finished up the season, there were questions as to how they would succeed in the playoffs.

The Colts signed former Pro Bowl defensive Corey Simon in the offseason, who was supposed to clog up the middle and prevent easy rushing gains. But Simon missed the entire season with an undisclosed injury, leaving a huge vacancy. Compounding the problem was a car accident that involved the Colts' other starting defensive tackle, Montae Reagor, who would also only make five games.

Much of the success in Dungy's defensive scheme depends on the front lines and without their best personnel, the levies broke in Indianapolis. The Colts acquired disgruntled tackle Anthony McFarland from Tampa Bay, who thrived under Dungy previously. It took him some time to grow acclimated to the defense and his new surroundings, but he paid dividends in the playoffs.

Another problem for the Colts was that their top safety, Bob Sanders, was dealing with a lingering knee injury that kept him on a week-to-week basis.

Combined all of the above issues with the loss of Mike Doss for the season, and it is evident why the Colts run defense was shredded in the regular season.

But once the playoffs hit, Sanders was a go each week and McFarland had found his comfort zone.

The biggest achievement for the Colts in 2006 was the fact that they exorcized their ghosts and finally defeated Tom Brady's Patriots in the playoffs. It seemed like the problem was mental — and it probably was — but the Colts battled back from a 21-3 deficit against a team that simply had their number. That put their growth on display, even though most pundits believed they had regressed from the previous season.

The Colts' championship season followed a different pattern than in recent seasons. They had to overcome serious injuries, they didn't finish the regular season on a hot streak, and they didn't win it with defense. Props to them for an improbable and impressive Super Bowl season.

Using Letters to Breakdown Numbers: Linebackers

The Colts' defense has been a linebacker factory since Tony Dungy took over and given their track record, they have always opted to let their burgeoning stars walk and replenish the depth through the draft.

From Mike Peterson, to Marcus Washington, to the latest defector, Cato June, the Colts have always had an in-house solution.

But the Colts may miss June more than they missed the others. Not only did June lead the team in tackles in 2006, he is also one of the defense's playmakers.

The two remaining veterans slated to start, Gary Brackett and Rob Morris, are solid with tackles, but don't produce many game-changing plays.

Last season, in addition to June's 142 tackles, he added three interceptions, two forced fumbles (one recovered), and a sack.

In the last three seasons, June has 10 interceptions, two touchdowns, and eight passes defensed. In that span, Morris and Brackett have combined for 6 interceptions, 9 passes defensed, and no touchdowns.

Brackett only has two forced fumbles for his career and although he is approaching what should be his best season, the fact that he hasn't created more game-altering plays to this point might show that he is just a good starter — not the Pro Bowl caliber of Peterson, Washington, or June.

The Colts should miss June more than they missed the others, but don't fret for too long, they will have a new body in there making plays — possibly Freddie Keiaho — shortly.

Is Repeating the Hardest Thing?

It's early August and NFL predictions are as common as DUI arrests, so here's another one: the Colts will not repeat as Super Bowl champs.

The Colts did overcome quite a bit of adversity last year to make it a championship season, but there are too many factors weighing them down already for 2007.

For starters, they have once again endured a severe blow at defensive tackle, losing a starter for the entire season. Last year, they lost Corey Simon. This year, they will be without his replacement, Anthony McFarland.

Making matters worse is the release of Simon and the departure of Montae Reagor. The Colts are now extremely thin at a position that is crucial to stopping the run.

The linebacking corps also is at a shortage as stud Cato June defected to Tampa Bay.

Brackett is great for tackles, and Morris doesn't let many slip his grip, but neither bring the many turnovers or sacks to the table. Also, Morris has been used as a depth option in the past and with him among the starting three, the depth is shortened.

The secondary did some growing the in the postseason, but outside of Bob Sanders, they are nothing special.

The Colts lost starting corners Jason David and Nick Harper to free agency, which means youngsters Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden have to step it up. Sanders is the veteran of this group and although he is one of the better safeties in the league when he's on the field, he is not on it consistently.

This secondary's statistics will once again look horrible, mostly because of the offense. Teams need to score points against the Colts to keep up, which will force this young group into action more than they would like.

The Colts' offense returns mostly intact, minus runner Dominic Rhodes and left tackle Tarik Glenn.

The latter will be the biggest subtraction on the team since quality left tackle replacements simply aren't readily available on the waiver-wire.

The front office was mocked when they selected tackle Tony Ugoh in the second round, which may have been high for the Arkansas tackle, but at least they have a potential in-house solution for Glenn's untimely retirement.

I wouldn't worry about this offense too much; the same constituents are still present with even more weaponry.

With Ben Utecht, Dallas Clark, and Bryon Fletcher, the Colts have ample tight ends to set up in two-tight end formations. Clark can also split out, if need be. We know about the wideouts the Colts boast and they added a slot weapon with first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez, who will probably take a while to figure out how this offense really works.

One concern might be the lack of a secondary running back outside of Joseph Addai. He will get a lot of touches this year, especially since they plan to use him more as a receiver, as well. He had the luxury of Rhodes last year, which helped keep him fresh and spelled him when he struggled.

There is no question that the roster has weakened over the offseason, but the Colts are not facing personnel holes that they haven't plugged in the past. They have overcome losses at DT, LB, and RB under Dungy. They have endured the rigors of using a very young, inexperienced secondary. The only difference will be playing without left tackle, Tarik Glenn. Expect teams to really gun for them — even more so than in the past — since they are now officially the top dog, but the Colts will definitely be back barking in the playoffs.

Biggest Weakness: Depth — The Colts are thin everywhere with DT, OLB, CB, FS standing out. The offense is fine, for the most part.

Offensive X-Factor: Tony Ugoh — I could give you the generic answer, but Ugoh's role — replacing Glenn — is very important. Manning hasn't had to worry about his blindside yet and doesn't want to start now.

Defensive X-Factor: Gary Brackett — He's been a tackling machine, but with June gone, needs to make more plays (turnovers and sacks).

Fantasy Market: Sell High

There are a number of fantasy owners that are taking a shot with Anthony Gonzalez late in their drafts, but keep your expectations tempered for the first-round pick.

When people think of Gonzalez, they think of Brandon Stokley from two seasons ago, but keep in mind that there are a lot of other weapons on this offense. Aside from Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, the Colts have three quality tight ends and a running back they plan to use more in the passing game.

More than all of those reasons, though, the Colts passing offense — and all of Manning's checkdowns — are a tough learn. Wayne took a couple of years to get accustomed to this offense and Gonzalez will do the same. His production will be spotty in year one.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

August 14, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: Green Bay Packers

Looking at 2006 in the Rear View Mirror

So you were among the guys that thought Brett Favre should retire.

Well, Barry Bonds he is not, as Favre was a legitimate contributor to the Packers and helped them through what was essentially a rebuilding year.

As a matter of fact, he is the opposite of Bonds. Favre, even though he was approaching many passing records, still cared more about the team than personal accomplishments.

After a 29-interception effort in 2005, Favre bounced-back somewhat and had a one-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.

But the problem last season, more than in 2005, was the lack of support he had from wide receivers, tight ends, and the offensive line.

Starting upfront, with two rookies at the guard spots, Jason Spitz and Darren Colledge, the Packers were fairly green at first. But as the line jelled down the homestretch, Favre enjoyed better protection.

Outside of Donald Driver, Favre had a severe shortage of reliable weapons to throw to.

Greg Jennings looked like a stud early on before injuries forced him to fade off in the second half. Without him, Favre grew frustrated with miscommunications and dropped passes from young wideouts.

Even the tight end position, manned by three-time Pro Bowler Bubba Franks and other capable receivers, never provided a safety valve.

The Packers particularly struggled in the red zone, where their efficiency ranked dead last in the NFC.

On defense, the Packers were better than most people might think. They ranked 12th overall and allowed opponents to convert 32.8% third downs (fourth-best).

The Packers spent the previous offseason adding some pieces to the defense and it worked.

They were mocked for signing cornerback Charles Woodson, who hadn't posted a good season in over two years, but he re-paid them with a career-best eight interceptions. The other free agent splash, tackle Ryan Pickett, proved to be a valuable run-stuffer.

First-round pick linebacker A.J. Hawk took a burden off of the shoulder of incumbent Nick Barnett, and led the team in tackles.

The biggest growth on defense was the line, which was really clicking as the season finished.

End Aaron Kampman produced his first Pro Bowl season, and his opposite, Cullen Jenkins, proved to be an effective starter, as well. That pushed pass rushing specialist Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to the bench, which kept him fresh for those situations.

The Packers generated 46 sacks (fourth-best in the NFL) and 28 of them came from the ends.

Aside from a gaping hole at free safety, where the Packers made their one mistake in free agency by signing Marquand Manuel, the defense was very strong last season and is definitely looking up.

While everyone wants to tab the Detroit Lions or the San Francisco 49ers as the next sleeper out of the NFC, the Packers are the best candidate. The Packers won their final four games and boast a burgeoning defense and an offense that can go up from last year.

Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: Tight Ends

While the new wave of tight ends are meant catch 40-yard bombs in between two deep safeties, or take 12-yard receptions and outrun cornerbacks to the end zone, the Packers still rely on old-fashioned safety-valve tight ends.

That was until last year, when those valves broke.

Bubba Franks, a former first-round pick, was extremely unreliable last year, which directly impacted Favre, who has always had a solid connection with his tight ends.

Franks has caught only 25 passes per year in the last two years (was injured in 2005) after averaging nearly 38 receptions per season in his first five campaigns. Furthermore, Franks, who has 29 career touchdown catches, for the first time in his career did not catch a single touchdown pass.

If you are wondering why the Packers red zone efficiency was worst in the NFL, this is one of the major reasons.

In 2005, the Packers' trio of tight ends, Franks, David Martin, and Donald Lee, combined for 85 receptions, 725 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

Those numbers dipped to 56, 580, and 2 in 2006.

It hurt even more last year as Favre dealt with a lack of support from young wide receivers and then had his pillars of consistency at tight end crumble in front of him.

There is no disputing that Favre's best years are behind him, but he is still effective as a starter. What he can't do any longer is take average parts and carry them into the playoffs. He needs help from his receivers, which starts with the production at tight end.

Why The Packers Are a Better Sleeper Than the Lions

By default, anyone is a better sleeper choice than Detroit.

All right, pot-shots aside, the Packers are a better sleeper choice than Detroit because of a few reasons.

For starters, they have players on their rosters with a history of winning. They don't have to learn, figure out, or understand how to put their best foot forward in key situations; they have done that before.

Secondly, their model of success is based on a strong defense that is going to get better.

The Packers have one of the best rotations at defensive end and have a solid interior that will add first-round pick Justin Harrell to the equation. At the second level, Hawk and Barnett are already a solid tandem, but both are young and should continue to get even better.

The starting cornerbacks are a veteran group who compare with the best tandems in the NFL, and now there is a fiery competition at the free safety spot and nickel back spot, two openings from a season a go.

The Packers already have a good defense that will crack the top-10 this year, but by no means are they an unbalanced team.

The offensive performance last year was more of a detour from the norm than it was a trend.

With a strong offensive line once again, Favre, and Donald Driver, the Packers won't be horrible.

They need bounce-back seasons from Franks and Lee at tight end, and they need Jennings to stay healthy. Last year, depth behind Driver and Jennings left the Packers exposed, but all of those prospects are a year older, and third-round pick James Jones looks like he can nail down the third receiving role regardless of what anyone else does.

It's true: Favre wanted Randy Moss and the Packers failed to get him. But Jennings in his second year should be better than he played in the first half of '06, and if Jones continues to impress like he has during the offseason, the Packers will have a strong trio.

That leaves a vacancy at running back, which is perennially the easiest position to fill. Runners are the cheapest commodity in the NFL and the Packers have second-round pick Brandon Jackson and incumbent Vernand Morency to replace Green's production.

Green has rushed for 1,314 yards and 5 touchdowns over the last two seasons; it's not as if the Packers have to replace LaDainian Tomlinson.

The Packers already have a good defense and have a few "what-ifs" on the offense that they are banking on to help make them a playoff team.

The Lions, on the other hand, are a team filled with "what-ifs" — albeit with more potential. They are working with less concrete facts, which is why the Packers are a better sleeper choice.

Why the Packers Are A Better Sleeper Than the 49ers

The 49ers are everyone's sleeper darling, but one reason the Packers may be the better choice is continuity.

The Packers return virtually all of their starters intact and the same coaching staff.

San Francisco has added a number of big pieces through free agency, which will at the very least take some time to assimilate them into the swing of things.

The 49ers lost offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who was instrumental in the development of quarterback Alex Smith and have reconstructed their receiving corps.

The Packers have the pieces intact already — they just need them to stay health and to perform to their capability.

Lambeau Luster is Back, Baby

The Packers will be back in the playoffs in 2007, which will likely be Favre's swan song.

There is a lot to like about this team (as mentioned previously) and as long as they can replace Green (and running back is one of the easiest positions to replace), then the Packers will turn some heads.

They finished 8-8 and barely fell short of a postseason berth, but have a burgeoning roster that will be more supportive of Favre this year.

More importantly, the Packers will finally take back their home-field advantage. The Lambeau luster has worn off in the previous three years: they are 10-14 in their last 24 home games.

If they post a winning record at home, they can close out Favre's career on a winning note.

Biggest Weakness: Lack of Superstars — The Packers are really good virtually everywhere on their roster, but they are not great in any one area.

Offensive X-Factor: Tight Ends — Running back position is easy to replace (see: Samkon Gado). Favre needs help in the red zone and he needs a set of reliable hands outside of Donald Driver. The tight ends must provide that.

Defensive X-Factor: Strong Safety — The Packers don't have any real leaks on defense outside of this one.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Rookie running back Brandon Jackson is the easy pick here. The Packers have picked guys off the scrap heap to come in and run for them and all of them have been successful. Guys like Noah Herron, Najeh Davenport, Samkon Gado, and Vernand Morency have thrived as runners in this offense and Jackson has more talent than all of those guys.

Morency is a nice change-of-pace runner, but doesn't have the bulk to be the main carrier on season long. He's also battling a knee injury already, which should open the door for Jackson to take the reigns.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

U.S. Open Series: Is it Serious?

The Serbians. Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. This Sunday's big winners on the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour and the ATP Tour. Ivanovic finishes off with a big victory and moves to seventh on the U.S. Open Series point chase with more to come. Djokovic moves into first place on the men's side just ahead of American Andy Roddick. Fellow Serb Jelena Jankovic bows out to Ivanovic in the semis in Los Angeles. This is turning out to be the summer of Serbs.

Djokovic has been very interesting to watch. Steadily rising in the ranks since the beginning of the year, his main losses came only at the hands of current world number one Roger Federer in Australia and twice to world number two Rafael Nadal in Paris and at Wimbledon. A tall, young player with huge power, Djokovic is everyone's favorite to soon win a major tournament. He was to the semifinals at Roland Garros and at Wimbledon, proving that even at the age of 20, he can perform on the big stage.

Now with his win in Montreal against Federer, he sits at number three in the ATP rankings, just ahead of Andy Roddick in both the regular rankings and in the 2007 ATP points race. With two more tournaments to play before the U.S. Open, he appears headed for no worse then a number three seed in Flushing Meadows and looks like the player to beat.

Federer has looked out of sorts to date, even though he lost 6-7, 6-2, 6-7 to Djokovic. Federer dominated every statistical category in the match, but squandered set points in the first and could not sustain the second set romp into the third. The Serb has looked consistent, steady, and more so with each passing match. Djokovic won the Rogers Cup by defeating Andy Roddick, Nadal, and then Federer. An amazing achievement, as no one has taken out the top three men's players in the world in successive matches in a single tournament since 1994. Djokovic has two victories over Nadal this year, and the surface at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center should suit his game well.

Ivanovic has been sitting on the cusp most of the year. She probably benefited by the withdrawal of Maria Sharapova in the semis of Los Angeles, but she has also been performing well on the bigger stages. Making the final at Roland Garros and the semis at the Big W showed she is ready for the next step. Sitting at number four in the world and number three in the 2007 race just behind her Serbian sister, Jankovic, she is beginning to look like the woman to watch on the WTA Tour and is improving with each week.

Jelena Jankovic remains the most consistent player on the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour this year as she has failed to make the round of 16 or higher only once and has a win over Maria Sharapova included in her performance. More of a workhorse then a spectacular player, Jankovic continues to quietly rise in the rankings. Jelena is the first Serb to ever qualify for the year-end Tour Championships in Madrid and with Justine Henin is also the first to qualify on the tour for the season-ender.

So little Serbia has had a great run this year. I'm giddy. But where are the Americans?

Nowhere to be found. American tennis is bad. Not as bad as a Vince Spadea rap, but not far from it (when I refer to a Spadea rap, bad means bad, not bad as in tough cool). Roddick's ranking doesn't seem to reflect how one-dimensional his game is nor how inconsistent he has been. James Blake sits at number eight in the world, but that is based more on his performance of last year than his accomplishments (or lack thereof) on court this year. Twenty three in the 2007 race, Blake is all but done for the year, having to withdraw from the Rogers Cup and having little time left to make a serious run at the points standings.

The women's side is just as dismal. The announcement that Lindsay Davenport will return to the tour in a limited capacity in New Haven doesn't brighten the picture much. Serena and Venus Williams continue to be the only American women in the top 40 and their play has been very limited this year. The former "American Anna Kournikova," Ashley Harkleroad, sits in the top 100, but is no longer a serious threat. Meghann Shaughnessy and Laura Granville are the only other players of note even near an automatic seed in a major tournament.

Tennis is truly the international sport, well ahead of all the others, and I'll say even ahead of soccer or if you live outside of the U.S., football (or futbal, if you speak Spanish.) Unfortunately the biggest media market for tennis is still the U.S., and without a U.S. presence consistently in the top of the game and without a U.S. player to follow on television, there is little interest here. A check of the top news outlets in America today showed that tennis wasn't on the front page of any paper, and there was barely a mention of it even on most websites. Tiger Woods' 13th major was the main story for most of the papers. Understandable, as he is consistently on the top, is a figure of Michael Jordan proportion, and he gets a ton of media attention.

The USTA's idea to create a U.S. Open Series has been hailed as a great achievement. It was supposed to bring excitement to the U.S. Open and create a meaningful reason for media outlets and Americans to follow tennis over the summer leading to the Open in September. It was a great idea on paper, but it hasn't yielded the results they had hoped in the mainstream media and it hasn't been a factor in getting the top players to enter all the events. Since its inception, only one series champion, now officially a Jersey girl, Kim Clijsters, has claimed the top prize and the bonus money.

Tennis is a great game, and the quality of the men's and women's games have never been better. There are great stories everywhere, very positive for sports. Yes, gone are the days of Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Chris Evert, and Billie Jean King. It's a shame. You would think that tennis in the U.S. died with them.

The rise of the Serbians in professional tennis is a credit to the U.S. and our involvement in the civil war that tore the former Yugoslavia apart a decade ago. With the war still going on in Iraq, America could use a good news story. With the state of U.S. tennis, we could use a good news story. The media (other than me) should cover this. Instead, we get Michael Vick and Barry Bonds.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:39 AM | Comments (9)

Answering the Major/Mid-Major Question

During the hoops season, a very efficient way to waste ... I mean ... fill column space or airtime is to discuss what conferences belong in the mid-major and major categories.

So in order to not use this topic during the season, it seems the perfect time to address the mid-major/major gulf as I see it. These lines of demarcation will hold up for exactly one year, if you're wondering (which you likely weren't).

Twenty-five of the 31 Division I conferences are nearly universally concrete in their status; the six BCS conferences, America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon League, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent as of July 1), Sun Belt, and West Coast (yes, including Gonzaga).

That leaves us with six leagues to ponder over; the A-10, Colonial, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and the WAC.

Let's get the easy ones out of the way first.

Colonial Athletic Association

Go back to March 26, 2006. If Denham Brown's shot falls in at the end of overtime for UConn against George Mason in that uber-classic regional final, does any one even think about putting the CAA in any kind of major conference category?

No. You would probably just think of the CAA as a very good mid-major conference, a lot like the MAC.

Sure, Mason's victory to shock UConn brought in millions to the CAA and its schools, but it would be insane to say that the CAA's giant TV markets of Washington, Philadelphia, and New York are giving equal time to it and the Big East.

There's potential there for the CAA to become something greater that a mid-major, and it is a great conference, but it's just not there yet.

Verdict: Mid-Major

Missouri Valley Conference

This is another league that, like the CAA, has earned its way into this conversation based on quality and accomplishment. No less than six teams in the league have been nationally significant at some point in the past two seasons. There is no conference outside of the BCS lot that even comes close to having 60 percent of its teams being prominent in a national way.

Based on the basketball, this conference is completely major. However, the largest markets are Omaha and Wichita. Yes, Kansas City and St. Louis get to see these teams play on TV, but none of the 10 campuses is located in the vicinity of the two cities.

Most of these schools are also on athletic budgets that are about a fifth or a sixth what a common power-conference has at their disposal.

All of these factors make what The Valley has accomplished in this millennium even more special, but it doesn't make the conference anything other that mid-major at heart (but still an amazing conference).

Verdict: Mid-Major

The next two conferences will be linked together forever due to the fact that they used to be one.

Western Athletic Conference

Whenever I see or hear anybody criticizing the Big East's current 16-team configuration for basketball, all I really think is, "The WAC started this crap." And for those three years with the 16-team configuration, the WAC was anything but a mid-major.

In fact, I believe a conference with eight team divisions that were always rotating and had a conference tourney where the finalists, no matter how successful, had to play four games in four days would be correctly characterized as completely mad.

After the Mountain West split, the WAC fell back into a mid-major position, one it had in the years before the 16-team hell. It's a tough thing to describe and I really don't have to words to describe it, but I think it boils down to the fact the nine schools haven't been together that long as a conference.

Whatever the case, the WAC has become a mid-major once again, a characterization that I don't think anyone has any problems with.

Verdict: Mid-Major

Mountain West Conference

When given the chance, I can't help but rip into the Mountain West. In 1996, when the Southwest Conference went belly-up, all of the MWC schools (except TCU) were in the WAC and agreed to have that conference become a confusing 16-team shadow of its former self. Three years later, they wanted out and became the MWC to get a big ESPN deal.

Six years later, they wanted out of the ESPN deal. Ultimately, they had to put their games on networks that reach about half the households of the Worldwide Leader and also started their own network.

Soon, they'll want out of their own deal with their own network. If any of these moves sound like something a mid-major league would do, you and I must not be following the same sport.

Verdict: Major

The final two are the most difficult to decide on. By far.

Conference USA

This is another conference that was birthed out of the demise of the Southwest Conference and a TV deal. To have considered this a basketball mid-major just three years ago (after a six-bid season) would have just been ignorant. Now, it's a question that should be answered.

If Memphis had gone to the Big East, instead of say, South Florida, there would be no question that the new C-USA would be a basketball mid-major. But the one elite program really changes everything.

C-USA slightly resembles what the WAC was after those eight teams left to become the Mountain West. However, two years isn't nearly enough time to make that comparison in a fair way. I also can't shake the feeling that C-USA, as set up now, is a conference that cares more about its football championship game than anything anyone does in basketball.

Maybe a Memphis Final Four trip this year could change that.

Verdict: Still a Major, but it's thisclose.

Atlantic 10

The Atlantic 10 is such an oddball that even Kyle Whelliston, who has been covering mid-majors on his own website for three years and on ESPN.com for two only decided this summer to include the full A-10 as a mid-major (he had previously considered about half the conference as mid-major).

I know Kyle, but I haven't picked his brain about this. Yet.

As I was coming into sports consciousness around the mid-1990s, I can remember watching those great Derek Kellogg and Marcus Camby-led UMass teams demolish, what was in a 7-year-old's mind, a good Atlantic 10. I just can't help but think of those teams when I even try to consider the conference that team was in as a mid-major.

The A-10 has a few teams that are quintessentially mid-major (Dayton, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island). There's also a few that are basically mid-majors in huge cities (Duquesne, Fordham, LaSalle). Then you have the programs that I can't consider anything but major (Charlotte, George Washington, UMass, St. Joe's, Temple, Xavier).

The kicker, though, is that last team of the 14 that make the Atlantic ... uh ... 10: Saint Louis. I will not consider a conference with that kind of ridiculous manifest destiny, if you will, a mid-major.

Verdict: Major

***

I'd just like to close this column by giving my prayers to the family of Skip Prosser. I, much like everyone else, was shocked and saddened to hear the news. College basketball is going to miss you, Skip.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:12 AM | Comments (0)

August 13, 2007

NFL 2007 Preseason Notes: Week 1

Thanks to the NFL Network and the magic of TiVo, I was able to watch an incredible nine NFL preseason games this weekend. Nine! And it was one at a time, too. That's 27 of hours of football condensed into a 72-hour weekend.

(I might also mention I'm happily married and have two kids, 4 and 10 months, greatly increasing the degree of difficulty.)

I unfortunately couldn't get to all of the action. I've still got Oakland/Arizona, Chicago/Houston, Pittsburgh/Green Bay, and Seattle/San Diego waiting for me in that beautiful box connected to my TV. The Network doesn't replay Jacksonville/Miami until this afternoon. Denver/San Francisco and Baltimore/Philly lineup tonight.

So I'll have to cover those later. In the meantime, though, here are some notes from the first fantastic weekend of the NFL.

(And before any of you cynics jump on my ass, I know it's the preseason. I know much will change. Teams played vanilla schemes and blah blah blah. It's still football and they still kept score. Bugger off.)

Dallas Cowboys 23, Indianapolis Colts 10

New Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is one happy dude, always smiling, hitting his players in the facemask. He looks like a fun guy to play for.

Troy Aikman, who called the game with Joe Buck, thinks Terrell Owens is going to have a huge year. He's going to play the "X" position in Garrett's offense, the same position played so successfully by Michael Irvin.

Cowboys QB Tony Romo is not in the least bit traumatized by last year's fumbled hold in the playoffs. It's a non-issue.

Joseph Addai better not go down. None of the backs behind him showed significant potential. From a fantasy perspective, Addai should be an A+ performer.

The Cowboys' run offense, whether with Julius Jones, Marion Barber, or Tyson Thompson, dominated (DOMINATED) the Colts' run defense.

Jason Witten has the look of a Pro Bowl tight end. So does Anthony Fasano. Unfortunately for fantasy drafters, there's no way to tell who's going to get the majority of the numbers.

Same with Jones and Barber in the backfield.

Give Peyton Manning time to sit in the pocket and he will wreck you. But we knew that already.

I'm calling Nick Folk as the winner in the Cowboys' PK battle.

Carolina Panthers 24, New York Giants 21

It's tough to tell if Brandon Jacobs is a short-yardage back pretending to be a feature guy, or if he's a guy who's going to go for 2, 3, 5, 3, 1, 30. I think it's the latter, but I want to see it.

New York expectations: on his second attempt of the preseason, Eli Manning overthrows the slant on third down. The crowd groans loudly.

The Giants' first-team defense was absolutely terrible. Carolina did whatever they wanted on their first drive. Giants fans have to be worried, even if this is "just the first game." Other teams didn't suck this bad. (Three excuses: it was the first game in a new defense; Mathias Kiwanuka, a defensive end converting to linebacker, was severely overmatched; much of the starting secondary didn't play.)

As Carl Banks (former great Giants LB turned color guy on the New York broadcast) said, "This defense seems very permeable."

At least the Giants offense responded with a touchdown off the big kick-off return from Derrick Ward. Manning needed that.

Carolina DE Stanley McClover, a seventh-round pick out of Auburn in the 2006 draft, is a player. You'll be hearing his name this season.

Brett Basanez-to-Taye Biddle. Only in the preseason.

Give Jared Lorenzen credit. He's transformed himself from a novelty freak show into a very legitimate number two NFL quarterback.

Don't forget about Reuben Droughns. He's still got skills. If Jacobs doesn't pan out, Droughns could be the guy.

Detroit Lions 27, Cincinnati Bengals 26

J.T. O'Sullivan was erratic, mixing in some really nice throws with some really dumb decisions. Same with Dan Orlovsky. Mike Martz hates dumb decisions.

Bummer for Bengals rookie RB Kenny Irons, who is out for the year with a knee injury. It didn't even look that bad when it happened.

Bengals WR Bennie Brazell might be worth a look during Chris Henry's eight-game suspension.

I wasn't at all impressed with Detroit's starting offensive line. Bengals defensive end Justin Smith manhandled Lions guard Edwin Mulitalo for a sack.

It looks like the Bengals might have something with DB Nedu Ndukwe (seventh round from Notre Dame) and DE Xzavie Jackson (undrafted free agent from Missouri). I bet both make the final roster.

New York Jets 31, Atlanta Falcons 16

This was one of the best games of the weekend. Extremely good tackling from both sides, especially in the first half.

Thomas Jones looks smaller in a Jets uniform than he did in a Bears uniform. He's still really fast, though.

Don't forget about Leon Washington for the Jets. With Jones as the lead guy, Washington could have a Maurice Jones-Drew-type season.

It's hard to tell if it was Joey Harrington or Bobby Petrino's new offense, but the Falcons looked a lot more explosive than they ever did in the Mike Vick era (which, for now, I'm assuming is over).

It looks like Harrington is focused on developing something with Roddy White.

Washington Redskins 14, Tennessee Titans 6

The Washington defense looks fast and nasty. The Titans weren't that bad, either. The Titans' Sean Conover (No. 77) reminds me of the Chiefs' Jared Allen. (That's a huge compliment.)

Jason Campbell definitely has the arm, but needs to work on the awareness. He got blasted a few times in the first quarter.

It was disappointing that Vince Young didn't play. I wanted to see who was going to be his go-to guy in the revamped receiving corps.

Remember how bad Kerry Collins looked last year before Young took over? He looked about the same this weekend.

Tim Rattay was mildly worse, then mildly better, then mildly worse again.

LenDale White does not look like the fat slob I was led to believe he was.

Titans rookie RB Chris Henry (second round from Arizona) runs with some serious aggression. On one play, he was about to get hit by Jamaal Green (260 lb. defensive end), so Henry lowered his head to deliver the blow. Green stayed down for a while. (He eventually walked off on his own.)

Of the three Titans backs, Chris Brown was the least impressive. To be fair, he was also the one facing the Washington first-team defense.

Marshall Faulk was on the color commentary. He's vastly improved since he first joined the NFL Network last season. Quality stuff.

Spero Dedes (the play-by-play guy with Faulk) said Clinton Portis had just been to see Dr. James Andrews — aka "the Dr. Death of please don't let it be serious" — about his bad knee (tendonitis). Even if Andrews is on the Skins' payroll, I'm crossing Portis off my fantasy draft sheet.

Portis' backup, Ladell Betts, should definitely be on your fantasy radar. (And if he wasn't already, you need to seriously re-dedicate yourself.)

Cleveland Browns 16, Kansas City Chiefs 12

If the Chiefs are serious about winning in 2007, Damon Huard should be the starting QB.

I wrote that last sentence during Brodie Croyle's first series. Then Huard came in and looked terrible. Now I don't know.

Cleveland rookie CB Eric Wright was tested early and showed up well. Joe Thomas had some nice blocks, but was also called for holding a couple of times. Still, he should be a solid player for a long time.

Chiefs LB Donnie Edwards still looks fantastic.

Browns RB Jamal Lewis looks a lot faster than he did the last two years with the Ravens.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson went series-by-series. Romeo Crennel is acting like a bad college coach. I don't see this ending well.

Brady Quinn vastly improved his chances of starting the season opener just by virtue of how bad Frye and Anderson played. I bet the people giving Quinn all that trouble for his holdout and $75 signatures are going to be clamoring for Crennel to give him a lot more snaps in game two than the zero he took in game one.

This was a complete dog poop game for 58 minutes, then got exciting for 90 seconds, then went back to dog poop for the final 30 seconds.

St. Louis Rams 13, Minnesota Vikings 10

Tarvaris Jackson is fast and elusive, with a cannon for an arm. He's going to surprise some people.

It looks like Troy Williamson might be Jackson's go-to guy.

Adam Carriker showed well against Minnesota center Matt Birk.

I like the way Richie Incognito plays. He stood up well against Vikings' tackle Kevin Williams, then ran down-field to make a tackle after an interception.

The Rams secondary is a serious concern.

Rams rookie RB Brian Leonard (second round from Rutgers) is going to get some action this year. The kid is good.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13, New England Patriots 10

No Randy Moss. No Donte' Stallworth. No Richard Seymour. Heath Evans as the primary back. Basically, it was like the worst of last year for the Pats, only if Matt Cassel had played QB instead of Tom Brady.

Rookie RB Ken Darby (seventh round from Alabama) showed some flashes of promise for the Bucs (15 rushes for 84 yards, including a 21-yarder). He could stick.

If Brady goes down, the Pats are absolutely screwed. But we knew that already.

Buffalo Bills 13, New Orleans Saints 10

You could very much tell the Saints were playing their second game and the Bills were playing their first, especially when it came to the Saints' defensive line against the Bills' offensive line.

Both Devery Henderson and Reggie Bush looked very good for the Saints. I could see Henderson putting up better numbers than Marques Colston.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer and editor from St. Louis. He predicted great things for Rick Ankiel a long time ago. For proof, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:22 AM | Comments (2)

Say Aloha to Colt Brennan

You know who Colt Brennan is ... but do you really know who Colt Brennan is?

True, after leading Hawaii to a bowl win against Arizona State last year, Brennan's name definitely surfaced on most college football fans' radar, but not many outside of the islands knows about Brennan's story in addition to his potential as a great young quarterback.

It all started back in Laguna Beach, and while it is not known if he ever ran into the castmates of the popular reality series, Colt attended Mater Dei High School, where he backed up another well-known southern Californian, Matt Leinart. Once taking the reigns, Brennan guided Mater Dei to a league championship. While in school, Brennan also was a superb basketball player, and was integral in helping the school win its league title as a senior.

Once Brennan graduated, he went on to Worcester Academy, located in western Massachusetts, where he started for one year. Brennan then committed to the University of Colorado. After his red-shirt season in 2003, Brennan was in the middle of a firestorm of controversy. First, an incident involving a young woman to which Brennan was found guilty of charges of burglary and trespassing.

Brennan decided to enroll at Saddleback Community College, where he led his team to a league championship, and in addition, was named the state's offensive player of the year in 2004. After all of the baggage he came in with, Brennan was able to shed all of it, and became a premiere quarterback during the offseason recruitment period. Despite getting an opportunity to start at Syracuse, Brennan opted to attend the University of Hawaii, where he would take over for Timmy Chang, who became the all-time leading passer while starting for the Warriors.

Brennan was a star in Hawaii from his first start, and managed to lead the nation in passing yards and touchdowns. Despite all of his heroics, the Warriors did not make a bowl appearance, a first for the team in four years. But the expectations surrounding Brennan and Hawaii were enormous entering the '06 season, and Brennan would do nothing to disappoint.

Critics believed that Brennan was the recipient of an easy schedule when he posted his numbers, but he was determined in his junior season to prove that he was, indeed, for real. Brennan passed for an NCAA record in touchdown passes and passer efficiency. The Warriors were dominant in the WAC, especially at home, where Hawaii seems to prosper every year. With a national spotlight shining on Brennan since his first snap of the '06 season, he has yet to disappoint.

After leading his team to a 10-3 mark during the regular season, Brennan and the Warriors took on the ASU Sun Devils in the Hawaii Bowl, a game played at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. While the Devils stayed in the game for most of the game, Hawaii proved to be too tough for A-State's defense to handle. Brennan had another incredible game, where he threw for 559 yards and 5 scores in Hawaii's 41-24 victory.

After the game, it seemed as though Brennan would declare himself for the NFL draft. Riding high off of an incredible game and even more astounding career, Brennan was slotted to be chosen in the late first round, but after careful consideration, Brennan decided to return for another year at Hawaii. Although his decision was scrutinized by the national media, Brennan is already reaping the rewards for staying in school for his senior year.

Colt has been installed as a Heisman Trophy favorite after his sixth-place finish in the vote last year, and if Darren McFadden is unable to be the kind of back he was last year, there stands to reason that Brennan could become the first Heisman winner in the history of the University of Hawaii.

Colt Brennan could be playing in preseason games right now with an NFL team, making millions, and realizing a dream shared by every kid playing football. However, Brennan decided that, one, his draft stock could rise even higher than it is now, and two, he is in a place where he is already a legend, and the chance to win another bowl game, and some other postseason hardware, was too much to pass up.

Although he experienced a lot of bumps early in his college career, Brennan has now been slated as the best signal caller in the country, and a dedicated student of the game, as well as in school, Brennan has put himself in the ranks of Steve Young and David Carr as one of the WAC's all-time best QBs, and even further, one of the best to ever play collegiately.

Posted by Rich Lyons at 11:20 AM | Comments (8)

2007 NFL Preview: Houston Texans

Looking at 2006 in the Rear View Mirror

Following a disastrous two-win season and the whole "Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush" decision, the Texans seemingly had only one way to go.

But with a new coaching running the show, the Texans actually fell even further before they started back on their way up.

They were 3-8 after 11 games with two of their wins coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team they own (for some inexplicable reason).

In those eight losses, their opponents scored 224 points (28/game) while the Texans themselves averaged less than 15 points per game.

Considering they were losing by an average of two touchdowns per week, they were not quite rebuilding yet.

The court of public opinion will pin the blame on supposed franchise quarterback, David Carr, but it was not completely his fault.

Physically, opposed from the beating that he took over five seasons, Carr was fine. He finished with a career-best 68.3 completion percentage, which was actually the best percentage in the NFL among starting quarterbacks. Given his lack of help from receivers, running backs and the offensive line, that's decent.

But the problem was more mental. The team had simply lost confidence in his ability and needed some kind of change to instill a fresh breath of optimism. It was clear that nobody believed in him anymore.

The real fault was on defense, virtually at every level, and on offense, everywhere except for Andre Johnson.

On defense, the Texans had burned their third consecutive draft pick on a defensive line and shelled out a lot of money for free agent Anthony Weaver but the front four failed to make a serious impact as they totaled only 28 sacks.

Williams dealt with plantar fasciitis and was moved around a lot, which was a detriment to his growth.

Behind him, the Texans had decent linebackers. DeMeco Ryans led the league in tackles and was easily the defense's best player in his first season. Morlon Greenwood completed his third consecutive solid season in Houston.

The secondary, though, was much more of a mess. Outside of Dunte Robinson, who is among the league's most overlooked cornerbacks, the Texans had compiled a pile of garbage around him. Their safety tandem of C.C. Brown and Glenn Earl might be the worst in the NFL. Nobody in the secondary finished with more than two interceptions, while Earl and Brown combined for two. Only Miami and Washington had fewer interceptions than the Texans.

On offense, it took the offensive line until December to start to thrive in the zone blocking scheme. Losing left tackle Charles Spencer definitely didn't help.

If you're looking for positives going forward, how about this:

• The Texans finished 3-2 in their final five games
• The running game really picked up in those five games, as Ron Dayne and Chris Taylor combined for 558 yards and 6 touchdowns in December
• Andre Johnson led the NFL in receptions with 103 receptions

The Texans may have gotten to six wins, but they still have a long way to go to get back to .500.

Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: David Carr

All things considered, the fact that David Carr led the NFL in completion percentage should tell you something: he's still a good quarterback.

Last year, he really made an effort to revive his career for the new coaching staff and tried to use their arrival as a spark.

Not many people stop to glance over his game-by-game numbers, and simply look at the final product, which were the endless losses, but Carr was on-pace for a career-year last year.

Carr had a quarterback rating of 95.2 or higher in five of his first six games, while throwing 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions in that span.

What's impressive about that is that he still had no weapons, was sacked 16 times in those five games and compiled those numbers against Philadelphia, Miami, Jacksonville, and Dallas — all defenses that are in the upper echelon of the league.

One thing Carr can't hide from is his 12 interceptions to 11 touchdowns, a subpar ratio, but keep in mind that Carr had a 4-interception effort in a 40-7 blowout against New England.

Another deficiency that is frequently pointed out about Carr's game is his penchant for fumbling. He tied a career-high with seven lost fumbles in 2006 and has 13 in the past two seasons. Here's a tip: protect your quarterback so that he is not running for his life, which will naturally equate to less hits/pressures and less fumbles.

Carr is still a very good quarterback, but he was asked to carry the whole offense on his own shoulders without much help.

In the NFL, the environment where a player is cultivated is crucial and although Carr's surroundings were not right in Houston, don't be surprised to see him thrive in a much better situation in Carolina.

What is There to Look Forward to on Offense?

Well here is "the glass half-full" approach: the Texans won six games (including three of their last five) and lost two games on last second plays (vs. BUF, vs. TEN)).

They finished strong, particularly the offense, which grew more accustomed to the zone-blocking scheme. Ron Dayne, who was left for dead by most teams, accumulated 429 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in four December starts.

On offense, the Texans will look to Matt Schaub to be their franchise quarterback. Schaub brings with him a renewed confidence that the Texans are moving in the right direction.

Schaub makes faster decisions than Carr and is a natural leader. With a zone-blocking system in place under a man who used to run Denver's offense, Schaub will likely never feel the punishment that Carr took.

He'll have a decent running back tandem behind him as the Texans picked up Ahman Green and his lofty price tag. Green will be working with a former coach Mike Sherman, who is an assistant head coach. He was quite productive under Sherman.

Green and Dayne will work well in the zone-blocking scheme and will take a large burden off of Schaub.

The Texans haven't added much to their wide receiving corps, but it should still be slightly improved. While the Eric Moulds experiment failed, they signed another veteran again in Keenan McCardell. He won't be much of a threat but should serve as a decent on-field coach.

One player that could really help this offense out is tight end Owen Daniels. He emerged after the idea of having Jeb Putzier as the teams top tight end was flushed down the toilet.

The Texans still don't have a viable No. 2 threat opposite of Andre Johnson but will try to use Kevin Walter, McCardell, and a bunch of youngsters to draw some attention away.

The offensive line returns virtually intact, although Spencer is still recovering from a serious knee injury. He won't play until Week 7 at the earliest. In a zone-blocking scheme, the linemen typically overachieve and the sum of the parts is greater than the individual parts. They improved down the stretch of last season, so look for some more growth this year.

Overall, with a new quarterback, running back and the franchise left tackle out for six games, expect there to be some rough spells early on. They will need to build chemistry, which could take more than a month.

The Matt Millen Guide to Drafting Defensive Linemen

While Lions' GM Matt Millen gets shredded for drafting wide receivers three years in a row, how come the Texans don't get as much heck for their misses with defensive linemen?

The Texans have now drafted defensive linemen in the first round in each of the last four seasons and have reaped nothing more than Mario Williams' decent rookie season.

Jason Babin and Travis Johnson aren't exactly Mike Williams- and Charles Rogers-type busts, but needless to say, there were higher expectations. Johnson is lazy, but Babin finally turned into a solid situational rusher, leading the team with five sacks last year.

Williams won't be a flop and the Texans are hoping the same for this year's first-rounder, Amobi Okoye.

Igor Olshansky, Tank Johnson, and Darnell Dockett were drafted after Babin and Marcus Spears, Luis Castillo, and Mike Patterson all went lower than Johnson.

The bottom line is that this line should be good going to dominant by now, but they are still barely approaching "effective."

What is There to Look Forward to on Defense?

Since the Texans didn't make any significant changes to the back seven of their defense, the front four is what will make or break them.

All eyes will once again be on Williams, mostly because the Texans could have had Reggie Bush or Vince Young instead.

Williams had a pretty good season all things considered. He finished second on the team with 4.5 sacks and fifth on the team with 47 tackles. With Anthony Weaver on the other end, along with Babin, there is a good rotation.

In the middle, waiver-wire pickup Anthony Maddox proved to be a good component last year and will be the main run stuffer. There is still some minimal hope that Johnson will come around and push him for the job.

Every bit of success on defense is contingent on the front four generating pressure. Weaver only has three sacks in the last two seasons and the Texans need at least six-to-seven from him this year. They will also need even more from Williams and steady pressure on the interior from Okoye if they plan on getting to eight wins.

There are two need line coaches, which are supposed to get all of these guys to play better.

The linebacking trio has one vacancy: the one spot not filled by a guy named Ryans or Greenwood.

For some reason, the Texans completely ignored the secondary's needs outside of fourth-round pick Fred Bennett and fifth-round pick Brandon Harrison, so don't expect their performance to improve greatly unless the front four helps them out.

The Texans don't have many playmakers on this defense outside of the defensive line as evidenced by their 22 takeaways last season (29th in NFL). Almost any success here is contingent on their performance.

Biggest Weakness: Safety — If C.C. Brown and Glenn Earl were cut today, they probably wouldn't start on any other team in the NFL.

Offensive X-Factor: Ahman Green — The Texans franchise has never had a solid running game and needs somebody to step up and be a reliable carrier.

Defensive X-Factor: Amobi Okoye — Williams is going to be better in his second season, but he needs someone else to distract attention and generate pressure to keep extra blockers away.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

This isn't exactly a Denver running back situation but it is a running back in an offense developed by a former Broncos' offensive coordinator. Many people are afraid of drafting Green, but just take a glance at the numbers that Dayne put up in December as the offensive line adjusted to the new scheme. Assuming the offense improves, they won't be playing from behind as much, which means more opportunities for Green to be a solid No. 2 fantasy running back.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:14 AM | Comments (0)

August 11, 2007

Bonds: The Symptom and Cause

"Here's the guy who has Barry's back."

I was walking through the newsroom when one of my favorite water cooler sports buddies attempted to out me as a Barry Bonds sympathizer. It was less than 48 hours after Bonds sent home run No. 756 into the right-field stands, which in turn sent sports media and fans scurrying to play another exciting edition of everyone's favorite game: "What does it all mean?"

As I said to Office Sports Buddy, I think Bonds is — with or without the juice — the greatest left fielder in baseball history, and had earned consideration for immortality before his performance enhancement, if not a plaque in Cooperstown itself. I also think he's a loathsome individual fueled by a surly arrogance who spoiled his charmed baseball life by searching out a chemical cure for his inferiority complex. That all of these traits can inhabit the same human form is extraordinary, and perhaps an even more understandable diagnosis than steroids as for why Bonds' head is the size of Maui.

I think claiming I've had "Barry's back" during the last several scandalous years is a little exaggerated, but understandable. It's not so much that I've defended the man; more that I've taken a realistic stance on the entire issue of steroids in baseball and their effect on the record book.

For example, I've been a staunch opponent of the asterisk on controversial records; the "*" was No. 12 in my book "Glow Pucks & 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." I think it's nonsense that an asterisk should be used when dealing with records tainted by performance-enhancing drugs but not with, say, ones set using artificial turf, which has had a much more significant impact on offensive stats (outside of the home run) than any little pill. Every record-setting era in baseball is so alien to the others that the record book would look like a blizzard by the time all the properly considered asterisks were placed. That's why these puerile purists who think Bonds' record deserves an asterisk are, to put it in terms they can understand, a bunch of d*ckhe*ds.

After Bonds broke the record, I looked back at what I had written about his exploits, the Congressional steroid testimony, and baseball's performance-enhancing drug scandals over the last several years. My first manifesto on the issues was published in SportsFan Magazine back in fall 2001: a column titled "Let Them Juice." My feelings today echo my thoughts six years ago:

Chemical enhancing by pro athletes is no different from advancements in weight training or equipment. Steroids, andro — they're all just part of a large assortment of factors that create an atmosphere in which today's inferior players can be mentioned in the same breath as the legends of the game. Hitters' ballparks, watered-down pitching, steroids — they have all irrevocably changed the game.

So let them juice.

Let every player on every team go 30-30 every season. Fans are still going to treat Aaron's 755 home runs and 2,297 RBI and Cobb's .367 batting average as all-time records of biblical proportions — and no amount of pills will challenge a 56-game hitting streak.

In other words, Aaron's record still stands in the hearts and minds of fans; not only because the man who broke it needed what is now a banned substance to surpass Aaron, but because Aaron achieved that mark in an era without digital slow-motion video used by hitting instructors or arthroscopic surgery or pitching that's diluted to the point of embarrassment or a stadium in Denver. Steroids are part of a seismic shift in baseball that created a nearly unprecedented era of offensive output; Bonds is just that era's most prominent beneficiary.

Should he be crucified for juicing? Yes, as should anyone else with the damning evidence and guilt by association Bonds carries with him. (I've often felt those who give Bonds some benefit of the doubt because he's never formally tested positive were also waiting for a bloody Ginzu to fall out of O.J.'s pant leg during the trial.) What I'm not willing to do is acknowledge him as the fall guy for the players association's disgusting cronyism and big media's hypocritical approach to the steroid issue. If (if ... who are we kidding?) Bonds cheated, he did so because scores of his peers and his watchmen were content to count the money generated by this culture of corruption than fight for the alleged "integrity" of their game.

I think I said everything I'll ever need to say about that "integrity" in a JQ from back in March 2005:

I don't see the steroid debate as a microcosm of the ongoing debates over societal evils and moral indignation. I see it as a bunch of people who hold baseball to some sort of pious standard treating "the integrity of the game" as if it actually still means something.

Baseball lost its way years before Barry Bonds began his formal assault on Hank Aaron's record. He's a symptom of that degradation of character, but far from its cause.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

August 10, 2007

Sports Q&A: AFC Powers

Chuck from Muncie, IN writes, "Indianapolis, New England, and San Diego have to be the preseason favorites in the AFC. Which one of these teams will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl in February? If not one of those three, what teams could surprise as the AFC champion?"

It does look like a three-team race in the AFC, and this year, you might as well call the AFC champ the Super Bowl champ. But is it too early to start talking playoffs when practice has just begun? As much as I'd love to hear Jim Mora, Sr. and Allen Iverson debate that question, it's never too early to talk postseason.

This year's schedule includes a nice little round-robin tournament between the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers, the outcomes of which will likely provide playoff implications, like the trusty head-to-head tiebreaker. It gets started in Week 2, when the Chargers visit the Patriots on September 16. The Chargers are practically the same team that powered through the 2006 regular season with a 14-2 record, only to fall at home to the Patriots in the divisional round.

Gone is Marty Schottenheimer, fired as head coach after that loss. Chargers brass followed that questionable move with an even more questionable move: hiring Norv Turner to replace Schottenheimer. For sure, Schottenheimer was fired because of his lack of coaching success in the playoffs, but Turner's has exactly one playoff win. Yes, I know, Turner is an offensive genius, but so was Sam Kennison, and he's never won a single playoff game.

But how hard can it be to devise a San Diego offensive game plan? Just give LaDainian Tomlinson the ball, throw a few play action passes, and let L.T. punch it in. And this is practically the same offense that Turner installed as offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2001. On defense, linebacker Shawne Merriman will harass Tom Brady, and not just for pictures of Giselle Bundchen. New England will counter by trotting out its new showpieces, Adalius Thomas on defense and Randy Moss on offense. A slight, and by "slight," I mean "humongous" coaching edge to the Pats. The result: a narrow Charger win. Revenge is a great motivator, even when preached by Turner.

In Week 9, New England visits Indianapolis. These teams have met in the regular season for the last four years. In three of those years, the winner of that game has also won the playoff rematch, and subsequently gone on to win the Super Bowl. The Colts won last year's regular season matchup 27-20, then overcame a 21-3 half-time deficit to win the AFC championship, 38-34. Again, revenge plays a factor, and New England wins a shootout "behind" two touchdowns from Moss, who refrains from celebrating with a faux pants-off dance off in lieu of a "Foxboro Flop" into a sea of adoring fans.

The Colts go to San Diego the following week, reeling from the New England loss, as well as a loss in Jacksonville two weeks earlier, in which the Colts give up 458 yards rushing. It's a must win for the Colts, who can't afford any more conference losses. Peyton Manning carries the Colts, and ducks a blind-side sack attempt from the charging Merriman and hits Marvin Harrison for the fourth-quarter game-winning score.

So, where does that leave us? The round-robin tournament results in a 1-1 for all three teams. No tiebreaker advantage there. And maybe another AFC contender, the Baltimore Ravens, will have a say in the matter. The Ravens play San Diego, New England, and Indianapolis, so this could just as easily be a four-team round-robin. The problem is the Ravens play them in succession, in a brutal three-week stretch at San Diego in Week 12, then at home versus the Pats and Colts in Week 13 and 14. An 0-3 record in those games could be fatal to Baltimore's Super Bowl aspirations. The Ravens also must twice battle division foe Cincinnati, which could be a Super Bowl possibility, depending on their shaky defense, as well as the severity/leniency of court judges. In short, Baltimore is the fourth or fifth best team in the AFC.

As the past two years have shown, home-field advantage is not imperative for a run the the NFL championship. And it won't matter this year. New England wins home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but loses to the Chargers in the AFC title game. Tomlinson wins his first Super Bowl, debunking the myth that monkeys were made only to ride quarterbacks' backs.

Get Your Questions Answered!

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:36 PM | Comments (0)

Top 10 Must-See '07-'08 NBA Games

Let's face it. The NBA offseason has been an absolute disaster for NBA Commissioner David Stern and the rest of the league. The Tim Donaghy scandal has a chance to ruin the NBA indefinitely and cloud the league with suspicion for years to come, much like Len Bias' death opened up the wide use of cocaine amongst basketball players.

There have been some news-makings, however. The Kevin Garnett deal was a major player in taking the heat off of Donaghy. It makes you wonder if Stern called up Kevin McHale and Danny Ainge and said get this deal done or we're toast. Now I could spend the rest of this space to detail this trade and what it means for the rest of the NBA, but let's be honest, all this amounts to is a glorified 1996 Rockets team with Charles Barkley, Clyde Drexler, and Hakeem Olajuwon. They didn't win the title and neither will the Celtics.

What this deal did do, however, is boost the Celtics into national prominence again, and they were rewarded with a plethora of nationally televised games. Out of all the games that are now scheduled for the 2007-08 season, I have narrowed it down to the top 10 games that every sports fan should watch next year.

Honorable mention: Nov. 30: Los Angeles Lakers at Utah

There is not a bigger basketball town than Utah, and after last year's playoffs and what Derek Fisher did for that club with all the personal problems he was going through, you can expect this to be an emotional night. If you ever wonder what makes sports great, this game right here will give you all you need.

10) April 13: Warriors at Sonics

The lease is up for the Sonics and Oklahoma City is no longer the halfway home for the Hornets, which means this game may be the last in Seattle.

9) Dec. 6: Miami at Portland (TNT)

Greg Oden gets a test in his first game in the NBA, which you'll see later in this countdown, but I'm more excited to see him match up against Shaq. The Big Aristotle has already challenged Oden at the ESPYs, this could be a Kareem vs. Russell type changing of the guard.

8) Oct. 30: Houston at Los Angeles Lakers (TNT)

Opening night in L.A. Is Kobe Bryant still a Laker? Is Jermaine O'Neal a new Laker? Will Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum be in Staples? Oh, the drama.

7) Oct. 31: Seattle at Denver

The Kevin Durant era begins in Seattle (if only for a year).

6) Oct. 30: Portland at San Antonio (TNT)

The Greg Oden era begins in Portland (if only for a couple of decades). Who does Oden draw in his first game in the NBA? The NBA champion Spurs! It should be very interesting to see how this one goes down. I'm guessing 4 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 fouls for the 40-year-old-rookie.

5) March 19: Denver at Philadelphia

Most probably have forgotten, but Allen Iverson has not played in Philly since being traded last December. I hear cheers, not jeers, for the best pro athlete to play in Philadelphia.

4) Feb. 8: Boston at Minnesota (ESPN)

I hear boos for Kevin McHale and ovations for Kevin Garnett in his return to the Twin Cities. He deserves it. He didn't ask for the trade, he was sold out. What will be interesting about this game besides the homecoming is do the Celtics just play the Big Three against Minnesota and do the Timberwolves start Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, and Ricky Davis ... all Celtics at one point.

3) Nov. 6: Denver at New York (NBA TV)

It was the backpedal heard round the world. Now Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets head back to Madison Square Garden, where there hasn't been a boxing match with that much excitement since Riddick Bowe and Andrew Golota squared off.

2) Dec. 25: Sonics at Blazers (ESPN)

There hasn't been this much hype surrounding two rookies since Bird and Magic came into the league. Expect more coverage than Paris Hilton's ride to jail.

1) Jan. 31: San Antonio at Phoenix

In Game 1, Steve Nash had his nose split open. It has been suggested that the Tim Donaghy debacle played significantly in Game 3 of last year's Western Conference Semis. We all know what happened in Game 4. This is the premiere rivalry of this generation and it's the Spurs' first trip to the Valley of the Sun. Robert Horry and Bruce Bowen, beware!

Posted by Wailele Sallas at 11:50 AM | Comments (1)

Cards/Cubs Still an Undercard

It was Sunday morning when my son came into the bedroom bringing news from around the majors the day before: Barry Bonds finally hit Number 755, A-Rod reached 500, and Jim Thome got his 490th. The Red Sox won, and so did the Yankees.

It was all the briefing any father would need as Major League Baseball trudges through these dog days with a paucity of drama even as fully one-third the season remains. Spring's electricity has faded, ladling in its wake small rations of hope to the underprivileged few such as Arizona and Milwaukee. By August, little else remains for dads in Pittsburgh and Florida and San Francisco except to tally home runs, cross off boxes on a calendar's blank pages until the start of football, and vicariously follow their favorite half of the perennial Red Sox/Yankees divisional race.

Even one Sunday back, I could think of nothing more. Then I met Larry.

Larry and his wife Sharon are relatives of friends down the street and this past weekend was First Friday, the night we neighbors congregate for our monthly dinner party. Larry and Sharon were visiting from the Azores, where they anchor an '80s cover band of cultish proportion, their success in no small way owing to the Portuguese-speaking islanders who can't discern between real English lyrics and those Larry often sings.

During the evening, Larry confessed to being an outcast on two other fronts. He's also the only Azorean inhabitant who doesn't like soccer, and he's originally from St. Louis, but didn't grow up a Cardinals fan.

So what then, the Red Sox or the Yankees?

"The Cubs," he proudly answered.

Larry, it seems, came from a family that took up the frustrations of the Chicago Cubs long before it was a chic thing to do, despite there having never been a time when it was a safe thing to do in St. Louis. He billed it as the longest running and hottest rivalry in all of baseball, some bold assertions that compelled me to look beyond my provincial New England nose and investigate the matter.

It seems that Cardinal and Cub ancestors did meet for the first time way back in 1885 when the St. Louis Browns, having just abbreviated their original "Brown Stockings" surname, played the Chicago White Stockings to a draw in the championship series of a pre-World Series era. Okay, this nostalgia may be fine for fans who don't mind tracing their partisanship back to a time when teams were named after articles of my grandmother's clothing, but it's not for me. In fact, throw away all those years when both teams mingled around the keg between innings discussing which mustache wax holds up best to the head of a good draught. Nonetheless, I will not begrudge Larry a long history and that's a requisite element in any rivalry.

Another is the curse factor. If one team is going to laud it over another the way the Cardinals have to Larry's Cubs, there has to be a valid explanation for the gulf, such as supernatural intervention. Otherwise, it's less a rivalry than an indenture. Larry is covered here. He has Billy Sianis' goat to blame for part of his 89-year championship drought while the Cardinals have won ten World Series.

In our own rivalry, we in New England clung to Babe Ruth's piano, even as divers conducted three search-and-rescue missions at the bottom of a Sudbury lake to raise it and again play the chords that would bring Boston another championship. Well, a note has yet to be struck but the Red Sox found a way to win it all just the same, making the Wrigley goat the last legitimate curse in all of sports. Larry, you're still in business.

There also has to be a border war. Not a war over geographical distinction as much as one waged over the thin line separating man's reason from his obstinacy. Case in point: Lou Brock. The 1964 trade sending Brock from Chicago to St. Louis was the flashpoint in the tempestuous relationship between these estranged cities. As when the Red Sox sold Babe Ruth and traded Sparky Lyle to the Yankees, the full weight of this front office transgression had to be borne in incremental measure by Larry's patriarchs as Brock played deeper into his Hall of Fame career. There is a deep pain remaining, even after the defection of Jason Marquis to the Cubs this offseason.

Cubbie and Cards fans regard their rivalry as Red Sox/Yankees on steroids, and they have the summer of 1998 backing them. Citizens of the Midwest, rallying around a perverse home run derby is not a good career move in propping yours as America's premier feud. It's more akin to adding a legal holiday honoring the Watergate break-in. Even the most ardent of Red Sox fan acknowledges Roger Maris as the single-season home run king.

One last thing: a pinch of bad blood is needed for good measure. Granted, this comes much more naturally for a New Yorker than for the civil Midwesterner especially in the aftermath of Dusty Baker's resignation, but Larry has to put more effort into it. He didn't even remember Steve Bartman's name and would undoubtedly treat him to a good show if the expatriated Chicagoan ever steps into a Ponta Delgada nightclub.

Red jerseys may never be doused with beer in Wrigley, nor will pizza slices be hurled at blue-capped fans in Busch. But if this is ever to be a rivalry of East Coast proportion, let me suggest as a minimum a few '1-9-0-8' chants, or t-shirts that say, 'Cards ... Aren't Very Good at What They Do'.

Truthfully, the thrill of the chase has made this a good season and empowered Midwesterners, and that's okay. Just don't get delusional on us. Six games separate the Cardinals from the Cubs and a playoff berth. They are an embarrassing eight games under .500 as defending world champions, and the Cubs would love nothing more than to keep them there, a hard enough task now exacerbated by Alfonso Soriano's right quad injury. This may be the opening the Cardinals need to make it a good NL Central battle.

Until then, my son will not be appending Cubs and Cardinals scores to his briefing any Sunday morning too soon.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 11:15 AM | Comments (3)

August 9, 2007

Hypocrisy, Culture, Murder, and Vick

I have to be careful writing this column, it can be very easily misconstrued. It could also, I suppose, be mistaken for satire (which my last column was). But I'm serious, even though I'm sure I'm in the minority.

The fury over the Mike Vick situation has been blown WAAAAAAAAY out of proportion. It should rank towards the middle of illegal outrages committed by professional athletes, ranking behind hurting or killing, you know, a human. Like Leonard Little and Rae Carruth have done.

Take this article by Peter King. He sounds about ready to execute Vick personally. Notice how he moves on to other topics, but keeps coming back to Vick. He's too furious, too consumed, not to.

King is in the majority from what I've seen. Apparently, not only has Vick been conducted dogfighting, but actually invented the sport.

That's my first problem with this. Dogfighting is nothing new, everyone's heard about it. But have you reached this level or anger over dogfighting previously? Do you donate to PETA and groups that work tirelessly to end this scourge, or did you before the Vick thing happened? Or did you just sneer at that liberal wacko organization?

Another SI writer at least touches on it. Don Banks complains that Deion Sanders uses "twisted logic" when he points out that Vick may not have the same love affair with dogs that most of us have.

I'm really glad he finds that logic twisted, because it means he can't really argue my second point: animals suffer and are tortured for our entertainment all the time. Peter King is fat, and I think I safely say that eats a lot of animals and, I would guess, doesn't make a point to limit his meat purchases to free range animals. King, and the rest of us, would be a lot healthier if we stopped eating cows and pigs, and we know it. We eat them anyway because they taste good. It's entertainment to us, no more morally acceptable than dogfighting.

The lives and deaths of slaughterhouse animals are just as painful and torturous as a dogfighting dog's. Probably moreso. And their nervous systems are just as developed as a dog. But no, Vick is Hitler and the rest of us McDonaldites are juuuuuuust fine.

What, you say, we humans have a special bond with dogs? That's what makes it sick? Careful, that's that "twisted logic" Banks was complaining about, basing our judgment of Vick's crime based on personal or cultural setiments. In China, I'm sure they'd be very perplexed by our outrage, and in India, cows are sacred. I again point out the pain a factory farm pig feels is every bit as real as what these dogs feel. Dogs don't have a greater capacity for pain than cows because Americans like them more.

This outrage is because we don't like Vick's kind, anyway. He has had minor scrapes with the law before and, much worse, he's a corn-rowed FUBU wearer that clearly isn't following the Johnny Unitas Guide to Life, Hair, and Quarterbacking like he should be. It's why we hate guys like Allen Iverson, too, and why David Stern implemented his dress code. It's not exactly racism, but it's something close: we are now prejudiced not against blacks per se, but against black culture. We now like and accept black guys if they act white, and we now hate white guys if they act black, and call them wiggers.

It bears repeating that we haven't been particularly outraged at the two football players (one active!) who have actually killed people, and I can't list all the athletes who have been busted for beating their wives and girlfriends because I'm dealing with a one gigabyte limit.

But those guys get at least somewhat of a pass because, to our knowledge, they don't embody cornrowed hip-hoppery the way that Mike Vick does, and we even give them the benefit of the doubt when we don't know for sure. Such progress!

Note: One Sports Illustrated guy gets it: Pete McEntegart. I must thank him of reminding me of Little and, oh yes, the rapists and sexual assault artists that I haven't even mentioned. Don't grow cornrows, Kobe.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:59 AM | Comments (15)

2007 NFL Preview: Detroit Lions

Looking At 2006 in the Rear View Mirror

Call it bad luck, or coincidence, but the Detroit Lions were once again ravaged by injuries in 2006.

On offense, the whole right side of the offensive line had new faces each week. In the backfield, Kevin Jones didn't surpass 186 carries for a second consecutive season due to injuries. Behind him, Shawn Bryson and Brian Calhoun also endured knee injuries.

On the other side of the ball, between a suspension and a knee injury, Shaun Rogers, the strength of the defensive line at tackle, only made six games. Starting cornerback Fernando Bryant failed to participate in more than 10 games for a third consecutive season.

While the Lions were as brittle as one of Charles Rogers' collar bones, there was a lot of positive progress, which is why Jon Kitna is already brewing the blue Kool-Aid for the coming season.

Roy Williams, who was tagged a player who couldn't play through pain, suited up for 16 games and dominated. With some better protection from the offensive line, we would probably be talking about Williams as one of the five to seven best receivers in the NFL.

As atrocious as Mike Martz is at managing a game, he is unquestionably one of the brightest offensive minds in the game. He unearthed Mike Furrey last season, who thrived as a possession and after-the-catch receiver and also proved that Jon Kitna could run his offense, after many pundits mocked him.

The defense was definitely not as strong, but there were obvious bright spots.

For starters, the Lions finally hit on a first-round pick as linebacker Ernie Sims was a tackling machine. The next surprise was Corey Redding, who shifted inside on the line when Rogers stepped out of the lineup. Redding finished his huge season with eight sacks, the second-highest NFC total for a defensive tackle.

There were other, less exciting positives that the Lions can build on. Outside linebacker Boss Bailey, who was also considered injury prone, finished a full season. He wasn't special, like the Lions hoped, but he did take a step forward. Virtually the exact same thing can be said about Alex Lewis, as well.

Not everything was sunny, though, as the Lions had hoped that Marinelli would spark Kalimba Edwards, but he only finished with three sacks. Kennoy Kennedy, who is making a lot of money to be a top flight safety, didn't take off in the new scheme.

Injuries did impact the Lions in the win column last season, but what is important to learn here is that Matt Millen and this team are no longer at rock bottom. They have past that point, have regained optimism and are on the way to winning.

Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: Offensive Growth

Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, and Jon Kitna had impressive seasons in 2006, but aside from Williams, it was hard to fathom the success of the other two.

Kitna went from being a borderline starter and a useful backup quarterback to being the NFC's third-leading passer.

Kitna had never thrown for more than 3,591 yards in a season, but topped that total by 671 yards. Some of the old Kitna was still there, as evidenced by his 22 interceptions against 21 touchdowns, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt considering he had no running game and little help from the offensive line. He was sacked 14 times more than any other quarterback in the league (63 times) and the Lions rushing game ranked dead last.

Mike Furrey was easily the biggest surprise of the three. A converted defensive back, Furrey flashed reliable hands and good yards-after-catch ability. Furrey finished with 98 receptions, second in the NFL only to Andre Johnson.

His game was more intermediate than Williams, who was the deep threat. 80 of 98 receptions came between the 20s. While most people won't expect him to build on his 98 catches from a year ago, he very well might. In his last five games, Furrey compiled 42 receptions for 436 yards.

Williams was not as much of a surprise since a lot has been expecting from him. That finally came to fruition in '06 as he led the NFC in receiving yards and catches of 20 yards or longer. Even so, the best is still yet to come from Williams. As long as he stays healthy, 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns is reasonable.

Why Jon Kitna Said 10 Wins

The math is simple: the Lions' seventh-best passing offense is in its second season with an improved offensive line and Calvin Johnson in the mix. The deadbeat running game, which failed throughout last season, now has Jones, speedster Tatum Bell, and bulldozer T.J. Duckett to ameliorate their abysmal total.

Those points alone lead many Lions' enthusiasts to believe that like Martz' Rams at the turn of the millennium, the Lions don't necessarily need a good defense since their offense can carry them to the playoffs.

And on top of that, the Lions have a defensive-minded coach who figures to improve the standing of the league's 29th defense.

Here are a few things that have to happen for the Lions to make it to 10 wins:

Indeed, They Can Run It, Run It

The Lions run game finished with 1,129 yards last season, which was the lowest total in the NFL.

Sixteen running backs finished above that number last year.

The Lions didn't invest a lot, but gather some experienced running backs to alleviate some of the burden in the case that Jones is out of the lineup for prolonged periods of time.

If Jones is healthy, he is due for a breakout campaign. Not only is he a capable running back, the reason why he can be a real asset to this offense is his catching ability. Even though he only played 12 games in 2006, he still had 61 receptions and finished fourth in the NFL in YAC.

But the Lions have some versatility now, too. Not that Martz runs the ball a whole heck of a lot, the home run option and the tough yards options are there now. The latter should come in handy.

Can Somebody Block?

Kitna felt a season in the shoes of David Carr last season and if the Lions are going places, the line has to step up.

The good news is that the Lions should have more contributors.

Left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola are sturdy. Guard Damien Woody, who a disappointment last season because of weight issues, has shed some pounds and could recover his Pro Bowl form. At right tackle, the Lions acquired Broncos castoff George Foster, who is better than what they've had there in the past.

Assuming everything goes as planned, that leaves only one whole. And assuming that hole is fixed by veteran Edwin Mulitalo or prospect Stephen Peterman, the Lions won't allow 63 sacks again.

The Explosive Offense

Don't get it twisted: the Lions offense still has a long way to go to get to The Greatest Show On Turf.

Kitna has to cut down on his interceptions and pick up his efficiency. That is critical for this offense and definitely is not a given considering Kitna has only three more touchdown passes than interceptions in his career.

The other key for this offense is Calvin Johnson. Considering he got into camp a little late and the fact that wide receivers typically take a while to develop as rookies, he won't be Randy Moss right off the bat. In the meantime, Shaun McDonald, another good inside receiver, has to play at a high level.

Martz' offense only becomes dangerous when they are multiple receiving options who can burn opponents on every play. The Lions have the weapons, but they have to get everyone assimilated into this offense and on the same page before we can even conjecture whether they are close to the Rams of recent memory.

And What About the Defense?

Well, if the offense is scary good, then the defense doesn't have to be Baltimore Ravens-good.

Keep in mind that the Tampa-2/Cover-2 type of defense that the Lions are employing puts a premium on the defensive line and places less importance on everyone else.

The Lions could have one of the league's best D-lines, depending on if Shaun Rogers keeps his weight down. If he does, with Redding and Shaun Cody, the Lions will shoot the gaps as good as anyone.

On the ends, the Lions are counting on a couple of unproven guys. Dewayne White got paid like he was a sure thing, but he mostly played as a situational pass rusher in Tampa Bay. The end opposite of him, Kalimba Edwards, has 23 sacks in five seasons and the Lions are still waiting for him to break out. The Lions need a steady pass rushing presence from these two or the defense will fail.

In the back seven, there are a lot of question marks.

At linebacker, Sims is solid, but you can't count on much outside of him. The coaching staff is high on Paris Lenon, who is slated to start in the middle, but he is unproven as a quality starter. The other vacancy will be split by Boss Bailey and Alex Lewis, who should be adequate between the two of them.

The Lions are Nicole Ritchie-thin at cornerback and are relying heavily on Fernando Bryant to stay healthy. He is a good fit for this defense, but he has only played in a full 16 games in three of his eight seasons. The other starting spot will be up to Stanley Wilson or Travis Fisher, both of whom are probably better suited for the nickel role.

At safety, sophomore Daniel Bullocks looks like a keeper, but there are higher hopes for Kennedy. He used to be a body rocker, but didn't make many jarring hits last year.

If the defensive line isn't good, this defense could be worse than last year. The good news is that with a high-octane offense, this unit will get plenty of time on the field to learn and hopefully grow.

Biggest Weakness: Winning Experience — Similar to the New York Knicks current roster, the Lions have a lot of talent, but nobody who has a winning track record.

Offensive X-Factor: Kevin Jones — Bell and Duckett are nice additions, but Jones is the best receiver out of the backfield and needs to stay on the field to make this offense fully effective.

Defensive X-Factor: Fernando Bryant — Take your pick off of this defense, but Bryant's importance to the defense is crucial. At one point in his career, you could argue he was a No. 1 cornerback and if he endures injuries or doesn't play well this season, the Lions will allow more passing yards than they gain.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Now before you look at me as if I just told you that subprime mortgage lending is a good idea, hear me out: you can get excellent value with Kevin Jones right now. He is recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury that might take him well into training camp to fully recover, which means that you have to monitor this situation closely, but Brian Westbrook bounced back from this type of sprain to post a huge year last year.

Now here are the facts: in 12 games last year, he finished 689 yards rushing and 520 yards receiving with eight touchdowns while ranking fourth in yards-after-catch. Projected over a full season, that is 1,600 yards and 10 touchdowns.

But what gives him more potential than just a poor man's Brian Westbrook is that this offense — and the offensive line — will be improved.

Did Martz use a power back in St. Louis in the red zone? Did Martz ever opt to use running backs that can't catch? Don't worry so much about Duckett and Bell; at the very least, Jones should be an excellent yardage option.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:51 AM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 21

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Gordon — To borrow a tennis analogy, Gordon "held serve" in the Pennsylvania 500, finishing fifth for his ninth consecutive top-10, and 19th on the year. Gordon has only three results out of the top 10, although two of those are an 11th and a 12th, which certainly don't qualify as "bad" races. The other was a 41st in Charlotte, where he was taken out early in a crash.

"Unlike someone else named 'Gordon,' I don't cause a 'racket' when I lose," says Gordon, Jeff. "Robby really gave the fans at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve a bad example of American sportsmanship. What kind of buffoon celebrates and does burn-outs after a race he didn't even win? And I'm sure Canadian fans weren't too happy to see him drinking champagne out of the Stanley Cup, either. But, in true American fashion, they're making a movie about it all. It's called Villeneuve Nights: The Ballad of Gordon, Robby."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin couldn't match his 2006 success at Pocono, in which he swept both Cup races, but his 2007 results were certainly more than adequate. The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Chevrolet followed his second in June's rain-shortened Pocono 500 with a third in the Pennsylvania 500.

"Look, if I can't win the race," says Hamlin, "I pull for one of my teammates to win. That one being J.J. Yeley."

3. Tony Stewart — Stewart's two-race winning streak ended in Pennsylvania, but he still finished a solid sixth to remain at number five in the points, 487 out of first. After wins at Chicago and Indianapolis, Stewart's bid for three in a row had about as much of a chance as Stewart giving an interview to ESPN without getting pissed off.

"Nothing against ESPN," says Stewart, case of Schlitz in hand and profanities at the ready, "but if you've got nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. That's why I'll say nothing if they ask me my opinion of soon-to-be new teammate, Kyle Busch."

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson rebounded from a run of two races in which he finished 37th or worse with a fifth at Pocono, which propelled him up two places to seventh in the points.

"It's nice to finally see the finish line," says Johnson, "but even nicer to see the finish line without losing an eyebrow or two. Chicago and Indianapolis weren't too good to me, but luckily, I've got four wins to fall back on. What's really cool is I could finish twelfth in the points and still start the Chase tied for first with Jeff Gordon, as long as he stays on four wins. That's a scenario NASCAR probably overlooked when they revised the Chase points system. They should know better: the Chase system, just like inspections, is all about the details."

5. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth suffered handling and grip issues late in Sunday's race that kept him out of the top 10 for only the seventh time this year. He finished the day 14th, and remained third in the points.

"Sure, that's nothing to cheer about," says Kenseth, "but this is: I've just signed a deal to star in a new movie with Chris Tucker, the Pennsylvania 500 grand marshall and motor-mouthed actor. It's the story of a fast-talking cop, Tucker, and his bland partner, me, who has little to say that anyone cares about. The picture will be called Roush Hour."

6. Kurt Busch — Busch was unstoppable at Pocono, leading a record 175 laps on the way to his first win since winning at Bristol last spring. A day after his 29th birthday, Busch passed Dale Earnhardt, Jr. with 47 laps left, and also overtook Earnhardt for the all-important 12th place in the points, seven points ahead of 13th.

"It certainly was a great way to celebrate my birthday," says Busch, "although sharing a victory lap with Robbie Gordon was very awkward."

7. Jeff Burton — Burton and crew couldn't quite tame an ill-handling car at Pocono, but he still battled his way to an 11th-place finish in the Pennsylvania 500. Like teammate Kevin Harvick, Burton also raced in Saturday's Busch race in Montreal, won by Harvick.

"Talk about two different races," says Burton. "First, in Montreal, on a road course, we give the Canadian fans a heck of a show, plus a great finish, complete with two winners and Robby Gordon's international debut of his comedy routine. Then, in Pennsylvania, the race turns into an extended Kurt Busch test session, with very few lead changes and nary a hint of any antics from Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, or any other unstable NASCAR star. I think those hosers up north got the better show."

8. Kyle Busch — Busch finished 12th in the Pennsylvania 500, the last of four Hendrick drivers in the top 12, and also the last of two Busch brothers in the top 12. Busch held on to eighth in the points, 625 out of first. On Monday, it was announced that Busch will join Joe Gibbs Racing, taking over J.J. Yeley's ride.

"What a week for athletes going places you'd never expect," says Busch. "There's former Dallas Cowboy Michael Irvin entering the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and not the Eight Ball Hall of Fame. There's Pacman Jones entering the wrestling ring. I'm assuming he'll be a bad guy. And there's me joining Joe Gibbs Racing where I'm supposed to have a working relationship with Tony Stewart. Fat chance."

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt's most successful weekend on the track ended with a second at Pocono, as Kurt Busch's Miller Lite Dodge was too much for Earnhardt's Budweiser Chevy and the rest of the field. Earnhardt started on the pole, but Busch was strong from the start and won in unrelenting fashion, leading 175 laps to Earnhardt's eight. The result flip-flopped Busch's and Earnhardt's positions in the points: Busch takes over the 12th position, while Junior falls one place to 13th.

"It was a beer drinkers paradise," says Earnhardt. "Budweiser versus Miller Lite. The King of Beers versus that beer that puts its name on cars driven by Kurt Busch and Rusty Wallace, on purpose. If I were Bud, I would have pulled sponsorship from me, too. Anyway, it had to be a grueling race for Miller drinkers playing the drinking game in which they have to drink everytime their beer leads a lap."

10. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a modest 17th in the Pennsylvania 500, but his Sunday drive paled in comparison to the excitement and controversy in Saturday's NAPA Auto Parts 200 in Montreal, won by Harvick. In that race, Robbie Gordon claimed victory after a confusing chain of events, including Gordon's refusal to obey NASCAR's order to pull off the track, and Gordon's celebrating victory despite Harvick's official win.

"Gordon's not a big fan of mine," says Harvick, "so you can imagine my surprise when I saw him celebrating my victory. I was quite flattered. Normally, Robby's a sore loser, so I have to applaud the maturity he showed after suffering that tough loss. I expect him to be nothing short of a gentleman at Watkins Glen. Win or lose, I expect him to be in the winner's circle showing his support."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:41 AM | Comments (0)

August 8, 2007

Aaron and Bonds Versus Cooperstown

When it was still another day, another wait for Barry Bonds to perform the inevitable, and nudge Hank Aaron to one side as the all-time home run leader (as opposed to champion), the temptation to ask arose: while you waited, would you have been interested in knowing a) the particular favorite pitchers against whom each man went long; and, b) the Hall of Famers against whom they did it and how often?

Considering the pitchers against whom they hit five or more home runs en route to breaking the lifetime bomb record — accounting the first 715 of Aaron's career and what stands to end up the first 756 of Bonds' career — here, first, are their favorite marksmen overall. If you'll pardon the expression and the device, the asterisks indicate Hall of Famers in fact or in likely waiting:

HANK AARON

Five — Steve Blass, Nelson Briles, Ray Culp, Carl Erskine, Jim Maloney, Jim O'Toole, Dave Roberts, Ed Roebuck, Chris Short.

Six — Steve Carlton (*), Dick Ellsworth, Jack Fisher, Warren Hacker.

Seven — Bob Buhl, Larry Dierker, Sammy Ellis, Bob Gibson (*), Don Gullett, Sandy Koufax (*), Curt Simmons, Ray Washburn.

Eight — Johnny Antonelli, Harvey Haddix, Jay Hook, Ron Kline, Juan Marichal (*).

Nine — Vernon Law, Mike McCormick, Robin Roberts (*).

Ten — Don Cardwell, Roger Craig, Larry Jackson.

Twelve — Bob Friend.

Thirteen — Claude Osteen.

Seventeen — Don Drysdale (*).

BARRY BONDS

Five — Tom Browning, John Burkett, Jose DeLeon, Mike Hampton, Greg Harris, Orel Hershiser, Jon Lieber, Jose Lima, Jamie Moyer, Kevin Tapani.

Seven — Andy Ashby, Denny Neagle, Pete Schourek.

Eight — Greg Maddux (*), Terry Mulholland, Chan Ho Park, Curt Schilling (*), John Smoltz (*).

That would be 35 pitchers off whom Hank Aaron hit five or more bombs, compared to 18 for Barry Bonds, who's never hit more than eight off any pitcher. A pretty impressive performance paper for Bad Henry, that.

But let's see how they did against the Hall of Famers not noted above. In considering Bonds we'll consider Hall of Famers incumbent and in waiting alike. But, first, we'll look at the ones who've never had to watch one fly out on their dimes:

AARON — Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Catfish Hunter, Jim Palmer, Warren Spahn.

BONDS — Roger Clemens, Dennis Eckersley, Pedro Martinez, The Mariano, Nolan Ryan, Bruce Sutter, Don Sutton.

Before you holler "teammates don't count," bear in mind that Warren Spahn was sold to the New York Mets for the 1965 season, and the Mets shipped him on to the San Francisco Giants later the same year. Aaron got to hit against his longtime teammate seven times, getting two hits and a walk and hitting nothing over the fence against the old screwballer.

Now, let's look at the other Hall of Famers against whom they did reach the seats:

AARON

Four — Tom Seaver.

Three — Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton.

Two — Ferguson Jenkins, Nolan Ryan.

One — Jim Bunning.

BONDS

Four — Tom Glavine. (Remember, we count Hall of Famers in waiting here.)

Three — Randy Johnson.

Two — Trevor Hoffman.

And what are the total bombs each man's hit off the Hall of Famers, incumbent or in waiting?

AARON — 69.

BONDS — 33.

Even if you believe that the caliber of pitching in Bonds's time hasn't really been up to the overall caliber of the pitching in Aaron's, even if you believe that Aaron simply got the opportunities to face more Hall of Famers than Bonds, the fact is that Aaron hit at least one bomb off 12 different Hall of Famers to Bonds hitting at least one off six; and, that 36-homer difference between the two men's bomb totals against the Hall of Famers is a huge distinction.

Make of it what you will as Bonds, for better or worse, deservedly or not, stands on the threshold of passing Aaron. Meanwhile, make note from above: there's one Hall of Famer who got to face both men and never had to watch one fly out off either man's bat.

If you're reading, Mr. Eckersley, you have the right to answer the wisenheimers thus: "Yep. I gave up a World Series walk-off shot to a guy who almost couldn't walk around the bases without taking a shot. And I'm also the only Hall of Famer in history who ever kept both Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds in the ballpark!"

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:10 AM | Comments (1)

The Pro Football Hall of Fame's Biggest Snubs

An updated version of this article is available as of 2012.

Five Quick Hits

* The Michael Vick dog-fighting scandal keeps getting worse, but by now I'm used to the idea that Vick forced pit bulls to tear each other to pieces, and that he beat poor performers to death by repeatedly slamming them into the ground.

* What's upsetting me just as much at this point are the reactions of people like Clinton Portis, Emmitt Smith, and Deion Sanders, who really seem to sympathize with Vick and feel like he's being treated unfairly. How big a dog-fighting problem does the NFL have?

* Animal rights groups like PETA have been effective using Vick's dog-fighting problems to highlight this kind of atrocity, but it's time to stop going after Vick — let the league and the feds handle it from here — and focus instead on strengthening states' anti-dog-fighting laws.

* Daunte Culpepper to the Raiders: good move by Oakland, who might be getting a great QB, and at worst have picked up a reason for JaMarcus Russell to hurry up and get into camp.

* Culpepper to the Falcons made a ton of sense. I don't know why Atlanta didn't make it happen.

***

The Pro Football Hall of Fame inducted six new members over the weekend, filling some noteworthy absences in Canton. Thurman Thomas, who should have gone in on the first ballot, was enshrined. Gene Hickerson, a half-century snub who should have been in ages ago, finally made it. Roger Wehrli's induction helps bring the Hall closer to giving defensive backs the credit they deserve. But there are still gaping holes in the Hall's membership. The most obvious way to find these holes is by noticing the makeup of the Hall's membership.

The PFHOF has 249 members. Of these, 47 played before the Modern Era (1946-present), on both offense and defense. Another 21 are coaches, and 17 are what the Hall calls "contributors" — mostly owners, with a few league officials and general managers thrown in. The other 164 are Modern Era players. Of these 164: 23 are quarterbacks, 25 are running backs, 18 are receivers, 7 are tight ends, 32 are offensive linemen, 25 are defensive linemen, 16 are linebackers, 17 are defensive backs, and 1 is a placekicker.

Let's start by examining offense. An NFL offense typically uses one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and five offensive linemen. Given that QB is a uniquely important position, it seems reasonable that quarterbacks would be over-represented in Canton. Looking at the 105 Modern-Era offensive players in the Hall:

* 22% are quarterbacks
* 24% are running backs
* 17% are wide receivers
* 7% are tight ends
* 30% are linemen

Quarterbacks make up 9% of the offensive players on the field. RBs are 18%, but one of those is the fullback — for the last 25 years a blocking position, where no one has been enshrined or even gotten to the semifinals of the voting process (the last fullback voted in was either John Riggins, who retired 22 seasons ago, or John Henry Johnson, whose last season was 1966.) Wide receivers and tight ends combine for over 27% of the offense. Linemen are almost half (45.5%).

What this tells us is that running backs are over-represented in the Hall of Fame — too many are in — at the expense of receivers and linemen.

Wide Receiver

Now that Benny Friedman, Hickerson, and Thomas are in, the biggest HOF snub remaining is Art Monk. Monk is the only eligible Modern-Era player ever to hold the NFL record for career receptions who is not in the Hall of Fame. It's not just Monk who's being left out, though.

Bob Hayes was among the NFL's top ten in both receiving yards and receiving TDs six times. His 73 career TDs put him ahead of both Michael Irvin, who was enshrined over the weekend, and Monk. Hayes was the leading receiver on the Cowboys' 1970 and '71 Super Bowl teams, as well as the great Cowboy teams of the late 1960s, including the one that faced Vince Lombardi's Packers in the Ice Bowl. Hayes is in the Seniors pool now, and was voted down as a Seniors candidate in 2004, the only Seniors candidate turned away in the last ten years.

The voters just don't like enshrining receivers. Besides Monk and Hayes, consider Pittsburgh's Hall of Fame receiving duo of Lynn Swann and John Stallworth, who were turned away a combined 20 times before getting in. James Lofton, who retired with the most receiving yards in league history, couldn't get in until his third season of eligibility. Henry Ellard, who is among the all-time top 15 in both receptions and receiving yards, has never made it past the first round of voting.

The recipe for the Hall to fix this problem: Cris Carter, who becomes eligible this year, should get in easily. But the voters also need to induct Monk and Hayes, with consideration of Otis Taylor, Drew Pearson, Cliff Branch, Ellard, and Andre Reed.

Offensive Line

The Hall has done a good job recently of voting in deserving linemen. In 2000, there were only 26 offensive linemen in Canton. The top candidates for inclusion, some of whom are in the Seniors pool, should include Mick Tingelhoff (center, Vikings), Bob Kuechenberg (guard, Dolphins), Russ Grimm (guard, Washington), Joe Jacoby (tackle, Washington), and three recently eligible candidates: Dermontti Dawson (center, Steelers), Randall McDaniel (guard, Vikings), and Gary Zimmerman (tackle, Vikings and Broncos). It's a travesty that of the Hogs — the famous offensive line that led Washington to four Super Bowls in the '80s and early '90s — none have made it to Canton. Grimm seems to have more momentum right now than Jacoby, but both should be in.

Defense

Of the 164 Modern-Era players enshrined in Canton, only 58 (35%) primarily played defense. Of those players, 25 are defensive linemen, 16 are linebackers, and 17 are defensive backs. What this means, right off the bat, is that the Hall needs more linebackers and DBs. But all of those positions can be broken down further — defensive tackles and ends on the line, inside and outside linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties in the secondary. Safety can even be sub-divided into free safety and strong safety. Here's the most glaring problem: Canton only has five outside linebackers.

Linebacker

Outside linebackers constitute 18% of a defense. They make up 8.5% of defensive players in the Hall, and just 3% of all Modern-Era players. A list of great outside linebackers excluded from Canton includes — in alphabetical order — Maxie Baughan, a nine-time Pro Bowl selection; Joe Fortunato, who was overshadowed by Hall of Fame teammates Bill George and Dick Butkus; Kevin Greene, who ranks third all-time in sacks; Chris Hanburger, who played in nine Pro Bowls; Chuck Howley, a five-time all-pro who was the MVP of Super Bowl V; Dave Robinson, who won three NFL Championships with the Packers; Andy Russell, who went to seven Pro Bowls with the Steel Curtain; Derrick Thomas, who holds the NFL's single-game sack record; and Andre Tippett, the best 1980s OLB this side of Lawrence Taylor and Ted Hendricks. I like Fortunato, Greene, Hanburger, and Howley, but you can make an argument that all of those guys should be in.

Inside linebackers have had better luck, with 12 players in (if you count Chuck Bednarik and George Connor, both of whom also played other positions), but the leading candidate is Randy Gradishar, who anchored the "Orange Crush" defense in the late '70s and early '80s. I've expressed ambivalence about Gradishar in the past, but I do believe he should be in.

Defensive Line

Defensive linemen fare better at selector's meetings than their other defensive teammates, but that doesn't mean they're fairly represented. Chicago's Dan Hampton is the only defensive tackle inducted in the last 12 years, and of soon-to-be-eligible DTs, only John Randle seems to have a good chance of enshrinement. The most glaring omission from the interior defensive line is Curley Culp, who effectively created the position of 3-4 nose tackle.

A number of defensive ends have been HOF finalists or semi-finalists recently, but the selectors don't seem to agree on which ones are deserving. The most successful candidates recently have been Fred Dean, the 49er Dynasty's most dynamic defensive player other than Ronnie Lott; Richard Dent, the MVP of Super Bowl XX; L.C. Greenwood, a six-time Pro Bowler for the Steel Curtain; Charles Haley, the only five-time Super Bowl winner in NFL history; and Claude Humphrey, who made six Pro Bowls with Atlanta in the 1970s. I'm not certain I would vote for any of them, but I'm least supportive of Greenwood, who already has four defensive teammates in Canton, and Haley, who was a fine player but whose main claim to fame was being on the right teams at the right times.

He has generated little support in the past, but it's worthy noting that many people — including two giants of NFL history, Steve Sabol (of NFL Films fame) and Paul Zimmerman (a.k.a. Dr. Z) — consider Rich "Tombstone" Jackson the best player at any position not to have a bust in Canton. What hurts Jackson is a short career of only seven seasons, with only three Pro Bowls and no championship appearances.

Another defensive end I support is Chris Doleman, who officially ranks fourth all-time in sacks. Doleman was a six-time all-pro and eight-time Pro Bowler who is one of only five players to record more than 20 sacks in a single season (since 1982, when the NFL began tracking the statistic). If he hadn't played at the same time as Reggie White and Bruce Smith — all three began their NFL careers in 1985 — Doleman would be considered the greatest defensive end of his era, and maybe one of the best ever.

Defensive Back

Wehrli's induction last weekend marked the first time a defensive back has been enshrined since Ronnie Lott in 2000, and the first for a cornerback in ten years. Hopefully, Wehrli's induction will open the door for Raiders CB Lester Hayes, who made five Pro Bowls and was named Defensive Player of the Year in 1980. Darrell Green, who becomes eligible this season, should be a first-ballot cornerback entry.

Safety, and strong safety in particular, poses a larger problem. Count me among the backers of Cliff Harris, a hard-hitting free safety who played in five Pro Bowls and three Super Bowls with the Cowboys, but has now fallen into the Seniors pool, from which only two candidates per year can be enshrined. At strong safety, I support Steve Atwater, who went to eight Pro Bowls; Kenny Easley, the Seattle DB who won Defensive Player of the Year before his career was shortened by injury; and LeRoy Butler, the best strong safety of the 1990s.

Atwater and Easley have generated little support, and Butler was ignored in his first year on the ballot, but Hayes may have a chance. He'll have to contend, though, with some legendary DBs, and it's unusual for the voters to pick more than one DB per year (the last time was 1989). Green (2007), Rod Woodson (2008), Aeneas Williams (2009), and Deion Sanders (2010) all become eligible soon, and all but Williams are locks.

Special Teams

Even more than defense, special teams are being snubbed by Hall selectors. It wasn't always like this. Detroit safety Jack Christiansen led the NFL in interceptions twice, but he also led the league in punt return TDs four times. He's in as much for his returning as his defense. Christiansen's teammate Yale Lary recorded 50 career interceptions, but he's also one of the greatest punters ever, and probably wouldn't be in Canton without his special teams contributions. Lou "The Toe" Groza was a fine offensive tackle, but he was also an exceptional placekicker. Gale Sayers wouldn't possibly have gotten in without his returning accomplishments. The list goes on.

Today's selectors, though, ignore special team contributions. This is true both for pure special teamers such as Tommy Davis and Steve Tasker, and for great players whose contributions came partly on special teams, such as Herschel Walker, who added 5,000 return yards to his 13,000 yards from scrimmage.

And let me put in a pre-emptive complaint for Brian Mitchell, the greatest returner since Sayers, who will become eligible after next season and probably will never make it to the voting finals, as well as placekicker Gary Anderson, who has a better chance but may have to wait.

Coaches

There are two glaring omissions: Clark Shaughnessy and Don Coryell. Neither had a dazzling résumé as head coach, but both were innovators who changed the game. Shaughnessy only spent two seasons as a head coach — which is why the Seniors committee never picks him — but as an assistant to George Halas, he helped frame the game of football as we know it. Coryell was an assistant on Sid Gillman's legendary Charger teams during the AFL glory years, and he amassed over 100 regular-season victories as head coach of the Rams and Chargers. More than the wins, though, Coryell's contribution was to revolutionize passing offense. The "Air Coryell" Chargers, as they were known, led the NFL in passing offense four seasons in a row, an accomplishment never equaled in the Modern Era.

Miscellaneous

Another category of snubbed players is those from bad teams. Winners are over-represented in Canton. It's appropriate for dynasties to be well-represented, but probably not to the extent that Lombardi's Packers should have 11 Hall of Famers, with three others — Jerry Kramer, Ron Kramer, and Dave Robinson — sometimes mentioned as snubs. The Steel Curtain already has 10 HOF members, not including L.C. Greenwood and Donnie Shell, both of whom have been finalists.

Good players on great teams have a better chance of being enshrined than great players from bad teams, and while winning is the goal of the sport, Hall induction is an individual honor. Over-inclusion of certain teams and positions is part of what keeps deserving players out, and the selectors need to be aware of the biases they and their predecessors have shown. Having said that, recent dynasties have been more moderately represented in Canton.

One player from a recent dynasty who should be in is Daryl "Moose" Johnston. Unquestionably the finest fullback of his era, Johnston has gotten no support from the Hall voters, but his lead blocks were just as important to Emmitt Smith's success as were those of the offensive line. No position should be ignored by the voters — especially one as critical as fullback was for the 1990s Cowboys.

The All-Snub Team

Having acknowledged that some positions actually have too many members in the Canton, here is my All-Snub Team, listing the best eligible player not in the Hall of Fame at every position.

First Team

QB Ken Anderson
RB Terrell Davis
FB Daryl Johnston
WR Art Monk
WR Bob Hayes
TE Todd Christensen
C Dermontti Dawson
G Russ Grimm
G Jerry Kramer
OT Gary Zimmerman
OT Joe Jacoby

DT Curley Culp
DT Alex Karras
DE Rich Jackson
DE Chris Doleman
OLB Chuck Howley
OLB Chris Hanburger
ILB Randy Gradishar
CB Lester Hayes
CB Lemar Parrish
FS Cliff Harris
SS Kenny Easley

K Mark Moseley
P Tommy Davis
ST Steve Tasker

Coach Clark Shaughnessy

Get ready to beat the NFL odds this season by signing up early for the picks offered by the BetFirms handicappers.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:09 AM | Comments (17)

In Bonds, Did We Create a Longball Monster?

This week, Barry Bonds brought his quest for the all-time home run mark back to friendly San Francisco. Had he tied or passed Hammerin' Hank Aaron Monday night, baseball Commissioner Bud Selig would not have been in attendance. When Aaron broke Babe Ruth's record of 714 homers on a Monday night in April 1974, then-Commissioner Bowie Kuhn was nowhere to be seen, having begged off to a previous engagement to speak to the Wahoo Club (Indians baseball fans) of Cleveland.

One important thing to remember about Bonds is that for all the sentiment to preserve Aaron's record today, millions opposed Aaron in his own quest 33 years ago. The Braves star received hate mail, death threats, and was still afraid when two young fans approached him as he rounded third base after breaking Babe Ruth's hallowed mark. He had no way at the time, in light of all the threats, to know if they meant him harm or not. Babe Ruth was an untouchable cultural hero in 1974 (and even in 1961, when a white player, Roger Maris, broke his single-season home run record). The Hammer has never been such.

Concerning performance enhancing drugs (PEDs), Bonds may not have been the only culprit in the game. Barry had a lifetime slugging pct. of .550 before the Mark McGwire/Sammy Sosa assault on Roger Maris' 61 homers — then posted seasons of .863 and .812 after his 36th birthday. The player who had never hit more than 46 homers, and whose second best was 42, hit 49 and 73 in back-to-back seasons. The 190-pounder filled out to 230. He experienced (and still does) the knee and joint injuries associated with PED usage — when a body carries more weight than is suited to its skeletal frame. He was productive at age 40, when bat speed, recovery time from injuries, and other things generally fail a hitter.

Had Bonds hit the tying and record-breaking homers on the road, and fans booed, he wouldn't have cared. At least that's what he'd say. This issue, however, is bigger than the hefty leftfielder. The most revered and memorized individual record in sport is tainted, at least until Alex Rodriguez nears age 40. No one knows how many TD passes Dan Marino threw, how many points Kareem Abdul-Jabbar scored, how many yards Walter Payton rushed for, or how many consecutive days Cal Ripken, Jr. showed up for work. Sports fans do know 755 (and long before that, they knew 714). Home runs are a huge deal (after Ripken's record, McGwire and Sosa helped revive interest in the game with a home run chase). Bonds may not have even begun seeking for non-detectable PEDs had it not been for the magic summer of '98 and the attention it garnered, even in the mainstream media.

Barry Bonds, by all accounts (teammates, workout partners, media, ex-girlfriends), may well have been a jerk before McGwire and Sosa launched their twin pursuit of Roger Maris' single-season home run record of 61. We, however, created the Barry many love to hate now — the man who broke The Record. Our American love affair with the home run most likely triggered an emotion within Bonds after 1998, due to the attention given Mighty Mac (McGwire) and Smilin' Sammy (Sosa). The love affair didn't begin in 1998, but rather during the Golden Age of Sport, with Ruth. The larger-than-life "Bambino" helped save the sport, too — from the Great Depression and the Black Sox Scandal.

Prior to 1998, the decade of the 1990s had been one in which baseball's most interesting debate was as to who was the premier player in the game — Seatttle Mariner centerfielder Ken Griffey, Jr. or Bonds. Both were the sons of prominent outfielders, 1970s stars. Griffey was much younger, and tapped by none other than Hank Aaron as the player most likely to threaten his all-time home run standard. Griffey was not yet 29 in 1998, but had won an MVP award, hit 56 homers in both 1997 and '98, and had a 49-homer season behind him. He'd played in nine All-Star Games, yet was under 30. His ebullient public persona was the antithesis' of Bonds' curt, matter-of-fact manner.

Bonds was 34 then, had never hit more than 46 homers, but had three MVP awards. Because Griffey played the much more demanding position, centerfield, and was to most the more complete of the two players, many argued he was the better player. Four years after a bitter baseball work stoppage that ended the 1994 season on August 11, along came McGwire and Sosa, their towering home runs diverting attention away from Bonds and Griffey.

Having one rival was bad enough, but now Bonds had three (and other stars such as Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez were garnering publicity for their slugging prowess; the closest in age, Thomas, being four years younger than Bonds). This was the context in 1998, when Bonds hit 37 homers, 1999 when he parked only 34 (about half of either McGwire or Sosa's '98 output), then 49 in 2000, an anomalous 73 in 2001, and 46 in 2002.

A player who was 38-years-old had removed several younger sluggers from the sports page headlines, and transformed his career. A player few fans outside the Bay Area felt any admiration towards, and with almost no sympathy from the sporting press. This, coupled with the fact that his trainer was being indicted for conspiracy to distribute steroids (which are illegal, but were not banned by Major League Baseball in 2001), charges he pleaded guilty to in 2005. Greg Anderson refuses to implicate Bonds.

In December, 2003, however, Bonds admitted before a federal grand jury having used the performance enhancing steroid applications called "the cream" and "the clear", but testified he thought they were "flaxseed oil." That was the last straw for many fans and media, as enough of us have played at least a high school sport to know that, even at a scholastic level, athletes know the nature and benefits of every workout routine they are doing, and each substance they are taking into their body. Surely, a baseball all-star would, too.

There are other suspect accomplishments in sport — from juiced cyclists to officiated NBA games to record sprint times. There are other controversial candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame, such as McGwire and Pete Rose. Rafael Palmeiro may never be voted in. But sometime soon, because of lack of chemical evidence, Henry Aaron will not be the all-time home run king, and Willie Mays will move down to fourth place. We know Barry Bonds can live with that, but why should the rest of us and Mr. Aaron have to?

Posted by Bijan C. Bayne at 11:07 AM | Comments (0)

August 7, 2007

10 Tips For Striking Fantasy Football Gold

When middle-aged ex-athletes are looking for contentment, few things do the trick. Activities like an afternoon drive with the family (assuming, of course, that the baby is resting comfortably in her car seat and the boy is adequately entertained by his Pokeman cards or Game Boy), a pickup basketball game at the local YMCA, or a Tom Cruise movie marathon (not some "Mission: Impossible," "Eyes Wide Shut" garbage ... I'm talking "Color of Money," "Days of Thunder," and "Top Gun" here) certainly do temporarily fill any void.

However, nothing contents that desk-jockey-by-day/armchair-quarterback-by-night quite like realizing that the fantasy football draft is only weeks away.

Fantasy football has become a multi-million dollar industry in the U.S. Countless websites, magazines, television shows, and blogs have been born over recent history, each providing cutting-edge insight, foolproof predictions, and fail-safe advice for league domination. One may ask oneself what qualifies such individuals to make such bold statements on such theoretical results? Is there some mystical formula or crystal ball that can be used to determine which running back is going to get in the end zone 20 times?

Obviously, there is no magic to these so-called experts. Some base their theories on past performances, others on sheer hypothetical conjecture, still others on personal preference. Unfortunately, there is no way for a reader to determine which source has ample qualifications to be trusted as your source. Heck, for all you know, that magazine you bring with you to your draft could have been made by a bunch of twenty-somethings throwing darts at a board in some college dorm room in upstate Vermont.

As I type this article in my home office, basking in the shadow of my 2006 fantasy football league championship trophy, I wonder to myself how I can make my article any more relevant than those I have just dismissed. Realistically, there is no effective way for a freelance sports writer such as myself to portray any more legitimate a take on fantasy football predictions than a sports institution like ESPN or The Sporting News.

There is a strong likelihood that those among you that are in the market for fantasy football advice may well feel more comfortable trusting one of those sports mega-outlets. I can't say that I blame you, if this is the case; after all, those info-for-hire services certainly do have your best interests in mind — how else would they get you to subscribe to their service again next year?

Likewise, I'm sure there are many readers who do just fine with their own strategies and value charts. And to those, I commend your efforts and only hope one day our paths may cross in some fantasy football venue so we can put our systems to the test against one another.

Having thrown down the gauntlet, so to speak, I do fully intend to put my hypothetical money where my mouth is. No, I'm not going to invite all of you into some super-sized fantasy football league to prove to you that I am more than just a bunch of fancy words and braggadocio. Rather, I'm going to expose my draft day strategy for the world to see and give you all the opportunity to adopt it as your own.

So, with no further ado, read on for 10 draft day suggestions sure to pave the way to a successful fantasy football campaign.

1. Learn the Rules

Seems silly to say, really, but if you don't know how the scoring system works in your league, then you will have a very difficult time drafting a team best suited for those rules. For those veteran fantasy participants out there, this advice goes without saying, as you are well aware of all the different scoring and lineup scenarios available to a league commissioner. For those rookies, trust me when I say you should spend 30 minutes before your draft pouring over your league's particulars, however mundane and obvious they may seem. Ignorance may be bliss, but it certainly won't lead to any fantasy sports glory.

2. Know Your Opponents

Come draft day, participants will show up for the draft in their favorite teams' hats, jerseys, and in extreme cases, mascot outfits. They'll also be in an excitement-induced sports frenzy, easily cajoled into surrendering all sorts of helpful info should you choose to push the right buttons. Use this to your advantage. Schmooze the owners to your left and to your right ... take notes of what players they seem to light up over when mentioned ... learn their favorite team. All of this info could prove very useful in discussing trade opportunities or determining which players may be overvalued and undervalued by these owners. Like "tells" in Texas Hold 'em, this is info that you can use to your advantage when determining your own strategy as the draft unfolds.

3. Leave Your Team Colors at Home

As much as you want to identify your opponents strategy leading into the draft, your opponents would love nothing more than to do the same to you. Don't let them. Even if this is the one day a year you feel you can justify leaving the house in your ratty old Cleveland Browns sweatshirt, save it for Sundays. I will throw in the one caveat that if you are playing in a league with friends, this item is a moot point, as they certainly already are well aware of your allegiances.

4. Rate Your Own

While I don't recommend spending tens of hours developing and fine-tuning your very own rating system, I also don't recommend just grabbing any old fantasy football preview magazine on the way to the draft and using that publication's rankings to pick your team. It is important to understand that those rankings are quite likely not going to be based on your league's scoring system.

Here are two tips that will help you rate your own players: first, compile a positional depth chart to use as a guide. Do you want two or three QBs? How many total RB/WRs do you want? Having such a list will give you an outline on which you can base your draft and will help keep clarity in your selection process.

Second, find a magazine or an online ranking that includes projected statistics for 2007. Then take those stats and factor in your league's scoring system to project your own list relative to your league. For example, if Publication X has Peyton Manning projected to throw for 4,000 yards, 30 TDs ,and 15 INTs and your league gives you 1 point for every 50 yards passing, 6 points for each TD and –3 points for each INT, than you can figure Manning is good for 215 fantasy points in '07 ((4000/50) + (30 x 6) – (15 x 3) = 215). Taking the extra hour or so that building such a list would involve will pay off big time come draft day.

5. Trade Early

Many experts will tell you to stand pat on draft day and worry about trading after the rosters are initially set. It has been my experience that such a strategy is not as effective as one would think. First of all, savvy owners will draft players simply because they know that you either covet those players or that they are "handcuffs," or backups, to a player you've already drafted. Then, when it comes time to make a trade, they have an advantage as they'll dealing with assets you likely overvalue.

Second, if you wind up drafting early in the first round, you will have access to only a single top-tier player, which puts you at a disadvantage before the players are even selected. For me, it makes more sense to offer picks in rounds two and three for a second first round choice and a fifth rounder. Though this may seem like your giving up a lot, keep things in perspective. What you are gaining is access to two of the top 10 players in the draft (assuming 10 teams in your league), while still having all five of your picks in the all-important rounds 1-5.

Taking this strategy a step further, once you've made such a trade, use your two first round picks on top-tier running backs, then hang tight and grab a QB in round four; you're still going to have your choice of a quality passer and won't have to worry about reaching on a marginal running back to fill a key position, which is what you'd have done with your second and third round picks, anyway.

NOTE: If you are drafting in one of the last two spots of a serpentine draft, this strategy may be wasted motion. A good rule of thumb is to try to get two of the top 12 picks.

6. Don't Pile on at One Position

Many draft day strategists will tell you that you should try to monopolize one of the primary positions on draft day, be it receiver, quarterback, or running back. The thought behind this strategy is you'll be in great position to tailor your team through post-draft trading. In my opinion, this is a flawed strategy, as it leaves holes elsewhere on your team that may well haunt you for the entire campaign. While there is some merit to such a strategy (if done properly), I would recommend that you instead spend your valuable picks grabbing applicable handcuffs and backups to your core players and concentrate on drafting a full roster, which leads me to my next point...

7. Never Settle

There is a perception among many fantasy football owners that some positions just aren't as valuable as others. This is the unequivocal truth — a kicker won't get you as many points as a running back — however, I believe this vein of thought is also quite flawed. Every team owner must play a kicker in every game. If your kicker consistently scores more than your opponent's, then you have a scoring advantage right off the bat. Likewise for defenses or individual defenders (depending on league setup) and tight end. In most cases, these are the positions that will be undervalued, which will allow you to grab the player(s) at these positions you want without having to reach for them.

So, while it is totally true that some positions score you more points than other positions, it is not true that this makes the lesser scoring position that much less important as everyone must play those lesser positions. Rather than taking the "wait and see" approach to who you get to draft at these positions, be the aggressor on draft day.

8. Trust Your Rankings

This point dovetails nicely with the previous item. DO NOT skip players on your draft sheet just because they play a position you feel isn't as important as the others. Trusting your rankings becomes much easier the more work you put into ranking your players. However, even if you take the simplest approach, you must not deviate from your pre-draft plan. This will minimize the snake-oil-selling competitors' abilities to manipulate the draft in their favor (and trust me, they will try, even if you don't know that is what they're doing).

If you have a kicker rated higher than the highest available receiver in say, round 12, then you should not hesitate to take that kicker. Second-guessing these rankings is not a good practice; the projections are what they are for a reason and, as they stay, stats rarely lie.

9. Don't Panic

Probably the best piece of advice I can give is not to worry about how the draft is shaping up in the event that it is not going as planned. Competitive teams are made in the first five rounds of the draft, but championships are won in the middle and late rounds. The worst thing you can do as a drafting owner is reach for lesser talent at a "hot" position simply because the list of players at that position got shorter quicker than you'd expected. Rather than panicking and making a marginal decision, take a deep breath and draft the highest rated player left on your list, regardless of position, especially early on.

Ultimately, if you wind up with the more productive players at positions like kicker, tight end, and wide receiver, it won't matter that your opponent each week gets more points from their No. 2 RB. I like to call this T.J. Duckett Syndrome because Duckett is perceived as a short yardage, goal-line back playing on a team with a smallish No. 1 option, you would assume he's the red zone runner. As such, he looks like a good pick once many of the starting and primary backup runners have already been selected, so he is invariably picked three rounds higher than he should be. I haven't played in a league yet where Duckett hasn't become trade fodder midway through the season. Don't fall prey to this terrible affliction; let your competitor's scramble for the Greg Joneses and Kevan Barlows of the world while you stick to your draft day plan.

10. Have Fun

Finally, remember why you started playing fantasy football in the first place: to have a good time! Even if you have the best team in fantasy football history, none of it is worthwhile if you don't enjoy the participation aspect of the game. Even if you aren't doing so well, if you are enjoying the experience and remaining involved your luck is bound to change. If nothing else, at least that brutal mid-winter Buffalo at New York Jets matchup now has some draw ... come on, Lee Evans!

Following these simple 10 guidelines will get you on your way to that championship season you've been hoping for. Keep an eye out on this website for my player rankings for even more tips on how to have a successful fantasy campaign in 2007!

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:51 AM | Comments (3)

The Celtics Are Moving Forward

When Kevin Garnett was traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Boston Celtics, many NBA columnists, basketball experts, and message board "gurus" (as we often think of ourselves) discussed the age-old argument of "future prospects" versus "winning now."

We all can agree that Danny Ainge traded away many talented young players for one superstar in return. What we seem to disagree on, however, is whether it was worth it or not.

I'll recap the trade for you who don't know the specifics:

Boston received: Kevin Garnett

Minnesota received: Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, and two future first-round draft picks

To add to that, the Ray Allen trade with the Sonics must also be put into consideration. The Celtics obtained Ray Allen on a draft-day deal along with the 35th overall pick (Glen Davis) for Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and the fifth overall pick (Jeff Green).

So, with the two deals being made, the Celtics gave up six players under 25 years of age that are packed with potential, two extra draft picks, and a guy who has averaged over 15 ppg for his career. All of this for two aging superstars and a second-rounder.

The question of "was it worth it" cannot be answered now. However, in five years, we'll all know whether this was the greatest trade of all-time or the biggest fire-sale in history.

The Celtics had a very talented young squad that, quite frankly, wasn't going anywhere. Last year, these "studs" were fighting for the rights to Gred Oden or Kevin Durant rather than fighting for any chance of making the playoffs. Sure, Gerald Green will be a star one day soon, Al Jefferson will be a star one day sooner, and Jeff Green might be the name Celtics fans hate to see for years to come. However, while the future is always loaded with prospects and players with potential, the "now" is the most important thing of all.

Right now, the Celtics have three superstars all eager to win a championship.

Whether they can do it with a major lack of a supporting cast is the real question. If the Celtics go on to the NBA Finals three times in the next five years, it was worth it. If they win the Finals once in the next five years, it was worth it. If the Celtics become and remain a big name in the Eastern Conference for the next five years, it was worth it.

Winning is always more important than the future, because the future is usually built on the "now."

Many young teams know the struggles that are faced with young players and potential. They always have them, but they rarely hold on to them throughout their prime. Along with that, no established vet wants to join a team with potential over the chance to be a part of a championship contender. There is a reason why Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Gary Payton wore Miami jerseys last year; there is a reason Karl Malone and Gary Payton joined the Lakers in 2003-04; and there is a reason why the Celtics can be surer of their future now than they were before giving away their youngsters.

By trading away their future, the Celtics not only established themselves as a contender now, but they also put themselves in a better position to win for years to come. With Garnett, Pierce, and Allen on the same team for years to come, barring injuries or trades, this team has the ability to beat anybody in the league at any given time — something that the Celtics haven't been able to say for years.

The only way things can turn sour again in Beantown is if Danny Ainge magically morphs back into, well, Danny Ainge and messes things up again. For now, however, Celtic fans should be ecstatic about the possibilities surrounding this team and their future.

Posted by Chad Kettner at 11:40 AM | Comments (3)

August 6, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: Denver Broncos

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

The Kansas City Chiefs needed to catch more breaks than Paris Hilton at an STD test to make the playoffs on the final week of the regular season and thanks to the Denver Broncos' failure against the San Francisco 49ers — among other things — the Chiefs made it in.

One week does not sum up a season, especially for the Broncos, who grew, shrunk, impressed, and disappointed throughout all of last season.

They started on a positive tip, stifling their opponents defensive and holding them to 10 points or less for the first seven weeks.

But then the Broncos faced their kryptonite, the Indianapolis Colts. They were shook and made into a slave in the page of the Colts' rhyme book, which hurt their confidence the rest of the way.

A large part of the problem was quarterback Jake Plummer, who was having his worst season as a member of the Denver Broncos. His completion percentage was just at 55.2% and his quarterback rating, which hovered around 90 in his three previous seasons, finished at 68.8. More importantly, his interceptions outnumbered his touchdowns for the first time in Denver.

Compounding the problems was the backfield, which has traditionally always been a strength.

The Bells, Tatum and Mike, were just barely adequate, although coach Mike Shanahan didn't have confidence in either one. Interestingly enough, when Tatum got hurt in the Colts game, both he and the offense were never the same afterwards. Tatum battled turf toes, which is a major hindrance for his home run speed.

After starting 7-2, then slipping into a two-game losing streak, Shanahan felt he had nothing to lose by inserting rookie quarterback Jay Cutler into the starting lineup.

Cutler was thrown into the fire and lost his first two games to eventual playoff teams, Seattle and San Diego. But even so, Cutler gave the Broncos a better chance to win than Plummer, and seemed more comfortable starting than most other rookie quarterbacks.

For the first time in a while, the Broncos' offensive line was not a strong unit. The coaches weren't too happy with the performance of tackle George Foster, while the Broncos lost their other tackle, Matt Lepsis, for the season after six games. Cutler was sacked 13 times in five games and even though they only allowed 31 sacks, that was still their most allowed since 2002.

On defense, the Broncos finally found a couple of legitimate cornerbacks to complement All-Pro Champ Bailey. Dominique Foxworth was a solid nickel back while Darrent Williams, who nailed down the starting role opposite of Bailey, was also a nice boost as a punt returner.

The main issue with the Broncos defense is the same issues it has been for last five years: they don't generate enough pressure.

Quarterbacks frequently had a lot of time to pick apart their secondary and even though they had a talent group of defensive backs, they were asked to cover too long.

This is one of the reasons that the Colts and their prolific passing game have dominated the Broncos (see the Colts' 2007 game-winning drive versus Denver).

Using Letters to Breakdown Numbers: Pass Rush

The Broncos defense has been right around 35 sacks per season over the past five years, but their pressure has been far from consistent.

While they did have their share of sack artists last year (Elvis Dumervil: 8.5, Ebenezer Ekuban: 7, Kenard Lang: 6), nobody will ever mix up the Broncos' pass rush with the San Diego Chargers.

In 2005, the Broncos line accounted for a measly 15 sacks.

There is no semblance of dominance here. Another way of saying that is that there is no real consistency.

Against New England, Indianapolis, Seattle, and both San Diego contests, the Broncos accumulated only four sacks, three of which were by the defensive line.

Last year — and for the last few years — the Broncos have had a number of quality parts along the long (Trevor Pryce and Reggie Hayward to name a couple), but they haven't had a cornerstone.

As of now, the Broncos have a few complementing pieces who can generate sacks, but don't necessarily open up opportunities for others.

Players like Tommie Harris or Julius Peppers ‚ obvious franchise players that are not readily available — are the type of players that could headline this unit. These type of guys attract attention on every single snap, which will make the complementary pieces like Dumervil, Ekuban, and Lang significantly better.

Clearly, the Broncos agree since they spent their first two draft picks (and three of their four) on defensive linemen, in search of that one special guy who can help take this unit — and defense — to the next level.

What Happened to That Running Back Factory?

On draft day, many people speculated that Tatum Bell would eventually put up Clinton Portis numbers. All right, so that didn't work out.

For years, the Broncos have always had an in-house solution in the backfield. From Terrell Davis, to Portis, to Orlandis Gary, to Reuben Droughs, to Mike Anderson. Last year, they it was supposed to be one of the Bells, but the plan didn't come to fruition. So for the first time in a while, the Broncos have looked to free agency to fill their starting spot and they've caught a big fish this year.

At an NFL combine, Travis Henry probably wouldn't rank first in many categories. But Henry is "very good" at almost everything and is a perfect fit for the Broncos.

For starters, Henry's five-year, $22.5 million contract is very reasonable given the demands of many other backs.

Secondly, Henry has proven that he can handle wear and tear, as well as adversity, particularly after Buffalo ditched him. He has also shown a willingness to learn and improve on his weaknesses. After three NFL seasons, Henry was labeled as a fumbler after coughing up 13 in his first three years. He has only lost two since.

Henry has worked in a similar offense before and should post some career-highs in Denver.

Should I Be Worried About Cutler?

It might not be fair to call Jake Plummer a scumbag, but I am going to shortly.

The Broncos have been a playoff team and an AFC contender for the past four seasons with Jake Plummer. With that scumbag under center, Broncos fans and coaches have been holding their breath each week hoping that Plummer doesn't cost them the game.

With Cutler leading the way, the Broncos can't — and won't — be worse. The Broncos will be a more confident team behind Cutler, who is a natural leader and has legitimate franchise quarterback talent.

Expect him to have some rough patches, but the Broncos are adept at dealing with a quarterback that can give away the game at any point.

The Broncos will go as far as Cutler can take them this year and while he won't have to win them many games, he should be ready to. A full offseason of work will speed up his growth and considering his poise in the final two games last season, as well as the confidence everyone surrounding the team is investing in him, I wouldn't be too worried.

Super Bowl-Bound?

The Broncos' offensive line, running game, and passing game will be much better this season.

I've dealt with the quarterback and running back situation, so let's move on to the other parts.

While Rod Smith's career may be on the fringes, the Broncos finally have enough receiving weapons with or without him.

Javon Walker put his injuries behind him and showed his playmaking ability last year, which makes him the top target. Behind him, there are injury concerns all the way around.

Brandon Marshall looks like the best No. 2 candidate, but he has battled various minor injuries that have kept him from repetitions on the field. Domenik Hixon could be a good complement, but missed his entire rookie campaign. Smith and free agent Brandon Stokley are also off serious injuries from a year ago.

If all healthy, the Broncos should have a corps that can range from adequate to dangerous.

The Broncos have a numbers of tight ends who can alleviate pressure and add to the passing game. Tony Scheffler, who recovering from a broken foot, is an excellent receiving tight end with downfield capabilities. The Broncos also signed free agent Daniel Graham, who is an excellent blocker and a decent receiver.

The Broncos have so many passing options here that Cutler could have a field day once he finds his feet. And the Broncos will always have a potent run game to fall back on.

On defense, the Broncos have done a makeover on their defensive line, adding Sam Adams, Jimmy Kennedy, Tim Crowder, and Jarvis Moss. The most important addition may be the one on the sidelines as the Broncos hired an excellent defensive coordinator in Jim Bates. The Broncos have been too much of a basic defense under Larry Coyer.

Adams had arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason and the hope is that he still has something left in the tank. If he does, combined with a healthy Gerard Warren, the Broncos will once again clog the gaps in the center of the line.

The Broncos are hoping that Moss can be special for them right off the bat. If he is, combined with the attention that Adams and Warren should receive, the pass rush should be improved. At the very least, the Broncos have enough talent to keep mixing in players until they find the right rotation.

The linebacking corp — also a strength for so many recent seasons — poses a couple of trepidations.

Defensive leader and captain Al Wilson was released and will be replaced in the middle by D.J. Williams. Williams has never played there before, but he has the talent to be an asset in the middle, as well.

The major problem is that with Williams shifting to the inside, it leaves a gaping hole on the outside. Warrick Holdman, who started in Washington last season, will probably keep the job. He's not a game-breaker, but he should be decent.

After the tragic death of Darrent Williams, the Broncos bounced back quickly and acquired a former Pro Bowler, Dre Bly. He'll see a lot of passes his way since no one throws at Bailey, but should be able to hold his own. Sometimes he's overly aggressive and gives up big plays as a result.

With an improved scheme and the additions of Moss and Bly, the Broncos defense also has taken steps in a positive direction.

The offense and defense are both Super Bowl-caliber. There is balance all the way through and this team can go to the Super Bowl if Cutler can take them there.

New England Patriots Killers

Not many teams have defeated the Patriots in the past six seasons, but the Broncos are one team that has their number. They have faced each other five times since 2001 and the Broncos have won four of the meetings. The Broncos know how to beat New England and are one of the few teams that will be capable of stopping them this year. But everything works in reverse if the Broncos have to face the Colts in the playoffs...

Biggest Weakness: Proven Commodities At QB, DE, OLB — The Broncos are a veteran team, but with Cutler, a influx of young defensive ends, and some anxiety at the spot that D.J. Williams vacated, there aren't any proven solution quite yet.

Offensive X-Factor: Jay Cutler — Quite simply, the Broncos will go as far as he can take them. That might be the third time in this article I've said that.

Defensive X-Factor: Jim Bates — Bates worked magic in Miami and then Green Bay. The Broncos need his touch to get them to the next level.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

For the past decade, the Denver backfield has been a fantasy gold mine. Every year, experts are dissecting how the carries will be shared and who might possibly be the main guy. Now that Travis Henry is that guy, people are waiting until rounds two or three to pick him up. Broncos running backs have rarely made it past round two in recent drafts and the guys with Henry's talent have usually been top five or six. Henry should finish around 1,500 yards rushing with upwards of more than 7 touchdowns.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:12 AM | Comments (0)

2007 NFL Preview: Tight Ends

If you're a football fan, I hope you had the time to watch all six induction speeches at the NFL Pro Football Hall of Fame on Saturday.

Gene Hickerson. Thurman Thomas. Michael Irvin. Charlie Sanders. Roger Wehrli. Bruce Matthews. Each one said something profound, and I'm a better person for the few hours I spent listening to their stories.

I'll admit there was also an element of jealousy to the evening. It wasn't from an athletic standpoint. I've been outclassed in that regard since very early on in this life. But when I heard Wehrli and his presenter, Larry Wilson, thank St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz, I felt it.

It's not that I begrudge Miklasz (or Don Pierson from the Chicago Tribune or Tony Grossi from the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, both of whom were thanked by Hickerson's son, Bob Hickerson). From all accounts, Miklasz was integral to Wehrli finally being inducted after two decades of eligibility. He made a good man's life better, and I imagine it must be an extreme source of pride to have your family name included at such a momentus occasion.

But it's not the glory of a name that impressed me most. What struck me was the impact a good writer and journalist can have on the world he covers. Miklasz has forever impacted Wehrli, his family and the history of professional football.

Impact. In the end, that's all any writer wants to achieve.

I respect Miklasz, Pierson and Grossi for their accomplishments, and I envy their impact. W. Clement Stone would call it inspirational dissatisfaction - I am dissatisfied because I have not yet achieved that by which I am inspired.

***

Believe it or not, this column was not intended as an ode to Miklasz, who has given me no aid in my continuing efforts to force the Post-Dispatch to pay me to do what I already do for free.

This is still a preview column focused on NFL tight ends in 2007. There are fantasy leagues to win. We've got work to do.

In honor of another Hall of Famer inducted Saturday, Detroit Lions TE Charlie Sanders, we're going to count down the tight ends by chances of joining the Hall themselves. Sanders was number seven at the position. Tony Gonzalez will be number eight, unless former Raider Todd Christensen gets in first (which I don't think he will). Are there any others?

Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs

He's a first-ballot guy without a doubt. Fifty-nine or more receptions for nine consecutive seasons, seven of those with 70-plus. Had 102 receptions in 2004, 61 total touchdowns. If this is a fantasy draft, Antonio Gates takes the one slot. But from a Hall perspective, the conversation begins with Gonzalez.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

In just four seasons, Gates already has more than half the number of touchdowns (34) as Gonzalez has in 10. Considering he's in a great offense with all of the main contributors still in their prime, there's a good shot Gates becomes the new historic standard for tight end production.

Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns

This is high for a guy who has exactly one year of productive professional football on his resume, but it was a hell of year (89 receptions for 875) considering the mess of an offense he was operating in. Really, this is a vote of confidence in Brady Quinn. If you think Quinn-to-Winslow has the same potential as Philip Rivers-to-Gates in San Diego, then you push him high. If you don't, you don't. I do.

Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens

Going into every year, there's been the anticipation of this being the year Heap breaks through for a 90-catch, 12-TD season. But here we are, going into year seven, and his career high in receptions is 75. He's never had a 900-yard season. He's a great player, but right now, the "never the best" argument is in effect.

Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants

I love watching Shockey play. He brings an enthusiasm and toughness to the game that pumps up the crowd and both teams. And he's had decent production over the first five seasons of his career (four seasons above 60 receptions; 20 touchdowns over the past three years). But he's had to miss at least one game every season and seems to be limping every other play. If he can string together a few 80-catch seasons and keep up the scoring, he can work his way into Hall consideration.

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

You might be surprised to see Witten ranked so highly, but he's got 217 receptions for 2,491 yards and 13 TDs over the past three seasons. He's got a young quarterback entering his prime and plays in a balanced offense. If he can keep up the production and increase his scoring, he's in the conversation.

Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams

McMichael greatly increased his potential by joining the Rams this offseason. He's now got the opportunity to play in one of the most balanced offenses in the league, with one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and for a head coach who used to be his offensive coordinator. He's only 28, so he could have the better part of a decade with high production ahead of him.

Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins

He's had decent production through the first three years (165 receptions, 19 TDs), and should have a good year ahead with second-year QB Jason Campbell looking for his check-down a lot (as all new starters do). Can he put up the numbers over the next decade to become a legit Hall candidate? I don't know. The real question is whether Art Monk will have finally made it in by the time Cooley retires. (I hope so. He deserves it.)

Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons

I've always thought Crumpler's fantasy reputation surpassed his production. In six years, he's only topped 60 catches and 800 yards once (65 for 877 in 2005). The demolition of Michael Vick's career might actually help Crumpler, since a normal quarterback (translation: somebody who can get more yards checking down than running) will probably use him more, especially if the receiving corps doesn't develop.

Ben Watson, New England Patriots

Watson has the raw skill to be one of the best ever, but I'm not sure he'll ever get the opportunity in New England to put up the stats to prove it. The Pats offense is about spreading the ball, so no one player really stands to break out with astronomical numbers. But Watson has the talent, the quarterback and the team reputation to make a Hall case.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers

Miller has shown flashes of brilliance, but not the consistent production over his first two years. The change in coaching staff, with the more wide-open offense we saw last night at the Hall of Fame Game, might bode well. Not only is Miller a great fantasy sleeper for 2007, but he's a Hall sleeper as well.

Eric Johnson, New Orleans Saints

We know Johnson has breakout potential, with 82 catches in 2004, but an injury wiped out 2005 and the arrival of Vernon Davis cut into his chances last year. The escape from San Francisco, where Davis is going to continue to be the focus, raises Johnson's career ceiling. With only 7 scores in 57 career games, he's going to need to get into the end zone a lot more to garner serious Hall consideration.

L.J. Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

It seems like he's been around a lot longer than just four years, but Smith is only 27. His production up until now has been good, but not great (61 and 50 receptions the past two years, respectively). With no major changes in the offense on the horizon (except for maybe at QB), there's no real reason to expect a dramatic jump from what we've already seen.

Ben Utecht / Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts

Alone, you could make a case that either guy in the Colts offense has the potential to put up Hall numbers (with Clark the more likely, though also the more injury-prone). But with both on the same team, neither is going to get enough of a personal spotlight. I guess Super Bowl rings are just going to have to be enough.

Daniel Graham, Denver Broncos

Graham was used more as a blocker with the Pats, so the move to Denver might give a jump start to his offensive production. Still, with only 120 career receptions in five years, he would have to quadruple his annual stats to end up with Hall-worthy career totals. Being a great blocker just isn't enough.

Too Early To Tell

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars
Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
Owen Daniels, Houston Texans
Alex Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ben Troupe, Tennessee Titans
Leonard Pope, Arizona Cardinals
Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders

It may well turn out these guys put up much better numbers than the guys ahead of them. But putting rookies and first- and second-year guys in a Hall of Fame conversation is generally premature. Give it a year or two. From a fantasy perspective, watch out for Miller. He's a poor man's Todd Heap.

No, But Still Personal Favorites

Jim Kleinsasser, Minnesota Vikings
Jermaine Wiggins, Jacksonville Jaguars

I always enjoy watching them play, so they get their own category.

Just No

Marcus Pollard, Seattle Seahawks
Chris Baker, New York Jets
Michael Gaines, Carolina Panthers
David Martin, Miami Dolphins
Robert Royal, Buffalo Bills
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Bubba Franks, Green Bay
Reggie Kelley, Cincinnati Bengals

It's not that these guys stink or anything. But, for one reason or another, they haven't had elite production. That fact is not likely to change.

Also see: NFL '07 Preview: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers

Seth Doria is a writer in St. Louis. He writes for the love. The Left Calf. Hi, Mom.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

Europe's Last Frontier Beckons

It's been 77 years since Tommy Armour became the last European-born player to triumph in the PGA Championship. Along with Jim Barnes (1916 and 1919) and Jock Hutchinson (1920), born in England and Scotland, respectively, he had acquired U.S. citizenship some time before his name adorned the Wanamaker trophy, however.

Of the three U.S.-based major championships, the PGA is therefore the last bastion of European exclusion. Along with Ryder Cup success, the continent has produced 20 U.S. Open champions and 11 winners of the Masters, yet no PGA champion in the tournament's 101-year history, despite 88 attempts.

A European victory in Tulsa would therefore be of far greater significance than Padraig Harrington's Open Championship triumph at Carnoustie. Fittingly, in the wake of his retirement, it would rank alongside Seve Ballesteros's Masters win in 1980 — Europe's first at Augusta — as a statement of intent; announcing the re-emergence with serious credibility of European golf on the world stage.

It won't be easy. Another factor standing in the way of Harrington and his peers — notably Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey, and Nick Dougherty — will be this year's venue. Southern Hills Country Club, in Oklahoma, has hosted six major championships in the last 50 years, three U.S. Opens and three PGA Championships; none have yielded European success.

In recent years, the course has proved favorable to South Africans — Nick Price won the 1994 PGA Championship and Retief Goosen was crowned U.S. Open champion in 2005 — and before that, it was an American stronghold, with triumphs for Tommy Bolt (1958 U.S. Open), Dave Stockton (1970 PGA), Hubert Green (1977 U.S. Open), and Raymond Floyd (1982 PGA).

When the tournament gets under way on Thursday, temperatures are certain to be in the 90s and in dramatic contrast to those experienced on the European tour. Humidity will be high and the hard, fast greens will favor high-trajectory iron play — Tiger Woods territory. Buoyed by Harrington's accomplishments, however, the Europeans will enter the fray flush with kind of confidence not seen since the reign of Nick Faldo.

Major Championships at Southern Hills Country Club

1958    USGA Open Championship		Tommy Bolt
1970    PGA Championship		Dave Stockton
1977    USGA Open Championship		Hubert Green
1982    PGA Championship		Ray Floyd
1994    PGA Championship		Nick Price
2001    USGA Open Championship		Retief Goosen

Posted by Will Tidey at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

August 4, 2007

Lombardi Trophy to Oscar Winner?

On the indispensable Internet Movie Database, Vince McMahon is listed as a producer for eight different films; from the mind-numbingly awful "No Holds Barred" and the remake of "Rollerball," to the actually quite good "The Rundown," to something called "Jornada del Muerto," a film in production that is scheduled to be directed by John "Red Dawn" Milius and starring Triple H in what's billed as "a modern-day Western where gangs, drug trafficking and broken codes of honor rule."

(Hmmm ... "broken codes of honor." For Triple H's sake, I hope they don't mean "man laws.")

Perhaps Roger Goodell has "Vince envy," and not just because Michael Vick's dog-fighting quagmire has lived through more media cycles than Chris Benoit's domestic slaughter. This week, the NFL followed in the footsteps of the WWE and announced it's getting into the motion picture business.

NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that the league will co-produce a bio-pic about Vince Lombardi — the first in what could be a series of NFL movies that detail moments in its storied history.

Right from the start, the not-so-subtle difference between the Hollywood NFL and Hollywood WWE is that the former appears dedicated to quality filmmaking while the latter made "The Condemned," a "Battle Royale" rip-off that replaced a gaggle of homicidal Japanese school children with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin.

In fact, the producer on the Lombardi picture is Andrew Hauptman. He produced the brilliant little Danny Boyle movie "Millions," and is producing "Lions For Lambs," a political pot-boiler starring Tom Cruise, Robert Redford, and Meryl Streep — none of whom, I believe, appeared in the remake of "Rollerball."

The prospect of NFL-produced films is exciting on several fronts. The league's participation means these films will not have teams named the Miami Sharks ("Any Given Sunday") or the Washington Sentinels ("The Replacements") because it'll all be officially licensed. This is good news for anybody who enjoyed the authenticity of "Jerry Maguire" thanks to NFL participation, or that was worried that this first league-produced film would be about Coach Victor Lombardo of the Green Lake Placards.

There's also an endless collection of stories that can be dramatized with full NFL participation, from games like Super Bowl III to individuals like Lombardi. Would you pay to see a John Riggins movie? What about one featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s?

But the inescapable question about the NFL-as-filmmakers is whether we'll get "No Fun League: The Movie." Can the most image-conscious organization in professional sports loosen up and tell unfiltered stories about its history? Is the NFL that censured "Playmakers" with the same zeal it dampens end zone celebrations capable of anything more cinematically adventurous than some Disney-esque piffle about teams overcoming long odds and triumphing in the end because they believe in themselves and each other?

I mean, somewhere out there is a professional screenwriter/big-time football fan that's been ready to write a Lawrence Taylor movie ever since he heard about L.T. sending hookers to opponents' hotel rooms and beating drug tests with his teammates' urine. But will we ever see an NFL-produced L.T. bio-pic, or are we destined to see one in which he's playing for a generic team called "New York" whose colors are slightly-off-enough-to-avoid-copyright-infringement?

I hope the NFL is in this to produce some real, substantial art and not just to add another branding opportunity to its media empire. Take this Lombardi picture: there is the real potential for greatness here, with the title role being one that ranges from intense determination to unintentional humor to heartache, as cancer conquered him. Get the right actor in there, and this thing is elevated into something that's worthy of attention during awards season.

And I have just the guy in mind.

Here's Vince:

And here's the guy who should play him:

Lombardi was born in Brooklyn; De Niro grew up in Little Italy. Lombardi started coaching at 26; De Niro's first role for director Brian De Palma hit screens when he was 26. Biographical coincidences aside, can anyone else gather the gravitas and meet the physical dimensions better than De Niro, who has proven he'll do anything to transform his body to fit a role?

I'm tellin' ya: Bobby D. for Vinny L. If nothing else, maybe it'll delay the inevitable next installment of the "Focker" films; a.k.a. cinematic evidence of the law of diminishing returns.

Just make sure the quality of the material meets the quality of the actor. Or else you might as well cast Triple H as Lombardi.

He can just tuck that hair under the hat, right?

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 10:53 AM | Comments (0)

August 3, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: Dallas Cowboys

Looking At 2006 in the Rear View Mirror

No one will ever mix up Drew Bledsoe with Michael Vick on the football field, but for most of his career, Bledsoe's arm and pin-point accuracy made up for his immobility. Last season, that wasn't the case.

After a lot of hype for an offense that had just acquired Terrell Owens, the Dallas Cowboys were too hot-and-cold under Bledsoe to be taken seriously.

In Week 7, head coach Bill Parcells made a bold move that would eventually save the Cowboys' season by giving Bledsoe the Looney Tunes hook in favor of the unproven Tony Romo.

When Romo entered in the second half, it looked like a lame decision initially, but the Cowboys went on to win five of their next six games and introduced some much-needed optimism.

The change at QB re-ignited the passing game as Romo started to connect with Owens, Terry Glenn, and Jason Witten much more often.

Owens had 22 receptions for 277 yards in the five games prior to the Giants game and had 41 catches and 540 in the six games after, once Romo took over.

More importantly, Romo's mobility and quicker release took a load off of the offensive line.

Though Romo struggled down the home stretch and, of course, bobbled a fairly key extra point hold, he has still shown enough to make people believe that he can be a franchise quarterback.

The Cowboys thrived with their ground attack as Julius Jones pieced together a full, healthy season. He topped the 1,000-yard mark for the first-time and was greatly helped by Marion Barber III, who spelled him and picked up the tough yards.

The tandem combined for 1,738 yards and 18 touchdowns and were an underrated 1-2 punch.

On defense, the Cowboys secondary and pass rush were the story of the season.

The Cowboys safeties were in many highlight packs, usually on the wrong end, chasing receivers from behind. The Cowboys allowed 25 passing touchdowns, which was the third highest total in the NFL.

Part of what factored into that problem was the lack of a pass rush. Once Greg Ellis was lost for the season — after making an excellent transition to outside linebacker — all of the blocking attention was focused on DeMarcus Ware. First-round pick Bobby Carpenter, who was expected to man the outside role from the jump, didn't prove to be much of a contributor.

Free safety was another issue as rookie Pat Watkins and veteran Roy Williams were victimized all season long.

Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: Pass Defense

Roy Williams had a subpar season, mostly because he didn't play with an adequate safety partner last year. Williams is much stronger closer to the line of scrimmage, but was forced to play further back to try and cover up for his counterpart.

Watkins is more of a linebacker and is slow to begin with, but the Cowboys had no other options.

While the Cowboys' rush defense allowed only five runs of 20 yards or longer, which was the third-lowest total in the NFL, they allowed 14 passing plays of 40 yards or longer, which was the third-highest total.

Permitting so many deep passing plays clearly factored in their yards-per-catch allowed, which was the second worst in the NFL (12.4).

The secondary finished with a total of 12 interceptions, which leaves much to be desired especially since the two starting corners, Anthony Henry and Terrence Newman, only combined for a total of three.

The Cowboys had a stout rushing attack and forced their opponents to be one-dimensional, and in some cases, predictable, but the even though the Cowboys were expecting the pass, they still couldn't stop it.

Where Are the Cowboys on the Contender Chart?

For starters, there is no real, copyrighted, Contender Chart, but for argument's sake, where do the Cowboys stand in comparison to the Super Bowl frontrunners?

They should have been in the second round of the playoffs and common sense tells us that they would have finished with a better record had Romo been the full-time starter from Week 1.

You can also factor in Owens' broken hand, which led to a number of dropped passes, as well as the injury to Ellis.

Before we make any assessments, let's take a look at how they have improved.

On defense, the Cowboys added first-round pick Anthony Spencer, who could be another DeMarcus Ware. If you combine that fact, along with the possible return of Greg Ellis and the hiring of defensive guru Wade Phillips, you can assume that the front seven will be a terror.

The remaining parts of the Cowboys' front seven really jelled last season and there is no question that they were stout against the run.

Nose tackle Jason Ferguson played better in his second season in Dallas, while the Cowboys had two quality ends emerge in Marcus Spears and Chris Canty, the latter being more of a surprise since Spears had been building towards that for a while.

With a quality line up front, pass rushing threats on the outside, and two tackling machines in Bradie James and Akin Ayodele on the inside, the front seven definitely looks stronger.

On the back end, the Cowboys added free safety Ken Hamlin, which is a definite upgrade over what was used last season, but keep your expectations tempered. Hamlin's former team, the Seattle Seahawks, opted to upgrade at his position as well, which means they didn't think too highly of him.

Even so, the addition of Hamlin takes a lot of things off of Williams' to-do list and should allow him to play closer to the front lines where he is most comfortable.

The two biggest weaknesses on defense were the pass rush and the free safety spot and the Cowboys upgraded both.

On offense, the only significant changes the Cowboys made were on the offensive line.

Leonard Davis, a high-end bust in Arizona, was signed for near David Beckham money as the Cowboys believe that his lack of growth stemmed from coaching.

He is taking over Marco Rivera's spot at right guard, who was released due to back issues.

The Cowboys have two Pro Bowlers with Flozell Adams at left tackle and Andre Gurode at center and a solid right tackle in Marc Colombo. If Davis is who the Cowboys believe he is, the Cowboys will have improved on their front lines.

But aside from the offensive line, we pretty much know what to expect from the rest of the offensive parts.

You can expect Owens to have a better season, now that his hand is healed, while Glenn has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns.

At tight end, the Cowboys have a Pro Bowl caliber tight end with Witten and at this point, we know what the Cowboys are going to get out of Barber and Jones.

Aside from a few minor parts who could step up to give this offense other options, such as Patrick Crayton or second tight end, Anthony Fasano, the real difference-maker in this offense is Romo.

Like many teams in the NFL, they only go as far as their quarterback.

Outside of the coaching staff, there isn't much turnover on this team so there aren't too many questions marks.

The main burning question has to be: can Romo handle the pressure?

We've seen many quarterbacks step into a deflated situation, play lights-out when the pressure was off, and crumble the following year when they were faced with greater expectations.

Is that what happened to Romo in the second half of last season, when he realized that Troy Aikman-like expectations were on his shoulders?

The main story in Dallas is no longer Owens, or a potential Owens/Parcells confrontation, or Parcells' possible retirement. All eyes are on Romo since it is up to him how big of a dent the Cowboys will make on the 2007 season.

The Players' Coach

With guys like Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith thriving, players' coaches are the fad right now. But keep in mind that the NFL is a league of trends.

Players' coaches have a tendency to lose their teams if the playoff appearances are not steady. Issues such as discipline, penalties, and focus can also wane since players' coaches are not as demanding.

Sure, the players love it, but that is not necessarily a good thing. Kids like when their parents or teachers are lenient because it means there is more they can get away with.

Once these players' coaches start failing more frequently, expect the dictators to make their way back.

Biggest Weakness: Depth — The Cowboys don't have much depth in a few areas (wide receiver, inside linebacker, cornerback) and if the front lines get nicked up, the Cowboys will experience a big drop-off with the backups.

Offensive X-Factor: Tony Romo — Romo has to be consistently good, something that many starting quarterbacks struggle to do. If the Cowboys are wondering what they will get out of him each week, they won't be contending this year.

Defensive X-Factor: Anthony Spencer — The Cowboys are hoping that Spencer is the Shaun Phillips to their Shawne Merriman (DeMarcus Ware). If that's the case, their pass rush under Wade Phillips will be excellent.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

There are a few options on this team whose values are low and offer a good price tag for what they could return.

On offense, Jason Witten is not making the top 10 tight ends in the fantasy rankings, but he should be up there. The emergence of Marion Barber really cut into his touchdown total last season. He still has all the tools and a new offensive coordinator should ensure that he isn't a forgotten man. He is money in the bank for 750 yards — it's just a question of how many touchdowns can he pull.

Secondly, take a look at Patrick Crayton, who should be undrafted in most leagues. Terry Glenn is off back-to-back healthy seasons and has never had three consecutive full seasons. He is still an effective player, but he did just have arthroscopic knee surgery to ease some pain in the area. Crayton's value will shoot up should Glenn miss time.

On defense, the Cowboys team defense should be fairly good. They aren't the Ravens or the Bears, and you would probably have to sit them when they play the Eagles, but this defense can shut offenses down. Teams who rely on rushing and don't threaten with a passing game play right into this defense's strengths.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:59 AM | Comments (2)

The MLB Connection in Israel

This past June, baseball began in an odd and unusual place in the world — Israel.

Coming from the minds of Major League Baseball honchos, the Israel Baseball League (IBL) is another branch to expand the game to the world arena.

But one has to wonder, will it overshadow Major League Baseball's problems?

With the World Baseball Classic just over a year ago, Major League Baseball is desperately trying to expand its fan base and the game of baseball to many different countries. However, we've seen America's Pastime fall with scandals — steroids, illegal betting, etc, and the game tarnished leaving a bad taste in many mouths. Many aren't even excited to see Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron's 755 home run record, as they suspect he's not being truthful about stuff he's done in the past.

Bringing the game of baseball to Israel is a good idea, but was it created to distract some of Major League Baseball's problems or expand the game?

For many that don't know, baseball was first played in Israel on July 4, 1927 and the first baseball field was constructed in Kibbutz Gezer in 1979. In order for the IBL to be successful, the league is made up of 120 players and six teams which are: the Tel Aviv Lighting, Netanya Tigers, Bet Shemesh Blue Sox, Petach Tikva Pioneers, Modi'in Miracle, and Ra'anana Express. They play their games in three stadiums that are spread out through Israel. Three of the managers are Jewish and well-known to Major League Baseball: Ken Holtzman, who will manage Petach Tikva, Art Shamsky, the skipper of Madi'in Miracle, and Ron Blomberg managing Bet Shemesh.

To make it real interesting, the IBL's last player to be selected was Hall of Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax by the Modi'in Miracle. Shamsky said on Koufax's selection that, "his selection is a tribute to the esteem with which he is held by everyone associated with the league. It's been 41 years between starts for him. If he's rested and ready to take the mound again, we want him on our team." Koufax also showed dedication to his Jewish faith by not pitching Game 1 of the 1965 World Series so he can observe Yom Kippur.

No major network aired the first game except for PBS, which had an attendance of 3,112, and MLB.com will carry coverage of the league's games. Even though the games take about two hours to play, they are only seven innings and if there is a tie, a home run derby is used to decide the winner.

The names of many in baseball are behind this, with the most prominent being Bud Selig. Others are: Wendy Selig-Prieb (former Milwaukee Brewers owner), Marvin Goldklang (minority owner of the New York Yankees and four minor league teams), Randy Levine (Yankees president), Marty Appel (former PR director for the Yankees), and Dan Duquette (former GM of the Boston Red Sox and Montreal Expos).

While many question this league, Selig has ideas for expansion and maybe sending a political message to every other country that baseball can exist anywhere in the world. In a statement put out by the IBL, their purpose for this league is: "the IBL hopes to foster the sort of following and participation in a sport that is beautiful in symmetry and its grace. The IBL seeks to provide positive role models for Israeli children and Jewish children abroad that extend beyond the religious, military, or political models that dominate Israeli society today. It will take time, but in the end, we believe that baseball will cement even bonds that exist between America and Israel. Perhaps baseball will even create bonds and disparate peoples who, by learning a sport together, can find a common ground to co-exist and play."

Now that there's the IBL, maybe it can be the example for Major League Baseball and all of its problems. The question is not if it can survive, but what Major League Baseball can learn to right its mistakes.

On the IBL website, they have a quote from Nelson Mandela on sports and it is: "Sport has power to change the world. It has the power to unite people in a way that little else does."

Now we need to unite American fans back and change some of MLB's issues once and for all.

Posted by Joe Boesch at 11:56 AM | Comments (2)

August 2, 2007

MLB Trade Deadline: Much Ado About Nothing

On July 31st, 1975, one of the most infamous events in United States history took place when union leader Jimmy Hoffa disappeared from Detroit, Michigan. The disappearance of Hoffa has never been solved, and FBI agents have never located his body.

Why, you might ask, am I bringing this up? As far as I can tell, that may be the only significant thing that has happened on July 31st in the last 40 years. Unfortunately, despite what you might hear from "people close to the situation," July 31st usually just comes and goes just like every other summer day for us regular, old-fashioned baseball fans.

Baseball fans get teased with the promise of Christmas in July for the weeks leading up to the trade deadline with every big name rumored to be on the move in the newspapers or on "Baseball Tonight." Then every year on July 30th, the Grinch comes and steals Christmas in July and replaces all of the big-name trade talks with "blockbusters" like Matt Morris to the Pirates for a minor leaguer and a player to be named later.

In the era of 24-hour, round-the-clock coverage of sports, you can't blame the networks or websites for wanting to speculate about trades. Trade talks are interesting, spark debate, and keep viewers/readers attention during what most would consider to be a down month in sports. These talks, however, need to be taken for exactly what they are: rumors. The trade deadline is not nearly the event that they want you to believe it is.

Since not every huge deal goes down on the day of the deadline, here is a list of every player who was traded between July 28 and July 31st and went on to play on the winning World Series team that same season in the last 10 years:

Ronnie Belliard, Geoff Blum, Doug Mienkiewicz, Orlando Cabrera, Dave Roberts, Alex Ochoa, Jim Leyritz, and Matt Treanor.

Not exactly a real who's who among World Series heroes. Aside from Orlando Cabrera, there isn't a player on that list that who could have even been considered as a top-10 player at their respective position at any point in their career. Yet if you hear some of the talking heads go at it, you'd swear that not only has every team that's ever won brought in a big name at the deadline, GMs that don't make a deadline move are worse at their job than Lindsay Lohan's AA sponsor.

The point is that the trade deadline is not a time when teams acquire that one person who will surely put them over the top. More often than not, it is a time for bad teams to try and shake up their minor league system and unload some old players. If making moves at the trade deadline assured teams' success, the Pirates and Rockies probably wouldn't be the most active deadline teams in the past 10 years.

You can use all the fancy buzzwords like "buyers" and "sellers" to define a team's approach to the trade deadline, but based on the names I just gave you, I have a hard time believing that any of the past 10 World Champs "bought" a World Series title by bringing in any those players. I also have a hard time believing that very many teams are willing to "sell" the future because the calendar needs to be turned over the next day.

World Series are won by the teams who play the best in September and October. Occasionally, those teams have players who were acquired at the deadline that have an impact on the stretch run. They also have superstar batters who step up in the clutch, shutdown bullpens, and starting pitching that puts them in a position to win games.

Players from the last three categories are groomed in the minor leagues, signed as free agents in the offseason, or traded for in the offseason and given a full year to adjust to a new team. They aren't brought in a two months before the season ends and thrown into a pennant race. There are obviously exceptions, but by and large, personal moves in the offseason are much more important than anything that happens in the last week in July.

Yes, this year did feature a couple of interesting moves that featured some marquee players (namely Mark Teixeira and Eric Gagne) going to teams that will surely be contending late in September. But if history has taught us anything, Theo Epstein and John Schuerholz may have been better off trading for no-namers this weekend. After all, striking gold with a deadline deal for a superstar seems to be tougher than finding Jimmy Hoffa these days.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 20

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jeff Gordon — After a middling qualifying effort of 21st on Saturday, Gordon came out much faster on Sunday, quickly penetrating the top 10 on his way to third at Indianapolis. While handling issues handcuffed any ideas of winning the race, Gordon still extending his points lead over second place, and now has a massive 371-point cushion over Denny Hamlin.

"'And speaking of 'massive cushions,'" says Gordon, "there's nothing I like better than good grip on the tail end. I'm referring to the car, you understand. Anyway, it looks like Tony Stewart is getting hot, so I can expect him to be my main competition for the title. If he wants some, he can come get some. Here kitty, kitty, kitty. And, if Jimmie Johnson wants some, and can find a decent set of tires, then he can come get some, too."

2. Tony Stewart — Stewart battled good friend Kevin Harvick down the stretch at Indy, aggressively powering past the Richard Childress driver with 10 laps left to win his second Brickyard 400. Stewart then kissed the bricks, climbed the fence, and doused himself with wet cement, clearly a blatant attempt to advertise building materials available at the Home Depot.

"Now that's what I call racing," says Stewart, "as long as I come out on top. I know Kevin may be upset with the way I raced him, but I was desperate to win in Indy, not only for myself, but also for all my fans, which includes NBA official Tim Donaghy, who had a load of cash riding on me. And I apologize for the language after the race that cost me 25 points and $25,000. I can't promise it won't happen again. In fact, can I make a prepayment so I'll be covered when it does happen again?"

3. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin was penalized for speeding on pit lane early, then ran out of fuel coming down pit road for his final pit stop, and lost a lap trying to restart his engine. He entered the pits looking at a likely top-10 finish, but his troubles resulted in a 22nd-place result.

"I guess I'll have to bite the bullet and congratulate my teammate, Tony Stewart," says Hamlin. "After all, he won the race, and Joe Gibbs ordered me to, anyway. Tony's an interesting fellow. One minute, you hate him. The next minute, you hate him more. Whatever he does or says, no matter how controversial, Tony's got an uncanny ability to convince himself that it was the right thing to do. He'll make a great politician one day."

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson survived an early spin with Jamie McMurray, only to crash out in flames when tire rub on his fender resulted in a blown tire and a fiery slide down the turn two wall. Johnson emerged relatively unhurt, suffering only singed eyebrows, but he tumbled two more places in the points (he fell three places after finishing 30th at Chicagoland) to ninth, where he is 607 behind teammate Jeff Gordon.

"Man, I feel practically naked without my eyebrows," says Johnson, who cancelled his weekly tweeze. "It got pretty hot in that car, just like it did in that car occupied by Ray Evernham and Erin Crocker some time ago. Unlike Erin, I emerged with my career intact."

5. Matt Kenseth — As has often been the case, Kenseth and crew never quite found the ideal setup on Sunday, but constant tinkering and adjustments helped the No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford to its 14th top-10 finish of the year. Kenseth remained third in the points, 377 out of first.

"There was this unusual vibration in the car," says Kenseth, "but the Killer Bees couldn't figure it out. Turns out it was just me shaking a cup of popcorn chicken shakers from Arby's. I should watch what I say. Chicken shakers in the cockpit has to be a violation of some obscure NASCAR rule. Anyway, I also got to work the drive-thru at an Arby's in Indianapolis. You know, I felt as much as home there as I do at the track; no one recognized me at either place."

6. Kevin Harvick — Harvick blew past Tony Stewart on a restart with 20 laps left, but had the favor returned to him 10 laps later when Stewart overtook him after some hard racing that left Harvick's front fender damaged, causing him to fade to seventh by race's end. A perturbed Harvick gave Stewart's car a "bump" after the race, which was either congratulatory or retaliatory, depending on your affinity and/or loyalty to Shell gasoline/Reese's Peanut Butter Cups or the Home Depot.

"You know the saying," says Harvick, "'Where there's smoke, there's someone who's pissed off.' Tony's the first one to complain if someone does exactly what he did to me. If he's the one to benefit from an aggressive move, then it's all fine and dandy. His behavior reminds me of someone else in NASCAR: me."

7. Jeff Burton — Burton recorded his 11th top-10 of the year with a eighth in the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard. Afterwards, Burton met with Kyle Busch to discuss what Burton thought was some unnecessarily hard racing early in the race.

"I'm not really upset about Kyle's hard driving," explains NASCAR's unofficial ambassador of good will. "What really got my goat were those silly orange and blue flames from the ESPN Draft Track when Kyle got near me. How am I supposed to be able to see through all that? Didn't FOX use that same technology on a hockey puck a few years ago? As I recall, it wasn't a big success. And FOX isn't covering hockey anymore."

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards run of two-straight top-five's ended at Indy, as handling issues left him with an 18th-place finish. The previous week, Edwards dislocated his thumb in a dirt track accident in Greenwood, Nebraska, but he insisted that had nothing to do with his performance at Indianapolis.

"Actually, I got pinned thumb wrestling with this hobo who was at the halfway point in his quest to hitchhike across America," explains Edwards. "Boy, did he have a powerful thumb. Thumb wrestling could be ESPN's next great televised conquest."

9. Kyle Busch — Busch led 17 laps in the Allstate 400 and finished fourth, his best finish since his second at Daytona earlier this month. However, Busch's joy was tempered by humility, when he apologized to his Hendrick teammates for derogatory and unsubstantiated comments he made about their actions at Daytona.

"Hey, I'm a Busch brother," says Busch. "I speak, then I think. But at least I'm not as bad as Kurt. He speaks, then thinks, then gets slapped. But I've made up with my Hendrick teammates. I'm through criticizing them. At least until my new book, co-authored with Jose Canseco, comes out. I've got some 'stuff' on those guys."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt led 33 laps and appeared to have the engine to challenge Tony Stewart, but that same engine blew 24 laps from the end as Earnhardt ran fifth. He finished 34th but held on to 12th in the points, but is only 13 points ahead of Kurt Busch in 13th.

"Okay fans," says Earnhardt. "Say goodbye to all your Budweiser gear and say hello to National Guard and Mountain Dew gear. And say goodbye to being cool."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:44 AM | Comments (0)

LPGA Homecoming: Ricoh's British Open

St. Andrews is over 500-years-old and the course is considered to be the birthplace of golf. It has played host to the men 27 times since the inception of the British Open in 1873. Yet Thursday will be the first time it hosts a professional tournament for the women as the Ricoh Women's British Open presented by Weetabix gets underway from Scotland.

This is a historic event not just for golf, but for women in general. The course is also home to the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews, which until this week was for men only and actually had a sign out front that read "No dogs or women allowed." Sounds like the type of place Michael Vick will probably be visiting very soon.

The fact that the women will be allowed to use the facilities and that the R&A museum will be dedicated to women's golf that week are huge statements. Every player that has been asked about it seems to understand this isn't just another tournament, or even just another major. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Part of the reason the Open has never been played here is that the women's version doesn't have anywhere near the history and tradition of the men's event. The Women's British Open didn't even exist until 1976, didn't become an LPGA tour event until 1994, and wasn't considered a major until 2001.

Since then it has been contested at Royal Birkdale, Royal Lytham and St. Anne's, and Turnberry, all names that are very familiar to golf fans. St. Andrew's figures to be the ultimate test.

The course is setup to play 6,638 yards and to a par of 73. The famous Road Hole has been converted from a long par 4 to a 453-yard par 5, accounting for the extra stroke to par. With its seven double greens and over 100 bunkers, the course should be challenging to say the least.

If the PGA and Senior British Open's were any indication of what to expect from the women, it should make for exciting theatre and outstanding golf.

The men's British Open was won by Padraig Harrington in a four-hole playoff after he made double bogey on the 72nd hole.

Tom Watson won his third Senior British Open in the last five years, surviving a double bogey of his own on the 18th hole on Sunday to win by one shot.

The Women's British Open will not have a lack of stories to choose from this week. You can see the Open on TNT from 10 AM-noon on Thursday and Friday. Weekend coverage is on ABC from 1:30-3 PM on Saturday and 1:30-3:30 PM on Sunday. Let's take a look at the golfers to watch.

Lorena Ochoa

What she needs to do: Pretend this isn't a major. Ochoa has won nine times since the start of 2006 and finished in the top 10 in an amazing 33 of her last 41 tournaments, but she is yet to raise a trophy in a major.

What it would mean: She would shed the label of best LPGA player to not have won a major. It would also solidify her place as the No. 1 female golfer in the world.

Annika Sorenstam

What she needs to do: Play like Annika. She has focused on the majors more in recent years and lives to perform on the big stage. When on her game she is the most accurate ball striker around, which is a huge key to links golf.

What it would mean: She would keep marching towards history. A victory on Sunday would give her 70 career wins and 11 career majors.

Sherri Steinhauer

What she needs to do: Remember where she is and play her game. Three of her seven career victories have come in British Opens, and she has the type of low ball flight that is very effective on links courses.

What it would mean: She would set a record with four British Open victories and establish herself as the premier links player among the women.

Karrie Webb

What she needs to do: Draw on good memories. Like Steinhauer, Webb is a three-time British Open winner who is going for a record fourth title. She also won the first time they played the Open in Scotland at Turnberry in 2002.

What it would mean: She would join Sorenstam as the only women to win three different majors more than once and would move into a tie for sixth all time with eight major wins.

Laura Davies

What she needs to do: Let it rip. Davies has a distance advantage over everyone in the field, and the extra roll she will get on drives will leave a lot of short iron approach shots.

What it would mean: She would get the final two points she needs to gain entry into the LPGA Hall of Fame.

Paula Creamer

What she needs to do: Use her course knowledge. Creamer played four rounds on the Old Course back in April and that extra edge could prove to be the edge she needs.

What it would mean: She would get one heck of a birthday present, as she turns 21 on Sunday. It would also signal that she has truly arrived as a force on tour.

If this year's majors are any guide, put your money on Ochoa, Creamer, or another player getting a breakthrough victory. Of the six majors played so far this year on the PGA and LPGA tours, all of them have been won by players capturing their first major title.

However, something tells me that the Women's British Open will buck that trend. I can't help but have the gut feeling that someone who is used to the spotlight, but has been out of it lately will put together four spectacular rounds of links golf and walk away with the title. I am of course talking about Annika Sorenstam.

Sorenstam showed her game is back to where we are used to seeing it with a tie for sixth at the Evian Masters last week. She also understands the significance of this tournament being played on this course and has already won there, having captured the St. Rule Trophy, an amateur event, in 1990.

Expect Sunday to be the culmination of an unbelievable week for women's golf. The champion, whoever it may be, will be forever linked to a historic title.

The first woman ever to win the British Open at St. Andrew's, the birthplace of golf, is something that can't be taken away and will never be duplicated.

Posted by Jeff Levers at 11:29 AM | Comments (0)

August 1, 2007

2007 NFL Preview: Cleveland Browns

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

Outside of Lindsay Lohan's character in her 2006 whiff "Just My Luck" — which nobody saw or cared about — only the Cleveland Browns have had worse string of luck.

The franchise has been playing as poorly as the only other thing we immediately associate with the color brown, and their fortunes did not turn for the better in 2006.

It started with prized free agent center LeCharles Bentley, who blew out his knee roughly 10 seconds after he received a direct deposit for the guaranteed money in his $36 million deal.

Injuries were a consistent theme for the Browns in 2006 and they came in many fashions.

Veteran cornerback Daylon McCutcheon missed all of 2006 with a knee injury, while 2005 prized free agent cornerback Gary Baxter became the first player in NFL history to tear patellar tendons in both knees on the same play. Free safety Brian Russell, and another corner, Leigh Bodden, were also touched up with injuries.

On offense, the Browns also played without top wideout, Joe Jurevicius, for several weeks.

You can't take that many key players off a team and still expect to compete.

But the Browns have failed in other areas; most notably, player drafting. Considering this team has been selecting during the first hour on draft day since they started up again in Cleveland, they haven't harvested many quality prospects.

Player development has also been an issue, as demonstrated last season.

Third-round pick Travis Wilson didn't get much playing time even though the Browns are thin at wide receiver. He only finished with two receptions. Two other rookies, running back Jerome Harrison and guard Isaac Sowells, also should have seen more playing time, but the coaching staff was more concerned with wins and short-term goals.

But it wasn't all sour for Cleveland; they did hit the bulls-eye with linebackers Kamerion Wimbley, who finished with 11 sacks as a rookie, D'Qwell Jackson, who finished third on the team with 93 tackles, and Leon Williams, who is the top backup at the position.

Also, the development of safeties Brodney Pool and Sean Jones came to an end and the result was a fairly good product. Jones had a decent case for the Pro Bowl, leading the team with 111 tackles and five interceptions, along with half a sack and one fumble recovery.

Growth on offense was not as noticeable. The Browns quarterback situation elucidated and now it's clear that neither Charlie Frye nor Derek Anderson are franchise quarterbacks. Free agent tackle Kevin Shaffer is a big waste of $36 million, while supposed star-in-the-making receiver Braylon Edwards dropped many key passes.

The good news was that tight end Kellen Winslow was finally healthy and led the team with 89 receptions.

Using Letters to Breakdown Numbers: Draft History

Since 1999, they have been one of the poorest drafting teams of all-time. Making that fact worse is the detail that the Browns have been calling names in the first hour on draft throughout most of their second term in the NFL.

The Browns have amassed 40 wins in eight seasons with only one winning season (nine wins), meaning that they have had the top pick in the draft twice and have been picking sixth or better five times.

From 1999-2001, the only quality players they drafted were Gerard Warren and Anthony Henry. They had 32 picks in those three drafts, the aforementioned two are the only impact players on any NFL rosters. It should be noted that Warren was largely a bust in Cleveland.

1999 produced: Tim Couch, Kevin Johnson, Rahim Abdullah, Daylon McCutcheon, Marquis Smith, Wali Rainer, Darrin Chiaverini, Marcus Spriggs, Kendall Ogle, James Dearth, and Madre Hill.

Aside from Johnson and McCutcheon, who weren't much more than solid for a short period of time, the Browns came up empty-handed.

2000 produced: Courtney Brown, Dennis Northcutt, Travis Prentice, JaJuan Dawson, Lewis Sanders, Aaron Shea, Anthony Malbrough, Lamar Chapman, Spergon Wynn, Brad Bedell, Manuia Savea, Eric Chandler, and Rashidi Barnes.

This was a real burn job. No starters and the top prize being Dennis Northcutt, who finished his career in Cleveland with 276 receptions.

2001 was a bit better: Gerard Warren, Quincy Morgan, James Jackson, Anthony Henry, Jeremiah Pharms, Michael Jameson, Paul Zukauskas, and Andre King.

I urge you to re-read some of these names. So many of them came and went without so much as even a sound.

From 2002-2004, the Browns hit with Melvin Fowler, Jeff Faine, Kellen Winslow, and Sean Jones. That's four out of 21 — and two of which play for other teams.

By this point, even the law of averages was spitting in the Browns' face.

So let me sum this up: from 1999-2004, the Browns had 54 picks (an average of nine selections per draft) and the only prospects that played well enough for them to keep long-term were Kellen Winslow and Sean Jones. And with Winslow, they discussed out clauses after he pulled a Ben Roethlisberger.

Ouch.

Yes, the Browns have had terrible injury luck. They have also employed a blind, deaf, and dumb scouting staff that has screwed over the foundation of this team for years. The NFL draft is where you build your team and that is largely why the Browns only have 40 wins since returning to the NFL.

A Stroke of Luck

If you believe in fate, karma, kismet, and Meg Ryan movies, then maybe you'll believe that the Browns finally caught a break that can turn their franchise around.

I don't believe in Meg Ryan movies — although "Courage Under Fire" was good — but I do believe that when Brady Quinn dropped slid down the draft board and the Browns traded up to get him, I believe it changed the course of their franchise.

Call it fate, or just call it drafting a quarterback that legitimately has a chance to make an impact, but the Browns will remember this day as the day their fortunes turned.

Without question, the Browns should start him right off the bat. There's no secret; we all know he is going to take over the reigns this season, so there is no reason to throw Frye or Anderson into the job and create a lame-duck situation.

The Browns offense is not your typical 4-12 unit. With the return of LeCharles Bentley, the signing of Eric Steinbach and the drafting of Joe Thomas, the Browns should have the protection in place for Quinn. It's not like he's stepping in behind the Texans line and getting murdered.

In the passing game, Quinn will have targets to work with. Braylon Edwards has apparently matured and is the big-play wideout. Joe Jurevicius is much more reliable as the No. 2. At tight end, Winslow proved to be a premier safety valve for the Browns' quarterbacks last season, and as long as he's healthy, will give Quinn more than enough to work with.

The running game is upgraded, as odd as that sounds, since Jamal Lewis is taking over. The Browns were a terrible rushing team last year and Lewis, even in a mediocre season, had two more rushing touchdowns (9) than the Browns' whole team (7). He is far less hesitant than his predecessors and he is working with a good offensive line.

Quinn is supposed to be the most NFL ready quarterback in this year's class. We will find out shortly.

How's the 25th-Ranked Defense Coming Along?

So after I mashed the Browns for a terrible drafting history, I will complement them for last year's work.

In one draft, the Browns plucked Kamerion Wimbley, D'Qwell Jackson, and Leon Williams. Wimbley and Jackson should start, while Williams will be a top backup. That's how you lay the foundation for future success.

Combine those young studs with tackling machine Andra Davis and veteran Willie McGinest. Two years ago, when the Romeo Crennel first took over the head coaching job and switched the defense to a 3-4, the Browns were short on linebackers. Now this is the defense's strong suit.

Up front, though, the Browns are still inadequate. 39-year-old nose tackle Ted Washington could give out at any second, which would cripple the defense. Orpheus Roye, who at 34 looks like a young sprite compared to Washington, has played 11 seasons in the NFL. Robaire Smith, the other of the three starters, is the only significant addition to this unit — of course, using the word "significant" loosely.

The secondary is also somewhat of a question mark. They get a boost with addition of talented second-round pick Eric Wright, but would get an even bigger shot in the arm if Gary Baxter came back and played well. He probably won't be around at the start of the season.

That throws Wright right into the fire and he'll start opposite of Leigh Bodden. The jury is still out on him, as well.

After a breakout year, expectations will be even higher for strong safety Sean Jones. The bar is also raised for his partner Brodney Pool after the Brian Russell exited via free agency. On talent alone, both are up to the task and could be a very good, young duo.

Four Wins Again?

Here's breaking news: the Browns will struggle this season.

Listen, everybody has to walk before they recklessly ride motorcycles around a parking lot and the Browns are no different. But if they start Quinn from the jump, the Browns should experience a growth spurt in the second half of the season. If they can do that, Crennel's job will probably be safe but more importantly, it will prove that their luck has finally changed and that they have in fact turned the corner on this horrible stretch of losing.

Biggest Weakness: Leadership — This is a young squad who is building their chemistry right now. Who will step up and take the reigns?

Offensive X-Factor: Brady Quinn — Look at Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Jay Cutler, and the three teams that drafted them last season. Quinn has sparked of optimism in Cleveland and needs to back it on the field.

Defensive X-Factor: Brodney Pool — The Browns gave up 20 touchdowns through the air last season and need to cut that down. Pool has the potential to be a game-changer.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Am I going to recommend you draft Jamal Lewis? Yes, I am. Remember, this is a buy low recommendation, and his value is pretty low at this point. On paper, the Browns have a pretty good offensive line and Lewis is one more year removed from a serious ankle injury. Is he still a 2,000-yard running back? No. But he did finish with 1,132 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns last season. Don't expect those numbers to go way up, mostly because his team will be playing from behind more than the Ravens did, but expecting around 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns is reasonable; Reuben Droughns, who is an inferior running back, did it two years ago in a worse rendition of this offense.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].

Posted by Dave Golokhov at 11:43 AM | Comments (0)

MLB Trade Deadline Day Duds

The Boston Red Sox just became a shoo-in for the pennant and a long playoff run. With the trade deadline acquisition of Canadian reliever Eric Gagne, Boston instantly secured success.

The Atlanta Braves similarly went out and snagged some key contributors in Mark Teixeira, Ron Mahay, and Octavio Dotel. This immediately puts the Braves into the wildcard driver's seat.

San Diego acquired third baseman Morgan Ensberg and left fielder Rob Mackowiak. The Yankees picked up infielder Wilson Betemit and Philadelphia grabbed pitcher Julio Mateo from the Seattle Mariners. So, let's get this straight. Boston and Atlanta will be in the World Series with San Diego and the New York Yankees losing the their respective league championships.

Oh, wait. Does the trade deadline really warrant the season-changing hype it seams to garner each year? Or should it be considered simply a last-minute opportunity for the favorites to tweak their lineup and the also-rans to get a few more prospects that will likely never play?

When one recalls recent trade deadlines and the ensuing stretch drive, its little wonder this year's eleventh hour frenzy played second fiddle to the overshadowing forehead of Barry Bonds and his home run chase. A quick scan of the stats shows few late July acquisitions actually changing the fate of a team's season. And rarely do the World Series champions look back upon the trade deadline as the season's turning point.

Last year, the Detroit Tigers acquired Sean Casey at the deadline and he was a key cog in the Tigers' playoff run, but Casey is much more the exception than the rule.

Over the past three seasons, every year, only one team in each league has qualified for the postseason after being on the outside at the deadline. The trend seems to agree that teams in a playoff position at the deadline stay there and teams looking in from the outside rarely make it the playoffs.

In three years, only three teams have joined the October dance after watching in August from the outside.

While the MLB trade deadline is nothing like the frantic frenzy that is the NHL deadline, there are still major deals, but I'm just not sure how significant they turn out to be.

In 2004, the Chicago Cubs made the biggest splash with the acquisition of shortstop Nomar Garciaparra from the Boston Red Sox. The four-team trade landed the Cubs the much sough-after five-time all-star.

At the time of the deal, Chicago was one game out of the wildcard position and with the addition of Garciappara were a likely favorite to capture the coveted last spot. But despite batting .297 after joining the Cubs and collecting 20 home runs, at the end of the year Chicago finished three games back of the wildcard and a disappointing third in the NL Central. Boston, having rid themselves of former Red Sox icon Garciaparra went on to win the World Series.

In 2005, the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks were neck-and-neck in the race NL West title at the deadline. The Padres were busy, acquiring pitcher Chan Ho Park and infielder Joe Randa amongst a few other small pieces. At the same time, the Diamondbacks did almost nothing. In this case the Padres pulled ahead of Arizona and went on to take the division. But despite the additions and claiming the divisional title, San Diego was promptly swept 3-0 by the St. Louis Cardinals and all those deadline moves looked little better than a good try.

In the American League, the New York Yankees were not in the playoff picture at the deadline and uncharacteristically made few moves to bolster the lineup. But quickly proved the deadline's lack of importance but putting together a remarkable stretch run to win the AL East.

This year was also the deadline where names like Manny Ramirez and Afonso Soriano were apparent trade bait, but nothing came to fruition. Matt Lawton may have been the biggest move as he went to the Chicago Cubs, but was unable to vault them into Octoberfest.

The World Series winning Chicago White Sox only acquired spare part Geoff Blum at the deadline, while their championship counterparts did nothing at the deadline, yet still made it to the last dance.

Last year, the American League was yet another prime example of why the MLB's trade deadline often provides little more than an opportunity to hit a bloop single. The Minnesota Twins were a couple games back in the AL Central and did nearly nothing at the deadline. They went on a tear that had them recover to win the division.

In the National League, the L.A. Dodgers took a different deadline route by acquiring Greg Maddux. He turned in several impressive performances — going 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA — helping the Dodgers to a 37-19 record after the deadline. Although they made the playoffs, the Maddux acquisition didn't help after the regular season as they were swept in the opening round.

Cincinnati tried to do what L.A. did by picking up pitchers Kyle Lohse and Rheal Cormier, but it had the opposite effect. They fell from leading the wildcard race to eight games back by the end of the season.

The major players at the deadline rarely turn into World Series champions. Whether that's because they only need minor tweaking or because the dressing room chemistry is able to stay intact. Year after year, the trade deadline is more intriguing to fans than to general managers. Although minor moves can be imperative for a team's success, don't be concerned if your team didn't make a major move this year. They may be hiding in the bushes ready to pounce with their unchanged roster and maybe that will help baseball move out of Barry Bonds shadow.

Posted by Mark Janzen at 11:23 AM | Comments (0)