Looking At 2006 In the Rear View Mirror
After winning the AFC North in 2005, the Cincinnati Bengals were on track to become a Super Bowl contender in 2006. But in the offseason, the Bengals had more arrests than a full season of "The Wire" and stepped backward instead of forwards. After winning 11 games in '05, they topped out at eight last year.
Entailing the league's fourth-best scoring offense, the Bengals' main focus in the offseason was supposed to be the defense.
Management did address a few issues — signing veteran tackle Sam Adams, safety Dexter Jackson, and drafting cornerback Johnathan Joseph — but improvements were scant.
In '05, the defense allowed 338.7 yards-per-game and that average jumped to 355.1 in '06.
Part of the problem was right in the heart of the defense, where the Bengals were counting on the growth of two young linebackers: David Pollack and Odell Thurman.
Thurman was suspended for the year after a drunken driving charged was tacked onto a long laundry list, while Pollack was also gone for the season with a neck injury (suffered in Week 1).
The Bengals were seemingly left thin but versatile backup Landon Johnson, along with former CFL player Rashad Jeanty and supplemental draft pick Ahmad Brooks; they had solid seasons at linebacker.
The back end of the defense turned from strength to weakness in 2006, mostly because of substandard seasons from cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal and Tory James.
O'Neal, who went to the Pro Bowl in 2005, lost his confidence.
The result was that the Bengals' defense, which used a league-leading 44 takeaways and 31 interceptions in 2005 to mask deficiencies, didn't manufacture nearly as many drive-stopping plays in 2006. In both of the last two seasons, the Bengals have given up a ton of yardage, but takeaways ended drives in 2005; those stops turned into points in 2006.
On offense, Palmer was not rusty at all and wasn't hampered mentally by his major knee injury. The Bengals came flying out of the gate with three wins, but quickly lost the wind in their sails when they followed that up with a 1-5 stretch.
Reflecting back on their schedule, the Bengals were a very similar outfit to the 2005 unit. For the most part, they beat the teams they should have, such as Cleveland, Oakland, and Carolina, and lost to more formidable opponents, such as New England, Indianapolis, San Diego, and Denver.
Cincy's offense was clearly limited by a couple of key injuries. On the offensive line, the Bengals had no rhythm as Richie Braham and Willie Anderson struggled to stay healthy. Another key loss was in the backfield, where the Bengals were without third-down back Chris Perry. He is an underrated weapon, but has only played in 22 games in three seasons.
Heading forward, the Bengals offense is Super Bowl-ready. Now it's just a matter of whether defensive guru Marvin Lewis can get the defense to a similar level.
Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: Rush Defense
After observing the talent on the Bengals' defense, one might ask themselves the question: why has this unit ranked among the five worst defenses in the NFL during the past two seasons?
Tory James and Deltha O'Neal are decent, Madieu Williams and Dexter Jackson are a good tandem at safety, the linebacking corps is loading with young up-and-coming prospects, and the Bengals have two quality ends in Robert Geathers and Justin Smith.
And you would be right with that observation.
But where the Bengals have been weak is right in the middle of their defensive line.
On the surface, the rushing defense might not look so bad. It finished ranked 15th overall. But as you look at the yards-per-carry average (4.2, ranked 20th), rushing first downs (109, ranked 22nd), and rushing touchdowns allowed (15, ranked 24th), the defense starts to creep into the lower half.
The signing of Sam Adams, a big road block tackle, was supposed to plug some of these holes, but he was not the solution.
The more you examine the statistics from the rushing defense, the more it is evident that the performance of the rushing defense was critical in determining wins or losses.
In the Bengals' eight wins, they allowed only two teams to top 100 yards rushing. In those wins, they permitted 84.5 yards on the ground per game.
In the Bengals' eight losses, all eight opponents surpassed 100 net yards rushing and the Bengals allowed 148 yards rushing per game — a difference of nearly 64 yards per game from their wins.
The side effects of being gashed by an opponent's ground game is that the all-important time of possession will be lost.
The Bengals' defense is in the same category as the Titans, Lions, Raiders, Bills, and Buccaneers when it comes to spending time on the field. No defense spends more time than those six squads.
At times last year, the Bengals' offense was frustrated on the sidelines watching their opponent bludgeon the defense. And when the offense stepped on the field, they were out of rhythm.
For the Bengals to be a Super Bowl contender, the time of possession scales need to be tipped in the opposite direction.
Addressing the Defensive Tackles
One of the Bengals priorities in the offseason was upgrading the position that I was just talking about: the defensive tackles.
The first order of business was parting ways with Adams, who was over-the-hill to begin with, but never met expectations.
The Bengals have a contingency plan in second-year prospect, Domata Peko, who earned playing time ahead of Adams last year. The coaches are high on him, which should indicate an upgrade at the starting level.
The Bengals also added Kenderick Allen, a noted run-stuffer, and Michael Myers for depth. As the Bengals were getting worn down last year, depth was not a luxury at this position. The Bengals still don't have anyone to push the pocket at this position, but they should be stronger against the run.
The Rest of the Defense
It has been five years since the Bengals have finished with more than 37 sacks as a defense and it will undoubtedly be one of the bigger concerns heading into 2007.
They finished with 35 last year, but half of them came from two defensive ends, Justin Smith and Robert Geathers, while only one other player finished with more than three.
There is a lot of talent around, but it can quickly go to waste if they have to defend for prolonged periods of time.
At cornerback, another first-round pick was spent to secure the passing defense. It should also help motivate O'Neal, who struggled last season. At the back end of the secondary, with Madieu Williams fresh off a bounce-back season (88 TKL, 3 INT, 2 FF), there is confidence in the safety tandem, although they might miss the versatility of Kevin Kaesviharn, who left as a free agent.
At linebacker, the Bengals will once again be without David Pollack for the season, but they should have the depth to deal with that loss this time. More importantly than anything, there isn't a ton of juggling at this position and the three or four players who will be battling for starter's roles know who they are and what their potential roles will be. Last season, the Bengals had to shift players around because of unexpected circumstances (Pollack injury, Thurman suspension). The return of Thurman should provide a big boost; he led the team in tackles two years ago.
How Good is the Bengals' Offense?
In 2005, just before Carson Palmer's knee injury, the Bengals' offense was clicking and looked as lethal as the Colts' unit.
Fast forward a season rife with suspension and injuries and we're left wondering if the Bengals can regain their 2005 form and continue to climb higher.
The answer to that question is the same answer that Lindsay Lohan gives to cocaine (allegedly): yes.
The Bengals' offensive line was a top-five unit prior to last season and is still a premier front five, even though they lost guard Eric Steinbach. There is a lot of continuity and chemistry here.
Palmer has spent an offseason working with his receivers, instead of rehabbing, and, like most of the weapons on this offense, is just entering his prime.
Behind him is the steady Rudi Johnson, who has topped 1,300 yards rushing for three seasons in a row, but gets little acclaim on this offense. He has the luxury of following a Pro Bowl fullback in Jeremi Johnson.
The Bengals could really use Chris Perry's versatility, but he will likely start the season battling ankle and shin injuries. His speed, outside running, and receiving skills compliment Rudi Johnson very well.
But considering the Bengals spent a second-round pick on Auburn running back Kenny Irons, they may not be so confident in his return.
The wide receivers will be without Chris Henry (suspension) for the first eight games of the season, but they should be more prepared to replace him this year. Antonio Chatman and Tab Perry have been working to plug the No. 3 hole at wide receiver.
At the top of the food chain, receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh still haven't maxed out and will continue to get better. Johnson can — and has — done better than last year's totals (1,369 receiving, 7 TD), while Houshmanzadeh has worked on his route-running and should narrow the yards disparity between him and Johnson.
The real difference-maker, though, is Chris Henry. As immature as he is off the field, he makes this passing game virtually impossible to defend. Without a threatening receiving tight end, Henry is the team's best red zone option. He has 15 touchdowns In 27 career games and seven of his nine touchdowns last season came in the red zone.
Regular Season Win Total: O/U 9
As mentioned before, the Bengals don't have much trouble stomping the have nots of the NFL and struggle versus quality opponents. But after struggling through an extremely difficult schedule in 2006, the Bengals have a much easier path to the playoffs this year.
The Bengals face only four teams that finished with winning records: @Seattle, New England, NY Jets, and Baltimore.
The Bengals will be favored in home contests versus Arizona, Tennessee, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, which should be considered wins. Throw in a split with Baltimore and a split in the two NE/NYJ home games, which leaves the Bengals three games short of the Over.
On the road, the Bengals go to Cleveland, Seattle, Kansas City (after a bye), Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami.
At worst, this should be a push, but the over looks good.
Biggest Weakness: Experience — This is a team with huge expectations, but does not have a lot of playoff experience. On defense, the Bengals are going young almost everywhere, which could provide inconsistency.
Offensive X-Factor: Chris Henry — Without a decent pass-catching tight end, and without Chris Perry, the Bengals don't have a third option in the passing game. Henry is that guy and he's pretty good — when he is not suspended.
Defensive X-Factor: Odell Thurman — He's a gifted playmaker from sideline-to-sideline. The Bengals need him to make more game-altering plays on defense.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
While Chad Johnson will be among the first wideouts taken in your fantasy draft, don't sweat it so much if you are like that guy in the NFL Network commercials, trying to pronounce T.J. Houshmanzadeh's name several rounds later. He is slighted that he doesn't get nearly as much credit as Johnson does and has put in a lot of time to polish up his game in the offseason. Look for his numbers to be much closer to Johnson's this year.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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