Will the Cardinals Fold or Call?

Let me preface this piece (and specifically address fellow columnist and loyal Redbird, Seth Doria) by saying the Cards are one of the great baseball franchises with a rich tradition, a staggeringly loyal and knowledgeable fan base, and a solid recent record of achievement. Last season ended in the best possible manner for the Cardinals, but even the most rabid fan could have spotted the holes in the team as the offseason progressed.

The most glaring was in the rotation and the patchwork solution Walt Jocketty came up with (Mark Mulder, who projected to be playing after the All-Star Break at best, Kip Wells, and moving Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright from the bullpen) was always a seat-of-the-pants-solution to backup Chris Carpenter.

Carpenters' surgery was unpredictable, but losing Jeff Weaver (who almost resembled the Weaver of Detroit under Dave Duncan) and Jeff Suppan has hurt. Neither are Cy Young material, but can be serviceable third or fourth starters and came with relatively reasonable price tags.

Kip Wells has been an enigma wrapped in a riddle for years, but it's easy to see why Jocketty was seduced by his (unfulfilled) potential, with his array of top quality pitches, including a high-90s fastball and unhittable curve that can make a batter look foolish. But he's never harnessed his talent over even half a season and the gamble hasn't paid off so far. Likewise with ex-Detroit lefty Mike Maroth, who was expected to produce better numbers in the NL, though his stuff is nowhere near what Wells can throw. Both Wells and Maroth, along with moving Looper and Wainwright from the 'pen, were reasonable moves given the payroll restrictions.

The other big question marks was where's the power to protect Albert Pujols? Chris Duncan, despite defensive shortcomings and Tony LaRussa sitting him against most lefties, has been stellar. After that, things go downhill rapidly. Juan Encarnacion has produced mediocre numbers, but they are in line with his career stats. Scott Rolen is playing through pain and is hearing it for his poor numbers — strangely as J.D. Drew heard it for not playing through pain. David Eckstein and Jim Edmonds have been on the DL and Adam Kennedy has stunk it up.

Jocketty is rumored to be considering his position for 2008 and if he walks, TLR might walk too. The payroll — at around $90 million — isn't exactly Tampa Bay, but it doesn't give a GM too much wiggle-room to cope with injuries or to get involved with big free agency signings, so it's understandable that Jocketty might be thinking about pastures new.

If he is in St. Louis next year, assuming the alleged rift with chairman Bill DeWitt over the rise in the organization of Jeff Luhnow at the expense of Jocketty loyalists can be fixed, does Jocketty deal away (and who) or deal for?

The first question is relatively simple to answer. With Carpenter done for the foreseeable future and the team having a mountain to climb to even claim a wildcard spot, 2007 is pretty much a done deal. The team doesn't need gutting as much as a fine-tune for a run at the playoffs next season. Within a relatively weak NL Central, it's fairly simple to contend with a payroll approaching $100 million.

He has some chips to deal, but hardly anything in the thin farm system, so building for 2008 is an easier task than trying to reclaim what's left of 2007. A look at the options available doesn't make pretty reading if the purpose is to bring in some major league ready (or close) prospects.

Scott Rolen carries a huge salary and a bum shoulder. He's also acquired the reputation of being surly in the clubhouse, without yet attaining full "clubhouse cancer" status. He could be dealt to a desperate contender (Dodgers?), but the odds of acquiring anything other than salary relief is minimal. Rolens' contract is a disaster — running through 2010 with $12 million a year due. Best-case scenario is that he's dealt, but the team will still be on the hook for a large portion of the money owed.

Chris Duncan has been mentioned as a possibility to be moved to a team short on power, but Duncan has been the best hitter bar Pujols on the team. Plus, he's cheap and the team have long-term control of him. Moving him for pitching is a shocking idea that can only have originated in Steve Phillips's head.

Jason Isringhausen would be highly prized on the market as he's (relatively) cheap for a premium closer at $8 million and he has a club option on his contract for 2008, after which he'll likely retire. He's been impeccable this year and nicely looked after by TLR and Duncan to avoid a stretch on the DL. He's got a trade veto and would likely use it, but trading him is a poor idea as he will be more than useful if the team are planning to contend in 2008.

Young pitcher Anthony Reyes was one of last season's highlights, but his 2007 has been nothing short of disastrous, going 0-10 with an ERA of 6.40. Reyes has rebounded somewhat since at AAA Memphis, but whether he has a long-term future in St. Louis is open to debate. If Dave Duncan (assuming he stays) thinks he can rebuild his confidence, there's little point in trading him as his value is low and he's cheap to take a chance on.

Juan Encarnacion is never going to set the world on fire and there are plenty of mediocre outfielders available to needy GMs. His contract ($5 million a year through 2008) might be worth moving, so the team can take a look at ex-pitcher turned slugging outfielder Rick Ankiel, who has showed some power in the minors though his swing is all-or-nothing.

Fan and media favorite David Eckstein has battled injuries and declining production the last two seasons. His contract is up at the end of the season and he's likely to ask for a multi-year deal in the region of $4 million per, which is the last thing Jocketty should agree to. Eckstein has a high profile for such an average player and a contender in need of a middle infielder might part with a prospect and pickup his salary. If anybody is desperate enough to make an offer, Jocketty should instantly pull the trigger as Brendan Ryan can fill in for the rest of '07, which will give the team time to see if he can hit at major league level.

Jim Edmonds is essentially Scott Rolen in the outfield. Even Edmonds couldn't believe the team gave him two years at $19 million. He has no-trade protection and is due $8 million next year. If the team can move him for partial salary relief, Walt Jocketty would throw a party. If he retired, he'd dance on the pitching mound butt naked.

Adam Kennedy is signed through 2009 with $7.5 million remaining after this season. He's had nightmare time in St. Louis, but might have some small value to a contender looking for infield depth.

So the pool of available and attractive vets that Jocketty can move for value is extremely thin. The only other option is to pull a "Herschel Walker" and move Albert Pujols (if you could get him to waive his no-trade clause), which would provoke a frenzied bidding war between the likes of the Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers and would instantly re-stock the farm system. It might be an option apart from the fact that Pujols is signed through 2011 at the (relatively) cheap price of $16 million per. Jocketty would be lynched for even considering it.

Without moving restrictive veteran contracts before April (unlikely, but not impossible), the '08 opening day line-up looks like this:

C – Yadier Molina
1B – Albert Pujols
2B – Adam Kennedy
3B – Scott Rolen
SS – Brendan Ryan
OF – Chris Duncan
OF – So Taguchi (club option for '08)/Jim Edmonds
OF – Rick Ankiel/Juan Encarnacion
SP – Mark Mulder
SP – Adam Wainwright
SP – Anthony Reyes
SP – Braden Looper
SP – Kip Wells/Mike Maroth/Todd Wellmeyer (all FAs, but cheap re-signs)
Pen – Ryan Franklin
Pen – Randy Flores
C – Jason Isringhausen

Milwaukee and Chicago will hardly be shaking in their boots at the prospect of facing that lineup in the NL Central, though patently the team will bolster certain positions during the coming months. But to what degree DeWitt allows the payroll to grow (it's currently 11th in MLB at present, despite being a cash-rich franchise) is the crucial question. The fans and managements loyalty, already tested, could be stretched to breaking point before the new season begins.