2007 NFL Preview: Buffalo Bills

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror

While the Giants and Jets are the Beyonce Knowles and Kelly Rowland for New Yorkers, the Buffalo Bills are that other, less relevant, third member of Destiny's Child to the Empire State.

With the emergence of the Jets as an unforeseen playoff team and the Giants continuous soap opera involving Eli Manning's growth and Tiki Barber's final season, the Bills two-game improvement in the win column went largely unnoticed.

In fact, after an offseason where their owner was derided during labor meetings and their general manager was mocked for passing on Matt Leinart in the draft and signing Peerless Price, the Bills were more than an afterthought; they were considered a joke.

But the Bills finished 5-4 in their final nine games and demonstrated significant progress during the first year of the Marv Levy/Dick Jauron regime.

As is par for the course in the NFL, when J.P. Losman struggled to acclimate himself to the NFL game during his first two seasons, everybody ripped him. But as he finally turned the corner last season, the audience was not around to applaud. On draft day in 2004, we were told that Losman, a Tulane product, was raw, but few critics wanted to give him time before making long-term assessments.

Losman enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2006, improving in virtually every category, including his much maligned completion percentage (grew from 49.6% in 2005 to 62.5% in 2006).

Losman wasn't the only one that did some developing as last season was for rebuilding and the Bills threw may of their youngsters into the fire.

Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson pushed aside veterans like Troy Vincent early on, while linebackers like Angelo Crowell and Keith Ellison earned valuable time, particularly when Takeo Spikes exited the lineup with injuries.

On the front lines, the Bills defensive lines went from pesky to near dominant in 2006 led by one of the best kept secrets in defensive end, Aaron Schobel. But Schobel finally had some protection from the other end position as Ryan Denney and Chris Kelsay set personal highs with 6 and 5.5 sacks, respectively. With the mid-season acquisition of Anthony Hargrove, the Bills quietly boasted one of the most effective defensive end rotations.

The Bills made defensive tackle a priority last offseason by signing Larry Tripplett and drafting John McCargo and Kyle Williams. Larry Tripplett was a steady tackle while Williams proved be a solid role player. McCargo's season was lost because of a foot injury.

Looking back at the 2006 draft, the Bills may have pulled one of their best classes to date. Whitner (first round) and Simpson (fourth round) started as rookies and so did Ellison (sixth round) by the end of the season. Williams (fifth round) is a cog in the defensive line rotation, while cornerback Ashton Youboty (third round) is batting for a starting spot this season. All have contributed and appear to have reasonable upside.

Switching back to the offense, while Losman emerged as a legit starter, he didn't receive a lot of help around him, save Lee Evans, who is on the fast track to becoming a Pro Bowler.

The offensive line was in-and-out, but mostly out. They had very little push in the running game, which eventually set up too many third-and-distance situations. The lone bright spots were Jason Peters, who is also on pace for many trips to Hawaii, and Melvin Fowler, who secured the center position.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: J.P. Losman

After the 2005 season, Losman had the confidence of an Atlantic City hooker and was beaten down by fans like a flimsy piñata.

In all honesty, though, finishing with a completion percentage under 50% after eight starts is a ticket to that kind of criticism.

In fairness, though, Losman was dicked around quite a bit in his second season and was forced to share time Kelly Holcomb.

Last year, Losman took the reigns and never gave them up and as the team invested confidence in his talents, he produced a strong ROI.

His completion percentage jumped up 12.9% to 62.5%, which was the sixth-best among AFC quarterbacks.

In 2005, Losman had a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio (8 TD, 8 INT), but improved his ratio with 19 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions. Only Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning had more touchdowns than him in the AFC.

It's a positive sign that Losman is continuing to get better. He tossed 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions in November and December (6/6 in the first two months of the season).

The best news is that he did his growing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the business. He was sacked 47 times last year, which was the most in the NFL (more than David Carr (41) and Andrew Walter (46).

Nowadays, when a quarterback fails to develop, fingers are usually pointed at the offensive line first and then the supporting cast. That's what makes Losman big leap so impressive. He was protected by one of the faultiest lines and was supported Lee Evans and nobody else.

Losman is a well-rounded quarterback with a powerful arm and good mobility. Now he's added poise and accuracy to the equation and is ready to turn around an offense that 30th in yards gained.

The Greatest Show On Turf Lite

Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild is a leaf from the Mike Martz tree and is trying to branch out an offense similar The Greatest Show On Turf.

By all accounts, the Bills have nothing close to the Rams' Kurt Warner days, but there is plenty of evidence that this offense should be exciting, and more importantly, better than their 30th ranking last season.

The first order of business in the offseason has been beefing up the offensive line, hence the richest contract in Bills history for guard Derrick Dockery. The Bills left side of Peters and Dockery will easily be their go-to side and could be a top-five tandem by season's end.

In the middle, the Bills are content with Fowler, but added former second-round pick Langston Walker and Jason Whittle to his right. Walker will start at tackle, while Whittle will battle for starting duties at right guard.

In the backfield, the Bills swapped out McGahee for first-round selection Marshawn Lynch.

Going back to the St. Louis Rams theme, Lynch is expected to play the Marshall Faulk-type role and will be a much more versatile weapon than McGahee ever was. Lynch has excellent hands and will be able to contribute in the passing game right away. He also boasts superior speed, vision, and outside running. He'll still split some carries with Anthony Thomas, who proved to be an effective runner between the tackles.

Next in line, following the theme of mimicking the Rams, is a deep wide receiving group. The Bills have that, although they only have one star right now. Evans is Pro Bowl ready and leads this group. Peerless Price is still effective and should post a stronger season now that he is acclimated to the offense and has regained his confidence.

That's a speedy duo but the real burner is Roscoe Parrish, who is finally on the cusp of emerging into a real dynamic weapon for this offense. He will start in the slot and is undoubtedly a difficult matchup from there.

With a group of small, fast wide receivers that player bigger than their size, this receiving corps does strike a resemblance to the Rams.

Throw in Losman, who has already shown he has the arm strength and accuracy, and the Bills are on their way to constructing a fun offense to watch.

It starts with the offensive line. If they block better, the tight ends will have to block less and will factor more as receivers. Next, the running game will improve and needless to say, the passing game will also spike in production if all of the latter assumptions go as planned.

Veteran Garage Sale

It's fairly evident that the Bills are going through a rebuilding process and are swapping out players from the old regime with Levy's and Jauron's preferred personnel. Even so, the Bills did not get equal value in their two main trades.

Running backs are a cheap commodity in the NFL, but the Bills could have received more for McGahee.

It's like when you are selling a house: a fresh paint job and some beautiful landscaping go a long way.

But instead, the Bills made it known that McGahee was a distraction and put him up for sale. Their return is essentially two early fourth-round picks, since Baltimore will be drafting late in the third round again next season, and a seventh-round pick. And the Bills also had to spend a first round pick to replace him.

On defense, the Bills seemingly found good value for Takeo Spikes when they acquired defensive tackle Darwin Walker from the Philadelphia Eagles. Walker fits the scheme perfectly and would be a vital asset to such a young defense, but the Bills forgot one thing: to secure a long-term contract.

It's no secret that Walker demanded a new contract. The Bills were well aware of his stipulations before and after they made the trade. But why not agree to terms beforehand and then complete the trade.

That would make more sense all the way around. Instead, the Bills have a messy holdout on their hands and might end up with just a sixth-round pick in return for Takeo Spikes and Kelly Holcomb.

The Bills had assets and got ripped-off twice. Acquiring commensurate value in return would have sped up their rebuilding process.

Biggest Weakness: Defensive back seven — The Bills' defensive line is fairly strong — with or without Walker — but the linebacking corps will start at least four first or second year players. The Bills will need to score more points this year to keep up.

Offensive X-Factor: J.P. Losman — Finished with the 11th-best QB rating and is the key to making this Bills offense a dangerous unit.

Defensive X-Factor: Safeties — With Nate Clements gone, cornerback Terrence McGee has to prove that he can handle No. 1 duties. This will be one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL and there will be a big burden on safeties Simpson and Whitner to protect them down the field.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

There is lots to love on this offense. For starters, Lee Evans will be a top-10 fantasy wideout. He hasn't had less than 7 touchdowns in a season and should have more than the 1,292 yards he caught last year. Losman could be a real sleeper, especially since all the offensive parts around him are better, and Lynch — barring any sort of a holdout — will be the starter. Keep in mind that the Bills have a young defense and will have to score a lot of points to bail out a young, inexperienced unit.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].