The images seem like they're fresh in my brain, but I still can't help but watch them over again whenever they pop up on a TV screen. It was a moment in time that showed everyone how pressure can be immense, instant, and overwhelming. The best way I can describe it is a mix of pain and shock. It also let us know that no matter how on top of your profession you are, moments of greatness can get to you, just like everyone else.
The year was 1999. The location: the site where this weekend's Open Championship will take place — the famed Scottish links of Carnoustie. At the time, I had just finished my freshman year at Iowa State and was back home for the summer.
When I was a wee lad, summer was the best of times (to sound Dickens-esque). I used to get up early and watch all the major sporting events that occurred across the Atlantic Ocean. The British was no exception. I remember being glued to the tube when Nick Price won at Turnberry in 1994. And I watched the next year, as well, when John Daly survived a three-way playoff at St. Andrews. When Tom Lehman, Ernie Els, and Mark O'Meara held the Claret Jug, I was there, watching through most of the tournament coverage.
'99 was different, though. I had started my transition from morning person to night owl that year. And getting up to watch the tournament became more of a chore than a pleasure. I was working and going to class during the week. I can't recall watching any of the coverage on Saturday. On Sunday, I rolled out of bed around 11:30ish (gimme some leeway, it's been eight years) and thought, "Oh yeah, wonder how the British is shaping up."
Even without watching every shot, I had heard about the rough conditions and the struggle for anyone to stay near par. By the end of the third round, only one man stood at even, while the closest competitors were three shots behind. That man, of course, was Frenchman Jean Van de Velde. A player without much distinction on the European Tour. He had won once in his 10 years on the tour (the 1993 Roma Masters).
However, he stood on the cusp of greatness, looking to be the first person of French descent to win the Open Championship since 1907. So, turning on the coverage, it was no surprise that I saw him coming to the 72nd hole of the tournament still holding that three-shot lead. That's when something phenomenal happened. Van de Velde started playing like me.
The rest is history. The first shot sliced right to another fairway. The second shot into, the rejected from, the grandstands. The third shot fluffed into the Barry Burn. The bizarre sequence of him possibly hitting the ball from that spot. The (dropped) fifth shot plunked in the bunker. And the up-and-down to save triple bogey.
It was the train wreck some might have seen coming. But at that point, with one hole to play and a three-shot cushion, even those skeptics couldn't have foretold something so fantastic. It couldn't quite register in my brain. A somewhat Tin Cup moment placed into reality.
Sure, there have been gaffs before. Doug Sanders missed a three-foot putt to win the 1970 British. Roberto DeVicenzo famously signed his partner's scorecard, which had been scored incorrectly, to disqualify himself from the 1968 Masters. Phil Mickelson tried to imitate the meltdown with his error-filled 18th hole at the 2006 U.S. Open.
But could you imagine any of these guys doing what Van de Velde ended up accomplishing at Carnoustie? The perfect storm had come together. One last hole, a comfortable lead, a journeyman golfer, and a sport based on singular (not team) performance looked expectation right in the face and got summarily plowed over.
For me, the golf world changed that day. I now knew that while any lead was a lead, it also presented the question, "What lead is a safe one?" And I know I'm not the only casual golfer that was affected by that sequence of events. Out there, somewhere, are people who changed how they approach the game due to one man who went for it and came up dramatically short.
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The Lack of Future Credibility Files
Now that I'm thinking of 1999, I might as well invoke some of my collegiate ways of life into my more (*cough*) mature writing. My senior year at ISU, I wrote a weekly column for the school paper. At the end of almost every one, I would include a section called "Absurd Predictions." Now, being older and wiser, I figured I would revamp the idea with a more verbose sounding title.
The summer season is basically half over, but there's still much to be done. Several golf majors will play out, along with the 2007 baseball marathon and the (pretty much) season-ending tennis grand slam in Flushing Meadow. Here's some of my takes on what will happen through the end of summer and beginning of fall.
Barry Bonds will break Major League Baseball's home run record on August 8th.
It's tough to tell with Bonds' sitting schedule and walk-to-at bat ratio, but I believe he'll hit dinger number 756 against the Nationals in the loving arms of his San Francisco faithful. I think he'll get one more on this road trip (Chicago and Milwaukee), then two more at home (versus Atlanta and Florida), before tying the record in L.A. around the 1st.
Tiger Woods will win the PGA Championship.
This isn't so much of an absurdity as much as it is hedging my bets. I've been saying this ever since he finished runner-up at Oakmont last month. That, combined with the second-place finish at Augusta in April, makes him prime for a major. However, I just don't see him winning at Carnoustie.
Southern Hills, minus the heat and the tricked up rough of the 2001 U.S. Open, should do him well in August. I'm looking at a final tally of seven under for the championship.
Roger Federer will not win the U.S. Open.
The Swiss maestro's five-set thriller against Rafael Nadal was classic, but I believe more surprises are around the corner when Federer cruises through New York City. I expect Andy Roddick to do well in his second season under Jimmy Connors. Also watch out for that Australian pistol known as Lleyton Hewitt. And while Nadal will make a nice run, he won't be holding the trophy on Arthur Ashe court, either.
Two sleepers to watch out for. One is Fernando Gonzalez. The Chilean is still rising, and his improved play during last year's hardcourt season (three semifinals and one quarter) is worth watching. Then, there's one of three men to defeat Federer the entire year. The only difference is, Guillermo Canas has done it twice on the hard surface, where Nadal and Filippo Volandri didn't. Just sayin' I wouldn't want him in my draw if I was Rog.
The Cubs and Mariners will make the playoffs.
I'm saying it right here. As off-the-wall as it may be, the Cubs (with more consistent starting pitching than before) will be the NL Wildcard, while the M's (with plucky play from some unheralded veterans) will win the AL West.
I understand that the Angels are still loaded, and the Cubs are still the Cubs (period). But Seattle does have a potent lineup, as well, with tablesetter Ichiro Suzuki and five players over 45 RBIs. And Chicago is miles ahead of where people thought they'd be with no Mark Prior or Kerry Wood, plus Derek Lee with only 8 home runs and 48 RBIs. I expect these surprising starts to continue, but it is just wishful thinking (as are all of my absurdities ... you'll get used to it).
Since I've covered some of the biggies for the rest of the summer, I'll save my next batch of files for the NFL season. The crystal ball and tarot cards should be warmed up by then.
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