2007 NFL Preview: Atlanta Falcons

2006 In The Rearview Mirror

Like in 2004 and 2005, the Falcons shot out of a canon at the start of the 2006 season with a 5-2 start. After wins in Carolina and Cincinnati, combined with home wins to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, the Falcons looked like they — once again — had turned the corner.

The rushing offense was once again fluid, even though the third head of the three-headed monster was swapped out. A smaller, quicker Jerious Norwood replaced the power supplied by T.J. Duckett, which proved to be a shrewd decision.

But as the Falcons' rushing game reigned supreme once again, just as it typically did during the Jim Mora/Alex Gibbs era, the rest of the was average or below average at every other facet.

On offense, quarterback Michael Vick still looked like a running back playing quarterback. His passing accuracy was so feebly inconsistent that by the end of the season, the coaching staff was experimenting with him at running back.

While a large share of the passing failures can be pinned on the guy who allegedly houses dog fights, there is enough blame to go around.

For starters, the wide receivers, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, have been a bigger letdown than "Oceans 12" and "Oceans 13". White frequently drops passes while Jenkins is simply inconsistent.

Not helping the issues was the fact that the offensive line was far more capable of run blocking than pass protecting.

Both lines of scrimmage proved to be weakness for the Falcons.

On defense, the addition of Abraham was supposed to improve on the 37 sacks that Atlanta notched in 2005. But Abraham only played eight games.

On the opposite side, Patrick Kerney, a key pillar for the Falcons defense for many years, was limited to nine games also due to injury.

The Falcons' sack total did not improve in 2006 and with these playmaking defensive ends spending lots of time on the sidelines, the Falcons' defense — inherently — didn't make enough plays.

The secondary proved to be a weak link as the acquisition of free safety Chris Crocker proved to a mistake, while the signing of strong safety Lawyer Milloy didn't result as planned since he clearly lacked range in coverage.

At cornerback, the Falcons were banking on the development of rookie Jimmy Williams, which never progressed, and to finally at the cherry on top, "Pro Bowl" cornerback DeAngelo Hall was painfully burned up and down the field on numerous occasions.

In the past four seasons, the Falcons' pass defense has averaged a ranking of 24th, mostly because management has failed to find the right help.

The Falcons have spent first-day picks on Jimmy Williams and Bryan Scott, second-day picks on Etric Pruitt and Waine Bacon, and burned free agent money on Jason Webster. Throw in the acquisition of Crocker, who cost the Falcons a fourth-round pick, and it is plain to see the horrible track record in this secondary.

Only Williams and Crocker are still with the team and Williams, a cornerback by nature, has been shifted to free safety to replace Crocker. Even the signing of Milloy has been scrutinized.

The free agency mess goes a bit further. Inking Edgerton Hartwell has provided an injury-prone player who talks the talk, but rarely walks the walk. If Abraham is plagued by injuries yet again, soon I'll be adding him to this list.

While the secondary struggled, the front seven did have some bright spots. Keith Brooking always shines, but now has some company from rising star Michael Boley. The defensive tackle tandem of Rod Coleman and Grady Jackson are the football equivalent of Earthquake and Tugboat, and are quietly underrated.

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers: Michael Vick

Let's deal with the burning question that now burns more than the herpes that Ron Mexico has allegedly passed around: has Michael Vick improved as a passer?

No.

Vick's passing yardage, interceptions, and quarterback rating haven't significantly changed in the past three seasons. In fact, aside from tossing a couple more touchdown passes last year, Vick's statistics are beginning to show some consistency.

2004:
15 GP, 181-321, 56.4%, 2313 YDS, 14 TD, 12 INT, 78.1 QB rating

2005:
15 GP, 214-387, 55.3%, 2412 YDS, 15 TD, 13 INT, 73.1 QB rating

2006:
16 GP, 204-388, 52.6%, 2474 YDS, 20 TD, 13 INT, 75.7 QB rating

Vick now has seven seasons in the league and has not progressed in the last three seasons. It's time to realize that this is who he is.

In seven seasons, Vick's personal benchmark for completion percentage is 56.4%. His new backup, Joey Harrington, has a higher career completion percentage and he's been chased out of two cities.

There's no question that Vick's game is different the Joey Blue Skies and obviously he brings other utensils to the table, but as a pure passer, Vick isn't accurate enough.

Take a look at his QB rating per week as his pass attempts increase:

2005:

Attempts 1-10: 89.1
Attempts 11-20: 66.7
Attempts 21-30: 55.1

2006:

Attempts 1-10: 79.4
Attempts 11-20: 75.5
Attempts 21-30: 70.2

Hiring Bobby Petrino buys Vick one more year of time to prove that he is still on the way up but should his plateau continue, the Falcons might start thinking about life after Vick.

If It's Broke, Fix It

The Falcons have led the NFL in rushing during the past three seasons, but their aerial attack finished dead last in 2006. Hence the hiring of one of the brightest passing minds among the college ranks: Bobby Petrino.

The main changes for the offense are as follows:

• The passing game will include a complex audible system, which will allow the QB to read the defense and switch off to several other plays at the line of scrimmage
• Beef up the offensive line to ameliorate the pass protection
• Switching to a power running game, opposed to the previous finesse style

The latter two changes are based on the offensive line, which shouldn't have a problem beefing up. In fact, a number of the linemen complained last season because the Alex Gibbs' scheme required them to stay light on their feet and keep their weight in check.

The additional weight will facilitate the Falcons desire to employ a mauling running style.

Taking a glance at the running backs on staff, it makes sense that this be the year that Warrick Dunn finally passes the torch. He has produced extremely well in three consecutive, but he doesn't bring power to the table. Jerious Norwood, who is a bit bigger and possesses similar shiftiness and speed, will handle a bigger load this season. Also, the Falcons heavily invested in fullback Ovie Mughelli, who will clear some paths and help with short yardage.

As mentioned before, the Falcons have ridded themselves of the zone blocking scheme, which helped them to the top of the rushing ranks. Needless to say, expect a drop-off in rushing production, even if it is not a great one.

As far as Michael Vick adapting to the new read-and-react offense, forgive me if I'm skeptical.

The Falcons' offense has been as basic as it gets the past few seasons and in that environment, Vick didn't flourish as a passer. Now the offensive playbook is on the opposite end of the spectrum and Vick is expected to handle a bigger responsibility?

Vick's qualifications look like this:

Strong arm; excellent at improvising; great at eluding pressure and escaping with his feet.

Reading defenses, judging blitzes, and finding the right receiver are the opposite of strengths.

Reading defenses has been one of Vick's biggest flaws and now that skill is going to be emphasized further. Third-string quarterback Chris Redman, who played under Bobby Petrino at Louisville, said that this offense is even more complex, which doesn't bode well for Vick, who hasn't proven to be a heady quarterback on or off the field (see fingering fans or smuggling at the airport).

On defense, the Falcons front four is one of the better units in the league. Abraham and Coleman are Pro Bowl caliber, Grady Jackson is a solid roadblock, and expectations are high for the Falcons' first-round pick, Jamaal Anderson.

But that's all on paper.

In reality, Coleman, who injured his quadriceps in a watercraft accident, could miss the first month of the regular season. Jackson, at age 34, could start to break down, Anderson could perform like a rookie, and Abraham, who has missed 21 games over the last four seasons, is injury-prone.

The Falcons need their front four to be healthy and potent because the secondary is under construction.

Hall has one corner locked down but the other spot is up for grabs. Like last season, the Falcons will bank on a second round pick to win the job and establish himself. Rookie Chris Houston will battle Lewis Sanders for the gig.

Crocker and Williams will battle for the free safety spot, but this isn't exactly Ali vs. Foreman. The best case scenario is that Williams, a transformed cornerback, wins the job and develops into a starter.

The secondary that allowed the fourth-worst yards-per-reception average (12.2) and permitted the third-most receptions of 40 yards or longer (14) isn't significantly improved, so they will need help from the defensive line to mask their deficiencies.

The Falcons' linebacking corps is a strong suit with Brooking, Boley, and Demorrio Williams, who is undersized, but high on effort. They also play well in pass coverage, which should prove to be useful.

Biggest Weakness: Safety — Milloy is past his prime, Crocker stunk as a starter last season, and Williams is a project.

Offensive X-Factor: Vick — If he becomes an efficient passer, the offense will have balance and the Falcons will be tough to beat. If not, Vick's days as a Falcon could be coming to an end.

Defensive X-Factor: John Abraham — Although he set a career low for sacks last season (4), he still had four fumbles forced in eight games. He is dominant when healthy and has worked on his strength in the offseason.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Dunn will be likely be drafted ahead of Norwood in most drafts, but Norwood is bigger than Dunn and is better suited for the new style of running. Look for the carries to be shared closer to 50-50, which makes Norwood the better investment if you draft him several rounds later. Dunn had only two more rushing touchdowns than Norwood last year.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].