NBA Draft ‘07: Lead Pipe Lock?

It is a little after 7 PM on June 28th at Madison Square Garden, the Portland Trail Blazers are on the clock to start the 2007 NBA draft, and it is a given that they will select Greg Oden with the No. 1 pick, right? In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend.

Greg Oden has been destined to be the top pick since he was 14-years-old and conventional wisdom says you always draft the big man. There is only one problem with that logic.

Kevin Durant is a better basketball player than Oden, and the margin between them will continue to widen as they develop their games in the NBA.

I know what most of you are saying right now. How could you not draft a 19-year-old, 7'1", 280-pound center who can rebound and block shots with the frequency that Oden does? Isn't that what you are supposed to be able to do when you are that size?

The reason you pass on a player like that is because of the chance to draft a once in a lifetime type talent with unlimited potential. Durant is a matchup nightmare on both ends of the court, given his 6'10", 215-pound body with a 7'5" wingspan.

What sets him apart is that he already has a stellar offensive game, can play three positions, and most importantly he seems to have that "it" factor that defines true superstar athletes. With the game on the line, he wants the ball in his hands and he fully expects that he will deliver every time.

If Oden was being drafted by an Eastern Conference team with the No. 1 pick, I would be more apt to agree with taking him ahead of Durant. However, both Portland and Seattle are in the West, where the top six scoring teams in the NBA reside. The entire conference plays up-tempo basketball, which means Oden will be required to run on both ends of the court for 48 minutes. Anyone who has seen him play knows that is definitely not one of his strong points.

Don't get me wrong, I think Oden will be an excellent defensive center in the NBA from day one, and over time he could become dominant on the offensive end, as well. The fact that he used the injury to his right hand to greatly improve his left shows that he has the desire to get better.

The problem with Oden is that neither his words nor his actions thus far show that he wants to be a great player, to be the face of a team. He has talked many times about wanting to be a dentist and only getting involved in playing basketball because of his size. In almost every game he played in college, he was bigger and stronger than the man guarding him, yet he rarely dominated a game to lead his team to the win.

Many people will point out that he had 25 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks in the championship game against Florida, but that was mainly because the Gators' strategy was to play Oden one-on-one and shutdown Ohio State's outside shooters. The strategy worked, as the Buckeyes went 4-of-23 (17%) from three-point land and the 85-74 final score led you to believe the game was closer than it actually was.

On the other hand, Durant repeatedly showed the ability and willingness to take over games. You can look to the 25-point first half he had against a very good Kansas team in Phog Allen Fieldhouse or him putting up 37 points and 23 rebounds to beat Texas Tech as examples. He proved to be extremely consistent, as well, scoring more than 20 points in 30 of 35 games and recording 20 double-doubles as a freshman.

He can also play defense, even though you rarely ever hear about it. Despite not having Oden's height and physique, Durant still out-rebounded him 11.1 rpg to 9.6 while playing away from the basket for the most part. He also made the Big 12 All-Defensive Team, averaging 2 blocks and 2 steals per game.

In order to be a dominant player in the NBA, you have to have the mindset that you are the best player on the court and the other team simply can't stop you. This is where Oden and Durant seem to be polar opposites, and they both voiced that recently.

"I consider myself a role player. I understand people are projecting me to be a top pick, and those guys are supposed to be franchise guys. But I'm not the kind of guy who needs to come in and take over." Oden had this to say recently when asked about his game by L.Z. Granderson of ESPN.

Is that really the attitude you want your best player to have? If I am going to pay the kind of money that Oden will receive and make him the face of my franchise, I want him to have the confidence in his game and the killer instinct to put a team away in the fourth quarter. I don't want a passive player who will look to defer to his teammates when the game is on the line.

Durant's perspective of his game is at the opposite end of the spectrum, as evidenced when he made these comments to ESPN's Elena Bergeron recently.

"I've been training to be a franchise player since I was 9."

"I wasn't training just to make an NBA team, though. I don't want to be a role player. I want to be the guy a team depends on."

It is that kind of statement that makes NBA execs have second thoughts about selecting Oden even at a time when there are so few dominant centers.

That is what happens when confronted with a player like Durant, who some have said is a M.J./K.G./T-Mac hybrid. NBA teams love to draft players on potential, and with Oden, you know what to expect. With Durant, there is no ceiling to what type of player he could become, because a player with his skill set has never come along before.

The most important part of the decision Portland makes is how Oden or Durant will fit in with their current roster. It would seem like that should make this an easy decision for them.

The Trail Blazers already have two quality inside players in Zach Randolph (as long as he stays out of trouble) and LaMarcus Aldridge. If they draft Oden, it means they most likely trade Randolph, and I seriously doubt they get good value back for him given his contract and off the-court incidents.

They also have a star in the making in ROY Brandon Roy. What they are lacking is someone who can score and defend on the outside, which Durant could come in and immediately provide.

This would also make it much easier for Seattle. They already have Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, so they don't have the need for a player who will play the two or the three like Durant would, but boy could they sure use Oden in the middle. They played last season with Nick Collison at center, averaging 9 points and 8 rebounds, and don't have a single player who averaged more than a block per game.

The fact is that Portland will probably choose to go the safe route and take Oden, then blow up half of their team trying to bring in the right guys to complement him. Seattle will then take Durant and likely have to do the same thing. Such is life in the NBA these days.

When I think of this comparison, I can't help but think back to the 1984 draft when Hakeem Olajuwon was considered the best prospect and was chosen No. 1 overall. He went on to win two NBA titles and had a Hall of Fame career. You can't really argue with that pick, unless the following happens.

Michael Jordan, who was selected No. 3, goes on to win six NBA titles and is considered the greatest player ever. Something tells me if they had a do-over that Houston probably wouldn't select Olajuwon again.

Will Portland and Seattle be that fortunate with Oden and Durant? Time will tell if that is true, but the scenario could play out the same. The big man may be the safe pick, but can the Blazers buck conventional wisdom and simply choose the best basketball player?

Kevin Durant is really that good, and the scary thing is that he is only going to get better. The sky is the limit.