It sneaks up on you, staying out of mind long enough that you forget about it. Then it pounces on you at the most vulnerable moment, leaving you embarrassingly unprepared.
No, not an anniversary. I'm talking about MLB all-star voting.
The problem is that as our significant other (you know, baseball) catches you with your pants down, tosses you a ballot, and you fill it out to the best of your knowledge. Then you end up like those guys in the ESPN commercials talking sports out of the wrong orifice.
Carlos Beltran over Matt Holliday? Really? Are you purposefully abstaining from looking at stats all year, or just until football season? A knowledgeable friend who found out about the ballot would give you a confused, hurt, angry look, like you just punched a small child in the head.
The all-star team should be about who is having the best season this year, who the fans want to see, and who has accomplished more in their career, in that order. And the first one is so far in front of the other two, Prince Fielder couldn't hit a baseball from one to the other. And so managers end up cleaning up the fans' mess.
To their credit, the fans get it right. Occasionally. But usually it takes several pieces on 'Baseball Tonight" and columns online to point out where fans are going astray before even the more egregious mistakes are rectified. But this is fan voting. It will always be imperfect, often reflecting the size of a player's fan base or his historical value, rather than his performance in the season at hand. People like recognizable players, but they shouldn't want to keep watching lineups representing just three markets, or repeats of the 2002 all-star team year after year. (Enjoy starters Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Jason Giambi, Shea Hillenbrand, and Derek Lowe. Don't ask about the reserves, but Randy Winn was involved.)
Here are the 2007 starters as they should be:
National League
Catcher — Russell Martin
He trailed Paul LoDuca and Brian McCann a couple weeks ago, but fans woke up and smelled the pine tar, putting the second year catcher in the lead. Even with pure hitting stats, he is by far the premier catcher in the NL. Throw on top of that his 11 steals (no other NL catcher has more than two) and cannon for an arm (35 percent of base stealers hosed, third in NL), and the case is closed.
First Base — Prince Fielder
Nearly right off the bat, prime example of a name carrying a player. Albert Pujols is in the lead in the fan voting as one of the most recognizable figures of the game. He is putting up all-star type numbers again. He also trails Fielder's 25 jacks by nine, and Fielder's .637 slugging percentage by almost 90 points. This vote is within 50,000, a very surmountable number. And at least in this case you can actually make an argument (albeit a weak one) for Pujols. Better overall hitter with half the strikeouts, better fielder, etc. Pujols remains the most feared hitter in the NL. But Fielder has had a better '07, and should get the nod at first.
Either way, both will be in San Francisco. And I do worry more about whether the right players get there than whether the right ones start.
Second Base — Chase Utley
His cover is blown. No baseball fan with a pulse remains unaware of him. And he pretty much leads all MLB two-baggers in every major category including average (.320), OBP (.397), homers (12), and RBI (54). If you put any other name down, surrender your ballot and exit stage right.
Third Base — Miguel Cabrera
Another pick a mildly-retarded chimpanzee could make. Leads the NL (and trailing only the obvious AL starter) among third basemen in those same four stats (.332, .400, 16, 51). Of course, David Wright leads the voting. Granted, there are more people in New York aware of its National League team than in Florida. (Then again, more people in Nairobi are aware of the Marlins than in Miami.) And no other voters looked at a stat. Wright's a great player, but his sluggish start leaves him trailing notably (.280, .370, 12, 37), not to mention a 121-point lag behind Cabrera in slugging. His stellar defense and 16 steals can only go so far. Cabrera is the clear choice; the fans take their first embarrassing defeat.
Shortstop — Jose Reyes
The debate between the value of a power hitter and a leadoff hitter will rage for a long time. But this case it's a non-issue, because no team likes dealing with a leadoff hitter that gets on 40 percent of the time and is on pace to steal, oh, about 89 bases. But the choice for NL reserve shortstop is closer than you think. Stay tuned.
Outfield — Matt Holliday, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey, Jr.
Vote leader Carlos Beltran and his .266 average needs to be weeded from your ballot. Fast. His best stat is 36 runs, which places him 10th. In the NL. Among outfielders. And it's a tie with Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras. Not even good enough stats for a reserve. Also, Alfonso Soriano, third in the fan voting, simply doesn't compare with the three top guns. So the fans have made a mess.
The three that should be in are pretty clear cut, despite fan confusion. Holliday has been one of the best hitters in the league at any position, leading the NL with a .360 average ... by a 32-point margin. And his 11 homers and 53 RBI are nothing to spit at. (Unless you are the fans putting him eighth among NL outfielders in votes.)
Meanwhile, say what you want, Bonds gets on nearly half the time (.492, a slow pitch softball number) and even while walking 67 times, finds time to hit 14 homers. This is all-star voting, not a steroid tribunal, and Bonds is still one of the best hitters in the game. Meanwhile Griffey is quietly hitting like it's 1999, and this year actually deserves his fan vote, which is usually way too high. Only Bonds and Holliday have better OPS among outfielders, and his 18 homers trail only Fielder and teammate Adam Dunn (whose 90 strikeouts put him into the reserve pile) in the NL.
American League
Catcher — Victor Martinez
Ivan Rodriguez is winning the fan vote. Jorge Posada is having the best offensive year. Neither should be the AL's starting backstop. Martinez is the most complete catcher in the league. This is one position where defense counts for more than the others. Martinez throws out 29 percent of base-stealers, better than Rodriguez (who is completely outclassed offensively). Posada, however, may as well be an accomplice, stopping just 18.5 percent of thieves, worst in the AL among qualified catchers. Martinez also has Posada beat in homers (13-9) and RBI (57-43), nearly negating Posada's edges in average (.345-.323) and OBP (.404-.381).
And with two catchers so similar offensively, who do you want behind the dish when Jose Reyes reaches in the first? If it's Posada, may as well bust out crime tape around second base. At fifth, Martinez won't take the fan vote, so it could get hairy if I-Rod does, leaving the other two in the reserve pool.
First Base — David Ortiz
Papi will win the vote. Boston votes like New York. Early and often. But he sure doesn't double up Justin Morneau in offense the way he is in votes right now. The reigning AL MVP (yes, Morneau, strange as it sounds) leads AL players not named A-Rod in homers with 20 (nearly doubling up Papi's 11), and leads all first basemen with 54 RBI. But, despite a decent .355 mark, he trails Ortiz in OBP by 95 points. So popular consensus leads us true in this case; Ortiz is a better hitter. Seeing him play defense at the NL park should be fun, too, for completely different reasons.
Second Base — Brian Roberts
No where on either squad is there a bigger black hole. Ten days ago, B.J. Upton would have been the choice, but he hasn't played since June 8 and just went on the DL. No other options even have sac fly power (except Ian Kinsler and his .231 average). Placido Polanco leads fan voting, and with a .338 average and .380 OBP, he's not a bad choice. Better than Robinson Cano (.313 OBP), who's in second, riding the New York effect. But it's Roberts, with his .392 OBP (Upton the only 2B higher, at .396), and 22 steals (Upton second with 13) that makes the best choice. But Roberts is not even in the top five in voting. Swing and a miss, fans.
Third Base — Alex Rodriguez
What, you were expecting Mike Lowell?
Shortstop — Derek Jeter
Orlando Cabrera makes a strong case, with his .342 average, .383 OBP, 38 RBI, and 48 runs. And he will be in the Bay Area for the game ... watching Jeter start (.346, .422, 50 runs, as many steals, and two more homers).
Outfield — Magglio Ordonez, Vladamir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki
The fans have Manny Ramirez in position to start the game, presumably because they like the dreads. I cannot think of another reason. Vlad and Ichiro deserve their places in the top three in the voting. But leaving out a guy like Ordonez is mystifying. Ordonez has Man-Ram beat by (inhale...) 78 average points, 52 OBP points, 174 slugging points, 19 runs scored, 3 homers, 25 RBI, and 1 steal. Those are serious margins. Although Ramirez is a much more awkward defender, so he has that going for him.
Starting Pitchers — Jake Peavy vs. Dan Haren
Even though the coaches decide this, I will pick those two now, as well. Mainly because it's too damn easy; it's not close. The league's only two ERAs below two and lowest two opponent batting averages (neither higher than .201) alone make a compelling case for the most dominant pitchers in the majors. They are each in the top five in almost every major pitching category.
Barring a blowup in the next couple weeks, if either doesn't start, then Tony LaRussa is back on the sauce and Jim Leyland has begun the onset of Alzheimer's.
That was the easy part. Next week: the reserves.
By the beard of Kevin Youkilis, help me.
Leave a Comment