Monday, June 4, 2007
Steroids: Beyond Barry Bonds
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Five Quick Hits
* I admit that I don't root for the underdog as often as I probably should. Go Spurs.
* It's starting to look like the NFL has a legitimate dog-fighting problem on its hands. Michael Vick is now being identified as a "heavyweight" within this particular area of the criminal world.
* Clinton Portis thinks Vick should be able to do whatever he wants on his property. Even if it's cruel and illegal. Hey Portis, think Vick should be entitled to kill babies on his property? No? Okay, what about dogs?
* It's hard not to feel sorry for Gil Meche. The guy's having an awfully good season, but he plays for the Royals and he's 3-4.
* More bad news for the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals, as catcher Yadier Molina will miss at least a month with a fractured left wrist. If the Cards wanted to build a dynasty, they should have started winning Series in '03 or '04. Those teams had the talent to do it.
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As I write this, Barry Bonds has 746 career home runs. Barring injury, he will break Henry Aaron's all-time record for major league home runs by the end of July, maybe even June. I wrote a column two months ago about Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, steroids, and the chase for 756 home runs. I don't intend to rehash that in this space.
It is worth noting that dozens — probably hundreds — of Major League Baseball players have used performance-enhancing drugs and hormones. No one else has accomplished what Bonds has. He's a cheater, and that carries a disgrace that no accomplishment can make up for, but regardless of the unsavory ways Bonds has sustained — and even improved — his performance as he has gotten older, his level of play is spectacular and does merit respect.
Only two names come to mind as reasonable parallels for Bonds and his amazing late-career performance. One is Aaron, who hit 245 homers after he turned 35. The other is Roger Clemens.
The Aaron comparisons are obvious as Bonds nears the career home run record, but the Clemens comparison may be more interesting, because Clemens — like Bonds — played during the steroid era. This season, Bonds is among the best players in either league, with an OPS of around 1.100. Clemens, who signed with the Yankees just under a month ago, is struggling in the minors. But Clemens, like Bonds, has had his best seasons much later than one would expect.
Clemens made his major league debut in 1984 and compiled an impressive 9-4 record. After a good but not earth-shattering 1985 season, Clemens reeled off seven straight seasons with 17 wins or more, including three Cy Young seasons. In 1993, Clemens had the first losing season of his career, 11-14. His ERA was above 4.00 for the first time since his rookie season in '84. In 1994, Clemens failed to win 10 games for the first time since his second season. The next year, his ERA was over 4.00 again. After a 10-13 1996, the Red Sox let Roger Clemens go. He was a 34-year-old power pitcher who had used himself up early.
The Toronto Blue Jays took a chance on Clemens, and he rewarded them with a Cy Young season in 1997: 21-7, 2.05 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP that was his best in over a decade, and a career-high 292 strikeouts. Clemens repeated as AL Cy Young winner the next season, then left Toronto for the Yankees. By this time Clemens was 36.
During his five seasons in New York, Clemens never recorded an ERA under 3.50 or a WHIP under 1.20. He did have a fantastic 2001 season, finishing 20-3, throwing over 200 strikeouts, and winning his sixth Cy Young Award. What was most remarkable about Clemens' time with the Yankees was that he seemed to improve during his time there. Comparing his last two years in New York to his first two, Clemens had more wins, fewer losses, a better ERA, and more strikeouts. He was a better pitcher in 2003 than he was in 1999. For that matter, Clemens was a better pitcher in 2003, at age 40, than he had been at age 30.
Greg Maddux, the best pitcher of the 1990s, has always had phenomenal control, and his sustained success as he got older was impressive, but not shocking. Clemens is a power pitcher. His control is fine, but Clemens beat hitters with power, not precision. Such players tend to wear down quickly. Many power pitchers lose their best stuff before their mid-30s. Clemens has had some of his best seasons after he turned 35.
Clemens won three Cy Young Awards before he turned 29. He already had a record of 134-61, with a 2.85 ERA and 1,665 strikeouts. From 1993-96, Clemens went 40-39 with a 3.77 ERA and averaged 179 strikeouts per year. In the next seven seasons, with Toronto and New York, Clemens rebounded: 118-49, 3.44 ERA, 216 strikeouts per year, and three more Cy Youngs.
Following the 2003 season, Clemens announced his retirement, but he couldn't stay away, and joined the Houston Astros for the 2004 campaign. Now 41-years-old, Clemens went 18-4, kept his ERA under 3.00 for the first time since he was 34, and threw over 200 strikeouts. He was named the National League's Cy Young Award winner. The next season, Houston's weak offense limited Clemens to a 13-8 record, but he posted a career-best 1.87 ERA. In 2006, Clemens made fewer than 20 appearances for the first time in over 20 years, but he was effective when he played, with a sterling 2.30 ERA. During his three seasons in Houston, Clemens was 38-18, with a 2.40 ERA.
In the 10 years since he turned 34, Clemens has won four Cy Young Awards — more than any other major league pitcher except Randy Johnson, who also has four. Pedro Martinez has three. Tom Glavine has one. Maddux doesn't have any. Curt Schilling doesn't have any.
In the 10 years since he turned 34, Clemens has won 156 games. His .700 winning percentage (156-67) is better than the .634 record (192-111) he posted with Boston during the years when most pitchers are in their primes.
Roger Clemens has performed almost as remarkably in the later stages of his career as Bonds has. He won a Cy Young Award after he turned 40. He had the lowest ERA of his career at 42. Bonds, of course, has been implicated in the BALCO Scandal, and while he has never tested positive for steroids, exhaustive research indicates beyond any reasonable doubt that Bonds used performance-enhancing drugs. Clemens, less publicly, has been implicated in the Jason Grimsley case. Like Bonds, he has never tested positive for steroids.
Regardless of whether they have used anabolic steroids, human growth hormone, or anything else, the things Bonds and Clemens have accomplished are incredible, even more so because they were achieved at an age when most players are in decline. Many hitters use steroids. They don't all hit 700 home runs. Many pitchers take steroids. They don't all win seven Cy Youngs.
In the coming weeks, Barry Bonds will break Aaron's career home run record, and you'll hear a lot about the allegations that he has used steroids. In the coming weeks, Roger Clemens will probably return to the major leagues and try to help the Yankees reach the playoffs. You probably won't often hear his name connected with steroids. But there are compelling reasons to believe that Barry Bonds is not the only future Hall of Famer whose hat size has increased since he turned 30. This is the Steroid Era, and there isn't a player in the game who we know is clean. It's a tough time to be a baseball fan, and it's a discouraging time to look at the world of sports for heroes.