NOTE: The great thing about the NFL draft is that no matter how much analysis or research we've done, there are always unexpected stories that develop. Different characters are brought into the limelight, either by being selected much earlier or much later than the national consensus predicted. This column isn't so much a "draft preview" as it is an attempt to look ahead to one of those possible stories.
So I was working on my NFL mock draft, and everything was going great. A few chalk picks (JaMarcus Russell to the Raiders), a few surprises (Levi Brown to Arizona at #5, assuming Joe Thomas is off the board to Detroit at 2) and more than a few semi-guesses.
But one player nagged me throughout - Cal RB Marshawn Lynch. Pretty much every board has him second at RB behind Adrian Peterson, which seems entirely reasonable. In 2006, Lynch was the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year with 1,421 yards rushing, 328 yards receiving and 15 touchdowns. He can return kicks and runs a 4.46 40.
But assuming Peterson goes in the top 10 (anywhere from Cleveland at 3 to Houston at 10) and Lynch doesn’t (a fairly universal assumption), you have to wonder who is going to bite on Lynch from 11 down.
The candidates:
At 11, San Francisco has Frank Gore. At 12, Buffalo needs an RB, but needs a CB or LB more. At 13, the Rams have Steven Jackson. At 14, the Panthers have DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster. At 15, Pittsburgh has Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport. At 16, the Packers need an RB (and this is where most every mock has Lynch going). At 17, Jacksonville has Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. At 18, the Bengals have Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. At 19, the Titans are said to need an RB but have 2006 second-rounder LenDale White.
At 20, the Giants have Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns. At 21, Denver has Travis Henry and Mike Bell. At 22, Dallas has Julius Jones (for now) and Marion Barber III. At 23, KC has LJ and Michael Bennett. At 24 (and 28), the Pats have Laurence Maroney. At 25, the Jets have Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. At 26, the Eagles have Brian Westbrook. At 27, the Saints have Reggie and Deuce. At 29, the Ravens have Willis McGahee. At 30, the Chargers have LT and Michael Turner (for now). At 31, the Bears have Cedric Benson. And at 32, the Colts have Joseph Addai.
(Deep breath ...)
So, assuming one of the other teams doesn’t use a first-round pick on a back-up running back, it’s up to Buffalo, Tennessee and Green Bay to make Lynch a first-rounder. And I don’t think there’s any way Buffalo jumps on Lynch at 12 with guys like Michigan CB Leon Hall, Mississippi LB Patrick Willis or even Miami TE Greg Olsen (Robert Royal anybody?) on the board.
And so the Bills pass. And the Rams pass. And the Panthers. And the Steelers.
Packers on the clock.
Green Bay’s RB depth chart right now is Vernand Morency and Noah Herron. They need a back, no doubt. Question is: Do they take one at 16?
It’s impossible to tell exactly who will be available by the time the Packers pick, but chances are that of the following players, at least half will still be on the board: Pittsburgh CB Darrelle Revis, Nebraska DE Adam Carriker, Florida S Reggie Nelson, Miami TE Greg Olsen, Penn State LB Paul Posluszny, Arkansas DE Jamal Anderson, LSU WR Dwayne Bowe and Ohio State WR Ted Ginn Jr.
Also consider the second tier of RBs (Auburn’s Kenny Irons, Ohio State’s Antonio Pittman, Nebraska’s Brandon Jackson, Louisville’s Michael Bush) should still be relatively intact when the Packers pick at No. 47.
And one more question: Can he be a lead back in Green Bay? He’s a California kid. What’s he know about frozen tundra?
And one more question: The Jeff Tedford Factor. His college stars haven't exactly set the NFL on fire. A few high draft picks who grew up under Tedford, either as a head coach or coordinator: Aaron Rodgers, Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, J.J. Arrington. Of course that list says absolutely nothing about Lynch as an individual football player, but NFL people are weird about stuff like that.
Packers, pass. Jaguars, pass. Bengals, pass. Titans on the clock.
As I mentioned, Tennessee already has LenDale White, so running back can’t be the top priority, especially when they just lost their top corner and punt returner to a year-long suspension. Plus, Lynch was accused of sexual assault just five months ago. Charges were never filed and it seems entirely plausible (probable, even) this was a false accusation with the intent to extort payment. But this is the NFL draft. In other words, reality is nice, but perception is the real name of the game. And when owner Bud Adams, burned so badly by overlooking the billowing red flags with Pacman, sees a guy with that kind of accusation, plus the braids and the mouth grille, he’s going to blink. It’s not fair to Lynch (dude’s got “Mama’s Boy” tattooed on his back, for Christ’s sake), but it is most definitely the NFL in 2007.
Titans, pass. And the free fall begins.
Nobody else needs a first-round running back. There are a glut of receivers who could all go between 20 and 30 (Ginn, Bowe, Tennessee’s Robert Meachum, USC’s Dwayne Jarrett, perhaps even South Carolina’s Sidney Rice, Ohio State’s Anthony Gonzalez or USC’s Steve Smith, though those last three all seem ticketed for the second round). There’s Florida DE Jarvis Moss. There’s the Texas DB tandem of Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin. There’s Jon Beason and Joe Staley and Lawrence Timmons.
Giants, pass. Broncos, pass. Cowboys, pass.
Chiefs, Patriots, Jets, Eagles, Saints.
Patriots again, Ravens, Chargers, Bears.
That’s three hours of heartache right there, three hours of frustration and tears, the foundation for a life-long grudge against 31 teams. People are going to pay for this.
One last shot at the first round: The Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning. Tony Dungy. Marvin Harrison. Rings.
The Colts have lost both their starting CBs (assuming they don't match the Saints' offer to Jason David), not to mention Cato June, Montae Reagor and Mike Doss. Their defense was pretty bad to begin with, but now? Eeeesh.
They can take UNLV CB Eric Wright (never mind the ecstasy). They can take Miami S Brandon Meriweather (never mind the head stomp). They can even take Utah S Eric Weddle (so what if he “below-average bulk” and only “adequate” speed?). But they have to go defense. They just have to.
And of course you know by now how I’m going to end this story.
With the 32nd and last pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Indianapolis Colts select ...
... Mama's Boy.
Seth Doria is a freelance writer and blogger in St. Louis. For more news and notes on sports and politics, plus the second annual Mock NFL Mock Draft Competition (on Thursday), please visit The Left Calf.
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