Sure, the NBA playoffs are exciting (maybe for the first month of them), but why watch Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, and Steve Nash when you could just as easily be thinking what spot your team will get in the NBA lottery?
The future is bright for some teams, grim for others, and unknown for most. The teams here are listed from worst to 14th-worst record wise, the projected order of this year's NBA draft in June. The NBA draft lottery will be held on May 22, so the order of this is subject to change on that day.
Memphis Grizzlies (22-60)
Though they barely edged out the Celtics in the "Who can tank in the least obvious way?" sweepstakes, the Grizzlies aren't really as bad as you think. Honestly. The team battled injuries to all-star center Pau Gasol (missed first 22 games), and first-round pick Kyle Lowry (played in only first 10 games), and also fought uncertainty with now former GM Jerry West. Most of their core is young with first-rounders Rudy Gay (2006) and Hakim Warrick (2005) playing significant minutes inside.
The real problem for Memphis is that they are very weak defensively. Drafting Greg Oden with the No. 1 pick (presumably) would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence, and the team has enough around him to allow his offensive game to develop without much pressure. (Honestly, though, does anyone actually want to see a prospect like Oden play in Memphis? Is there still time for David Stern to bump that age minimum rule up a year?) With a little luck and improvement from their young players, Memphis could battle for a lower playoff seed next year.
Boston Celtics (24-58)
The Celtics show shades of the New York Knicks from two seasons ago. The only difference being they didn't have Isiah Thomas to brilliantly trade away the No. 2 pick in the draft to Chicago. They have an extremely young core built around all-star Paul Pierce, who turns 30 next season. Al Jefferson was one of the most improved players in the league this year, but he is not the inside defensive presence they need. Wally Szczerbiak and Pierce were hurt almost the entire second half of the season, so the team relied solely on young players to carry the load.
While Kevin Durant is a great talent and will be a star, the Celtics would much rather have Oden for defensive purposes. Combining Oden with Jefferson would give them a great offense-defense combo inside. They are talented, but young at the one, two, and three (though they could have had Brandon Roy instead of trading for bust Sebastian Telfair ... maybe Ainge isn't so different from Thomas after all) with players like Rajon Rondo, Allan Ray, Gerald Green, and Delonte West all playing significant minutes. The improvement of the young players, especially Jefferson, added to a healthy (maybe) Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak and a top-three draft pick could get this team to the middle of the Eastern Conference by next year.
Milwaukee Bucks (28-54)
Quick. Name three players on the Milwaukee Bucks. Michael Redd, obviously ... um ... Andrew Bogut ... and ... uh ...Charlie Villanueva. Wow, tough. How this team finished with a better record than the Celtics or Grizzlies baffles me. Redd is an all-star and Bogut and Villanueva are young and improved, but the two other starters for the Bucks are Bobby Simmons and Maurice Williams (who?). This team could use Oden or Durant (who couldn't?), but luck of the draw may prevent that. Al Horford, Joakim Noah, or Brandan Wright would bring the Bucks another superstar to match with the three aforementioned players, but don't bet on the Bucks anytime soon.
Atlanta Hawks (30-52)
The Hawks are loaded with top-five-pick potential (that's your prize for sucking the last five years), but no player (Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Shelden Williams, Salim Stoudamire ... you get the point) can consistently be counted on. Like the Cleveland Browns at quarterback or the Tampa Bay Devil Rays at every position, the Atlanta Hawks have needed a point guard for years and just can't find the answer (passing on Chris Paul in '05 didn't help). Joe Johnson played well this year, but drafting Mike Conley, Jr. would go a long way in helping the team's young players develop.
The Hawks will be watching very closely come lottery day. If their pick lands outside the top three, it goes to Phoenix, but they get the Pacers' pick if it is outside the top 10. Either way, Atlanta likely will be able to land Conley at one of those spots, but the Hawks could end up with two lottery picks or zero depending on the draw.
Seattle Supersonics (31-51)
The team of "project" centers. The Sonics picked Robert Swift, Johan Petro, and Mouhamed Sene in three straight drafts, and none of them are currently playing significant minutes (Swift missed the whole season to injury). Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis can fill it up, but their contracts are huge and Lewis will probably opt out and sign elsewhere. The team has plenty of holes to fill in the draft and could trade down for more talent or picks. Corey Brewer would be a reach at their projected spot, but would add depth behind Allen, and they should avoid taking Brandan Wright, Julian Wright, or Joakim Noah as their front line is already stuffed with young players. Look for the Sonics in the low lottery again next year.
Portland Trail Blazers (32-50)
The Blazers are on the brink of rebuilding, and Brandon Roy has become a huge part of that. The probable Rookie of the Year is a great fit for Portland as he can do everything well at both ends of the floor (plus, the trade for him rid them of Sebastian Telfair). Top pick LaMarcus Aldridge played much better down the stretch and showed promise inside with Zach Randolph. Portland has role players Freddy Jones and Jarret Jack to fill in the gaps, but they are thin after the starters. Adding Brandan Wright or Julian Wright in their spot gives them depth inside and could push them into a higher spot in the Western Conference next year with the improvement of Aldridge and Roy.
Minnesota Timberwolves (32-50)
The Timberwolves are in the surprising situation of having a bad team with many veterans. Most teams on the list so far are comprised of young, undeveloped talent (the T-Wolves have some of that in Craig Smith and Rashad McCants), but the Wolves tried to win with mid-level veterans around K.G. and it didn't work. The future around Kevin Garnett is very cloudy (as we find out every trade deadline) and where the team goes will be determined by him.
If he leaves, Minnesota will have to suffer three or four top-five lottery years before another chance to compete (see: post-Jordan Bulls). If he stays, they may be in worse shape as they have limited financial flexibility and many aging players. Adding the Wright forward that isn't taken by Portland would give K.G. another potential star to work with, but don't put Minnesota near the playoffs anytime soon.
Charlotte Bobcats (33-49)
The Bobcats are building the right way by getting high-pedigree college stars (Sean May, Emeka Okafor, Adam Morrison, Raymond Felton), and are showing some slow improvement. Adding Corey Brewer to an already talented team would fill a need for the Bobcats and also add another national championship winner to their roster. Morrison was a semi-bust in his first season, but still has some potential. The Bobcats will be entering their fourth year in the league, and the future looks promising.
New York Knicks (33-49)
The Chicago Bulls get the Knicks' lottery pick ... again. And Isiah Thomas got a contract extension. Enough said. (The Bulls will probably take either Roy Hibbert or Spencer Hawes to give them an offensive inside presence.)
Sacramento Kings (33-49)
The Kings have an uncertain future in Ron Artest, but a solid group of core players. They, much like the Timberwolves, have limited financial flexibility and a lot of veterans. Players like Brad Miller, Mike Bibby, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim represent much of their payroll, but all are on the decline. 24-year-old Kevin Martin had a breakout year and could win Most Improved Player, but he seems to be the lone bright spot. The Kings made eight straight playoffs beginning in 1998-99, but the team is on the decline now. Adding a young big man to team with Brad Miller is the likely pick, probably the one that Chicago doesn't take.
Indiana Pacers (35-47)
The deadline deal that brought Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy, and Ike Diogu to the Pacers was the right move for Indiana. Although they were 20-18 at the time and played their way under .500 after that, they simply need time to fit the pieces together (plus, they rid themselves of troublemaker Stephen Jackson). The healthy return of Marquis Daniels and the improved chemistry between all the new players will help this team fight for an seven- or eight-seed in a weak East next year. They don't, however, get their lottery pick if it is outside the top 10 (it goes to Atlanta as previously mentioned), so that will prevent them from adding a major piece.
Philadelphia 76ers (35-47)
The Allen Iverson trade was, essentially, the only big deal of the year, and it worked for both sides. The Nuggets just beat the Spurs in Game 1 on 30 points from A.I., and Philadelphia showed promise by the end of the year without him. High-flying Andre Iguodala blossomed after Iverson left and seemed close to a triple-double nightly. Kyle Korver can shoot the lights out and the addition of veteran point guard Andre Miller from Denver took some pressure off the young players. They are weak inside with aging Samuel Dalembert playing the most significant minutes, but this team could be in the playoffs as early as next year with the addition of a young guard like Texas A&M's Acie Law.
New Orleans Hornets (39-43)
The fact that this team finished this close to .500 while in the same division as Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston is incredible. They suffered a lot from the injury to Peja Stojakovic, who played the first 13 games (the Hornets were 8-5), then went down for the season with a back problem. Chris Paul is a top point guard and the trade for Tyson Chandler was brilliant as he finished second in the NBA rebounding behind Kevin Garnett.
This team has a lot of potential, and the growth of Paul, Chandler (who is still only 24), and David West leaves this team with a promising future. They need help at shooting guard and the three spot, so look for them to take Georgetown forward Jeff Green. Green is a lockdown defender and is very versatile offensively, and he would be aided greatly by a point guard like Paul feeding him.
Los Angeles Clippers (40-42)
The Clippers had high hopes for 2006-07. They came within one win of knocking off the Suns and advancing to the Western Conference finals last year, and they spent a lot of money to keep Chris Kaman, Sam Cassell, and they added Tim Thomas. They started hot, but struggled to find rhythm as the season progressed. The team has the talent to win now with proven players Elton Brand, Corey Magette, and Cuttino Mobley, and youngsters Shaun Livingston, Daniel Ewing, and Paul Davis.
Adding high-flyer Chase Budinger from Arizona or the aforementioned Green would add another talented piece to the Clippers, but Sam Cassell is already 37 and there are questions surrounding Shaun Livingston's return from a horrific knee injury. The team's status next year will depend on getting all their talent on the same page and working together. Look for them in the bottom half of the Western playoffs next season.
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