No one can accurately peg the top 25 football teams in the country right now. Too many things can break too many ways. But one thing is clear — there is a first-tier of teams head, shoulders, and maybe knees above the rest, and will enter the season more loaded than Courtney Love.
Some teams just stockpile the talent and discard pieces that don't work out without fretting over where to find a replacement; others catch lightning in a bottle. The former are generally a lot easier tot identify.
Just take a look at last year's preseason top 25. No one in either poll started in the top five (seven different teams) and finished lower than 10, except chronically overrated Notre Dame.
Forecasting the rest of the pack? Like nailing Jell-O to a wall. Florida State, Miami, Iowa, and Clemson all were slotted between 10 and 20. None even finished in the also-receiving-votes shuffle. And raise your hands if you saw Arkansas, Rutgers, Wake Forest, and BYU replacing them. I thought not. Now put your top 25 away before you embarrass yourself. Top five? Now maybe you will get lucky.
So in no particular order, here are the five teams that, if not BCS title game bound, should have very strong seasons. Also presented are the biggest stumbling blocks en route to New Orleans.
And if you think you have the five teams pegged, guess again. There is a team you probably didn't think of...
USC Trojans
By "in no particular order," I meant after USC. Show me an expert that considers any team more loaded than USC. Seriously, I need a job, and would gladly take his. Last year's stingy defense loses linebacker Dallas Sartz and ... well, that's it. The offense shouldn't need to score a lot of points for USC. But it will.
Last year, John David Booty put up comparable stats to Matt Leinart's first year as a starter, and should only improve. A stable of running backs will be competing for carries. I can't begin to name them all; four have starting experience, and three others were among the top five recruits in the country the last two years. And the crew waiting to replace departed receivers Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett is also deep and talented. Three offensive line starters return, and, you guessed it, many able-bodied individuals are waiting in the wings.
The Trojans, now a veteran squad, experienced two unexpected Pac-10 losses last year: to an underrated Oregon State team that won 10 games, and to UCLA. That should provide plenty of motivation. USC will have a tougher road schedule this year. Lincoln, South Bend, Berkley, and Eugene aren't anyone's favorite destinations. But if the Trojans get their legs under them for the hostile environment in Nebraska and survive new quarterback/ASU transfer Sam Keller, then Notre Dame, Cal, and Oregon should be very beatable teams. At least for the most talented team in the country.
Texas Longhorns
Colt McCoy quietly broke the Longhorn record for touchdown passes in a season. There is a tiny bit of a historical dead spot between Chris Simms and Bobby Layne in terms of quality Texas quarterbacks, but we are still talking about a lot of history. The kid really found himself in the second half, and if not for an early injury in a 45-42 upset by Kansas State, followed by a 12-7 loss to rival Texas A&M, they could have argued for a slot in the title game.
Now McCoy returns a year wiser and with an arsenal of weapons, including running back Jamaal Charles and receivers Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman. That said, this team does lose a lot of offensive line and defensive talent to the draft. But Texas is as plentiful in talent as Florida and California, and UT is still the big dog on the block.
And let's not forget the conference they play in. There are no road challenges except for the visit to A&M in College Station. The Red River Shootout should be competitive, and Nebraska does visit, but other than that, no one should scare the Longhorns on paper.
Florida Gators
Urban Meyer has wiped the floor with SEC recruiting and only USC can be considered to be in the same league over the last few years. Normally, losing a quarterback and nine defenders would cripple a team. But this crew can reload, and with phenom Tim Tebow at the helm and electric Percy Harvin receiving an expanded role, the offense should be as dangerous as any in the conference. The defense loses a slew of starters, and the secondary especially is depleted, but that is the easiest position to hide in the run-happy SEC.
The schedule is certainly not a major issue this year. Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida State all travel to Gainesville, while the only true road test will be a visit to Baton Rouge to play LSU (although being hosted by the Ol' Ball Coach in South Carolina should make for a fun trip). If the defensive replacements can stack up as comparable to the rest of the SEC, the defending national champs have as good a shot as anyone to reach the Superdome. But a defensive letdown in a game where Tebow's inexperience shows up could, and likely will, be the Gators' undoing in the national title hunt.
LSU Tigers
Here we go again with a team bringing in a new quarterback. But Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux are both capable of filling in for JaMarcus Russell. Flynn is expected to take the job, but Perrilloux was, if not No. 1, then No. 1A along with USC's Mark Sanchez as the top recruit in the country two years ago. Both leading rushers return, and while Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis depart at wideout, bullets remain in the chamber, and fast ones. Early Ducet is the most experienced, having hauled in 59 passes for 772 yards in 2006. Defensively LaRon Landry will be impossible to truly replace at safety, but enough talent returns that the Tiger defense will be feeling like it's usual, frisky self.
And while most teams in the SEC do not play much of a road schedule, LSU's is particularly gentle; few coaches fear visits to Mississippi State, Tulane, Kentucky, Alabama, or Ole Miss nowadays. An intriguing matchup with Virginia Tech will be one of the early season games to watch, but tilts with Auburn and Florida will make or break the season.
Wisconsin Badgers
What, you expected a Michigan team that lost its entire defense? The Badgers return a big part of a team that went 12-1 without so much as a whisper last year. Yes, the Big Ten was the softest it's ever been, and the Badgers' schedule sidestepped Ohio State. But they did beat a tough Arkansas team in the Citrus Bowl. P.J. Hill returns after a 1,500-yard season.
John Stucco is gone at quarterback; that sound you heard was a big yawn out of Madison. Not a bad player, but no one is crying over his departure. The team's three leading receivers are also back, so his heir will have experienced weapons. He will also have continuity at offensive coordinator, with Paul Chryst turning down a job with the Dallas Cowboys to stay in Madison. Oh, and by the way, a good share of a defense that allowed less than 12 points a game last season returns as well.
The Badgers not only get Ohio State back on the slate, but they get to visit Columbus. That's never fun, even when the Buckeyes are rebuilding a defense (which, under Jim Tressel, generally takes a nanosecond) and replacing a Heisman quarterback and two star receivers. Wisconsin also visits Penn State in Happy Valley and hosts Michigan at Camp Randall. The difficulty of the rest of their road will be determined by how fast the rest of the league grows up. Hell, with Indiana reaching up into the middle-regions of the standings in 2006, you know there has been a slide. Still, Wisconsin is a legitimately elite team, and could be a sleeper to end up in New Orleans.
Everyone Else
No other team lacks a major concern that could easily prevent it from being a top 10 team. Ohio State and Michigan lost too much to the draft, West Virginia still can't defend its little sister, much less an end zone, Arkansas isn't any more proven than Darren McFadden's durability, Auburn just feels to be a playmaker or three away, and Okahoma just ain't what it used to be. Any of these teams could crash the top five. They could also end up ranked 20-something. And the next tier depends on many things. Health. Emergence of young players. Avoidance of lapses in motivation. Luck. So many things can jumble that middle of the pack.
And that's what makes it all worth watching.
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