The Oakland Raiders will likely take JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn with the first overall draft pick in this year's 2007 NFL draft. Seven of the past 10 NFL drafts have had the top selection used on a quarterback.
Raiders owner Al Davis isn't one to follow conventional wisdom. Davis's history as a maverick will keep everyone guessing what he will do this time around.
The Raiders were a mess last year, finishing an abysmal 2-14. Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter shared quarterbacking duties and neither was impressive.
Georgia Tech wideout, Calvin Johnson, may well be the most talented athlete in the draft field this year. But Brooks and Walter couldn't get the ball to the ultra-talented (albeit moody and inconsistent) Randy Moss. Will adding quality at that position really help their situation?
There is no mistaking the Raiders need for a change at quarterback. Davis might address that need via trade or take his chances on picking up a later round signal caller. After all, Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick.
The Brady argument is tossed around ad nauseam. One of the league's best quarterbacks was selected in the sixth round, true enough. Never discussed though are all of the quarterbacks selected in the sixth round that haven't made it in the NFL, however.
The 10 NFL drafts from 1995 to 2004 were analyzed to shed a little light on the success of quarterbacks drafted in rounds one through six. The 2005 and 2006 drafts are left out of the discussion since those quarterbacks have not had time to really prove themselves.
What of the sixth round? Of the 22 quarterbacks selected during that round, three are present NFL starters. Brady, Marc Bulger, and Matt Hasselbeck were absolute bargains in the sixth round.
Wouldn't any team rather have Brady, Bulger, and Hasselbeck than the nine other quarterbacks selected ahead of them in rounds one through five of the 1998 and 2000 drafts? Of course, but that question doesn't fully consider the possibilities of drafting a dud.
86% of the quarterbacks drafted in the sixth round are not starting in the NFL. That's almost a nine in 10 chance of missing the target with a sixth-round quarterback selection. Most of those 86% are not even on current NFL rosters.
As would be expected, the odds improve significantly when analyzing the first round selections. Only 48% of those quarterbacks drafted in the first round are not their team's current starter. And, contrary to sixth-round selections, many of those first round non-starters are still contributing as backups on current NFL rosters.
The percentage of non-starters drafted by round is as follows:
48% First Round
89% Second Round
92% Third Round
94% Fourth Round
100% Fifth Round
86% Sixth Round
Maybe more should be written about the fifth round curse: 11 draftees, zero starters, but I'll move on.
The first and sixth rounds are where most of the quarterbacks are taken in the first six rounds — almost 50%. Those selections are split almost evenly between the first and sixth round, but the first round has produced 12 current starters compared to three produced by the sixth.
All but one of the 10 years analyzed had at least one quarterback taken in the sixth round. However, only two of those years produced current NFL starters. Every year, teams are willing to take a chance on a diamond in the rough. Most years, those teams come up empty handed in the end.
As shown above, drafting a first round quarterback is no guarantee. Fear of wasting a top-round pick on the next Ryan Leaf has to be nearly crippling to those making the critical decisions. First-round quarterback selections are about a 50/50 proposition — not bad given what is at stake.
Davis has to be doing a slow burn over the recent decline of his team. "Just win, baby" only came to fruition twice all of last season. The bottom line is that most championship teams have a talented quarterback at the helm. The Oakland Raiders do not currently have that critical cog.
Will Davis find an upgrade at quarterback through this year's draft? If he does, will he fly in the face of conventional wisdom and try to find the next Tom Brady or will he take the 50/50 with a first-round selection? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'm thinking Davis will use a little common sense and take JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn.
Todd Beckstead is founder of MonsterDraft.com, a tool to help you with your fantasy football drafts.
April 6, 2007
Undertaker:
As far as i’m concerned this pretty much falls into all of the same stuff we’ve been fed for the past 3 months, but what gets lost in all of this is that just like Jerry Porter recently said: “One player will not help us.” so what makes me think that JaMarcus Russell will solve any problems. Better yet, what makes me or anyone think that it was the absolutely atrocious situation last year that made Andrew Walter look bad. Look at them side to side, AW and JR are nearly the same person besides obvious differences in looks.
The point is, if the Raider Nation wants a real fast impact then they’ll join the Draft Adrian Peterson movement. By ridding ourselves of perverbial dancer-in-the-backfield Lamont Jordan, we’ll get a dynamic running back with a work ethic and competitive streak that this team hasn’t seen since Rich Gannon. I guarentee .500 or above if we trade down and draft Adrian Peterson.
April 7, 2007
Tampa Raider:
The Raiders got their main man they needed when they hired Kiffin. The Raider players are as good or better than any team in the NFL. HOF Art Shell’s coaching and coaches were the problem. Love Art, but that 1970’s style of offense will not work against the bull rush defensive schemes of today. Only greenhorns and Raider haters think our team is a mess. GO RAIDERS !!!!
April 7, 2007
FANG:
RAIDERS are NOT drafting that DUMB SPEARCHUCKER jamuccus russell !!! ~FANG the RAIDERKING LIVES!
April 7, 2007
march madness:
It’s a shame your parents didn’t raise you better than that, FANG. Losers in life like you aren’t true fans of anything but hate and evil.
April 7, 2007
Born Silver and Black:
First, dump Moss to the highest bidder. He is a team cancer. Draft Calvin Jonhson 1st round. He will help the team immediately. Andrew Walter has good character and I believe will be a great quaterback. Don’t give up on him. Forget about his stats behind last years line. He showed fire (even called out his crappy offensive playbook), showed some good leadership qualities and actually looked like he hated to lose. This was in his first year starting. I want that in a Raider quaterback. I think Lane’s offense will suit him well provided the line improves and we have better running. Pick up a verteran free agent QB (or trade for one … Josh McCown would be nice) and draft a QB later in the draft (no matter what round). Draft heavy on both sides of the line (heavier on O) and maybe get a catching/blocking TE. I’m looking foward to the next couple of years Raider Nation, they are going to be fun.
April 7, 2007
Rick:
When the QB takes a 3 step drop and he has 3 guys from the defense on him immediately that is not the QB’s fault. I might add the OC had the WR’s running 30/40 yd routes at the same time. Toss Moss for a vet QB (McCowan) and maybe a 2nd round choice. Take Calvin and use the 2nd round (two choices) for OL
April 7, 2007
ALDavisisGod:
Fang is No Raiders Fan, and he is not even a racist, just a stoopid Broncos fan trying to make RaiderNation look bad.
April 7, 2007
Puff:
“And with the first selection in the 2007 draft the Oakland Raiders select… Adrian Peterson, Okalahoma University”.
April 8, 2007
Philippian:
Personally i think coach Lane Kiffin is a
Great coach in college with USC.
I hope he get’s the RAIDERS back to
winning a Super Bowl!!! I’m glad that
he will be calling the play’s from the
sidelines.
April 8, 2007
jj:
As long as Sims,Gallery, and Grove start we will have a problem. If the Raiders do not make any effort to improve the quality of the starting offensive lineman it will be a long season. They system they run will not make a great difference with our starters. Changes have to start on the offensive line. The money paid Sims and one legged Jordan is crazy. The Raiders have a lot of holes to fill, and hopefully they can do it, but it all starts up front.