With just hours until the completion of the 2006-2007 NCAA men's college basketball season, now seems like a good time to issue some awards and make a few predictions for next year.
Biggest leap from obscurity to national prominence: Washington State
For those who aren't fans of the Pac-10 conference, perhaps you might overlook the magnitude of what happened in Pullman this year. To put it in perspective, in the five years preceding this season's 26-8 record (13-5 in conference), the Cougars had combined to go 49-90 overall and 21-69 in the Pac-10 (finishing seventh twice and 10th/last three times).
And despite being picked last again in this year's pre-season coaches poll, they made the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1994 and got their first tournament win since 1983. And almost all of that can be traced to the coaching of Pac-10 and AP Coach of the Year Tony Bennett, who combined his dad Dick's defensive mindset, but added a more modern offensive approach that took them to the next level.
What's better for Bennett is that everybody except Ivory Clark is coming back next year. The best may be yet to come.
Biggest fall from grace: LSU
It's a tough call between LSU and Washington. Give the nod to the Tigers based off their higher preseason ranking (seventh in the ESPN/USA Today, Huskies were 16th), plus the fact they made the Final Four the previous season. Perhaps the preseason expectations were a bit high (always a contributing factor in "disappointing" seasons), but nobody thought this was a 5-11 team in the mediocre SEC West.
Glen Davis is going pro, but that doesn't necessarily mean another mediocre season is in store for next season. Dallas forward Anthony Randolph (five stars from Rivals) joins next year's squad along with returning juniors-to-be Tasmin Mitchell, Terry Martin, Garrett Temple, and Magnum Rolle. John Brady is taking major heat from Tigers fans, but he showed last year what he's capable of doing (that team overachieved as much as this one underachieved). I'd put money on a return to prominence next season.
Most over-hyped story line: The "mid-major" factor
At the risk of sparking another deluge of in-box negativity, the "mid-major" surge from 2005-06 fell flat this season. The best of the non-BCS conferences still produced their share of top-flight squads (Southern Illinois, Butler, Memphis) and produced several tournament upsets (UNLV over Wisconsin, Winthrop over Notre Dame, VCU over Duke), but only four of the Sweet 16 teams came from non-BCS conferences (SIU, Butler, UNLV, and Memphis).
The Elite Eight was made up of one team each from Conference USA, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big East, and SEC, and two from the Pac-10. The Final Four was Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Pac-10. The final is Big Ten/SEC. Hell, even the NIT Elite Eight featured seven teams from BCS schools.
So while giving all due respect to "mid-major" talent and quality of play (I still say some of the best games I watched all year were between the top teams in the Colonial), the BCS conferences showed the "major" vs. "mid-major" debate is not just a fabrication of evil-minded biased media. There's a real difference on the court, as well.
Biggest impact by a freshman: Tie: Kevin Durant and Greg Oden
No big surprise here, and the only reason I mention it is because you can't write a column on this season without mentioning Durant and Oden. There have been plenty of freshmen to have a major impact on the national stage, but that number had been greatly reduced by the trend of the best high school players turning pro. With the new NBA age limit and the arrival of Durant and Oden at Texas and Ohio State, respectively, we got to see what it would have been like if Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett had stepped foot on campus.
And we can look forward to hopefully similar impacts next year from guys who almost surely would have turned pro this summer: OJ Mayo (USC), Michael Beasley (Kansas State), Eric Gordon (Indiana), Kevin Love (UCLA), and Derrick Rose (Memphis).
Best decision made by an AD: Southern Illinois extending Chris Lowery
SIU AD Mario Moccia extended head coach Chris Lowery for seven years at $750,000 per year, tripling his salary and ensuring the Missouri Valley Coach of the Year doesn't bolt for a BCS school (Arkansas, Iowa) with deeper pockets. The signing continues the Valley's move toward "major" territory by investing in top coaches who cannot only build programs, but stick around to lead them. (Though news today that Creighton's Dana Altman is jumping to Arkansas obviously hurts that trend.) Regardless, Lowery is one of the best coaches in the country and SIU's move to sign him long term is a sign the program can be expected to continue its success, perhaps even breaking the Elite Eight/Final Four barrier.
Now a few things to look out for 2007-08
Team most likely to rebound back into a national power: Connecticut
Top freshman nobody's talking about: Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona
Next non-BCS coach to make the jump: Bruiser Flint, Drexel
Team most likely to go from mediocre to Sweet 16 (or further): Oklahoma
Next Kentucky coach: Travis Ford (Massachusetts) (at least that's who I think they should hire)
Who wins tonight: Florida
Seth Doria is a freelance columnist and blogger in St. Louis. For more, visit The Left Calf.
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