With all of the words spit out on sports radio, 'SportsCenter" and sports pages across the nation this week, it's pretty damn hard to come up with something new to write on this weekend's Final Four. It's like trying to ask an original question at the Super Bowl media day, or find a meth addict who can really quit whenever he wants to.
In summary: two ones, two twos. A bunch of future NBA players. Four really good coaches. History. Patrick Ewing. Billy Packer sucks.
There you go. Now what?
Well, for one, there are two major lessons to take away from this year's bracket. Learn them and store them away for next year.
First, this tournament has been a re-affirmation of the 2x2 Theory, which dictates the teams most likely to advance will be those that excel on offense and defense inside and on the perimeter.
It sounds simple, but how many of us had these four still alive? Ten percent? Fifteen? Twenty? Of the 61 teams not in the Final Four, is there anybody superior to Georgetown, Ohio State, UCLA, and Florida from a 2x2 perspective? Kansas maybe, but nobody else combines excellence inside and outside on offense and defense than these four.
The second lesson is that coaching still matters, but not as much as everybody likes to say. Really, it's just people who want to dog on coaches they are already pre-disposed to hate: Roy Williams, Bill Self, Rick Barnes, etc.
For instance, would John Thompson III be a worse coach if Jeff Green doesn't hit that shot against Vanderbilt? (Or if they had called a travel, which they shouldn't have because to call the travel they would have had to call the foul that forced the travel. The defender hip-checked Green, forcing the pivot foot up. Watch the replay.)
On the other hand, would everybody who hates Williams be admitting the error of their ways if Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green hadn't combined to shoot 2-for-14 from three against the Hoyas?
The answer to both questions is, of course, no. If the Hoyas had lost, it would have been, "Hey, not bad for a guy that young." And if the Tar Heels had won, it would have been, "Whatever. He should win with all that talent."
So come next year, pay attention to the 2x2 Theory, and don't bother over-analyzing the coaching reputations, since that's really all most of us are going on. (More than any other sport, it's nearly impossible in basketball to tell how much of a loss belongs to the strategy vs. the players getting their asses handed to them. This isn't the NFL.)
With those lessons in hand, we turn to those teams still alive and living the dream.
Florida
The Gators have now played three games in a row where they allowed an inferior opponent to hang around until the end. Purdue was up seven in the first half and within two at the 3:30 mark. Butler was up nine and tied with 2:34 to go. Florida was more in control against Oregon, but didn't make a field goal in the last 8:14 and missed seven free throws in the last two minutes to let the Ducks get within four. They play with a "we can turn it on when we need to" arrogance, one of the main pitfalls for teams trying to repeat. They say they're hungry, but they don't play that way from the tip.
What's worse is that Joakim Noah is turning into one of those "nobody believes in us" guys. I swear I never disliked the guy until he kept yapping about how people disliked him. At this point, he's in full Kellen Winslow, Jr. mode. If he starts yelling "Keep hating! I'm a mutha ------ soldia!" I won't be surprised.
(And before you start thinking I'm anti-Gator, let me say I really like Billy Donovan — I'm from Providence, so I have to — and Al Horford is one of my favorite players in the country.)
UCLA
UCLA beat Kansas for two reasons: first, Aaron Afflalo broke out of a shooting slump against Indiana and Pittsburgh (5-for-22, 1-of-8 from 3) to go 10-for-15 against the Jayhawks. During a seven-minute stretch of the second half, Afflalo scored nine straight Bruin points, preventing Kansas from getting the UCLA lead under six and eventually leading to the free-throw parade that gave them the double-digit win. If Afflalo doesn't turn it around, Kansas pulls a Florida and comes back to win.
Second, UCLA was tougher. Whether by circumstance or coach Ben Howland's design, Lorenzo Mata played an 11-game low in minutes (18), and Alfred Aboya played a 10-game high (25). Aboya had a huge impact defensively. Also, don't discount the contributions of Josh Shipp, somewhat of a forgotten man on this team. He only scored 9 points on 2-of-7 shooting (both makes were threes, plus 3-of-4 FT), but his 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals were critical to the win.
Ohio State
What makes this Buckeyes team so scary is that they seem to be still getting better. Greg Oden is becoming more assertive. Ron Lewis is playing the best ball of his career (not only with the threes, but he's also 21-for-21 from the FT line). Mike Conley keeps making clutch play after clutch play, and David Lighty has come out of nowhere to be a significant contributor. Add to that steady contributions from Jamar Butler, Othello Hunter, Ivan Harris, and Matt Terwilliger, and ... wow. That's a scary team.
Georgetown
First, a disclosure: I picked the Hoyas to win it all, and I win my pool if they do. I am in no way objective or impartial.
Now, with that said, the Hoyas are the best example of the 2x2 Theory. With Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp at guard, Jeff Green and Patrick Ewing, Jr. as swing forwards, DaJuan Summers at the four, and Roy Hibbert at the five, the Hoyas are perfectly constituted to disrupt an opposing half-court offense (see previously quoted shooting stats for North Carolina). Having Hibbert on the inside (6 blocks against the Heels) allows the perimeter defense to stretch out to cover the three, and they have the size, athleticism, and toughness to fight through screens.
On offense, Green can create his own shot, Ewing and Wallace both shoot over 45% from three, and Hibbert is a vacuum on the glass. There's no place for a defense to cheat. Thad Matta has a significant chore.
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I've already said I'm taking Georgetown, if for no other reason than I think they're tougher physically. Also, though Oden, Conley, Lighty, and Daequan Cook have shown themselves well capable of handling the big stage, they're freshmen in the Final Four. The game has changed, but when all else is equal, go experience over youth.
(One note: how the officials call this game will have a monumental impact. No matter who wins or loses, I just pray the story on Sunday morning isn't poor officiating that ruined what should be an all-time classic.)
As for the Florida/UCLA game, take your pick. As much as I look at the rosters and stats, break down the coaching philosophies (it might not be everything, but it can certainly be a tie-breaker), momentum, and other intangibles, I still can't come up with a compelling reason to pick either team. Hell, I can't even come up with a gut feeling. It comes down to Florida's mental state. If they come out soft, UCLA has the gonads to take advantage. If they come out full force, they have the talent to run away with it. Without any compelling evidence to the contrary, go superior overall talent. Then again, that didn't exactly work out for Kansas, did it?
One thing is for sure. There are 120 minutes of college ball left this season (maybe 125 or 130 if we're really lucky). And they are going to be awesome.
Seth Doria is freelance writer and blogger in St. Louis. For daily updates on sports, politics, and the general state of affairs in the world, please visit The Left Calf.
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