NCAA Tournament Preview

At the risk of repeating everything you've heard over the past 24 hours, 20 thoughts on the 2007 NCAA tournament bracket:

20. Of all the arguments I looked at making in the debate over who's in and who's out, I really didn't find any overwhelming evidence for any of them. You can say Kansas State did this or Drexel did that, but in the subjective analysis of the committee, it wasn't enough. Any argument to the contrary is also a subject analysis. When comparing subjective analyses, I'll side with the professionals, even though I thought Kansas State and Syracuse deserved bids over Illinois and Stanford.

It all comes down to these words of wisdom from K-State head coach Bob Huggins, "If we had won more games, we wouldn't have had to worry about any of this."

19. I thought Nevada got hosed with a seven-seed. They should have been a five at least. Same for UNLV. One injury note, Nevada's best on-ball defender, Kyle Shiloh, is expected back for Friday's game against Nate Funk and Creighton. He missed their Semi loss to Utah State after straining a hammy on one of those stupid decals they put on courts for big games.

18. Of the 12-5 games, I like Old Dominion in an upset over Butler, which slid toward the end of the season (4-4 in their last eight). Watch out also for Long Beach State against Tennessee. Amazingly, the 49ers' top seven scorers are all seniors (contrasted to the Vols relying heavily on three freshmen). If Chris Lofton throws up a 5-for-14 like he did in the first round against Winthrop last year, Tennessee could be in serious trouble.

17. An upset I wish I had the balls to pick, but probably won't because I don't: #14 Wright State over #3 Pittsburgh. It could happen.

16. I've seen some people talk of an Oral Roberts upset over Washington State, but I'm not buying it. ORU definitely has talent with Caleb Green and Ken Tutt, but they play undisciplined (bad shots, too many turnovers). Against a team like Wazzu, that's going to be fatal.

15. Man, I hope that Texas/North Carolina Sweet 16 game materializes. Two other possible Sweet 16 contests I would seriously consider losing my job to see in person: Memphis/Nevada and Kansas/Southern Illinois (this one especially — I can see the Salukis completely throwing the Jayhawks off their game).

14. Of the interesting positional battles, Louisville's David Padgett and Derrick Caracter against Stanford's Lopez twins should be fun to watch. Rick Pitino has given Caracter chance after chance after chance this year. It's time for the boy to quit effing around and start giving back.

Curtis Sumpter (Villanova) vs. Randolph Morris (Kentucky) will also be interesting. So will Drew Neitzel (Michigan State) vs. Dominic James (Marquette). Michigan State will have gotten a huge break if Marquette stopper (and Big East defensive player of the year) Jerel McNeal can't play because of a bad thumb. (It doesn't look good right now.)

13. I don't think #11 VCU beating #6 Duke would constitute an upset.

12. Bad draw for Gonzaga, landing D.J. White and Indiana in the first round. Unless Josh Heytvelt's "alleged" shrooms somehow disappear from the evidence lock-up, I think they're screwed.

11. I've been waiting all year to pick against Maryland in the first round, and it felt like Christmas seeing them get paired with Davidson, a quality team from the SoCon. Now I'm a little hesitant because Davidson's leading scorer, Stephen Curry (21.2 ppg, 41% from threes), is a freshman. That's usually not a good thing. Screw it. Davidson in the upset.

10. In the several hours of Selection Sunday coverage I watched between CBS and ESPN, I didn't catch a single mention of Missouri State (except for being on the list of teams who didn't make it). Not only did they not make the Dance again (I do feel bad for Blake Ahearn), they lost their "Mid-Major Who Got Screwed" title to Drexel. Just a bummer of a day for Bears fans.

9. Of any one or two seed, Georgetown has the easiest path to the Elite Eight.

8. Any one of the one seeds could go down to the winners of the 8-9 games. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but the possibility is there. (Of the four, I'd say Ohio State is the most vulnerable against the BYU/Xavier winner).

7. Niagara in the play-in game over Florida A&M on Tuesday.

6. Everybody is jumping on the Winthrop bandwagon. I'm not saying they can't beat Notre Dame, because they certainly can, but beware the overwhelmingly popular upset pick.

5. UNLV/Georgia Tech is a must-watch. Well, they all are, but this one in particular should be high-paced and exciting. Give the nod to the Rebs thanks to their experience and better ball handling.

4. Sweet 16: UNC, Texas, Washington State, Georgetown, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Nevada, Kansas, Southern Illinois, Pittsburgh, Indiana, Florida, Old Dominion, Oregon, UNLV.

3. Elite 8: UNC, Georgetown, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Indiana, Florida, Oregon

2. Final 4: Kansas, Florida, Georgetown, Texas A&M

1. Championship: Georgetown over Kansas in a classic featuring 274 close-ups of Patrick Ewing's nose.

Seth Doria is a communications specialist in St. Louis. He writes a blog called The Left Calf.