A look at last year's 10 selections shows some fair results. Grady Sizemore moved up on everybody's draft board as the season approached and proved a solid selection. Brandon Webb was absolutely outstanding and routinely available in the 10th round in many drafts; Chris Ray had 33 saves in his first season; Chris Capuano, Chris Young, and Matt Cain all pitched well enough to be useful picks; Matt Holliday was a monster in Colorado and will be a second-rounder this season; Chad Tracey and Mike Jacobs were respectable, if not outstanding; Khalil Greene whiffed.
The middle-to-late rounds are where you'll make your draft after the obvious picks are snaffled up, so here is this year's 10 speculative picks for making your draft.
Adrián González (1B, San Diego Padres)
Looking for the next big power-hitting first baseman? Well, look no further than the former first-overall pick by the Marlins in 2000.
González is coming off his first full season as a starter and he showed enough to suggest that there is a lot more to come from the big left hander. He ended the season with 24 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a promising OPS of .862.
González was always slated to be a good contact hitter from his time in the minors, but the question was whether he could develop his home run potential to merit a spot at a power position. He showed he has sufficient power and could be good for 30 home runs a season, even playing his home games in spacious Petco Park.
The worry with González is his tendency to strike out too often (113Ks in 2006), but that is offset by the fact that he started to show greater patience as the season wore on (34 of his 52 walks came after the ASB). The Padres' anaemic line-up in 2006 (13th in runs scored, 14th in slugging in NL) didn't help his RBI totals. If the Padres can get some more bodies on base (16 of his 24 home runs were solo shots), González should break 100 RBIs for 2007.
In fantasy terms, he's not yet joined the higher echelons of first basemen, but once Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Justin Morneau, and Mark Teixeira have gone, he's a solid option with as high an upside as Prince Fielder.
Julio Lugo (2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
Lugo (31, seven years in the majors) is already on his fourth team and has never scored 100 runs, hit more than 15 home runs, or batted in more than 75 in a season. Yet there is reason to believe that Lugo can finally deliver a big season. He'll be leading off in a hot lineup, he can take a walk, he's settled in a position, and he's shown he can steal a base, if Terry Francona allows him to.
His 2006 season was wasted — in Tampa, he was injured early and never got into his stride and he mostly rode the pine for the Dodgers.
Lugo threatened to break out in Tampa Bay, where he had a couple of decent seasons, but was stymied by a poor lineup and constant trade talk. He can go 100-20-85-30 and challenge .300.
Ty Wigginton (3B/2B, Tampa Bay)
Wigginton (29, five years in the majors) is one of those easily-forgotten journeymen/utility types that bounce around the league in anonymity. This could be his coming-out year.
Wigginton's first year in Tampa bodes well for his prospects of landing a long-standing gig in the majors. In 122 games, he clubbed a career high 24 home runs and 79 RBIs. With the Devil Rays looking to put a more competitive team out in 2007, he could well dwarf those numbers with 550 ABs. If he can reduce his strikeouts (97 in 2006) and keep his average over .280, fantasy owners will be happy to have grabbed him in a late round.
Aubrey Huff (3B/RF, Baltimore Orioles)
Huff (30) is a slightly more glamorous Wiggington, having had one big season in Tampa (2004) when he drove in 104 and slugged 29 homers.
He landed in Houston in 2006 and did absolutely nothing, but he has talent. Though he's a lefty, he can hit against them (.276 career average as opposed to .288 against right handers) and he can go deep (141 career homers in 3252 ABs). The O's are an improving team crying out for a big bat to complement Big Mig, Brian Roberts, and Nick Markakis. Huff should fit perfectly in Camden Yards and something around 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, and a .290 average isn't out of the question in 2007.
Erik Bedard (LHP, Baltimore Orioles)
There are a lot of things to like about the 2007 Orioles (promising young starting pitching, run scoring potential, and a revamped bullpen), but being stuck in the AL (B)East makes improvement in the "W" column difficult.
Having said that, there are useful fantasy players on the O's roster that can be picked up in the middle to late rounds. One of those is LHP Erik Bedard. Despite carrying a patched up rotation, Bedard put up solid numbers (15-11 in 33 starts with a 3.76 ERA). He earned himself a $3.4 million dollar one-year deal and look for him to build on that for a huge pay day in 2007.
Wisely, the Orioles have only gradually increased Bedard's workload in the last three years and he looks primed for a season of 180-190 Ks and an ERA of around 3.50, even in a tough division. His wins might suffer if the Orioles collapse, but that's the only quibble. Notably, he didn't get abused by either the Yankees or Red Sox in 2006, who batted .231 and .205 against him, which augurs well for his prospects.
Bedard could put up similar numbers to much-vaunted Japanese import Daisuke Matsuzaka, but will go much later in drafts. Don't leave it too late to grab him.
Daniel Cabrera (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)
With Erik Bedard and first-round flamethrower Adam Loewen, the Orioles have a useful looking core of young pitchers. Cabrera (25) is potentially the best of them all.
At first glance, his stats look dreadful. A career ERA of 4.75 and 280 walks in only 457 innings hardly inspires confidence. But behind the stats are some pointers to a potential star waiting to break out.
Cabrera (6-7, 260 lbs) can really dominate a game with his 100 mph fastball that has devilish movement and is next to impossible to hit. He can also completely lose the strike zone, as he did the 2006 season, which earned him a demotion to AAA ball.
After the ASB Cabrera kept the walks to a manageable level, never walking more than five in a game. That's still too many, but it's a big progression for a pitcher who walked 16 batters in his first six innings of the season.
He pitched two absolute gems in the tail end of the year — a five-hit nine-inning shutout against the Blue Jays and a magnificent complete-game one-hitter in Yankee Stadium to end the season. Cabrera came within two outs of no-hitter and demonstrated his huge upside in one of the most pressurized stadiums to pitch and against a murderers-row lineup.
Leo Mazzone has a big project in Cabrera, who can lose confidence rapidly and go into complete meltdown, but he is adept at coaxing the best out of talented pitchers. Cabrera is as talented as they come and is worth a late flyer on draft day, especially in keeper leagues.
Kelvim Escobar (RHP, Los Angeles Angels)
Escobar (30, 10 years in the majors) is one of those players who has never quite fulfilled his potential. He was a part-starter/part-closer in Toronto, where he won 58 games and saved 54 over seven years. The Angels offered him a fat contract and a starters job and he jumped ship in 2004, but hasn't been an unqualified success, having a losing record and an injury plagued 2005.
Despite the negativity, Escobar has his plus points. He has a mid-90s fastball, he doesn't allow excessive base runners (he's posted 1.29 and 1.28 WHIP in his two full seasons as an Angel) and his K/9 rate is almost 8. If he wants another big payday, he needs a full season on the mound and an ERA around 3.50 (something attainable in the AL West).
If Escobar can learn to pitch against Texas, he could really put up some useful numbers. The Rangers feasted on him in 2006 (.357 BA, 7.16 ERA) in four starts. That said, Escobar is a reliable pitcher who is good for seven innings most starts. He won't win you a fantasy league, but he's a useful third or fourth starter in mixed leagues.
John Patterson (RHP, Washington Nationals)
2006 was a washout for Patterson, but he's healthy for the new season and starts as the Nats' unquestioned "ace" — not that there's much competition for that title.
Patterson has huge question marks against his resume. Can he pitch 200 innings? Can he make 30 starts? Can he replicate or better his 2005 season? Is he really the pitcher Jim Bowden claimed "can win 15-20 games and an ERA title?"
Patterson (29) has one big season on his resume, 2005, where he pitched 198.1 innings and struck out 185 on his way to an ERA of 3.13. At one point in that season, he put together six-starts with an ERA of 1.02 and threw a complete game four-hit shutout (13Ks) against the Dodgers.
He also has a bunch of injuries on the same resume. Elbow surgery in 2000, two months on the DL in 2004 with a groin problem, and last year's forearm surgery which restricted him to just eight starts.
At 6-5 and 210 lbs, Patterson is built to be a power pitcher. He has a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a decent change-up. If he can stay healthy — and so far it is a big if — he has a shot at a sub-3.50 ERA, 200 Ks, and a WHIP around 1.20. In a poor team, the Ws will be hard to come by. He has a one-year contract at a "measly" $850,000, so expect him to be playing his butt off for the big payday in 2008 — and there's no greater motivation for an athlete to stay healthy than money.
Dave Bush (RHP, Milwaukee Brewers)
The Brew Crew are looking to make up 8½ games on the Cardinals to get in the hunt for the NL Central title and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they can do it. Their rotation looks stronger than the Cardinals', with Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Jeff Suppan, and Bush a solid quartet. On the downside, the bullpen is a big question mark, the team is over-reliant on Prince Fielder for power, and there's not a lot of depth on the bench, but they should be able to contend late into the season if Bill Hall, J.J. Hardy, Corey Koskie, and Richie Weeks stay healthy.
Dave Bush (27, three years in the majors) has received little attention languishing in small-market Milwaukee, but he has steadily progressed nicely over his three seasons in the majors. He hasn't been rushed, steadily increasing his workload from 97 IP, through 136 IP in 2005 to last year's 210 IP. He has the look of a solid workhorse that will consistently throw over 200 innings with 170 Ks. He has a decent fastball, good control, and doesn't walk that many, so his WHIP should hover around 1.20 or better.
Bush will make a nice third starter on any roster and is a solid mid-round pick, especially in comparison to injury risks like Scott Kazmir and A.J. Burnett, who will go much earlier.
Jose Valverde (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)
I confess to having a serious man-crush on Valverde last season, drafting him in virtually every league I was in. He'd shown enough in his first three seasons in the majors to suggest he was going to dominate hitters in the ninth and rack up save after save. Sadly — at least for me and Jose — it never materialized and he was a major bust.
Things started positively and by May 16th, he'd claimed 12 saves and sported a nice 2.20 ERA. Then it all fell apart and by July, Valverde was in the minors trying to recover his confidence and find the strike zone.
After the sheer collapse of late-May and June, the Dominican returned to the bigs in August and quickly got his act together, knocking 50 points off his ERA by seasons end and reclaiming the closers role. How long he lasts as the D-Backs' go-to guy in the ninth depends on whether his fragile psyche is intact after the nice run he put together at the end of 2006.
The big power arm and the high K totals (K/9 of 12.59 in 2006, better than Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, and K-Rod) are so alluring that I'll be back on the Valverde bandwagon come draft day.
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