Mid-Majors Vie to Bust Brackets

Had it not been for last year's BracketBuster festivities, George Mason's historic run to the 2006 Final Four almost certainly would not have been possible. The Patriots went 15-3 in the Colonial Athletic Association, but a disappointing loss to Hofstra in the conference tournament would have otherwise sealed their fate. But because of one crucial signature win, however, the selection committee felt Mason's resumé was strong enough to overcome two late-season setbacks to Hofstra.

That win came on BracketBuster weekend. Coach Jim Larranaga and company went into the hostile environment of Wichita, Kansas and stole a 70-67 victory from the Wichita State Shockers. The Patriots had that win — and pretty much that win only — to thank for hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. The rest, of course, is history.

Perhaps we don't have another George Mason on our hands this time around (those stories only come around once in a lifetime if we're lucky), but several teams at least used their BracketBuster games to put themselves in position to be the next Cinderella. Several other teams, meanwhile, arguably played their way out of a chance for mid-major glory.

So who helped themselves most in the latest edition of bracket-busting madness? At the same time, whose season was potentially derailed by a poor showing in the glare of the national spotlight? Let's sort out the chaos that was the 2007 BracketBuster weekend.

BIGGEST WINNERS

1. Bradley — The Braves, who pulled of two NCAA tournament stunners en route to last year's Sweet 16, positioned themselves to do the same this season with a huge road victory at Virginia Commonwealth. Bradley has not been able to find much consistency in 2006-2007, but the team has now won three straight and with two winnable games at home to close out the regular season, should be riding a five-game winning streak heading into the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.

Prior to BracketBuster weekend, it looked like the MVC tournament would be a must-win situation for Bradley's at-large hopes. The Braves had two quality home wins over Wichita State and Southern Illinois, but they had been mediocre at best on the road, only beating far inferior teams and losing to everyone else. So they were certainly underdogs on the road against the VCU Rams, who boasted a 22-5 overall record and still lead the Colonial Athletic Association with a 14-2 conference mark. Coach Jim Les could not have asked for a better BracketBuster matchup, as a visit to Virginia Commonwealth gave his team a chance to secure that missing signature road win.

The Braves did just that. After coming out slow and finding themselves down by as many as 11 points early in the first half, the Braves composed themselves and trailed by just one at the half. Bradley then used a 24-10 surge over 12 minutes of the second half to take a commanding 60-48 lead with less than seven minutes left in the game. It proved to be a deficit from which the Rams could not recover, and Bradley escaped Richmond with a crucial 73-64 victory.

Bradley's RPI has since surged to 30th in the nation (five games ago it was in the 50s) and the Braves have firmly established themselves as a bubble team.

2. Drexel — At 11-5 in the CAA, good for just fourth place, the Dragons are not doing enough damage in conference play to draw the attention of the NCAA selection committee. Coach Bruiser Flint needed a big performance in a BracketBuster matchup to do that. You can't ask for much tougher matchup than being sent to Omaha to face the Creighton Bluejays, but the Dragons had to be thankful for such an opportunity. While they had a nice early-season win at Villanova, another resumé-boosting victory was needed.

It looked like Creighton would put the game out of reach early, as Drexel played most of the first half without star big man Frank Elegar, who picked up two quick fouls. But the tables turned in the second half. Bluejays' center Anthony Tolliver got into serious foul trouble of his own, allowing Elegar to dominate the game on both ends of the floor. A 20-3 run midway through the second 20 minutes of play proved to be more than enough for the Dragons, who cruised through the final minutes to a 64-58 victory.

By no means does this give Drexel any room to breathe in terms of their NCAA tournament hopes, but it does put coach Flint and his boys on the bubble. Their RPI is holding steady in the mid-50s, and if the Dragons pick up a few late-season wins to stay in at-large contention, this win over a top-30 RPI team will be looked upon favorably by the committee. If the Dragons had lost, their only chance at Dancing would have been to win the CAA tournament.

3. Appalachian State — The Southern Conference is still in all likelihood a one-bid league, but if any team has a chance to sneak into the NCAA tournament as an at-large, it's the Mountaineers. Davidson, the defending SoCon Champion, is leading the conference with a 14-1 record and has one of nation's best freshmen in Stephen Curry, who is seizing national attention for both himself and the team. But the Wildcats did not pick up any impressive non-conference victories to accentuate their stellar conference showing. Appalachian, meanwhile, has two extremely impressive out-of-conference road wins over UVA and Vanderbilt that will surely curry favor with the tournament committee.

A home loss to Elon and a recent loss at Furman put a serious dent in App. State's at-large hopes, so the Mountaineers absolutely had to have a BracketBuster win over Wichita State just to put themselves anywhere close to the bubble. Thanks to an off-balanced floater by D.J. Thompson with five seconds left in the game, Appalachian prevailed 60-58 over the Shockers.

Their 55 RPI ranking keeps the Mountaineers in the NCAA hunt. If they win out and lose to Davidson (losing to any other team would seal an NIT fate) in the Southern Conference Championship Game, this win at Wichita will at least make the NCAA Selection Show worth watching.

BIGGEST LOSERS

1. Missouri State — The Bears missed a big-time opportunity to make an impression on the selection committee over the weekend. Not only did they get to play in the friendly confines of their own gym, but they also drew Winthrop, a perfect opponent because the Eagles are a team that is not unbeatable, but at the same time would look outstanding on Missouri State's list of victims.

Winthrop had none of that, however, as Gregg Marshall's squad went into Springfield and played almost flawless basketball on their way to an emphatic 77-66 victory.

The Bears must be disheartened by this one. Having already been swept by Missouri Valley foes Creighton and Southern Illinois, they had to feel blessed for getting yet another opportunity to post a victory over an elite mid-major team. With their travails this weekend, however, the Bears will either have to rely on a run through the MVC tournament or on their huge early-season triumph over Wisconsin being enough for an at-large bid.

That victory over the Badgers, which looked great at the time, looks absolutely outstanding right now. Still, a win over Winthrop would have all but ensured an NCAA tournament for Missouri State, so it's got to hurt that they didn't get the job done.

2. Virginia Commonwealth — With a 14-2 conference record and the lead in the formidable Colonial Athletic Association, the Rams looked to bolster an already-impressive resumé over the weekend. VCU received a solid matchup, too, in a home date with the Bradley Braves. As a Missouri Valley contender, the Braves had a nice RPI rating heading into the BracketBuster game, but at 9-7 in conference, had not exactly been on a recent tear. This was a great opportunity for VCU to hold serve at home against a strong opponent.

Commonwealth came out firing, but Bradley blew them Rams off their own court in the second half. The end result: a 74-63 loss that will do nothing for VCU's tournament hopes. Now the Rams will have to win the CAA tournament if they don't want their postseason fate to rest in the hands of Princeton AD Gary Walters and the rest of the NCAA tournament committee.

3. Old Dominion — ODU lost when the BracketBuster schedule was released. Sure the Monarchs took care of business in their game (barely), but they would have loved to play one of the top mid-major teams in order to boost their chances for an at-large bid. Instead, Old Dominion drew the Toledo Rockets, who currently stand at 101 in the RPI and are in line for nothing more than a 15-seed if they get the automatic bid out of the MAC. In fairness to the Rockets, they are an impressive 10-2 in the MAC and are running away with the West Division of the conference. Still, it would have behooved Old Dominion to be matched up with either an at-large contender such as Winthrop, or if the Monarchs really wanted to get ambitious, with an at-large shoe-in such as Butler or Southern Illinois.

The Colonial Athletic Association is enjoying a high conference ranking this year (currently No. 13 in the RPI) and has a pretty good chance of sending two teams to the Dance. Had ODU played and a defeated one of the elite mid-major ballclubs, the Monarchs would have taken a big step in staking a claim to the conference's potential at-large birth. A narrow 73-70 victory of Toledo is just not going to do much for the selection committee.

There were other winners and losers in 2007 BracketBuster-mania for sure, but the potential NCAA tournament lives of these six teams really hung in the balance over the weekend.

For example, Holy Cross and Oral Roberts probably dropped an NCAA seed (if they go on to win their respective conference tournaments) with losses, but they would not have been close to the bubble even with BracketBuster wins.

Southern Illinois, on the other hand, posted one of the proceedings' most impressive wins, defeating Butler (also an NCAA lock) 68-64 in a clash of mid-major titans. In the Salukis, however, we're dealing with a whole different beast. SIU had secured their presence in the field of 65 long before this showdown with the Bulldogs. All the win will do is potentially notch the Salukis a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament rather than a No. 4. Now that's no small difference, but it's not like SIU's season was on the line against Butler.

If the Salukis race all the way to the 2007 Final Four, it will be no kind of George Mason déjà vu. But if one of the three "biggest winners" mentioned above pulls of the feat, then lightning will officially have struck twice.