Free agency. It's two words that have been the Achilles heel of some NFL franchises (see: Washington Redskins) and the guiding light of others (see: New England Patriots). Where some organizations fail year after year to sign a competent free agent, others use it to keep their salary caps healthy and their rosters deep.
This year's free agent crop is deep enough to offer many teams relief in many areas. But who are the can't-miss prospects and who are the prospects you just can't count on?
Quarterback
Sure Thing — Matt Schuab (UFA, Atlanta Falcons) — Schuab won't spend another year behind franchise-quarterback Michael Vick and since many teams are in need of a field general with a great arm and even greater command of the field, this quarterback will be posting 3,000+ yards and 20+ touchdowns in a new jersey come this fall. Chicago is a strong possibility for Schuab to end up with as Jacksonville looms in the background with their quarterback trio of Byron Leftwich, David Garrard, and Quinn Gray.
Sure Miss — Tim Rattay (UFA, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — Rattay was traded out of San Francisco (which should tell you something) and played second-string to Chris Simms in Tampa (which should also tell you something). Sadly though, the quarterback crop is so light this year that someone will end up signing him to more years and dollars than he's worth.
Running Back
Sure Thing — Michael Turner (RFA, San Diego Chargers) — My hope for the football population in San Diego is that the Chargers make up for their mistake of firing Marty Schottenheimer and keep the 1-2 punch they have in LaDainian Tomlinson and Turner. If they don't, look for Turner to be playing (and racking up the yards and touchdowns) for another team. All but a handful of the teams in the league could use a back such as Turner.
Sure Miss — Ahman Green (UFA, Green Bay Packers) — It was just three years ago that Green was the talk of the NFL as he ran for nearly 2,000 yards and made the NFL Pro Bowl team easily, but injuries and limited playing time (not to mention constant fumbling issues) have limited what was at one time one of the greater potentials in the league. Sadly, Green will be serving as a backup in Green Bay as the Packers look to build their roster up for one more year before Brett Favre says goodbye to the game.
Wide Receiver
Sure Thing — Donte Stallworth (UFA, Philadelphia Eagles) — I'm 99 percent certain the Eagles will keep this speedy, reliable wide receiver. He missed four games last year because of injury, but in the 12 he played, he showed he had what it took to be a number-one talent in Philadelphia. If the Eagles make the mistake of not signing him, look for him to be one of the first free agents picked up this year.
Sure Miss — Patrick Crayton (RFA, Dallas Cowboys) — Crayton benefits from the talent that is around him. He has neither the physical build nor the speed to be a starter in the league and will continue to serve as a third-string slot-receiver unless a team is reckless enough to overlook all that and pay him like a starter (see: Washington Redskins).
Offensive Line
Sure Thing — Leonard Davis (UFA, Arizona Cardinals) — He isn't just a part of the Cardinals' offensive line, he is the Cardinals' offensive line. He is the reason Arizona's line isn't one of the worst in the league, but sadly, Arizona will probably not be able to keep him as they will probably have to look for a younger, less-expensive (and less-talented) replacement. This will be a huge step in the wrong direction for the Cardinals, but their woes are too many to have the luxury of a franchise-tackle such as Davis.
Sure Miss — Derrick Dockery (UFA, Washington Redskins) — This four-year veteran at guard is nothing special as he, along with the rest of the Redskins line, never gave Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, or Clinton Portis time enough to make completions or run for long gains. Dockery will re-sign with the Redskins with little (if any) interest from other teams.
Defensive Line
Sure Thing — Dwight Freeney (UFA, Indianapolis Colts) — With the way the Colts' cap is (and the fact that they just won a Super Bowl), there's no way they're going to be able to keep this highly-touted, highly-talented pass rusher without franchising him. If he's not franchised, he'll most likely be the first high-priced defensive end to sign with another team.
Sure Miss — Cory Redding (UFA, Detroit Lions) — The Lions played with a lot of effort this year, but still lacked execution on both sides of the ball as they took a step backwards into their 3-13 season last year. Redding will definitely re-sign with the Lions as they look to upgrade the more premium positions (quarterback, offensive line, running back) and keep the rest of their roster as low-priced as possible.
Linebacker
Sure Thing — Adalius Thomas (UFA, Baltimore Ravens) — Thomas stepped up in a big way as he emerged as one of the better linebackers in the league after fellow teammate Ray Lewis was limited because of nagging injuries and old age. Look for the Ravens to franchise Thomas and keep him no matter the cost. Their defense is their staple and anything that keeps that defense in check will be a high priority for the Ravens organization.
Sure Miss — Na'il Diggs (UFA, Carolina Panthers) — Diggs was given a chance to step up into the linebacker spot after Dan Morgan was injured, but registered just 60 tackles with no interceptions or sacks. He's going to be let go by the Panthers and end up making less for a team in 2007 than he has in a while.
Defensive Back
Sure Thing — Nate Clements (UFA, Buffalo Bills) — With two Pro Bowl selections under his belt and a reputation as one of the better cornerbacks in the league, look for Clements to test the market and find a new home in 2007 as Buffalo will not tender the franchise tag on him for another year.
Sure Miss — Ken Hamlin (UFA, Seattle Seahawks) — He's just not as reliable as you'd like in a safety. He puts up good numbers (96 tackles, 3 interceptions, and 2 sacks), but he's just not durable enough to play a major part in anyone's defensive game plan. If he can stay on the field for 16 games, he's a solid contributor. My only reservation is in the belief that he can't.
February 20, 2007
Fan:
Hamlin started all sixteen games last season. If he hadn’t have been hit in the head with a street sign, he would have started every game of his career (4 years).
February 21, 2007
Darryl:
You are an idiot and have no business commenting on football. Re: Derrick Dockery. If the Redskins O-Line was so bad, why did they do so well in rushing YPG and fewest sacks allowed? Have a clue before you try to sound informed.
February 21, 2007
Anthony Brancato:
A better choice for Sure Miss at wide receiver would have been Tennessee’s Drew Bennett, who will attract much more attention than he deserves to - and a lot more than Patrick Crayton will.
This is an extremely thin year at wide receiver in free agency - even thinner than last year, which was hardly a cornucopia in its own right.
And as for you being 99 per cent certain that the Eagles are going to keep Donte’ Stallworth - the prevailing view in the Philly media is that it’s 99 per cent certain they WON’T keep him.
February 21, 2007
Ryan:
Darryl, if the O-Line gave their quarterbacks and running backs so much time, then why are they 5-11? My opinion is that Dockery’s overrated.
How about this for uninformed: The Redskins ran the ball 33% of the time between the guards. That’s 31st in the league (just above Detroit’s 27%). Portis is a capable back and Betts is a between-the-tackles runner. Riddle me this, Darryl: Why did they only run it 1/3 of the time in Dockery’s zone if Dockery’s so good?
How about another stat, Darryl? Almost 90% of the Redskins runs were for less than 10 yards. That’s also at the bottom of the league with the likes of Cleveland and Detroit.
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Anthony, the reason I believe Stallworth is staying in Philadelphia is because I was reading a couple of Eagles articles this week, most notably, this:
http://philadelphia.comcastsportsnet.com/view_content_0p.asp?ID=45107
Stallworth saying he’d like to stay coupled with the fact that they have NO one else at receiver makes me think this is a high priority for this organization. He’ll be back.
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Fan, sorry about that. It’s midterms week and I completely mixed up players and names and stats. I had pages for three different safeties open and completely mixed everything up. My bad.
I meant to say CB David Macklin of the Arizona Cardinals. 34 tackles and 1 INT? At the RCB spot?
February 21, 2007
drew:
They are 5-11 because of their porous pass defense. Bottom line is the Redskins averaged 4.5 yards per carry offensively and most of those plays are counters and traps where Dockery is pulling to one side or the other. They may not have broken off big runs but they consistently got 4 or 5 yards per play, which is good by anyone’s standards. No one said Dockery is an all-pro lineman. But if you actually watch the games he was probably the most consistent player with regard to getting on and off his blocks. He’s a little bit slow and has trouble at times with moving in space, but he’s our best OL at taking defenders out on the line by taking their legs out. I’m curious as to where you got the stat that the redskins ran between the guards that little. For the most part it seemed like the ran up the middle with Betts and outside with Portis at the beginning of the year. If they didn’t run up the middle, they ran with their guards pulling, which still involves both Dockery and Thomas. And, like they all said, watch the games. The Redskins OL gave the QBs all the time in the world and that’s why they only allowed 19 sacks all year. I’m not trying to attack you like the other guys but being a sportswriter is more than pulling up stats and using them to back up your case because stats are inherently misleading. You have to watch all the games and judge the players yourself.
February 21, 2007
bruce:
The vast majority of Bucs fans and Coaches know that Gruden tanked the season by keeping Rattay on the bench for most of the year. Reason: Gruden knew that if Rattay was starting everyone would have questioned why Simms was on the field, much less Grabo to start this year and the end of last. Check out Simms’ QB rating 05-06 and miserable playoff performance. Only sheep continue to parrot this negative talk about Tim. Compare his QB rating to Vick, Farve, on and on. Madden put Tim’s picture up, MVP Mon Night
February 22, 2007
Ryan:
Drew, let’s wait until the end of next year to make judgments on my opinions and predictions.
Bruce, what are you talking about?
February 23, 2007
drew:
Ryan, all I know is that you can bring up your stat about 90 percent of the Redskins’ runs being for less than 10 yards or whatever, but the bottom line is that they finished fourth in the league in rushing. That means their overall rushing offense was better than 28 other teams. I’ll take that over a bunch of big runs mixed with lost yardage and a mediocre overall rushing offense anyday.
March 17, 2007
bruce:
Ryan:
Am “..talking about..” facts:
Tim Rattay’s QB rating last year: 88.
Lifetime: 82.
Signing Tim “..to more dollars and years than he’s worth.”
Well, OK, you must be an expert at something!