NCAA BracketBusters Breakdown

When last we spoke, we were heading into a massive weekend of college basketball. Outside of the conference action (huge wins for Vanderbilt, Alabama, Louisville, Stanford and Maryland, terrible losses for Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Oregon, Clemson, and USC), the BracketBusters series will prove to be a pivotal moment of the season for several teams.

The story of the BracketBusters weekend figured to be the performance of the Missouri Valley and Colonial. Of the participating conferences, they have made the most noise on the national scene, and they were generally matched up in the best games of the series.

Results were decidedly mixed. Southern Illinois showed they are one of the top teams in the nation, regardless of conference, winning at Butler 68-64. Bradley, Drexel, and Old Dominion helped themselves. Missouri State, Wichita State, and VCU stubbed their toes severely. Creighton lost, but should still be okay. Hofstra won, but is still probably screwed.

One thing that jumped out was the performance by the Western Athletic Conference. Though they didn't get a shot at the best teams from the Colonial and Missouri Valley, they took care of the business at hand, going 7-2 with the only teams losing being 4-22 San Jose State and 3-23 Idaho. Nevada predictably handled Northern Iowa with ease, but don't overlook Utah State winning at Oral Roberts or Hawaii putting up a 54-point second half to win at Long Beach State. This was a good weekend for the WAC.

As for the state of Bubble Nation as a result of the 2007 BracketBusters series, here are some of the at-large considerations heading into the final days of the regular season.

Bradley 73, Virginia Commonwealth 64

With a huge road win over the Colonial's top team, the Braves might have helped themselves more than any other BB participant (followed closely by Appalachian State). The win leaves them with an 18-10 record (9-7 in conference), an RPI of 29, and a leg up over VCU if the two should be up against each other for one of the final at-large spots. With only two home games remaining before the MVC tournament (Northern Iowa on Tuesday, Indiana State on Saturday), the Braves could hold their fate in their own hands. For a team that started off 1-3 in conference, that's impressive (and another indication of how good a coach they have in Jim Les).

As for VCU, this loss probably ends any at-large hopes. Despite the gaudy record (22-6, 14-2 in conference), their RPI is in the high 50s, their non-conference SOS is sub-100, and they don't have that signature win to anchor their resume. Still, Anthony Grant has done a fantastic job with this team in his first year.

Winthrop 77, Missouri State 68

Barring a monumental upset in the Big South conference, the Eagles are going to take the auto bid and give somebody a very hard time in the first round (and possibly the second and third rounds). If that upset does happen, and they don't get the auto bid, I don't think this win is enough for an at-large. In essence, this is a nice win for Winthrop, but not terribly important to whether they make the Dance or not.

As for Missouri State, Barry Hinson reminds me of a saying Israeli statesman Abba Eban had about Yasser Arafat: he never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. With consecutive home games against Southern Illinois and Winthrop, the Bears had a chance to show the world (and, more importantly, the Selection Committee) that they belonged in the Dance. After losing both, they are still a respectable 19-9 overall (18-9 vs. DI) and 10-6 in conference. The sky hasn't fallen yet, but they need to do something impressive to erase the ugly performance when they had the national stage all to themselves on Friday night. They play at Wichita State tomorrow.

Appalachian State 60, Wichita State 58

Speaking of Wichita State, this loss was the death knell in their at-large hopes. It's win the auto bid or start dreaming of cutting down the nets at Madison Square Garden.

Appalachian State, however, has put itself into a position where they still have a glimmer of hope. If they can win out their last three in the regular season (@Western Carolina, UNC Greensboro, @Elon), then make a run to the conference finals (where they would most likely face Davidson in a rematch of App State's win earlier this year), they might still have a chance at an at-large if they lost that game. There's a lot of "ifs" and "mights" in there, but that's more than Wichita can say right now.

Drexel 64, Creighton 58

An impressive road win for the Dragons illustrates just how good this team could be. That's how they played in winning consecutive road games at Villanova, Syracuse, and Temple. But with an RPI in the 50s, and losses to Penn, Rider, and William & Mary on their record, I'm not sure it's going to be enough to warrant at-large consideration. It's a start, though.

I don't think Creighton did anything to damage their at-large possibilities, but this game did show the world that the Jays are much less effective with Anthony Tolliver in foul trouble. If I were coaching against them in the future, I would throw as many bodies at him as possible. Without him, they are very beatable.

Old Dominion 73, Toledo 70

As I wrote in the preview, Old Dominion's win here didn't turn heads around the country. But if you consider that ODU is now 21-7 with two winnable games to end the regular season (Towson on Wednesday, at William & Mary on Saturday), which would put them at 15-3 in league play with an 11-game winning streak, then add their road win over Georgetown (which is now looking like a possible 2-seed), and this has the look of a Last Four In team. I would personally rate them the favorite to win the Colonial auto bid, but even if they fall in the finals, I think they have a good chance to make it. And if they do, pay very close attention to their match up. This may be one of the most dangerous teams on your bracket.

Hofstra 65, Holy Cross 64

What this game showed is that Hofstra will be a great sleeper pick in the NIT. Holy Cross gave them all they could handle, and they barely escaped with a W. Neither of these teams have an at-large shot.

Nevada 79, Northern Iowa 64

I don't know who they are going to draw in the tournament, but I will have a very hard time not picking Nevada to at least the Sweet 16. They are a quality team with multiple options on offense, good coaching, and a star in Nick Fazekas. There really aren't any glaring weaknesses.

Northern Iowa, on the other hand, just doesn't have enough perimeter offense to compete on that high a level. Eric Coleman could play for anybody in the country, but Ben Jacobson the coach just couldn't replace Ben Jacobson the player. In the end, that's the biggest difference between NIU this year and NIU the past few years.

Southern Illinois 68, Butler 64

Again, there were no at-large considerations in this game. SIU showed they can play with anybody. The Salukis forced A.J. Graves into his worst game of the season, scoring just five points on 1-of-8 shooting (1-of-5 from three). I'm not sure what this says about Butler. They got beat by a great defensive team. There's no need to make any more of it than that.

Three other notes:

New Mexico State held home court against Ohio (77-72). I still don't think the Aggies are in at-large position, but at least they avoided the killer loss.

Wright State did what they had to do against Cal State Fullerton (77-62). With one game remaining before the Horizon tournament, they've won nine straight. If they happen to meet Butler in the conference tournament final, that will be a must-watch game.

Iona beat Delaware for their second win of the season. That's nice.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer who will work for a press pass to any conference tournament within a four-hour drive of St. Louis. For weekly NCAA Sleeper Watch updates, daily notes and picks from the world of sports, and team-by-team MLB previews, visit The Left Calf.