Madness in the Making: Part II

Continued from Madness in the Making: Part I

With the Colts' Super Bowl championship DVDs on order, it's time to set the NFL aside. It was a great season, filled with breakout new stars, a farewell to legends, and one of the worst performances by a QB in Super Bowl history. And between now and the NFL draft, college basketball has the stage to itself (with baseball spring training/fantasy draft prep in the two hole).

With teams well into their stretch run, some have-nots are starting to fall a little bit further behind, while others are starting to think they may have something after all. Last week, we checked out the Pac-10, SEC, Colonial, and Missouri Valley. This week: the Big East, ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten.

THREE ON THE WAY UP

Virginia (15-6, 7-2 ACC, RPI: 39)

After they lost to Appalachian State by 11 and Utah by 24 in Puerto Rico, the red flag went up on the Cavs. Then they lost three straight to Stanford, North Carolina, and Boston College, and I dismissed them as nothing more than a heartless guard-dominated team that couldn't hang with a legit defense. (The UNC and BC losses weren't terrible, but they should have been able to beat Stanford at home.)

But now Virginia has won six in a row, including home wins over Maryland and Duke, and a road win at Clemson. They made sure those wins would stand up by taking care of business against Wake Forest, NC State, and Miami. They are 7-2 and tied with BC atop the ACC.

And while they keys to this team are obviously Sean Singletary (19 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5 apg, 89% FT, 41% 3pt) and J.R. Reynolds (18.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.0 apg, 82% FT, 39% 3pt), the difference between the team that lost to Appalachian State and the team that beat Duke is Mamadi Diane and Jason Cain, both of whom were no-shows in Puerto Rico.

Overlooking a stink bomb (1-for-7 for 2 points) against NC State, Diane has been far more consistent, putting up double figures in the other five games in this current win streak, including 14 in each of the past two games (on 11-of-18 combined shooing). And Cain has been attacking the boards, with three double-digit rebounding games in the past six (after three the whole season before that, none in the previous nine), including 16 against Maryland.

If Adrian Joseph can become a consistent fifth contributor (he's made only 9-of-27 shots over the past six), and someone like Will Harris or Laurynas Mikalauskas can step up, head coach Dave Leitao might well have an NCAA tournament second weekend in his near future.

Kansas State (17-6, 6-2 Big 12, RPI: 41)

Count me among those who bought into the Bill Walker hype, giving up on the Wildcats when the touted freshman went down in the Texas A&M game. But what I (and the rest of those outside of Manhattan, KS — a lovely town by the way, great hot tubs) forgot was that Cartier Martin is not only a legit scorer (15.5 ppg, including 27 on 7-of 11 from three in their upset at Texas on Saturday), but he's also a clutch team leader in the mold of Acie Law IV and Mario Boggan.

With a seven-game winning streak and 6-2 record in conference plan, Bob Huggins is approaching lock status for this year's tournament. I say only "approaching" because their resume is still somewhat devoid of any huge RPI wins. (I stress the RPI in that sentence because I certainly consider winning at Texas about as impressive as it gets, but the Longhorns are only ranked 54 in the RPI, so it's not big from that narrow perspective.) In fact, K-State has only one win over an RPI top-50 team (USC at No. 44 on a neutral court) and two losses to sub-100 teams (New Mexico at 108 and Colorado State at 101, both on the road).

I still think the Wildcats will get in, but a split with Kansas (at the Phog on Wednesday, at home on 2/19) and a sweep of winnable home games against Colorado (2/10), Iowa State (2/17), and Oklahoma (3/3) would take the pressure of them going into the Big 12 tournament.

Indiana (16-6, 6-3 Big Ten, RPI: 18)

After seeing them lose to a quietly improving Iowa team, one might forget just how good the Hoosiers looked in beating Wisconsin last Wednesday. If anything, I'm leaning toward writing off the Iowa loss as a letdown game combined with an upstart playing out of their minds at home. In other words, don't let the loss fool you. The Hoosiers are good.

The first difference you notice between this Indiana team and previous Mike Davis-led editions is the intensity. They made Alando Tucker, a very serious candidate for national POY, look downright human in beating the second-ranked team in the country. If you look at the statistics, Indiana's rankings don't jump out as dominant, but they play with a doggedness you didn't see from the Davis teams.

Another important element to this team's success is the offensive efficiency. Now that Marco Killingsworth, aka "The Black Hole From Which No Pass Shall Emerge," is gone (only Maurice Ager and Tucker threw up more shots last year, and both played at least five more minutes per game), Indiana is playing much better team offense. Shooters are getting the ball in better positions, leading to a conference-best 38% team three-point average. They are only turning the ball over 12.5 times per game, third lowest in the conference and down two per game from last season.

With good players playing good basketball under a good coach, good things are sure to come. Though only ranked 25th in the latest AP poll, a decent draw and I could see Indiana making a serious March run. (Like, Final Four serious.)

THREE ON THE WAY DOWN

Syracuse (16-8, 5-5 Big East, RPI: 60)

I was going to have Syracuse in this category before Monday's loss to Connecticut, and now I know for sure they belong here. With losses in four of their past five, the Orange Bubble is just about Orange Crushed.

The problem with this team is the lack of glue. In other words, with Gerry McNamara dominating the ball for the past few years, nobody else seems to have learned how to run the offense. There's nobody to make everybody else better, and nobody to take charge in the clutch (i.e. nobody to make miracle shots to save the season).

If you look at Demetris Nichols' numbers, they look pretty good. He leads the team in scoring at 18.6 and shoots 48% from the floor (44% from three). The rest of the team doesn't look horrible, either. Terrence Roberts averages 10 points and eight boards per game. Eric Devendorf shoots 40% from three and averages 13.5 ppg. Josh Wright averages 4.7 assists per game, and Darryl Watkins 3.4 blocks per game.

Though I'm not a huge fan of tempo-free stats (I think they extract a critical element from the analysis, assuming teams would perform at equal levels if pace were somehow neutralized), they do provide an interesting look at this Orange team. For instance, though Syracuse ranks No. 51 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored divided by 100 possessions), they rank only 100 in effective FG% ((.5*3FGM+FGM)/FGA) and 160 in offensive turnover percentage (TO/possessions). (Courtesy kenpom.com. More information on these and other stats can be found on the site.)

The story is the same on defense, where Syracuse ranks a relatively respectable No. 41 in adjusted defensive efficiency, but a terrible 242 in defensive turnover percentage (turnovers forced/opponents' possessions) and an even worse 297 in defensive offensive rebounding percentage (OR allowed divided by (OR allowed+own DR)).

If none of that makes sense, here's the bottom line: whether you use regular stats or tempo-free stats, the Orange come out mediocre, and that's exactly why they are only .500 in a down Big East. With their next three at home vs. St. John's, at South Florida, and at home to UConn, the Orange can certainly still make a run. But even if they make the Dance, they are going to have to rise above mediocre to avoid a one-and-done.

Clemson (18-5, 4-5, RPI: 22)

While the Tigers are still certainly in the at-large conversation, they are by no means a lock. The last team in the nation to lose has now made it somewhat of a habit, losing five of six, including a disheartening 18-point drubbing at Georgia Tech on Saturday that saw head coach Oliver Purnell ejected for the first time in 12 years.

Perhaps the biggest concern right now is that one-time super sub K.C. Rivers seems to have run dry. After scoring in double-digits in the first 18 games, he has done so only once in the past five, including back-to-back six-point efforts in their last two losses to Virginia and the Jackets. Without Rivers lighting it up, it's debatable whether the Tigers have another player capable of carrying the offense.

Another concern is that the team is starting to get into a little bit of a "woe is us" rut with some of their recent misfortunes. This Purnell quote from clemson.scout.com, speaking about his ejection on Saturday:

"I apologized to our team for leaving them out there alone, but yet at the same time, enough is enough," he said. "We had the errors at Duke, an obvious no-call and walk that cost us the game against Virginia, and now in this game. ... We've got excessive contact on a foul that should have been called that way and now we have (the missed backcourt call two possessions earlier), and my frustration just boiled over. ... You've got to fight for your team. All we want is a fair shake."

One the one hand, he's right. You have to fight for your team. They've been getting jobbed recently, and I can only imagine how that messes with a coach's mind. On the other, he's giving his players an excuse to fail. With a home game against Florida State on Wednesday, we'll see which way his team responds.

Oklahoma State (18-4, 4-3 Big 12, RPI: 21)

It's hard to say an 18-4 team is on the way down, but the question with this team was always going to be how they would hold up through a brutal schedule with so little depth. After scoring only in the low-to-mid 60s against Oklahoma and Iowa State, then losing 89-77 at Colorado (which had been 1-7 in conference play), those concerns are growing.

Mario Boggan should be included in any national POY conversation, averaging 20.6 ppg and 7.8 rpg, and JamesOn Curry is about as solid a No. 2 scorer as you're going to find. But a seven-man rotation is no way to go through life, and poor Sean Sutton is a few more overtimes from looking like Nick Nolte's mug shot.

With a schedule that does the Cowboys no favors (at Oklahoma, Texas Tech, at Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, at Texas Tech, Kansas State, at Baylor, at Nebraska), it's going to be hard for this team to have anything left for the postseason. This may be one of those situations where an early exit from the Big 12 tournament helps them, even if it costs them a seed line.

COULD GO EITHER WAY

Big East Middle

Like the Missouri Valley, we know who's at the top of the Big East (Pittsburgh, Marquette, probably Georgetown even though I'm not entirely convinced), and we know who's at the bottom (Cincinnati, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida). We also know DePaul, St. John's, and Connecticut are dead from an at-large perspective. That leaves six teams that could make a Sweet 16 run or lose in the first round of the NIT.

We mentioned Syracuse already, so let's focus on the other five teams, bottoms up in the standings.

Villanova (15-7, 4-5, RPI: 20) has perhaps the best resume, despite its sub-.500 record in conference play. With wins over Georgetown, Notre Dame, Texas, Providence, and Louisville, Jay Wright's team has rallied around senior Curtis Sumpter and freshman Scottie Reynolds (who has made Mike Nardi far more effective). They also have a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the way, with their toughest road game at Marquette on 2/19.

Providence (14-7, 4-4, RPI: 49) has lost four of six, including a damaging loss at Seton Hall. They have wins over Marquette and Boston College, but their road swing to Pittsburgh (2/10) and Notre Dame (2/15) will tell the story of the Friars' postseason hopes.

Notre Dame (18-5, 6-4, RPI: 42) has probably done enough to earn an at-large if they don't screw it up with more losses to teams like St. John's (RPI 141) and South Florida (RPI 146). They have six games left in the regular season, and should/almost have to win at least five.

Louisville (16-7, 6-3, RPI: 59) has avoided the big loss, but hasn't gotten the big win, either. They host Georgetown on Wednesday, then (after hosting South Florida) travel to Pittsburgh (2/12) and Marquette (2/17). If they can beat the Hoyas and take a split against Pitt and Marquette, they would be in much better shape.

West Virginia (18-4, 7-3, RPI: 40) may be the least-tested of any 18-win team in the country (they have the worst overall SOS in the conference, and a terrible 294 non-conference SOS). That ends in their next two games against Pittsburgh on Wednesday and UCLA on Saturday. Both games are at home, so if the Mountaineers are who their record says they are (as Bill Parcells might say), they should win at least one. If they get blown out in both, they still have to go on the road to Georgetown (2/12), Providence (2/10), and Pittsburgh (2/27) in their last five.

Texas Tech (15-8, 404 Big 12, RPI: 34)

With wins over Arkansas, Kansas and Texas A&M, you would think Bob Knight would be a shoe-in for another run at the title, but a recent three-game losing streak (at Missouri, at home to Texas, at Oklahoma) has put the Red Raiders squarely back on the bubble.

I'm kind of at a loss to describe what's going on with this team. With seniors Jarrius Jackson and Darryl Dora, and juniors Martin Zeno and Charlie Burgess (who missed the Missouri game), you would think this team would be past the inconsistency you normally see from much younger teams. How do beat the Jayhawks and Aggies, then lose to middling conference teams like Mizzou and Oklahoma? Sure, those were tough conference road games, but NCAA tournament teams are supposed to be able to win those.

With Kansas State rising (their last loss was actually at home to Tech), the Red Raiders are now sitting in a position of hoping the Big 12 lands six bids. I'd say that's a very definite possibility, but I doubt Knight thought his team would be No. 6 on that list. After hosting Nebraska on Tuesday, Texas Tech goes to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. They also have to go to Texas, and play OK State in the back end of the home-and-home. If they don't want to be up against it come the Big 12 tournament, they need to win at least two of those marquis games. Lose all four and ... well, let's just say I wouldn't want to be a reporter asking Coach Knight what he thinks about the NIT.

Maryland (17-6, 3-5 ACC, RPI: 30)

With a non-conference schedule that included non-conference wins over Michigan State and Illinois, this was supposed to be the year the Terps finally climbed back into the upper echelon of the ACC (they haven't finished above .500 in conference play since 2002-03). But after losing three of their past five (albeit all three were on the road to Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Florida State), here they are again, looking up at the world.

Like Texas Tech above, you would expect better out of team with experience. D.J. Strawberry (14.8 ppg) is a senior. So are Mike Jones (12.6 ppg) and Ekene Ibekwe (11.1 ppg, 8 rpg). James Gist (12.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg) is a junior. Gary Williams is an established successful coach. So what gives?

It's a hard label to throw on somebody, but Strawberry has not brought his best against the best competition. In the home loss to Miami (by far their worst of the season), he shot 1-of-8 for seven points. Against Clemson (a game Maryland won), it was 4-of-8. Against Virginia, 2-of-11. Against Virginia Tech, 5-of-13. Against Florida State, 3-of-8.

Contrast that against Strawberry's better games. He has scored 19 or more eight times this season. The opponents: Hampton, Vermont, St. John's, Missouri-Kansas City, American, Mt. Saint Mary's, Siena, and Iona. Siena is a respectable team from the MAAC, but that's not exactly ACC-caliber opposition. For a guy who leads the team in minutes played and shots attempted, you need better.

Like other teams playing in the BCS conferences (a huge advantage over teams from the mid-majors), the end of the schedule provides teams on the bubble an opportunity to turn things around. The Terps host Virginia on Wednesday and Duke on Sunday. The rest of their schedule is at NC State (definitely not a gimme), at Clemson, home against Florida State and North Carolina, at Duke, and at home to NC State. At the end of that run, they will either be primed for an at-large, or looking at a Madison Square Garden ending as their best-case scenario.

Seth Doria is a freelance headline writer, blogger, and communications specialist living on the outskirts of St. Louis. For daily news and notes from the world of sports, politics and beyond, visit The Left Calf.