The Indianapolis Colts are currently projected as seven-point favorites against the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Here are four reasons why the Colts should win and why a loss would be devastating to the Colts and Peyton Manning.
1) AFC Dominance
Make no doubt about it, the AFC has had its way in the Super Bowl in recent history. The AFC has won the big game in eight out of the last 10 years. And those eight AFC wins were by an average margin of almost 10 points.
Why has the AFC been so dominant? Simply put, they are better. Better teams, better competition, better offenses, just plain better. The AFC conference championship game has recently been the golden ticket to the Super Bowl hardware store.
As the AFC representative, the Colts have played better teams to get to the Super Bowl and they have prevailed. The level of competition throughout the year and their high level of performance against that superior competition favors the Colts in this game.
2) Quarterback Play
Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have been led by an outstanding quarterback. Those seven victorious teams were captained by: Tom Brady (3), Kurt Warner in his prime (1), John Elway (2), and Brett Favre (1).
The unmistakable edge at quarterback in this year’s Super Bowl goes to the Colts and Manning. Many would argue that Bears quarterback, Rex Grossman, isn’t even among the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL, let alone on the same plane as Manning.
3) Vegas is Usually Right
Oddsmakers have picked the correct Super Bowl winner in seven out of the past 10 contests. While the winning team has not always covered the point spread, Vegas predicted the winner with 70% accuracy.
Betting on the Bears to win in this year’s game is a long-shot. Vegas is wrong on occasion, but they don’t make a habit of it.
4) Offense vs. Defense
The Bears have a very good defense. However, the Colts have enough firepower to score against any defense. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have been erratic on offense. Grossman has been inconsistent, while the Colts' defense has improved dramatically in the postseason.
The Bears should be able to score on the Colts defense, but not with the same effectiveness that the Colts should score on the Bears' defense. The Colts have the edge in offense versus defense matchups.
What does this all mean?
By most indicators, the Colts should win this game. Because of these high expectations, the Colts should be feeling immense pressure to perform.
While the Bears obviously will have much to say about who wins the game, the Colts in large measure control their own destiny. Failure to come through would more likely be the result of crumbling under the pressure than losing to a better team.
Manning got one monkey off his back by getting past the Patriots in the conference championship game. He must now be feeling the pressure of winning the ultimate big game.
If the Colts fall short, many will put the responsibility for their failure squarely on the shoulders of Manning. Manning detractors would continue their chant of "Manning can’t win the big one." A Super Bowl victory would do much to silence his critics and solidify his lock on a trip to Canton.
Todd Beckstead is founder of MonsterDraft.com, a fantasy football draft tool.
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