Madness in the Making: Part I

As the clock ticks toward February, March Madness is no longer on the far-off horizon. Teams are down to their final 10 regular season games, give or take a few. For those on the upper rungs of the power ladder, seeding is now the question. For those with some carnage on their resume, the time is now — shine or be left behind.

Everywhere you look, there are teams surging toward the finish line, a few more starting to fall behind, and a few that could go either way.

This week, we'll focus on teams from the Pac-10, SEC, Colonial, and Missouri Valley conferences. Next week, we'll take a look at the Big East, ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten.

Three on the Way Up

Vanderbilt (15-6, 5-2 SEC East, RPI: 58)

On a four-game streak that includes a 21-point beating of Alabama, plus road wins over Kentucky and LSU, the Commodores are no flash in the pan. Though they started with a resounding thud — a home loss to Furman dropped them to 1-3 — Kevin Stallings has nine players who have played all 21 games and average more than 12 minutes per game. Their top six scorers are juniors or seniors. They are fourth in the SEC in offense (78.7 ppg), third in three-point shooting (39%), second in assists per game (17.62), third in turnover margin (+3.1), and first in free-throw percentages (72%).

If there is a worry for Stallings, it's on defense. Vandy is only 10th in scoring defense (69.2 ppg allowed) and 10th in rebounding margin (-0.6). They also don't block many shots, last in the league at 2.95 per game. Then again, they out-rebounded LSU 37-31 and held the Tigers to 32% from the floor. (Though that's becoming increasingly common for the fading Tigers.)

Vanderbilt probably won't beat Florida in Gainesville on Wednesday, but have a return engagement against the Gators in Nashville on Feb. 17. They also have a home-and-home with South Carolina, home dates with Georgia, Kentucky, and Arkansas, and visits to Tennessee and Mississippi State. A 20-win season is certainly within reach, as is its first NCAA tournament appearance since a Sweet 16 run in 2004.

VCU (19-3, 11-0 Colonial, RPI: 45)

With all the attention given to George Mason last year and Drexel earlier this year, it's only fair the same spotlight be given to the Virginia Commonwealth Rams, perhaps the most improbable three-loss team in the nation.

Two weeks ago, the knock on the Rams was that their gaudy record was built against a schedule bereft of the Colonial's best. Then the Rams went out and beat Old Dominion, George Mason on the road, and the highlight of their season — a 75-68 win at Drexel. The Rams get their only chance at Hofstra (at least in the regular season) on Wednesday.

Led by head coach Anthony Grant, a man who knows winning basketball coming off 12 years as Billy Donovan's top assistant, VCU has three legit scoring options with B.A. Walker (15.9 ppg, 42% from three), Jesse Pellot-Rosa (14.4 ppg, 43% from three) and Eric Maynor (14.3 ppg, 5.9 apg). They lead the league in scoring (76.2 ppg), turnover margin (+5.8, a huge margin and more than double No. 2 Old Dominion), free throw percentage (72%), field goal percentage (46%), and three-point shooting (39%).

An interesting question is whether the Rams will land an at-large bid if they should fall in the conference tournament (still a very real possibility with Drexel and Hofstra in the bracket). They don't have any marquis wins out of conference (Houston and UAB are their best two), and have a loss to Appalachian State on their record. They do get to host a Bracket Busters game against Bradley, which could help their cause if they get the win.

Stanford (14-5, 6-3 Pacific 10, RPI: 30)

With Sunday's seven-point win over UCLA, plus non-conference wins over Texas Tech and Virginia on the road, the Cardinal are quickly approaching lock status (if they're not already there). Perhaps the most interesting stat in the box score from the UCLA game is that the Lopez twins, Brook and Robin, combined for only 13 points and, more importantly, only 2 blocks. The Cardinal still won, riding the hot shooting of guard Anthony Goods (20 points, 4-of-7 from three) and forward Lawrence Hill (22 points, 8-of-10 from the field).

But it still comes back to the Lopez twins and what they've done for this team. When you can rebound (second in rebounding margin at +5.7 and first in blocked shots at 4.88 per game), everybody else becomes that much better. Goods and freshman guard Landry Fields look like they should still be playing junior high ball, but they've given Stanford the trademark grittiness previously brought by guys like Mark Madsen, Arthur Less, Chris Hernandez, and Nick Robinson.

There are some warts for Trent Johnson's team, though. They are last in the conference in turnover margin (-2.12) and are in the middle-to-bottom in most offensive categories. A lot of that is left over from their rough beginning, and they are obviously playing much better of late, but they need to continue to progress if they want to do more than just make the tournament.

Three on the Way Down

Arizona (14-6, 5-4 Pacific 10, RPI: 6)

As an alum, it kills me to say this, especially on the heels of what I just wrote about Stanford, but the Wildcats play soft. I don't know if it's a lack of balls or brains, but they act as though they still belong to the old Pac-10, where you could get away with mediocre defense. But this isn't the old Pac-10. The league is becoming more and more about physical and mental toughness. Who can get punched in the mouth, smile with bloody teeth, then start swinging back? Arizona has consistently showed itself lacking in that area, culminating with Saturday's pathetic non-showing against North Carolina.

The absence of Kirk Walters has certainly been felt, as has the lack of progress from sophomores Mohamed Tangara and Fendi Onobun (plus J.P. Prince, who is transferring to Tennessee). Freshman forward Jordan Hill has stepped up over the past few games, but he's nowhere near the polished player he will become in the next three-plus years. He's still susceptible to stupid fouls, and can't be trusted to be a consistent force on offense.

Arizona is still going to make the tournament. They are still going to win 20 games, and will still be the higher seed when the madness begins. But if they get stuck playing a seeded-too-low team from the Colonial or Mountain West, it could be yet another quick exit for the Wildcats.

Drexel (16-5, 8-3 Colonial, RPI: 55)

The biggest difference between teams from the major conferences and teams from the mid-majors is the lack of wiggle room for the mid-majors. If Marquette looses a few, then get things turned around, they'll be fine. But when a team from the Colonial does it, it's lights out.

The Dragons were everybody's mid-major darling (mine, as well) after their Villanova/Syracuse/Temple road sweep in December. A 4-0 start in the conference had them making national headlines. Then they lost to Hofstra in a classic OT defensive battle. Then they lost to Old Dominion by 27. Then, after three straight wins against conference non-powers, they lost at home to VCU on Saturday. Just like that, their at-large hopes are dead.

I still believe in Bruiser Flint and his team defense, but they've fallen to third in the Colonial and are going to need to beat the conference's best before they can be considered a legitimate threat to make NCAA noise in March. They scored in the Bracket Busters pairings announcement with a visit to Creighton. A win would be huge. If they don't make the NCAA tournament, I'll probably pick them to win the NIT.

LSU (13-7, 2-4 SEC West, RPI: 74)

Losers of three straight, the Tigers' at-large hopes are quickly approaching the point of no return. They have scored 52, 53, and 54 points in consecutive losses to Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Georgia, and are next-to-last in the SEC in scoring offense (68.8), 10th in FG% (44%), and 10th in three-point shooting (35%). Their only big win is over Texas A&M back on Dec. 5, and I'm not sure that's going to hold up against an average-to-below average conference record.

If the Tigers have one thing going for them, it's that they don't have any horrible losses, though the Wichita State loss is somewhat more damaging due to the Shockers' MVC struggles. With 10 games remaining in SEC play, including Florida at home on Feb. 24, there is still time for a late run. RPI aside, an above-.500 record in the SEC and at least one or two wins in the SEC tournament should have the Tigers on the cusp of another bid. But take a few steps back anywhere along the way, and it's NIT time on the Bayou.

Could Go Either Way

Alabama (15-5, 2-4 SEC West, RPI: 34)

The obvious answer to the Tide's recent woes (losers of three-of-four, four-of-six) is the health of Ronald Steele, who is gutting out a bad knee game by painful game, and the terrible personal tragedies suffered by Jermareo Davidson (deaths of his brother and long-time girlfriend within weeks of each other). That's a lot for a group of kids to handle, and it could very well be the cause of their lost focus, giving up monster halves to Arkansas (49-20 first half in a 27-point loss), Vanderbilt (54-37 first half in a 21-point loss), Georgia (50-35 first half in a two-point win), and Auburn (46-21 second half in a 24-point loss).

Unfortunately for the Tide, extenuating circumstances don't change the numbers in the W and L columns. They are by no means dead in the water, but coach Mark Gottfried has to figure something out. Steele's knee isn't getting any better, and Davidson's emotional roller coaster has to have him exhausted.

Missouri Valley

My comments last week on their overall standing in the national power structure aside, this is one of the toughest conferences to figure out. At the top is Southern Illinois. At the bottom are Illinois State and Drake. As for everybody else, it's entirely up in the air. And with only seven games remaining, every night out is crucial.

Creighton (14-7, 8-3 MVC, RPI: 35) is tied with SIU in the standings, and would seem to have the second-best shot at an at-large if they don't win the auto-bid. Northern Iowa (15-6, 6-4, RPI: 54) have lost two in a row and four of six. They just lost to Drake by 13. Missouri State (15-7, RPI: 39) is tied with Bradley (15-8, RPI: 40) at 6-5, and just beat the Braves on Saturday to break a three-game losing streak and save their season. The Bears travel to Drake on Wednesday and Indiana State on Sunday, while the Braves host Creighton on Wednesday.

Wichita State (14-8, 5-6, RPI: 61) passed up the opportunity to roll over and die by beating Drake and Evansville, and now have a chance to get back to .500 at Northern Iowa on Tuesday. Win that game, and the Shockers are right back in this thing. Meanwhile, Evansville (12-6, 5-6, RPI: 92) and Indiana State (11-9, 4-6, RPI: 94) refuse to go away, though they will eventually.

So there you go.

(As mentioned above Creighton drew Drexel in the Bracket Busters series. Missouri State drew Winthrop, Southern Illinois a road trip to Butler, Northern Iowa a road trip to Nevada, Wichita State a home date against Appalachian State, and Bradley a visit to VCU. If the Missouri Valley wants its critics to shut up, Feb. 16 and 17 is a great opportunity to make it happen.)

Washington (13-7, 3-6 Pacific 10, RPI: 72)

Like Wichita State, the Huskies refused to roll over and die, sweeping the Oregon schools this past weekend (impressive even if Aaron Brooks didn't dress for the Ducks). With Arizona State on Thursday and a reeling Arizona team on Saturday, a sweep in the desert is not entirely out of the question.

The Huskies have the talent, but haven't yet put it together. Despite Spencer Hawes and Jon Brockman forming a dominant inside presence that has propelled Washington to a +9.8 rebounding margin, they rank dead last in scoring defense and only seventh in blocks. One reason for the defensive weakness is Ryan Appleby, who can nail the three (44%), but is an extreme liability as a perimeter defender. With guys like Brandon Roy or Nate Robinson around, Lorenzo Romar could hide Appleby, but not now.

For the Huskies to really make a run, Justin Dentmon is going to have to continue his resurgence from a horrible beginning to his sophomore season. Against the Oregon schools, he scored 41 (13-of-24 from the floor, 15-of-18 from the line) with 13 rebounds, 10 assists, and 5 steals. He has to be able to take control of the Huskies on the perimeter if they are going to take back their momentum from their 10-1 start.

With the Arizona trip, then the Bay Area schools and Wazzu at home, then at Pittsburgh, at the Oregon schools, and at home to the L.A. schools to finish the season, there's more than enough meat on the table for Washington to save the year. The question is whether the dogs have enough bite to take advantage.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer, blogger and communications specialist living on the outskirts of St. Louis. For daily news and notes from the world of sports, politics and beyond, visit The Left Calf.