Super Bowl XLI Preview

Five Quick Hits

* Bill Parcells has retired again. I think this stint in Dallas has hurt his legacy, and Parcells is not a lock for the Hall of Fame.

* Mike Tomlin is the new head coach in Pittsburgh. I've heard nothing but praise for the guy, but his pass defense in Minnesota was awfully suspect this year, and I don't feel good about the Steelers passing over the qualified coaches who were already on their staff.

* San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will succeed Nick Saban in Miami. Marty Schottenheimer has a pretty big hole to fill in his coaching staff.

* Jim Mora, Jr., has accepted a position as Seattle's defensive backs coach. Not a coordinator, not assistant head coach, nothing. That's quite a drop in rank.

* The Bengals had another player arrested this week. That's nine, if you're counting. About 20% of the team has been to jail in the last year.

***

Injuries always play a role in the NFL, but it's a shame when they affect games as big as the ones played this weekend. Both losing teams were missing key players. The Saints were blown out, and it's unlikely that one player would have made the difference, but the team clearly missed Joe Horn this weekend, both for his on-field play and his off-field leadership. New England was without veteran leaders Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau, and it's easy to think those guys might have swung the AFC Championship Game in the Patriots' favor.

Of course, the winning teams had injuries, too, most notably Chicago's all-pro DT, Tommie Harris. On Sunday, though, the absences of Horn and Harrison were hard to ignore.

Championship Game Roundups

New Orleans @ Chicago

In a weekend full of momentum swings, the early going in the Saints/Bears contest was full of them. New Orleans looked pretty good early, despite getting stifled by big plays from Chicago's defense. The Saints got at least one first down on each of their first three drives, getting to Chicago territory on two of them. On the other side of the ball, the Bears couldn't do anything. Both of their first two drives lasted less than a minute, yielding a total of six yards and no first downs.

Turnovers moved the momentum into Chicago's favor, with the offense starting three consecutive drives in Saint territory, all of them leading to field goals. The defining moment of the first half occurred when Chicago went on a four-minute, 69-yard touchdown drive that consisted of eight handoffs to Thomas Jones.

The Saints got a strong opening to the second half, as Reggie Bush, on one play, justified all the hype that surrounded him coming out of college. After somehow cutting between three tacklers, Bush turned on the jets and simply outran everyone to the end zone. Incredible play. Like almost everyone else, though, I could have done without his taunting the Bears.

That was the last spark of glory for New Orleans, though. The final turning point came when Drew Brees took an intentional grounding penalty in his own end zone, giving Chicago a safety. Brees didn't have a bad game statistically, but he really did not play well. There were times when I couldn't tell whether he was staying very cool in the pocket, or just didn't feel the pressure. Brees was sacked three times and committed two crucial fumbles, one of them causing a 25-yard loss and the other leading to a Chicago touchdown that put the game out of reach.

Brees was the Saints' leader this season, and he struggled with both his accuracy and decision-making on Sunday. There was a lot of discussion about Brees' decision not to wear a glove in the snowy conditions. It's unclear what role the weather played in his personal struggles, but it seems safe to say that (1) the bad weather hurt the Saints and (2) they would have lost anyway. I'm still not convinced that the Bears are the better team, but they certainly deserved to win on Sunday.

The Bears' aggressive defense dominated New Orleans on the line, generating a great pass rush and forcing a very poor outing from all-pro left tackle Jammal Brown. On offense, Chicago avoided mistakes and took advantage of their opponent's weaknesses: vulnerable cornerback Fred Thomas and a soft run defense. Teams that rush for 200 yards and go +4 in turnovers simply do not lose, especially in games of this magnitude.

New England @ Indianapolis

This game was football's equivalent to the Red Sox comeback against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS. Indianapolis is the NFL's Red Sox, a team that's always good, but can't win the big one. The Patriots are the league's Yankees, the team that's always on top and seemingly owns its closest competition. I realize that the Curse of the Bambino and the extravagant payroll issues aren't in play here, and an 18-point comeback isn't the same as three games down in a seven-game series, but the comparison rings true. The team that's always been on the losing end overcame a huge deficit –against its biggest rival — and ended years of futility to reach the sport's biggest stage. Sunday's game didn't have quite the same magnitude or historical significance of Boston's ALCS comeback, but it was degrees of the same thing.

This was the perfect way for Indianapolis to reach the Super Bowl. When the Patriots went up 21-3, I thought the game was over. It seemed like we were looking at the beginnings of a 30- or 40-point blowout. From that point on, though, Peyton Manning asserted himself in a game that may become a centerpiece of his legacy.

Indy's defense wasn't terrible, but on a day when the Colts surrendered 34 points and still won, it was all about Manning. He threw for 349 yards and a remarkable 20 first downs. The Patriots were able to take away the long pass for most of the contest, and Manning responded by completing 27 passes to nine different receivers. The Colts also got important production from their running backs, Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai.

In completing their improbable comeback — the largest in Championship Game history — the Colts scored 32 second-half points, against the NFL's second-best scoring defense, no less. New England's defense played well — particularly CBs Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs — but visibly wore down as the game went on. The longer this game lasted, the more that favored the Colts. There were individual problems, like Reche Caldwell's drops and the Pats' inability to adequately defend Dallas Clark, but the Patriots were simply outmatched. They weren't able to pressure Manning consistently, and in the second half, they were totally unable to stop the Indy offense.

As a final note, Manning's only touchdown pass in this game was caught by defensive lineman Dan Klecko. Who would have predicted that the Colts would score 38 points without any touchdowns from Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne? Indy's TDs were scored by Manning, Klecko, Jeff Saturday, and Addai. Congratulations to Tony Dungy, Manning, Harrison, Adam Vinatieri, Marlin Jackson, and everyone wearing blue and white on Sunday.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XL: Bears vs. Colts
Miami, Florida

There are three big storylines in this game. The boring one is the matchup between the powerful Indianapolis offense and the dominant Chicago defense. The important one is the matchup between two African-American head coaches, the first time even one has been in charge of a Super Bowl team. Probably the most compelling, though, is Manning's shot at the big one.

Remember Super Bowl XXXII? John Elway's Broncos against the Packers? Almost every football fan in America was rooting for Elway to finally get his ring. Elway didn't generate the same animosity Manning does — it seems like the same people who were mad at him for not winning a championship are now rooting for him not to — but there will be a lot of people hoping we've heard the last about Manning and Dungy being unable to win meaningful games. A Super Bowl win would put both Manning and Dungy over .500 in the postseason.

The coaching matchup is interesting not only because it's the first time a black head coach has reached the Super Bowl — and one is certain to win — but because Lovie Smith used to work for Tony Dungy. It's a matchup of mentor vs. protégé, and pits last season's Coach of the Year against the runner-up.

The results of this game will probably depend less on the coaches, though, than on the quarterbacks. Dungy has the best one of this generation. Smith has Rex Grossman. You can't win the Super Bowl without a quarterback, and the Bears don't have one. Compare Grossman with Trent Dilfer if you like, but the Colts are a lot better than the '00 Giants, and Manning ain't Kerry Collins.

For Chicago to have a chance, it needs another big game from the defense. Sacks, fumbles, interceptions, three-and-outs. Big plays from special teams would help, too. A dynamic return game kept New England alive in the AFC Championship Game, and could do the same for the Bears in Miami.

On offense, the Bears will try to establish a strong running game, as they did against New Orleans. Grossman will throw just enough to keep the defense honest, and he'll get a lot of extra protection to deal with Indy's pass-rushers up front. Keep an eye on how they play Dwight Freeney, in particular. A couple big plays from the passing game could swing the contest, but Chicago won't count on that, instead trying to control the clock and grind out yardage with the running game.

Indianapolis probably won't change much about the defensive gameplan it's used throughout the postseason. Stopping the run comes first, and the front four — particularly Robert Mathis and Freeney — will be responsible for generating pressure on Grossman. Nick Harper's injury could be a major blow to the Colts.

On offense, the Colts will take what Chicago gives them. Blanket the wide receivers, as New England did, and Manning will throw to Clark and Ben Utecht and the running backs. Clog the middle, and Harrison and Wayne will destroy you. Use extra defensive backs, and Manning hands off to Rhodes and Addai. That strategy has worked all postseason, and Indianapolis has to stick with it. The most important factor is avoiding turnovers. Dungy and his staff will spend the next two weeks emphasizing ball control.

The Colts are battle-tested in a way the Saints were not, and they're not just happy to be in the Super Bowl. I think Chicago used up all its miracles last week, and the Bears won't be able to stop Manning, or to score consistently with Grossman under center. A Colts blowout wouldn't surprise me, but I'll say Chicago's defense makes enough plays to keep it close.

Colts 30, Bears 16