MVC: Most (Over)Valued Conference

Here's a thought, and I'm just putting this out there: maybe the Missouri Valley is overrated. Maybe the top teams just aren't as good as everybody is making them out to be. Maybe — just maybe — everybody's mid-major hottie is really just a homely girl with lots of make-up, a wig, a glass eye, a stuffed bra, and a fake butt.

Take a look through the standings:

1. Northern Iowa, 15-4, 6-2, RPI: 44, Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 293

The first thing that jumps out at you is the terrible non-conference strength-of-schedule. Their record is built off the likes of Nicholls State (RPI 293), South Dakota State (318), and Missouri-Kansas City (278). Even their best non-conference wins, over Iowa and Iowa State, are much less impressive than they might be in past years.

The Panthers have racked up two big wins in Valley play, over Southern Illinois and at Missouri State. Those may balance out the losses to Illinois State and Loyola Chicago (a decent Horizon team despite their 107 RPI), but there is much work left to do to overcome that non-conference SOS. Selection Sundays are riddled with teams banished as a result of weak scheduling, and NIU will probably join that group without the auto bid.

2. Southern Illinois, 15-5, 6-3, RPI: 9, NCSOS: 45

When you look at their schedule, it's hard to see how the computer kicks out such a high RPI. Their best non-conference win was a neutral-site five-pointer over Virginia Tech. Their win at Creighton on Saturday was their first impressive road win of the season, breaking a three-game road losing streak to Northern Iowa, Bradley, and Evansville. Of their 14 wins against D1 opposition, nine are against teams with an RPI of 100 or lower.

The Salukis still have two major road tests with visits to Wichita State (2/3) and Missouri State (2/13). They also host Bradley and Creighton. Right now, their RPI says yes, but their schedule says hold on for just a second.

3. Creighton, 12-7, 6-3, RPI: 45, NCSOS: 112

After beating Bradley last Thursday, the preseason pick to win was in sole possession of first place. Then they lost at home to Southern Illinois on Saturday, their first home loss of the season, dropping them into a ties for second.

The Blue Jays have several bad losses, including Nebraska (RPI 88), Fresno State (RPI 111), and Hawaii (RPI 131). Three other losses (Dayton, Indiana State, and Wichita State) came away from their home court, where they are 8-1 this season (including their best non-conference win, a six-pointer over up-and-down A10 leader Xavier).

Can they win a tough game on the road? So far, they have just two road wins, against Evansville and Northern Iowa. Four of their next six are on the road, including trips to Springfield, Peoria, and Carbondale. They needed to hold home court against Southern Illinois.

Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Jays landing an at-large bid. They're certainly not out of the picture, but the non-conference SOS and losses to sub-100 RPI teams may come back to haunt them.

4. Missouri State, 14-5, 5-3, RPI: 31, NCSOS: 66

Everybody's pity-part guest of honor from 2006 has a huge neutral-site win over Wisconsin and impressive showing against Oklahoma State (lost by three in OT). Their worst loss from an RPI standpoint was a one-point loss to St. Louis (RPI 102), where they got robbed because the only TV angle available to the refs showed a last-second tip as counting when later replays showed it as coming after the clock struck zeroes.

Going into last week, Barry Hinson's Bears may have been in the best at-large shape of any of Valley team. They still have the best pure shooter in the conference (Blake Ahearn) and have a quality road win at Bradley in their pocket. Unfortunately for them, they then lost at home to Northern Iowa and on the road to Evansville.

And the dark secret in the closet is that Hinson is the MVC's answer to Marty Schottenheimer. He can't be trusted in a big game. When they get into a first-round game in the MVC Tournament against another at-large candidate (Creighton? Bradley?), it's going to be win or NIT for the Bears. With Hinson at the helm, nobody is Springfield should feel safe.

5. Bradley, 14-7, 5-4, RPI: 35; NCSOS: 43

With the best non-conference SOS in the league, Bradley presents an interesting case. Though only 5-4 in conference play, three of those losses came at Northern Iowa, Wichita State, and Creighton. All are somewhat forgivable, and the win at Indiana State is more impressive considering the other teams that have failed under the same circumstances. If they didn't have an ugly road loss to Tennessee Tech (RPI 156) on their resume, they would be in better shape. The 15-point home win over Wichita State on Saturday will certainly help.

6. Indiana State, 11-7, 4-4, RPI: 71, NCSOS: 157

With the ghost of Larry Bird flying in the rafters, the Sycamores have a dossier of quality home wins over Butler, Purdue, Creighton, and Wichita State. Unfortunately, they have also lost to Middle Tennessee State (RPI 136) and Ball State (RPI 259).

With road losses to Drake on Thursday and Northern Iowa on Saturday, plus visits to Creighton and Southern Illinois in their next three, there's a very good chance Indiana State falls away from the pack before the end of the month. Still, not a bad run for a team picked for the Valley cellar in the pre-season.

7. Evansville, 11-9, 4-5, RPI: 91, NCSOS: 201

There's no shot at an at-large (absolutely none), and I don't see them being able to climb over the top of the league for a miracle run at the auto bid. But like the teams below them, they have what it takes to damage someone else, starting with an impressive win over Missouri State on Saturday. Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Bradley all still have to play on the Aces' home turf.

8. Wichita State, 12-8, 3-6, RPI: 61, NCSOSL 134

With road wins at LSU and Syracuse, I was surprised to see their NCSOS so low. Then I saw their four home wins over 150+ RPI teams, including two 300+ (MD Eastern Shore at 325 and Kennesaw State at 301).

After starting 8-0, the Shockers have gone flat, losing eight of 11. It remains to be seen if they can turn it around, but it's doubtful. There's just too much carnage on the resume to hope for an at-large (though they do have the talent to make a run at the auto bid). This has to go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for any team in the nation (along with Washington in the Pac-10).

9. Illinois State, 11-9, 3-6, RPI: 124, NCSOS: 236

With home wins over Northern Iowa and Wichita State in the last two weeks, at least the Redbirds are still showing some fight. And they are out of the cellar after Saturday's 15-point home win over Drake.

10. Drake, 11-9, 2-7, RPI: 100, NCSOS: 200

The sad thing is they are 2-7 and still play Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State two games each. Perhaps there are some spoiler possibilities, but it doesn't look good.

***

There's one obvious counter-argument to the "overrated" charge, and that's to explain the top teams losing to the bottom teams with the parity line. You've heard it before — "That just goes to show how good the league is one through 10. There's no gimmes in this league. Teams are going to lose. All that proves is the overall strength of the conference."

But that's a bogus argument when it comes to the 2006-2007 Missouri Valley Conference. There are losses to sub-100 RPI teams throughout the league. An astounding seven teams have non-conference strength of schedules below 100 (four below 200) and only Bradley and Southern Illinois are in the top 50.

If there is one thing the Selection Committee has shown over the years, it's a propensity to kill teams over weak scheduling. No team has taken control, and it seems inevitable the lower teams like Illinois State and Evansville will continue to siphon off wins from the bigger-name schools.

So how again is this supposed to be a four- or five-big league?

It's not. They should get three at the most, and the only two with a realistic shot at an at-large are Southern Illinois and Bradley. If one of those two takes the auto bid, this should be a two-bid conference.

(You can begin screaming now.)

Seth Doria is a communications specialist and freelance writer in St. Louis. His wife and many friends went to (Southwest) Missouri State. His book, "Tales From Cube C30005," is not yet written. For more, visit The Left Calf.