Friday, January 5, 2007
The Saints Will Go Marching In
Sports in 2006 were marked Cinderella stories and incredible tales of overcoming adversity. Nobody will forget George Mason, the ultimate Cinderella, and their remarkable run to the Final Four. But there were others who defied the odds, as well.
The Detroit Tigers, the laughingstock of Major League Baseball just a short time ago, steamrolled the New York Yankees en route to the World Series. Only then did the train get derailed by the St. Louis Cardinals, who improbably claimed baseball's ultimate prize as owners of the worst record of any of the eight playoff teams.
Then there were those who overcame adversity. Tiger Woods, shaken beyond measure by the loss of his father and best friend Earl Woods, returned with a vengeance and won both the British Open and the U.S. Open.
Most horse-racing fans wanted Barbaro, the Kentucky Derby winner, to be put out of his misery right on the spot after injuring his leg in the first furlong of the Preakness. Barbaro scoffed at such at such a notion. He's still scoffing — and feeling much better — eight months later.
In 2006, we were even fortunate to witness one of those times when Cinderella and adversity collide to yield a simply unforgettable moment. That's what happened when Jason McElwain, an autistic kid who served as manager for the Greek Athena High School basketball team in New York, got into a game late in the fourth quarter and promptly lit up the scoreboard — and the sports world — to the tune of 20 points. Six miraculous three-pointers and hello, Hollywood.
Just one day into 2007, the trend appears to be continuing. Tiny Boise State faced Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and produced a game for the ages. The upstarts from the WAC tied the Big 12 powerhouse on a hook-and-lateral play on 4th-and-18, tied it again in OT on a fourth-down halfback pass, and ultimately won the game with a stunning Statue of Liberty two-point conversion. Yet again, the slipper had fit snugly on Cinderella.
Now it's the New Orleans Saints turn. We all know the adversity aspect of their story, and while the team's status as an underdog isn't quite as striking, it is still very real. After all, the Saints are perennial underdogs. They haven't tasted the playoffs since 2000, and have never reached the NFC Championship game in the history of the franchise. Heck, New Orleans has won just one playoff game in their entire existence.
But as a couple unfortunate teams will soon find out, these aren't your grandfather's Saints.
Assuming Philadelphia can handle a New York Giants squad that has put a new meaning to the term "disappointing," New Orleans will play host to the Eagles in the divisional playoff round. The Saints aren't going to lose in a place that just one year ago was a homeless shelter to a team that's been put together with super-glue. If the Superdome saved lives in 2006, it can suck the life out of the Eagles in 2007.
Even without the motivating extracurricular factors, I still think the Saints would thump Philadelphia. Sure, Jeff Garcia and company aren't even close to as bad as the "superglue" reference might suggest, but they aren't this good. They aren't five-game winning streak material. They wouldn't even be NFC-East Champion material if the Cowboys and Giants had not turned into Santa Claus and delivered the title to the Eagles in a gift-wrapped package.
Garcia has exceeded everyone's expectations since taking over for Donovan McNabb in Week 11 and running back Brian Westbrook is just about the scariest matchup a defense can face. Even the young receiving corps has stepped up and allowed Garcia to spread the wealth — and the ball — all over the field.
Still, Philadelphia's recent surge has come at the expense of mostly listless teams. In the last five weeks of the season, the Eagles disposed of Carolina, the most disappointing team in the NFL, Atlanta, the second most disappointing team in the league, Washington, a terrible disappointment, as usual, Dallas, and the New York Giants. Both of those teams' struggles of late have been well-documented to say the least. For Philadelphia, it won't be quite the same venturing into New Orleans.
Simply put, the Eagles are pretty good. Pretty good won't be good enough in the Superdome.
That's because there will be a few guys on the other sideline who are a lot more than "pretty good." One is the Saints' quarterback. One is a Saints' receiver. Two are Saints' running backs.
Drew Brees would be getting showered with MVP talk had LaDanian Tomlinson not sprinted to NFL immortality this season. The Pro Bowler led the NFL in passing with 4,418 yards and threw 26 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. Rarely was Brees stopped.
The only thing that even came close to stopping Marques Colston in 2006 was an ankle injury. Otherwise the seventh-round pick out of Hofstra would have been the offensive Rookie of the Year. Colston caught 70 passes for 1,038 yards and 8 touchdowns, while essentially playing in just 12 games.
In the backfield, the Saints will see the Eagles' Brian Westbrook with a Reggie Bush and then raise them a Deuce McAllister. McAllister eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, despite deferring 155 carries to Bush. He also scored 10 times despite playing in such a crowded backfield. Just think what the numbers would have been like if the Texans hadn't made a mockery of the No. 1 pick in 2006.
Bush, meanwhile, amassed 1307 yards from scrimmage and found the end zone eight times, including once on a punt return. Only for the mercurial Reggie Bush would such numbers be considered merely respectable. The 2006 Heisman Trophy winner really turned things on late in the season as his ankle injury improved, and with another week before the Saints take the field, Bush should be on fire come playoff time.
It's more than obvious that the Saints can outscore anybody in the NFC. The glaring question mark is if the defense can stop anyone.
I'm not sure whether it's a testament to the Saints' defense or the ineptitude of the rest of the NFC's offenses that I think they answer to that question is they can.
Oh, wait. It must be more about the others' futility, because I just remembered Rex Grossman is the quarterback of the NFC's top team. Or is he? Either way, the simple fact that Grossman led the Chicago Bears to the best record in the conference speaks volumes about the quality of the National Football Conference. As mediocre as the Saints' defense is, the unit should be able to keep whatever offenses they face under control, at least enough to let their own offense win the games.
If the Giants pull off the upset in Philadelphia, New Orleans will host the winner of Seattle and Dallas. The Seahawks floundered into their regular season finale at Tampa Bay with a three-game losing streak before steamrolling the hapless Bucs and clinching the woeful NFC West. Dallas, meanwhile, has lost three of four (the lone win in that span was a less-than-inspiring squeaker over Atlanta), including a season-ending loss at Detroit, a team that had been in line for the No. 1 pick of the 2007 NFL Draft.
Perhaps the most telling fact of any is that it was the Saints who sent the Cowboys into a tailspin with a 42-17 win at Dallas in Week 17. There's no reason to think it wouldn't be equally ugly at New Orleans in the playoffs.
Next up after that would in all likelihood be a visit to Soldier Field. If hostile winter weather reigns down upon Chicago on the day of this potential NFC Championship Game, you can throw all of this analysis out the window. But if Mother Nature gives New Orleans a chance — and, boy, Mother Nature sure owes them a chance — the Bears are in trouble.
It's never easy to say a 13-3 team is struggling going into the postseason, but Chicago is doing just that. The Bears just fell at home 26-7 to Brett Favre and the Packers. That stinkbomb was preceded by a come-from-behind 26-21 victory at Detroit and a 34-31 overtime win at home over the Tampa Bay Bucs. The vaunted Chicago defense surrendered 28 second-half points (21 in the fourth quarter) to a Tampa Bay squad that finished 29th in the league in total offense and ahead of only the Oakland Raiders in scoring.
Considering the two teams' current forms, I'm confident coach Sean Payton could throw an offensive scheme at the Chicago "D" in which Brees would throw all over the Bears, Deuce would run all over the Bears, and Reggie would do everything all over the Bears.
What many people probably don't realize is that Chicago ranked fifth in the league in total defense. It was their 44 takeaways that had the unit being celebrated like this was 1985. The Saints, however, ranked near the top of the NFL in giveaways, turning the ball over just 23 times. In their last five meaningful games (not including the finale against Carolina), New Orleans committed just one turnover. If Brees and company play that kind of flawless ball in Chicago, you can stick a fork in the Bears.
Katrina did not stop the New Orleans Saints and neither will any team in the NFC.
It might be a different story in the Super Bowl, where the Saints would play one of the AFC's goliaths.
But then again, you never know. If the last year in sports has taught us one thing, it's that anything — yes, anything — is possible.