NCAA Sleeper Watch: Spin Cycle

A few notes from the past week or so:

If you're getting beat by the Tar Heels, don't expect a cheap come-back cover like Arizona gave Cal earlier in the week. Roy Williams had his best guys in there with five minutes left and a 30-point lead. They put their feet on Dayton's throat and ground it out like a burnt cigarette. It was brutal to watch.

(Duke does not possess this kind of mean streak. This is why UNC wins the ACC and gets the No. 1 seed overall.)

If Selection Sunday were today, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona would be my other No. 1 seeds. Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and UCLA would be No. 2 seeds. There's a gaggle of teams that could make an argument for the three or four lines. Texas A&M would definitely be a three.

So Saddam has been dead for a few days now. Feel any different?

Stanford played a fantastic game against Arizona. They would have beaten 95 percent of the teams in the country with that performance. It was one the best jobs passing I've seen this year, especially with such a young team that relies so heavily on its big guys to handle the ball. And there's no way they don't lead the Pac-10 in offensive rebounds this year. It was only through the sheer will of Mustafa Shakur that Arizona turned around a Stanford rally and prevented a national shocker.

Is it just me, or does this whole Gerald Ford remembrance seem a little empty? It's like everybody feels like they should feel bad because he was the president, but nobody really feels bad. I mean no disrespect to his legacy. Perhaps it's just my generation (born in '75) can't really appreciate the job facing a president in the post-Watergate/end of Vietnam era.

Listening to Paul Westphal through the second half and double overtime of the USC/Washington game on FSN West was truly painful. I'm holding a grudge.

God love the Air Force. Not only will these cadets one day protect our freedom with their fast planes and big bombs (I am not being sarcastic), but I can always count on them for a cover when the tide is otherwise turning against me. (And I can always count on the odds-makers not counting on them, which is also nice.)

Ben Hansbrough the freshman is good. Ben Hansbrough the senior is going to be awesome. I expect at least one Elite Eight run from Mississippi State during his career.

Andrei Arlovski a bad, bad man. UFC 66 on Saturday was the best fighting pay-per-view I've ever seen — boxing or MMA. Just classic fight after classic fight — It was an awesome spectacle of brutality. Boxing is falling farther and farther behind.

Speaking of boxing, "Mike Tyson was arrested for driving under the influence and possession of cocaine after police stopped him leaving a Scottsdale nightclub early Friday." Am I bad person for smiling when I read that?

Nebraska just quietly goes rolling along.

UNLV is on a roll. (I can't wait until they play Air Force on Saturday.)

God damn, Hofstra's Loren Stokes is quick.

Connecticut looks like they're playing ball at Rucker Park.

And Wichita State falls again. (SHOCKA!)

(I go to the MVC Tournament here in St. Louis every year, and the Wichita State fans walk around yelling "Shocker!" at everybody. I'm originally from the East Coast, so it sounds like "Shocka!" when I say it. My friends and I then yell "SHOCKA!" at everybody for at least a week. It's good fun.)

***

On to this month's NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch. Remember the objective is to identify underdog teams capable of making at least a Sweet 16 run as a 6 seed or lower in the 2007 tournament. (the rules)

The Watch

1. Drexel (9-2, 1-0 Colonial, RPI*: 7)
2. Villanova (11-2, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 11)
3. Maryland (13-2, 0-1 ACC, RPI: 13)
4. UNLV (13-2, 0-0 Mountain West, RPI: 9)
5. Nebraska (9-3, 0-0 Big 12, RPI: 48)
6. Wichita State (9-4, 0-2 Missouri Valley, RPI: 50)
7. Washington State (12-2, 1-1 Pac-10, RPI: 31)
8. Purdue (11-3, 0-0 Big Ten, RPI: 39)
9. South Carolina (9-2, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 58)
10. Missouri (11-2, 0-0 Big 12, RPI: 36)
11. Northern Iowa (11-2, 2-0 Missouri Valley, RPI: 41)
12. West Virginia (11-1, 1-0 Big East, RPI: 69)
13. Missouri State (11-3, 2-1 Missouri Valley, RPI: 33)
14. Bradley (10-5, 1-2 Missouri Valley, RPI: 22)
15. St. Louis (10-3, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 44)
16. Dayton (10-3, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 60)
17. DePaul (9-5, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 53)
18. Providence (9-3, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 62)
19. Stanford (8-3, 1-1 Pac-10, RPI: 52)
20. Hofstra (8-4, 1-0 Colonial, RPI: 85)
21. Mississippi (11-3, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 104)
22. Winthrop (10-3, 0-0 Big South, RPI: 42)
23. Ohio (9-3, 0-0 MAC, RPI: 65)
24. Mississippi State (9-4, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 88)
25. San Diego State (11-3, 0-0 Mountain West, RPI: 61)
26. Texas Tech (11-4, 0-0 Big 12, RPI: 43)
27. Western Kentucky (11-4, 3-1 Sun Belt, RPI: 40)
28. Davidson (12-3, 3-0 Southern, RPI: 28)
29. Cincinnati (9-4, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 122)
30. Akron (9-3, 0-0 MAC, RPI: 147)
31. George Washington (8-3, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 98)
32. Appalachian State** (11-3, 3-0 Southern, RPI: 10)
33. Georgia (8-4, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 107)
34. New Mexico (11-4, 0-0 Mountain West, RPI: 91)
35. Temple (6-6, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 95)
36. Virginia Tech (9-4, 1-0 ACC, RPI: 64)
37. New Mexico State (10-3, 0-0 WAC, RPI: 73)
38. Fresno State (11-2, 0-0 WAC, RPI: 101)
39. Massachusetts (10-4, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 97)
40. Marist (10-4, 2-0 Metro Atlantic, RPI: 92)

* RPI courtesy kenpom.com (prior to games of 1/1). With the non-conference schedule now mostly complete, the RPI starts to become a more legitimate tool for judging the strength of at-large candidacies. The rankings are far from final, as teams from the better conferences will see their RPI rise as they play their conference schedules, while teams from lower-ranked conferences will see their RPI fall. Still, it's an additional piece of data to follow in determining a team's prospects for effing up my bracket.

** The magic ride for the Mountaineers continued with a three-point win at Virginia Commonwealth. Appalachian State was down 17 in the second half, then rallied behind junior forward Donte Minter, who scored 15 of his 25 points in the final 4:37. The Apps may well be 7-0 in the Southern when they head to Davidson on January 20.

Promoted out — None
Demoted in — Wichita State (Losing three games in eight days will do that to you. They'll be okay in the end, though.)
Teams added — Hofstra, Stanford, Wichita State
Teams dumped — Loyola Chicago, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth ***
The Others — (Sleepers receiving votes in the latest ESPN/USA TODAY poll): West Virginia (#26), Maryland (#27), Wichita State (#31), UNLV (#29), Washington State (#31), Drexel (#35-tie), Northern Iowa (#35-tie), Missouri State (#37), Winthrop (#40-tie)

*** Part of the rankings is a team's ability to get into the tournament. With Old Dominion's home loss to Winthrop and VCU's loss to Appalachian State, the Monarchs' and Rams' chances of at-large bids are close to none (unless they run the table in the Colonial, then fall in the conference tournament finals — an unlikely scenario).

So Hofstra, with wins over St. Joseph's and St. John's in their last two, and Stanford, with a win over Arizona State and "good loss" to Arizona, get in, and Old Dominion and VCU are sent packing. Temple is next if they don't watch out. Playing at Xavier in their next game after their recent loss to Duke probably won't help.

As for Marist, I just don't know. They have no shot at an at-large and are now a game behind Siena in the MAAC. It's just that with Jared Jordan, who had a triple-double in last night's loss to Loyola (MD), and Will Whittington, who scored 19, I think they could pull a miracle if they do get into the NCAA tournament. I'm leaving them on the Watch at #40. I just can't let go.

***

A dozen games involving sleeper teams to keep an eye on this week (all times EST):

Villanova at West Virginia, Wednesday, 7:30 PM
DePaul at St. John's, Wednesday, 7:30 PM
California at Stanford, Wednesday, 10 PM
Bradley at Wichita State, Thursday, 8:05 PM
Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa, Saturday, 1 PM (ESPNU)
UNLV at Air Force, Saturday, 3:30 PM
Akron at Ohio, Saturday, 7 PM
Western Kentucky at Nebraska, Saturday, 8 PM
Arizona at Washington State, Saturday, 10 PM
Kansas at South Carolina, Sunday, 4:30 PM (CBS)
Stanford at Virginia, Sunday, 5 PM
Wichita State at Missouri State, Sunday, 5:30 PM

Daily NCAA Reports, plus weekly updates to the Sleeper Watch, are available at The Left Calf.