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January 31, 2007

Four Reasons Why the Colts Will Win

The Indianapolis Colts are currently projected as seven-point favorites against the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Here are four reasons why the Colts should win and why a loss would be devastating to the Colts and Peyton Manning.

1) AFC Dominance

Make no doubt about it, the AFC has had its way in the Super Bowl in recent history. The AFC has won the big game in eight out of the last 10 years. And those eight AFC wins were by an average margin of almost 10 points.

Why has the AFC been so dominant? Simply put, they are better. Better teams, better competition, better offenses, just plain better. The AFC conference championship game has recently been the golden ticket to the Super Bowl hardware store.

As the AFC representative, the Colts have played better teams to get to the Super Bowl and they have prevailed. The level of competition throughout the year and their high level of performance against that superior competition favors the Colts in this game.

2) Quarterback Play

Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl winners have been led by an outstanding quarterback. Those seven victorious teams were captained by: Tom Brady (3), Kurt Warner in his prime (1), John Elway (2), and Brett Favre (1).

The unmistakable edge at quarterback in this year’s Super Bowl goes to the Colts and Manning. Many would argue that Bears quarterback, Rex Grossman, isn’t even among the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL, let alone on the same plane as Manning.

3) Vegas is Usually Right

Oddsmakers have picked the correct Super Bowl winner in seven out of the past 10 contests. While the winning team has not always covered the point spread, Vegas predicted the winner with 70% accuracy.

Betting on the Bears to win in this year’s game is a long-shot. Vegas is wrong on occasion, but they don’t make a habit of it.

4) Offense vs. Defense

The Bears have a very good defense. However, the Colts have enough firepower to score against any defense. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have been erratic on offense. Grossman has been inconsistent, while the Colts' defense has improved dramatically in the postseason.

The Bears should be able to score on the Colts defense, but not with the same effectiveness that the Colts should score on the Bears' defense. The Colts have the edge in offense versus defense matchups.

What does this all mean?

By most indicators, the Colts should win this game. Because of these high expectations, the Colts should be feeling immense pressure to perform.

While the Bears obviously will have much to say about who wins the game, the Colts in large measure control their own destiny. Failure to come through would more likely be the result of crumbling under the pressure than losing to a better team.

Manning got one monkey off his back by getting past the Patriots in the conference championship game. He must now be feeling the pressure of winning the ultimate big game.

If the Colts fall short, many will put the responsibility for their failure squarely on the shoulders of Manning. Manning detractors would continue their chant of "Manning can’t win the big one." A Super Bowl victory would do much to silence his critics and solidify his lock on a trip to Canton.

Todd Beckstead is founder of MonsterDraft.com, a fantasy football draft tool.

Posted by Todd Beckstead at 10:36 PM | Comments (0)

Fans, Can We Trust Ourselves?

We live in a democratic society. Voting is something Americans know a little bit about. Government leaders. "American Idol". Heck, even some school lunches. If passion or effectiveness takes part in the equation, we want to give our opinion on the issue.

In all but one of the country's major sports, we the people get to choose who lights up the court or field in a number of all-star extravaganzas. Every year, sport lovers voice their opinion, and every year, questions are raised about whether we know what we're doing.

It's not that each decision for a yearly "dream" team is inconceivable. Usually, there's just one (maybe two) decision(s) that makes others, especially in the media, wonder why people out of the know get to highlight a button on some electronic ballot. (The Rory Fitzpatrick campaign for the NHL All-Star Game didn't help our cause, even though it was extremely hilarious).

The 2007 NBA All-Star voting is no different. For the most part, the votes came out fine. Perennial favorites have not disappointed. And emerging stars Gilbert Arenas and Chris Bosh are getting their due. But do we actually do the best job of picking the best talent?

Of course we don't. This is all a popularity contest. Sometimes, though, the fans have to step back and put more deserving individuals into "our" games, or at least give them a little more dap. I picked a few hard-working players from each conference that might fit the mold. Some will still get to Vegas for the game, but shouldn't they have been higher up on the list?

Dirk Nowitzki, fourth among West forwards

It's hard to argue that Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan don't deserve starter status. Both are putting up their normal ridiculous numbers. However, the German's 25.3 points and 9.6 rebounds per game weren't good enough to put him over the more explosive Carmelo Anthony and his 15-game "vacation." Anthony is always in the discussion, but I would think that Dallas' record would garner a little more respect.

Steve Nash, fourth among West guards

The Phoenix Suns point guard doesn't need the recognition. Like his former teammate in Dallas, he should make the exhibition. And it's tough to replace Kobe Bryant or Tracy McGrady in the hearts of fans. But two straight MVP awards, 11.7 assists a contest (tops in the league), and the role of cornerstone for the best team in the league should push the guy past A.I.

Carlos Boozer, 10th among West forwards

Utah has trailed off from their blazing start to the season. Then again, they are still leading the Northwest Division thanks to Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a guy averaging about 22 points and 12 boards each time out (that'd be Boozer). Sure, the division's a tad weak, but you're putting those numbers behind Shane Battier and Pau Gasol? Come on.

Zach Randolph, outside the top 10 among West forwards

I've heard quite a bit of sports talk support for the Blazers veteran since moving to Portland. Turns out the chatter contains some good points. I know he's had a couple off-court problems. I get that he's stuck in the land of forgotten, literally (Oregon) and figuratively (on one of the worst franchises in the Association). To that I say, "Are you serious?" Close to 24 and 10 a game and he's not even voted in the top 10?! It's a bit sad.

Richard Hamilton, 10th among East guards

The former all-star is having another solid season in Detroit (23.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.7 apg). The Pistons aren't as dominant, though, as they have been recently. That could make him vanish in the eyes of some fans. In fact, it's made his stock sink enough among the voting public that he was lower than Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis. But wait, there's even more madness in New York itself.

Jamal Crawford, outside the top 10 among East guards

Speaking of the Knicks' backcourt, there's an even bigger crime against value. With all the big money, fist-swinging ballers inside Madison Square Garden, Crawford has actually shined on the court. He gets more boards than Starbury (3.2 to 2.8), more dimes than the Franchise (4.6 to 4.1), and pulls down 17.6 on the scoreboard. Yet, he's not even on the radar, while his more notorious running mates are.

Caron Butler, ninth among East forwards

The team from the District goes as Arenas goes. However, Butler has been a huge asset to the Wizards' success. Averages of 20.8 (points) and 8.0 (rebounds) still placed him behind more familiar names like Paul Pierce and Grant Hill. While Hill's comeback story continues to impress, he's not the player he used to be. And with Pierce being injured for a significant portion of the first half, this may have been the year to show a little more love to the former UConn star.

Dwight Howard, second among East centers

The most glaring oversight of this all-star electorate is easily Shaquille O'Neal. Over the last decade-plus, Diesel has proven his worth as the superstar center of the NBA. But who knew he could be downright magical? In the span of six games (through Jan. 27th), he said abracadabra and convinced voters to place him in the middle of all-star Sunday.

Isn't it funny how things come full circle? Enter a new stud in the paint from Orlando. He's got the numbers (17.1 ppg, 12.3 rpg), the record (27-13), and the right to take the torch from the former Magic attraction. His numbers should merit a spot on the bench, but it's a shame that fans are stuck in the past.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 10:13 PM | Comments (0)

January 30, 2007

Top 10 Worst Super Bowl QBs

This week, everyone has a list of the worst Super Bowl quarterbacks in history. This probably won't be the first one you've read. The reason it's worth reading is because I won't be going solely by results in the Super Bowl itself.

This exercise has been inspired, obviously, by Rex Grossman. He had a rough season and he hasn't done anything noteworthy in his professional career. This list ranks Super Bowl quarterbacks on their careers, their performance during the season they went to the Super Bowl, and their play in the big game itself — in that order.

Grossman hasn't even played in the Super Bowl yet. His name is part of this discussion because of his limited NFL accomplishments and his wildly inconsistent 2006 season. Grossman finished the year with a lower passer rating than Michael Vick, Alex Smith, and Matt Leinart. He was more than 10 points behind J.P. Losman, and almost 30 behind Peyton Manning.

In this column, I'm judging quarterbacks mostly the same way we're judging Grossman right now: by their accomplishments — or lack thereof — entering the game. Grossman isn't on the list — let's wait at least a week or two before passing judgment there — and no one appears more than once (cough, Craig Morton, cough). I only used starters, so you won't find Norris Weese or Steve Grogan listed here.

10. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), XL

Let's start the list with a winner. Big Ben, obviously, is not a bad quarterback (at least, he wasn't until the motorcycle crash and the appendectomy). But he's early in his career and doesn't have the numbers of a Chris Chandler or Drew Bledsoe, and he really stunk it up in the Super Bowl. Despite coming out a winner, Ben completed fewer than half of his passes, throwing for two interceptions and just 123 yards.

9. Neil O'Donnell (PIT), XXX

O'Donnell had a pretty decent career — in fact, he holds the NFL record for lowest interception percentage. And that's the last good thing you'll read about Neil O'Donnell in this article. As quarterback of the Steelers, O'Donnell gave away Super Bowl XXX, with four sacks and three interceptions, of the "what color jersey is that?" variety.

8. Vince Ferragamo (LA Rams), XIV

Forced into action after Pat Haden was injured, Ferragamo led the Rams to Super Bowl XIV despite throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. He didn't have a great game — 212 yards, one interception — but against a Steel Curtain defense, it wasn't terrible, either. Ferragamo went on to a blah career, throwing for 3,000 yards twice, ending his career with a negative TD/INT differential, and never making a Pro Bowl.

7. Stan Humphries (SD), XXIX

Humphries had a decent but unremarkable career, a decent but unremarkable 1994 season, and a decent but unremarkable Super Bowl. He threw a touchdown and passed for almost 300 yards, but it took him 49 attempts, and he tossed two picks along the way.

6. Craig Morton (DEN), XII

Morton wasn't a bad quarterback. You don't play 18 years in the NFL by being a loser. Morton had several fine seasons, and 1979 was one of them. In Super Bowl XII, though, Morton had probably the worst game of any player in Super Bowl history, throwing as many interceptions as completions (4) and compiling a 0.0 passer rating. Morton also played very badly in Super Bowl V.

5. Joe Kapp (MIN), IV

Kapp played well in 1969, making the Pro Bowl, but it was a brief flash of glory in an otherwise undistinguished four-year career. Kapp threw at least seven more interceptions than touchdowns in all but one season of his career, including a remarkable 3:17 TD:INT ratio in his final season. That makes Grossman look like Joe Montana.

4. Kerry Collins (NYG), XXXV

Collins has played well enough to stick around in the NFL for a lot longer than four years, and he's thrown for over 30,000 yards, but he remains one of the worst quarterbacks ever to make it to the big game, and his performance against the Ravens was among the worst in Super Bowl history, with four sacks, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 7.1.

3. Trent Dilfer (BAL), XXXV

Dilfer's Ravens pounded Collins and the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV, but that was in spite of Dilfer, not because of him. Few quarterbacks have been consistently mediocre for as long as Dilfer, and not even a handful have been less impressive in Super Bowl victories. Dilfer completed under half his passes, threw for only six first downs, and made several memorably bad throws that missed open receivers.

2. Tony Eason (NE), XX

Eason had a short and mediocre career, a wretched 1985 season, and the least productive showing from a quarterback in Super Bowl history. Eason didn't complete a single pass before he was benched for Grogan, going 0-for-6 with three sacks and a fumble.

1. David Woodley (MIA), XVII

In Woodley's six-season career, he seldom got off the bench long enough to have much impact, but when he did, it was usually negative: he retired with a 65.7 passer rating and 30% more interceptions than touchdowns. In the 1982 Super Bowl season, he threw for just 1,080 yards — that's weak even in a strike season — and threw eight picks against just five TDs.

In Super Bowl XVII, facing a Washington team known more for its offense than its defense, Woodley managed only two first downs. He completed only four of his 14 passes, didn't reach 100 yards, and was benched for the equally useless Don Strock. No matter what Grossman does on Sunday, I'm pretty sure Woodley is the worst starting quarterback in Super Bowl history.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 10:14 PM | Comments (1)

Madness in the Making: Part I

As the clock ticks toward February, March Madness is no longer on the far-off horizon. Teams are down to their final 10 regular season games, give or take a few. For those on the upper rungs of the power ladder, seeding is now the question. For those with some carnage on their resume, the time is now — shine or be left behind.

Everywhere you look, there are teams surging toward the finish line, a few more starting to fall behind, and a few that could go either way.

This week, we'll focus on teams from the Pac-10, SEC, Colonial, and Missouri Valley conferences. Next week, we'll take a look at the Big East, ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten.

Three on the Way Up

Vanderbilt (15-6, 5-2 SEC East, RPI: 58)

On a four-game streak that includes a 21-point beating of Alabama, plus road wins over Kentucky and LSU, the Commodores are no flash in the pan. Though they started with a resounding thud — a home loss to Furman dropped them to 1-3 — Kevin Stallings has nine players who have played all 21 games and average more than 12 minutes per game. Their top six scorers are juniors or seniors. They are fourth in the SEC in offense (78.7 ppg), third in three-point shooting (39%), second in assists per game (17.62), third in turnover margin (+3.1), and first in free-throw percentages (72%).

If there is a worry for Stallings, it's on defense. Vandy is only 10th in scoring defense (69.2 ppg allowed) and 10th in rebounding margin (-0.6). They also don't block many shots, last in the league at 2.95 per game. Then again, they out-rebounded LSU 37-31 and held the Tigers to 32% from the floor. (Though that's becoming increasingly common for the fading Tigers.)

Vanderbilt probably won't beat Florida in Gainesville on Wednesday, but have a return engagement against the Gators in Nashville on Feb. 17. They also have a home-and-home with South Carolina, home dates with Georgia, Kentucky, and Arkansas, and visits to Tennessee and Mississippi State. A 20-win season is certainly within reach, as is its first NCAA tournament appearance since a Sweet 16 run in 2004.

VCU (19-3, 11-0 Colonial, RPI: 45)

With all the attention given to George Mason last year and Drexel earlier this year, it's only fair the same spotlight be given to the Virginia Commonwealth Rams, perhaps the most improbable three-loss team in the nation.

Two weeks ago, the knock on the Rams was that their gaudy record was built against a schedule bereft of the Colonial's best. Then the Rams went out and beat Old Dominion, George Mason on the road, and the highlight of their season — a 75-68 win at Drexel. The Rams get their only chance at Hofstra (at least in the regular season) on Wednesday.

Led by head coach Anthony Grant, a man who knows winning basketball coming off 12 years as Billy Donovan's top assistant, VCU has three legit scoring options with B.A. Walker (15.9 ppg, 42% from three), Jesse Pellot-Rosa (14.4 ppg, 43% from three) and Eric Maynor (14.3 ppg, 5.9 apg). They lead the league in scoring (76.2 ppg), turnover margin (+5.8, a huge margin and more than double No. 2 Old Dominion), free throw percentage (72%), field goal percentage (46%), and three-point shooting (39%).

An interesting question is whether the Rams will land an at-large bid if they should fall in the conference tournament (still a very real possibility with Drexel and Hofstra in the bracket). They don't have any marquis wins out of conference (Houston and UAB are their best two), and have a loss to Appalachian State on their record. They do get to host a Bracket Busters game against Bradley, which could help their cause if they get the win.

Stanford (14-5, 6-3 Pacific 10, RPI: 30)

With Sunday's seven-point win over UCLA, plus non-conference wins over Texas Tech and Virginia on the road, the Cardinal are quickly approaching lock status (if they're not already there). Perhaps the most interesting stat in the box score from the UCLA game is that the Lopez twins, Brook and Robin, combined for only 13 points and, more importantly, only 2 blocks. The Cardinal still won, riding the hot shooting of guard Anthony Goods (20 points, 4-of-7 from three) and forward Lawrence Hill (22 points, 8-of-10 from the field).

But it still comes back to the Lopez twins and what they've done for this team. When you can rebound (second in rebounding margin at +5.7 and first in blocked shots at 4.88 per game), everybody else becomes that much better. Goods and freshman guard Landry Fields look like they should still be playing junior high ball, but they've given Stanford the trademark grittiness previously brought by guys like Mark Madsen, Arthur Less, Chris Hernandez, and Nick Robinson.

There are some warts for Trent Johnson's team, though. They are last in the conference in turnover margin (-2.12) and are in the middle-to-bottom in most offensive categories. A lot of that is left over from their rough beginning, and they are obviously playing much better of late, but they need to continue to progress if they want to do more than just make the tournament.

Three on the Way Down

Arizona (14-6, 5-4 Pacific 10, RPI: 6)

As an alum, it kills me to say this, especially on the heels of what I just wrote about Stanford, but the Wildcats play soft. I don't know if it's a lack of balls or brains, but they act as though they still belong to the old Pac-10, where you could get away with mediocre defense. But this isn't the old Pac-10. The league is becoming more and more about physical and mental toughness. Who can get punched in the mouth, smile with bloody teeth, then start swinging back? Arizona has consistently showed itself lacking in that area, culminating with Saturday's pathetic non-showing against North Carolina.

The absence of Kirk Walters has certainly been felt, as has the lack of progress from sophomores Mohamed Tangara and Fendi Onobun (plus J.P. Prince, who is transferring to Tennessee). Freshman forward Jordan Hill has stepped up over the past few games, but he's nowhere near the polished player he will become in the next three-plus years. He's still susceptible to stupid fouls, and can't be trusted to be a consistent force on offense.

Arizona is still going to make the tournament. They are still going to win 20 games, and will still be the higher seed when the madness begins. But if they get stuck playing a seeded-too-low team from the Colonial or Mountain West, it could be yet another quick exit for the Wildcats.

Drexel (16-5, 8-3 Colonial, RPI: 55)

The biggest difference between teams from the major conferences and teams from the mid-majors is the lack of wiggle room for the mid-majors. If Marquette looses a few, then get things turned around, they'll be fine. But when a team from the Colonial does it, it's lights out.

The Dragons were everybody's mid-major darling (mine, as well) after their Villanova/Syracuse/Temple road sweep in December. A 4-0 start in the conference had them making national headlines. Then they lost to Hofstra in a classic OT defensive battle. Then they lost to Old Dominion by 27. Then, after three straight wins against conference non-powers, they lost at home to VCU on Saturday. Just like that, their at-large hopes are dead.

I still believe in Bruiser Flint and his team defense, but they've fallen to third in the Colonial and are going to need to beat the conference's best before they can be considered a legitimate threat to make NCAA noise in March. They scored in the Bracket Busters pairings announcement with a visit to Creighton. A win would be huge. If they don't make the NCAA tournament, I'll probably pick them to win the NIT.

LSU (13-7, 2-4 SEC West, RPI: 74)

Losers of three straight, the Tigers' at-large hopes are quickly approaching the point of no return. They have scored 52, 53, and 54 points in consecutive losses to Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Georgia, and are next-to-last in the SEC in scoring offense (68.8), 10th in FG% (44%), and 10th in three-point shooting (35%). Their only big win is over Texas A&M back on Dec. 5, and I'm not sure that's going to hold up against an average-to-below average conference record.

If the Tigers have one thing going for them, it's that they don't have any horrible losses, though the Wichita State loss is somewhat more damaging due to the Shockers' MVC struggles. With 10 games remaining in SEC play, including Florida at home on Feb. 24, there is still time for a late run. RPI aside, an above-.500 record in the SEC and at least one or two wins in the SEC tournament should have the Tigers on the cusp of another bid. But take a few steps back anywhere along the way, and it's NIT time on the Bayou.

Could Go Either Way

Alabama (15-5, 2-4 SEC West, RPI: 34)

The obvious answer to the Tide's recent woes (losers of three-of-four, four-of-six) is the health of Ronald Steele, who is gutting out a bad knee game by painful game, and the terrible personal tragedies suffered by Jermareo Davidson (deaths of his brother and long-time girlfriend within weeks of each other). That's a lot for a group of kids to handle, and it could very well be the cause of their lost focus, giving up monster halves to Arkansas (49-20 first half in a 27-point loss), Vanderbilt (54-37 first half in a 21-point loss), Georgia (50-35 first half in a two-point win), and Auburn (46-21 second half in a 24-point loss).

Unfortunately for the Tide, extenuating circumstances don't change the numbers in the W and L columns. They are by no means dead in the water, but coach Mark Gottfried has to figure something out. Steele's knee isn't getting any better, and Davidson's emotional roller coaster has to have him exhausted.

Missouri Valley

My comments last week on their overall standing in the national power structure aside, this is one of the toughest conferences to figure out. At the top is Southern Illinois. At the bottom are Illinois State and Drake. As for everybody else, it's entirely up in the air. And with only seven games remaining, every night out is crucial.

Creighton (14-7, 8-3 MVC, RPI: 35) is tied with SIU in the standings, and would seem to have the second-best shot at an at-large if they don't win the auto-bid. Northern Iowa (15-6, 6-4, RPI: 54) have lost two in a row and four of six. They just lost to Drake by 13. Missouri State (15-7, RPI: 39) is tied with Bradley (15-8, RPI: 40) at 6-5, and just beat the Braves on Saturday to break a three-game losing streak and save their season. The Bears travel to Drake on Wednesday and Indiana State on Sunday, while the Braves host Creighton on Wednesday.

Wichita State (14-8, 5-6, RPI: 61) passed up the opportunity to roll over and die by beating Drake and Evansville, and now have a chance to get back to .500 at Northern Iowa on Tuesday. Win that game, and the Shockers are right back in this thing. Meanwhile, Evansville (12-6, 5-6, RPI: 92) and Indiana State (11-9, 4-6, RPI: 94) refuse to go away, though they will eventually.

So there you go.

(As mentioned above Creighton drew Drexel in the Bracket Busters series. Missouri State drew Winthrop, Southern Illinois a road trip to Butler, Northern Iowa a road trip to Nevada, Wichita State a home date against Appalachian State, and Bradley a visit to VCU. If the Missouri Valley wants its critics to shut up, Feb. 16 and 17 is a great opportunity to make it happen.)

Washington (13-7, 3-6 Pacific 10, RPI: 72)

Like Wichita State, the Huskies refused to roll over and die, sweeping the Oregon schools this past weekend (impressive even if Aaron Brooks didn't dress for the Ducks). With Arizona State on Thursday and a reeling Arizona team on Saturday, a sweep in the desert is not entirely out of the question.

The Huskies have the talent, but haven't yet put it together. Despite Spencer Hawes and Jon Brockman forming a dominant inside presence that has propelled Washington to a +9.8 rebounding margin, they rank dead last in scoring defense and only seventh in blocks. One reason for the defensive weakness is Ryan Appleby, who can nail the three (44%), but is an extreme liability as a perimeter defender. With guys like Brandon Roy or Nate Robinson around, Lorenzo Romar could hide Appleby, but not now.

For the Huskies to really make a run, Justin Dentmon is going to have to continue his resurgence from a horrible beginning to his sophomore season. Against the Oregon schools, he scored 41 (13-of-24 from the floor, 15-of-18 from the line) with 13 rebounds, 10 assists, and 5 steals. He has to be able to take control of the Huskies on the perimeter if they are going to take back their momentum from their 10-1 start.

With the Arizona trip, then the Bay Area schools and Wazzu at home, then at Pittsburgh, at the Oregon schools, and at home to the L.A. schools to finish the season, there's more than enough meat on the table for Washington to save the year. The question is whether the dogs have enough bite to take advantage.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer, blogger and communications specialist living on the outskirts of St. Louis. For daily news and notes from the world of sports, politics and beyond, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 9:59 PM | Comments (1)

Barbaro LIVES!

It is a sad week for planet Earth. Barbaro has been euthanized. I know what you're thinking, so save the classless glue jokes. I don't want to hear about Barbaro's inability to out-run death with only 2.5 good legs or about how his future is now in scrap booking supplies. There are too many people hurting for cruel jokes. Fortunately, I have good news for his legions of fans. Wipe away your tears, because ... Barbaro is alive!

Why would I share this with the legions of Barbaro fans? After all, they have chimed in with their thoughts of me, ranging from someone praying I get hit and killed by a semi-truck to a flight attendant who insinuated I was the worst person she's heard of since 9/11. Here's a brief sampling:

Go f*ck yourself you heartless bastard! - John

You are pathetic. Your parents raised an idiot, which says a lot about them. - Tim

How do you dare call Barbaro a media whore. Your a pitiful human, and have a mean hearted attitude. Get out of media business. You should get a job working as a janitor at Burger King. Maybe they would accept you, but I doubt it. Your a first class asshole, and I hope whatever you try to achieve fails. – Karen

Yet, during my time on the Barbaro beat (this is now my third column on it), I've softened somewhat. I learned that this is a horse that people really, really, REALLY care about. Their obsession isn't something to poke fun at or to ridicule. I could've kept this to myself and left them to grieve, but that's just not who I am. Rejoice, animal fans — Barbaro lives.

How do I know this? Because I saw him this afternoon, with my very own eyes. I am 100% certain it was him. I was driving on a highway in SE Ohio and, in the distance, I saw Barbaro. He was trotting around a fenced-in field with several of his new friends, enjoying life away from the spotlight. He was completely healed and running without even a slight limp. It was truly miraculous.

Now, this stunning revelation does beg the question — why did he fake his own death? I have two theories.

The first is that he merely longed to escape his lunatic fans. Anytime he so much as sneezed, thousands of supporters would rain their prayers, well-wishes, and ballads on him via his message board. At this point, he had more crayon drawings by 3-year-old artists and poems from lonely, 55-year-old women than he knew what to do with. He couldn't even sell them on eBay (given the fact that he's a horse and, as we all know, regrettably, horses aren't afforded the same purchasing power that humans are, so he couldn't buy a computer).

My second theory is that the expectations would've been too much for him to handle if he fully recovered. He knew that if he was able to run again, he would draw non-stop comparisons to planet Earth's other great runner, Lance Armstrong. The only problem is that Barbaro knew he could never win another Kentucky Derby, let alone three or four more. He could never reach the bar that Lance set and probably didn't want to live the rest of his life in that shadow.

After all, Armstrong came back from cancer to dominate the Tour de France, so it was easier for Barbaro to let the world know he had "died" from a broken leg (when in reality the only problem a broken leg presents is being too selective when letting admirers sign your cast). He had peaked athletically, so it made sense for him to step out of the spotlight.

You may not believe me now, but you will someday. Maybe you will see Barbaro frolicking in a pasture near you or with a smile on his face riding a Jet-ski in the Caribbean. Maybe you will encounter him at a midwestern diner, accompanied by Elvis, and you will just know that he has fooled us all. Regardless, rest comfortably tonight knowing that the greatest horse that ever lived is still out there ... somewhere.

It's either that or the alternative — God got so annoyed by all the prayers for Barbaro that he decided to intervene. You can make up your own mind, but I know what I saw.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 9:37 PM | Comments (0)

January 29, 2007

Lesson Learned From Bowl Season

Three weeks after the last Gator danced off into the night in Glendale, there is nothing for the college football addict to do but salivate over spring ball, signing day, and the buildup of August practice before the college football season breathes life again. They are left scouring the Internet for a new preseason poll, as if the next expert will say something the last didn't think of in his wild guess of which yet-to-be-fully-assembled team will be better than the other.

I will not waste your time with such a stab at a top 25 more premature and unfounded than a Mike Nifong accusation. And unfortunately, I can't create a time vortex to carry us into fall. But I can offer momentary relief after the first of two full weeks of painfully redundant Super Bowl hype. (Seriously, by the end of it, people just want the game over. People who love football.)

I can tell you, however, with the dust finally settled, what December and January taught us about college football:

1. First and foremost, Florida was the best team this year. Terrifyingly fast defense, brutal schedule, veteran quarterback, stud freshman quarterback in a running back's body, and another stud freshman that can out-run sound. Now, no one will ever be able to explain to me why Ohio State's linebackers felt the need to play Downey-soft zones; eight-yard slants shouldn't be completed underneath seven defenders. And it wasn't as if Florida was burning the Buckeyes deep, with a long reception of 20 yards. But that said, it was an impressive display by the Gators, and Urban Meyer has officially created a machine down in Gainesville that may finally separate from the masses of quality SEC programs.

2. The only team that has recruited better than Florida in recent years has been USC. And after the Trojans took Michigan to the woodshed during the second half in Pasadena, anyone with those three pesky letters scrawled onto their schedule should be as terrified as ever. The already-stout defense loses next to nothing. The offense has holes at center and wide receiver, but plenty of talent on deck. And John David Booty comes back with pressure at quarterback from the talented Mark Sanchez, despite having a very solid season.

The Trojans will start the season No. 1, and rightly so. A more road-heavy schedule is the one downside for 2007. Losing offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin might stunt the offense momentarily. But not having rookie quarterbacks and running backs with training wheels should make up the difference. (See: scoring machine during Norm Chow's first year gone in 2005.) And opposition might never find the end zone against this team next year anyways, so it might not matter.

3. Coach Chris Petersen has a pair of cantaloupes, and it rubbed off on the rest of the team (figuratively, of course). Boise State's win was simply surreal. I really don't have to say more. If you just crawled out from under a rock and are still unaware of what happened at this point, go find someone who taped the game. Now.

Oh, and sideline reporter Chris Myers flapping his big mouth before Ian Johnson's proposal to his girlfriend was painful to watch, like a sitcom scene so incredibly awkward you squirm in embarrassment for people you know don't really exist. As he blurted, "And now I will let you propose to your girlfriend," I swear I could hear all of America slapping its heads in unison. I honestly hope he lost sleep over that faux pas.

4. Notre Dame can't win bowl games when the media keeps overrating it and bowl promoters keep putting the Irish in games they have no business being in. There is a reason they have lost nine straight, seven of them by at least two touchdowns. Every top-20 team that played them dismantled them. Is anyone paying any attention? And although Charlie Weis is bringing in some top talent, virgin blood at quarterback will single-handedly keep them from being elite next year, to say nothing of a secondary that can't cover senior citizens and other positions hit hard by the graduation of 35 seniors.

5. Five-and-oh. Rag on it all you want, at the very least, it is underrated — the Big East was the big winner of the bowl season. Louisville and West Virginia were true top-15 teams. Rutgers probably was, too. South Florida has quietly built a reputable program, and Cincinnati was no cupcake. Don't get me wrong, they are still probably the fifth best conference at best, just ahead of the ACC. (Heck, the WAC might be better than the ACC). The bowl slate was not as rigorous as some other conferences', so the record doesn't tell the whole story. But this isn't the patsy conference everyone thinks it is. And even though Bobby Petrino fled Louisville, that Rich Rodriguez and Greg Schiano stayed loyal to West Virginia and Rutgers in the face of serious job opportunities grants the conference even more legitimacy.

6. The Big 12 and Big Ten, meanwhile, had their hats in hand, losing 10 of 15 bowl games between them. Wisconsin, Penn State, and Oklahoma State wins over the SEC were the only thing either conference had to celebrate. Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue, Texas A&M, and Kansas State were all drilled (by Florida, USC, Maryland, Cal, and Rutgers, respectively). Texas and Texas Tech got the other two wins against the Big Ten's Iowa and Minnesota, so the two conferences' collective record in games against the rest was 3-13. And the jury is still out as to whether it was worse for Texas Tech to let Minnesota jump all over them 38-7, or for Minnesota to let Tech come back and win 44-41, riding 31 unanswered points in the final 20 minutes into overtime.

7. The SEC is the best conference in the country. I have ragged on it for years for its pathetic out-of-conference scheduling, but somewhere deep down, I know that no conference is deeper. But the gap still isn't as big as some believe, and certainly isn't as big as Ohio State's goose egg in the title game. The only team the SEC beat by more than a score in bowl games other than the Suckeyes (different from the Buckeyes that played in the regular season) was Notre Dame, and we already went over what a feat that is.

They aren't playing a better brand of football, they just have a larger pool of teams with a healthy dose of talent. Some argue that every time an SEC team has been in the BCS Championship Game, they have won it. But look at the SEC champs that didn't. USC or Texas would have throttled Georgia much worse than West Virginia did last year. Auburn may have given the Trojans a better run than Oklahoma in 2004, but no one would have stopped USC that year (before that defense fled to the NFL for 2005). Georgia was simply not a national title contender in 2002. And as if anyone could beat Miami in 2001? The SEC is, and has been, good. It is not dominant. And I will continue ragging on its offenses and out-of-conference schedules.

8. Darren McFadden will win the Heisman next year. He might have been a better choice this year. Just as it was with Reggie Bush, when you watch him run, you just feel like the Razorbacks are cheating. And although McFadden was hobbled for the game, the Capital One Bowl taught us that anyone who can make Felix Jones second fiddle is special.

There you go, eight things learned from the last month or so of college football. Of course, eight happens to be the number of teams many would put into the playoffs. You know, those playoffs that are never coming. Again, I provide a small pittance to fill that gaping hole in your soul with a few scenarios some of us would wish we could have seen, with the bowl results used as a general predictor of events:

Eight-Team Playoffs, BCS Standings

No. 1 Ohio State, face-plant in Glendale and all, was better than Oklahoma. Sadly, a playoff costs us the magic of No. 8 Boise State's miracle finish. The Buckeyes don't suffer the 51-day layoff with a game in December, and come out sharper. Boise State surprises, keeping it a close game into the fourth, but Troy Smith handles the Bronco defense and slips the Buckeyes past. Florida is too much for the Big Ten this year, as we all saw in Glendale, so they dispatch No. 7 Wisconsin.

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 6 Louisville is an intriguing matchup. I'll take Louisville in the upset before being derailed by Florida. LSU and USC might be even more intriguing, and merits more thought because either could beat Ohio State. USC has lost one out-of-conference game in four years despite playing two Big 12 champs, an SEC runner-up, eventual ACC champ, and a Big Ten champ and runner-up. It has also won four straight against the SEC, so they get the nod. Besides, Tiger fans...

Four-Team "And One" Playoff

Ohio State falls to LSU, Florida takes out Michigan. LSU/Florida in the title game. This is the system that should be. USC should not have a title shot with two shaky losses, even though they can play with anyone in the country. I love that every regular season game means so much, where games are never rendered meaningless by watered-down playoffs existent in every other sport where a third of the teams make a tournament to crown a champion, blemishes and all.

The UCLA-Doesn't-Beat-USC System

USC beats Ohio State for national title. Florida cries self to sleep after winning Sugar Bowl and getting nothing. World ain't fair. Luckily, it was the last couple seasons.

Old Traditional System

USC beats Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Buckeyes exit stage left from national title picture. Florida goes off to the Sugar Bowl to play Notre Dame. Gators pound Irish mercilessly. Louisville plays Wake Forest in the Orange, wins 24-13 again. Oklahoma has a Fiesta with Michigan. Michigan beats Oklahoma. Michigan feels it should have as much right to a title as Florida, since each lost just once to a tough conference rival. Louisville, confused, can't get any respect as a comparable one-loss team. Boise State, stuck in the Liberty Bowl, beats West Virginia in a wild shootout, secures a perfect season. No one seems to notice. Fight between Michigan, Florida, and Louisville ends with an earthquake in Los Angeles, tsunami on the eastern seaboard, and volcano eruptions in Washington. Complete chaos briefly reigns before Earth collapses into itself and explodes.

Maybe the BCS isn't quite pure evil after all...

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 10:31 PM | Comments (3)

Murray Wins Fickle English Hearts

Ever since St. George slayed that fearsome fire-breathing dragon, we English have worshipped our sporting heroes with near fundamentalist fervour.

Sadly for a nation so hungry for heroes, 2006 was a crushing reminder of how few we have. Uninspired in the World Cup in Germany, under-prepared on our Australian cricket tour, and unrecognizable at Twickenham (the home of rugby), our three-pronged team assault on planet sport ended in miserable failure. Sports Personality of the Year — showjumper Zara Phillips? Exactly.

With "annus sporting horribilis" finally over, Andy Murray stepped into the Melbourne sun last month to help the media banish dispair under a big rock and usher in the class of 2007. Sven who? Freddie who?

Ironically, like St. George back in the day, Murray isn't even English. On a sporting landscape where the four corners of Britain engage largely in a bitter and liberal hatred of each other, the new hero of English tennis has his own tartan. Isn't it amazing how flexible the boundaries of national identity become when we need a champion?

"He could be a bigger star than Wayne Rooney," said Mark Petchey some time ago.

Ultimately, he was right. Murray is already one of the most marketable talents in this country. Alongside him in a list of this year's potential dragon slayers are Lewis Hamilton of formula one racing, Theo Walcott of Arsenal, and the rejuvenated running machine Paula Radcliffe. The gulf left by David Beckham beckons.

For prospective sports stars around the globe, England must seem an increasingly tempting option for citizenship. Where some countries reward only achievement, little more than passport and potential can earn some serious money on this island. Ask Greg Rusedski.

And so, with the sense of national desperation tangible, will the real hero of English sport please stand up — wherever you're from. Here's looking to 2007, the year of dead dragons.

Posted by Will Tidey at 10:04 PM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2007

Vulgar Truth About Televised Sports

It was Wednesday evening, and I couldn't have been more excited for a night of escapist television.

What glorious experiences would that visionary of cable excitement VERSUS offer me this evening?

Would it be that episode of "HOLY @#%*!" where they show horrifying crashes from the Tour de France? Would it be a new edition of "The Next Bite" in which Gary, Keith, and Chase pound world-class Walleye on Lake Ontario? Or perhaps the continuing adventures of the Yaxha Tribe on the syndicated version of "Survivor?"

My mind raced with anticipation, almost as fast as my fingers darted around the remote control as I surfed to channel ... well, whatever the hell channel VERSUS is located on my digital cable system.

Once I found it, did I get Tour de Crash? No. Did I get angling for Walleye? No. Did I get Jeff Probst in that dopey safari outfit? No.

I got something called "The 55th Annual National Hockey League All-Star Game."

They preempted professional bull-riding for this?

Okay, full disclosure: I could give a rat's ass about fishing and "Survivor" reruns. I'm a hockey fan of preposterously die-hard proportions, and was one of maybe 27 Americans who had made it a point to watch the All-Star Game (and were not related in any way to the players competing in it).

One of the primary reasons I tuned to VERSUS for the game was to see the unveiling of these new Reebok jerseys: a redesign that has created the biggest sports fan fashion panic since the Detroit Pistons turned teal (or whatever color it was supposed to be). For the uninitiated, messing with the traditional look of a hockey sweater is the biggest sin that could ever be committed against The Game. Seriously, the Vatican could come out tomorrow and mandate that all priests have to start wearing leather chaps and tube tops during mass and it would be less blasphemous than if the NHL did anything to augment the Red Wings' home solids.

Upon first glance, I have to say that much of our pregame consternation about this potential fashion faux pas was unfounded. They weren't an abomination ... yet. As all-star jerseys, they looked passable, even if the players looked a tad uncomfortable. A kid like Eric Staal of Carolina looked at home in the "Rollerball"-ish sweaters; 6-foot-9 defenseman Zdeno Chara, however, resembled a Turboman doll from "Jingle All the Way."

I'll hold off judgment on the new duds until:

1. I see what an Original Six jersey looks like in the new format; mess with the Blackhawks solids, and I'm going to find the culprit and scalp them myself.

2. I see what my 60-year-old father — with a belly shaped by at least 45 years of adult beverages — looks like in a Reebok sweater.

3. If conditions one and two are met, I know I can purchase one of these without having to sell one of my kidneys on the black market to meet the sticker price.

Jerseys aside, the All-Star Game continues to draw fan ire as usual, even if it was the first edition since before the lockout. Too much offense, they say, as if one of these glorified goal-hangers is going to throw a hit during an exhibition game. Too much nonsense taking away from the game itself, they say, as if an interview with Chuck Norris isn't more important than a goal being scored. (Chuck Norris doesn't watch the NHL All-Star Game ... the NHL All-Star Game watches Chuck Norris.) Worst rendition of the Canadian National Anthem we've ever heard, they say ... and yeah, it probably was.

Fans and media have once again slammed the use of the "rail cam" as being a failure, which is like calling the Toyota Prius a failure because we're still using gasoline. The rail cam — a hi-def camera placed above the near glass that followed players at ice level on a track — remains a work in progress, an extended experiment. Its operators obviously don't have a feel for the play, and the game's director didn't know when to integrate it. Joe Starkey, a sports writer for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, said that the NHL is trying too hard with the rail cam. "If it's the speed of the game you're trying to convey, forget it. Can't be done, except maybe in snippets, the way NASCAR captures the speed around turns with a static camera."

Nonsense. There were times when the rail cam showed flashes of brilliance — even Starkey gave props to an odd-man rush the cam caught involving Staal and an Eastern Conference teammate — and I want to see it used more. Any hockey fan who saw this invention implemented in the wonderful Heritage Classic game a few years back will agree that when it works, it conveys the speed and fury of live hockey better than any other television innovation has. Give it some time.

The VERSUS crew had the goalies mic'ed up during the all-star game, and the results were stunning. Listening to Dallas Stars keeper Marty Turco crack jokes, self-deprecate, and evaluate live plays was one of the most enjoyable all-star experiences I've ever had as a hockey fan. It brought an entirely human element to a game that, on television, can seem so very distant — due to everything from helmeted players to the separation between the crowd and the ice surface.

There was a rawness to it that appealed to me.

I want to hear more.

A while back, before the NHL settled into its current television configuration, I wrote a piece outlining why the league should consider having games on HBO:

"I actually had 'NHL on HBO' on the brain for a while — mainly because of the HDTV options, and the fact that we could finally hear the players sounding like Reggie Dunlop during the game."

Hearing Turco mic'ed up reminded me that the last, great undiscovered country in televised sports is broadcasting games that are completely uncensored, from the action on the field/court/ice to the commentary in the booth. Imagine watching a NHL game with both goaltenders mic'ed up, only their comments are captured throughout the entire game and without any regard for FCC regulation.

Hockey in the raw. Hockey in the real.

Turco's commentary was nice, but I want to hear an Olaf Kolzig temper tantrum. I want to hear Marty Brodeur mumbling expletives under his breath about being run by every opposing forward during a game. I want to hear the most interesting people on the ice — and make no mistake that goalies are second only to pitchers for outspoken eccentricity — speaking without restriction.

And it shouldn't end with hockey. We live in an ever-growing digital society, one that is allowing us to literally purchase entire seasons of sporting events on a pay-per-view basis. Soon, we might be offered the chance to select our own commentators and camera angles for every game. So why not an uncensored channel of sports commentary and audio, one that would allow fans to fully perceive the intensity on the field and hear the kind of frank discussion of the game we'd be having ourselves in a sports bar?

Could you imagine Denis Leary as an uncensored hockey analyst? Would you miss a NBA game with a booth filled with dudes who ball in some playground in the Bronx? Hell, this might even be a good reason to bring Dennis Miller back to the NFL.

Honest, uncensored commentary with honest, uncensored sounds of the game. I want to hear every taunt at the line of scrimmage. I want to hear every word two goons utter before dropping the gloves. I want to hear what the hell LeBron said to Gilbert Arenas at the free-throw line in last year's playoffs. Set up the Jason Bourne surveillance equipment, and let's start eavesdropping like we're all high-rolling season-ticket holders.

Is there room in this world for R-rated sports coverage? Would the leagues' corporate masters and calculating player-agents allow such candid behavior? Are we, as fans, ready to strip away the formalities and etiquette of professional sports and embrace their vulgar, seedy side?

I don't know about you, but holy @#%*!, am I ready...

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 7:52 PM | Comments (0)

Diary of an Interrupted NHL All-Star Game

That's it! It's over ... sort of.

Now that the first period has ended, I'm using the intermission to digest the opening stanza — the level of play, the first six goals (3-3 tie), the feeling out of one game only line-mates — and all the hoopla surrounding the 55th (sometimes annual) National Hockey League All-Star Game, coming to you from the Lonestar State, broadcasted by your friends at Comcast subsidiary, VS (Versus) Television.

The lockout two years ago and the 2006 Olympics Games in Torino forced the NHL to put its yearly display of raw talent on hiatus for a few seasons. So it's been a while since us countable NHL fans have had the opportunity to reaffirm why we follow this game so devoutly amid a generally scoffing sports-spectating public.

As a result of exhaustion from recent travel and a momentary lack of creativity, I've decided to steal directly from Bill Simmons' play book (a mighty fine one) and keep a running diary of the 2007 All-Star Game, in pseudo-real time.

So here we go. Sit back and try to convince yourself that reading about two (of three periods) is better than actually watching the entire game on your own.

Game on.

20:00 Second period face-off. 59:59 remaining.

19:23 Alexander Ovechkin's (OV) and Sidney Crosby's first passing exchange ... of period two. Finally (for the first time since the first), the two most electric players are on a line together — starters and line-mates all game. This is what hockey is about: two otherwise combative nemeses competing together for 60 minutes.

18:33 The San Jose Sharks' Patrick Marleau sends a laser past Marty Brodeur, but not past the post. Good goalie, better luck.

17:56 The Ottawa Senators' Dany Heatley (aka: Heater) blasts another shot off the post. Interestingly, Heater and Atlanta Thrasher Marion Hossa are on a line together; in 2005, the two were traded for each other between their current/former respective clubs.

17:33 Marleau gets interfered with, no penalty called. Will we have the first penalty in an All-Star Game since Sandis Ozolinsh's hooking penalty more than five years ago?

17:19 Marleau makes up for his missed goal with a trickler of a rebound past Brodeur. 4-3, West.

16:39 Is that a roughing penalty? Basement dweller Simon Gagne of the Philadelphia Flyers is getting the I-haven't-yet-realized-that-I'm-being-that-guy-in-an-all-star game treatment in the corner from the Calgary Flames' Deon Phaneuf — one of numerous second-year NHLers making a debut in Wednesday's game.

The New Jersey Devils' Brian Rafalski and Zdeno Chara from the Beantown Bruins are defensive partners. This is visually humorous considering Rafalski is one of the smallest defensemen (5'10") in the league and Chara is the tallest.

The level of play has been teetering upon the mediocre, thus far; players are not where their teammates thought they'd be — turnovers from blind passes abound.

14:41 Justin Williams scores his first career all-star goal from Carolina Hurricanes teammate Eric Staal and shifty New York Islander Jason Blake. Tied at 4.

14:13 Brendan Shanahan gets a tug from Nick Lidstrom to force a one-handed, breakaway attempt. The referees have ostensibly stuffed their whistles into their jocks.

The VS commercials with the Columbus Blue Jackets' Rick Nash and Joe Sakic from the Colorado Avalanche — where they inform you that, indeed, you are watching the 55th Annual NHL All-Star Game, presented by Dodge — are too forced. Perhaps instructing them to not stare at the cue cards would help hide their on-screen deficiency.

VS put microphones on goalies Brodeur and hometown starter Marty Turco. These are two solid choices, guys who are vocal regularly and aren't afraid to lighten up the discourse.

13:31 Chara uses his 6'9" backhand to snipe a goal past Calgary net-minder Mikka Kiprusoff. Is Goliath really a defenseman? 5-4, East.

12:46 Gagne fires a forced pass with no clear lane. There are more successful rink-long breakout passes in regular season games than tonight. Each zone is constantly clogged — back checking and defense in an all-star game? Disturbing.

12:23 San Jose's Joe Thornton — 2005-2006 Art Ross (most points) and Hart Trophy (MVP) winner — is trying desperately to hook up his regular linemate, 2005-2006 Maurice Richard Trophy (most goals) winner Jonathan Cheechoo. (Who, from here out, must be referred to as the Cheechoo Train because it's such a hilarious nickname in that totally-lame-glad-it's-not-mine sort of way.)

11:30 Minnesota Wild winger Brian Rolston scores on a rocket that tears off Bordeur's mic. Wow. West evens the game at 5.

The puck won't sit; it keeps knuckling. Geography may be thawing the pucks too quickly, consequently pucks expand, don't lay flat and become bouncier (especially when they hit deep ruts in the late period ice).

9:20 Nash burns Brodeur, who is getting owned this period, with a smooth deke, using his patience to extend beyond Brodeur's reach. West on top, 6-5.

8:26 Chicago Blackhawk Martin Havlat just buried a one timer from Nash. Brodeur is continually getting his ass kicked. (That is an extremely difficult sentence to read as one of Brodeur's die-hard fans. Oh well, it's the regular season that counts!) 7-5, West.

7:44 Brodeur throws the Ferris wheel stop on Cheechoo. The Train has not left the station. Marty's first highlight reel save.

In case you didn't catch the news during the TV timeouts, the new KFC Buffalo Chicken Snacker is only a dollar. Mmm, smells like deep-fried gluttony.

7:13 St. Louis Blue Bill Guerin gets a point in his return to Big D as he hooks up Phoenix Coyote Yanic Perreault for his second goal of the tilt. West lead building, 8-5.

6:28 OV is making his presence felt. He has been all over the ice all night so far, he puts home a rebound for his first career all-star goal. East slowly chipping the lead away, 6-8.

I have now been told twice that Gordie Howe is in attendance at tonight's game.

2:53 Brodeur stones Perrault — no hat trick yet. Last time that many goals were scored was 2003; Dany Heatley scored four, dished an assist, and went home with the MVP award vehicle.

2:06 The Dallas crowd is waiting to erupt in exaltation for former Star Bill Guerin — that's what leaving on good terms gets you.

1:02 Rolston. Again. Past Brodeur. Again. Slap shot from the top of the left face-off circle. Again. Brodeur: worst all-star game performance. Apparently, the defense took the period off.

The West leads the East, 9-6, after two periods of play.

Interviews in the locker room reveal the players' personal equipment (gloves, helmets, etc.) they use during regular season games and all-star warm-ups hanging in their stalls. Some of the erratic passing and lack of puck handling precision can possibly be attributed to the new RBK Hockey uniforms (gloves, lids, jerseys, and shells) and their restrictiveness.

Hockey players are a superstitious, routine-adhering bunch that are often used to using their own well worn, foul-smelling equipment — loose jerseys, broken-in gloves, and helmets that have taken the shape of their bodies over time. Having very little warm-up time to get used to the all-star unis, the players may be inhibited in their comfort, movement, and stellar play. Regardless, like true virtuosos, these guys are still making numerous breathtaking plays in less than perfect conditions, like true all-stars.

The Commentators: Keith Jones, Brian Engblom, Mark Messier, and Bill Clement — knowledgeable, well-spoken former players who can discuss the intricacies of the game from an experienced perspective.

Mike "Doc" Emrick, the guy is priceless. He calls games with an unfettered style unparalleled by any other NHL announcer. He knows hockey, he knows the players, and he knows the league, all before the game starts and we know it by how accurate and clear he recites the play-by-play. Well done, Doc.

Kudos to the VS casting crew (save for the inclusion of Eddie O).

Now, onward, the third period has arrived.

20:00 Turco starts for the West. My fantasy starter, Frenchman Cristabol Huet, from the Montreal Canadians, is between the pipes for the East.

19:13 Turco makes a big stop on OV in between his color commentary with the boys upstairs.

17:59 Heater fires a hard shot past Turco. He's has looked solid all game — always in position, his vision unobstructed, picking pockets, and demonstrating his seasoned composure. Hey, Turco, practice that multi-tasking. East keeping it close, 7-9.

16:26 Guerin looking for assist number two, holding on to the puck as he skates behind the net looking for hat-trick hunter Rolston.

15:31 Two-on-one, Marleau floats some sauce to San Jose teammate Thornton's forehand, but Huet makes the cross the paint sliding stop on the redirection. Nice. Still 9-7.

12:48 The consummate veteran Joe Sakic sends a perfect pass to Nash who puts to second to bed and the West's lead to 10-7.

New York Islanders forward Jason Blake has been all over the rink the entire game. His low-key status doesn't garner much attention from casual hockey fans, but his presence at this year's game is absolutely necessary. He's had some botched plays because of the soft pucks and shoddy ice, but he has also made a few and his feet are moving as fast they were at the opening draw. If his line could finish with more regularity, Blake might be driving away as the MVP.

9:23 Chara is the man. This one-time skeptic has been converted. Tied league-leading goal scorer Marian Hossa draws the lone defensmen then floats a backhand across to the 81-inch Chara barreling toward Turco's net. Second goal of the game. Chara could possibly play an entire game as the Boston Bruins' only player on the ice. Impressed. Completely. East back within two, 10-8.

2:05 Nash is pushing for that hat-trick and the victory-sealing goal. The last seven minutes have been filled with pure goal-less excitement.

1:26 When will East coaches Lindy Ruff of Buffalo and Atlanta's Bob Hartley pull Huet? Wait, there he goes.

1:02 Havlat makes it all but official with his second tally of the game. Six seconds later, he shanks the crossbar. West ahead, 11-8.

0:34 The Montreal Candians' Sheldon Sourey careens a slap shot of a defender's stick and past Turco. East closing the gap, 9-11.

Empty net.

0:11 Uh, um ... Deon Phaneuf sends a sure icing dump-in from behind his own net the length of the ice and it curved on its side (lousy pucks and ice, anyone?) and in to the net. That's was unexpected.

Game over. West wins, 12-9.

Twenty-one total goals and more than 21 splendid plays easily erase the shoddy pre-game festivities like a Chuck Norris interview, lousy second intermission musical entertainment, and the coaches putting guys from the same team on a line instead of mixing it up.

It's good to have the All-Star Game back. It might not mean much to most people, but it allows fans to see the best players from each conference come together and play with each other, against each other.

Let's hope that we can elude more contractual shenanigans and put the NHL All-Star Game back on the annual calendar. The league deserves it, the players deserve it, the fans deserve it.

Author's notes: Ryan Smyth is a true ambassador of hockey. He's the kind of player — the kind of person — athletes in our sport should aspire to be. During the warm-ups, Smyth tossed three pucks into the stands to random kids who were ecstatic about the attention the Edmonton Oiler showed them. He's plays and carries himself with constant dignity and everyone who knows Smyth offers nothing but accolades. Total fan.

Daniel Briere was awarded the MVP with a goal and four assists for five points. He sure didn't win by being flashy. After his lone goal in early in the first period, he was practically unheard of for the remainder of the game. He clearly knows where to make himself heard: the scoresheet. Congratulations.

Posted by Jeff DiNunzio at 7:20 PM | Comments (0)

January 26, 2007

Super Bowl XLI Office Pool Propositions

1. Winner: Chicago/Indianapolis
2. Versus spread: Indianapolis -7/Chicago +7
3. Total points, game: over/under 48 ½
4. Total points, first quarter: over/under 10 ½
5. Total points, second quarter: over/under 13 ½
6. Total points, third quarter: over/under 12 ½
7. Total points, fourth quarter: over under 10 ½
8. Winner, coin toss: Indianapolis/Chicago
9. Result of coin toss: heads/tails
10. Bears to: receive/kick
11. Peyton Manning Super Bowl wins at concussion of game: over/under ½
12. Rex Grossman quarterback rating: over/under high temperature in Miami on February 4th
13. Manning pass yards: over/under 278 ½
14. Grossman pass yards: over/under 222 ½
15. Thomas Jones rush yards: over/under 59 ½
16. Cedric Benson rush yards: over/under 52 ½
17. Marvin Harrison receptions: over/under 6 ½
18. Dallas Clark receptions minus Desmond Clark receptions: over/under 3 ½
19. Reggie Wayne receiving yards: over/under 69 ½
20. Starting yard line of game’s first possession: over/under 27 ½
21. Chicago fumble recoveries: over/under 1 ½
22. Dwight Freeney sacks: over/under ½
23. Bernard Berrian touchdowns: over/under ½
24. Brian Urlacher tackles: over/under 9 ½
25. Tank Johnson sacks: over/under ½
26. Manning touchdown passes: over/under 2 ½
27. Grossman interceptions: over/under ½
28. Devin Hester punt return average: over/under 13 ½
29. Adam Vinatieri extra points: over/under 2 ½
30. Successful two-point conversions-both teams: over/under ½
31. Indianapolis red zone efficiency: over/under 50 ½ %
32. Chicago penalties: over/under 5 ½
33. Indianapolis penalties: over/under 5 ½
34. Yardage of first penalty: over/under 5 ½
35. First penalty called on: Chicago/Indianapolis
36. Referee’s number: over/under 73 ½
37. Colts total points: over/under President Bush’s approval rating points (28.25)
38. Square root of total points, both teams: over/under 7 ½
39. Jersey number of first Colt to score a touchdown: over/under 44 ½
40. Jersey number of first Bear to score a touchdown: over/under 32 ½
41. Manning turnovers: over/under ½
42. First penalty called on: offense/defense
43. Muhsin Muhammad receptions: over/under 3 ½
44. Yardage length of first Chicago touchdown: over/under 5 ½
45. Yardage length of first Indianapolis touchdown: over/under 5 ½
46. Half-time/versus spread: Indianapolis -3 1/2/Chicago +3 ½
47. Joseph Addai rushing yards: over/under 47 ½
48. Vinatieri longest field goal: over/under 42 ½ yards
49. Adewale Ogunleye sacks: over/under ½
50. Manning rush yards: over/under 1 ½
51. Largest lead of any team at any point: over/under 7 ½
52. Add total points at half-time: sum odd/even
53. Add total points of final score: sum odd/even
54. Time remaining on clock at two-minute warning of second half: over/under 1:58 ½
55. Indianapolis first downs: over/under 24 ½
56. Chicago first downs: over/under 19 ½
57. Indianapolis time of possession: over/under 30:11
58. Chicago time of possession: over/under 30:39
59. Total yards, both teams: over/under 671 1/2
60. Tie score at any point in the fourth quarter? yes/no
61. Bob Sanders interceptions: over/under 1/2
62. Charles Tillman interceptions: over/under 1/2
63. Robbie Gould extra point conversions: over/under 2 1/2
64. Points scored (both teams) in final two minutes: over/under 3 1/2
65. Jersey number of Most Valuable Player: over/under 18 ½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:26 PM | Comments (1)

Just Say No to On-Court Tennis Coaching

Tennis has finally left behind the shackles of tradition and decided to move forward into new territory with technological innovations and significant rule changes. The most visible such change has been the use of instant replay on line calls, making the famous Hawk-Eye an instant hit.

Even the scoring system is undergoing major fluctuations. In ATP doubles, there has already been the brief (yet foolish) experiment with shortened sets. Finally a more conventional, but still innovative, format has been adopted. No-ad scoring will be used in games and tie-breaks will replace the third sets. Furthermore, competition formats are even going through some revamping. ATP will experiment with round-robin formats at tournaments that guarantee more playtime for the tournaments' big-time stars.

All in the name of attracting new fans, making the game more fan-friendly. I say, "great!"

Hey, I am all for making it more attractive to the common fan. By all means, let's carry it a step further. Let the fans scream during exciting points and do not make it an obligation for the fans to be completely still and quiet before serving up the point. When a player requests for the fan in seat 34, row F to stop adjusting his sunglasses, instruct the umpire to tell the player "play on." Don't even put the idea of "names on back of shirts" on the table. Go ahead, and make it a rule beginning yesterday!

Many of these new ideas, whether they are on the table or already being implemented, are interesting, exciting, and fresh. They alter the environment and the atmosphere for the fans, help them focus better on the match being played. They do all that without endangering the nature of the competition itself, which consists of a one-on-one encounter (two-on-two in doubles) between two players' combined physical and mental skills related to tennis.

Except one: on-court coaching. Luckily, it has yet to make it past the "discussions" or "experimental” phase. God save tennis if it becomes a full-time part of the game.

On-court coaching alters everything about the nature of the tennis match. It is no longer a one-on-one battle. Those "one's" can now be held by hand, be told to keep their mouths shut, and baby-sat through a match.

Let's speculate for a moment. Let's imagine that on-court coaching has been allowed all through the open era. Now think back in time and remember some of the past champions — Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Boris Becker.

Think of the impact that on-court coaching would have had on the image of these past champions in our minds, and in the media. Would we think of Pete Sampras in the same manner if he always had a coach by his side during matches? I am fairly certain that some media would have mentioned over and over again how fantastic a job his coach sitting on the chair was doing in making sure Sampras keeps his head in the match.

I am one hundred percent sure that the coach would have taken a good portion of the credit in Pete's gut-wrenching five-set quarterfinal victory over Alex Corretja in the 1996 U.S. Open. But we know better, don't we? Pete became ill, threw up, yet found a way all by himself to will himself to victory under the lights, in the biggest tennis arena in the world. And no one else but him deserves the credit for pulling out that historical match.

Throughout his career, Bjorn Borg was able to remain (at least appear to be) cool as ice throughout his matches. The world of tennis admired for his mental toughness and emotional control on the court. It was part of his aura, persona. McEnroe said that Borg was "the biggest character in tennis without ever having one." Now, let's speculate one more time and travel to our hypothetical world. Let's imagine that his coach, Lennart Bergelin, was able to sit by his side on the court. Would we not hear commentators saying things like, "Great job by Lennart for keeping his pupil Bjorn under control during this bad call?" Would we think of Borg the same as we do now? I think not.

If you allow coaching, what's next? Can the coaches also argue line calls on behalf of their players? Can the players receive a point penalty if the coach acts like an idiot? It may sound funny now, but if on-court coaching begins, at first it will be a passing comment or two by the coach to the referee. Then soon enough, it will be coaches complaining that "if we can talk to our players, why can't we talk to the referees?"

What if the coach is an animated individual and gets more attention then the player? Will Adidas pay him more money to wear its new clothing line on the sideline than the player? Oh, and what if a top-10 player gets passed over for a wildcard, and a top-75 player is accepted because he/she happens to have a coach with a very animated coaching style that will put butts in the seats during a tournament? Will there be a dress code for coaches? Will it be too much like a college basketball game where fans come to watch Bobby Knight on the sideline and not the game?

Can you imagine how some obsessive parents, declaring themselves as coaches, would take advantage of such opportunity and turn the match into a nightmare for their child who may not want them there, but who may not have the guts to tell them? Imagine a breakdown and a fight between son/daughter and daddy during a tennis match because one has a short fuse and the fuse gets blown by a sensitive comment. In the case of Anastasia Myskina or Tommy Haas, the coach on the sideline does not even have to be a relative. Yell and scream at them all you wish! They abuse them even now, while the coaches sit quietly in the stands.

On-court coaching would give the advantage to the top players who can afford a full-time coach. Lower ranked players would now have one more obstacle against them. This is not like professional team sports. We are not talking about teams or franchises trying to fill their arenas to make money, hence they have the right to buy the best coach that they can afford. Tennis is an individual sport and the players are out there for themselves.

A tennis match needs to be decided solely on the abilities of the players involved, and no one else. A tennis match does not need to be more than a duel between two skilled athletes on opposite sides of the net. The player needs to get all the credit and bask in his glory after he wins a tournament or a match and not have to share the spotlight with another individual. The player and no one else needs to salute the crowd immediately after shaking the opponent's hand.

Last question regarding our hypothetical world: how foolish would all the on-court coaches and their players have looked facing Roger Federer while he was without a coach for a full year?

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 6:22 PM | Comments (7)

January 25, 2007

NBA at the Half: Second Time's the Charm

The 2006-07 NBA campaign is at its midpoint. Most teams have played 39 to 41 games. It has, to date, been a season marked by long winning streaks by the Phoenix Suns, high scoring, and injuries to stars such as Shaquille O'Neal, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Paul Gasol, Chris Bosh, and a smaller Chris named Paul. Carmelo Anthony sucker-punched his way to a 15-game suspension, and Allen Iverson talked his way into a trade.

Elsewhere, Gilbert Arenas, he of the 29.7 ppg scoring average, has arrived as a superstar by virtue of dropping 51 points on the Utah Jazz, 54 on the red-hot Suns to end their 15-game winning string at Phoenix, and 60 on Kobe's Lakers at Staples Center. In the latter two games, "Les Wiz" scored more than 140 points.

Wipe the slate for February through June, though, because things are about to change. The second half of the season will be a whole new ballgame. Denver will have Iverson and Anthony, plus J.R. Smith, and they will learn to play nice together (or not). Yao will return to the team with T-Mac. Shaq is back for the 19-23 Heat, a team that is just average in his absence. We could also see names like Lamar Odom return to action.

For all the hoopla about Phoenix, how many have noticed that Dallas is 35-8? Avery Johnson has his troops fine-tuned after last year's Finals run, but Amare Stoudemire of the Suns was shelved then. San Antonio, a club that really plays well as a (European-style) team, sits at 30-14. With Utah at 28-15 (and the Lakers boasting 27 wins), five Western teams have a shot at 60 victories.

Yet the league champ could rise in the East. The Heat are only five and a half games behind the Wizards, and the young Cavaliers and Bulls have home records of 15-5 and 18-6, respectively. Look for Washington to return to the pack some as Arenas' legs tire and the team's weak defense becomes more of a factor. Les Wiz are not built to stop wing scorers — they count on outscoring you.

Buoyed by the post presence of young Dwight Howard, the Orlando Magic trail Washington by a mere two games. And don't sleep on Toronto, another young squad stocked with Euro talent, rookie/first draft pick Andrea Bargnani, and a recovering Chris Bosh. They've won seven of their last 10, and T.J. Ford has found a home running their offense. Coach Sam Mitchell trained this bunch to run, and they are.

Don't let New Orleans-OKC's 16-25 mark fool you, either, they're not only without Paul, but Peja Stojakovic and David West, not to mention the energetic Bobby Jackson. No pushover in the spring, this unit. And the T-Wolves made a coaching change this week; even at 20-21 they showed Dwayne Casey the door.

So you see, we're in for an entirely different scene from here on in. While Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Memphis plummet toward the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant sweepstakes, most teams are re-tooling for what promises to be a second act full of running, gunning, healing, and dealing. And the way the injuries have mounted so far, no one is safe through the regular season with their lineup intact. The prelude was fun, but now the serious business of basketball begins.

Posted by Bijan C. Bayne at 9:11 PM | Comments (0)

Dealing with the UIGEA

If you play poker online or have an Internet sportsbook, there's a good chance you are aware of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act (UIGEA). It passed the House of Representatives earlier this year, but when it appeared it would not make it to the Senate floor before winter recess, UIGEA champion Bill Frist (R-TN) simply tacked it on as a rider to a Port Security bill that no one in the Senate (especially not during election season) would dare vote against, particularly during election season.

The bill does not talk about the individual bettor, but it bars websites from accepting bets from U.S. bettors, and it prohibits banks and credit cards from facilitating such transactions.

They aren't kidding, either. The founders of two online sportsbooks and the leading internet "ewallet" for gambling transactions (Neteller) have been arrested in the last few months.

The effect the bill has had on the U.S. gaming public has been palpable, but not devastating. Roughly half of the sportsbooks and poker sites that accepted U.S. patronage stopped doing so. Most of the third party banks that allowed you to transfer money from your bank account to a gambling site have stopped accepting American customers.

On the other hand, every site that still accepts has payment options that Americans can use. It's just that it may only be one or two choices, and those choices may change quite a bit in the coming months and years.

Or maybe not. The U.S. sportsbook and poker industry is much too large and profitable for some companies not to take on the risk and step up to assist American gamblers. If you want to start such an "ewallet" company, the sacrifice would be that you would have to set up shop outside of the US, where gambling is legal, and forget about coming to the U.S. to visit.

You would not need to worry about extradition, though, as international law only allows for extradition if the crime committed is illegal in both the host country and the visited country. These companies also have more solid legal footing than you might expect in other ways; the U.S.' position on Internet gambling is contrary to the position of the World Trade Organization, which the U.S. is a part of and ostensibly is supposed to uphold their principles as a member. This is why the nation of Antigua sued the U.S. in WTO court, and won. But the WTO is, as you might imagine, pretty powerless to enforce their dicta. They aren't going to kick the U.S. out of the WTO for this.

The other large correlation between the gambling sites and ewallets' decision to stay in the U.S. market or abandon it is whether the company in question is publicly traded on a stock exchange. Those that are have been the quickest to leave the U.S. It does no good for your shares if you are blatantly violating U.S. law.

However, even after the Neteller arrests last week, a company new to the ewallet industry (at least as far as gambling goes), Nucharge, has propped up and signed on as an accepted deposit option at Bodog. There will be more new such companies. And they will have learned from the mistakes of their predecessors. The U.S. government can't completely wipe out the practice of sending money overseas. They can only make it slightly more inconvenient, and try to block ABC company from getting U.S. cash, only to be replaced by DEF company. The market will stay one step ahead.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 8:27 PM | Comments (0)

January 24, 2007

Super Bowl XLI Preview

Five Quick Hits

* Bill Parcells has retired again. I think this stint in Dallas has hurt his legacy, and Parcells is not a lock for the Hall of Fame.

* Mike Tomlin is the new head coach in Pittsburgh. I've heard nothing but praise for the guy, but his pass defense in Minnesota was awfully suspect this year, and I don't feel good about the Steelers passing over the qualified coaches who were already on their staff.

* San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will succeed Nick Saban in Miami. Marty Schottenheimer has a pretty big hole to fill in his coaching staff.

* Jim Mora, Jr., has accepted a position as Seattle's defensive backs coach. Not a coordinator, not assistant head coach, nothing. That's quite a drop in rank.

* The Bengals had another player arrested this week. That's nine, if you're counting. About 20% of the team has been to jail in the last year.

***

Injuries always play a role in the NFL, but it's a shame when they affect games as big as the ones played this weekend. Both losing teams were missing key players. The Saints were blown out, and it's unlikely that one player would have made the difference, but the team clearly missed Joe Horn this weekend, both for his on-field play and his off-field leadership. New England was without veteran leaders Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau, and it's easy to think those guys might have swung the AFC Championship Game in the Patriots' favor.

Of course, the winning teams had injuries, too, most notably Chicago's all-pro DT, Tommie Harris. On Sunday, though, the absences of Horn and Harrison were hard to ignore.

Championship Game Roundups

New Orleans @ Chicago

In a weekend full of momentum swings, the early going in the Saints/Bears contest was full of them. New Orleans looked pretty good early, despite getting stifled by big plays from Chicago's defense. The Saints got at least one first down on each of their first three drives, getting to Chicago territory on two of them. On the other side of the ball, the Bears couldn't do anything. Both of their first two drives lasted less than a minute, yielding a total of six yards and no first downs.

Turnovers moved the momentum into Chicago's favor, with the offense starting three consecutive drives in Saint territory, all of them leading to field goals. The defining moment of the first half occurred when Chicago went on a four-minute, 69-yard touchdown drive that consisted of eight handoffs to Thomas Jones.

The Saints got a strong opening to the second half, as Reggie Bush, on one play, justified all the hype that surrounded him coming out of college. After somehow cutting between three tacklers, Bush turned on the jets and simply outran everyone to the end zone. Incredible play. Like almost everyone else, though, I could have done without his taunting the Bears.

That was the last spark of glory for New Orleans, though. The final turning point came when Drew Brees took an intentional grounding penalty in his own end zone, giving Chicago a safety. Brees didn't have a bad game statistically, but he really did not play well. There were times when I couldn't tell whether he was staying very cool in the pocket, or just didn't feel the pressure. Brees was sacked three times and committed two crucial fumbles, one of them causing a 25-yard loss and the other leading to a Chicago touchdown that put the game out of reach.

Brees was the Saints' leader this season, and he struggled with both his accuracy and decision-making on Sunday. There was a lot of discussion about Brees' decision not to wear a glove in the snowy conditions. It's unclear what role the weather played in his personal struggles, but it seems safe to say that (1) the bad weather hurt the Saints and (2) they would have lost anyway. I'm still not convinced that the Bears are the better team, but they certainly deserved to win on Sunday.

The Bears' aggressive defense dominated New Orleans on the line, generating a great pass rush and forcing a very poor outing from all-pro left tackle Jammal Brown. On offense, Chicago avoided mistakes and took advantage of their opponent's weaknesses: vulnerable cornerback Fred Thomas and a soft run defense. Teams that rush for 200 yards and go +4 in turnovers simply do not lose, especially in games of this magnitude.

New England @ Indianapolis

This game was football's equivalent to the Red Sox comeback against the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS. Indianapolis is the NFL's Red Sox, a team that's always good, but can't win the big one. The Patriots are the league's Yankees, the team that's always on top and seemingly owns its closest competition. I realize that the Curse of the Bambino and the extravagant payroll issues aren't in play here, and an 18-point comeback isn't the same as three games down in a seven-game series, but the comparison rings true. The team that's always been on the losing end overcame a huge deficit –against its biggest rival — and ended years of futility to reach the sport's biggest stage. Sunday's game didn't have quite the same magnitude or historical significance of Boston's ALCS comeback, but it was degrees of the same thing.

This was the perfect way for Indianapolis to reach the Super Bowl. When the Patriots went up 21-3, I thought the game was over. It seemed like we were looking at the beginnings of a 30- or 40-point blowout. From that point on, though, Peyton Manning asserted himself in a game that may become a centerpiece of his legacy.

Indy's defense wasn't terrible, but on a day when the Colts surrendered 34 points and still won, it was all about Manning. He threw for 349 yards and a remarkable 20 first downs. The Patriots were able to take away the long pass for most of the contest, and Manning responded by completing 27 passes to nine different receivers. The Colts also got important production from their running backs, Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai.

In completing their improbable comeback — the largest in Championship Game history — the Colts scored 32 second-half points, against the NFL's second-best scoring defense, no less. New England's defense played well — particularly CBs Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs — but visibly wore down as the game went on. The longer this game lasted, the more that favored the Colts. There were individual problems, like Reche Caldwell's drops and the Pats' inability to adequately defend Dallas Clark, but the Patriots were simply outmatched. They weren't able to pressure Manning consistently, and in the second half, they were totally unable to stop the Indy offense.

As a final note, Manning's only touchdown pass in this game was caught by defensive lineman Dan Klecko. Who would have predicted that the Colts would score 38 points without any touchdowns from Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne? Indy's TDs were scored by Manning, Klecko, Jeff Saturday, and Addai. Congratulations to Tony Dungy, Manning, Harrison, Adam Vinatieri, Marlin Jackson, and everyone wearing blue and white on Sunday.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XL: Bears vs. Colts
Miami, Florida

There are three big storylines in this game. The boring one is the matchup between the powerful Indianapolis offense and the dominant Chicago defense. The important one is the matchup between two African-American head coaches, the first time even one has been in charge of a Super Bowl team. Probably the most compelling, though, is Manning's shot at the big one.

Remember Super Bowl XXXII? John Elway's Broncos against the Packers? Almost every football fan in America was rooting for Elway to finally get his ring. Elway didn't generate the same animosity Manning does — it seems like the same people who were mad at him for not winning a championship are now rooting for him not to — but there will be a lot of people hoping we've heard the last about Manning and Dungy being unable to win meaningful games. A Super Bowl win would put both Manning and Dungy over .500 in the postseason.

The coaching matchup is interesting not only because it's the first time a black head coach has reached the Super Bowl — and one is certain to win — but because Lovie Smith used to work for Tony Dungy. It's a matchup of mentor vs. protégé, and pits last season's Coach of the Year against the runner-up.

The results of this game will probably depend less on the coaches, though, than on the quarterbacks. Dungy has the best one of this generation. Smith has Rex Grossman. You can't win the Super Bowl without a quarterback, and the Bears don't have one. Compare Grossman with Trent Dilfer if you like, but the Colts are a lot better than the '00 Giants, and Manning ain't Kerry Collins.

For Chicago to have a chance, it needs another big game from the defense. Sacks, fumbles, interceptions, three-and-outs. Big plays from special teams would help, too. A dynamic return game kept New England alive in the AFC Championship Game, and could do the same for the Bears in Miami.

On offense, the Bears will try to establish a strong running game, as they did against New Orleans. Grossman will throw just enough to keep the defense honest, and he'll get a lot of extra protection to deal with Indy's pass-rushers up front. Keep an eye on how they play Dwight Freeney, in particular. A couple big plays from the passing game could swing the contest, but Chicago won't count on that, instead trying to control the clock and grind out yardage with the running game.

Indianapolis probably won't change much about the defensive gameplan it's used throughout the postseason. Stopping the run comes first, and the front four — particularly Robert Mathis and Freeney — will be responsible for generating pressure on Grossman. Nick Harper's injury could be a major blow to the Colts.

On offense, the Colts will take what Chicago gives them. Blanket the wide receivers, as New England did, and Manning will throw to Clark and Ben Utecht and the running backs. Clog the middle, and Harrison and Wayne will destroy you. Use extra defensive backs, and Manning hands off to Rhodes and Addai. That strategy has worked all postseason, and Indianapolis has to stick with it. The most important factor is avoiding turnovers. Dungy and his staff will spend the next two weeks emphasizing ball control.

The Colts are battle-tested in a way the Saints were not, and they're not just happy to be in the Super Bowl. I think Chicago used up all its miracles last week, and the Bears won't be able to stop Manning, or to score consistently with Grossman under center. A Colts blowout wouldn't surprise me, but I'll say Chicago's defense makes enough plays to keep it close.

Colts 30, Bears 16

Posted by Brad Oremland at 10:59 PM | Comments (1)

MLB Pitchers Exploit Tight Market

Barry Zito LHP (Giants, $126 million over 7 years)

Another smoke and mirrors job by Scott Boras resulted in a huge payday for a client, this time Oakland's Barry Zito, the last of the great Mark Mulder/Tim Hudson/Zito triumvirate to leave the Coliseum.

Zito was supposedly this offseason's premier pitching free agent and was slated to end up in New York. Instead, he surprised the pundits by wisely crossing the Bay to the friendly confines of the NL West, where power hitting is as rare as Paris Hilton enjoying a quiet night in.

It's even debatable whether Barry Zito was the best pitcher on the Oakland staff, let alone a top-10 MLB pitcher, as Boras (and some of the press) portrayed him. His 2002 Cy Young was his signature year, but he's been extremely hittable ever since, particularly last year.
Boras hoped to panic GMs into a long-term mega-deal and he got his way with the Giants brass, which inexplicably let the cheaper Jason Schmidt walk and now needed a front-line starter.

Zito has plus points (durability, lefty, 3.55 career ERA), but he isn't a Johan Santana or Chris Carpenter. He walks a lot of guys (a career high 99 last year), gives up a lot of homers (27 last year), and he's showing signs of decline even though he's only 28. His WHIP was an unspectacular 1.40 in 2006, out of line with his ERA of 3.83. He got lucky with stranding base runners and his BB/9 was again a career high at 4.03.

That said, he should fare better in the NL and made a wise move avoiding the AL East, which has traditionally hit him long and hard.
$18 million a year is maybe explainable until 2008. After that the Giants will most likely view it as an albatross, especially as Zito isn't an everyday player. It smacks of panic on behalf of Brian Sabean, who has already (probably) saddled himself with another year of the Barry Bonds circus. Rather than the ridiculous Mike Hampton-like contract he landed, Zito was worth around $15 million a year for four years.

Gil Meche RHP (Royals, $55 million over 5 years)

GM Dayton Moore has really taken some heat over this one. Meche is the poster-boy for those who prescribe to the theory of over-spending and dull-witted baseball executives. I've not seen one scribe who has a good word to say about this signing.

Meche doesn't have inspiring numbers so far. He's shown some ability in the majors, though not much was expected from him as a first-round pick out of high school.

The plus side is he's still young, he posted his best strikeout numbers last year, and his BB/9 was almost the same as Zito at 4.05. He still walks too many, gives up too many homers, and his career ERA is 4.65. But so did Chris Carpenter at 28 (his career ERA was 4.83). Carpenter was languishing in the Toronto bullpen and seemingly on his way to obscurity rather than a Cy Young.

That's not to say Meche is a future Cy Young winner. But he has an upside and could make a decent No. 2 starter. This deal isn't necessarily the dud it's portrayed as. The Blue Jays and the Cubs were both prepared to pay Meche $11 million a year, but didn't offer a fifth year.

The Royals are in a situation where they have to overpay to sign even mediocre free agents, but they are looking to get better fast with a new GM that's prepared to gamble. This gamble may pay off.

Andy Pettitte LHP (Yankees, $16 million over 1 year, with option for 2008)

Brian Cashman is hoping to see the Andy Pettitte that dominated in the NL after the All-Star Break last year, rather than the inconsistent, homer-prone, has-been that showed up for the first half of the season. It's a gamble and one that may owe something to nostalgia and a yearning to re-sign his buddy Roger Clemens.

Pettitte isn't that old (34), he's a lefty who still dominates righties, and is still a gamer that has been in the big one and not buckled. But he's not the 1997 Pettitte who sported an ERA of 2.88 and who gave up a measly 7 home runs in 240 innings. His last year in New York (2003), he went 21-8, but his ERA had crept up over 4.00.

That said, Pettitte is worth the price in the current market. In the AL East, it's tough for starting pitchers to put up outstanding numbers, but Cashman will expect him to keep his team in the game for the high-powered offense. History says he will.

Randy Johnson LHP (traded by the Yankees to the Diamondbacks)

Johnson was an enigma in New York. He had a decent 2005, though he struggled at times. He totally collapsed in 2006, looking his age (finally), though he was playing through injuries in mitigation. He looked troubled on and off the mound, wasn't comfortable being just another famous player on a team full of stars, and was prone to giving up XBH in bunches. So he's headed back to the comfortable NL West and his Arizona home, joining the likes of Jeff Weaver, Javier Vasquez, and Kevin Brown who tried and failed in the Bronx.

Though Brian Cashman seems to have picked up some decent talent in compensation (and not parted with much cash), this isn't necessarily a great short-term deal for the Yankees. The $14 million saved isn't a big issue to a cash-rich team and Johnson could rebound in 2007 and have a good season. If he's healthy, he can still dominate and the Yankees don't have that sort of pitcher on the roster (unless Clemens takes his spot in the rotation).

As far as 2007 goes, this deal depends on what Clemens does. If Cashman spends the money he's saved on one last (maybe) hurrah for Clemens, then it's a good deal. If the Yankees are forced to rely on Carl Pavano, it isn't.

Daisuke Matsuzaka RHP (Red Sox, $52 million over 6 years)

It's not hard to suspect that Boras whiffed on this one given that Gil Meche and Ted Lilly scored $10 million a year each. Boras postured for as long as he could to try to panic the Red Sox brass into an overblown offer, but the suspicion is that Matsuzaka put an end to it and signed anyway, fearing another season of complete-game, 150-pitch efforts in Japan.

That said, it's tough not to be impressed by Theo Epstein's determination to land Matsuzaka. A posting fee of $51.1 million far eclipsed anything the Mets or Dodgers were prepared to pay. The contract itself, in today's climate, is a relative bargain should the Japanese righty be anything like as advertised.

Obviously with foreign stars who are transplanted into MLB, there is an element of the unknown. By all accounts, Matsuzaka has the arsenal to compete in the majors. He's been on the big stage in his own country, was MVP of the inaugural World Baseball Classic, and seems a composed young man that might be able to cope with the demands of the frenzied Boston media.

The only worries with Matsuzaka are his health and whether he can survive in the AL East, the land where ERAs go to die.

According to the available information, Matsuzaka has been seriously abused in Japan. He threw a 250-pitch game as a high-school pitcher and has regularly run up high pitch counts in the pros (he threw 11 games of over 130 pitches in 2005 and eight of 129 or more in 2006), though Japanese pitchers do work on six days rest.

Given the available data on his abuse, it's amazing Matsuzaka hasn't had rotator cuff or elbow problems. Maybe that's to come. Thankfully for Red Sox fans, Dusty Baker isn't in line to get the manager's job anytime soon.

The verdict on Matsuzaka is great deal, providing he stays healthy. Even in the AL East, he could post a sub-4 ERA.

He'll join Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett, and Jonathon Papelbon in what looks the best rotation in the AL East — on paper. The problem is that Schilling is old and injury-prone, Wakefield gets lit-up with regularity, Beckett stunk out Fenway in his first season, and Paplebon has never started in the majors. Matt Clement, anyone?

Ted Lilly LHP (Cubs, $40 million over 4 years)

Lilly has made a living in the AL East most of his career, so he's battle-hardened at least. The rest of his resume is spotty. The upside is he's still relatively young (30), is a lefty, and posted his best K/9 figures in 2006 since becoming a full-time starter. The bad news is more plentiful and worrying. He's not particularly durable (he's never pitched 200 innings in his career), he walks too many batters (81 last year), gave up a career high 28 homers in 2006, and his career ERA is a moderate 4.60.

At best, Lilly is a back-of-the-rotation starter and he's more exposed than Meche with less room to improve, yet the Cubs are throwing $10 million a year at him. He may post better numbers in the weaker hitting NL, but it's a big risk for GM Jim Hendry to rely on Lilly to carry the load behind Carlos Zambrano. All-in-all, I prefer Meche's chances of justifying his pay-check.

Adam Eaton RHP (Phillies, $24 million over 3 years)

A complete head-scratcher. Eaton posted some seriously average numbers over six years in San Diego — a pitcher friendly park. An injury-hit season in Texas did little to enhance his reputation (a 5.12 ERA in 13 starts). He's a fly ball pitcher that seems unlikely to prosper in a small park and can't stay off the DL, yet GM Pat Gillick saw enough to offer him three years. Batters hit .299 off him last year, compared to his career year in 2003, when they only managed .245. The key to success for Eaton is keeping the ball on the ground, which he hasn't done to any degree since 2003, when he posted a GO/AO ratio of 1.15. History says that when he's healthy, Eaton is going to be watching a lot of balls sail over his shoulder and into the bleachers.

Freddy Garcia RHP (acquired by Phillies for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez)

The Phillies pad out their rotation with the 6'4" Garcia, who can either be dominant or appear disinterested on the mound. He's got one year of his contract remaining at $10 million, so Pat Gillick is gambling he's going to be looking for a career year and get his huge payday in 2007.

The good news: Garcia is durable (over 200 innings for the last six seasons), has a big-game temperament (6-2, 3.11 ERA in postseason play), and he doesn't walk that many (career low BB/9 of 2.00 last season).

The bad news: his strikeout numbers have fallen every year for the last four years to 5.62 per nine, he gives up too many homers (32 in 2006), and he's become a flyball pitcher (GO/AO ratio of 0.92 last year, exactly the same as Ted Lilly). Plus, he has attracted a lot of criticism in Chicago for his (seemingly) casual manner on the mound.

This deal looks good for Philadelphia, who can score runs at ease, but can't pitch. If Garcia can keep the ball in the park (no mean feat in The Cit), he could be a good rental for a year. Pat Gillick didn't give up the farm, either. Gavin Floyd has a 7-5 record with a 6.96 ERA in 24 major league appearances — hardly inspiring though he has a power arm, with a fastball sitting at 91 to 94 mph, along with a hard, biting curve and a fading change to battle left-handed hitters.

White Sox GM Kenny Williams believes a few adjustments can be made on Floyd's delivery so that the White Sox can get him in a better place with his command. Gonzalez has switched between the White Sox and Phillies so many times he can retire on his frequent flyer miles.

Jason Marquis RHP (Cubs, $20 million over 3 years)

At the end of 2004, Jason Marquis looked about to take his place amongst the elite of NL pitchers. Since that year with the Cardinals (15-7, 3.71 ERA), Marquis has regressed significantly, despite only being 28-years-old.

There was a point last season when Marquis led the league in wins, but that was misleading — his ERA was 6.72 after the break and he wasn't even on the Cards roster after the NLDS.

The problem with Marquis is he's become a flyball pitcher — something he wasn't in 2004. His GO/AO ratio has declined from 2.05 in 2004 to 1.12 last year and inevitably his homer total was a career high 35. Alarmingly, he struck out only 96 batters in 194 innings and walked 75 — again a career high.

It's disconcerting that St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan appears to have given up on Marquis, who was viewed as a future gem whilst in Atlanta. With a smaller park to pitch in and a less talented infield to help him out, Marquis is a big risk at the price. He offers innings, but is nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation pitcher who looks overpriced. The pitching-light Cubs need the 2004 version of Marquis to show up or they could be in trouble.

Randy Wolf LHP (Dodgers, $7.5 million over 1 year with an option for 2008)

First the bad news: Wolf had Tommy John surgery in 2005, hasn't pitched 200 innings since 2003, and had an ERA of 5.56 last season, his first since the operation.

The good news is Wolf, a flyball pitcher, is moving from Citizens Bank to Chavez Ravine, where it's a lot harder to get one out the park. If the 2002 Wolf (210.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP .223 AVE) shows up, he's a great addition. If the surgery has taken its toll on his elbow, then Ned Colletti is only in the hole for a one year rental.

Jason Schmidt RHP (Dodgers, $47 million over 3 years)

Ned Colletti and new Dodgers trainer Stan Conte are familiar with what Schmidt has to offer and most of it is good. Schmidt, 33, has put together five solid consecutive seasons as a Giant, finishing second in the 2003 NL Cy Young ballot and he's familiar with the NL West hitters. He has suffered groin problems in the past, but still logged over 1000 innings in the last five seasons so he's durable. He is more of a flyball pitcher than strikeout pitcher nowadays, so is prone to the homer (21 last season — his highest since 1999 in Pittsburgh), but that's not such a problem in cavernous Dodger Stadium.

Schmidt is a major pickup for Colletti and bolts-on nicely to what is shaping up to be the best rotation in the NL. If only the Dodgers can find 25-30 homers and 100 RBIs to replace J.D. Drew, they might be in good enough shape to win the NL pennant.

Mark Mulder LHP (re-signed with Cardinals, $13 million over 2 years)

This deal could end up costing the team $45 million over three years if all goes well. Walt Jocketty hopes it does because his rotation looks shaky after Chris Carpenter.

Mulder is coming off rotator cuff surgery and will miss the first-half of 2007. He pitched only five innings after June 20th last year, but at 29, is still young enough to bounce back.

Whether Mulder can ever be the force he was in 2001-03 is another question. He's never been a pure power guy, instead using his control and guile to outwit batters.

The St. Louis version of Mulder has been more of a groundball pitcher than the guy that came into the league, as indicated by his declining strikeout numbers (6.90 K/9 in 2002 compared to 4.87 K/9 in 2005). That alone wouldn't be a problem, except the walk and hit totals per nine innings have gone up, also.

If Mulder can get back down to his best Oakland walk numbers (around 40) and regain some velocity he can contribute after the break. That's a big if after serious surgery, so Jeff Weaver might not look so bad after all come September.

Other Deals of Note

LHP Kei Igawa, 27, signed for the Yankees (reportedly $20 million over four years and a $26 million posting fee) and will figure at the back of the rotation. Brian Cashman will be having toad-based nightmares until he's satisfied Igawa can actually pitch in the majors.

Doug Davis, LHP, took his soft-toss routine to Arizona in a six-player trade. He had a couple of good years in Milwaukee (3.39 and 3.84 ERA in 2004 and 2005), but his walk total ballooned last year (102) and his ERA paid the price (4.91). The bigger ballparks and weaker hitters in the NL West should help his stats.

Braves GM John Schuerholz stole reliever Rafael Soriano away from Seattle for mediocre starter Horacio Ramirez and further bolstered his bullpen by trading away 1B Adam LaRoche for lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez, who closed last year in Pittsburgh. Gonzalez walks too many batters still, but will be an invaluable set up man and back-up closer should Bob Wickman go down, though the Braves will sorely miss LaRoche's power.

Former über-closer Eric Gagne ($6 million for one year) is hoping to bounce back from a succession of injuries in Texas as the Rangers' new closer. Gagne is a great character and (apparently) a nice guy, so I'll be rooting for him, but the speed with which he broke down last year is ominous for a complete comeback. At his best, he was lights-out.

Mike Mussina ($22 million over two years) bounced back from a couple of moderate seasons in New York to pitch well in 2006 (3.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). The key to his success was his BB/9 ratio, a career low 1.60. The fans in the Bronx have never really warmed to the slightly robotic Mussina, but he stays in good shape and is dependable. He has pitched his entire career in the brutal AL East and his ERA is 3.63 — that alone is worth $11 million a year.

Veteran lefty Tom Glavine elected to end his career in Shea (one year at $10.5 million) rather than return to Atlanta. Glavine has had three consecutive solid seasons with the Mets and there's no reason to suppose he'll be any different in 2007. He'll need to hit the ground running in 2007 as the Mets' rotation looks vulnerable without Pedro Martinez. At less than $11 million, Glavine looks a solid re-sign.

Conversely, Orlando Hernandez looks a risk at $12 million for two years. He's injury-prone (the last time he even approached 200 innings was in 2000 with 195.2) and old (he's listed as 39, but that's debatable), but he is capable of dominant spells on the mound, particularly in October, where he has a career ERA of 2.55. If the Mets can nurse him to 150+ innings and into October, Omar Minaya has gambled and won.

Takashi Saito ended up closing in Los Angeles after Eric Gagne went down and did an outstanding job, despite the skeptics claiming he didn't have the stamina or arsenal to close. He ended the year with 24 saves, an ERA of 2.07, and a WHIP of 0.91. He'll be back in Dodger Stadium in 2007 keeping the closers chair warm for Jonathon Broxton. Saito doesn't throw that hard, but he's deceptive and ridiculously hard to hit (opponents hit only .177 against him and right-handers a paltry .129). He is 37, but he's in good condition and didn't wear down as many predicted as the season wore on. At $1 million for 2007, he's the best signing this offseason.

Posted by Mike Round at 10:54 PM | Comments (3)

January 22, 2007

Busting the Door Wide Open

This column is two years in the making.

It was the third weekend of January in 2005. The New York Jets flew cross-country the week before to squeak by the San Diego Chargers. The Indianapolis Colts enjoyed their home-dome advantage to oust the Denver Broncos from the postseason.

Now, wildcard weekend had shifted to the divisional playoffs. The Jets would take on 15-1 Pittsburgh, who had the best team all year. The Colts, meanwhile, headed to New England to face the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. It was supposed to be the best weekend of football all year, but I focused on these two games for another reason.

In 1989, the Los Angeles Raiders hired Art Shell as the first black head coach since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Seven head coaches, including Shell, of African-American descent had prowled the sidelines in those 16 seasons, and all but two (rookie coach Lovie Smith and second-year leader Marvin Lewis) had led their teams to the playoffs. However, none had reached the pinnacle of all squads, the Super Bowl.

I knew it was a difficult proposition, but if both the Jets and Colts could survive their road tests, that lofty goal would have been accomplished. It would have come down to Herman Edwards versus Tony Dungy for the right at history, but the moment would have been solidified, nonetheless.

It wasn't to be. Pittsburgh survived overtime against New York that Saturday. Indianapolis couldn't overcome Bill Belichick and Tom Brady the next. Instead, I wrote about Donovan McNabb becoming the third black starting quarterback in the NFL's showcase game. And while that feat was extremely significant in my mind, I wanted to write that first column.

Now, lofty can only be described as an understatement. With Sunday's results, the NFL won't only see a black head coach reach its modern championship for the first time. There is a guarantee that one will raise the Lombardi Trophy.

It may seem like this shouldn't be a big deal. This country is almost 40 years removed from the peak of the Civil Rights Movement. African-Americans are seen in positions of power in politics, business, and entertainment. Even in sports, blacks are now in upper management (coaches, GMs, owners). But it's still a rarity to see a coach of color win the big prize.

The NBA has had a smattering of coaches get to the Finals, including Bill Russell and K.C. Jones winning titles in Boston and Lenny Wilkins doing so in Seattle. World Series coaches have been even rarer occurrences. Dusty Baker got there, but the only member of the trophy carrying fraternity is Cito Gaston, the man who led the '92 and '93 Blue Jays to their brightest moments.

Football has had coaches sniff the big game. Shell put the Raiders in the 1990 AFC Championship. Dennis Green took Minnesota to the NFC title game in 1998 and 2000. Dungy had been to both conference championships (1999 with Tampa Bay and 2003 with Indianapolis). None of them could break through until Sunday. And to go from no representation to a guaranteed title is more of a launch than a leap.

Fortunately, I wasn't the first to notice this (although I'd love to mimic "Around the Horn" and say, "As first reported by SC's Jonathan Lowe..."). From national programs, such as "Pardon the Interruption," to print stories like one by Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, people knew that this was a possibility. Actually, with Smith's Bears and Dungy's Colts hosting the conference championships, it could have been seen as more of an expectation.

But expectations don't always lead to results. Both coaches knew that after losing at home on the same day last season. After "disappointing" results against Pittsburgh and Carolina in the '05-'06 playoffs, both coaches had to feel that Sunday was more of an opportunity for redemption than a trek into history.

I remember that earlier in the week, Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon both stated that black head coaches don't truly arrive until they become retreads in the system. While I agree with them, there's still something to be said for the achievement, and subsequent renown, of being a champion.

Sure, Smith and Dungy have common bonds surpassing race. They're both Super Bowl coaching rookies. They both came up as defensive coordinators. They're both seen as patient, classy, and true to their word. Oh yeah, and there's that whole teacher-pupil aspect. But in this case, what you see on the outside is making an entire race of people fill with pride.

Smith probably said it best when asked about the topic earlier in the week. "I hope for a day when it is unnoticed, but that day isn't here."

Even when that day comes, there will be something significant about January 21, 2007 ... something noteworthy ... something historic. Glory and legend last forever, and so does a website fact line saying, "First African-American head coach to win a Super Bowl."

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:24 PM | Comments (0)

MVC: Most (Over)Valued Conference

Here's a thought, and I'm just putting this out there: maybe the Missouri Valley is overrated. Maybe the top teams just aren't as good as everybody is making them out to be. Maybe — just maybe — everybody's mid-major hottie is really just a homely girl with lots of make-up, a wig, a glass eye, a stuffed bra, and a fake butt.

Take a look through the standings:

1. Northern Iowa, 15-4, 6-2, RPI: 44, Non-Conference Strength of Schedule: 293

The first thing that jumps out at you is the terrible non-conference strength-of-schedule. Their record is built off the likes of Nicholls State (RPI 293), South Dakota State (318), and Missouri-Kansas City (278). Even their best non-conference wins, over Iowa and Iowa State, are much less impressive than they might be in past years.

The Panthers have racked up two big wins in Valley play, over Southern Illinois and at Missouri State. Those may balance out the losses to Illinois State and Loyola Chicago (a decent Horizon team despite their 107 RPI), but there is much work left to do to overcome that non-conference SOS. Selection Sundays are riddled with teams banished as a result of weak scheduling, and NIU will probably join that group without the auto bid.

2. Southern Illinois, 15-5, 6-3, RPI: 9, NCSOS: 45

When you look at their schedule, it's hard to see how the computer kicks out such a high RPI. Their best non-conference win was a neutral-site five-pointer over Virginia Tech. Their win at Creighton on Saturday was their first impressive road win of the season, breaking a three-game road losing streak to Northern Iowa, Bradley, and Evansville. Of their 14 wins against D1 opposition, nine are against teams with an RPI of 100 or lower.

The Salukis still have two major road tests with visits to Wichita State (2/3) and Missouri State (2/13). They also host Bradley and Creighton. Right now, their RPI says yes, but their schedule says hold on for just a second.

3. Creighton, 12-7, 6-3, RPI: 45, NCSOS: 112

After beating Bradley last Thursday, the preseason pick to win was in sole possession of first place. Then they lost at home to Southern Illinois on Saturday, their first home loss of the season, dropping them into a ties for second.

The Blue Jays have several bad losses, including Nebraska (RPI 88), Fresno State (RPI 111), and Hawaii (RPI 131). Three other losses (Dayton, Indiana State, and Wichita State) came away from their home court, where they are 8-1 this season (including their best non-conference win, a six-pointer over up-and-down A10 leader Xavier).

Can they win a tough game on the road? So far, they have just two road wins, against Evansville and Northern Iowa. Four of their next six are on the road, including trips to Springfield, Peoria, and Carbondale. They needed to hold home court against Southern Illinois.

Right now, I wouldn't bet on the Jays landing an at-large bid. They're certainly not out of the picture, but the non-conference SOS and losses to sub-100 RPI teams may come back to haunt them.

4. Missouri State, 14-5, 5-3, RPI: 31, NCSOS: 66

Everybody's pity-part guest of honor from 2006 has a huge neutral-site win over Wisconsin and impressive showing against Oklahoma State (lost by three in OT). Their worst loss from an RPI standpoint was a one-point loss to St. Louis (RPI 102), where they got robbed because the only TV angle available to the refs showed a last-second tip as counting when later replays showed it as coming after the clock struck zeroes.

Going into last week, Barry Hinson's Bears may have been in the best at-large shape of any of Valley team. They still have the best pure shooter in the conference (Blake Ahearn) and have a quality road win at Bradley in their pocket. Unfortunately for them, they then lost at home to Northern Iowa and on the road to Evansville.

And the dark secret in the closet is that Hinson is the MVC's answer to Marty Schottenheimer. He can't be trusted in a big game. When they get into a first-round game in the MVC Tournament against another at-large candidate (Creighton? Bradley?), it's going to be win or NIT for the Bears. With Hinson at the helm, nobody is Springfield should feel safe.

5. Bradley, 14-7, 5-4, RPI: 35; NCSOS: 43

With the best non-conference SOS in the league, Bradley presents an interesting case. Though only 5-4 in conference play, three of those losses came at Northern Iowa, Wichita State, and Creighton. All are somewhat forgivable, and the win at Indiana State is more impressive considering the other teams that have failed under the same circumstances. If they didn't have an ugly road loss to Tennessee Tech (RPI 156) on their resume, they would be in better shape. The 15-point home win over Wichita State on Saturday will certainly help.

6. Indiana State, 11-7, 4-4, RPI: 71, NCSOS: 157

With the ghost of Larry Bird flying in the rafters, the Sycamores have a dossier of quality home wins over Butler, Purdue, Creighton, and Wichita State. Unfortunately, they have also lost to Middle Tennessee State (RPI 136) and Ball State (RPI 259).

With road losses to Drake on Thursday and Northern Iowa on Saturday, plus visits to Creighton and Southern Illinois in their next three, there's a very good chance Indiana State falls away from the pack before the end of the month. Still, not a bad run for a team picked for the Valley cellar in the pre-season.

7. Evansville, 11-9, 4-5, RPI: 91, NCSOS: 201

There's no shot at an at-large (absolutely none), and I don't see them being able to climb over the top of the league for a miracle run at the auto bid. But like the teams below them, they have what it takes to damage someone else, starting with an impressive win over Missouri State on Saturday. Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Bradley all still have to play on the Aces' home turf.

8. Wichita State, 12-8, 3-6, RPI: 61, NCSOSL 134

With road wins at LSU and Syracuse, I was surprised to see their NCSOS so low. Then I saw their four home wins over 150+ RPI teams, including two 300+ (MD Eastern Shore at 325 and Kennesaw State at 301).

After starting 8-0, the Shockers have gone flat, losing eight of 11. It remains to be seen if they can turn it around, but it's doubtful. There's just too much carnage on the resume to hope for an at-large (though they do have the talent to make a run at the auto bid). This has to go down as one of the most disappointing seasons for any team in the nation (along with Washington in the Pac-10).

9. Illinois State, 11-9, 3-6, RPI: 124, NCSOS: 236

With home wins over Northern Iowa and Wichita State in the last two weeks, at least the Redbirds are still showing some fight. And they are out of the cellar after Saturday's 15-point home win over Drake.

10. Drake, 11-9, 2-7, RPI: 100, NCSOS: 200

The sad thing is they are 2-7 and still play Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State two games each. Perhaps there are some spoiler possibilities, but it doesn't look good.

***

There's one obvious counter-argument to the "overrated" charge, and that's to explain the top teams losing to the bottom teams with the parity line. You've heard it before — "That just goes to show how good the league is one through 10. There's no gimmes in this league. Teams are going to lose. All that proves is the overall strength of the conference."

But that's a bogus argument when it comes to the 2006-2007 Missouri Valley Conference. There are losses to sub-100 RPI teams throughout the league. An astounding seven teams have non-conference strength of schedules below 100 (four below 200) and only Bradley and Southern Illinois are in the top 50.

If there is one thing the Selection Committee has shown over the years, it's a propensity to kill teams over weak scheduling. No team has taken control, and it seems inevitable the lower teams like Illinois State and Evansville will continue to siphon off wins from the bigger-name schools.

So how again is this supposed to be a four- or five-big league?

It's not. They should get three at the most, and the only two with a realistic shot at an at-large are Southern Illinois and Bradley. If one of those two takes the auto bid, this should be a two-bid conference.

(You can begin screaming now.)

Seth Doria is a communications specialist and freelance writer in St. Louis. His wife and many friends went to (Southwest) Missouri State. His book, "Tales From Cube C30005," is not yet written. For more, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 3:06 PM | Comments (16)

January 20, 2007

The Booze, Banter, Betting Theory

David Beckham's arrival in Hollywood is an important moment in the history of Major League Soccer, but not the most important moment.

That's yet to happen.

No, the most important moment will occur when a player of Beckham's star power, history, and ability comes to MLS and the first 25 questions asked aren't centered around his impact on television ratings, gate receipts, and the chances that one of the other four Spice Girls might show up in the owner's box during a game.

The most important moment will be when the first question asked is, "What does this mean for the Galaxy on the field and its chances for winning a championship?"

What MLS lacks is banter. Between fans. On sports radio. The kind of intense discussion of its teams and their game that fuels daily conversations about other sports. That's not to say that there isn't a significant percentage of American soccer fans who understand the sport to the point where they can hold an informed debate about who should be playing where on the pitch, and what one coaching decision could mean for an entire match — I just don't think there's enough of them out there for this conversation to be even close to being mainstream.

I mean, how many casual American soccer fans even know what Beckham's position in Los Angeles will be ... well, you know, other than "Posh on top?"

What soccer lacks in banter, it makes up for in other areas. I've been giving this some thought lately, and wanted to toss this out to you good readers:

The Booze, Banter, and Betting Theory.

I believe a sport's popularity, on a professional or college level, can be directly linked to its fans' ability to debate it, bet it, or use it as the entrance point for a few hours of total inebriation.

In other countries, soccer has the trifecta. Fans can endlessly rant and rave about their favorite teams and players because they have an intrinsic understanding of the sport akin to American's ingrained comprehension of baseball. I'm pretty sure there's a question about the infield fly rule on the U.S. citizenship test.

And where do international soccer fans, especially in Europe and South America, hold most of these discussions? In the friendly confines of a neighborhood pub, bar, or watering hole, of course. Because what is soccer if not a reason to pound Guinness or Dos Equis in-between infrequent goals?

The relative lack of offense in soccer is, of course, one of the reasons why it has trouble meeting the third condition of The Booze, Banter, and Betting Theory, which according to my watch is "betting." Unless you're getting odds on who will win a tournament, you're betting a money-line on an individual match. This used to really suck back in the days when there would be only three choices on a wager: home win, road win or draw. Over the years, tie games started to become pushes, making the wagers a little less dangerous to the better. Still, it's not the greatest sport to bet. So, in the end, The Booze, Banter, and Betting Theory score for soccer would be — on a scale graded 1 (as bad as Marty Schottenheimer in a NFL playoff game) to 10 (as good as Adam Vinatieri in a NFL playoff game):

BOOZE: 10
BANTER: 4
BETTING: 3

What about the rest of sports in America?

FOOTBALL: The NFL and college football are an undeniable heaven-on-Earth for drunks and degenerate gamblers, and especially for drunk degenerate gamblers. Tailgating culture started with football Saturdays and Sundays. Sports bars now build their weekend schedules around the array of flat screen TVs on the walls. And it remains the easiest, and most popular, sport to bet, from bookie slips to office Super Bowl grids. Trust me when I tell you that 140 million people aren't tuning in to see Prince play halftime next month.

Banter is where football falters a little bit, and I'll tell you why: the quarterback. I have Sirius Radio, and I listen to its all-NFL channel with some frequency. Every third caller is some yokel slamming the hell out of his quarterback for everything from a botched fourth-and-one play to the price of popcorn at the stadium. I think football fans have a nice handle on game-to-game dissection of individual moments and plays; when it comes to the overall picture of how to build a winning football team, I think they're slightly less informed than Dan Snyder.

BOOZE: 10
BANTER: 6
BETTING: 10

BASEBALL: Baseball has its own tailgating culture and certainly has its share of infamously boozy crowds (see Field, Wrigley). But the minute they banned beer sales in the bleachers at Yankee Stadium is the minute its score dropped like an Ohio State player's stock in the NFL draft.

Betting? Don't waste my time. The betting line for a Major League Baseball game looks like a data printout from a NASA Supercomputer. The only way it could be more confusing is if John Kerry read it aloud.

But Banter is where baseball destroys every other sport, not only for the near-total understanding of the game by the majority of its fans but because of the comparative history that goes along with it. Any sport where you can literally spend two weeks debating the Randy Johnson trade, while at the same time dissecting Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame creds, has the Banter thing down. Not to mention a winter's worth of Hot Stove League chatter.

BOOZE: 6
BANTER: 10
BETTING: 2

BASKETBALL: Not exactly a drinking man's sport. Too much action, too much leaping, not enough down time. That's why student sections at college games are always hopping up and down — to try and level off their beer-goggled vision before they spew all over the mascot.

Betting the NBA sort of blows because there are too many variables and too many points scored. Betting college basketball, however, has established March Madness as an annual must-see event. If the Super Bowl is a bettor's Christmas, the NCAA tournament is Thanksgiving.

Banter has the historical comparisons of baseball — how many "the next Jordan" debates have you taken part in? — but doesn't have the same on-the-court conversational value as other sports. Too few players, too few scenarios and a salary cap in the NBA that impedes nearly any kind of significant hot stove rumor mongering.

BOOZE: 3
BANTER: 7
BETTING: 7

HOCKEY: I once did tequila shots on a bus with a hockey fan club before arriving at a sports bar for more drinks, getting back on the bus for more shots and then arriving at a game for more beer.

I've also seen plenty of punches thrown in the stands, but hardly ever a full beverage. There's a reason for that.

Betting hockey has become easier now that ties have been eliminated — gee, you don't think that was a factor in establishing a skills competition as a way to end games, do you? — but it's still a hard sport to bet because so many games end in one or two goals.

Banter is an interesting thing for hockey fans, mostly because the majority of it deals with what the men in charge are doing to bastardize the game. (Changing the jerseys? I mean, c'mon.) When it comes to the game itself, I think the die hards understand the sport very well, and can debate everything from who should play on the checking line to the need for a left-handed center on face-offs. The problem with die-hard hockey fans — and I'm one of them — is that we don't necessarily trust that the person we're talking to is into the sport as deeply as we are. (At least that's been my experience, and the experience of other American hockey fans I've spoken to.) There's a load of difference between debating Bobby Crosby vs. Alexander Ovechkin and debating who should be playing with them as a right-handed point shot on the power play; it's a level of hockey geekdom some of us either don't believe exists in other more "casual" fans or are unwilling to accept exists in us.

BOOZE: 9
BANTER: 4
BETTING: 3

GOLF: I wanted one more sport to round out the field, and it was either this, tennis, or NASCAR. Tennis Banter is at an all-time low, with Page 6 rumors more prevalent than any concrete conversation about the game. NASCAR is a drinking sport, but Betting and Banter are mysteries to me; do fans really debate who's in the pit crew and things like that? I mean, seriously...

Golf, however, is an underrated sport for Betting and Booze. While some may bet on PGA events, I think most of the wagering — just like most of the drinking — happens on the greens between foursomes.

As for Banter, there might be some good discussions about individual events and holes every week. But if Tiger doesn't win in four tournaments and someone asks, "What's wrong with Tiger?", I doubt the answer will be informed, insightful, or anywhere near interesting as it would be for other sports.

BOOZE: 6
BANTER: 6
BETTING: 6

So there you have it. Not exactly a scientific study, but I think it offers some insight as to why some sports thrive through the generations while others are perpetually stuck in neutral.

I think one of the glorious things about sports — and in turn The Booze, Banter, and Betting Theory — is that depending on where you live, who you root for and who you root with, it all can fluctuate greatly.

And with that, I'm headed to Jersey to have a beer, bitch about the Jets, and bet on the AFC title game with my dad...

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 10:08 PM | Comments (0)

January 19, 2007

The 2026-2027 NFL Season in Review

Another year has passed into NFL history and the only thing more certain than death and taxes is that the Houston Texans will never be any good. In the nearly 30 years the city has reclaimed an NFL franchise, this organization has only slipped further and further away from its in-state rivals, the Dallas Cowboys.

The only explanation for this team's sixth straight season of 10 or more losses is a Red-Sox-type curse resulting from their trade of Hall of Fame quarterback David Carr, who went on to lead the Miami Dolphins to back-to-back Super Bowls nearly 20 years ago. If the Texans don't go at least .500 this season, I'm putting in my vote to have them relocate to Los Angeles and finally easing the fears of 31 other NFL cities that have been stressing over losing their team since the turn of the century.

Speaking of California: is it to anyone's surprise that the Oakland Raiders, who hold the record for most head coaching changes in the last two decades with 12, have collected a 72-288 record in that span? Mark Davis, learn from your father Al Davis' mistakes and stop with the constant pressure of your head coaches. Just look at the ownership of the Pittsburgh Steelers and their patience with head coach Ron Rivera. They're on only their third coach in the history of the franchise and notice where patience has gotten them: to a third Super Bowl appearance in the last 10 years and a championship ring on their fingers as recently as '25.

While we're on the subject of surprises, how about that rookie first-round wide receiver for the Detroit Lions? How many does that make it? Five in a row? How about this ... next time you have a first overall draft pick, don't pass up quarterback Brady Quinn, who is playing at a level that will make him a lock for the Hall of Fame, to trade down and add more picks.

You needed a franchise quarterback then and you need one now. It's difficult to think of the Brady Quinn-led Cleveland Browns as anything other than a constant Super Bowl contender, but I suppose that's what happens when one of the worst franchises in history passes up who is arguably one of the best quarterbacks in league history to draft a defensive end.

It's amazing to think that the city with the highest unemployment rate in America can still fill up a stadium every Sunday. (And it's only going to be on Sunday because back-to-back 4-12 seasons aren't putting you on Monday night any time soon.)

My predictions for the '27-'28 season?

1. Peyton Manning, Jr. will lose to Ryan Brady and the Pittsburgh Steelers for the third time in a row in the AFC Championship Hame by throwing three interceptions for the third time in a row and miss playing in the Super Bowl FOR THE THIRD TIME IN A ROW.

2. Marty Schottenheimer, the innovator of Martyball and later Anti-Martyball (and its cornerstone, the seven-wide receiver formation) will lead his San Diego Chargers to another successful season.

3. The city of Jacksonville will, once again, rally together in criticism of whoever their starting quarterback is and believe their backup gives them a better chance at winning.

4. The free agent pickup of 44-year-old quarterback Matt Leinart by the Baltimore Ravens will prove incredibly short-sighted and result only in them getting beat early in the playoffs.

5. Brett Favre, at 58, will not retire after this season.

Posted by Ryan Day at 8:12 PM | Comments (2)

January 18, 2007

NFL Predictions: Conference Championships

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ Chicago

In the warm-up to the Super Bowl, also known as the AFC Championship Game, the No. 2-seeded Saints head to chilly Chicago to face the No. 1-seeded Bears. Both teams advanced by identical 27-24 scores; New Orleans beat Philadelphia behind 127 yards rushing and two touchdowns from Deuce McAllister, while Chicago turned back Seattle on Robbie Gould's 49-yard field goal in overtime.

"We plan to attack the Bears just as we attacked the Eagles," says Sean Payton. "Right up the middle with Deuce. You know, there's a name for that kind of power running. No, it's not 'smashmouth football' — we call it 'Dropping a Deuce.' If that fails to make a splash, we'll change the pace with Reggie Bush, and pray that he doesn't get jacked up on a swing pass or fumble a perfect pitch from Drew Brees. If that doesn't work, we'll appeal to the Bears' sense of compassion for the plight of the city of New Orleans. We've been riding that for all its worth. We believe."

Lovie Smith hopes that home-field advantage will aid the Bears quest to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1985. The weather, forecast for partly sunny skies with temperatures in the high 20s, and the natural sod of Soldier Field will help them slow a Saints team accustomed to climate-controlled, artificial turf playing atmosphere. Oddsmakers have the Bears listed as three-point favorites.

"If you want to crown us," says Smith, "then crown our asses! The Saints were who we thought they were! And we let 'em off the hook! Sorry, I can't help doing my Dennis Green impression whenever possible. Speaking of Arizona, that was the game that caused questions to arise about Rex's ability to lead us the the Super Bowl. Six turnovers will do that. But I think Rex's performance last Sunday answered those questions. Unfortunately, the answer to that question is 'maybe.' In Rex's defense, he's had a great week of practice. I've never seen Rex Grossman more focused. I just hope the fact that New Year's Eve is only 344 days from Sunday's game doesn't distract from his preparation. As long as his number of turnovers stays below his quarterback rating, we'll be okay."

What does the NFC Championship Game hold? The Saints will pit their strength, offense, against the Bears' strength, defense. It promises to be physical, heated, and, at times, violent, like a day at the Strahan's. Will the weather affect the Saints? Who knows, but it's not like they haven't known for months now that the NFC championship would likely go through Chicago. Anyway, the Bears seemed to have trouble of their own last week in Chicago, with four fumbles, three by returner-extraordinaire Devin Hester. So let's toss out the weather as a determining factor — both teams have equal access to the full line of Under Armour® cold weather apparel. This game will be decided by quarterback errors.

There's a tennis statistic that will help explain this. No, it's not Maria Sharapova forehand winners, although I'm sure she has several. It's "unforced errors." Rex Grossman leads Drew Brees handily in this category. Grossman always seems to try to escape the inevitable sack, which leads to a loss of 15 yards instead of seven. And, even when he throws a ball away due to pressure or coverage, he still seems to be at risk for an interception. This will cost him.

John Carney's 43-yard field goal in the fourth gives the Saints a 24-23 lead, and Grossman is sacked on fourth down to preserve the New Orleans victory.

Saints win, 24-23.

New England @ Indianapolis

Come on. Even you Baltimore and San Diego fans have to admit that the Patriots/Colts AFC title game promises much more excitement and intrigue than a Chargers win over the Ravens would suggest. Even Baltimore native and literary mastermind Edgar Allan Poe's "The Raven" would agree.

"It's a bore," quoth the Raven. "It's a bore."

The Colts won a soccer match over the Ravens, 15-6, as Adam Vinatieri kicked five field goals to Matt Stover's two, in a game that surely gave Tony Romo nightmares, and set a precedent for red zone futility not seen since K-Fed tried to hook up with Lindsey Lohan. And the dream AFC matchup was set when the classless Patriots vanquished the No. 1-seeded Chargers on Stephen Gostkowski's 31-yard field goal, which sent San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson into a raging hissy fit.

"Look man, there's no dancing on the Chargers mid-field logo," says the league's MVP. "I know cool, and that's not cool. Also, there should absolutely be no parking on the dance floor."

"Okay, I agree that there should be no parking on the dance floor," says Belichick, "particularly by freakazoid robots. But for L.T. to go haywire because a few players mocked Shawne Merriman's sack dance is ridiculous. As far as I know, mocking a sack dance is not against league rules, unlike head-butting and ingesting banned substances. And let's not go overboard on Marty Schottenheimer's coaching ability. He may not be a great big-game coach, but his regular-season record is stellar. People tell me he's a fabulous grandfather; he never forgets a birthday, although I hear he always comes up short around Christmas time."

Let's all bow our heads, face Vatican City, and look back to Week 14 and try to remember if we saw a New England at Indianapolis AFC final. If you said "yes," you're a liar, and/or Nick Saban. On December 10th, the Pats were shutout at Miami 21-0, while the Colts were destroyed 44-17 in Jacksonville while surrendering 375 yards rushing.

"Everyone always talks about a team's 'identity,'" says the cute and cuddly Tony Dungy. "Well, after that Jacksonville game, it was time for an 'identity theft,' so we pilfered the identity of the 2005 Steelers. You know, an aggressive defense with an offense led by an error-prone quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger proved last year that a crappy quarterback can win a Super Bowl, so Peyton's tried to model his game after Big Ben's, just without the silly Fathead commercials, motorcycle wrecks, and facial reconstructions. And, Peyton's got a new best friend, Adam Vinatieri, who's a kicker, not an idiot, and 'so money.'"

Defense kept the Colts and Patriots in last week's game while their respective offenses sputtered, but that won't be the case Sunday. Manning passed for 326 yards and two touchdowns when Indy beat New England 27-20 in Week 9, and you know the Colts defense does not intimidate Tom Brady, who has lost as many Super Bowls as Manning has appeared.

"Damn, I'm Brady-licious," says Brady. "Let me ask the people of Indianapolis one thing: 'Don't you wish your quarterback was hot like me?' I thought so. This whole 'Colts and defense' thing is way overblown. Two good games does not make a defense. Peyton should take comfort in that because two losses in AFC championship games does not define a quarterback. I hope the zoologist makes night calls, because late Sunday, Peyton's still going to have the monkey on his back."

After the Colts jump out to a 10-0 lead, it looks like the route is on. But never count the Patriots out, especially since they're playing the Colts, it's Sunday, and Brady took particular care applying his eye black, although the game is indoors. Tom Terrific leads the Pats to a 17-17 tie at half-time, and later, down 30-28, drives the Pats to the Indy 40, in position for a 57-yard field goal. Instinctively, Vinatieri runs on to the field, incurring a five-yard penalty for twelve men on the field. New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski lines up for a 52-yarder, and his kick barely clears the crossbar.

New England wins, 31-30.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:01 PM | Comments (4)

FedEx Cup: Delivering Results?

We're now two weeks into the brand new era in golf that is the FedEx Cup. Through two events, Vijay Singh is the first ever consecutive-week leader of the points-based playoff system. By virtue of his win at the Mercedes-Benz Championship, Singh scored 4,500 FedEx Cup points. Of course, winning the first ever FedEx Cup event would make you the leader of the series. Vijay followed up his victory at Kapalua with a tie for 34th place at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He earned a measly 121 FedEx Cup points for the performance.

Those 121 points were enough, though, to ensure that he maintained his lead for at least one more week. Paul Goydos scrapped and clawed his way to victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii. For winning the first full field event of the 2007 season, Goydos earned the same 4,500 points that Vijay Singh won by winning the Mercedes-Benz Championship.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Hold the presses. That means that, in the eyes of the FedEx Cup, the Mercedes-Benz and Sony events are basically worth the same to win. Being completely honest, though, or completely obvious, these two events have nothing in common except that they're both held in Hawaii.

The Mercedes-Benz Championship is a limited field event. It is an invitation-only tournament that is contested among players that had a victory on the PGA Tour in the prior season. With withdrawals and players that did not participate, only 33 players finished all 72 holes of the event. This means that Vijay Singh beat 32 other golfers in order to earn the 4,500 FedEx Cup points awarded to the event champion.

Ignore for a moment that the quality of the 32 golfers in that field is higher than the average PGA Tour event. The sheer lack of entries makes this event a little bit easier to win than a full field PGA Tour event. Yes, that was part of the point of having a guaranteed payday event like this one as a reward for performance in the prior season. But should that carry over to the new FedEx Cup? Consider that even last-place finisher Ben Curtis, who finished a ridiculous 34 shots out of the lead, picked up 148 FedEx Cup points by virtue of just finishing the event. What an accomplishment.

Now, fast forward one week, when Paul Goydos is the champion of the Sony Open in Hawaii. He picks up 4,500 points for finishing in first. He also did not beat 32 other golfers. Instead, he beat 140 other golfers for the title. One could say that while Goydos did beat 140 other golfers that the comparison is not completely valid, since not all of those golfers played all four rounds. Fine. Seventy-two golfers made the cut this past week. Even using that number, Goydos defeated double the number of golfers that Vijay Singh did, but earned the same amount of FedEx Cup points for the feat. It seems a bit lopsided in one direction.

You may agree with the above and think that Goydos should have more FedEx Cup points because he beat more golfers in a full-field event. That argument may not hold up, though, to those who believe that strength of field would be a better consideration for awarding points to winners on the PGA Tour.

The field at Kapalua for the Mercedes-Benz Championship is, in principle, supposed to be stronger than that of the Sony Open. Though there is a lot of crossover between the two events, it is presumed that a collection of champions from last season is greater than a full field of tour veterans and rookies, winners, and not-so-much winners. If you are of this opinion, you should still be outraged because then you believe that Vijay Singh beat a superior field and his win is still considered to be equal to that of ... Paul Goydos?!

Personally, I hold that Goydos should have received more points for beating more golfers. I think this because the difference in talent level between golfers at all levels of the PGA Tour is very small. The difference between receiving an invitation to Kapalua and not is so small that the fields in the Aloha Swing are fairly similar. The FedEx Cup does not recognize strength of field, though, in how it distributes points.

Points in the FedEx Cup are distributed to among the players that make the cut for that week's event. In the case of the Mercedes-Benz Championship, there is no cut. Thus, every player that successfully finishes the event earns some FedEx Cup points. (Just call that a perk of winning on Tour.)

Let's return, now, to the example of Ben Curtis. As mentioned, Curtis finished dead last at the Mercedes-Benz Championship and earned 148 points for his efforts. 25,000 FedEx Cup points were available in that event. As a percentage of the points awarded, Curtis picked up approximately 0.6% of the points available.

Looking at the final leaderboard for the Sony Open in Hawaii, 72 golfers made the cut and finished the tournament. That means that 72 golfers earned FedEx Cup points for the event. Tom Lehman was the low man on the totem pole among those who made the cut. He earned 49 points for his performance, which comes out to just about 0.2% of the total points available (the same 25,000 available for the Mercedes-Benz).

While Cap'n Lehman was in the same percentile as Ben Curtis among those who made money in their respective events, Lehman did manage to beat over 70 other golfers on his way to the 72nd-place finish. Despite that, Curtis earned approximately three times the number of points that Lehman did by beating no one. Again, something appears very crooked about that. Ben Curtis beat no one and got 148 points. Tom Lehman beat a whole lot of golfers and got 49 points. Someone explain this injustice to me in a way that is rational.

It does not take much to see that there are still plenty of kinks to be worked out when it comes to the FedEx Cup. It is only natural considering this is the first year of it being staged. Through two weeks, though, it has become obvious that limited field events will become point grabs for the FedEx Cup just like they used to be known as money grabs for the top players. Add in that there are bonus points assigned to the World Golf Championships events, known notoriously as free pay days, and it becomes more apparent that the FedEx Cup is catered to ensure the success of the Tour's staple players.

In the end, if the system holds under this structure, the FedEx Cup is self-defeating. It was already difficult to conceive how the best players on Tour could miss the playoff series because the top 144 golfers on the points list would make that first event — a task that does not sound all that challenging. By porking limited field events with extra points, though, the Tour only assures the top players that they have a spot locked up in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

In turn, this means that top players which may have been motivated to play in more events by a potential $10 million pay-out no longer have to adjust their desktop calendars from last season. They have a spot secured for Westchester. That works out for the fans to mean that, under the current guidelines, most of the best players will not enter more events just because of the FedEx Cup. Then again, they probably knew that was the case when Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods decided not to play at Kapalua.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 9:40 PM | Comments (1)

NHL's Shooting Stars Headed to Dallas

Much has been said about the NHL's new look. Nineteen players will be making their first appearance as all-stars. Leading the way in votes for the youngsters are Sydney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin for the Eastern Conference. Once the puck is dropped, everyone is going to want to see if these two can come together and create some magic.

The Western Conference will be quarterbacked by the likes of Joe Sakic and Joe Thornton, who need no further introduction. The starting goaltenders will be Ryan Miller and Roberto Luongo.

The All-Star Break is also a good time to reward surprising players with a spot on the roster. Not many expected Buffalo's Brian Campbell and Montreal's Sheldon Souray to be there. But they are also on their way to Dallas and they deserve it.

I was ecstatic when I saw that the Oilers' Ryan Smith was going to suit up for the West. An injury slowed down the first half of his season. His comeback, leadership, and heart won him this spot for sure and I couldn't be happier. He's one of the truest warriors this sport has seen evolve.

Just like the MLB Home Run Derby, the NHL Skills Competition has become almost as popular as the All-Star Game itself. Don't be surprised to see the hardest shot record getting beat once again this year. Blame it on the sticks. They may break like twigs, but they produce rockets when they don't.

The All-Star Game brings back so many good memories for me: Wayne Gretzky facing off against Mario Lemieux; Ray Bourque beating the pants off everyone at the accuracy contest; Al MacInnis dominating the hardest shot contest; Gordie Howe's last appearance at age 51.

It's simply impossible not to mention the end of the story that put this year's edition of the midseason classic on the map. I'm referring, of course, to the Rory Fitzpatrick saga. Despite seeing 550,177 votes go his way, Rory came up just short of reaching the starting line-up for the West. Although many think his exclusion was a conspiracy, I think this story would have only attracted negative attention to the star-studded affair.

Many hockey enthusiasts will choose to snub the event. In some way, it's tough to argue with their stance. It's important to understand that the NHL All-Star Game is governed by a number of unwritten rules and suggestions. For those who are not familiar with them, here's a peek. They stop this game from becoming an unparalleled spectacle.

1. No hitting. I understand this rule, but at what point does hockey turn into ringette?

2. Don't skate too hard. Again, I understand. If you were a Kansas City entrepreneur, you wouldn't want Sidney Crosby to pull a muscle either.

3. For Defensemen: leave your goaltender out to dry at least 20 times. I guarantee that Jacques Martin won't like watching this one!

4. For Goalies: smile while the staff in Dallas is forced to change the mesh of your net between periods.

5. For coaches: enjoy the rest. Your systems and motivational speeches are not welcome here. Ponder becoming a coach in the NFL while looking at the final score.

6. For Rory Fitzpatrick: don't despair. Just shave your legs. I hear the Miss Universe pageant will be decided via Internet balloting, too. Better start your campaign early, my friend.

Posted by J.D. Conway at 9:12 PM | Comments (0)

January 17, 2007

A Closer Look: NBA in the New Year

* Detroit Pistons head coach Flip Saunders may have lost his best chance to win an NBA championship when Ben Wallace departed to the division-rival Chicago Bulls in the offseason. It seems to me that Saunders, who Kevin Garnett once described as "a very players' coach," has a limited shelf-life in Detroit.

When he arrived in Motown, many of the players, eager to show that they were a championship team regardless of who the coach was, seemed to tune him out at times. This was especially evident when he butted heads with Big Ben last year. This year, Saunders has already somewhat alienated Detroit's two main free agent acquisitions, Nazr Mohammed and Ronald Murray. On top of that, Rasheed Wallace seems to be reverting back to some old bad habits from his Portland days and that obviously just makes Saunders' job that much harder.

In my opinion, Saunders' exuberant style of coaching and his "players' coach" mentality would serve him much better in the college game. Coincidentally, there is an open job in the college ranks that would seem to suit Saunders to a tee. This is the University of Minnesota job. Not only is Saunders a former Golden Gopher himself, but he is well-known and well-respected in the Twin Cities due to his success as coach of the Timberwolves. The cherry on top is that Saunders' son, Ryan, is on the University of Minnesota squad right now. So, if Saunders were to take the Gophers' job, he would not only be coaching the type of players that suit his style the best, but he would be coming home with an opportunity that many coaches can only dream of — the opportunity to coach their own kid.

* Speaking of Minnesota, don't sleep on the Timberwolves. The aforementioned Kevin Garnett is playing like an MVP again (not that he ever stopped). There are two differences between this year and last year, however, that should put K.G. in the MVP discussion by the end of the year. The first is that he's got a pretty decent squad around him. Mark Blount, Ricky Davis, and Trenton Hassell have been playing out of their minds and two rookies, Randy Foye and Craig Smith have been real finds and legitimate contributors. Second, this team has been building a chemistry that's very reminiscent of the Detroit team that won the title a few years back.

Offensively, the Wolves are improving game by game and the team is already one of the best defensive squads in the association. Evidence of this improved chemistry can be found by looking at the team's recent hot streak. Their only loss thus far in 2007 was a one-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers and they aren't beating patsies for their victories. For instance, two of their most recent victories were against an incredibly hot Houston team and the always-dominant San Antonio Spurs.

Considering that the team's big offseason signing, Mike James, has still not totally asserted himself, that talented big man Eddie Griffin has been a non-factor thus far, and that last year's first-rounder, Rashad McCants, still has yet to play this season, the surprisingly 20-16 T-Wolves look as though they have enough to actually improve. Once again, don't sleep on this team. If Minnesota can continue to gradually build chemistry throughout the year and become a team comparable to the well-oiled machine that the Pistons were a few years back, they may be a force to be reckoned with come playoff-time and the Big Ticket may once again hoist the MVP trophy.

* The Chicago Bulls are definitely a championship contender based on defense. Offensively, however, they need to improve in order to be considered as championship front-runners. Kirk Hinrich has not been as aggressive this year as he has been in the past. Although Ben Wallace is a great defensive player, his offensive woes have been legendary throughout his career. When the Bulls need scoring, they look to Ben Gordon. Unfortunately, Gordon isn't the type of player the Bulls should be counting on to win games for them. His shot and his production are very inconsistent and he has never shown the ability to be effective as a starter. The Bulls need to add one more scorer, preferably in the front court, to make sure that they have the ability to put up points even if Gordon is off.

Chicago sportswriters have become famous for concocting hypothetical trades for Kevin Garnett, but with Minnesota's recent success, these hypos are looking more and more like pipe dreams. Recently, Pau Gasol's name has been bandied about and he would be a great fit for this team. The one name to keep an eye on, however, is Jermaine O'Neal, who has recently been making noise about possibly wanting to leave Indiana. Although it would take a lot to get the Pacers to trade their superstar — especially within the division — these teams have made blockbuster deals before and the Bulls are loaded with talent up and down the roster. If they wanted to make a play for a big man like O'Neal, they definitely would have the pieces.

* A friend recently re-introduced me to that old Eagle-Eye Cherry song, "Save Tonight." Okay, I guess there is only that one Eagle-Eye Cherry song, so the name isn't all that important, but I digress. Anyway, the point of the song is that Eagle-Eye is leaving his girl and he wants to make sure that he and the girl both make the most of what they have and appreciate their past together during their one final night with each other. How does this relate to basketball? I'm glad you asked. When I hear this song, I can't help but think of the New Jersey Nets and their fans. I'm sure that's exactly what Mr. Cherry intended, right?

Allow me to elaborate. New Jersey fans, it's time that you start looking at Jason Kidd as if he were Eagle-Eye Cherry and you were his girl. (By the way, this analogy has nothing to do with Kidd's well-publicized marital woes. I promise.) He's probably leaving. As each day goes by, the rumors of Kidd's departure become louder and louder. Sure, rumors are circulated about many athletes without ever coming to fruition and I would discard these particular rumors if the idea of Kidd leaving didn't make so much sense.

The Nets are operating with a big three (Kidd, Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter) that is as good or better than any three-man combo in the league. The problem is that none of these guys is a big man and the Nets are in desperate need of a big man. Compounding the problem is that the Nets don't have too many players on their roster outside of this big three that have any trade value except for Marcus Williams. Williams, however, is the heir-apparent to the aging Kidd, so he's not going anywhere. Furthermore, Kidd, although aging and reaching the point in his career where many players start physically breaking down, is still a very productive player with significant trade value. That value, however, is going to continue to decline and Kidd himself will probably be a less happy camper as time goes on because his history tells us he often wears out his welcome.

Nets fans, don't kid yourselves. The days of this team reaching the NBA Finals are over. If the Nets want to make it back to the championship, then they need to take a serious look at rebuilding while their superstars have high trade values. Kidd should be the first to go because he's older, has been known to make waves, and has a successor waiting in the wings. Kidd would be happy because anyone who acquires him now would be trying to win a title. A Jason Kidd deal makes more sense now than ever. So, Nets fans, pop in the Eagle-Eye Cherry CD and "save tonight and fight the break of dawn." You never know — come tomorrow, Jason Kidd might be gone. Enjoy him while he's still there.

* Please read carefully before reading the rest of this. Steve Nash is a great player. Steve Nash is a great ambassador for the game. Steve Nash is one of the classiest players in the NBA. These are my opinions. It's also my opinion, however, that Nash is a little over-hyped and overrated. Yes, he has in the past and still continues to produce gaudy statistical numbers. How much of that has to do with him, however? How much can be attributed to the system? How much can be attributed to the fact that the Phoenix Suns play no defense?

Steve Nash is one of the best point guards in the league, but the fact that he's a two-time MVP is ridiculous. There's a reason Nash never put up the same types of numbers in Dallas that he's putting up in Phoenix. The reason is because Phoenix runs a different type of offensive system. Granted, it is a system that ideally suits Nash, and because of this I have a hard time believing that Nash can have the same impact on a different team. Suns games feature more possessions than normal games, thus increasing the ability to accumulate more numbers. At some point, Phoenix coach, Mike D'Antoni should get some of Nash's credit.

Moreover, part of the reason that the Suns play in games with so many possessions is because they are such a lousy defensive squad. Nash is one of the worst defenders on this lousy defensive team. Part of the reason the Suns can generate so many possessions is because they allow their opponents to score pretty easily. The easier the opposition scores, the sooner Phoenix gets the ball back. The bigger impact is that Nash is allowed to kick back on defense and exert all of his energy on offense.

This is not something that should be overlooked. Watch any NBA game and you will instantly see how defense takes a physical toll on those actually attempting play it. Name another recent MVP that has had this luxury of playing only one side of the ball. Garnett? Tim Duncan? Shaquille O'Neal? There isn't one. How is this offense-only approach different from the designated hitter in baseball?

Sure, one can argue that Nash makes his teammates better, but is it just Nash himself that does this? No. It's a combination of Nash's greatness coupled with D'Antoni's system that makes those around Nash better. One can point to the improvement of the Suns since Nash's arrival as evidence of his greatness, but I, in turn, will point to Nash's former team, the Dallas Mavericks, to demonstrate that the argument goes both ways. After all, the Mavericks actually improved without him. Steve Nash is a fantastic NBA player. I just don't think he's a one-time MVP, let alone a two-time MVP.

Posted by Kiarash Banisadre at 11:21 PM | Comments (5)

Another Big Super Bowl Letdown?

It's still weeks away, and I already feel like Super Bowl XLI is going to be one of the most boring sporting events of my lifetime.

Actually, it's pretty much guaranteed. So far this playoffs, almost every game's been great, and we've seen several memorable moments, from Shoe-Horn Hands Romo to the New England Patriots' Shawn Merriman impression.

The conference championship games also look to be entertaining, or at least compelling from a potential storyline perspective.

What? You're not excited about another week of Joe Buck talking about how much the Saints mean to the city of New Orleans?

Seriously, the NFC title will be decided in sub-freezing Chicago weather and Peyton Manning will have perhaps his best shot yet to oust the Pats from the playoffs, and the noise of a packed RCA Dome should drown out his last excuse.

Tom Brady's got the rings and good looks, while all Peyton gets is stuck with some extremely homely features and a few of Dan Marino's records. If he doesn't beat Brady this time, he might as well just go pickup his little brother in New York and head for the Mexican border.

But even if Manning crumbles like a Drake's Coffee Cake, he promises to put on a good show, much like the Saints, who I expect will fall victim to just how good their story really is.

It would be great to see the Colts and Saints in the Super Bowl: which is why there's almost no way that will actually happen.

No, no. Instead, the Patriots will eek past Indy in some ludicrous last-second scenario that involves Brady getting hit, throwing the ball off his own lineman's head, catching it again, trying to run, breaking a tackle, and eventually lateraling to Jabar Gaffney, who snaps off a 72-yard touchdown as time expires.

Friggin' great. Now it's the Bears and Patriots in the Super Bowl and the best thing anyone will come up with to talk about is how the Patriots have been there three of the last five years while Chicago, you know, hasn't.

And what follows will be an absolute slaughter, as the Pats' defense feasts on Rex Grossman like a fat camp escapee at a Mandarin Buffet.

Cue the endless celebration shots of Brady picking confetti out of his chiseled chin, Bill Belichick in what I swear is a woman's hooded sweatshirt, and a bunch of previously-average receivers that are apparently amazing all of the sudden.

Throw in some gratuitous use of the word "dynasty" and a few cracks about how Dennis Green was right about the Bears, and voila, you have another really lame Super Bowl.

Brian Urlacher will go back to making Chunky Soup commercials and we'll all call it a big, boring day.

It'll be just like Week 1, but with larger nacho platters, Prince, and million dollar commercials spots.

And that's why we love the NFL.

You always hear about parity and how it's a totally unpredictable league, but if there's one thing you can usually bet on, it's that the final game, like New Year's Eve, is almost always a big disappointment.

You know what they say: on any given Sunday, the Super Bowl will suck.

For more of Aaron Miller's opinionated, humorous sports ramblings, visit GrandstandAdmissions.com.

Posted by Aaron Miller at 11:18 PM | Comments (0)

2007 ATP Season Has Major Shoes to Fill

In 2006, we saw a legend leave the game, an unprecedented run of domination by a legend-in-the-making, and the emergence of the best tennis rivalry since Andre Agassi/Pete Sampras. Perhaps the only thing the ATP lacked last season was unpredictability, as Roger Federer rolled through the three Grand Slams he is always expected to win, while Rafael Nadal repeated at Roland Garros.

With the Australian Open, the unofficial grand opening of the professional tennis season, suddenly upon us, it's time to recap the best of the best of 2006 and look ahead to 2007.

Player of the Year: Roger Federer

After Rafael Nadal waxed Federer in the French Open final, extending his 2006 record against the world No. 1 to 4-0, it looked like the Player of the Year award was up for grabs for the first time since 2003. Federer quickly erased such a notion, however, restoring order to the Federer/Nadal rivalry by exacting revenge in the Wimbledon title match and consolidating that with a semifinal win at the year-end Masters Cup in Shanghai. After disposing of Nadal in straight sets, Federer erased James Blake in the final match of the season, a fitting end to an incredible year. He compiled a ludicrous 92-5 record in 2006, reached the finals of every tournament he entered except one, and added 12 titles, including three more majors.

2007 projection: Federer. Obviously. Nadal is the only player with a chance of outdoing Federer in 2007, but even that possibility is slighter than slight. Perhaps if the ATP extended the clay-court season one or two more months at the expense of the hard-court U.S. Open Series, Nadal would be able to put up Federer-like numbers. But since that's not happening, we have every reason to believe that once again the Spaniard will swagger through May and June while Federer cleans up the rest of the season.

Assuming that nobody outside of tennis's dynamic duo wins a major this season, Nadal will have to match Federer with two in order to have any chance of ending the year at the top. Wimbledon is basically a foregone conclusion in Federer's favor, as is the U.S. Open considering Federer's recent dominance and Nadal's shortcomings at Flushing Meadows. That means Nadal will have to come out of the gates swinging Down Under, as he has a much better chance on the rebound-ace courts of Melbourne than he does on the super-fast surfaces of New York.

Match of the Year: Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer, Rome Final

The only thing missing from this one was the grandeur of the stage. If this match had been a Grand Slam final — say, at Roland Garros - it would live in tennis lore forever. Sure, a Masters Series final is not too shabby, but it's no Grand Slam. People without access to the Tennis Channel on their home televisions most likely never have and never will see this match. They missed a classic.

After five hours and five minutes of grueling tennis, Nadal emerged victorious 6-7(0), 7-6(5), 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(5). But not before Federer had the king of clay on the brink of defeat. After pulling even with a convincing performance in the fourth set, Federer surged to a 4-1 lead in the fifth. Even after Nadal got the break back, Rafa still found himself on the verge of being upset, serving at 5-6, 15-40. Double match point for Federer.

Nadal, however, slugged it out from the baseline on both points and coaxed Federer into making two forehand errors. Two points later and what we had on our hands was the only thing fit to separate the two titans of tennis — a fifth set tiebreaker. In keeping with the trend of their head-to-head rivalry, Nadal played the big points better and capitalized on his first match point to win the 'breaker 7-5.

Runner-up:: Andy Roddick vs. Dmitry Tursunov, Davis Cup Semifinals

Non-tennis channel folk were also deprived of this one. What they missed was a match that lasted four hours and 48 minutes and a scoreline that takes almost as long to read: Tursunov d. Roddick 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 17-15. The American served for the match at 6-5 in the fifth after earning his only break of the set, but Tursunov struck back immediately. The two then held serve a combined 18 consecutive times before the Russian finally broke to win the match and clinch the Davis Cup tie in front of the hometown crowd.

The 72 games played by Roddick and Tursunov tied a Davis Cup World Group record, as did the 32 games in the fifth frame. What's equally amazing considering the unparalleled pressure of the Davis Cup is that it was high-quality tennis throughout, even in the waning moments of the grueling final set.

2007 projection: Obviously, this is something you can't predict, but with Andre Agassi out of the picture, Nadal and Federer could have the tennis stage all to themselves. If the 2007 French Open final once again arrives with Nadal being the only thing standing between Federer and the immortality of a career Grand Slam, this would be a must-watch for all sports fans. While Federer clearly has the advantage on grass and hard courts, it would be a surprise if these two didn't go the distance this time around at Roland Garros.

Moment of the Year: Andre Agassi's Farewell Speech, Arthur Ashe Stadium

It's tough for me to continue reminding myself about this, but I could have been front row for this moment. Instead, I left my primetime seat after the second set, planning to return to see Agassi bid adieu, as even though he somehow pulled out the set it was clear that only a major miracle would allow his body to produce yet another improbable victory. Fully immersed in the Marat Safin/David Nalbandian thriller from box seats in Louis Armstrong, I rolled the dice by hoping this match would turn out to be some epic five-setter and praying that Agassi would also extend his match to five sets, thus allowing me time to see the conclusions of both.

Sure enough, Safin/Nalbandian did turn out to be a classic, with the Russian prevailing 8-6 in the fifth set tiebreaker. But because Benjamin Bleepin' Becker ended Agassi's career too soon for my — and everyone else's — liking, I was left to commemorate Agassi's end with the rest of the unfortunates in Louis Armstrong by giving the legend about a two-minute standing ovation. Even Safin and Nalbandian appeared more than willing to interrupt their match for the occasion, even though they were in the middle of a decisive fifth set.

The whole thing was nice, but it surely did not compare to the scene just a few yards away in Arthur Ashe Stadium. Only a too-good-to-be-true exit as U.S. Open champion would have been more perfect that this sendoff. Tears flowed throughout Arthur Ashe Stadium as the crowd had the privilege of hearing the heartfelt closing speech from a man whose ability to connect with American tennis fans was simply unprecedented. It's never easy to see goodbye, but there's no better way to say it than to thousands of adoring fans at a venue that gave you two Grand Slam championships.

Runner-up:: Andre Agassi vs. Marcos Baghdatis, U.S. Open Second Round

If the Nadal/Federer clash in Rome had it all, this one had everything and more. It didn't quite achieve the same standard of play — no other match in 2006 did — but I'm pretty sure not one person left Arthur Ashe stadium bemoaning that fact. What those lucky souls witnessed was a match that will live in U.S. Open lore forever; and that's even if it had not turned out to be the last victory of Andre Agassi's career.

While the 21-year-old Cypriot seemed overwhelmed by the atmosphere in the early going, Agassi came out like a man possessed. And he was. Agassi seized the first two sets 6-4 and 6-4, yet even then the pervading feeling in the stands was that the ailing Agassi had to finish Baghdatis in straight sets.

Even though the scoreboard said two sets to none, the third set felt like it would be a decisive one. That feeling certainly carried over to the fourth set after Baghdatis took the third 6-3. When Agassi surged to a seemingly insurmountable 4-0 lead, the youngster started playing as if he had nothing to lose while the aging veteran's form turned suddenly into something that almost suggested he knew his body would not be able to stand a third-round match. Baghdatis would even the match at two sets a piece by taking the fourth 7-5.

Somehow, neither Agassi nor the Arthur Ashe faithful threw in the towel. Not even after Baghdatis broke Agassi in the opening game of the final set. Agassi broke back immediately. Neither player could regain the upper hand, but Baghdatis soon stumbled upon a golden opportunity in an epic ninth game of the set. With Agassi serving at 4-4 and an almost unbearable tension enveloping the stadium, Baghdatis began cramping. Perhaps it was the Cypriot's physical travails that caused Agassi's mind to begin suffering equally severe cramps. It's always difficult to play against an injured opponent, and Agassi donated three match points in that service game to the hobbled Baghdatis. He saved them all and finally took the game to lead 5-4.

Baghdatis then held serve to stay in it before Agassi regained a slim lead at 6-5. For a match far more exhausting — for both the players and fans — than even the three hours and 48 minutes would suggest, a fifth-set tiebreaker simply would have been too much. When Agassi broke Baghdatis to cap off a 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 7-5 victory, he left his throngs of supporters wondering if what they had just seen actually happened. Agassi, too, knew that things of this magnitude are rare. "You're not guaranteed these moments," he said in his post-match press conference. "To feel it out there was something I can keep with me forever."

Newcomer of the Year: Novak Djokovic

The 19-year-old Serbian started 2006 ranked 78th and ended the year at No. 16 in the world. Djokovic enjoyed his coming-out party at the French Open, where he reached the quarterfinals before bowing out to eventual champion Rafael Nadal. En route to the quarters, Djokovic posted three enormous wins in-a-row, defeating Fernando Gonzalez, Tommy Haas, and Gael Monfils. He then proved his grass-court ability by reaching the fourth round of Wimbledon. There, Djokovic had Mario Ancic on the brink of elimination and the youngster seemed poised to reach his second straight Grand Slam quarterfinal, but Ancic ultimately prevailed in five sets.

The Serbian bounced back immediately, however, reaching the first two ATP finals of his career at back-to-back clay-court tournaments, winning one in The Netherlands.

It looks like Djokovic's meteoric rise will continue, as he won the season-opening tournament in Adelaide, Australia. Don't be surprised if the youngster breaks into the top 10 right around his 20th birthday in May.

2007 projection: Chris Guccione. By writing this a week into the season I had the benefit of seeing Guccione's first effort of 2007, and without that, I must admit I would not have considered him here. The 6'7'' Aussie entered the year ranked 153 in the world and left Adelaide just seven spots away from cracking the top 100. Such an ascension happens when you roll through round-robin play unscathed and two matches later find yourself in your first ever ATP final. That's just what Guccione did, and in the process he took out Benjamin Becker, Arnaud Clement, and best of all Richard Gasquet.

I'm not too excited about any other unproven youngsters right now, but I'm going to go out on a limb with this name: Evegeny Korolev. Korolev is an 18-year-old Russian who is just outside the top 100 right now and I think he could be close to the top 30 by season's end. He put up nice results in a number of Challenger events last season and also did a bit of damage on the main circuit. In the second round of the French Open, the youngster even took Gaston Gaston Gaudio, a former champion at Roland Garros, to five sets. This past week in Auckland, Korolev escaped one-set deficits to overcome both Hyung-Taik Lee and Robby Ginepri before losing to James Blake in the quarterfinals. Needless to say, the present is pretty darn good for the 18-year-old, and the future looks even better.

Comeback Player of the Year: Martina Hingis

While this article had been strictly about the ATP Tour (and not the WTA) up to this point, I just couldn't help but make an exception here. First of all, nobody in the men's game returned from the depths to resurrect a career. To say Martina Hingis did would be an understatement. Hingis essentially took three entire years off from tennis between 2003 and 2005, but her triumphant return to the game in 2006 was shockingly swift.

Hingis announced her presence with authority right from the start, reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. The Swiss Miss matched that effort at Roland Garros, and by the time the year ended, Hingis found herself at No. 7 in the world. Even in a season that saw one woman reach all four Grand Slam finals (Justine Henin-Hardenne) and another win her first two majors (Amelie Mauresmo), Hingis just about stole the show.

2007 projection: Joachim Johansson

Unless you follow pro tennis religiously, you probably think this guy fell off the face of the earth. After reaching a career-high ranking at No. 9 in the world in February 2005, Johansson endured a devastating freefall that hit rock-bottom when he underwent shoulder surgery in July of that year. He didn't win another ATP Tour level match until October of 2006. Before season's end, Johansson had wins over both the second and third-ranked players in the world in Nadal and Nikolay Davydenko, respectively.

But because both wins took place during the post-U.S. Open doldrums of the tennis season, it pretty much went unnoticed. Well, take notice now. The huge-serving Swede is off to a nice start in 2007, having reached the semifinals of the season-opening tournament in Adelaide. Johansson is still suffering from various health problems heading into the Australian Open, but right now it looks like that's the only thing that can stop him from making an emphatic statement in 2007. That statement, quite simply, is that he's back.

Blogger of the Year: Dmitry Tursunov

Not even the ATP website could resist going the way of the weblog in 2006. And it's a good thing it didn't resist, especially for Dmitry Tursunov, who typed his way to fame with an outrageously entertaining blog. After thrilling readers with a behind-the-scenes look at his week at the Estoril Open in May, Tursunov became the ATP website's "resident blogger."

One player per week blogs from a tournament, and almost all of them are well worth stopping by for a daily read. When the "Tursunov Tales" make what's supposed to now be a monthly appearance, stop whatever you're doing and immerse yourself in Tursunov's unforgettable penmanship.

2007 projection: Tursunov!!!!!!!!!!! (If you've read his blog, you understand the exclamation points.)

And with that, I hope I've left you as fired up for the 2007 ATP season as I am. It certainly is a year that sure has some big shoes to fill in the wake of an unforgettable 2006.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 9:59 PM | Comments (2)

January 16, 2007

NFL Divisional Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* Note to Greg Gumbel: actually, Colts/Ravens is not "as fierce and as heated a rivalry as there is in football." What a ridiculous thing to say.

* Okay. Who had Dominic Rhodes as the leading rusher in that game? Not Jamal Lewis or Joseph Addai? Didn't see that coming.

* I think the K-ball is too slippery. Forget Tony Romo, how many returners dropped the thing this weekend? Terrence Wilkins muffed a punt, Eric Parker had a crucial, game-turning muff, and Devin Hester fumbled three times.

* The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced this year's finalists: Fred Dean, Richard Dent, Russ Grimm, Ray Guy, Gene Hickerson, Michael Irvin, Bob Kuechenberg, Bruce Matthews, Art Monk, Andre Reed, Charlie Sanders, Paul Tagliabue, Derrick Thomas, Thurman Thomas, Andre Tippett, Roger Wehrli, Gary Zimmerman.

* Six of those guys can get in. My choices: Hickerson, Matthews, Monk, Tagliabue, Thurman Thomas, and Wehrli.

***

Divisional Roundups

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Does anyone in the postseason realize that the Colts struggle to stop the run? Kansas City apparently didn't, because Larry Johnson only got 13 carries. Baltimore apparently didn't, because Jamal Lewis also got 13 carries. And evidently, even the Colts didn't, because they've only allowed 127 rushing yards, total, in their last two games.

It was reasonable to expect that the Ravens might have watched last week's game between the Colts and Chiefs, and committed to the run in a way Kansas City failed to. Evidently not, though, because the Ravens passed 50% more than they ran, and gave Lewis exactly the same number of carries that Johnson had the week before. Baltimore's self-destruction on offense was truly amazing. The team converted only two of its 11 third downs. One reason was the distance. The Ravens didn't put themselves in short-distance situations, so their average distance to go on third down was 7.5. And on five of those third downs, Steve McNair completed a pass, but for less yardage than the team needed.

In the first quarter alone, Baltimore did this three times. The Ravens had third down with seven yards to go and completed a pass for five. They had five yards to go and got three. Six yards to go and McNair threw for two. Like Kansas City the week before, Baltimore didn't convert a third down until late in the third quarter.

This postseason, the only thing more shocking than Peyton Manning's ineffectiveness has been the exceptional play of the Indianapolis defense. Who would have thought that Manning could average 219 yards per game, with one touchdown and five interceptions, and the Colts would go 2-0? Rather than riding the game's best quarterback, Indianapolis succeeded with defense and special teams while Manning struggled.

Two years ago, Dwight Freeney had the game of his life against Jonathan Ogden, and many analysts expected Freeney to play a major role on Saturday. Instead, he was invisible, with a statistical zero for the day: no tackles, no assists. The rest of the defense, however, was out in force. Bob Sanders, whose return seems to have rejuvenated the unit, led the team with eight tackles. Rob Morris, the inside linebacker playing outside for run support, had seven. Nick Harper had an interception and a crucial forced fumble.

The other major factor in the Colts' win was the fine play of their special teams. Look, no one believes Mike Vanderjagt would have missed three of the five field goals converted by Adam Vinatieri, but the Colts have to feel a lot more confident with Vinatieri — the premier clutch kicker of his generation, and maybe ever — than they did with the unreliable Vanderjagt. Vinatieri tied a postseason record by connecting on five field goals against Baltimore, and he broke the career record, previously held by Gary Anderson, for most postseason field goals. In a game decided by kickers — the first postseason contest without a touchdown in nearly 30 years — Vinatieri gave Indianapolis a confidence that might not have been there in the past.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

Early in the game, Philadelphia forced New Orleans to settle for two short field goals instead of touchdowns, and otherwise, this might have been a runaway. The Saints outgained the Eagles by nearly 100 yards and had almost twice as many first downs, with a 10-minute edge in time of possession. But there's a big difference between 14-0 and 6-0, especially against a team like the Eagles, who don't need much of an excuse to abandon the run.

In fact, if they had been more committed to the run, the Eagles might have won. Jeff Garcia had a decent game, with 240 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers. But Brian Westbrook had a great game, running for 116 yards and two TDs on just 13 carries. Even without his monster 62-yard gain, Westbrook averaged 4.5 yards per carry, and for Philadelphia to hand him the ball only 13 times may have cost his team the game. Consistently, good things happen for the Eagles when they give Westbrook the ball. On Saturday, they clearly didn't do that enough.

The Saints did a much better job of getting the ball to their playmakers. Deuce McAllister (25 touches) had 143 rushing yards and scored two touchdowns. Reggie Bush (18 touches) got involved early and contributed 95 net yards. Marques Colston led all receivers with five catches. Drew Brees threw for 243 yards with a postseason-best 96.2 passer rating.

Despite good play by Brees, the contrast between each team's commitment to the run was what you noticed in this game. While the Eagles were successful handing the ball to Westbrook, he didn't get many chances, with Philadelphia calling twice as many pass plays as runs. The Saints, however, ran as often as they threw, gaining over 200 yards on the ground. You won't see many teams lose when they run for 200 yards, especially in the playoffs.

Seattle @ Chicago

The Bears gave Seattle every opportunity to stay in this game. And — give Seattle credit — the Seahawks stuck around and almost won. Seattle was overmatched, but fought hard and took advantage of Chicago's mistakes, sending the game to overtime and putting a scare in the NFC's top seed.

What the Bears did well was to limit Matt Hasselbeck's efficiency, holding him under 200 yards and a passer rating of 70. They also stayed committed to the run, handing off 34 times, and got a decent game out of Rex Grossman. All those strengths also showed a degree of weakness, however. The same defense that shut down Hasselbeck couldn't stop Shaun Alexander. The Bears ran because they were afraid to put the ball in Grossman's hands, despite a Seattle secondary missing its top two cornerbacks. Grossman threw only one interception, but it came in the fourth quarter, on 3rd-and-goal, when the Bears should have been able to kick an easy field goal. He also fumbled to set up a Seattle touchdown.

Chicago also had uncharacteristic problems on special teams. Devin Hester averaged 1.7 yards per punt return, averaged 17.7 yards per kickoff return, and fumbled three times. The one time Hester broke a return, going 66 yards for a touchdown, the play was called back because of a penalty. Special teams helped set up Chicago's win, however, when Seattle punter Ryan Plackemeier shanked an 18-yard punt that led to Robbie Gould's game-winning 49-yard field goal in overtime.

The Bears advanced to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the Mike Ditka Era, but Chicago can't feel good about the way its team played on Sunday.

New England @ San Diego

There can be no doubt, after this weekend's games, that San Diego had the best team in the NFL this season. The Patriots looked out of their league for most of the game, and the Chargers should have won by two touchdowns. But while New England overcame its problems in the contest, San Diego gave the game away. Tom Brady threw three interceptions and averaged less than 5.5 yards per pass. The Pats had just 51 rushing yards. LaDainian Tomlinson gained 187 yards from scrimmage, scored two touchdowns, and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Those are the numbers you expected to see if San Diego won in a runaway.

Two of the most obvious Charger mistakes were made by head coach Marty Schottenheimer. Ten minutes into the first quarter, Schottenheimer elected to go for it on 4th-and-11 rather than punt or attempt a 48-yard field goal into the wind. I'd have tried the field goal. Nate Kaeding is one of the NFL's best kickers, and his chances of making the kick had to be better than Philip Rivers' chance of picking up 11 yards on fourth down. Even punting wouldn't have been totally loony. Mike Scifres had only two touchbacks all season. No punter is better at keeping the ball out of the end zone and pinning opponents deep in their own territory. Instead of kicking, the Chargers went for it. Rivers was sacked, and New England drove for a field goal.

Later in the game, Schottenheimer made another key mistake, challenging an obviously correct ruling on the field. He lost the challenge and cost San Diego a timeout. In a game when the Chargers basically ran out of time, that timeout might have been enough to get the team to overtime. I've always been in Schottenheimer's corner, and it's hard to justify canning a coach who just went 14-2, but I'm torn as to whether or not the Chargers should hold on to him. They'll also need to consider the future of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who may be offered a head coaching position in the near future. If the Chargers want Cameron to be Schottenheimer's successor, they may need Marty to leave sooner rather than later.

The Crystal Ball

New England @ Indianapolis

The Colts. I'm picking the Colts. It's probably the stupidest prediction I've made since the last time I picked the Colts to beat New England in the playoffs, but Indianapolis has the better team, and if it can avoid the mistakes that plagued San Diego, the Colts should advance to their first Super Bowl since the John Unitas days.

That "if" is huge, though. The Tony Dungy/Peyton Manning Colts have a clear history of not avoiding mistakes in big postseason games, especially when the opponent is New England. No team gets the opposition to beat itself as often as the Patriots, and that combination should leave any prognosticator uncomfortable. Even home field isn't a huge edge for Indianapolis. The Colts are 9-0 at home, but the Pats are 8-1 on the road.

When Indianapolis beat the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 9, Manning was on fire and Brady threw four interceptions. Manning has struggled this postseason, and many analysts believe the Colts will need a big day on the ground to get past New England. They'll need more than 56 yards and a 2.5 average this time around. Indianapolis can't count on Brady having two bad games in a row, either.

What the Colts do need to count on is continued strong play from the defense, and a resurgence from Manning. To beat New England, they need him at the top of his game. Manning needs to make big plays early and often, and the defense needs to rattle Brady. It's a tall order, but if the game is close in the late going, Indianapolis has Vinatieri.

My head says New England, and my gut says New England, but I believe that the world is more or less a good place, so I'm taking the Colts by a field goal.

New Orleans @ Chicago

The Bears, facing teams that scored an average of 19 points per game, have allowed more than 20 points in five straight games. On Sunday, they'll face the Saints, who averaged 26. They couldn't stop Shaun Alexander. They couldn't stop Steven Jackson. They couldn't stop Marc Bulger or Tim Rattay or Jon Kitna. So it's not real likely that the Bears will shut down Brees, McAllister, and Bush.

Let's give the Saints 31 points. Can the Bears beat that? I don't see it. Philadelphia generated offense with Westbrook and a few long completions. Chicago doesn't have anyone as dynamic as Westbrook on offense, and the thought of Grossman taking a lot of shots deep probably does nasty things to the digestive systems of Bear fans.

For Chicago to win, they're going to need more points than usual, but there are lots of ways to get them. They might be able to do it with an average offensive game if they can get a couple of scores from defense and special teams. They could get a really terrific game from Grossman. They might even be able to do it with big games from Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, carving up a New Orleans defense that can be run on.

With the defense vulnerable, though, I don't think Chicago has the firepower to stay with the Saints. New Orleans by 10.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 8:59 PM | Comments (1)

Impressive Kiawah Set For 2007

From the Blue Ridge Mountains of the north to the wildlife-rich low-country of the south, the palmetto state of South Carolina is both geographically and culturally diverse. Elegant architecture, sweeping dune-framed beaches, and streets draped with Spanish moss make the region an enduringly popular tourist destination. For the sports orientated, the state also boasts one of the world's greatest golf courses.

As a fan of links golf, the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island had long beckoned. The resort hosted the infamous 1991 Ryder Cup, dubbed the "war by the shore," and has received plaudits from just about every golf publication to take pen to course since. Home to this year's Senior PGA Championship and the 2012 US PGA Championship; I had all the justification necessary.

And so, having opened a line of communication with Mike Vegis, the resort's affable publicist, I secured tee times and we loaded our clubs into a very American SUV. A golfing odyssey began.

Traveling south from Wilmington, we crossed into South Carolina on US Highway 17. In remarkable contradiction to the abundant charms that lay ahead, the gateway to this magnificent state was decidedly underwhelming.

Our tour began with the tourist-ravaged resort of Myrtle Beach; an ode to over-zealous development if ever there was one. Punctuated by sky rise blocks, vacuous shopping malls, and the gauche designs of the brash and affluent, the city cowers in embarrassment under the all seeing bright winter sun.

Though offering more golf courses per square mile than anywhere in the world, the vast stretch offers little in the form of cultural enrichment. This may be America, but it could easily be anywhere. For the golfing tourist, the courses are occasionally spectacular, but largely soulless. The tribute show to Dolly Parton, however, is said to be rather good.

As our journey continued south, a dramatic transformation unfolded. Entering the marshland and intra-coastal waterways of the low-country, South Carolina's beautiful scenery and unaffected, rustic seaside towns gradually began to take over. In 100 miles, the landscape was completely transformed.

Gone were the motels and strip clubs. This was the real south. Here, alligators, possums, and bobcats roam the swamps, while local eateries prepare shrimp and grits, barbecued pork, and never-ending jugs of iced sweet tea. Authenticity had resumed. Following a further two hours of impressive vistas, we reached the historic city of Charleston.

Settled in 1670 by English colonists from Barbados, South Carolina was one of 13 colonies to revolt against British rule during the American revolution of the late 18th century. A staging point for the confederate forces during the Civil War, its historical significance increased when shots fired at Fort Sumter, Charleston, in 1861 marked the start of the bloodiest conflict in the nation's history.

Kiawah Island is situated 21 miles south of the city and has a population of just over 1,000. The town owes its name to the Kiawah tribe of Indians, who sold the land to the English in 1675 in exchange for "cloth, hatchets, beads, and other goods and manufacturers." On first impression, it seemed the English had done rather well from that deal.

The gated community of the Kiawah Resort is manicured to perfection from the welcome sign forward. Streets lined with stunning beach houses cut through pristine golf courses, spas, and country clubs with ever-increasing grandeur towards the island's outer reaches. After navigating two security checkpoints, the golfing gold at the end of this million-dollar rainbow came into the view. "Welcome to the Ocean Course."

Though the resort was opened in 1976, the Ocean Course was not even built when the PGA awarded it the honor of hosting the 1991 Ryder Cup. Its selection owed much to the reputation of golf course architect Pete Dye, revered among his peers for designing challenging and beautiful courses, and the contractor for the job.

In 1989, Dye arrived at Kiawah with less than two years to craft a worthy stage for sporting theatre. "I would have bent down on my knees and begged (perhaps even traded in Alice [his wife]) for the opportunity to build a course on such magnificent property," he wrote in his book, Bury Me in a Pot Bunker.

Given a narrow two-and-a-half mile stretch at the eastern tip of the island to work with, Dye walked the course over and over again with Alice and his project director Jason McCoy looking for inspiration. He planned to run the front nine clockwise to the east and the back nine anti-clockwise to the west, but faced a unique challenge.

"I was surprised to discover there was no prevailing wind because it blows alternately from the east and then the west," he said. "The holes would also run to the east or west, requiring a design that would one day play into the wind and the next with it."

To combat the dilemma, Dye built additional tee boxes to allow the Ocean Course to adapt to conditions. He also altered the depth of the greens to hold both lofted and low trajectory shots at the target. "Two golf courses in one were being built," he said, "since the direction of the wind could require a long approach shot one day and a short one the next."

Despite the unfortunate intervention of Hurricane Hugo in late 1989, Dye and his team duly completed their design and Kiawah welcomed Ryder Cup teams captained by Dave Stockton and Bernard Gallacher on Friday September 27th, 1991. Three days later Bernard Langer's six-foot miss at the 18th handed the trophy to the Americans before a crowd of 25,000 in arguably the most exciting finish in the tournament's history. Kiawah was on the golfing map.

After hitting pyramids of brand new practice balls parallel to the sparkling ocean, we made our way to first tee. "There's no out of bounds here," said the starter, "if you can find it, play it. The sand dunes and everything with sand in it count as wasteland, so you can ground your club everywhere. Have a good day, gentleman."

Weather wise, we were very fortunate. It was late December and the temperature was in the high 60s. More importantly, the wind was mild. We were playing a gnarly links, but its teeth would not be fully bared. Drivers out, we let fly down the inviting opening fairway and began our love affair with Dye's spellbinding creation.

With an ocean view from every hole on the course, the panorama is seldom less than spectacular. Inland, the course is bordered by marshland, patrolled by a wide variety of birdlife, including egrets, herons, and pelicans. There are few overlooking properties, allowing the course to fit seamlessly with its surroundings. Dye's design compliments the island's beauty and exists in harmony with nature.

Our first test came on the challenging second, a 501-yard par-5 (from the whites) bisected by two strips of wetland culminating in a wickedly hard green to hold. The putting surface was fast, narrow and unforgiving, lending itself to several 10-footers from our party that finished further from the pin that they started. The hole is a wonderful examination for the accomplished player.

At the par-3 fifth, roughly 100 yards of wasteland separate the tee box and a huge 10,000 square foot green. It's a seemingly straightforward hole, but depending on pin position the course guide suggests as much as a three to four club difference from the tee. With the wind in play, it likely becomes an entirely different animal.

Flush with the midday sun and exhausted from zigzagging the fairways from sand to sand, we paused at the soon-to-be demolished clubhouse for a hearty hot dog. A new $24 million, 24,000 square-foot facility lying adjacent to the ocean and 150 feet from the 18th green is expected to be ready in time for May's Senior PGA Championship.

At the 1991 Ryder Cup, it was the par-3 17th that frequently proved decisive. Playing 197 yards over water from the blue tees, the hole is perhaps more susceptible than any other to the fickle nature of the elements.

"If the wind's behind you, you can reach with a high-iron," said publicist Vegis, "but on other days, you'll need as much as a three-wood to carry the green. We pulled out 34,000 golf balls one year after the Ryder Cup when we dredged it. We get on average 28,000 rounds a year, so that's more than one ball per player."

Predictably, I added to that haul, ambitiously taking a six-iron in the face of a gentle breeze and landing with a loud splash two feet short. A quick peer over the bank did unearth a lively black and red striped snake, however, which put pay to any ideas of ball gathering amongst our party.

Almost home, we teed off on the 18th under clear blue skies. The hole begins with a drive over wasteland into a contoured fairway. To the right, a small misjudgment can land your ball in the ocean. Land safe, however, and a second shot of sublime beauty ensues. Surrounded by shoreline, with dunes in the distance, the cinematic backdrop to your approach encapsulates everything that is good about the Ocean Course.

With our round over, we retired to the doomed clubhouse to reflect on a highly enjoyable afternoon. Our only regret: that we'd used carts and not walked. From January 1st, a walking only policy will come into effect at the course for all tee times before noon and it's easy to see why. With a layout so beautiful, a return to the traditional is a wise move that will help retain the essence of the island.

This is a golf course of effortless, rugged charm, comparable to any links in the world in terms of both its challenging and thought-provoking design and its spectacular island location. A feast for the eyes and a test for the irons, the Ocean Course has only history between its status and that of Augusta and Pinehurst in America's golfing south.

Posted by Will Tidey at 6:32 PM | Comments (0)

Reflections on College Football '06

Another college football season has come to a close and, as one analyst once put it, "has there ever been a bad college football season?" Not to say that this was one of the more memorable ones, but the bowl season certainly contained some of the best games of the year and made me wonder if the two best teams really did play in the national championship game.

Ever since Ohio State took care of Texas in the early season, it was them and Michigan at the top the rest of the way — that is, until their annual rivalry game in late November. It was a close game, Ohio State winning by three, and many fans and experts hoped to see a rematch in the title game. It wasn't to be and, in hindsight, that was probably a good thing. After watching Florida dismantle the Buckeyes in the championship and USC doing likewise to Michigan in the Rose Bowl, it's clear the reason the Big Ten season finale was so good was because the two were so evenly matched — but not evenly enough to vie for the national championship.

The day after the last game, I wondered to myself, "What if the BCS had put Florida and Southern Cal in the title game? Would it have been a more entertaining game than 41-14?" I think it would have been, if for no other reason than the two took care of their prescribed bowl opponents in relatively easy fashion, and there's no reason to believe that matchup would have been heavily weighted toward one team or the other. I don't know if Florida would not have still come out on top, but I do believe the Trojans would have given them more of a challenge than the Buckeyes did. (Cries for a playoff.)

Speaking of close games, around these parts, people are still talking about the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State's miracle comeback. One of the reasons they're talking is because the game was so unbelievable. Another reason, though, is because of Jared Zabransky.

The Broncos quarterback is a local boy, and most folks are happy to see him accomplish all that he has in his three seasons in Boise. I say "most" because there are still a few people who remember "Z" as a hot-headed, arrogant teenager in high school who quit the football team mid-way through his sophomore year because he wasn't starting at quarterback. There are other reasons why some people don't like Zabransky, but he has given his detractors more than enough reason to soften their view of him.

One main reason was mentioned during the telecast of the Fiesta Bowl. As I previously said, Zabransky has always been known as a quick-tempered kid with an attitude, which tends to rub people the wrong way. Recognizing this, Zabransky employed the services of a sports psychologist to get a handle on his emotions. He says it's worked, and his teammates will vouch for it. The point, though, is that he realized on his own that he needed help in a particular area of his life and he sought that help independently. That's a major sign of maturity.

I was also told recently by an acquaintance that Zabransky is heavily involved in supporting a local speech camp that helps learning impaired kids with speech, language, and hearing therapy. For the past couple years, Zabransky has donated a helmet, jersey, and football to the camp, and shows up to personally autograph them for the lucky recipients. He doesn't do it for the publicity, but rather to be a part of something special that helps special kids. That's a major sign of humility.

Both the characteristics I just mentioned were very difficult to find in Zabransky when I first encountered him some eight years ago. What he lacked in those two areas, though, was easily overlooked by the immense athletic talent he had. As the radio announcer for the local high school sports teams, I was fortunate enough to broadcast every high school football game he played in, and a majority of his basketball and baseball games. Of the athletes I have watched in person on a regular basis, he is among the best, and his awards and collegiate success attest to that.

I'm happy for Jared, not only for the success he's attained as a college football player, but also for the strides he's made in his personal life. I wish the best for him in the future and hopefully will see him playing on Sundays next fall. Good luck, "Z."

Posted by Adam Russell at 6:08 PM | Comments (1)

January 15, 2007

Sayonara, Schottenheimer

Whooooooooooo!

That's the sound of relief coming from thousands of Patriots fans who know we are extremely lucky to have at least one more week to our season.

Let's just get it out of the way. The Patriots did not look like the better team yesterday in San Diego. The Chargers were bigger and faster, and they were fired up. The crowd was fired up. I kept waiting for that one play that would bring on the onslaught. It was coming. The dike was about to break.

After five minutes, I was despondent. My phone started ringing with gleeful taunts of impending doom. I threw my hat against the wall and told my wife to leave the room. The dog took cover under the coffee table in the corner.

To recap: Tom Brady went 27-for-51 with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. (That's a 57.6 quarterback rating just in case your head isn't equipped with a calculator that computes the most ridiculous stat in all of sports.) He often seemed confused, and The Brady Face made several unwelcome appearances.

The Patriots rushed for 51 yards on 21 carries, a 2.4 average with their longest rushes a pair of seven-yard jaunts by Kevin Faulk in their keep-the-game-close-and-take-the-momentum TD drive to end the first half.

Oh, and LaDainian Tomlinson was absolutely unstoppable in the first half. He was all-world. He was all-galaxy. He could never play another game in his life and still get my non-existant vote for the Hall of Fame. He was that good. (I'm giving him a pass on the bitching about the Pats' celebration after the game. He's pissed. That's okay. But, for the record, that's what you get for having Shawne Merriman on your team.)

The bottom line is that there is absolutely no way the Patriots should have left Southern California with anything better than a 45-14 pasting by the clearly superior San Diego Chargers.

But the dike never broke. Possessions kept on coming and going, and the Pats were still in it. I couldn't shake the feeling that it was all going to end very badly, and even started entertaining the "well, I'd rather lose to L.T. than Peyton Manning" line of pre-defeat.

But it never happened. And when the clock struck triple-zeroes, I couldn't believe it. I was dancing and smiling. I gave my wife a pat on the ass. Way to go, baby. One more week.

New England 24, San Diego 21.

A day later, I'm still trying to put in perspective.

The first inclination is to just point the finger at Marty Schottenheimer. He has a reputation as a notoriously bad playoff coach, and nothing screams choke more than a 14-2 team going one-and-done in the playoffs.

But I don't think that really fits the bill here. At least not entirely.

Was it Marty's fault his defense dropped a sure pick deep in NE territory that could have blown the game open from the start?

Was it Marty's fault that, after Tomlinson's second touchdown to put the Chargers up eight with under nine to go, Shane Olivea got called for a idiotic personal foul that forced the ensuing kick-off to be kicked from their own 15?

Was it Marty's fault a clinching interception on fourth down was then fumbled and recovered for a Patriots first down?

Was it Marty's fault kicker Nate Kaeding missed the game-tying 54-yarder?

Can you really blame Marty for any of this?

Well, to some degree, yes. Maybe not the fluke plays, but certainly the end result had Marty's ligature marks all over it.

First, Tomlinson was absolutely tearing the Pats up in the first half. He was so much faster than anybody else, he should have been fed the ball like Herman Edwards fed Larry Johnson. No possession should have gone more than two plays in a row without LT getting a touch. He should have had 30 carries and another 12 catches (just like Jimmy Johnson said in the Bears/Saints pre-game, by the way).

Instead, L.T. had only 23 rushes and an abominably low two catches. How does that happen? In six second-half possessions, Tomlinson had only 9 carries. What's worse is they only threw the ball to him once in the second half, and that was intercepted by Rosevelt Colvin. How do you not throw the ball to Tomlinson more than once in the second half of a one-score playoff game? It's completely inexcusable, and a fireable offense in its own right.

There were other coaching mistakes, as well. In the first half, the Chargers went for it on 4th-and-11 from the Pats' 30 instead of going for a 48-yard field goal. Philip Rivers got sacked, and the Pats finally got some decent field position. They had been set back on their own 10 and seven in their first two drives and couldn't do anything. The good field position turned into a 3-0 Pats lead and let them off the hook for a very shaky beginning.

On the pick-fumble play, it was a clear call. There was no reason to challenge and waste the timeout. That came back to haunt them big-time in the end. Horrible challenge.

And the two-minute drive featured poor decision-making in the short pass to Antonio Gates on 1st-and-10 from the SD 39 with 40 seconds left. They didn't spike the ball until there were 24 seconds left. That's 16 seconds for four yards. (You can say that was on Philip Rivers instead of the staff. I obviously don't know what the play-call was. At the same time, why was Gates only four yards from the line of scrimmage? Shouldn't he have been 25 yards down-field? Isn't he the best TE in the game?)

Add it all up, and Marty has once again earned his place in the pantheon of NFL head chokers. He may even be the dean of the club after that performance, with a six-game postseason losing streak and 5-13 overall record. (And quotes like this don't help, "At the end of this situation, we ran out of time, that's what happened. We ran out of time. Now, from a practical standpoint, we turned the ball over four times and you can't do that and expect to win." Really? Is that what happened?)

With all that said, there is another side to the Chargers' loss: the Pats just took it from them.

It doesn't matter how many times a team tries to give you the game if you don't have the balls to step up and take it. The Pats were belted in the mouth in the first half, and still came back with the late TD to bring it back to a four-point deficit. It certainly wasn't pretty, but it showed some serious gonadical fortitude.

As a Pats fan, I know how much people hate hearing about the "Brady mystique" or whatever. I can understand that. But there's got to be something there. When the Chargers were about to go up 21-13, I still felt okay about things because I knew Brady could make the play when the team needed it most. I just knew it. And if I knew it, you know the rest of the offense knew it. The defense knew it. The crowd knew it. Phil Simms knew it. Everybody knew it. AND IT STILL HAPPENED. How many athletes ever reach that peak of performance?

But it wasn't just Brady. The staff did a hell of a job adjusting to the Chargers' pressure, effectively making Merriman a non-factor in the second half. Think about that. The guy had 17 sacks in 12 games and he was basically a non-entity at the end. Brady drove for the winning score from the safety of the pocket, and that's thanks to a great job by the offensive coaches, o-line, backs, and tight ends.

And Jabar Gaffney, who joined the team over the Week 6 bye and caught a combined 11 passes over the final 11 games of the regular season, now has 18 in the postseason, with 10 for 103 and a TD against the Chargers.

And how about The Kid, Stephen Gostkowski? As we head into a week of hearing about Adam Vinatieri potentially putting Peyton Manning over the top against Belichick and Brady, I at least feel a little bit better about Gostkowski. He kicked a long field goal (from 50) and he kicked the game-winner. It's not quite Snow Bowl material, but it's a start.

So yes, Marty choked. In yet another chance to conquer his demons, he failed. And my guess is that GM A.J. Smith runs him out of town, never to return to the NFL sidelines.

But don't put it all on poor Marty, who seems to be a generally stand-up guy who cares about his players and going about things in a respectable and professional way. His staff (OC Cam Cameron called the plays) and players fell flat in the moment, losing their composure and squandering chance after chance to make the big play to put the Pats down. As they say, the coach can only do so much. It's the players who have to make the plays.

And that seems to be the lesson from New England 24, San Diego 21. And it's something I expect we can talk about again next Sunday night, as well.

Paging Mr. Manning...

Seth Doria is a writer and communications specialist in St. Louis, MO. He has not written a book. He does, however, write a daily blog at The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:50 PM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2007

An Early Valentine

When you're on vacation with your future wife, you're not necessarily supposed to be eyeing other women. But there was something about those ladies in the Lone Star State that I just found so ... captivating.

I'm not talking about those Texas honky tonk honeys that look like they just came from Coyote Ugly junior varsity practice; the ones with the Jessica Simpson country girl wardrobe, but with none of the intellectual charm. I didn't see many of them; since we were staying in Austin, most of the women either looked like they were from Haight-Ashbury or just walked out of a Dashboard Confessional concert.

I'm talking about a different kind of woman.

One who cheers loudly, and carries big ThunderStix.

And I found her in San Antonio.

We traveled there for a game between the Spurs and the visiting Dallas Mavericks, who had won something like their last dozen in a row. Naturally, we began our trip with a visit to The Alamo, which honestly I expected to be larger. Here's a fort where one of American history's greatest sieges occurred, and the main facility is about half the size of a bingo parlor. Not to mention I never even found the basement.

We also visited a Texas Rangers museum, which was cool in the sense that they had antique guns with antique bullets that were used to shoot antique cars, but not-so-cool in the sense that I expected to see a lot more stuff about Nolan Ryan and Bobby Witt.

After a quick stop for a bacon cheeseburger from a Texas burger stand — which I can't recommend enough, and would gladly eat twice a day for the rest of my life if it weren't for the fact that it would only last for about 72 hours — we were off to the AT&T Center, the amazing home of the three-time NBA champion Spurs.

Amazing arena ... horrific surrounding area. I'm not one to impugn a region based on a single street — Lord knows I've had to read the "New Jersey isn't just the Turnpike" riot act to enough people — but the neighborhood surrounding the road that leads to the arena looks like the more inviting areas of downtown Fallujah. Seriously, I've seen bars on widows before, but one of these houses had a CAGE ON ITS FRONT DOOR; like the kind Jacques Cousteau used to film in underwater. I didn't even know San Antonio had a problem with roving gangs of tiger sharks and moray eels...

Again, the arena itself is glorious, outside of the fact that its concourse hallways are medievally dark in some stretches. Great sight lines, good energy. I love the fact that the Spurs and the Rampage, the minor league hockey team in San Antonio, have this giant activities area above one of the end zone sections in the upper deck. Kids taking free throws and slap shots, playing video games — it's like going to a Chuck E. Cheese's without having to watch those creepy animatronic figures that usually never move ... well, save for when Matt Bonner comes off the bench for the Spurs.

But the best thing about the arena in San Antonio?

The women.

As I mentioned in a previous column, there's been a trend at NBA games where many of the female fans who show up are — how to put this? — dressed like they should be dancing in a Lil' Jon video. (You know which one I'm talking about. The one with the pimp cup.) Or they're dressed like a really great bucket of KFC: lots of leg, lots of thigh, lots of ... well, let's just say I've seen necklines at NBA games that were lower than the ratings for MTV's "Twentyfourseven."

But at a Spurs game, it's not like that. At all. Judging from the crowd I witnessed, the majority of the San Antonio fan base is comprised of women between the ages of 30-to-55 who proudly buck the female hoop fan wardrobe trend. They approach home games like a high-school football mother might approach her son's Friday Night Lights — with pride, and more than a little spirit.

They are passionate, they are relentless, and they are fiercely supportive of their Spurs. There was a woman sitting three rows in front of me in a Manu Ginobili jersey that, frankly, scared the living shit out of me and my lady. First of all, I'm pretty sure she brought her own ThunderStix, which is insane. And whenever Ginobili would score, she wouldn't just cheer; she vibrated, like a kid in a Japanese cartoon who is about to release a cosmic fireball at his enemy. She would put her arms in the air to her sides like she was flexing her biceps and begin to "Hulk up," allowing the Mystical Powers of the Manu to course through her veins. If Ginobili had hit a game-winning bucket or scored a four-point play, I'm pretty sure this woman would have exploded like a soggy pumpkin with an M-80 inside of it.

Why, in a world of 10,000 reality television shows about quirky people and their quirky lives, has this superfan's existence not been explored? Why hasn't someone sat down and chronicled what she believes channeling the Mystical Powers of the Manu provide her? Why hasn't someone entered her bedroom with a camera to record, for history's sake, the largest collection of Ginobili this side of Argentina?

The rest of the female contingent of Spurs Nation were no less enthusiastic. They were decked out in black-and-silver gear, and many of them added their own style to the ensemble. Like these little LED pins that would scroll a pro-Spurs message. Or several layers of Marti Gras beads. Or festive hats. They had style, they had class — and unlike some of the female Dallas fans in attendance, they didn't act like an ass.

The Mavs maidens in the upper deck were much younger and rowdier. Not at first — Dallas got down big early, before rallying in the second half to win. But during the comeback, these young Dallas darlings were saltier than a sailor. This one girl in a bright green Mavs t-shirt walked down the stairs to grab another beer from the concession stand during the fourth quarter, screaming at the rest of the section that "The Spurs SUUUUUUUUUCK! SUUUUUUUUCK!" Later, after Dallas had defeated San Antonio, she and a gaggle of other like-minded girls profanely taunted the departing home fans, as they danced and celebrated. It was completely disrespectful, callous, and inconsiderate behavior; the hockey fan in me was very impressed.

If their actions weren't pathetically attention-grabbing enough, one of the Mavs fans brought her own ESPN sign to the game; you know, the ones that feature some nonsensical four-word phrase, incorporating the letters of the network's name, in the hopes that a stray camera will catch it during a stoppage in play? Something silly like, "Everyone Salutes Popular Nowitzki!" It's the fan equivalent of flashing the crowd at a rock show...

Looking back on it, the entire night's behavior makes perfect sense within the context of the respective teams. What are the Spurs if not the personification of class? The team of David Robinson and Tim Duncan and model citizens coming together for a common good — well, save for that Dennis Rodman thing a few years back.

And what are the Mavericks if not ... well, "maverick," from Mark Cuban's unending insurgence to the fact that Dirk Nowitzki looks like he just staggered in from a Phish show (even if he prefers to listen to Hasselhoff)?

To you ladies of the Lone Star State: thank you for your passion, for your cheers — loud in both cases, though slightly slurred for the Dallas side. You made that night one of the most electric, dramatic, and entertaining arena experiences I've had as a basketball fan in quite some time.

And you gave me the second most memorable sports moment of our trip, eclipsed only by Tony Romo's botched field-goal hold one night later, which sent scores of Austin-based Cowboys fans out from the bars and into the streets, wailing in the night air with pained exclamations of frustration and anguish, sounding like mourners at an Italian funeral.

If only they would allow the Mystical Powers of the Manu to ease their pain.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 8:25 PM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2007

Old vs. New: The Great Ball Debate

When the announcement came that the NBA would be switching to a new microfiber basketball for this season, the players responded clearly and on the side of the status quo. Despite David Stern's repeated attempts at assuaging the situation, and despite his adamant defense of the new ball, the players' anger never subsided. In fact, it grew enough momentum to create a lawsuit against the league to try and get the old version of Spalding back.

What happened to David Stern the enforcer? He has handed out some of the stiffest suspensions in league history, created a dress code, and generally acted like a high and mighty ruler of his kingdom and not worried about anyone else's opinion.

And now, he decides to back down. Whether it was the lawsuit, the general discontent among players, or the fact that he really may have thought he was wrong in this case (although, probably not), David Stern gave in on the equipment issue and decided that the league would go back to the old leather basketball on January 1st, 2007.

Sure, he said that the NBA will continue to work with Spalding to develop a new basketball, but for the moment, the players got their way and the old leather ball back. Shouts of joy could surely be heard as the news came down. LeBron, Shaq, and other firm supporters of the old version basketball welcomed the news with cries of, "You're with me, leather!"

So, what now? The players got their way, but what difference is it going to make? The majority of their arguments settled around the lack of consistency of the microfiber ball. They said it would take unnatural bounces, glance at odd angles off the rim and backboard, would lose its grip when it got wet, and would lose its bounce after the first quarter.

There are few quantifiable ways to measure these things. Sure, the players are going to say everything is better with the old leather version back, but will the actual play of the game change at all? There are those who say that after almost half of a season, they should have stuck with the new ball until the end of this year, and then decided on its fate. Those would probably be the same people that would argue that it would be hard for the players to adjust to playing with the microfiber one week and the leather version the next.

Every team and player is in the same boat in this case. Boston didn't get the short end of the stick because they were the only team to play with the microfiber one night and the leather ball the immediate next night. According to the league, teams have been practicing with the old version since mid-December.

One way to look and see what kind of immediate difference there is with the leather version is to look at the field goal percentage for the games immediately before and after the change. This stat is perhaps one of the few ways to see if the change on January 1st actually had any effect on the performance of the teams. I realize that with injuries, win streaks, opponent strength of schedule, and any other number of factors that influence this stat in any given game, it is foolish to believe that it presents controlled area to measure the influence of the basketball. However, beyond player opinion we don't have much, so I'll take what I can get.

For the sake of brevity (on my and your parts), I will only take a look at the Southwest division in the Western Conference.

Dallas
Before: 42, 44.3, 41.2, 48.7, 51.2; Average: 45.48
After: 46.3, 44.3, 45.5, 42.2, 52.9; Average: 46.24

Houston
Before: 41.8, 50.7, 44.6, 36; Average: 43.275
After: 50, 41.5, 41.9, 39.1; Average: 43.125

Memphis
Before: 51.9, 48.1, 48.1, 46.5; Average: 48.65
After: 55.8, 56.3, 46.2, 49.4; Average; 51.925

NO/OK
Before: 40.6, 46.9, 40.3, 45.7; Average: 43.375
After: 47.4, 33, 45.8, 44; Average: 42.55

San Antonio
Before: 46.3, 50, 45.2, 62.9, 40.3; Average; 48.94
After: 38.4, 42.5, 44.1, 50, 48.5; Average: 44.7

Two teams shot marginally better, two teams shot marginally worse (especially if you throw out the highest and lowest averages and take a larger sample size like my statistics teacher from high school would have instructed) and one team shot almost the same.

Does this prove nothing? Well, the sample size is ridiculously small, and like I mentioned before, any number of other contributing factors influenced the shooting percentages on those specific nights, so it really isn't a great picture of whether or not the change back to the leather basketball affected anything or not.

However, it might lead us to conclude that besides the personal comfort of the players that may have whined about cutting their fingertips on the microfiber model there is really no practical difference between the balls in actual game play. We're talking about professionals here, professionals (best A.I. impersonation with the voice there), and they are going to make shots whether you put a microfiber ball in their hands or a leather ball in their hands. Heck, give them a little practice and they could probably make consistent shots with a soccer ball, a kickball, or whatever else you want to give them.

In this case, the groundswell against the change was so great that David Stern couldn't help but go back on his word and give the players back their leather ball. It might not lead to higher scoring games in the second half, and it might not lead to better field goal percentage, and all of the other stats might be the same; but if they players feel this vehemently about the basketball, then let them keep the one they want.

Even if the advantages and comfort of the good old leather Spalding are all in their heads.

Posted by Vince Grzegorek at 5:29 PM | Comments (0)

Playoffs?! A Look at the Final Eight

It was an anti-climactic ending to a season full of hype that never delivered. Ohio State started the year at No. 1. The Buckeyes breezed through a Big 10 that went 2-5 in bowls, and were finally exposed in the final game. Florida proved what everyone continues to disregard — the SEC is the best football conference in the nation.

The SEC has been in the national championship game three times, and has won every time.

The most intriguing part about this is if USC beat UCLA in the final game of the year, it would be the Trojans who would face Ohio State, not Florida, and the Gators would have been left to wonder what could have been. The BCS, of course, will say it got it right — because of the BCS, this matchup was available.

What wasn't available once again, however, was a true national champion. Boise State has a claim as the only undefeated team. USC can protest for demolishing Michigan, a team that barely lost to Ohio State. Big East champ Louisville is the only other one-loss team besides Florida and Ohio State. The Cardinals' Big East conference went 5-0 in bowl games.

As impressive as the Gators played Monday night, it pales in comparison to what could have been had there been an eight-team playoff with Ohio State, Florida, Michigan, Louisville,) Boise State, USC, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest. Who knows how that would have turned out, and that is what makes the men's NCAA basketball tournament so great — there's always room for a '06 George Mason or a '85 Villanova.

On the gridiron, the only way to hold the crystal ball is to play in a BCS conference, and that makes football obsolete in my eyes. So bring on March, because there, ladies and gents, is how you crown a true national champion.

While we're on the subject of college football, I miss the days when the Heisman Trophy was given to the most outstanding player in college football, not, the most outstanding player on the best team in college football.

Somewhere in the past decade, the voters decided the Heisman Trophy was more about the team than the individual. Take nothing away from Troy Smith, he led Ohio State to an undefeated campaign before a putrid performance in Arizona. But does keeping your team number one all year long and being the only unblemished team in a weak Big Ten deserve the prize of best player in college football? Let the stats tell the story.

If you were just looking at numbers, it would be easy to discount Troy Smith, compared to quarterbacks in pass happy systems, namely Colt Brennan out of Hawaii. Brennan leads in almost every statistical category, including passing efficiency. Leading this category would presumably mean you are the most efficient quarterback, regardless of how many times you threw. Brennan led his team to a respectable mark of 11-3, second in the WAC behind an undefeated and fifth-ranked Boise State team. All three of Hawaii's losses were within one score. At Alabama, at Boise State, and Oregon State at home — all three went to a bowl game. I could go on and on about Brennan, and his right to at least be invited to the Heisman Trophy presentation, but he doesn't play for a BCS school and he's not playing for a national championship.

But let's look at the numbers of someone who does and did play for the title. Where does Troy Smith rank amongst QBs? In the five statistical categories that mean the most to quarterbacks, before his Houdini act — passing efficiency, total offense, passing, passing yards, and passing yards per Game — Smith ranks 4, 32, 37, 33, 34, respectively. Now, I don't know about you, but that screams Heisman Trophy winner, doesn't it?

Regardless of where he stands, the Heisman trophy, no longer is associated with the top player in the country. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find a Heisman winner who was not playing for the national championship (Ron Dayne, Wisconsin). Beyond that, you have to go back to 1990 to find someone who did not attend a BCS school (Ty Detmer, BYU). How can we accept over half of the Division 1-A schools to play in bowl games, but only allow a miniscule percentage of players to be considered for the Heisman?

In fact, let's just change the name from the Heisman Trophy, to the HCS, Heisman Championship Series, and only include BCS schools, so that not only does the Big Ten, Pac-10, Big 12, SEC, Big East, ACC, and Notre Dame own the national championship picture, but also the Heisman. Just make it easy from the start.

I remember the days when the Heisman Trophy went to the best player in college football, disregarding Jim Brown's thievery in 1956. Now, it's all a sham.

Smith may go down in history, but he also will be grouped with Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, and Jason White as players who undeservedly took home the Heisman and then failed to back it up in the big game.

***

Moving on, there are several big games this weekend in the NFL. Yours truly went 3-1 last weekend with my only defeat coming at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. I refuse to mention the team they played, because if K.C. had showed up to play, there's no doubt they could have taken advantage of a dismal performance by Peyton Manning, surprise!

Give it up to the Colts' defense, though, they bottled up Larry Johnson and put the ball in the hands of Trent Green and Herm Edwards, and predictably, they failed miserably.

All other games went as planned, though probably not as I expected. The Jets gave the Patriots all they could handle, which was expected, until the fourth quarter when New England reeled off 17 straight points, which was unexpected.

In the NFC, Dallas got [Tony] Romo'd, which was unexpected. Andy Reid out-coached Tom Coughlin, which was expected.

This weekend, expect more of the unexpected.

Saturday, the Colts head to Baltimore and face the stingiest defense since the Monstars took on the Looney Tunes in Space Jam. I'll say it now and I'll say it again, PEYTON MANNING CANNOT WIN A BIG GAME. The worst part about it is it seems he has passed down the trait to younger brother, Eli.

If you have a good memory, you remember what happened when Pittsburgh came in to Indianapolis last year and blitzed and harassed Manning all day long, rendering him almost average. Baltimore is faster, stronger, and a better "D." Which means it's the end of the road for the Colts, even if they do bring the No. 3 offense in the league. 22-21, Ravens.

In New Orleans, the hot Philadelphia Eagles come to town. If you thought the Superdome was alive when Atlanta came to town for the first home game of the season on Monday night this year, wait until this one pops off. The Saints will be playing with so much emotion the Eagles would have to go up 28 nothing to nullify any sort of homefield advantage. That won't happen.

The Saints also tout all-pro Drew Brees and the best offense in the NFC, and combine that Eagles' Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard's injury and things look good for the home team. Add the homefield/Mardi Gras/Katrina relief/God-advantage and it's almost impossible to see New Orleans not coming out with the win. But then again, Philly has been doing the impossible since Week 12. New Orleans, 21-17.

On Sunday, the Bears say hello to Seattle and at the same time, say goodbye to the Seahawks. Remember what happened to the NFC West champions in the regular season when they came to Soldier Field? Yeah, they'd like to forget it, as well. It was an overall bend-over-and-take-your-whoopings-like-a-man kind of beating. Chicago's defense is too good, Soldier Field is too cold, and the Seahawks are just getting by on credit these days. Sorry to say, their credit limit is up. Bears move on to the NFC title game, 17-3.

In the highlight of the weekend, New England heads to San Diego. What's not to love? San Diego was the class of the NFL this year. The Chargers have reeled of 10 straight victories, boast the most potent offense in the league with the best player on the planet, LaDanian Tomlinson, a scary defense led by Shawne Merriman and for the most part of the year, looked untouchable. The only two negatives that have been discussed about this team are the AFC's top-seeded coach and signal caller.

The ironic thing is those are the two strengths of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are the New England Patriots. Together, they have an 11-1 record in the postseason, including three Super Bowl championships.

They say in the NFL, the league is a league of quarterbacks. If that's the case, New England should come out with the victory. In the last five games, it is the Patriots who have been the better defense and offense. San Diego has been coasting since Veteran's Day.

It would be crazy to think Belichick's game plan is not to put eight men in the box and dare Philip Rivers to beat them. Rivers has come down to Earth lately since starting the year off terrific, and if it came down to him with the ball to win the game, I think he does. The problem is you can't stop L.T., you can only hope to contain him. I just don't see how you can game plan for Tomlinson when he does so many things.

The key for San Diego is to get pressure on Tom Brady. When the Jets beat the Patriots in the regular season, they got to "The Golden Boy" four times, applying pressure all day, leading to a New York victory. Last week, the Jets did not get pressure, and Brady picked them apart.

I say San Diego at home with the league's MVP send the Patriots back to Massachusetts sans victory. San Diego, 24-21.

Then again, we can just pit Chicago against San Diego in the Orange Bowl, and rule the winner the NFL champion, but that's why they play the game. Are you listening, BCS?

Posted by Wailele Sallas at 5:25 PM | Comments (1)

January 11, 2007

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional Round

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

What's this? Peyton Manning throwing interceptions to Ty Law? That can mean only one thing: it must be January. Manning was 30-of-38 for 268 yards and one touchdown pass, but his three interceptions, two by Law, gave the stagnant Kansas City offense a glimmer of hope. That hope that was quashed again and again by an unlikely source — the Colts defense.

"Darn that Ty Law," says Manning. "He's my Waterloo. I guess that makes me Napoleon Bonaparte, or ABBA. Luckily, Law plays for the Chiefs and not the Patriots. But none of those interceptions were my fault. Have you noticed that whenever I throw a pick, I always make that hand motion indicating the receiver broke in the wrong direction? Marvin Harrison hates when I do that. He gets so mad, he actually talks. I know I'll have to play better against the Baltimorons and their No. 1-ranked defense, the Raven Lunatics. And, they're coming off a bye. That's like having drinks with Vladimir Putin, then going hunting with Dick Cheney. Not nearly as frightening as the thought of a playoff game at New England in the snow. Oops! I just soiled myself. Normally a tragic situation, but for me, an opportunity — to start the 'De-Pends! De-Pends!' chant and endorse yet another product."

Baltimore's defense will try to implement schemes that Manning can not recognize, including blitzes from all angles, zone blitzes, disguised coverages, and gentle reminders that it's the playoffs, he's on the road, and he's a Manning.

"We aim to confuse Manning," says Brian Billick. "If not with our coverages and schemes, then with a history of professional football in Baltimore. Now, the Colts used to play in Baltimore until they moved to Indianapolis. The Cleveland franchise moved to Baltimore in 1996. Then, the 'new' Cleveland Browns franchise returned to the NFL in 1999. That's three current teams in the league with ties to Baltimore. Ponder that, Manning. If that doesn't make your head spin, then maybe the possibility of this will: Brian Billick, two-time Super Bowl champion coach."

This is a classic matchup of a great offense versus a great defense. Don't be fooled. The NFL has entered a new era — offense wins championships, defense gets those felony charges reduced to misdemeanors. The Ravens, of course, will try to slow the pace of the game down with their running game and Jamal Lewis. At least, that's what everyone thinks. If Brian Billick is half the genius he thinks he is, he'll come out throwing. This will be a close game; there's always time for the running game.

The Colts can pay slowdown, too, with their short passing game. Manning won't force the deep throws; he'll take what the defense gives him. Of course, if he throws three interceptions, the defense will give him his fifth road playoff loss, and the ever-growing legacy of playoff shortcomings. Here's the secret, Peyton: you don't have to win this game yourself. Just keep it close, pray that those imposters masquerading as your defense show up again, and make a diving tag to Adam Vinatieri for the game-winning kick.

Colts win, 23-21.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

The Eagles put the Giants out of their misery on David Akers 38-yard field goal as time expired, giving Philly a 23-20 and a ticket to New Orleans for Saturday's divisional playoff. Mobbed by his teammates after the kick, Akers later thanked Jesus Christ, his family, his dietician, his masseuse, his nanny, the Easter Bunny, Dean Witter, and holder Koy Detmer, in that order.

"Hey, I feel bad for Tony Romo," says Akers, "but his misfortune has brought a new appreciation for the holder, and a great opportunity for Romo to endorse Texas Hold 'em Poker. I hear Romo's even holding on tee shots for Bill Parcells and Jerry Jones at Jones' championship-caliber, 18-hole golf course, 'Jerry Built No. 3.' As for Detmer, the Eagles organization has shown its appreciation for his flawless holds with a contract extension through next week, with an option for the following week, and a $200 dollar roster bonus."

While 10-6 would have only earned you a road trip to New England in the AFC, in the NFC it gets you a first-round bye in the playoffs. And, if your team was 3-13 in 2005, it gets your coach, Sean Payton, the Associated Press Coach of the Year award. And, if you're the quarterback of that team and you're named Drew Brees, it gets you voted to the first team on the AP All-Pro team.

"That's right," says Brees. "I edged Peyton for that spot by one vote, 25 to 24, and Eli Manning by 25 votes. And I ran a red light and did doughnuts on the Archie Manning Causeway in the Big Easy. Brees 3, Manning's 0. But enough about the Manning's; let's talk about the Garcia's, Jeff in particular. How many more times are we going to have to see that injured hand of his? Big deal! He lost some skin. I practically had my shoulder ripped out of socket last year, and I made the All-Pro team. Even Wiley E. Coyote can't recover that fast from such an injury. We all know who still calls the shots on that Eagles team — Momma McNabb."

The Saints were 3-1 against the NFC East this year, including a 27-24 win over the Eagles in Week 6, a game won by John Carney's field goal as time expired. This one may not go down to the wire, but it promises to be a close contest. The Saints will try to exploit cornerback Roderick Hood, who replaces the injured Lito Sheppard, with big receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson. If successful, this should open up space underneath for Reggie Bush and holes in the middle for Deuce McAllister. The Eagles will counter by moving Garcia in the pocket while looking for mismatches with Bryan Westbrook. And Philly is always good for a bomb or two; don't forget, the Saints corners are often vulnerable to double moves. Actually, I just made all that analysis up, but I bet if Mark Schlereth, the man with the most meticulously-groomed goatee in the history of facial hair, said it, you'd believe it.

Saints win, 30-24.

New England @ San Diego

New England pulled away from the Jets in the fourth quarter for a convincing 37-16 win over Eric Mangini and the Jets, earning the Patriots a shot at No. 1 seed San Diego on Sunday. Bill Belichick's game plan centered on protecting Tom Brady, and the Pats' quarterback suffered only one sack while picking apart the Jets secondary for 212 yards and two touchdowns.

"I know protection against the Chargers will be much tougher," says Brady. "I know Shawne Merriman's rush is ferocious, but nowhere near as fierce as Coach Belichick's burst through a bunch of cameramen to plant a hug on Mangini. And I thought those handshakes were awkward. I've seen disastrous blind dates end with more feeling. I'm actually comforted by the fact that Merriman will be trying to take my head off and not hug me."

Marty Schottenheimer and the Chargers will put their 14-2 record on the line in an attempt to advance to the AFC title game. He'll also put his 5-12 payoff record as a head coach on the line, a bet that is sure to be called and raised heavily by Belichick, who sports an 11-1 playoff record as coach of the Patriots.

"Kenny Rogers once said, 'Damn! I thought I mistreated cameramen. Bill Belichick should be charged with assault,'" says Schottenheimer. "That was Kenny Rogers the baseball player. Now, Kenny Rogers the country singer and fried chicken connoisseur once said, 'Gosh Dolly! Those are huge!' right after he saw her two bodyguards. Kenny also said, 'You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em.' In this case, I'll hold 'em. I've got an ace high, LaDainian Tomlinson, and the King of Clubs, Shawne Merriman. If we flop, I'll be the first coach to go 14-2 and get fired."

Belichick and the Patriots aren't going to make Philip Rivers beat them; they're going to dare him to. Here's what you do, Marty. Sit Rivers down, look him straight in the eye, and say, "I have no idea how to win a big playoff game. Kid, you're on your own."

"Honesty is always the best policy," agrees former Dolphins coach Nick Saban.

This is Tomlinson's game to win or lose. He's been unstoppable all year, but does the cold, calculating, and extremely underdressed Belichick have a plan? Ask any analyst, and they'll say the Chargers need to get Tomlinson the ball "in space." Really? That's brilliant. I was thinking they should get him the ball with seven to eleven defenders around. Actually, the best way to get L.T. the ball is to throw it to him, "in space." Heck, let him take a few direct snaps and throw the ball, and I bet he's one hell of a pooch punter.

After the Chargers easily drive 65 yards to the New England 15-yard line, resulting in a Nate Kaeding field goal, Schottenheimer feels confident to go conservative. Then, on cue, rapper Kurtis Blow's new single, "Martyball," begins to play over the public address system. Not surprisingly, Schottenheimer knows all the lyrics, including verse eight, which calls for "two straight fullback dives and a draw play on third and 25."

Patriots win, 24-23.

Seattle @ Chicago

While the Cowboys are kicking themselves (or at least trying to) that they're not in Chicago, the Seahawks are thrilled at the thought of heading to the Windy City for another shot at the Bears. In Week 4, Chicago whipped Seattle 37-6 behind 100% effort from quarterback Rex Grossman. Not much went right for the Seahawks, who were playing without injured running back Shaun Alexander, but they still found some positives in the loss.

"We did? Oh, we did," says Mike Holmgren. "You know, most teams, after a loss like that, would have folded and given up on the season. But no, we sucked it up, and, like true champions, went 6-6 the rest of the way to qualify for the playoffs. Then again, like true champions, we advance on nothing short of a miracle when Tony Romo bungles the snap on a field goal. We're living a charmed life. It would just be our luck if Grossman posts a passer rating in the 0 to 1.3 range and we advance to the NFC championship."

Bears coach Lovie Smith prepared for the divisional round game with the same kind of conviction Grossman displayed in preparing for the regular-season finale versus Green Bay. Smith spent last Saturday in the stands enjoying the Kansas City/Indianapolis game.

"Hey, Tank Johnson is a flight risk," says Smith, "but I'm not. Somebody's got to move those firearms across state lines. Seriously, though, I had to get out of Chicago and the media circus surrounding the Rex Grossman situation. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Rex Grossman is our quarterback. All those in favor, say 'nay.' All those opposed, say 'yay.' Good. It's very difficult tho switch quarterbacks so late in the season. As supergroup Chicago once said, Rex is a 'Hard Habit to Break.' Look, I know Griese can win a Super Bowl. But Bob Griese is cozied up with Brad Nessler is a booth somewhere discussing the pros and cons of the BCS system. If Rex's quarterback rating in the first half is less than his jersey number, then Brian Griese gets his shot."

If the Bears don't want to blow a home game to get to the NFC final, again, then they should throw the ball on the depleted Seattle secondary, something the Cowboys failed to do. Grossman is at his best (which still isn't very good) when he can toss the ball randomly 40 yards downfield and let Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian go get it. You know, get that rating out of the 60s, get a lead, and let the defense and special teams take over.

Chicago wins, 22-19.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:55 PM | Comments (0)

Five For the Future

Can you believe it? Just 232 days until college football season starts. It seems like just a few days ago Florida was beating Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

My favorite part of the college football season is the intrigue of the non-conference schedule. Luckily, since schools need to schedule as far in advance as they can, we can see up to 10 years in advance some of the more interesting games on the horizon. Who have the heavies scheduled? What are the most interesting games to come?

Note: I deliberately did not look at every big team, nor every year for the teams I did look at. I don't seek comprehensive knowledge on this subject because I want surprises each season, and each week.

MIAMI vs. OKLAHOMA, 2007 and 2009

The first of the series is in Norman. This must have looked like quite a clash of the titans when it was scheduled a few years ago, when Oklahoma had finally returned to power and Miami hadn't fallen from it. As it is, it will serve to see how hung over OU remains after their historic loss to Boise State (not to mention their loss of Adrian Peterson), and the first real test of progress for Randy Shannon.

PENN STATE vs. ALABAMA, 2010 and 2011

Not counting next year's return trip from Notre Dame, this is the only prominent team upcoming on PSU's schedules (although they do have some holes to fill yet before 2010).

This used to be quite a rivalry, with Alabama winning a national championship in 1979 by defeating Penn State 14-7 in the Sugar Bowl. That paved the way for the teams meeting 10 straight years, from 1981-1990. Six of those games were decided by 10 points or less. Good to see this classic North vs. South rivalry resumed.

LOUISIANA TECH at LSU, 2007 and 2008

Okay, these games aren't big. They are 40-point blowouts waiting to be shown on ESPN GamePlan. The only reason I include it is because if you type "Future Schedules" into Google, the main resource page for future schedules, NationalChamps.net, is the second result. The first result is Louisiana Tech's future schedule specifically. I can't figure why that is.

They have some tough non-conference schedules coming up — all BCS opponents — but none that explain why their schedule page is such a popular Google hit. My best guess is, LTU fans are so excited to be taking on their state's heavyweight that they just gaze at the schedule page, refreshing constantly to make sure those LSU dates don't go away.

FLORIDA STATE vs. ALABAMA at Jacksonville, Florida, 2007

I demand we call this game, "The Cocktail Party II." Demand it.

Florida State also has home-and-homes coming up with Oklahoma and West Virginia, even though they already have one tough annual non-conference opponent in Florida. Kudos to the Seminole athletic department.

WASHINGTON AT NOTRE DAME, 2009

Tyrone Willingham got a shot at his former employers last year when the Huskies were still in shambles. But U-Dub have made major strides in this last year and I'm hopeful Tyrone can beat the Irish in South Bend the next time around. Then I hope that when it comes to the post-game handshake, Willingham pulls Charlie Weis's hand behind his back, knocks him to the ground, and starts dry-humping Weis's Shamu-like body; a graphic rebuke to the double standards that did Willingham in and declare Weis one of the greatest coaches in the game. It'll be something incredible.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 10:03 PM | Comments (0)

January 10, 2007

2006: Not a Year to Play Favorites (Pt. 2)

Continued from part one.

With half of 2006 gone, it wasn't just the major American sports that followed this trend of dominance denied, though — it was the major international events, as well. 2006 was a year that hosted the World Baseball Classic and the World Championships of Basketball, both events in which the Americans were expected to excel with their all-star lineups out of the world's most renowned leagues. It didn't happen.

The American team at the World Baseball classic looked as surprisingly anemic on offense as the Yankees in the postseason the year before, and were eliminated in the second round of pool play. While the South Koreans swept through both pool play rounds and were the only team to go 6-0 to start the Classic. Cuba and the Dominican Republic both made predictably strong showings, as well.

But it was the Japanese team, a team that had floundered, but just gotten by in both pool rounds with a 3-3 overall record, that stunned the Koreans in the semis and then the Cubans in the championship game. It was this sequence that led to the recognition of Daisuke Matsuzaka as tournament MVP and most coveted pitcher in America in the subsequent 2006 offseason.

In the basketball world championships, the USA had taken deft measures to make sure their previous embarrassments would not be repeated as a team was carefully assembled with role-players and puzzle pieces in mind rather than the usual all-star lineup (out of everyone willing to play internationally anyway). The thinking was that America had been losing these tournaments due to nothing more than laziness and carelessness and the talent was still head and shoulders above the world.

This seemed to be true as the United States dominated their group, going 5-0 with a combined margin of victory of 115 points. In the round of 16, they beat Australia by 40 and Germany by 20, but on September 1st, the surprising Greeks caught fire from beyond the three-point arc and played smartly inside the paint, exposing a surprisingly porous interior defense that led to numerous lay-ups. The Americans tried to play catch-up and could not. The Greeks had completely blind-sided the U.S. in the semifinal game by the final score of 101-95.

Many of you may not have bothered to watch much international basketball after that, so it may come as some surprise to know that the winner of this tournament was none other than Spain, even after losing forward Pau Gasol to injury in the semifinals. They defeated Greece 70-47 in the championship and had dominated every game they played but one, a 75-74 semifinal win over Argentina. The best basketball country in the world in 2006 was Spain. Who knew?

Then there was the World Cup, one international event the United States was not expected to dominate or win, and it didn't even live up to expectations of being respectable. The perennial powers of Brazil appeared to be the favorites behind the legendary Ronaldo and rising star Ronaldinho. Host Germany also figured to be a favorite with their considerable home turf advantage. Yet in the round of eight, Brazil fell stunningly to a well-prepared and inspired French team in a 1-0 victory for France in which they clearly outplayed and even out-maneuvered the supremely-talented Brazilians. Italy emerged from the other bracket, despite the major turmoil of a match-fixing scandal and the subsequent attempted suicide attempt of sporting director Gianluca Pessotto in the background.

In the Italy/France final, all eyes were squarely on French star Zinedine Zidane for his last match. Unfortunately, Zidane's eyes (and forehead) ended up even more squarely on Italian defender Marco Materazzi's chest in a tie game in extra time, providing quite an abrupt and distasteful goodbye to the beautiful game for legend Zidane. This, along with poor substituting out of Thierry Henry and Francik Riberie, led to Italy outgunning the depleted French in the penalty kick shootout with Fabio Grosso booting home the clinching goal.

In the midst of despair, scandal, and attempted suicide, Italy became yet another unlikely champion in 2006, while Brazil, another juggernaut, fell by the wayside. Yet while still a traditional power, Italy certainly did not have the coveted sentimental favorite or underdog status, either.

But producing perhaps the most unlikely and downright mediocre champion of 2006 was Major League Baseball. The St. Louis Cardinals were hardly your usual feel-good story. In fact, many felt, as they collapsed game after game under the pressure of trying to clinch their division and eliminate the Houston Astros, that the Cardinals had no place in postseason and would die out early due to their late-season slump and turmoil. As the regular season ended, the Cardinals only clinched after the Astros lost their final regular season game in Atlanta. St. Louis had lost that day, as well, but backed into the postseason in grand, U-Haul fashion.

It was the two New York teams that were the strongest favorites in baseball's postseason, with the Yankees and Mets matching each other's league-high win total at 97. However, the Yankees were once again ambushed in the division series by an unlikely team without much offense. The Detroit Tigers' pitching arms and bats came alive once the series came to the Motor city, and the Bombers never stood a chance, losing in four games.

While the Cardinals toiled to a four-game victory in an ugly-stepsister type series against San Diego, they would draw the Mets in the NLCS, who were fresh off a sweep of the Dodgers. The Cardinals proved to be up to the task in a surprisingly evenly-matched series that came down to the final inning of a dramatic Game 7 at Shea Stadium. After Endy Chavez had brought down the house with his brilliant home run-stealing catch in left field, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina silenced it with his go-ahead ninth-inning home run to nearly the very same spot in left. The Mets threatened to come back, but Adam Wainwright struck out Carlos Beltran looking with two men on base to end the series.

The World Series between St. Louis and Detroit, the two teams that had played the most poorly in September, indeed became a showcase of mediocrity. In essence, it may have been the year's crowning glory of this strange phenomenon. It was a series marred by Detroit's throwing errors from the pitching position, as they had at least one in each game. It was a series where the Tigers lost their edge after winning seven straight postseason games, and yet the Cardinals didn't look that much better.

Cardinals star Albert Pujols, as many might have hoped for and expected, did not have a "pantheon moment" where he determined the outcome of any of the games in the late innings. While the Cardinals prevailed in five games, the 2006 World Series played out as an event that neither of its two participants seemed to want to win. When the diamond dust cleared, the 83-78 Cardinals emerged as the worst team ever to win the World Series.

As the year moved on into the final months, the NFL came into focus with the professional ranks having one of its most tumultuous and unpredictable seasons yet. Parity and mediocrity seemed to rule every weekend with seemingly no team immune, especially in the NFC, where an 8-8 Giants team rounded out the playoff picture and the chronically-flawed Bears, the team with the terrible quarterback and the vaunted-but-depleted defense, is the top seed. Peyton Manning's Colts struggled after starting 9-0 and the San Diego Chargers, a team with zero Super Bowl rings in its history and little recent playoff experience, has the top seed in the NFL's top conference. It is the Chargers who are the closest the league has to any kind of heavy favorite to win the Lombardi trophy.

To speculate on how or why or what caused this trend in so many different sports over a calendar year would be lost, misguided, and quite a reach. All I will say is that with 2006 at a close, we can now say it was not a good year for Goliath.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:26 PM | Comments (0)

There is But One Word...

Only one word should have been applied to the gentleman who lives somewhere between distinguished and extinguished, depending upon your point of view. The word is proof.

Legitimate proof, ladies and gentlemen. Evidence, not estimation. Or, innuendo. Or, speculation. (Including and not limited to whatever is merely thought to have been inside his head the day he looked, depending upon your point of view, like a deer in the headlights or the smuggest sonofabitch in town before — thank you, again, Mr. Will — the House Committee on Sending Swell Messages to Kids.) Real steroids, not mere andro. Incontrovertible connection, not mere conjecture, contortions, or convolutions that the jacks didn’t jump without the juice.

Then — and only then — should anyone have thought about denying Mark McGwire the Hall of Fame.

There. I've said it. And that is my final word upon the matter qua McGwire, the better to acknowledge...

a) That Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. should have been no-brainer Hall of Famers without a single saying of nay. Anyone who said nay for any reason other than that of Mr. Bill Shannon ought to be drummed out of any serious baseball discourse, never mind out of any roll of Hall of Fame voters. (Anyone who says Ripken wouldn't have had his ticket punched at all without The Streak should be sentenced to season tickets ... for the Washington Generals.) Shannon has said he didn't vote for Gwynn or Ripken because they "were such obvious candidates they didn't need my vote. I wasn't thinking in terms of a 100 percent." Reasonable enough, allowing that his followup was how he had ten other candidates for whom he also wished to vote.

b) That (ha! you thought you'd escape without my mentioning this even once) the Hall vote ought not to be limited to the Baseball Writers Association of America. They ought to be part of the vote but not the alpha and the omega.

Roger Angell (he is not baseball's Homer; Homer was ancient Greece's Roger Angell) has no official say as to whom does or does not become a Hall of Famer. The very longtime (and hopefully to remain longer time) New Yorker essayist — whose prose poetry has compiled into six imperative volumes that only begin with The Summer Game and Five Seasons — does not get to vote for the Hall of Fame.

Allen Barra (he who has refined sabermetric analysis into simpler, more comprehensive terms, in two splendid books and numerous columns for The Wall Street Journal and other publications) does not get to vote for the Hall of Fame.

Charles Einstein, compiler of the invaluable Fireside Books of Baseball, biographer of Willie Mays, and still alive and well so far as anyone knows, does not get to vote. Bill James, who has revolutionised irrevocably the manner in which baseball players are conjugated statistically, whose work has surely influenced a few Hall of Fame votes (and whose chapter on the issue, in The Politics of Glory, republished as Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?, influenced my thought on this issue in the first place), does not get to vote for the Hall of Fame. And neither does (he who needs little enough introduction) George F. Will.

Hall of Fame votes as the BBWAA has them do not belong to Marty Brennaman, Jim Brosnan, Joe Buck, Skip and Chip Caray, Will Carroll, Jerry Coleman, Bob Costas, Robert W. Creamer, Nicholas Dawidoff, John Dewan, Ron Fairly, Joe Garagiola, Peter Golenbock, Curt Gowdy, Ernie Harwell, Mark Harris, Keith Hernandez, Rex Hudler, Pat Jordan, Tony Kubek, Tim McCarver, Jon Miller, Rick Monday, Ross Porter, Ron Santo (who belongs in Cooperstown as a player, anyway), Tom Seaver (who is in Cooperstown as a player, anyway), Herb Score, Vin Scully, Steve Stone, John Thorn, Bob Uecker, Suzyn Waldman, Bob Wolff, and several dozen other baseball broadcasters and historians, incumbent and emeritus, who have seen at least as many (and often more) players play the game as the BBWAA has seen.

(For that matter, while they lived, Mel Allen, Red Barber, Jack Buck, Harry Caray, Ken Coleman, Bob Elson, Dizzy Dean, Russ Hodges, Frank Messer, Bob Murphy, Lindsey Nelson, George Plimpton, Bob Prince, Byrum Saam, and Chuck Thompson, to name a few, did not have Hall of Fame votes. And neither did one of baseball's most valuable historians, Harold Seymour.)

If you can explain to me a world in which Bob Costas can't vote for the Hall of Fame, but writers willing to convict and deny Mark McGwire without legitimate, tangible, and incontrovertible proof, evidence and not innuendo, connection and not conjecture, can vote for the Hall of Fame, you're a better man than I am, Gunga Dean.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:40 PM | Comments (1)

January 9, 2007

NFL Wildcard Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations, NBC: your viewers missed the first score of the postseason because you were showing a beer advertisement. Very professional.

* I know Florida stomped the Buckeyes, but how did Boise State only get one first-place vote in the final AP poll?

* Bobby Petrino will be the next head coach of the Falcons. I don't follow college football closely enough to say anything more than that I'm not impressed by the recent record of college coaches moving to the NFL. Petrino will have a lot of talent to work with, but he needs to seriously change the attitude in that locker room.

* Hated Jim Mora, Jr. as a head coach. Liked him in the studio on Saturday.

* Happy trails, Bill Cowher. Let's hope Pittsburgh hires one of Cowher's excellent assistants as his replacement.

***

Wildcard Roundups

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

The Colts are probably a better team, but can you get over how poorly the Chiefs offensive coaching was on Saturday? They ran when they should have passed, and threw when they should have run. Coming into the contest, everyone knew that Kansas City wanted to run. The Colts had a historically bad run defense, and KC had Larry Johnson. It was the big story all week, and both teams knew that.

Everyone wanted to see play-action on the first snap. Instead, Johnson ran into the middle of Indy's defense for no gain. It gave the Colts much-needed early confidence, and they never looked back. The Chiefs, meanwhile, abandoned their gameplan. In the first half, when the game was close, the Chiefs threw as often as they passed. They ended up running 28 pass plays and just 17 rushes, only 13 of them with Johnson. This was a two-score game until the third quarter was almost over, and Kansas City's offensive play-calling was inexcusable. A lot of observers will question Herm Edwards' decision to stick with Trent Green at quarterback, as well.

This isn't meant to take anything away from the Colts, who turned in their most inspired defensive performance of the season. They held L.J. to 32 yards on his 13 carries, and average of less than 2.5 yards per attempt. They sacked Trent Green four times and intercepted him twice. Dwight Freeney, lining up against an overmatched Jordan Black, had probably his finest game of the season.

Kansas City became the first playoff team in the Super Bowl Era to go an entire first half without making a first down. Halfway through the third quarter, when Indianapolis picked up its 20th first down, the Chiefs still didn't have one. When Ty Law's first interception gave KC the ball at the Indianapolis nine-yard-line, Johnson had a nice run up the middle, followed by a stuff, and left guard Brian Waters stepping on Green's foot, which led to a three-yard loss. To finish things up, Lawrence Tynes missed a 23-yard field goal. What an incredible way to squander momentum, and an easy opportunity to put points on the board.

Cris Collinsworth, calling the game for NBC, summed things up just halfway through the first quarter: "The Chiefs look really nervous right now." Kansas City never really looked ready, and I question their preparation for the game.

Dallas @ Seattle

Let's can the hyperbole on Tony Romo's dropped snap at the end of the game. This is not Jackie Smith dropping a potentially game-winning catch in the Super Bowl. This is not Earnest Byner fumbling at the goal line in the AFC Championship Game. This isn't even Nick Harper cutting inside instead of outside before he was tackled by Ben Roethlisberger in last year's playoffs. This was a wildcard game, and the Cowboys didn't have a realistic chance of making a Super Bowl run this year, even if they got past Seattle. The dropped snap was bigger, but even after the botched field goal, I was still thinking about the tough spot given to Jason Witten on the previous play.

Dallas probably didn't deserve to win. Facing an injury-decimated Seattle secondary, Romo threw fewer than 30 passes, and no Dallas receiver caught more than four passes. Witten, the tight end, led the team with 57 receiving yards, most of them coming on a 32-yard reception right before halftime. Can we all agree, by the way, that it is no longer tenable to cover NFL tight ends with linebackers? Dallas tried it off and on, and Jerramy Stevens responded with a career game, including both of Seattle's touchdowns.

The bottom line in this game was that the Seahawks played with heart, and Bill Parcells' Cowboys looked more like Marty Schottenheimer's Chiefs, sleepwalking their way through the biggest game of the season.

New York Jets @ New England

The most striking statistic from this game was the score by quarter. In a contest that was close until the end, the Patriots still outscored the Jets in every quarter. That's what this game came down to: the Patriots were just a little bit better, across the board.

Chad Pennington was one of the NFL's most accurate passers this season, with a 64.5% completion percentage that ranked fourth in the league. Against New England, he completed 57.5% of his passes, which isn't bad, but the Jets needed more from him if they were going to win this game. I'm not trying to slam Pennington, the Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year, because he really didn't have a bad game. But going on the road to New England, to face Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots in the playoffs, the Jets had to bring their "A" game. I'd give Pennington more like a "B." He threw for 300 yards and a touchdown, but he also committed two turnovers, both of which led to scores by New England. Asante Samuel returned Pennington's interception for a touchdown, and Vince Wilfork's 31-yard run after a fumble recovery put the Pats in position for an easy field goal.

On offense, the Patriots played the way they like to, with a safe, slow-and-steady approach. They only had one offensive play over 15 yards in the whole game, but they moved the chains and didn't make mistakes. Runs by Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, as well as short passes by Brady, consistently put the Patriots in third-and-short, and they converted 11 of their 16 third downs. Unlike the Saturday games, this one unfolded pretty much according to plan, and the Jets just didn't have the firepower to come out on top.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia

Tiki Barber's final game, fittingly, was a story of running backs. On New York's side, Barber had 137 rushing yards and averaged over five yards per attempt. For Philadelphia, Brian Westbrook ran for 141 yards and a touchdown, with an average of more than seven yards per carry. In fact, the Eagles had more first downs rushing than passing for the first time in over a year.

The Eagles were reasonably steady on offense, moving the ball with runs by Westbrook and safe, mostly short passes by Jeff Garcia. The Giants, as usual, were erratic. Eli Manning looked good on one drive, horrible on the next. His interception to Sheldon Brown was classic Eli. The pass was right to Brown, begging to be intercepted. No one doubts Little Manning's physical abilities, but his decision-making is horrible. And can someone please slap Curt Menefee for saying, "No one epitomizes 'underdog' like Eli Manning." What planet does Menefee live on? The kid was a number one draft choice, and he's gotten by on his last name since high school, if not earlier. He's the opposite of an underdog.

It would be interesting to see what Plaxico Burress could do with a more consistent quarterback or a different offensive system. On Sunday, Burress led the Giants in all major receiving categories, with five catches for 89 yards and both New York touchdowns. He also laid a pretty nice block on Barber's 41-yard run. In addition to his abilities as a pass-catcher, Burress is one of the best blocking wide receivers in the league.

Postgame speculation focused less on a playoff won at — literally — the last second, and more on Barber's impending retirement and the job security of Giants coach Tom Coughlin. Barber has been the second-best running back of the decade so far, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson. Barber was an elite back, at or near the top of the league, for each of the last three seasons, and he was very good for four years before that. Is it enough for the Hall of Fame? My feeling right now — and this could change, because it's probably too early for definite word on this matter — is no. He's a borderline candidate, and you leave borderline candidates out. Barber will certainly be nominated, but at this point, I would be surprised if he's elected. It's a shame that he's retiring, not only because the game will lose one of its brightest stars, but because one or two more seasons like he's been having would almost certainly get Tiki into Canton.

Coughlin's on-field results with the Giants are not the sort that normally get coaches fired. He has a winning record, and he's made the playoffs in consecutive seasons. If Coughlin does get the axe, it will be for the same reason — or at least similar reason — that Jim Mora, Jr., got fired in Atlanta. Coughlin, like Mora, has failed in the interpersonal area of coaching. Many of his players seem to resent him, and he may have lost his team to a degree. There's also a feeling that this team has enough talent to expect better results, and it is true that Coughlin and his staff have been noticeably out-coached in several key games over the last two seasons. Although Coughlin's job security will ultimately depend upon whom the Giants select as their new GM, the bet here is that he gets one more season.

The Crystal Ball

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

This week's games are giving me fits. I went 4-0 in my predictions last week, but I wouldn't be surprised if I'm 0-4 this time around. I should probably just flip a coin.

The obvious choice in this one is Baltimore. The Ravens finished the regular season as the best team in the NFL, and just a week ago I picked them to win the Super Bowl. They run a 3-4 defense, which has always caused problems for Peyton Manning. The game is in Baltimore, where the Ravens went 7-1 this year, and the Colts finished 4-4 on the road.

I'm nervous about the Colts, though. If their defense plays the way it did against Kansas City, they have a good chance against anyone, and there's always that chance that Manning just explodes and tears apart a defense. He's done it against other good defenses, including each of the last two seasons against New England. Furthermore, for a team that's supposed to choke, Indianapolis has played pretty well in its big games this year. The Colts' losses this season came against teams with a combined record of 31-33. They beat four playoff teams, three of them on the road, and that doesn't include significant victories against the Broncos and Bengals, when both looked like serious contenders.

If the Colts somehow escape without any turnovers, and they hold Baltimore to under 150 yards rushing, they'll win. It would help if they get off to an early lead or get some big plays on special teams. They won't be able to lean on Joseph Addai the way they did against Kansas City, but they can't give up on the run entirely, even though that's tempting against Baltimore's rush defense.

The Ravens need to limit their mistakes and keep Freeney away from Steve McNair. If they have drive-killing penalties, a lot of sacks, or a couple of turnovers, they'll give the Colts too many opportunities. On defense, the plan is simple: pressure Manning. Baltimore has the league's best pass rush, and it needs to keep Manning uncomfortable in the pocket.

I wouldn't be surprised if one team establishes dominance by the end of the second or third quarter, and wins by a lot, but I'm not confident in the pick, so let's say the Ravens by a touchdown.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

A week ago, I agonized over who to pick in this game. Today, I'm taking the Saints. Philadelphia has a short week to get rested, and Pro Bowl cornerback Lito Sheppard will miss Saturday's game. That's a major loss against any opponent, but especially one featuring this year's all-pro quarterback, Drew Brees. Also, let's not forget that Andy Reid's Eagles do not have a history of winning playoff games against other good teams.

The New Orleans defense should get a boost from the return of starting DT Hollis Thomas, who missed the last four games after being suspended by the league. The Saints need to contain Westbrook and discourage the Eagles from running. When they beat Philadelphia earlier this season, the Saints sacked Donovan McNabb three times, and they'll probably try to pressure Garcia, too, trusting their defensive backs against the Eagles' wide receivers. On offense, they'll use multiple-receiver sets and attack Sheppard's replacements, Roderick Hood and Joselio Hanson. I wouldn't be surprised to see some misdirection or trick plays, too, probably involving Reggie Bush.

For the Eagles to win, they'll need a big game from the defense, particularly on the line. Pressure on Brees will be key in protecting the weakened secondary, and Brian Dawkins probably needs to have a big game. They'll need a solid game from Garcia. One interception and a couple of sacks won't kill them, but much more than that probably will. Most importantly for the offense, Westbrook needs to get a lot of touches, and he has to break at least one big play.

There's too much going against the Eagles right now, so I'll take New Orleans by 10.

Seattle @ Chicago

I wouldn't think about picking the Seahawks against New Orleans, but they scare me against Chicago. Seattle gave the impression last Saturday that they're not content just to be in the playoffs, that they're hungry for more. I don't get that from the Bears. They remind me of last year's Colts, or better yet, last year's Bears. I just don't know if they're playoff-ready.

Chicago's defense fell apart at the end of the season, allowing each of its last four opponents — none of whom made the playoffs — to score over 20 points. Those teams succeeded mostly by throwing the ball, so expect Matt Hasselbeck to air it out. I usually criticize Mike Holmgren for getting away from Shaun Alexander too early, but in this game, the Seahawks need to throw, probably between 40-50 times.

The Bears' offense does not match up well against Seattle's injury-depleted defense. Logic would dictate that the Bears, too, should put the ball in the air, testing the Seahawks' corners, but that's exactly what opponents want from Chicago: the ball in the hands of Rex Grossman, whose inconsistency and turnover tendencies can keep any opponent — even the Cardinals — alive against Chicago.

Despite all this, I'm picking the Bears. Seattle's just not that good, and I don't have a lot of faith in Holmgren. The Bears squeak by with a six-point victory.

New England @ San Diego

Another tough game to predict. On paper, this is a runaway for the Chargers. But that means picking Marty Schottenheimer, a notorious postseason choker, against Bill Belichick, the modern Vince Lombardi. New England's defense is better than most people realize, ranking sixth in yards allowed, second in points allowed, fifth in sacks, and fourth in takeaways. They probably won't be able to shut down Tomlinson, but they could cause major problems for first-year starter Philip Rivers.

If I was Belichick, I would start the game expecting to see a lot of Tomlinson. Schottenheimer and his offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, will be understandably worried about protecting Rivers, so they'll probably try to run the ball as often as possible, which is Marty's inclination in the postseason anyway. With some luck, the Patriots can make San Diego's offense one-dimensional all day: running early, then falling way behind and going to the air.

What the Chargers should try to do is to get the ball to Tomlinson in space, with short passes. They can't allow New England to take him out of the game. San Diego also needs to utilize Antonio Gates. I'm not sure how the Patriots are going to cover him, but he's a weapon, and the Chargers need to shift the defense's focus away from LT however possible.

I think San Diego's defense will be fine. This unit is also better than most people realize, especially with Shawne Merriman back in the lineup. San Diego led the NFL in sacks this year, despite Merriman's four-game suspension. The Patriots don't have a particularly explosive offense, and the Chargers don't have an obvious weakness for them to exploit.

This should be the best game of the weekend. With serious misgivings about Belichick and Martyball, I'll take the Chargers to win a low-scoring game, by one touchdown.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 10:03 PM | Comments (0)

Looking Ahead to NHL's Second Half

With the turning of the calendar year, many people are looking back at what happened in 2006. Let's not do that. Instead, let's take a look at some of the burning issues facing teams and players as we enter the second half of the regular season and look forward towards the Stanley Cup playoffs.

How high can Crosby fly?

Halfway through the season, Sidney Crosby's on pace for around 130 points. It's not anywhere near Wayne Gretzky's marks, or even Mario Lemieux's highest total, but he's still putting up extremely impressive totals. The scary thing is that Crosby started out kind of slow and really got into a groove around the game 15 of the season. These days, three-point nights seem almost standard for Crosby, so he may even be able to outpace his current projection.

Will Anaheim falter?

Through the first half of the season, the Ducks only had single-digit regulation losses. Every team hits a slump during a season, and the Ducks are no different. Will critical injuries to their outstanding defensive core (most notably, Chris Pronger) make the top spot in the Western Conference competitive or will the Ducks continue to run away with it?

What will the trade deadline look like?

Last season was the first trade deadline in the NHL's new salary cap era. While a lot of transactions occurred, they were mostly of the depth variety — players who could play anywhere from the second to fourth lines, add character, and a little bit of skill. It wasn't until free agent season when things got really nuts and a tad bit bizarre at times. A few weeks ago, it looked like some teams, such as the Phoenix Coyotes and St. Louis Blues, would be dumping players for prospects faster than an Alexander Ovechkin slap shot. Today, almost all of the teams except for Philadelphia have at least a slight chance of pulling a comeback. Will there be any fire-sales or will this be one of the quietest trade deadlines in NHL history?

Who will turn it around in the Central Division?

Since the beginning of the season, Columbus, Chicago, and St. Louis dug themselves massive holes. It took three coaching changes — Denis Savard in Chicago, Ken Hitchcock in Columbus, and Andy Murray in St. Louis — and a little bit of time, but all three teams found themselves cutting down their goals-against averages and, more importantly, figuring out how to win hockey games. Chicago got over .500 and has been wavering since; Columbus and St. Louis have had flashes off and on, but have struggled to maintain consistency. Will the Central Division see a second-half sprint for the seventh and eighth playoff spots or will these three teams look towards next year?

Will Peter Forsberg retire?

Bad ankles, bad feet, bad head, bad groin — look at a chart of Peter Forsberg and you'll see injuries in almost every part of his body. Sure, every player gets injuries, but few have had the chronic problems that have plagued Forsberg. This season, it's been a combination of things bogging him down and seeing him play is a rarity. Will injuries force Forsberg to call it quits in the middle of the season or will he heal up and get traded for one last good run at the Cup?

Can Hasek stay healthy?

Defying pretty much every critic and observer in North America (and beyond), Dominik Hasek's put up great numbers so far this season and hasn't had any injury woes. Part of the reason he's able to pull this off is because Detroit's been playing a very tight defensive game that limits shots on goal. However, Hasek's groin is about as fragile as, well, Peter Forsberg, meaning that he could be one kick-save away from going on the injured list. Hasek's been playing well, but his recent history shows that he's a gamble. Who knows if and when his groin will take him down again?

Posted by Mike Chen at 9:15 PM | Comments (0)

2006: Not a Year to Play Favorites (Pt. 1)

It has been quite a while since any sports goliath has rightfully taken his throne. In fact, one may have to go back to the 2005 San Antonio Spurs for any situation where a team that won their championship could clearly be deserving to be called the best in the league, and some Detroit Pistons fans may even question that.

Along the way, there have been a few Cinderella stories, as there almost always are in any year, but not as many as one might think. The most memorable such story was George Mason University men's basketball, which did not win an NCAA championship or reach the title game. But for every magical Mason-like story, there was a black sheep champion, a la the St. Louis Cardinals: teams that were not dominant, nor sentimental favorite underdogs. Ho-hummers, if you will. Often, the year's championship struggles were downright showcases of mediocrity.

If we go back to 2005 where this trend began, you may recall that the New England Patriots successfully wrapped up Super Bowl XXXIX over the Eagles, UNC won a championship with one of the most physically imposing teams college basketball had seen in recent years, and Tim Duncan's veteran Spurs outlasted the equally game Detroit Pistons in an epic seven-game clash of titans. All seemed right with the sports world up to that point. Then came the Chicago White Sox.

There was no lack of dominance in Chicago's postseason run of 2005, going 11-1 while shutting down three quality teams with their impeccable starting pitching. However this was also a team that had choked away a massive midseason lead and clearly pressed the panic button as their September free-fall degenerated. This made their dominant October run all the more curious. Had their starting pitchers been replaced by cyborgs? How was Scott Podsednik suddenly hitting home runs? Why couldn't Brad Lidge get anybody out? Why couldn't the Yankees' MVP (or anyone else in that lineup, for that matter) hit anything in the first round? Something strange was happening and it not only spilled over into the following year, it seemingly tainted every square inch of 2006.

From Chicago, we go to Pasadena, where the defending champion USC Trojans had essentially a home game in the Rose Bowl for the championship of college football on January 4, 2006. ESPN had been overflowing the Bowl with absurd amounts of USC hype for weeks leading up to the game, cementing the Trojans as favorites not just to beat Texas, but apparently, to beat every other championship team in the history of college football, at least if you asked their experts.

That's because if you broke it down by names (a.k.a. oversimplified), it was Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Dwayne Jarrett against Vince Young. Both teams were undefeated, but how could even the supremely talented Young, a quarterback who bears a great resemblance to the much-maligned Michael Vick's run-first style, beat the mighty Trojans by himself?

Well, in one of the most breathtaking and spectacular college football games ever played, Young rushed for three touchdowns and lateralled a fourth one to a teammate (albeit illegally) while Reggie Bush struggled through an off-night after his lateral attempt early on did not land where he wanted it. The game's final score occurred on a Young eight-yard scramble around the corner and a sprawling defender's arms on a 4th-and-5 with just 19 seconds left to play to stun the pre-crowned USC team and provide Texas their 41-38 margin of victory.

However, that was just act one. The next fire-breathing dragon to be slayed in sports were the Indianapolis Colts. The supremely talented NFL team was the longest overdue for a championship, especially with the iconic, hard-working, and play-making Peyton Manning at the helm of a star-studded receiving core. The team marched through the regular season hot on the heels of the 1972 Dolphins' undefeated season for 14 weeks. Just like the '98 Denver Broncos who went 13-0 before them, sports fans knew a championship for the Colts team was merely an afterthought.

Yet when San Diego delivered the Colts a stunning home loss in December, the air seemed to come out of the balloon from there. Suddenly, news was reported that coach Tony Dungy tragically lost his son and the team was shaken up. Then a loss to the Seahawks and the heartbroken coach returned in time to eke out a shaky 17-13 victory at home to the awful Cardinals. The team got a week to rest up before playing the sixth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers.

This was seen around the country as merely the afternoon game NFL fans watched while waiting for the more exciting matchup of the day: Panthers at Bears. Yet any fan who missed this one may feel free to stop reading this article for a moment and punch himself in the head one more time for doing so.

For three quarters in the RCA Dome, the Colts' offense looked lost and second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger was going down the field with no problem and took a 14-3 lead into half-time. Surely, the behemoth Colts offense would wake up and drop 35 points in the second half and make everyone forget they were ever behind, right?

Instead, the blitzing Steeler defense continued to make trouble for Manning while the ball-control running game of the Steelers drained away the clock. Veteran RB Jerome Bettis, in his final year, got a going away souvenir with a rushing touchdown that made the score 21-3 and put the Colts behind the eight-ball. It wasn't until this point that Indianapolis' offensive beasts awoke and seized control of the game. An Indy touchdown cut the lead to 21-18 and the dome got loud very quickly.

The game's final sequence of events seemed both endless and surreal. The momentum zigged and zagged more than the routes in Manning's playbook before the Steelers finally survived. Much of the focus of this game remains on the famed Bettis fumble and subsequent Roethlisberger tackle of Nick Harper, as well as Mike Vanderjagt blowing a 46-yard field goal wide right by the length of the team bus. The point remains that the mighty Colts were outplayed at home for the entire 60 minutes they took that field.

The Steelers went on to upset the Broncos in Denver in blowout fashion, and win a tainted and ugly Super Bowl against the Seahawks which will be remembered by many for its poor quarterback play and botched officials calls altering the game's outcome. Even so, Jerome Bettis and the Steelers were a legitimate feel-good story of a champion that no one had given a chance. Yet in 2006, even with the lack of dominance, this was more the exception than the rule.

As it stands right now, many expect the Florida Gators to repeat as NCAA basketball champions because of the talent they were able to keep around from last year's title run. However, that doesn't mean they were favored going into the 2006 tournament. As a No. 3 seed in the Minneapolis Region, the Gators were overlooked beyond teams like Duke and Gonzaga, as J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison were hyped as the most talented individual stars in basketball, behind UConn and Villanova, two of the most heralded starting lineups all-around. Indeed, for the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, Florida was only mentioned in passing as Jim Rome made fun of Joaquim Noah's effeminate appearance on the court.

While all of the aforementioned favored teams were upset as tends to happen in the chance-driven single-elimination tourney, the Gators quietly and easily put all comers to sleep and only had to pull out one close game, to Georgetown, en route to their championship. The Gators also did the honors of sending home the tournament Cinderella, dominating a George Mason team that missed too many easy lay-ups in the national semifinals. Florida had shown their true greatness in the tournament, but had never truly emerged from the pack until that point.

Much like baseball, the NHL has a trend of their best regular season teams unable to win championships in the postseason. The President's Trophy winner (team with the most regular season points, for you non-hockey buffs) generally does not fare well in postseason play, and 2006 was no exception. The Detroit Red Wings appeared as dominant as ever, racking up 124 points and running away with the aforementioned trophy. For their reward, they drew the gritty Edmonton Oilers in round one.

Hockeytown's home team dominated the first two games, but when the scene shifted to north of the border, the Red Wings turned out to be in over their heads. The riotous crowds seemed to lift the Oilers to every crucial goal they would need to win, and just like that, the eighth-seeded Oilers had taken the series last four games, clinching on home ice in game six. In the east, the long-overdue Ottawa Senators pain continued as they were upended in five games by fourth-seeded Buffalo in the conference semis. While the Oilers continued their magical run in the west, it was the quietly talented Carolina Hurricanes that emerged from the No. 2 seed in the East.

In a wild and heart-stopping series, the Oilers lost a three-goal lead and Dwayne Roloson, their star goalie, in just the first game. Backup Ty Conklin gave up a now-infamous goalie-out-of-the-crease goal to Rod Brind'amour with 30 seconds left that won the game for Carolina. The devastated Oilers would fall behind 3-1 before mounting another inspired comeback behind the surprise play of backup goalie Jussi Markkanen before Carolina finally put things away at home in Game 7. Rookie Cam Ward rightfully won the Conn Smythe trophy with consistently solid play all series and all postseason. In the end, the magical eighth-seeded Oilers were denied, but the champion Carolina Hurricanes out of the Sun Belt were hardly the experts' pick to begin with either.

The NBA is currently a league in which the Western Conference is vastly superior to its counterparts in the East. While the West had no clear favorite between San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, and even the Clippers, the Pistons still stood clearly atop the East. The Miami Heat took the No. 2 seed, but with only 52 wins, the team seemed almost too veteran for their own good. They had not taken the regular season terribly seriously, with a porous record against playoff opponents.

Yet just as a good veteran team does, they turned a switch to start the playoffs and made sure to win via blowout, as well as the close games. They did not lose any particular backbreaker games that demoralize a team and turn the series momentum around, and in a surprise, Dwyane Wade, now with elder statesman Shaq, avenged their previous season's loss to Detroit in the Conference Finals, winning in six games.

While the Dallas Mavericks had done the unthinkable by knocking off the San Antonio Spurs in one of the all-time great playoff series and winning Game 7 in overtime on San Antonio's home floor, their old-school-yet-new-age-offense was in high gear going into the finals against the more rugged, lower scoring '90s-style toughness of the Heat. The Mavericks appeared to be clearly the better team throughout the first two games and 42 minutes of game three, until Wade and Miami made a valiant stand.

Wade almost single-handedly dug Miami out of their 13-point hole in the game's final six minutes, making some unbelievable shots before Gary Payton nailed the game winner and Wade came back to the basket on defense to make sure Josh Howard didn't steal a 3-0 series lead above the rim. From then on, Miami used their home court in games four and five to change the complexion of the series. Wade again borrowed Shaq's old Superman cape for the late stages and overtime of Game 5 and not even a shift to Dallas for Game 6 could get the Mavs out of their funk. When Jason Terry's three-pointer rattled out of the basket at the end of Game 6, the Miami Heat became another of 2006's unlikely champions.

Stay tuned this week for part two of this look back at 2006!

Posted by Bill Hazell at 8:34 PM | Comments (0)

January 8, 2007

We're All Doomed!

Headline from CNN.com: "Pat Robertson: God told me of 'mass killing' in 2007." Well, damn. Did he say where?

There's no way a team from the Missouri Valley comes out with fewer than four conference losses. Chances are one of the first-round games in the MVC Tournament becomes an NCAA tournament elimination game (like when Missouri State lost to Northern Iowa last year).

People keep comparing JaMarcus Russell to Daunte Culpepper like it's a good thing.

If I'm Jeff Samardzija, I stick with baseball. There's crazy money for pitchers in baseball. (Jeff Suppan got $42 mil for four years.) Why get your ass kicked for a living if you can make more money not getting your ass kicked for a living?

Take solace, Dolphins fans. At least Nick Saban quit when Denny Green was available. Can you say "Daunte/Denny Reunion?" I bet they can even add Randy Moss for as low as a second-rounder. (Hey, if they can give up a second-rounder for A.J. Feeley, they can give one up for Randy.)

(God, please make this happen. Pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease make this happen.)

(I don't think this will happen. But gosh, it sure would be fun.)

Al Davis needs to hire Rob Ryan, the current defensive coordinator, as the new head coach. He is the perfect man for that team. I'm telling you right now, if they hire Ryan and draft Brady Quinn (and don't blow the rest of their draft and free agency, including getting rid of Aaron Brooks and Jerry Porter), the Raiders are at least an eight-win team next season.

Why does baseball have such an abundance of writers who think they have a moral obligation to protect the sport? Is this a rule in the Baseball Beat Writers' Handbook? Is it a condition for getting a vote for the Hall? (Personally, I blame Mike Lupica. We need to get him and Paul Westphal in a cage match with a hungry lion.)

(For the record, I think Mark McGwire belongs. Then again, I live in St. Louis. I am in no way impartial or objective on the matter.)

I'm just going to come out and say it: Rosie O'Donnell is a loser. On a related note, Ivanka Trump is hot. (You know, in a Bavarian dominatrix kind of way.)

USC (beat Oregon by two and Oregon State by 45) is the third team at the top of the Pac-10, not Washington. The Huskies may actually be sixth behind the top three, then Wazzu and Oregon. Lorenzo Romar has his work cut out for him, and Saturday's pedestrian 11-point win over Arizona State isn't much of a statement.

Hell of a line from the Trojans' win over Oregon, courtesy freshman forward Taj Gibson: 34 minutes, 7-9 FG, 4-6 FT, 18 points, 13 rebounds, 7 blocks, only 1 turnover, only 1 foul. If he stays around (think Tyrus Thomas), he and O.J. Mayo would make for a very powerful force in the Pac-10 next year.

Poor Tony Romo. He looked like he just walked in on his girlfriend getting boned from behind by Jerry Jones. It was disheartening to watch.

Shocker of the weekend: Arkansas 88, Alabama 61. Arkansas just ran Alabama out of the gym, going up 14-nothing to start, and extending to a 49-20 halftime lead. The Tide shot only 35 percent from the floor (22-of-62) and 22 percent from three (4-of-18). It will be interesting to see if Arkansas can keep it going at Florida on Tuesday.

Disappointment of the weekend: DePaul's eight-point win at Villanova. It may be time to admit Mike Nardi isn't much more than a third guard forced into a lead role. Curtis Sumpter can't do it all, and neither can Jay Wright's hair.

(As for DePaul, great job. They'll probably beat Pittsburgh at home on Wednesday, then lose to Rutgers on Saturday.)

It's time to write off Illinois in the Big Ten. Just not enough offense.

St. Louis has back-to-back losses to St. Bonaventure (RPI 320) and Duquense (RPI 210). Talk about the wheels falling off. (Poor Brad Soderberg. He really is a nice guy. He used to live in my mother-in-law's neighborhood, where we take our kid trick-or-treating because the people have nicer cars. He gave good candy.)

Is it just me, or is Jared the Subway guy getting fat again?

My teachers always used to tell me I had the smarts to be one fantastic person in this world, but that I lacked the focus and concentration to take advantage. They even gave me two IQ scores, one for how smart they thought I was, and a lower one for how functionally smart they thought I would become.

(This would explain a lot if you knew me.)

Seth Doria is a freelance father in St. Louis. For more news, notes, updates, tidbits, turns of phrase, and off-color remarks, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 6:23 PM | Comments (0)

January 6, 2007

Why Brees, Mangini Deserve Honors

Before we start handing out NFL postseason awards faster than the Arizona Cardinals can kick a coach to the curb, a few notes from a short winter break for the JQ.

1. "Rocky Balboa." A reviewer for one of the local weekly newspapers gave Stallone's latest palooka opus "****1/2" out of "*****."

I've always been amused by the five-star rating system. Four stars, it always seemed, would suffice in telling the reader that something is excellent, an "A-plus," a superlative effort above all others. To push it to five stars is absurd, a Spinal Tappian "one louder than 10" cry for attention that undermines the entire grading scale for critics, even if that scale is more albatross than accommodating.

I recall a time when Rolling Stone would have a five-star review reserved for what it considered to be an "instant classic." The thought that what amounts to "Rocky VI" is a half-star away from that lofty status makes me question whether it was the first movie my local film scholar has seen without the prefix "Made-for-TV" attached to it.

Don't get me wrong: I enjoyed "Rocky Balboa." I was expecting a paint-by-numbers nostalgia trip, and instead I was treated to a movie with a human heart and a rousing finale that successfully caps the greatest American sports series in cinematic history (sorry, "Major League" and "The Mighty Ducks" ... perhaps your days will come). The entire movie can be read as a melancholy confessional by Stallone about stars becoming relics, headliners becoming sideshows, and legends only being recalled when there's a reason to squeeze a little more cash out of them.

In other words, heavyweight boxers and Hollywood action heroes actually have a whole hell of a lot in common.

2. I attended a Nets/Timberwolves game in New Jersey over the break, and saw three things that drew my interest.

First is the fact that Kevin Garnett has not, to my knowledge, pulled an Allen Iverson yet. Here's a 30-year-old guy with the kind of dominating inside game that could be the final piece to a championship puzzle for half the league, and he's toiling away on a rebuilding team — one populated with rookies, journeymen, and the kinds of players who you might find thrown into a trade to even out the salary cap numbers. After seeing his team miss out on Iverson, and looking at the random faces on his own roster, Garnett must be biting his tongue like a shock therapy patient to avoid ripping Minny management.

I know he makes a ton of money, so trading him wouldn't be easy ... yet I wonder how Vince Carter likes the weather in the Twin Cities?

Second is the fact that women who go to NBA games really need to understand that they're not attending Ladies Night at Crunk or cage dancing at Sizzle. Maybe I'm just used to the hidden joys of a girl in a hockey sweater shuffling through the arena, but I think I saw more skin on Saturday night than Jame Gumb did in "The Silence of the Lambs."

Third is that fact that the evolution of the free t-shirt toss at NBA games continues. What started as a mascot throwing them morphed into a slingshot firing them, which then led to the air cannon blasting them. Now, the Nets have a new innovation: sending t-shirts down from the rafters on little white parachutes, sailing them into the stands. It's an awesome sight, and the fans loved it. I think every NBA city should adopt it ... well, maybe not Oklahoma City. I'd hate for someone in the cheap seats to confuse the t-shirt drop for some kind of beginner's skeet shooting exercise.

3. Finally, the differences between the voice of Dick Clark and that of the late Tom Carvel are now indiscernible. D.C. could go into a commercial for Cookie Puss in the middle of New Year's Rockin' Eve, and no one would even blink.

Onto my NFL postseason awards. Note that these are preferences, not predictions...

Most Valuable Player: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints. He led the NFL in passing yards (4,418), was third in quarterback rating (96.2), and in passing touchdowns (26). He improved statistically from last year to this year in every single passing category except completion percentage. In the NFL, you either believe the QB makes the talent or the talent makes the QB; it's that classic argument people still have about the Joe Montana 49ers and the Troy Aikman Cowboys. The running backs and the coach get the accolades for the Saints' miraculous season; all Brees did was find a way to activate Reggie Bush's immeasurable talent, turn Marques Colston into a star, and keep the passing offense rolling through injuries and adversities. Take him off this team and they're back looking for solutions in the draft.

Giving Brees the MVP is no slight to LaDainian Tomlinson, who will probably win the award anyway. His 31 touchdowns are obscene, and several wins can be attributed directly to his stellar play. Yet he turned what was a playoff team in 2004 and what should have been one in 2005 into a 14-2 team this year; Brees gave a moribund franchise its best season ever. I'm no Katrina sentimentalist, but doing what he did for New Orleans and its football franchise is more valuable than L.T.'s offensive fireworks.

The Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year awards really don't interest me; the former is L.T.'s, and the latter will go to Champ Bailey, even though Jason Taylor could make a claim to it. Ditto the Rookie Awards: One goes to Vince Young, and all we need to know about the other one is that it will not go to Mario Williams.

Coach of the Year: Eric Mangini, New York Jets. Let's just get this out of the way: I am an unapologetic J-E-T-S fan, and this pick will carry that taint. But there's simply no way Mangini isn't the choice here, with the way he managed what little talent he was given and glued together a fractured franchise.

I've read people lobbying for Jeff Fisher, as if finding lightning in a bottle after refusing to open it for several weeks is laudable.

I've read people lobbying for Andy Reid because the Eagles made the postseason after losing Donovan McNabb in Week 11; Mangini made the postseason without having Curtis Martin, the team's top offensive player, for 16 weeks. And, as a replacement, Jeff Garcia > Cedric Houston, Leon Washington, and Kevan Barlow.

And, of course, I've read people already giving this award to Sean Payton, and there's a tangible argument to be made for turning the Saints into Super Bowl contenders and managing their emotions through the reconstruction of both the franchise and the city around them.

I'd argue that Payton had more talent at his disposal and more potential for a breakout season after adding Brees and Bush.

Mangini, meanwhile, didn't just take over a blank canvas — he had one ripped to shreds, and was given about three colors and a broken brush to paint with.

Yet he completed a playoff picture, which is why he's the Coach of the Year.

Enjoy a great weekend of football, folks, and happy New Year...

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 11:04 AM | Comments (0)

January 5, 2007

The Saints Will Go Marching In

Sports in 2006 were marked Cinderella stories and incredible tales of overcoming adversity. Nobody will forget George Mason, the ultimate Cinderella, and their remarkable run to the Final Four. But there were others who defied the odds, as well.

The Detroit Tigers, the laughingstock of Major League Baseball just a short time ago, steamrolled the New York Yankees en route to the World Series. Only then did the train get derailed by the St. Louis Cardinals, who improbably claimed baseball's ultimate prize as owners of the worst record of any of the eight playoff teams.

Then there were those who overcame adversity. Tiger Woods, shaken beyond measure by the loss of his father and best friend Earl Woods, returned with a vengeance and won both the British Open and the U.S. Open.

Most horse-racing fans wanted Barbaro, the Kentucky Derby winner, to be put out of his misery right on the spot after injuring his leg in the first furlong of the Preakness. Barbaro scoffed at such at such a notion. He's still scoffing — and feeling much better — eight months later.

In 2006, we were even fortunate to witness one of those times when Cinderella and adversity collide to yield a simply unforgettable moment. That's what happened when Jason McElwain, an autistic kid who served as manager for the Greek Athena High School basketball team in New York, got into a game late in the fourth quarter and promptly lit up the scoreboard — and the sports world — to the tune of 20 points. Six miraculous three-pointers and hello, Hollywood.

Just one day into 2007, the trend appears to be continuing. Tiny Boise State faced Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and produced a game for the ages. The upstarts from the WAC tied the Big 12 powerhouse on a hook-and-lateral play on 4th-and-18, tied it again in OT on a fourth-down halfback pass, and ultimately won the game with a stunning Statue of Liberty two-point conversion. Yet again, the slipper had fit snugly on Cinderella.

Now it's the New Orleans Saints turn. We all know the adversity aspect of their story, and while the team's status as an underdog isn't quite as striking, it is still very real. After all, the Saints are perennial underdogs. They haven't tasted the playoffs since 2000, and have never reached the NFC Championship game in the history of the franchise. Heck, New Orleans has won just one playoff game in their entire existence.

But as a couple unfortunate teams will soon find out, these aren't your grandfather's Saints.

Assuming Philadelphia can handle a New York Giants squad that has put a new meaning to the term "disappointing," New Orleans will play host to the Eagles in the divisional playoff round. The Saints aren't going to lose in a place that just one year ago was a homeless shelter to a team that's been put together with super-glue. If the Superdome saved lives in 2006, it can suck the life out of the Eagles in 2007.

Even without the motivating extracurricular factors, I still think the Saints would thump Philadelphia. Sure, Jeff Garcia and company aren't even close to as bad as the "superglue" reference might suggest, but they aren't this good. They aren't five-game winning streak material. They wouldn't even be NFC-East Champion material if the Cowboys and Giants had not turned into Santa Claus and delivered the title to the Eagles in a gift-wrapped package.

Garcia has exceeded everyone's expectations since taking over for Donovan McNabb in Week 11 and running back Brian Westbrook is just about the scariest matchup a defense can face. Even the young receiving corps has stepped up and allowed Garcia to spread the wealth — and the ball — all over the field.

Still, Philadelphia's recent surge has come at the expense of mostly listless teams. In the last five weeks of the season, the Eagles disposed of Carolina, the most disappointing team in the NFL, Atlanta, the second most disappointing team in the league, Washington, a terrible disappointment, as usual, Dallas, and the New York Giants. Both of those teams' struggles of late have been well-documented to say the least. For Philadelphia, it won't be quite the same venturing into New Orleans.

Simply put, the Eagles are pretty good. Pretty good won't be good enough in the Superdome.

That's because there will be a few guys on the other sideline who are a lot more than "pretty good." One is the Saints' quarterback. One is a Saints' receiver. Two are Saints' running backs.

Drew Brees would be getting showered with MVP talk had LaDanian Tomlinson not sprinted to NFL immortality this season. The Pro Bowler led the NFL in passing with 4,418 yards and threw 26 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. Rarely was Brees stopped.

The only thing that even came close to stopping Marques Colston in 2006 was an ankle injury. Otherwise the seventh-round pick out of Hofstra would have been the offensive Rookie of the Year. Colston caught 70 passes for 1,038 yards and 8 touchdowns, while essentially playing in just 12 games.

In the backfield, the Saints will see the Eagles' Brian Westbrook with a Reggie Bush and then raise them a Deuce McAllister. McAllister eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, despite deferring 155 carries to Bush. He also scored 10 times despite playing in such a crowded backfield. Just think what the numbers would have been like if the Texans hadn't made a mockery of the No. 1 pick in 2006.

Bush, meanwhile, amassed 1307 yards from scrimmage and found the end zone eight times, including once on a punt return. Only for the mercurial Reggie Bush would such numbers be considered merely respectable. The 2006 Heisman Trophy winner really turned things on late in the season as his ankle injury improved, and with another week before the Saints take the field, Bush should be on fire come playoff time.

It's more than obvious that the Saints can outscore anybody in the NFC. The glaring question mark is if the defense can stop anyone.

I'm not sure whether it's a testament to the Saints' defense or the ineptitude of the rest of the NFC's offenses that I think they answer to that question is they can.

Oh, wait. It must be more about the others' futility, because I just remembered Rex Grossman is the quarterback of the NFC's top team. Or is he? Either way, the simple fact that Grossman led the Chicago Bears to the best record in the conference speaks volumes about the quality of the National Football Conference. As mediocre as the Saints' defense is, the unit should be able to keep whatever offenses they face under control, at least enough to let their own offense win the games.

If the Giants pull off the upset in Philadelphia, New Orleans will host the winner of Seattle and Dallas. The Seahawks floundered into their regular season finale at Tampa Bay with a three-game losing streak before steamrolling the hapless Bucs and clinching the woeful NFC West. Dallas, meanwhile, has lost three of four (the lone win in that span was a less-than-inspiring squeaker over Atlanta), including a season-ending loss at Detroit, a team that had been in line for the No. 1 pick of the 2007 NFL Draft.

Perhaps the most telling fact of any is that it was the Saints who sent the Cowboys into a tailspin with a 42-17 win at Dallas in Week 17. There's no reason to think it wouldn't be equally ugly at New Orleans in the playoffs.

Next up after that would in all likelihood be a visit to Soldier Field. If hostile winter weather reigns down upon Chicago on the day of this potential NFC Championship Game, you can throw all of this analysis out the window. But if Mother Nature gives New Orleans a chance — and, boy, Mother Nature sure owes them a chance — the Bears are in trouble.

It's never easy to say a 13-3 team is struggling going into the postseason, but Chicago is doing just that. The Bears just fell at home 26-7 to Brett Favre and the Packers. That stinkbomb was preceded by a come-from-behind 26-21 victory at Detroit and a 34-31 overtime win at home over the Tampa Bay Bucs. The vaunted Chicago defense surrendered 28 second-half points (21 in the fourth quarter) to a Tampa Bay squad that finished 29th in the league in total offense and ahead of only the Oakland Raiders in scoring.

Considering the two teams' current forms, I'm confident coach Sean Payton could throw an offensive scheme at the Chicago "D" in which Brees would throw all over the Bears, Deuce would run all over the Bears, and Reggie would do everything all over the Bears.

What many people probably don't realize is that Chicago ranked fifth in the league in total defense. It was their 44 takeaways that had the unit being celebrated like this was 1985. The Saints, however, ranked near the top of the NFL in giveaways, turning the ball over just 23 times. In their last five meaningful games (not including the finale against Carolina), New Orleans committed just one turnover. If Brees and company play that kind of flawless ball in Chicago, you can stick a fork in the Bears.

Katrina did not stop the New Orleans Saints and neither will any team in the NFC.

It might be a different story in the Super Bowl, where the Saints would play one of the AFC's goliaths.

But then again, you never know. If the last year in sports has taught us one thing, it's that anything — yes, anything — is possible.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 8:25 PM | Comments (14)

Are You Kidd-ing Me?

The New Jersey Nets have played basically the same at home (9-10) and on the road (4-8). For the Nets to win the tough games, they will need consistent efforts from the tandem of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson. Especially after losing center Nenad Krstic for the season recently due to a torn ACL.

In November, the Nets only played one game against divisional opponents, which resulted in a win against Boston. One would figure that the schedule would be favorable playing lesser teams as the season wore on. But when your record indicates that you are in fact one of those lesser teams, that analogy goes out the window.

When you look at the Eastern Conference, there are a few surprises that jump off the page. First off, disappointments include the Nets and the 13-18 Miami Heat. The defending NBA champions are mired in third place in the Southeast Division. Positive surprises include the 19-14 Orlando Magic and 18-13 Washington Wizards, who are leading that same division. Other than Detroit and the Cleveland Cavaliers, there's no clear-cut favorite on the other side of the Western Conference. There is really no reason why the Nets are struggling so much when the conference is so wide open.

It is early enough in the season where a team can turn it around in time to separate themselves from the pack. Realistically, the Celtics are a mediocre team at best. The Toronto Raptors are a young and improving club that has another season or two in the lottery. The Philadelphia 76ers are bad now, and are worse now that the Allen Iverson excommunication has come to an end. And the New York Knicks? A team that is showing signs of life since the fight, but still has a long way to go.

In the 2005-06 campaign, the Nets ran off wining streaks of 14 and 10 games, which if duplicated this season, will put them comfortably ahead in the division. In head coach Lawrence Frank's tenure, the next double-digit winning streak will be his fourth. So you know that this club has the talent to run off a bunch of consecutive wins.

The Nets are a perimeter-based team that is lacking a presence in the frontcourt. Power forward Jason Collins is a good defender, but will not strike any fear into the opposition with his offense. Rookie Josh Boone, the team's second first-round draft pick out of UConn, has returned from the injured list after suffering a torn labrum which required surgery. He has played sparingly in his first five professional games, but brings enough potential to the table where hopefully can get enough minutes at the four or five to make a difference.

The inexperience on the bench may have some effect on the overall performance of the team. It is hard to maintain a lead or keep a deficit low when five of your backup players are 22-years-old or younger. But they will have to get it together before it is too late. The starters aren't getting any younger and will need the second unit to be able to step in and hold down the fort.

The Nets need to start showing some consistency, especially in their own building. The deeper they dig themselves in this hole, the harder it will be to get back to where they should be.

Posted by Joe Pietaro at 7:17 PM | Comments (1)

NFL Q&A, Playoff Edition

The NFL's second season begins with even more questions to answer than before the regular season started. But before we get to the playoffs, some time has to be spent on a guy who spends more time at the NFL draft than Mel Kiper.

After the 2000 season, the Detroit Lions were on the cusp of being an above-average team. A 54-yard field goal in the final game of that season kept the Lions home that winter, and to poeticize, they have been stuck in the cold ever since.

Matt Millen was hired that offseason to install the winning ways that aided him in his playing days. Millen was on the winning end of four Super Bowls throughout his career. Detroit, conversely, had only won one playoff game since 1957.

The experiment has been an utter catastrophe.

Millen has led Detroit to the worst record in the league in his tenure, more losses than two expansion teams, the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans. An astounding record of 24-72.

With terrible records usually come great draft picks. In the first round, Millen has done nothing of note, except draft three straight receivers in the first round. Only one, Roy Williams, has panned out as of yet.

It is odd that coaches have come and gone, players have changed addresses, but yet Detroit continues to lose. What will it take to prove the problem lies in the front office? Fans to walk out of games ... check. Players to question his GM ability ... check.

This week, he emphatically stated he will never quit. For the fans of Detroit, as long as Millen is running your personnel decisions, you can quit hoping for a playoff run.

Other Thoughts From This Season

Mike Shannahan, tie, and you're in the playoffs ... go for the win? This has talked about to death. Find me one NFL coach who would have played to tie, and I'll show you a coach out of work.

New England Patriots, ask Tom Brady to take a pay cut, then sign ... nobody? The Patriots are pulling a Minnesota Timberwolves and putting their best player around inferior talent. Lucky for him, unlike Kevin Garnett, he's won a couple rings, but his season ends before a trip to Miami.

Carolina Panthers ... Super Bowl runner-ups '03, '04: 7-9, '05: NFC championship runner-ups, '06: 8-8, '07: playoff team? Who knows what to think of this team? Jake Delhomme has been outed as a below-average quarterback, the defense played inconsistent all year, so is it the game plan, coach?

Miami Dolphins ... Got a coach? One of the most storied franchises in NFL history has never been the same since Don Shula left. Now Nick Saban has left the NFL to go to college, when's the last time any coach did that?

Donovan McNabb ... what are you thinking right now?

The Eagles, on the other hand, have a serious shot at an NFL crown. Yes, I'm bias, as anyone who read my predictions column can attest to, but it is not that far-fetched considering how much parity exists in the NFC this year.

Saturday's game features two teams going the wrong way down a one-way street. The Cowboys, losers of three of their last four, have come down to earth since winning four straight during Tony Romo's "Pro Bowl" period. The defense looked absolutely befuddled against Detroit in the season finale, and have given up a league-high 132 points to close out its last four games.

Seattle? Well, let's just put it this way, the Seahawks gave up more points then they scored this year. The defending NFC champions also have lost three of their last four, including a defeat at the hands of Arizona, and a completed sweep by the 49ers. Seattle has given the ball away eight more times this year than they have recovered, all leading to what will be an absolute shoot-out.

Seattle is at home with two of the best players in the NFC in their backfield in Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, and those two will prove to be the difference as Seattle holds court to move on and end a wild season for the Cowboys, who have 79 million reasons to want to play next year.

In the other NFC matchup, the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles, behind veteran Jeff Garcia, take on division rival New York Giants. The two teams split the season series, and both teams are headed in different directions.

The Giants started off the year hot, finishing off the first half of the season at 6-2. The problem is, the G-Men finished off the year 2-6. Eli Manning has been exposed as an average quarterback who makes too many bad decisions. Luckily for New York, they have Tiki Barber playing in his last season. Tom Coughlin will live and die with Barber, holding Manning's hand in the process.

While the offense has been more than up to the task, the defense has been injury-ridden to the point that the word on the street is Jim Burt is dusting off his sweats to get back in there. Okay, that might be a stretch, but so is New York's defense. The Giants have allowed 107 points in their past four games — fourth-worst in the league. They've allowed 399.3 yards per game in that span — the second-worst average.

Philly on the other hand has been rolling, winning five straight, including defeats over Dallas and New York both on the road. But to not jinx the team I root for, and let subjectivity rule my pen, I'll leave it at that, and let the stats speak for themselves.

In the AFC, someway or another the gods smiled down and granted Kansas City an improbable playoff berth. Then, to sweeten the deal, the Chiefs got the Indianapolis Colts and the worst rush defense in the NFL. The game plan for both is simple. KC wants to run the ball down Indy's throat, mimicking the thumping Jacksonville laid on the Colts earlier this year. Indy hopes to get up big early, and take away Larry Johnson from the equation.

They say defense wins in the playoffs, that's why the Colts keep losing. I say Peyton Manning chokes in the big games, and with a terrible defense, allowing 109 points over the past four games, more than any team in the AFC over that span, the Chiefs pull off the upset and win one for Lamar Hunt.

On Sunday, it's another tasty matchup as the Jets and Eric Mangini take on his mentor, Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots. If you haven't heard Mangini's story as to how he came an NFL head coach, I suggest you do. It is a testament to hard work and dedication. Nobody expected the Jets to be here, including me, and as much as I like the Jets and all they have accomplished this year, it's hard to go against, Belichick, Tom Brady, and the experience the Patriots bring to the table.

The two teams split the series, but the postseason is something different, and Mangini will get a view from a different room, to why Belichick and the Patriots have been so successful this decade.

The Patriots move on and visit Baltimore. San Diego hosts division rival Kansas City.

Philadelphia visits New Orleans. Soldier Field and Chicago welcome Seattle.

And, this just in, Matt Millen has drafted Calvin Johnson ... it could happen.

Posted by Wailele Sallas at 6:35 PM | Comments (1)

January 4, 2007

SC's 2006 NFL All-Pro Team

For the second consecutive season, I'm devoting an entire column to my annual all-pro team, rather than simply listing my choices at the end of the Week 17 power rankings.

I put a lot of thought into these selections, not to mention a lot of Sunday afternoons staring at linemen and more than a few "instant replay" clicks on the TiVo remote. I'm writing this column to explain the reasons I chose certain players, or didn't take others, and to give recognition to those who just missed my list. If all you care about is who made the team, you'll find a condensed list at the bottom.

For the second season in a row, I'm taking more than 11 players on both offense and defense. Most teams regularly employ a third wide receiver and a second tight end, so my team has three wideouts and two tight ends. I also have a nickel back and two inside linebackers, since about a quarter of the league uses one DT and two ILBs. I'll list each position in the order I picked the players, so you'll know which receiver is my third, which tight end is my second, and so on.

Quarterback: Peyton Manning (IND)
Last Year: Peyton Manning (IND)

Honestly, I'm tired of picking him. This is the fourth season in a row I've named Manning my all-pro QB. But he's the most consistent producer at his position, and some of the clutch wins he pulled out early in the season were incredible. Manning has the numbers — first in passer rating, second in yards, first in passing TDs, first in TD/INT differential — but all you have to do is watch the Colts play, and Manning makes plays no one else in the game is capable of.

I know he has Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and that great offensive line, plus some pretty good offensive coaches in Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell. But Manning is the game's best quarterback, and he's my choice. For those interested, Drew Brees (NO) was his only serious competition.

Running Back: LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
Last Year: Tiki Barber (NYG)

No discussion necessary here. Tomlinson had a legendary season. In the last 20 years, you talk about Barry Sanders in '97, Terrell Davis in '98, Marshall Faulk in 2000, and LT in '06. No one else is close to what he's done this year. Not Eric Dickerson in the late '80s, or Thurman Thomas in the early '90s. Not Emmitt in 1995. Not Priest Holmes or Tiki Barber or Shaun Alexander. When Tomlinson is enshrined in the Hall of Fame, this is the season people will talk about.

Fullback: Lorenzo Neal (SD)
Last Year: Tony Richardson (KC)

Besides being the lead blocker for Tomlinson, Neal also gained over 200 yards from scrimmage this season and picked up 24 first downs, mostly on third or fourth down with short yardage to go. Watch the replays of Tomlinson's touchdown runs, and on every one, you'll see Neal keep someone out of the way. I didn't seriously consider anyone else.

Wide Receiver: Roy Williams (DET), Reggie Wayne (IND), Marvin Harrison (IND)
Last Year: Steve Smith (CAR), Santana Moss (WAS), Hines Ward (PIT)

This is usually the hardest position to narrow down, and this year was no exception. Chad Johnson (CIN) led the NFL in receiving yards, but I didn't like his inconsistency and I'm not crazy about him as a team player. Andre Johnson (HOU) led the league in catches, but he averaged a tight end-like 11.1 yards per catch and didn't make a lot of big plays. Terrell Owens (DAL) led all receivers in scoring, but he's a drop machine and he's team poison.

I won't miss those guys on my all-pro squad, but there were others it really hurt to leave off. I've never picked Torry Holt (STL), but he and Harrison are the two best receivers of the decade so far. Steve Smith (CAR) is another proven talent. Finally, Anquan Boldin (ARI ), Donald Driver (GB), and Lee Evans (BUF) accomplished great things on mediocre offenses, without a lot of help. They didn't make the cut this season, but I'll be keeping a serious eye on them in the future.

With such stiff competition, it should come as no surprise that I'm enthusiastic about the players I did take. No receiver impressed me more this season than Williams. He opened things up for everyone else on that offense, finishing with 1,310 yards, tied for third in the NFL, and averaged 16 yards per reception, the second-highest mark of any 1,000-yard receiver this season. Wayne and Harrison run the most precise routes in the NFL (with the possible exception of Holt), and they're masters of the catch in tight coverage and the toe-tap on the sideline. It helps to catch passes from Manning, but these guys are at the top of their trade.

Tight End: Antonio Gates (SD), Tony Gonzalez (KC)
Last Year: Antonio Gates (SD), Chris Cooley (WAS)

Only one other player, Kellen Winslow, Jr. (CLE), is even close. Gates, my starter, was the leading receiver on the league's highest-scoring offense. If you're wondering why Tomlinson didn't see eight- and nine-man defensive fronts on every play, it's because they had to figure out how to cover Gates. Gonzalez had his fourth consecutive 900-yard season, and continues to be the benchmark against whom other tight ends are measured.

Center: Nick Hardwick (SD)
Last Year: Jeff Hartings (PIT)

There's no one I'm crazy about this year, but Hardwick, the heart of a line that blocked for LaDainian Tomlinson and allowed just 150 sack yards all season, is my choice. Other contenders were Jeff Saturday (IND), who will probably be AP's choice, plus Casey Wiegmann (KC), Dan Koppen (NE), Olin Kreutz (CHI), and Kevin Mawae (TEN), who came on at the end of the season to help Vince Young and Travis Henry.

Guard: Shawn Andrews (PHI), Brian Waters (KC)
Last Year: Steve Hutchinson (SEA), Brian Waters (KC)

Andrews, the Big Kid, was the league's best offensive lineman this season. He's a phenomenal run-blocker and a good pass-blocker, and he was an easy choice for my all-pro team. The other guard position was harder to choose. This is the fourth straight season I've taken Waters, but with less enthusiasm than in the past. Until very recently, I planned to go with Andrews and Marco Rivera (DAL), but Rivera seemed to wear down at the end of the season and was not impressive during the Cowboys' late-season slump.

Offensive Tackle: Jammal Brown (NO), Marcus McNeill (SD)
Last Year: Walter Jones (SEA), Tarik Glenn (IND)

I'm going with a youth movement here. McNeill is a rookie, but he's done a terrific job on the left side of San Diego's line. Brown is a hip pick, and I thought he was great in the first half of the season, making him my top choice in the NFC when I voted for the Pro Bowl. He hasn't been as sharp when I've seen him in the second half of the season, but I've heard too many people praise him to leave him off my team.

Jones, an easy choice last season, really struggled without Steve Hutchinson next to him this year, and only three teams allowed more sacks than Seattle. Glenn was better than that, but not at an all-pro level. The closest calls were Jon Runyan (PHI) and surprisingly, Jonathan Ogden (BAL). After years of being the best at his position, Ogden wasn't impressive the last two seasons, but he's really played well this year.

Defensive Tackle: Tommie Harris (CHI), Kelly Gregg (BAL)
Last Year: Cornelius Griffin (WAS), Tommie Harris (CHI)

Harris missed the last four games of the season, but before that he was playing not only at all-pro level, but near Defensive Player of the Year level. Chicago's defense hasn't been the same without him, giving up over 20 points in all four games he missed, compared with only twice in the 12 games he played. Gregg is the best player on the league's best defense, and he sets up everyone around him. I agonized over a way to get Pat Williams (MIN) — the rock in the middle of a line that nearly set a record for rush defense — in here, but I can't leave off Harris or Gregg.

Defensive End: Jason Taylor (MIA), Aaron Kampman (GB)
Last Year: Osi Umenyiora (NYG), Simeon Rice (TB)

I'm not as impressed as some people are with Taylor, who's a serious DPOY candidate, but he's had a terrific season, adding two interception returns for touchdowns to his 13.5 sacks. Kampman, who's been impressive but inconsistent in the past, put everything together this year, edging a host of other talented DEs. There's not space to go into specifics on all of them, but some of the other guys I considered were Derrick Burgess (OAK), Leonard Little (STL), Trevor Pryce (BAL), and both of my 2004 choices, Julius Peppers (CAR) and Aaron Schobel (BUF). Pryce and Schobel were probably the closest.

Outside Linebacker: Shawne Merriman (SD), Lance Briggs (CHI)
Last Year: Shawne Merriman (SD), Keith Bulluck (TEN)

Merriman, despite his four-game suspension for a banned substance, wreaked havoc on NFL offenses this season. When he was on the field, no defensive player in the league was more dominant this year. Briggs was the total package, making plays all over the field. Adalius Thomas (BAL) and DeMarcus Ware (DAL) were the hardest players to leave off my team.

Inside Linebacker: Zach Thomas (MIA), Brian Urlacher (CHI)
Last Year: Brian Urlacher (CHI), Mike Peterson (JAC)

Peterson would have been a lock if he'd stayed healthy — no interior linebacker played at a higher level in the first month of the season. Thomas, along with Jason Taylor, formed the heart of Miami's fourth-ranked defense. Urlacher is a perfect fit for his team, and probably excels in the company of great teammates more than any other linebacker. London Fletcher-Baker (BUF) had a fantastic season, and just missed the cut here. Fletcher is likely to hit free agency, and teams looking for defensive help could make a huge stride by signing him.

Cornerback: Champ Bailey (DEN), Rashean Mathis (JAC), Chris McAlister (BAL)
Last Year: Ronde Barber (TB), Ken Lucas (CAR) , Rashean Mathis (JAC)

There's no discussion necessary on Bailey, who seemed to make quarterbacks pay every time they threw in his direction this year. He, Mathis, and Charles Tillman (CHI) are the only players with at least five interceptions in each of the last two seasons, and Mathis actually has five or more picks three years running. Mathis is that rare player, like Everson Walls 20 years ago, who gets a ton of interceptions not because teams are picking on him, but simply because he's an incredible ballhawk. McAlister had a career year, but he barely edged out Asante Samuel (NE) and Lito Sheppard (PHI).

Free Safety: Brian Dawkins (PHI)
Last Year: Sean Taylor (WAS)

Nobody else was close. Dawkins set a career-high in tackles, intercepted four passes, forced five fumbles, and blitzed opposing quarterbacks every game, netting a sack against Washington's stingy offensive line. Dawkins seemed to be a part of every big play Philadelphia made on defense.

Strong Safety: Adrian Wilson (ARI)
Last Year: Troy Polamalu (PIT)

At the top of his game, Polamalu is the best, but he was playing hurt or out of the lineup entirely at times, and Wilson was a monster. He tallied five sacks, four interceptions, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and two touchdowns, including a 99-yard INT return. Besides Polamalu, the closest competition was from Chris Hope (TEN), a good player on the league's last-ranked defense, and Roy Williams (DAL), who had his best season since his rookie campaign in 2002. Keep an eye on young up-and-comers Dawan Landry (BAL) and Sean Considine (PHI), both of whom were also in the running.

Kicker: Matt Stover (BAL)
Last Year: Neil Rackers (ARI)

Selecting a kicker was tough this year. Stover missed only two kicks all season, one of which came on a botched snap. He edged John Kasay (CAR), who didn't miss from under 50 yards all season, and Nate Kaeding, who led all AFC kickers in scoring, plus Josh Brown (SEA), Rob Bironas (TEN), and Matt Bryant (TB). Brown was clutch, repeatedly hitting game-winners in the closing minutes, but he struggled with consistency, making barely 80% of his kicks, compared with 93% for Stover. Bironas and Bryant both hit 60-yarders this year, but they just missed too many others.

Punter: Brian Moorman (BUF)
Last Year: Mike Scifres (SD)

I figured that Moorman and Scifres would be the only contenders, but I also looked at Dustin Colquitt (KC), who led the league in net average, and Matt Turk (STL), who forced fair catches more often than anyone else. In the end, though, it came down to Moorman, who got a little more distance and had to fight the Buffalo winds, over Scifres, the league's best at avoiding touchbacks and pinning opponents inside their 10-yard-lines.

Kick Returner: Devin Hester (CHI)
Last Year: Terrence McGee (BUF)

A lot of returners had great seasons, but Hester, who finished among the top five in both kick return and punt return average, with a combined five TDs, was in a league of his own.

Offensive Player of the Year: LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
Last Year: Tiki Barber (NYG)

I gave the briefest of considerations to Manning, Brees, and even Andrews, but there's no way this goes to someone other than LT. He really had a historic year.

Defensive Player of the Year: Champ Bailey (DEN)
Last Year: Troy Polamalu (PIT)

Tight competition here. Tommie Harris would have been a contender if he hadn't missed the end of the season, and I considered Jason Taylor and Brian Urlacher simply because the hype was so big. Ultimately, this came down to Bailey or Shawne Merriman. I probably would have gone with Merriman if he'd played the whole season, but the choice is Bailey, who had the best season I've seen from a cornerback this decade.

Most Valuable Player: LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
Last Year: Tiki Barber (NYG)

Tomlinson was the best player on the best team. With the possible exception of Peyton Manning in 2004, this is the easiest MVP choice I've ever made.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)
Last Year: Cadillac Williams (TB)

I can't remember a year with so many great rookies. Vince Young (TEN) had a 66.7 passer rating, but he got better every week and was nails under pressure. Reggie Bush (NO) showed flashes of the potential he demonstrated in college, especially as a receiver out of the backfield. Hester was the league's best returner. McNeill was a dominant left tackle. Joseph Addai (IND) filled in nicely for Edgerrin James, rushing for over 1,000 yards and averaging 4.8 yards per carry. And Marques Colston (NO), the prohibitive favorite halfway through the season, gained over 1,000 yards despite an injury and a subsequent slow finish.

I chose Jones-Drew because he was so dangerous in so many ways. Jones-Drew rushed for nearly 1000 yards despite splitting time with Fred Taylor, and he led all NFL running backs with a 5.7 rushing average. MJD was also an effective receiver, finishing second on the team in receptions and gaining over 400 receiving yards. Finally, he was an exceptional kick returner, averaging 27.7 yards, more than a yard better than Hester's average. Jones-Drew scored 16 TDs this season, easily the best mark by a rookie, and no first-year player had a better season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: DeMeco Ryans (HOU)
Last Year: Shawne Merriman (SD)

I think Ryans has been a little over-hyped, and I hate taking the popular choice, but Ryans was just a huge contributor this year. I take tackle statistics with a grain of salt, but it's indisputable that Ryans was the playmaker on Houston's defense, and he also contributed 3.5 sacks and an interception. That kind of all-around production is what you want to see from a middle linebacker.

Also in the running here were Mark Anderson (CHI), who had 12 sacks; A.J. Hawk (GB), whose contributions were similar to Ryan's; Landry, whom I nearly picked as my all-pro strong safety; and Kamerion Wimbley (CLE), who tallied 11 sacks.

Coach of the Year: Sean Payton (NO)
Last Year: Tony Dungy (IND)

Eric Mangini (NYJ) and Payton did such a good job rebuilding their teams this year that everyone is ignoring Marty Schottenheimer (SD), Brian Billick (BAL), Lovie Smith (CHI), and Bill Belichick (NE). Payton, though, is an easy choice. In his first year on the job, taking over a team that was still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and a 2005 season without home games — a team that hadn't made the playoffs since 2000, and not since 1992 before that — a team relying on rookies and a free agent quarterback coming back from shoulder surgery — Payton turned them into contenders.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Rex Ryan (BAL)
Last Year: Tom Moore (IND)

A few weeks ago, Cam Cameron (SD) still had this sewn up, but with Philip Rivers' shaky finish, I'll give it to the defensive coordinator of the league's best unit. Ryan probably won't get a head coaching gig just yet, especially if Baltimore makes a deep postseason run, but both he and his brother, Rob Ryan (OAK), are starting to attract a lot of attention around the league.

Besides Cameron and the Ryans, I considered Doug Marrone (NO) and Ron Rivera (CHI).

2006 All-Pro Team

QB Peyton Manning, IND
RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
FB Lorenzo Neal, SD
WR Roy Williams, DET
WR Reggie Wayne, IND
WR Marvin Harrison, IND
TE Antonio Gates, SD
TE Tony Gonzalez, KC
C Nick Hardwick, SD
G Shawn Andrews, PHI
G Brian Waters, KC
OT Jammal Brown, NO
OT Marcus McNeill, SD

DT Tommie Harris, CHI
DT Kelly Gregg, BAL
DE Jason Taylor, MIA
DE Aaron Kampman, GB
OLB Shawne Merriman, SD
OLB Lance Briggs, CHI
ILB Zach Thomas, MIA
ILB Brian Urlacher, CHI
CB Champ Bailey, DEN
CB Rashean Mathis, JAC
CB Chris McAlister, BAL
FS Brian Dawkins, PHI
SS Adrian Wilson, ARI

K Matt Stover, BAL
P Brian Moorman, BUF
KR Devin Hester, CHI

Off POY — LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Def POY — Champ Bailey, DEN
MVP — LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Off Rookie — Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
Def Rookie — DeMeco Ryans, HOU
Coach — Sean Payton, NO
Assistant — Rex Ryan, BAL

Posted by Brad Oremland at 10:26 PM | Comments (0)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wildcard Round

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

It all fell into place for the Kansas City. Not only did the Bengals, Titans, and Broncos lose, just as Herman Edwards' personal shaman predicted, but the Chiefs will face the Colts and their "holy" run defense. Indy is last in the league in rushing defense, and KC's Larry Johnson set an NFL record with 416 rushing attempts this season.

"We like our chances," says Edwards. "As I've said before, 'you play to win the game.' Obviously, Larry is our workhorse, and after 416 carries, 50 more won't kill him, at least not against the Colts' 'My Little Pony' rush defense. What I like about the Colts' defense is that they don't play the traditional one-gap or two-gap schemes. They actually give you the choice of the gap. No one ever accused the Indianapolis defense of not being compassionate. By the way, Larry's not Italian, so I don't foresee him getting 'spaghetti legs.'"

Indianapolis kept their undefeated home record intact with a 29-24 win over the Dolphins. Peyton Manning threw two touchdown passes, which gave him 274 for his career, and passed Joe Montana for seventh all-time.

"I though the Dolphins might beat us until Cleo Lemon's Hail Mary sailed into the 12th row of the stands," says Manning, who is tied for last in Super Bowl wins by a quarterback, all-time and among current players. "Cleo tossed that one further away than Nick Saban flung his Miami contract. Anyway, we're going to give our fans more of what they've become used to: wins at home. But fans, you've got to lose the sarcasm when making the 'defense' chant."

The Chiefs jump on the Colts early. Johnson rushes for 45 yards on the first drive of the game, and scores from two yards out as the Chiefs eat up eight minutes of the quarter. It's 7-0 Kansas City, and the boos are heard from the restless Indy fans. But Manning, as he's done all year, doesn't point fingers, and encourages his defense.

"Guys, they're not booing," Manning explains. "They're saying 'goo-bers.' Come on! Pony-up!"

Then, after leading the offense on an 11-play, 72-yard drive, capped by a touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison, Manning makes his greatest audible call ever. He tells the defense to load up the box with nine defenders, giving Trent Green no option but to check down into a pass. Once the ball is snapped, Manning tells all nine guys to drop into coverage.

"Let Trent Green run it," says Manning. "He won't get far."

"That's brilliant!" exclaims Colts defensive coordinator Ron Meeks. "Why didn't I think of that?"

Manning's scheme works to perfection, and the Colts win, 30-20.

Dallas @ Seattle

In their home finale, the Cowboys gave up four Jon Kitna touchdown passes, two to Roy Williams, in a 39-31 loss to the 3-13 Lions that left Bill Parcells scratching his head, albeit while enjoying a lovely massage and pedicure from the spindly fingers of Raider owner Al Davis. With Detroit's win, the Raiders secured the No. 1 pick in April's NFL draft.

"At least someone got a happy ending," says Parcells. "Congratulations, Raiders. As for me, I'm quite disappointed. A mere five weeks ago, we were everyone's pick as the NFC favorite and Tony Romo was everybody's darling. But who hasn't been an NFC favorite at some point this year? I'll tell you who won't be an NFC favorite — the NFC representative in the Super Bowl, that's who. As far as Romo goes, he needs to spend as much time on film and practice as he does in choosing his blonde starlets to date. First Jessica Simpson, now Carrie Underwood. I wonder if Carrie knows that 'Chicken of the Sea' is tuna, not chicken. Hell, I wonder if Tony knows it. We'll go as far in the playoffs as Tony takes us."

The Seahawks, like the Cowboys, lost three of their last four, and were also considered the NFC's favorite, for, oh, about eight minutes in to their Week 4 loss at Chicago. But at least Seattle won their final game, beating the Buccaneers in Tampa 23-7 while losing cornerbacks Kelly Herndon and Jimmy Williams to injury.

"I guess beating Tampa Bay wasn't so important," says Mike Holmgren. "But who wants to go into the playoffs with an 8-8 record, with a home game, as a division winner, for God's sake? That's pathetic. Anyway, we'll take a page from the Patriots and Troy Brown, and play some of our wide receivers at defensive back. Even at wide receiver, those guys are great at getting a hand on the ball, just not catching it, so that should work out well."

After a shaky start, Romo is benched, and the fiery young quarterback from Eastern Illinois accuses Parcells of being a "Romo-phobe." He also reminds Parcells that Drew Bledsoe is the backup. Parcells acquiesces to political correctness, and his better judgment, and puts Romo back in before Bledsoe can take a snap. Romo then throws two touchdown passes, one to Terrell Owens, who then signs the football with a Sharpie pen and presents it to Dallas owner Jerry Jones.

Dallas wins, 27-24.

New York Jets @ New England

In what could be wildcard weekend's most intriguing and most brutal matchup, Eric "The Ice" Mangini and the Jets travel to storied Gillette Stadium to face Bill Belichick and the Patriots in round three of the "Insincere Congratulatory Handshake Bowl." New England won at the Meadowlands in Week 2, while the Jets won in Foxboro in Week 10. New England was 5-3 at home this year, while the Jets were 6-2 on the road. Both teams are riding three-game winning streaks.

"They couldn't write a better script in Hollywood," says Tom Brady, "although the writing in 'Jackass 2' was phenomenal. Especially the part where Miami's Jason Taylor watches Wee Man bungee jump off a bridge while tethered to the fat dude. Classic! Just like Sunday's game will be. You've got Belichick versus Mangini. The master versus the student. 'Chick versus Man.' All we need now is snow. The forecast calls for cold shoulders and icy handshakes, so maybe it will. We know the Jets will be ready to play, and they'll try to 'impose their will' on us. Well, we're going to 'impose our Bill' on them. We'll see how they like it."

"Look, this whole Belichick/Mangini feud has been blown way out of proportion," says Mangini. "I don't like to lose to him; he doesn't like to lose to me. When the playoffs are over, win or lose, I fully expect Bill and I to rekindle our friendship in the same dark, secluded place we started it — the film room. And I expect the Patriots' fans and organization to treat me with the respect I deserve."

When the Jets take the field on Sunday, Mangini is stunned to hear the theme music from I Dream of Jeannie blaring from the PA system. But he remedies it quickly by tuning his Motorolla head set to the tune of Ace Frehley's "New York Groove." Both teams start conservatively, with Mangini playing it close to the vest, while Belichick plays it close to his capri pants, a sensible fashion choice on an unseasonably warm New England afternoon. With the score tied 16-16 in the fourth, the Patriots face a 3rd-and-10 from the Jets' 17-yard line. Brady calls his own number, and his 17-yard quarterback sneak results in a touchdown.

Patriots win, 23-16.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia

The Giants continued their roller coaster-ride of a season when they beat the Redskins last Saturday to squeeze their way in to the playoffs. After starting the season 6-2, the G-Men finished 2-6 to claim the NFC's final wildcard spot.

"Man, talk about peaks and valleys," says Eli Manning, accepting an invitation to the Pro Bowl, as a guest of brother Peyton. "It's been more like 'peak, valley, valley, valley, valley, peak, valley, valley, big valley, peak.' Right now, we're peaking at the right time. We've won one game in a row. If we win the opening coin toss, we'll really be hot."

The Eagles are the NFC's hottest team right now, having won five in a row to win the East and earn a first-round home game. Jeff Garcia has assumed leadership of the Eagles, with a 5-1 record as a starter. Philly and New York split their regular season series, with the home team losing both games. Garcia knows nothing is guaranteed in the wide-open NFC race.

"Look, all of the Giants losses were against teams that qualified for the playoffs or just missed the playoffs," says Garcia. "So, we know the G-Men play good teams well; they just can't beat them. They're very unpredictable, and seem to have more lives than a cat, or "24's" Jack Bauer. The Giants have faced a lot of criticism this year, and you know what happens when a Giant is backed into a corner — Michael Strahan gets offended."

With Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress, and Eli Manning, the Giants certainly have firepower, but not as much as Tank Johnson's domestic arsenal. And, I doubt Manning will win any commendations for marksmanship. The aggressive Eagles defense is by no means bulletproof, like Matt Millen, but they always seem to make the game-changing plays. And they do again. With the Giants down 21-17, Manning's desperation underhanded lateral is picked off by Brian Dawkins and returned three yards for a score.

Philly wins, 28-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:11 PM | Comments (1)

January 3, 2007

NCAA Sleeper Watch: Spin Cycle

A few notes from the past week or so:

If you're getting beat by the Tar Heels, don't expect a cheap come-back cover like Arizona gave Cal earlier in the week. Roy Williams had his best guys in there with five minutes left and a 30-point lead. They put their feet on Dayton's throat and ground it out like a burnt cigarette. It was brutal to watch.

(Duke does not possess this kind of mean streak. This is why UNC wins the ACC and gets the No. 1 seed overall.)

If Selection Sunday were today, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona would be my other No. 1 seeds. Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and UCLA would be No. 2 seeds. There's a gaggle of teams that could make an argument for the three or four lines. Texas A&M would definitely be a three.

So Saddam has been dead for a few days now. Feel any different?

Stanford played a fantastic game against Arizona. They would have beaten 95 percent of the teams in the country with that performance. It was one the best jobs passing I've seen this year, especially with such a young team that relies so heavily on its big guys to handle the ball. And there's no way they don't lead the Pac-10 in offensive rebounds this year. It was only through the sheer will of Mustafa Shakur that Arizona turned around a Stanford rally and prevented a national shocker.

Is it just me, or does this whole Gerald Ford remembrance seem a little empty? It's like everybody feels like they should feel bad because he was the president, but nobody really feels bad. I mean no disrespect to his legacy. Perhaps it's just my generation (born in '75) can't really appreciate the job facing a president in the post-Watergate/end of Vietnam era.

Listening to Paul Westphal through the second half and double overtime of the USC/Washington game on FSN West was truly painful. I'm holding a grudge.

God love the Air Force. Not only will these cadets one day protect our freedom with their fast planes and big bombs (I am not being sarcastic), but I can always count on them for a cover when the tide is otherwise turning against me. (And I can always count on the odds-makers not counting on them, which is also nice.)

Ben Hansbrough the freshman is good. Ben Hansbrough the senior is going to be awesome. I expect at least one Elite Eight run from Mississippi State during his career.

Andrei Arlovski a bad, bad man. UFC 66 on Saturday was the best fighting pay-per-view I've ever seen — boxing or MMA. Just classic fight after classic fight — It was an awesome spectacle of brutality. Boxing is falling farther and farther behind.

Speaking of boxing, "Mike Tyson was arrested for driving under the influence and possession of cocaine after police stopped him leaving a Scottsdale nightclub early Friday." Am I bad person for smiling when I read that?

Nebraska just quietly goes rolling along.

UNLV is on a roll. (I can't wait until they play Air Force on Saturday.)

God damn, Hofstra's Loren Stokes is quick.

Connecticut looks like they're playing ball at Rucker Park.

And Wichita State falls again. (SHOCKA!)

(I go to the MVC Tournament here in St. Louis every year, and the Wichita State fans walk around yelling "Shocker!" at everybody. I'm originally from the East Coast, so it sounds like "Shocka!" when I say it. My friends and I then yell "SHOCKA!" at everybody for at least a week. It's good fun.)

***

On to this month's NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch. Remember the objective is to identify underdog teams capable of making at least a Sweet 16 run as a 6 seed or lower in the 2007 tournament. (the rules)

The Watch

1. Drexel (9-2, 1-0 Colonial, RPI*: 7)
2. Villanova (11-2, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 11)
3. Maryland (13-2, 0-1 ACC, RPI: 13)
4. UNLV (13-2, 0-0 Mountain West, RPI: 9)
5. Nebraska (9-3, 0-0 Big 12, RPI: 48)
6. Wichita State (9-4, 0-2 Missouri Valley, RPI: 50)
7. Washington State (12-2, 1-1 Pac-10, RPI: 31)
8. Purdue (11-3, 0-0 Big Ten, RPI: 39)
9. South Carolina (9-2, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 58)
10. Missouri (11-2, 0-0 Big 12, RPI: 36)
11. Northern Iowa (11-2, 2-0 Missouri Valley, RPI: 41)
12. West Virginia (11-1, 1-0 Big East, RPI: 69)
13. Missouri State (11-3, 2-1 Missouri Valley, RPI: 33)
14. Bradley (10-5, 1-2 Missouri Valley, RPI: 22)
15. St. Louis (10-3, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 44)
16. Dayton (10-3, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 60)
17. DePaul (9-5, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 53)
18. Providence (9-3, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 62)
19. Stanford (8-3, 1-1 Pac-10, RPI: 52)
20. Hofstra (8-4, 1-0 Colonial, RPI: 85)
21. Mississippi (11-3, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 104)
22. Winthrop (10-3, 0-0 Big South, RPI: 42)
23. Ohio (9-3, 0-0 MAC, RPI: 65)
24. Mississippi State (9-4, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 88)
25. San Diego State (11-3, 0-0 Mountain West, RPI: 61)
26. Texas Tech (11-4, 0-0 Big 12, RPI: 43)
27. Western Kentucky (11-4, 3-1 Sun Belt, RPI: 40)
28. Davidson (12-3, 3-0 Southern, RPI: 28)
29. Cincinnati (9-4, 0-0 Big East, RPI: 122)
30. Akron (9-3, 0-0 MAC, RPI: 147)
31. George Washington (8-3, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 98)
32. Appalachian State** (11-3, 3-0 Southern, RPI: 10)
33. Georgia (8-4, 0-0 SEC, RPI: 107)
34. New Mexico (11-4, 0-0 Mountain West, RPI: 91)
35. Temple (6-6, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 95)
36. Virginia Tech (9-4, 1-0 ACC, RPI: 64)
37. New Mexico State (10-3, 0-0 WAC, RPI: 73)
38. Fresno State (11-2, 0-0 WAC, RPI: 101)
39. Massachusetts (10-4, 0-0 A-10, RPI: 97)
40. Marist (10-4, 2-0 Metro Atlantic, RPI: 92)

* RPI courtesy kenpom.com (prior to games of 1/1). With the non-conference schedule now mostly complete, the RPI starts to become a more legitimate tool for judging the strength of at-large candidacies. The rankings are far from final, as teams from the better conferences will see their RPI rise as they play their conference schedules, while teams from lower-ranked conferences will see their RPI fall. Still, it's an additional piece of data to follow in determining a team's prospects for effing up my bracket.

** The magic ride for the Mountaineers continued with a three-point win at Virginia Commonwealth. Appalachian State was down 17 in the second half, then rallied behind junior forward Donte Minter, who scored 15 of his 25 points in the final 4:37. The Apps may well be 7-0 in the Southern when they head to Davidson on January 20.

Promoted out — None
Demoted in — Wichita State (Losing three games in eight days will do that to you. They'll be okay in the end, though.)
Teams added — Hofstra, Stanford, Wichita State
Teams dumped — Loyola Chicago, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth ***
The Others — (Sleepers receiving votes in the latest ESPN/USA TODAY poll): West Virginia (#26), Maryland (#27), Wichita State (#31), UNLV (#29), Washington State (#31), Drexel (#35-tie), Northern Iowa (#35-tie), Missouri State (#37), Winthrop (#40-tie)

*** Part of the rankings is a team's ability to get into the tournament. With Old Dominion's home loss to Winthrop and VCU's loss to Appalachian State, the Monarchs' and Rams' chances of at-large bids are close to none (unless they run the table in the Colonial, then fall in the conference tournament finals — an unlikely scenario).

So Hofstra, with wins over St. Joseph's and St. John's in their last two, and Stanford, with a win over Arizona State and "good loss" to Arizona, get in, and Old Dominion and VCU are sent packing. Temple is next if they don't watch out. Playing at Xavier in their next game after their recent loss to Duke probably won't help.

As for Marist, I just don't know. They have no shot at an at-large and are now a game behind Siena in the MAAC. It's just that with Jared Jordan, who had a triple-double in last night's loss to Loyola (MD), and Will Whittington, who scored 19, I think they could pull a miracle if they do get into the NCAA tournament. I'm leaving them on the Watch at #40. I just can't let go.

***

A dozen games involving sleeper teams to keep an eye on this week (all times EST):

Villanova at West Virginia, Wednesday, 7:30 PM
DePaul at St. John's, Wednesday, 7:30 PM
California at Stanford, Wednesday, 10 PM
Bradley at Wichita State, Thursday, 8:05 PM
Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa, Saturday, 1 PM (ESPNU)
UNLV at Air Force, Saturday, 3:30 PM
Akron at Ohio, Saturday, 7 PM
Western Kentucky at Nebraska, Saturday, 8 PM
Arizona at Washington State, Saturday, 10 PM
Kansas at South Carolina, Sunday, 4:30 PM (CBS)
Stanford at Virginia, Sunday, 5 PM
Wichita State at Missouri State, Sunday, 5:30 PM

Daily NCAA Reports, plus weekly updates to the Sleeper Watch, are available at The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 7:15 PM | Comments (4)

January 2, 2007

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Let's get this out of the way. I'm taking all the home teams next weekend.

* Top three announcers this season: Al Michaels, Troy Aikman, and Dick Vermeil.

* Super Bowl XLI: Ravens over Saints.

* In Week 17, Vinny Testaverde threw a touchdown pass to Troy Brown. Their combined age is 78.

* Home teams only went 136-120 this season, a .531 winning percentage. That wouldn't even make the playoffs in the AFC.

***

This is an NFL column, but if you have any affection for the game of football, or even drama in general, I hope you caught last night's Fiesta Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and the Oklahoma Sooners. Like most fans, I was pulling for the Broncos to pull off the upset. The official line was 7 or 7.5, depending on where you went, but this was a much bigger upset than that line would indicate. For a team from a non-BCS conference to beat a Big 12 champion with Oklahoma's tradition had no precedent.

This rivaled and probably even surpassed last year's Rose Bowl in excitement. With under three minutes remaining, Oklahoma drove down the field for a touchdown, then — after two tries aborted by penalty — made a two-point conversion to tie the game. On the next play from scrimmage, the Sooners returned an interception for a touchdown, and the game — which looked like Boise State's two minutes earlier — appeared over.

The Broncos, however, tied the game, with a perfectly executed hook-and-ladder on 4th-and-18. The Sooners scored on the first play of overtime, a 25-yard run by Adrian Peterson. Boise State answered with another fourth-down TD, followed by a successful two-point conversion to win the game. It was one of the most amazing conclusions to a football game that I have ever seen. Congratulations to Boise State, and to Oklahoma, too.

And now on to the last NFL power rankings of the season. Rankings are for right now, year-end strength, and may not reflect a team's performance over the entire season. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Baltimore Ravens [2] — I'll draw some fire for moving them ahead of the Chargers, but this is the NFL's most dominant team right now. The Ravens are beating good teams and pounding bad ones, and no one is scoring against that defense. Baltimore has gone seven games without allowing more than 17 points. We were all horrified at the way the Titans treated Steve McNair last summer, but if he finally wins a Super Bowl as a result, that might take the sting off.

2. San Diego Chargers [1] — You can't accuse a team that's won ten in a row of backing into the playoffs, but they may be backing into the top seed. San Diego has slowed down the last two weeks, just squeaking by the Seahawks and Cardinals. Philip Rivers finished the season with a progressively lower passer rating every month, and the Chargers won't be able to beat Baltimore with a one-dimensional offense.

3. New Orleans Saints [3] — No one wants their best players to get injured, but I question the wisdom of resting players the week before a bye. Two weeks is plenty of time to get rusty, and Sean Payton's staff will have its hands full preparing for the Eagles. I'm not sure why I've picked the Saints to beat them, in fact.

4. Philadelphia Eagles [4] — On the off chance that Philadelphia wins the Super Bowl, I think this team has a legitimate quarterback controversy on its hands. Donovan McNabb seems to have trouble staying healthy, and he's struggled under pressure. Jeff Garcia is too old to build around, but the team probably has another run or two in it after this season, and Garcia might give the Eagles the best chance to win. I know McNabb's the guy, but Andy Reid could be in an awkward position if Garcia plays well this postseason. I think Philadelphia beats the Giants by at least two touchdowns.

5. New England Patriots [5] — Sacked Vince Young a career-high five times and intercepted him twice. The defense is rolling, and the overachieving Patriots could be very dangerous this postseason. The Jets won their last game at New England, though, and I am a little nervous about picking the Pats to win on Sunday. I'll say New England by a touchdown.

6. Chicago Bears [6] — When was the last time they looked really impressive? Rex Grossman is shakier than ever, and he clearly doesn't have the confidence you want from a playoff quarterback. Even if the Bears rise up and win a game or two in the postseason, there's no way they can string together three straight wins against good teams.

7. New York Jets [10] — Two years ago, they went on the road and upset San Diego in the playoffs, making me and Peter King look stupid. The Jets aren't the rags-to-riches miracle that the Saints are, or that some people have been making the Jets out to be. But they have overcome an injury-prone QB who looked finished after last season. They've gotten by without much of an identity in the running game. And they've been effective on defense in their first year running a 3-4. My Coach of the Year nod goes to Payton, but credit is due here, too.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [14] — Won four of their last five, and six of the last eight, to finish .500. In fact, the Steelers haven't lost to anyone but Baltimore since Week 9. Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in interceptions this season, throwing more (23) than in his first two years combined (20). Big Ben also took twice as many sacks as last season and had the lowest passer rating of his career by 23.7. If Roethlisberger can recover his old form and consistency, Pittsburgh should be a Super Bowl favorite next season.

9. Tennessee Titans [7] — Here's why they're ranked ahead of Indianapolis. The Titans have won six of their last seven games. The Colts have won three of their last seven. Two weeks ago, the Titans beat Jacksonville by seven. Three weeks ago, the Colts lost to Jacksonville by 27. And the week before that, Tennessee beat Indianapolis head-to-head. The Titans are a hip pick for next season, but Young needs to improve his passing accuracy, and it will hurt if they lose Norm Chow.

10. Indianapolis Colts [13] — Kansas City is a terrible first-round matchup for them, and Larry Johnson will probably rush for about 150 yards, but Indianapolis was one of two teams to go undefeated at home this season (San Diego was the other), and I'll take the Colts to win a shootout on Saturday.

11. Buffalo Bills [8] — Made some real progress this year, especially with their passing game. J.P. Losman looks like a viable starting quarterback, and Lee Evans like a legit star. Injuries hurt the defense, but there's a very good group in place, and the Bills could really go places in 2007. Offensive line, receivers, and defensive depth will probably be the priorities this offseason.

12. Kansas City Chiefs [16] — The weakest team in the AFC playoffs, and there's a lot working against them. The Chiefs won twice as many games at home as on the road, but they have to travel to Indianapolis, where the Colts went 8-0, for their wildcard game. Kansas City went 4-0 this season against NFC teams, 4-2 against AFC West teams, and 1-5 against the rest of the conference.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars [9] — Quinn Gray nearly led the Jags to a comeback victory against Kansas City. Say hello to a three-way quarterback controversy.

14. Cincinnati Bengals [11] — That back-and-forth loss in Pittsburgh was an appropriate finish to their up-and-down season. Cincinnati had two win streaks of three games or more and two losing streaks of three games or more. Carson Palmer struggled in the last month of the season, and it really hurt them. Palmer's recovery from offseason surgery was impressive, but maybe the 16-game season just wore him down.

15. New York Giants [18] — Tiki Barber is going out in style. Barber pretty much single-handedly beat Washington on Saturday night, rushing for a team-record 234 yards, scoring three touchdowns, and leading the team in receptions. Barber did the same thing last season, rushing for over 200 yards in two of the last three weeks, to help the Giants make the playoffs.

16. Miami Dolphins [17] — Finished 6-10, losing four of their last five, but those losses were to two playoff teams, plus the Jaguars and the streaking Bills, both of whom barely missed qualifying for the postseason. If Jason Taylor elects not to retire, the Dolphins have a lot of talent in place, and they might make a serious postseason run next year if Daunte Culpepper plays well.

17. Seattle Seahawks [19] — Lost three of their last four and haven't beaten a playoff team since Week 3, but they're decent at home and the Cowboys are in a tailspin, so I'm taking the Seahawks. Let's say by four.

18. Dallas Cowboys [12] — No team limped into the playoffs like Dallas. When the Cowboys were hot, Tony Romo was tearing the league apart and the defense was shutting people down. Now Romo is struggling and the defense is a wreck, allowing at least 20 points in each of the last five games.

19. Denver Broncos [15] — The shooting death of Darrent Williams, who was just 24, is the most shocking event in the NFL this season. I don't know what else to say.

20. Green Bay Packers [24] — Four straight wins, and they should probably be ranked higher, but those wins came against a a trio of chumps and a Bears team with nothing to play for. Despite his emotion on Sunday, I don't expect Brett Favre to retire this year. Going out with a New Year's Eve win against his biggest rival would be a storybook way for Favre to leave the game, and I hope he does retire, but I don't think he can walk away.

21. St. Louis Rams [23] — Paul Brown, the father of the modern NFL game, once said, "When you've got the biggest cannon, you shoot it." Steven Jackson is a big cannon, and on Sunday, Scott Linehan used him in every phase of the game. Jackson had three rushing TDs, a receiving TD, and a 58-yard kickoff return. It's still a stretch to compare Jackson with Marshall Faulk, but he's playing a similar role.

22. Arizona Cardinals [22] — I understand why they fired Dennis Green, and this organization has certainly made worse decisions, but I would have given him another year. The Cardinals have a lot of young talent that's finally starting to come together, and Green didn't get much time to work with that, but Arizona went 4-4 after the bye this year. I do like the team's list of potential replacements for Green, any of whom could probably help this team continue the upward trend it seems to be on.

23. Carolina Panthers [25] — Clearly a different team when Jake Delhomme is playing, but it's hard to get excited about a victory over a team playing its backups. That does give them a leg up on the Falcons, though.

24. Atlanta Falcons [20] — Only two coaches got the axe on Monday, but one of them went 26-22 in three seasons. Longtime readers know that I've never thought highly of Jim Mora, Jr., and advocated his dismissal as early as last season. There's a lot of talent here, so expect the Falcons to improve under a new coaching staff. It will be interesting to see what the team does with talented backup QB Matt Schaub this offseason.

25. Washington Redskins [21] — I don't know if it's too many cooks in the kitchen, or something as simple as bad quarterback play, or just bad luck, but I don't know if any team— and this includes Carolina — underachieved so dramatically this season. If Joe Gibbs comes back and Jason Campbell gets a full offseason of reps with the first team, Washington could be a force in 2007.

26. Houston Texans [29] — Had no running game this year, but next season, Domanick Williams — the artist formerly known as Domanick Davis — should be back. In addition to changing his name, Williams is also changing his uniform number and apparently has a new haircut. Seriously.

27. San Francisco 49ers [30] — What a game by Walt Harris, who had two interceptions and a fumble recovery against Denver. The 49ers made real progress this season, and if the cards fall right, they could contend for the NFC West next year.

28. Detroit Lions [31] — Give Rod Marinelli credit. The Lions played with a lot of heart on Sunday, and they were fired up to the end. Did you see Detroit's sideline when the game was over? Everyone was jumping and cheering. It's a step in the right direction, getting players who are used to losing to start caring about winning again.

29. Minnesota Vikings [27] — With all the talent here, it is amazing that the Vikings went 6-10. A new quarterback could go a long way towards addressing their problems, but Minnesota also needs to address its pass defense, which tied for the worst in the NFL. If the Vikings can find a QB in free agency, they might want to use their first draft pick on a pass rusher.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [28] — Lost at least three games in a row three separate times this season. A year after winning the NFC South, Tampa went 0-6 in the division and 4-12 overall. If Jon Gruden doesn't get things turned around next season, he'll probably be coaching somewhere else in 2008.

31. Cleveland Browns [26] — It seems very unlikely that Brady Quinn will still be available when Cleveland drafts this April, but Charlie Frye really didn't play well this season, and the Browns should consider using Frye as a good backup rather than a bad starter. They may be in a position to draft Quinn, or to trade up and get him.

32. Oakland Raiders [32] — Warren Sapp had double-digit sacks for the first time since 2000, when he was named Defensive Player of the Year. Sapp should probably win Comeback Player of the Year this season, and if he miraculously does, remember that you read it here first. The Raiders have the top pick in April's draft, and while they could really use a quarterback, there are other positions they really need to address. I'd try to trade down.

The All-Loser Team

Finally, an annual tradition at Sports Central, the All-Loser Team is an all-star team comprised entirely of players whose teams missed the playoffs. Please check back tomorrow for my actual all-pro team.

QB Carson Palmer, CIN
RB Frank Gore, SF
FB Dan Kreider, PIT
WR Roy Williams, DET
WR Steve Smith, CAR
TE Kellen Winslow, Jr., CLE
C Brad Meester, JAC
G Alan Faneca, PIT
G Ben Hamilton, DEN
OT Willie Anderson, CIN
OT Chad Clifton, GB

DT Pat Williams, MIN
DT Warren Sapp, OAK
DE Jason Taylor, MIA
DE Aaron Kampman, GB
OLB Clark Haggans, PIT
OLB Keith Bulluck, TEN
ILB Zach Thomas, MIA
CB Champ Bailey, DEN
CB Rashean Mathis, JAC
FS John Lynch, DEN
SS Adrian Wilson, ARI

K John Kasay, CAR
P Brian Moorman, BUF
KR Pacman Jones, TEN

Honorable Mentions: Steven Jackson (RB, STL); Lee Evans (WR, BUF); Donald Driver (WR, GB); Kevin Williams (DT, MIN); Aaron Schobel (DE, BUF); Derrick Burgess (DE, OAK)

Happy New Year, everyone. I hope you enjoy the upcoming all-pro column and next weekend's playoff games.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:59 PM | Comments (3)

Adventures of the Mustached Man

When you are drafted third overall solely based on your ability to shoot the lights out, you'd think that you would be able to do just that. Adam Morrison, however, has proven to be one of the most inconsistent shooters in the NBA thus far in his rookie year.

While other rookies have certainly not been ripping it up on the court, they also haven't been ripping up chances for their teams to make the playoffs. Morrison, because of the fact that he's been playing the most minutes of all the rookies (33 mpg), has had the most impact on his team's performance on the court. While he leads the rookie class in scoring per game, he is far from efficient when compared to other rookie young guns that have seen consistent minutes on the court, such as Brandon Roy or Jorge Garbajosa (taking the term "young guns" very loosely).

Brandon Roy has been shooting almost 42% from the field while playing a very similar role to that of Morrison — scoring. Garbajosa has also been relied on for shots aplenty, hitting just under 44%. Morrison, on the other hand, is chucking up 14 shots per game at a much less effective rate, making less than 37% of his shots.

The Charlotte Bobcats are a team that is struggling to score. They are ranked 23rd in the league with just over 94 points per game while shooting a league-worst 43% from the field. Morrison is the worst offender of the Bobcats' starters and has, arguably, the worst shot selection in the entire league for players who take over 10 shots per game.

The fact is this: Morrison is a great shooter who can get hot at any time, but when he's not hitting his shots, he simply doesn't let up. He's a trigger-happy three-ball launcher who satisfies his itch to shoot much more often than he satisfies the scoreboard. His games can be downright decent. I was going to say "spectacular," but he's only had three games where he has shot over 50%. Looking at his stat line can be confusing. One night he's the second coming of Larry Bird and the next he's Antoine Walker's apprentice.

Morrison has had five one-for games in the month of December. Four of them were in a row. The lines read this: 1-for-5, 1-for-10, 1-for-11, 1-for-8, and most recently, 1-for-15. His team was able to win, however, two of those games. Morrison's backup, Matt Carroll, saved the team from the 1-for-5 performance against Detroit, in which Morrison was limited to 19 minutes, and then rescued the Bobcats again in a triple overtime thriller against the Lakers with 27 points, where Carroll was used in overtime rather than the rookie "shooting specialist."

While at Gonzaga, the mustached man was launching even more shots than he is in the NBA, with 17 shots per contest. The difference, however, was that he was shooting 49.7%. He never had a single game in his college career where he only made one shot, a feat that he has unfortunately accomplished so many times in the NBA that he can almost trademark the term "one-for" or even tattoo it on his bicep.

Ammo, as he was known in college, would be better off if he ran out of ammo, and so would the Bobcats, who have won the only two games where Morrison was held to six shots or less.

The league would love to see the old Adam Morrison that was put on display night in and night out at Gonzaga. The man proved himself at that level, however, he has yet to do so in the NBA. With longer and quicker defenders, many questioned if Morrison would be able to adjust. The Bobcats believed he could and have seen flashes of brilliance. The brilliance, however, has been dimmed by shooting slumps galore.

If Morrison wants to survive in this league, he has to prove himself to be a little more efficient with a much less flamboyant shot-selection. He has to find his role on the team and fit it. He needs to settle for his shots rather than force his shots. Morrison needs to adjust his college game to the NBA to really make it work. All of this is very possible with a player that is as gifted as Adam Morrison is, but he'll have to work hard to make it happen.

And maybe he could shave his mustache, too.

Posted by Chad Kettner at 6:45 PM | Comments (0)

January 1, 2007

2007 NFL Mock Draft: First Look

Divining which coed upstart will be the next BMOC in the pros has never been an exact science. If the legendary Mel Kiper, Jr. (of ESPN's draft coverage fame) himself does not know with absolution who will be drafted and where, then who am I to deign my predications any more astute? In addition to that, it's barely 2007 and the draft order is far from being finalized, further clouding the picture that won't even be clear at the 11th hour leading up to the draft itself.

Still, a high failure rate has never stopped the Chris Mortensons of the world from exhorting their own best guess scenarios unto the public. I am no different in the fact that I also want to be heard and hope to be recognized as a prognosticator extraordinaire. Diehard draftniks like myself are, if nothing else, resolute in the belief that we have sort of a sixth sense for this stuff.

To that end, you can rest assured knowing that my own theories are based on at least a modicum of inside information combined with a bevy of in-depth and detailed analysis and an understanding of the essential concept of recognizing perceived needs for each NFL team. In other words, this is one of the few cases where I feel I am qualified in saying that your guess may not be as good as mine, though I'm sure several of you out there will fire back with your own points of view, each of those carrying a valuable amount of insight to us all.

The selection order is based on the NFL standings as of December 22nd, 2006 (so please don't waste your time composing a paragraph-long diatribe assuring us that the Titans are playoff-bound). As schedule and free space on this site permits, I hope to provide semi-regular updates throughout the remainder of the NFL season and into the offseason, but of course my editor has more to say about this than do I.

1. Detroit Lions: BRADY QUINN, QB (Notre Dame) — If there is a football-god looking over the sport, Matt Millen will have absolutely nothing to do with this pick. Quinn is the no-brainer selection for this quarterback-starved Motor City franchise. He'll likely serve as Jon Kitna's caddy for the entirely of the '07 season, but Brady will be the man in Detroit for years to come after that.

2. Oakland Raiders: JOE THOMAS, OT (Wisconsin) — Joe Thomas is a mountain of a man and a proven commodity as a multiple-year all-conference selection at Wisconsin. The Raiders need a show-stopping offensive left tackle so they can anchor the to-this-point disappointing Robert Gallery on his more natural right side. Thomas fits that bill perfectly. While the temptation to grab an Adrian Peterson here may be too large to overcome, Thomas makes the best sense and would make the most difference.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: *ALAN BRANCH, DT (Michigan) — If Branch does decide to give up his final season of college eligibility, he'll likely be the number one defender to come off the board. The Bucs are desperate for an anchor to their defense, and Branch could be that guy. If Gruden decides to go offense early in the '07 draft, than Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson will be his choice, but don't expect that outcome as Tampa needs to start revamping their aging defense.

4. Arizona Cardinals: GAINES ADAMS, DE (Clemson) — For my money, the 6'4", 260-pound Adams is the top player on the 2007 draft board. His size-to-speed combination is a plus, but his instincts are what set him apart from his peers. While the Cardinals would have loved for Joe Thomas to fall to them here, they will be satisfied selecting Adams and filling their second most pressing team need (behind their offensive line weakness).

5. Cleveland Browns: *ADRIAN PETERSON, RB (Oklahoma) — This is the point in the draft where things start to get interesting. Cleveland, Houston, and Minnesota would all love to snag Peterson, and Arizona (picks at No. 4) may be willing to trade out of that slot if Joe Thomas is no longer on the board, giving both Houston and Minnesota (as well as Green Bay, who picks in the No. 12 slot) a potential partner in trumping the Browns for the dynamic Sooner's services. Recent history has shown that draft-day trades in the top 10 are fewer and further between than ever before, so I would bet on Peterson still being available when Cleveland is on the clock.

6. Houston Texans: *BRIAN BROHM, QB (Louisville) — David Carr's days in Texas are numbered (as of writing of this article, that number would be two) and Sage Rosenfels is little more than an adequate fill-in, so Houston will be selecting a QB sometime during the draft's first day to groom as the eventual long-term solution. Brohm really does provide the most upside — he has poise, a strong-arm, effective mobility, and has proven to be an effective leader as a collegiate signal-caller. While undoubtedly the Texan brain-trust would prefer to waste this pick on a defensive liability, the public outcry for the team to at least pretend they care about the fans' opinions will push them towards the selection of a higher-profile position player. Anything could happen ... however, this is the team that passed on both Reggie Bush and Vince Young.

7. Washington Redskins: *CALVIN JOHNSON, WR (Georgia Tech) — Forgive the visual, but Coach Joe Gibbs will be wetting himself all the way to the podium if Johnson falls into his lap as this mock draft portends. Johnson is a franchise-type of wide receiver. He's built like Terrell Owens, only faster and has the hands of Jerry Rice, only bigger. If the Redskin brass could hand-pick any one player who would fit their system perfectly, it would be this oversized Yellow Jacket receiver.

8. St. Louis Rams: TONY UGOH, OT (Arkansas) — With Orlando Pace beginning to slip a bit, St. Louis will soon find themselves in the unenviable position of having to replace one of the game's all-time greats. While most of you likely haven't heard of Tony Ugoh, you will come March and April. Ugoh is a road-grading prospect at tackle whose stock has sky-rocketed since the college football season began. Because of his quickness and vision as a run-blocker, Ugoh may well be able to slide into a guard spot, at least part-time, until Pace hands up his cleats for good. This would be a solid pick for the Rams, who also need help at defensive back and defensive end.

9. Minnesota Vikings: *JaMARCUS RUSSELL, QB (LSU) — Of all the underclassmen on this list to this point, Russell is the one that may not opt for the pros quite yet. While he is still a bit raw in his ability to read defenses, Russell has the strongest arm in college football and delivers when it matters, two traits that can't be taught. He makes a lot of sense for the Vikings here, as he should be able to step in and start immediately since durability won't be a concern (6'6", 240 pounds) and he has been a two-year starter in a pro-style offense against top-tier competition (coincidentally, that last item is something he won't be facing in the NFC's North division).

10. San Francisco 49ers: *DWAYNE JARRETT, WR (USC) — Jarrett would give the 49ers the deep receiving threat they so desperately need. That he played his college ball in southern California won't hurt his case, either. Jarrett is big (6'5") and has a knack for making tough catches in traffic. When paired with WR Antonio Bryant, TE Vernon Davis, and Pro Bowl RB Frank Gore, he could give the Niners a very formidable offensive attack.

11. Carolina Panthers: LARON LANDRY, S (LSU) — Landry has been one of the more consistent producers in college football over the past three seasons. He would be a nice fit for a team that needs a sure-tackler roaming the last line of defense in the secondary.

12. Green Bay Packers: *MARSHAWN LYNCH, RB (California) — Lynch is an interesting case ... as a running back, he may be coveted by a team picking lower in the draft, which would mean some team trading up to the No. 8 or 9 spot to grab him. Additionally, a team like St. Louis or Minnesota may look at Lynch as a good complimentary guy to have, which again would limit his availability to a team like the Packers, who would absolutely love to have a shot at drafting such a player. But, to Green Bay's delight, it does appear that the draft board will play very well towards teams filling their needs in their respective draft slots, which would keep Lynch on the board through the top 10. The consistent Lynch would fit nicely into the Packers' future plans and would give the team the every-down threat they long for.

13. Miami Dolphins: PATRICK WILLIS, LB (Ole Miss) — Coach Nick Saban knows his SEC players well, and it is no secret that the best linebacker in the SEC has been Patrick Willis over the past two seasons. Willis has good enough speed to play any of the 'backer spots, he is a strong character guy with instincts that will allow him to absorb complex defensive schemes (Miami has no shortage of those, and he is a sure-tackler, which is something Saban demands of his players. Only JaMarcus Russell (a Saban recruit at LSU) could lure the 'Fins away from Willis, and he figures to be long gone by pick No. 13.

14. Atlanta Falcons: *REGGIE NELSON, S (Florida) — A natural playmaker, Nelson would give the Falcons a dynamic young secondary that includes DeAngelo Hall and Jimmy Williams, first round draft picks from the previous two seasons. Reggie made big play after big play for the second-ranked Florida Gators in '06 and his knack for the ball would make him an immediate contributor on special teams and in specialty defensive alignments.

15. Kansas City Chiefs: LEVI BROWN, OT (Penn State) — Brown makes sense here for a team with an obvious weakness at both tackle positions. While he is no Willie Roaf, Levi has the potential to develop into a solid player at either tackle position.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers: LEON HALL, CB (Michigan) — For Hall to fall out of the top 15, the board would need to develop pretty much just as I show it to here. San Francisco, Carolina, Green Bay, and Miami all would snatch him up if one of the other players they covet somehow came off the board earlier than anticipated. Hall is a good tackler and a solid man-on-man coverage guy, two abilities that Coach Bill Cowher loves in his corners.

17. New York Giants: KENNY IRONS, RB (Auburn) — The G-Men will have a glaring need for a speedier counterpart to Brandon Jacobs after Tiki Barber officially retires, and Irons is a near Barber clone. While New York could likely trade down a few spots and still get the Auburn star, Irons is well worth this pick and certainly wouldn't hurt in filling the role that Coach Tom Coughlin will be sorely lacking in '07.

18. Buffalo Bills: BEN GRUBBS, OG (Auburn) — Grubbs is versatile, which is what will set him apart from USC's Ryan Kalil (center) as Buffalo looks to fill its gaping hole in their interior offensive line. His athleticism suits the Bills' misdirection-based running game to a tee.

19. Tennessee Titans: QUENTIN MOSES, DE (Georgia) — Moses is a bit of an enigma, which is why he falls this far, as he is a top-10 type of talent. More of a pass-rush specialist, he fits in nicely with what the Titans currently have on defense at the position and his upside is tremendous if he manages to bulk up and develop a better nose for stopping the run.

20. New England Patriots (via Seattle): LaMARR WOODLEY, DE/LB (Michigan) — A natural fit for Bill Belichick's 3-4/4-3 hybrid scheme, Woodley has the speed, power, and nastiness to make a difference from different spots on the field. Very similar to ex-Steeler great Greg Lloyd in stature and constitution, Woodley would give attitude to a defense that thrives off each other's collective energies.

21. New York Jets: DeMARCUS TYLER, DT (NC State) — "Tank," as they call him, would be an ideal choice for the Jets, as he's a playmaker in the middle of the defensive line and he would allow the team to off-load Dewayne Robertson, who has never developed into the dominating force that they had hoped for. There is a chance Louisville's Amobi Okoye slides up the draft chart, in which case the Jets would take the Cardinal tackle over Tyler, but for now, DeMarcus is the guy.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: JEFF SAMARDZIJA, WR (Notre Dame) — It remains to be seen if Samardzija chooses pro baseball over pro football or, worse, sticks to his current plans of playing both professionally, but if he shows a commitment to the NFL, the Eagles would love to make him their go-to receiver. At 6'5" and with exceptional hands and speed, the Golden Domer would make a formidable target for Donovan McNabb and a great compliment to Donte Stallworth.

23. Denver Broncos: MICHAEL BUSH, RB (Louisville) — Bush is a truck-load of football player and would give Coach Mike Shanahan an interesting option in the backfield. While it is unlike the Broncos brass to pick a running back this high in the draft, Bush is worth the investment if he proves his health in the offseason workouts.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: TROY SMITH, QB (Ohio State) — With Byron Leftwich clearly on the way out, Jacksonville will need a quarterback to develop behind David Garrard, who has shown that he may be a fine stop-gap solution, but is far from being the long-term answer at that position. Who better to fit that bill than the Heisman Trophy-winning Buckeye with a penchant for making big plays in the biggest games? While Smith is undersized (I'm sure we'll hear all about that in the days and weeks leading up to the draft), he has the skills to play the position in the NFL, regardless of what the experts may say (see Drew Brees).

25. Cincinnati Bengals: AMOBI OKOYE, DT (Louisville) — Okoye would be a steal at this spot. He is a rare talent in that he plays faster than his size (6'2", 300 pounds), but also plays bigger. If Okoye outperforms DeMarcus Tyler in offseason workouts, look for the Jets to take Amobi and the Bengals will settle for Tyler, but at this point, Tyler gets the higher ranking of the two leaving Cincy with the talented Okoye.

26. Dallas Cowboys: MARCUS McCAULEY, CB (Fresno State) — McCauley will shoot up draft boards once the all-star circuits get underway and his skills are showcased against some of the nation's top receivers. That said, cornerbacks aren't a top priority for most teams around the league, as the "have nots" have many more pressing needs and the "haves" needn't waste picks for depth alone. This suits the Cowboys just fine, who would pick up an excellent compliment to play alongside Terrence Newman and replace an overpaid Anthony Henry in McCauley, should he be available.

27. New Orleans Saints: *DARRELLE REVIS, CB (Pittsburgh) — The Saints are set on offense and are comfortable with their defensive line. This leaves linebacker and secondary as their primary points of concern, and the value pick here is Revis, who was brilliant at times in Pittsburgh's secondary. Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny is an intriguing option here, but Revis has a higher upside and should be the choice.

28. New England Patriots: DAYMEION HUGHES, CB (California) — New England would love to have Hughes, a 6'0" corner, fall to them with their second pick in the first round. He fits a need and fits the profile of a Bill Belichick kind of player in that he's big enough and quick enough to play man coverage or drop back as an extra safety in specialty defensive situations, which the Patriots employ often. Hughes would be a great pick here.

29. Baltimore Ravens: RYAN KALIL, C (USC) — Kalil has the size (6'3", 292 pounds) to slide to the guard slot, but he may well replace Mike Flynn as the team's center if he is in fact their selection. Kalil is a study in consistency and provides the intelligence, instincts, and technique to be a Pro Bowl-level player in the NFL. With the Ravens being set along the defensive line and in the defensive backfield (which is where the strength of this draft is, especially late in the first round), this pick makes sense.

30. Indianapolis Colts: QUINN PITCOCK, DT (Ohio State) — What does the team that has everything except an ability to control an opponent's running game need? The nation's premier run-stopping defensive tackle. Penn State's Posluszny may fit in here, as well, but Pitcock is a good start and they can work on their linebacking deficiencies later in the draft.

31. Chicago Bears: *ROBERT MEACHAM, WR (Tennessee) — The acrobatic Meacham is a good fit for the Bears and their here today, gone tomorrow offense and would be a nice weapon to have opposite the solid-but-unspectacular Muhsin Muhammad. With good size, decent speed, and fantastic hands, the Volunteer wideout could help stabilize a very unstable offense.

32. San Diego Chargers: DWAYNE BOWE, WR (LSU) — The Chargers need one thing and one thing only, consistency from the receiver spot. Dwayne Bowe is big and tough and would provide a very nice option to Phillip Rivers over the middle to go with TE Antonio Gates, who is more effective moving upfield anyway. An addition like Bowe would make this offense even more scary than they already are.

There you have it ... my first mock draft installment profiling the 2007 NFL draft.

The BetFirms mock draft is the first step towards preparing to help you beat the NFL odds this fall.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 7:38 PM | Comments (38)

Crimson Tide Once Proud, Now Forgettable?

When the hours ticked away on the almost annual occasion of The Day the BCS Went to Hell and Back (alias December 2), I decided to peruse some Big Ten and SEC message boards, to see what kind of lobbying was going on with Florida fans, Michigan fans, and the fans of the two conferences.

The results of the not-so-scientific experiment were exactly as you would think: SEC fans stating, "We've seen that game. Ohio State won." The Big Ten fans would confidently say, "Who cares if the two best teams in the country are in the same conference and played each other?"

Every once in a while, an opposing conference fan would join the fray.

They might as well have been suggesting Green Party policies at a county Republican Party convention.

The content of the two factions was not surprising in the least bit. What was surprising was a line I saw on an SEC board, between the chatter, in a poster's signature.

"Alabama Basketball: Outperforming Alabama Football Since 2003."

It's not like that statement is some ludicrous statement at all. In fact, it would be far more ludicrous to suggest the reverse to be true. It's just that it doesn't look right. At all.

Imagine the following words in 25 years: "North Carolina Football: Outperforming North Carolina Basketball Since 2028."

You can't. It just doesn't make sense.

And let's just say that you still believe Alabama is an elite college football program just going through a little lull. If a lull is 10 seasons, I'll be willing to give you that.

Since 1996, when coach Gene Stallings retired, Alabama is 67-55. The Tide's two main rivals, Auburn and Tennessee, have gone 83-40 and 94-31 in the same time span. Alabama is also 3-7 against their arch-rival Tigers and 2-8 when facing the Volunteers in the same time span.

Tide fans will point to the three 10-win seasons post-Stallings as evidence that their program can still compete at a high level in the SEC.

However, if the three seasons are taken away from the last 10 years, you are left with a less than pedestrian 37-47 record. The elite teams in any conference simply don't fare that poorly in less-than-hallmark years. And elite teams surely don't have three non-winning seasons in four years, as 'Bama has done.

But yet, Alabama is still, undoubtedly, one of the most tradition-rich programs in the country. Even Auburn and Tennessee fans would have to reluctantly admit that fact, and that the whole sport of college football, much less the SEC, is better with Alabama in prominence.

Meanwhile, the tradition that Alabama possesses is not resonating with the players who could turn the Crimson Tide back into a national powerhouse.

According to Rivals.com, Alabama has the No. 22 recruiting class in the nation for 2007. That's not bad considering that most power-conference recruits have already verbally committed. What is bad for their recruiting is that seven SEC programs have incoming classes that rank in the top 15, five in the top 10, and three in the top five.

In addition, every day that goes by with Alabama having not named a coach to replace Mike Shula makes it more likely that some of their 14 recruits will back out of their verbal commitments and go elsewhere.

It goes without saying that the Tide need to hire someone to lead the most successful SEC program in history sooner rather than later. But Alabama also needs a coach that can turn around the school's fortunes immediately, make losing the seasons forgettable history, get the big recruits, and then consistently win a number of games in the SEC every year.

The biggest factor for a potential Alabama coach is that he has to be able to not allow the immense pressure that comes with coaching in Tuscaloosa to get to him.

One coach who could do that is the Miami Dolphins' Nick Saban, who turned around programs at Michigan State and LSU, who each were in similar positions that Alabama is currently when Saban took over. Saban has been linked with Alabama for weeks now, but has said previously, "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach."

Speculation is still rife, however, that Alabama is basically prepared to write a blank check for Saban, possibly offering more that the $5 million per year Saban currently receives from the Dolphins.

The presumed frontrunner, should Saban stay true to his word, is likely Wake Forest's Jim Grobe. The Deamon Deacons coach could likely make a solid group out of the players currently at 'Bama, as he led a group of unheralded players to a 10-2 record and an Orange Bowl berth. However, he's never even touched a job with quite the amount of expectations and pressure that Alabama puts on a coach.

Another coach who is a possibility for the job is Navy's Paul Johnson. Johnson has won national championships at the Division I-AA level, and has taken Navy to four straight bowl games, something that is not too easy to do with a service academy in this day and age of college football, and with an old-school triple-option offense, something that may be even harder.

No matter whom the coach may become at the university known as The Capstone in the state of Alabama, there is still the potential, money, and the incredible fan support for the program to return to a top college football program.

After all, it just doesn't look right for Alabama football to be bad. At all.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:18 PM | Comments (0)