NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* I know you've heard a ton about Lamar Hunt already, and I mentioned him just three weeks ago, but you could reasonably argue that no one has had a greater influence on the NFL. If you like this league, Hunt is one of the first people you have to thank for it. Hunt is a member of eight different Halls of Fame (including the one in Canton, of course).

* Isiah Thomas was an overrated, ill-mannered player as a member of the Bad Boy Pistons. Why should anyone expect him to be different after his playing career? Now he's an overrated, classless coach.

* Pro Bowl teams will be announced today. Among the more interesting votes will be whether Shawne Merriman, who missed four games after testing positive for steroids, made the team. The bet here is yes.

* I think Pete Morelli needs to stop hitting the bottle before games. Did anyone else notice how much trouble he had with his penalty announcements on Thursday night?

* Apparently, John Madden hates Jeff Triplette, too. Maybe one day the NFL will get a clue and stop letting him ref games. Again. The league already had to relieve Triplette once, after he nearly blinded Orlando Brown by throwing a flag in his eye.

***

Power rankings mean different things to different people. This column's power rankings evaluate a team's current level of performance. Games played before the bye don't matter any more. Week 1 is ancient history.

For college football, in particular, power rankings frequently include the entire season. With over 100 schools, some teams play very different schedules from others. Ohio State and Florida, the two teams that will meet in the so-called national championship game, didn't have a single opponent in common this year. College football power rankings reflect a team's success against very different opponents, and on some level, they are essential to evaluating teams at all.

In the NFL, that's not the case. Some teams play harder schedules than others, but the difference between the Chargers and the Lions is tiny compared to the difference between OSU and say, Utah State. It would be a huge upset if San Diego lost to someone like the Lions, but it's inconceivable that Utah State could hang with the Buckeyes. Season-long power rankings in the NFL don't serve much purpose, basically reflecting a team's record and breaking the ties based on strength of schedule.

Ranking the teams based only on recent performance is hard sometimes. When a team like the Bills or Titans gets hot in the second half, my rankings look a lot different than those from someone who thinks of them as just another 7-7 team. But if you're looking for analysis on current performance, and which teams are playing the best right now, this is the place to be.

On to the power rankings, brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. San Diego Chargers [1] — Everyone knows about the amazing offense and the blitzing defense. How about a little love for special teams? In the first half of Sunday night's game, the Chargers had three big plays from their punting formation. First, they picked up a touchdown after Michael Turner ran for a first down on a fake punt. Then Mike Scifres pinned the Chiefs at their own 4-yard-line, and Kansas City's subsequent 61-yard drive didn't yield any points. After another punt downed inside the 10, Scifres had a kick blocked, but Derrick Ross touched the ball beyond the line of scrimmage, and San Diego's David Binn recovered it to give the Chargers a new set of downs. On the next play, LaDainian Tomlinson ran 85 yards for a touchdown. That made it 14-3, San Diego. The Chiefs never recovered.

2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — The defense has at least five sacks in four of the last five games. Their total over that span, 27, projects to an 86-sack season, which would destroy the record set by the 1984 Bears (72). The Ravens also boast the second-stingiest run defense in the NFL. If anyone can shut down the Chargers' electrifying offense, it's this team.

3. New Orleans Saints [4] — Don't deserve to be ranked third after their disappointing loss to Washington, but neither do the Cowboys, whom they routed in Week 14. Neither do the injury-plagued Bengals or Bears. I think the suspension of Hollis Thomas has really hurt New Orleans, which misses his presence in the middle of the defensive line. The Saints are giving up an average of 5.1 yards per carry this season, the worst average this side of the Colts. Remember when only bad teams had weak run defense?

4. Dallas Cowboys [5] — They've clinched a playoff berth, but not position. A loss in their Monday afternoon game against Philadelphia could put Dallas on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Even with a win, the Cowboys need New Orleans to lose if they want a first-round bye. Dallas will be dangerous in the postseason, but it's going to have a tough road to the Super Bowl.

5. Cincinnati Bengals [3] — We knew the Colts would probably score against them, but Cincinnati should have been able to keep up in a shootout. Already without left tackle Levi Jones, who hasn't played since Week 5, the Bengals lost Willie Anderson in the first half of Monday's game, and they got killed on the line. Under constant pressure, Carson Palmer completed only half his passes, and Rudi Johnson averaged less than four yards per carry against the league's worst run defense. Even though these are the Bengals, Jones and Anderson are injured, not in jail.

6. Chicago Bears [6] — That awesome defense is in a lot of trouble, as both starting defensive tackles are done for the season. Tommie Harris, one of the best defensive players in the NFL, is hurt. Tank Johnson was arrested for the third time in the last 18 months and reportedly is finished with this organization. The Bears have allowed 58 points in the two games since Harris was hurt, their highest two-game total this season. The 31 points given up against Tampa Bay matched a season-high for Chicago, but in the previous game, the Bears had six turnovers, leading to four touchdowns. Also, Tampa came into the game with the worst scoring offense in the NFL (11.6 ppg), and hadn't scored 30 points in a game all season. The Bears probably won't get lit up by Detroit or Green Bay, but if they have to face the Saints or Cowboys this postseason, that defense could have real problems.

7. New England Patriots [9] — Scored 40 points in a rout of the Texans, but all is not well with this offense. New England had just 15 first downs and 230 yards of offense. The Pats averaged under three yards per carry and just 4.5 per pass. Tom Brady has thrown for only 187 yards in his last two games combined. This is not a playoff offense. The Patriots can prove me wrong the next two weeks, with a pair of tough road games, but I just don't think they have the weapons to go on a strong playoff run right now.

8. Indianapolis Colts [10] — The run defense held up (for the most part) on Monday night, but it's clearly this team's Achilles' heel. Larry Tripplett left for Buffalo this offseason, but the Colts still had decent personnel. Then they lost Corey Simon for the season. Monte Reagor was in a car crash and hasn't played since. Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders has only played in four games. Without those injuries, the Colts are probably a top-three team.

9. Buffalo Bills [11] — In a game without a lot offense, J.P. Losman threw three touchdown passes to help his team knock the Dolphins out of playoff contention. Losman has played well since the bye, with a passer rating over 100 in the last two months. Steve Fairchild, who was offensive coordinator for the Rams from 2003-05, runs the offense, and his staff has done a nice job with Losman and Lee Evans.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars [7] — It's rare that you can pin a loss on one player, but David Garrard pretty much gave this one away, with an incredible three turnovers returned for touchdowns, plus the game-ending interception with under a minute left. If Garrard wants to prove that he should be Jacksonville's starting quarterback, he needs to play a lot better than he has the last two weeks.

11. Tennessee Titans [12] — Their 15:38 of offensive possession was the least by a winning team since time of possession became an official statistic. The Titans had under 100 yards of offense and made only five first downs. It seems like a lot of games have been won that way this year, but it's not a reliable formula for success.

12. Miami Dolphins [8] — Lost 21-0 a week after they won 21-0. Joey Harrington had a transcendently bad game, with a passer rating of zero when he was benched at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas both had good games on defense. Taylor had a sack and forced fumble, while Thomas led the team in tackles and forced two fumbles. The Dolphins need to get an offense here before Taylor and Thomas get too old to keep performing at this level.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers [14] — With the possible exception of Baltimore, no team has a hotter defense. The Steelers have held opponents to seven points or less in their last three games. Getting humiliated by the Ravens may have been the best thing to happen to this team all season, because it seems to have — finally — jolted Pittsburgh into playing to its potential. The Steelers don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs anymore, but they can still mess things up for the Ravens and Bengals. Black-and-gold fans could derive at least some satisfaction from that.

14. New York Jets [13] — Minnesota was a dream matchup. The Jets have a good passing game but can't run the ball well. Minnesota has the league's best rush defense, but can't stop the pass. Chad Pennington throws for 339 yards, Laveranues Coles catches 12 passes, Jets win.

15. Philadelphia Eagles [18] — I can admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong about the Eagles tanking after Donovan McNabb got hurt. I was not wrong, though, about Jeff Garcia, whom I've always liked. Both Brian Westbrook and Garcia played well against the Giants, but the real hero was Brian Dawkins, who had nine solo tackles, two pass deflections, an interception, and two forced fumbles.

16. New York Giants [15] — This is a pretty charitable ranking considering that they've lost five of the last six games. All of those losses, though, were to teams ranked above them, and most of them were competitive. The Giants still have the inside track to the NFC playoffs, but they'll have to win at least one — and possibly both — of their last two games, which won't be easy. The G-Men face New Orleans in Week 16, and travel to Washington in Week 17.

17. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — For most of this decade, Kansas City has had the best offensive line in the NFL. This season, they've given up 36 sacks, more than teams with notorious protections problems, such as the Bengals (34), Cardinals (32), and Cowboys (30). Eleven of those 36 sacks have come in the last two games, and both of the next two are against good defenses who will look to exploit the team's pass-blocking weaknesses.

18. Atlanta Falcons [19] — Not to say I told you so, but what on earth is Jim Mora, Jr., thinking? The Falcons had eight penalties on Saturday night, but I'm sure they weren't the least bit distracted by their coach saying he would pack his bags in the middle of a playoff run — to go coach a middle-tier college team.

19. Denver Broncos [21] — Jay Cutler had his first good game as a pro, throwing touchdown passes to Javon Walker and Rod Smith in Denver's victory over the Cardinals. Cutler's fellow rookie, Brandon Marshall, continues to be more involved in the game plan. I haven't seen a lot of Marshall yet, but Mike Shanahan likes this guy, and Marshall had that great catch-and-run against the Seahawks two weeks ago. If Cutler develops as a quarterback, Marshall is a player you'll probably hear about next season.

20. Seattle Seahawks [16] — Winning percentage was better with Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander out of the lineup (.667) than when they're both healthy (.545). The Seahawks will finish this season 3-3 in the NFC West, which is by far the NFL's weakest division. Seattle's .418 strength of schedule is the lowest in the NFL. Bryce Fisher has been playing really well on the defensive line.

21. Washington Redskins [26] — They have good games that fool you into believing they're a good team. Since I gave them a five-spot jump in the rankings, apparently I'm that fool. Ladell Betts is on fire, but Washington really beat New Orleans with defense. DE Andre Carter is having a huge second half of the season, and a healthy Shawn Springs changes the complexion of this defense.

22. Minnesota Vikings [22] — Everyone is talking about the Giants, the Falcons, even the 49ers for the last wildcard spot in the NFC. But if those teams lose at least one game each, and Minnesota beats the Packers and Rams in the next two weeks, the Vikings will make the postseason. Tarvaris Jackson replaces the shockingly ineffective Brad Johnson at quarterback, and that could be the difference in whether or not Minnesota reaches the playoffs.

23. Cleveland Browns [23] — Tied with Tampa Bay for the second-hardest strength of schedule to this point in the season, with opponents averaging a .566 winning percentage. The Browns are 4-10, with four losses in their last five games, but they've only lost to one team with a losing record (6-8 Carolina, way back in Week 5). Cleveland has easier games — against the Buccaneers and Texans — to close the season, but watch out if they lose another one. The 2007 Browns could be dangerous if they get another high draft pick.

24. Arizona Cardinals [24] — Matt Leinart made a rookie mistake on Sunday, throwing at Champ Bailey, and the Bronco DB responded with two interceptions. I've criticized Bailey in the past, and I think last year I even called him the most overrated player in the NFL, but not this season. Bailey has been incredible, and he should probably be named Defensive Player of the Year.

25. San Francisco 49ers [27] — Bryant Gumbel continues to struggle as a play-by-play announcer. On Thursday, he called Frank Gore "Al". Also, Gumbel and Cris Collinsworth need to get over their crush on Alex Smith. He had a nice fourth quarter, but the kid is no Joe Montana or Steve Young.

26. St. Louis Rams [28] — Won a battle between two very bad teams that used to play in Los Angeles. If you don't have L.A. connections, and you aren't a fan of the Rams or Raiders, the only conceivable reason to watch Sunday's game was to watch two very good defensive ends, the Rams' Leonard Little and Oakland's Derrick Burgess. Little had two sacks, while Burgess had one sack and tied for the team lead in tackles.

27. Green Bay Packers [25] — Two wins in a row, but don't lavish praise on Brett Favre yet. The Green Bay QB had three picks and no touchdowns against Detroit, but his defense bailed him out, with six sacks and four takeaways. The game will miss Favre when he finally retires, but it's tough to watch him struggling like this.

28. Carolina Panthers [20] — Chris Weinke hasn't played well, but Jake Delhomme is not worth 34 points. The Panthers have fallen apart, and they've fallen out of the playoff race by dropping four straight games, all against beatable, middle-of-the-pack teams. DE Mike Rucker tore his ACL against Pittsburgh and will miss the last two games, which pretty much seals Carolina to finish 6-10. The team has dramatically underperformed this year, and if the Panthers don't turn things around next season, John Fox will be coaching somewhere else in 2008.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [30] — The Bruce Gradkowski experiment is over. Tim Rattay will start at quarterback in Week 16, and unless the Bucs send him to NFL Europe, Gradkowski isn't starting for anyone in 2007.

30. Houston Texans [29] — David Carr played well at the beginning of this season, with a 113.6 passer rating in September, and mostly efficient performances the next two months. In his last eight games, though, Carr has seven interceptions and only one touchdown pass. He's been horrible in December, with a 46.9 rating. I think it was a mistake to vote for Carr on my Pro Bowl ballot instead of Carson Palmer.

31. Oakland Raiders [31] — I underestimated their defense at the beginning of the season, but the offense is incredibly, amazingly, fantastically bad. The Raiders have scored 20 points in a game only four times this season, and not since Week 8. They've been held to single digits five times and shut out three times. With so much work to do, it's probably not realistic to think this team will be able to contend in 2007, either.

32. Detroit Lions [32] — Their rushing woes continued, as quarterback Jon Kitna led the team in rushing on Sunday. Kitna has been okay this season, and Detroit needs to prioritize other positions this offseason. The offensive and defensive lines would probably be good places to start.