College Football Predictions: Bowls (Pt. 1)

All right, guys, bowl season has almost always been kind to me. Hopefully, it will be kind to all of you, as well. Each Monday, I will be posting my picks for that week's games. Good luck.

YTD Record

1* = 10-6-1
2* = 11-9-1
3* = 9-8

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Poinsettia Bowl, December 19th, 8:00 PM, ESPN

Northern Illinois (7-5) +12 vs. TCU (10-2)

Bowl season kicks off Tuesday when TCU and Northern Illinois meet in San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl. After a disappointing regular season, the Huskies are lucky just to be in a bowl game, while TCU is surely envious of Boise State's spot in the Fiesta Bowl.

On paper, these teams have nearly identical statistics offensively, but this is a bit misleading as TCU consistently faced better opposition playing in the Mountain West conference. I don't see much of an edge here either way, but if the odds makers really thought TCU was going to blow out NIU, then this line would be above 14. Look for NIU to keep it close behind their deceptively balanced offensive attack.

The play: NIU 1*

Las Vegas Bowl, December 21st, 8:00 PM, ESPN

BYU (10-2) -3 vs. Oregon (7-5)

These Las Vegas bowl participants couldn't be heading in more opposite directions coming in. BYU hasn't lost since September and went undefeated in Mountain West Conference play. Erstwhile, Oregon comes in ice-cold having lost their last three games.

This line opened at BYU -4.5 and has been pushed down to 3. Normally, I'd lean towards the ugly short dog in this spot, but I see Oregon as a consistently entity, and I really think BYU is a great value at -3. The Cougars should move the ball more consistently than the Ducks in a game that will likely feature no defense whatsoever.

The play: BYU 2*

PapaJohns.com Bowl, December 23rd, 1:00 PM, ESPN

South Florida (8-4) vs. East Carolina (7-5) +4.5

This is a matchup that only a gambler could love. Both of these teams define the word mediocre. Fortunately, sometimes the most mediocre games provide the best wagering opportunities.

These two share two common opponents as both have beaten Central Florida, while ECU lost to West Virginia and USF beat them. I really think that USF's victory over the Mountaineers inflated this line by at least two points. The Pirates are every bit as good as the Bulls, and I think they will win this one outright.

The play: ECU 2*

Hawaii Bowl, December 24th, 8:00 PM, ESPN

Arizona State (7-5) +7 vs. Hawaii (10-2)

This game amounts to a home game for the Warriors, who are looking for fourth bowl victory in their last five attempts. Arizona State should also be motivated as they will try to send coach Dirk Koetter out in style.

On paper, almost everything seems to point towards a Hawaii blowout. Arizona State has a worse record, a lame duck coach, and were blown-out by the same Oregon State team that Hawaii played very close. Hawaii is normally dynamite at home, but I'm not sure the advantage is the same when their opponent has this much time to prepare. This number seems suspiciously low, and I personally think the Sun Devils have enough weapons to keep things very tight.

The play: Arizona State 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.