As we careen toward one more year in the history books, it's always fun to take a look back at the past 52 weeks or so to see if we can learn anything that might come in handy for 2007 and beyond.
The key to the look-back is the context, the framework for the review. Some people like to look at major developments (we neither "cut and run," nor "stayed the course" in Iraq; Democrats "took over" a very slim majority in Congress and immediately began forcing their collective feet into their collective big mouths; you know, things like that).
Other people like to focus on the mundane. Best picture, sexiest newly-divorced former hot girl trying to get her image back by not wearing panties, most embarrassing mug shot, etc. The goal is to look back at all the ways we wasted our time the past year, while wasting more time in the process.
So I look back at 2006, and I'm looking for a theme. And I realize that with almost every development, be it in sports or anywhere else, the theme of the moment was "what a moron!"
Seriously, has there been a more dumb year than 2006? Just from a sports perspective, we've had the Houston Texans whiff on Reggie Bush, Isiah Thomas named coach of the New York Knicks, a million columns written about how the American League was better than the National League (only to have the Tigers commit 7,023 pitching errors in the World Series and lose to an 83-win ball club), the horrible officiating in the NBA playoffs, and the Raiders hiring Art Shell and the night manager from the Twin Oaks Motel 6 to run their franchise into the ground.
And, as illustrated by the first and last points in the previous paragraph, nothing has brought out the dumb more than the NFL. There have been so many bad predictions this season, it would be hilarious if only I wasn't one of the idiots making them.
Here, take a look:
"I just don't buy the Mario Williams talk. ... Bush provides the best opportunity for the Texans offense to start maximizing their talent. The defense isn't so bad that they have to pass up a chance at a once-in-a-decade back by taking Williams instead."
(In my defense, this led to one of my best lines of the season, as voted on by my imaginary fan base, in my draft recap column: "The people of Houston have been so generous to the residents of New Orleans since Katrina, maybe the Texans brass just got caught up in the mood.")
"I'm not sold on the Broncos pass rush, but their offense is one of the most dependable in the league."
Yeah. Dependable. Sure.
I will say that I think Mike Shanahan screwed himself on purpose with the Jay Cutler thing. Plummer was a winning quarterback whose coach sold him out weeks before he actually got benched. There really wasn't anything Plummer could have done to make it work better, especially not with the corpse of Rod Smith still out there every play. The decision to hold back on Tatum Bell was dumb, too. He's by far the best running back on the team, and would be one of the league leaders in yardage if Shanahan wasn't such an ego freak.
"St. Louis can play defense now."
The shutout of the Raiders in Week 15 not withstanding, the Rams' defense has been poor once again this season (ranking 31st in run defense, the most important defensive stat there is outside of scoring, where they are 26th). I wrote that sentence after watching the new-look Rams, led by stellar LB Will Witherspoon (a great free-agent signing), shut down the Broncos in Week 1. Unfortunately, the middle of the defensive line is still soft, and pass-rushing (and drunk-driving) machine Leonard Little can be neutralized by a successful running game.
If Jim Haslett sticks around for another year (and I can't see anybody in the NFL hiring him now — maybe college, but not the NFL), I think this defense takes a big step next year.
"Al Saunders has the Washington offense clicking, and it may be even better than his best Chiefs teams."
What makes this sentence so dumb is that we were still a month-plus away from the start of the Jason Campbell Era. So I was, in essence, saying Mark Brunell was leading the Redskins offense better than Trent Green had led the Chiefs offense when Saunders was in KC. What I neglected to realize was that the old Chiefs offensive lines were waaaaaaaaaay better than the Redskins' current line, and that Priest Holmes was a much better fit for the offense than Clinton Portis, especially when Portis never really got healthy after that unfortunate preseason injury.
The lesson from this one is to always be careful when making comparisons to the past. Don't make too much out of one game. It's a hard thing for sports writers, because so much of sports is tied to legacy. We're always looking to place current events in historical context, which many times leads to excessive praise and pre-mature comparisons.
"I don't care if they play Daughters of the Confederacy, I will not pick Oakland this year."
This is a classic example of letting your hatred of something (or someone) cloud your judgment when it comes to bets. It took me way too long this season to get on the Raiders' bandwagon as a quality cover team. In 12 games as an underdog this season, they were 6-5-1 ATS. I missed some opportunities there.
"Speaking of Bledsoe, they can't bench him for Tony Romo. They just can't. With all the T.O. nonsense, a QB controversy sinks this team for good and ends Bill Parcells' coaching career."
This takes the cake as the dumbest thing I wrote all season. What I got wrong was that benching Drew Bledsoe wasn't going to cause a quarterback controversy at all. In fact, it was exactly the opposite — benching Bledsoe prevented the controversy, making the Cowboys one of about 4 teams with the offensive and defensive balance needed for a deep playoff run. Going with Romo was absolutely the right thing to do.
Note: I still hate Parcells. He quit on the Pats in 1997. I will never forgive him.
"The Patriots' passing game is fixing to go off."
My biggest miss-calculation in the offseason was how much the Deion Branch trade would cripple the Pats offense. I picked Tom Brady in each of my fantasy leagues, and paid a huge price for it. Reche Caldwell leads the team in receptions with 53. "Fixing to go off" they are not.
"So where does Chris Simms play next year? Oakland? Detroit? Miami? Baltimore? Bruce Gradkowski is officially taking over Tampa Bay."
Just like the Raiders quote was an example of letting personal feelings cloud your judgment, this was a classic case of not trusting your gut instincts. I never liked Gradkowski, and think Simms is a future Pro Bowl quarterback. I let one good game from Gradkowski give him the key to the city, forgetting he still looked more like a UFC castoff than an NFL QB. With Tim Rattay leading an impressive comeback in Chicago in Week 15, it will be fascinating to see how the Tampa offseason unfolds.
"The toughest remaining schedule (opponents have a 58 win percentage), plus only two home games, plus Jeff Garcia, equals wait 'till next year."
Give credit where credit is due. Led by Brian Dawkins, the Eagles defense has risen to the occasion. Jeff Garcia is showing more touch than Donovan McNabb ever has, Correll Buckhalter is playing like he was supposed to four years ago, and the Eagles are in the driver's seat for a wildcard spot. I'm not putting them into the playoffs just yet, but I was certainly premature in writing them off.
"I picked up San Francisco's D for my fantasy football playoffs this week."
Green Bay scored 30 on the 49ers that week, and my fantasy season ended, but that's not the reason why it was dumb. It was dumb because you never bet all your money (or your fantasy season) against an aging legend. Sure, Brett Favre looks like Keanu Reeves from The Replacements sometimes, but he still has legend magic. And you never want to go out watching a legend play a legend game. Keep this in mind when you're betting against a struggling Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in 10 years.
So there you go. It's been a crazy, entertaining, frustrating, maddeningly unpredictable NFL season. After Week 15 (not including the Monday night Colts/Bengals game), I'm 10 games under .500 against the spread, and have a whole column's worth of dumb statements.
2007, here we come.
Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.
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