NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch

I've got an issue with the class system in college basketball. Despite the fact that the sport has the greatest collection of young writers/commentators/analysts of any major sport (Andy Katz, Jay Bilas, and Doug Gottlieb at ESPN, and Luke Winn at CNNSI among my favorites), the antiquated classification system of "major" vs "mid-major" vs "low mid-major" is allowed to live on in the national consciousness.

The problem with the term "mid-major" is that it's too general and encompassing to mean anything, like "winning the war" or "peace in the Middle East." It puts conferences like the Atlantic 10 elbow-to-elbow with giants like the Big East or ACC, while relegating much better conferences like the Missouri Valley to a hodgepodge that can range anywhere from the Colonial to the Sun Belt, MAC to WAC. (According to CollegeInsider.com)

Fitting everybody into "major" or "non-major" is like saying there are only rich people and not rich people, when there are also obscenely rich people, super rich people, middle class people, trailer-park-poor people, ghetto-projects-poor people, and homeless people (and even there you have New York Skid Row homeless vs. San Diego Beach Bum homeless). Rich and not rich just doesn't cut it.

And so in honor of Sir Edmund Burke, who once said, "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little," I'm going to do my little part to rectify this injustice. I'm killing the term mid-major, and all the false pretense that goes with it.

(Who the hell is Mr. Edmund Burke? He was a member of the British House of Commons who supported the American colonies in their grievances against King George, eventually leading to the revolution, eventually leading to the first amendment, eventually leading to the July 10, 1985 edition of Playboy. That's who.)

And so here it is, five new classes of conferences, broken into expected tournament bids and temporarily named after American political parties in honor of the inspiration for this little revolution, Sir Burke. (I'm open to suggestions for permanent replacements.)

Tier 1 - Republican* (anywhere from 4 to 8 bids)
Pacific-10, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, ACC

Tier 2 - Democrat* (anywhere from 2 to 4 bids)
Atlantic-10, Conference USA, Missouri Valley

Tier 3 - Libertarian (anywhere from 1 to 3 bids)
Mountain West, Western Athletic, Colonial

Tier 4 - Green (1 bid, maybe 2 depending on conference tournaments)
Horizon, Mid-American, West Coast, Sun Belt

Tier 5 - Communist (1 bid, that's it, nobody higher than a 13 seed)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern

* Why Republicans in front of Democrats? Because even if the Democrats controlled the Senate, Congress and White House, there would still be more millionaire Republicans. Speaking of which, I think Karl Rove threw the '06 mid-terms, giving Dems control of the House and Senate in order to absolve Republicans of sole responsibility for leadership prior to the '08 Presidential election. If the Republicans were still in charge of the whole shebang, national momentum would have gone heavily in favor of the opposition party in the next election. With a partisan split between the legislative and executive branches, Republicans can leverage the lame duck Bush administration in order to create frustration and divisiveness in the Democratic party, giving Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Howard Dean more than enough rope to hang themselves and their party, and paving the way for a John McCain/Mitt Romney administration.

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Now, with all that said, I can finally get to the point of this column, the first official Sports Central 2007 NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch. (There was one unofficial one, though I didn't know it to be unofficial at the time. Air Force, New Mexico, San Diego State, Missouri, Washington State, and Houston were the first class. Four of those teams are still alive.)

(Speaking of overused terms, the argument can certainly be made that the term "sleeper" is just as much abused as "mid-major." This might be a good time to mention that I am completely fine with all forms of hypocrisy and double standards.)

The Objective

To identify "underdog" teams capable of making at least a Sweet 16 run as an eight-seed or lower in the 2007 NCAA tournament. The "underdog" classification is defined in the rules below.

The Rules

1. No team ranked in the preseason top five of a Tier 1 conference is eligible. (Exception 1: In the SEC, no team ranked in the top three of either division is eligible. Exception 2: For some stupid reason, the Big 10 doesn't release the entire preseason coaches poll, only the top three. So I'm using Rivals' preseason projections instead.)

2. No team ranked in the preseason top two of a Tier 2 conference is eligible.

3. Any team from a Tier 3, 4, or 5 conference is eligible, unless disqualified under rules No. 4 or 5.

4. No team ranked in the top 25 of the current week is eligible. The ESPN/USA Today Poll is the poll of record.

5. Gonzaga is not eligible, even if they drop out of the top 25. (Sorry. They've had their sleeper status revoked for at least five years.)

Teams that would have been on the list if not disqualified by Rules No. 1 or No. 2 — Illinois (picked third in Big 10), Michigan (picked fifth in Big 10), Arkansas (picked third in the SEC West), Florida State (picked fifth in the ACC), Oregon (picked fifth in the Pac-10), Kansas State (picked fifth in the Big 12), Xavier (picked first in the A-10), Houston (picked second in Conference USA)**, Southern Illinois (picked second in Missouri Valley)

Teams disqualified by Rule 4 — Butler (#14), Wichita State (#16), Maryland (#22), Air Force (#23), Michigan State (#25)

Teams disqualified by Rule 5 — Gonzaga

The Watch List

1. Virginia (ACC)
2. Clemson (ACC)
3. Villanova (Big East)
4. Missouri (Big 12)
5. Missouri State (Missouri Valley)
6. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
7. South Carolina (SEC)
8. Notre Dame (Big East)
9. Dayton (A-10)
10. San Diego State (Mountain West)
11. New Mexico (Mountain West)
12. Nebraska (Big 12)
13. St. Louis (A-10)
14. Purdue (Big Ten)
15. Providence (Big East)
16. Marist (Metro Atlantic)
17. Winthrop (Big South)
18. Wake Forest (ACC)
19. Washington State (Pac-10)
20. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

The not-quite-but-maybe list (in alphabetical order): Akron, Bradley, Charlotte, Drexel, George Mason, George Washington, Kent State, Loyola (Ill.), Loyola Marymount, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern State, Old Dominion, Pennsylvania, Virginia Commonwealth, Western Michigan, Wyoming.

** Of my original six, Houston and Air Force (now ranked) have been disqualified by the official rules. The Mountain West (San Diego State, New Mexico) is a Tier 3 conference. Missouri was picked eighth in the Big 12. Washington State was picked 10th in the Pac-10.

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Well, there it is. In future editions of the Sleeper Watch, we'll take closer looks at the individual teams, tracking their progress as the season moves along. Beginning with the first Watch in January, we'll start adding the RPI into the mix (it's too early now). In February, we'll get you ready for the conference tournaments, then try to predict the entire field of 65. And, of course, once the matchups are announced, we'll see if we can't call an upset or two.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.