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December 30, 2006

NFL Quarterbacks Exposed

Can we finally start telling the truth about some of the most overhyped quarterbacks in the league? Was this past weekend not a serious indictment on some of the players that the media had all but deified at some point this year?

Everybody is quick to defend Eli Manning, as if criticizing him is somehow out of bounds. Troy Aikman on Pardon the Interruption actually said the media scrutiny is a bit unfair, being that he is the quarterback for the New York Giants.

Excuse me — didn't Eli demand a trade there, away from San Diego? Isn't this the exact environment he asked to be placed into?

On Sunday, he did what he has done a lot of lately, which is have a really bad game. True, there were a lot of drops, the whole team did play poorly, but this is the same thing we hear every week. When is it time right to realize that Eli Manning isn't very good? I wouldn't call him overrated, because that means at some point he must have been rated, and as far as I know, the only Manning to be rated at all in the past five years is Peyton. What that has to do with Eli, I don't know.

Ron Jaworski has said that Eli is never going to be a terribly accurate passer. Not an accurate passer? How does this guy get a job in the NFL? And incidentally, a lot of broadcasters are fond of saying National Football League, as if we're somehow confusing it with the CFL. "If you want to be successful in the National Football League, you have to run the football" ... blah, blah, blah.

Also, no need to say football, you can just call it a ball — no baseball announcers say, "He threw that baseball 98 miles an hour." You don't hear basketball announcers going, "That basketball is loose on the floor!" And Joe Torre doesn't begin his press conferences with "That's a good baseball team over there." Is it contractually obligated for coaches to say football team? Can't they just say team?

Eli's biggest play was thanks to a cornerback falling down, and even then, the pass was underthrown. But at least he got the Giants in the end zone once. Michael Vick was able to muster a field goal drive in 60 minutes against Carolina. At least he went over 1,000 yards rushing. The Atlanta Falcons are the best rushing team in the league, except when you actually need to get yards.

Michael Vick cannot throw. Everyone by now has seen his fourth-down incompletion in the waning moments of their loss last week, but what shows how little he has progressed over the past five years is his incompletion on the play right before his final attempt.

On third down, with a receiver open on the right sideline, Vick overthrew is target by at least 10 yards. It sure is nice when we see highlights of his spectacular run to beat the Vikings, but if he is the highest paid quarterback in the league, he should be able to make a simple out throw when the game is on the line.

I wonder if the Tony Romo love affair has started to dwindle. I don't think he's nearly as bad as Manning or Vick, but he isn't great. He's okay, maybe even good, but the way fans were fawning over him, you would have thought he's the next Aikman. That's not really a slight on him, just on the media blitz that has surrounded him. Romo is fine, but he's not a superstar.

And I don't know how Philip Rivers made it to the Pro Bowl. Someone must be joking — there isn't one person who would take Rivers over Tom Brady. In fact, the top seeds in each conference have major problems at quarterback. Rex Grossman will lose a game for the Bears, where as Rivers won't be allowed to once Marty ball kicks in this playoff season.

If the Rams make it to the playoffs, Marc Bulger will be the best quarterback no one is talking about in the NFC — and right now, they have the same record as the Giants.

The Giants played their last home game with Tiki Barber — did anyone care about this? Or for that matter, Brett Favre's annual "could it be his last season?" tour? The Packers haven't been relevant since they gave up a 4th-and-26 to the Eagles three years ago. Can we stop giving Favre an on-air parade before every game?

In case you're wondering, my top playoff quarterbacks:

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Steve McNair
Matt Hasselbeck
Drew Brees

Who are yours? Discuss in the comments.

Posted by Piet Van Leer at 6:23 PM | Comments (2)

December 28, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

N.Y. Giants @ Washington

Can you not help but pull for the Giants? Week in and week out, these guys bleed, sweat, and pay the price, lose, and still, somehow, remain in the playoff race. That's persistence, and consistency. Personally, I hope the G-Men make the playoffs exactly how one would expect them to: losing to Washington on Saturday, then having Green Bay, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Carolina all lose. New York's latest defeat, 30-7 to the Saints, was marked by the Giants' inability to take a snap in Saints' territory all day. Their lone touchdown came on a 55-yard pass from Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress to put New York up 7-0, a lead they would relinquish.

"You're right," says Tom Coughlin. "There are lots of people pulling for us. Mostly those teams that have already qualified for the playoffs, who would love to host us and our traveling circus in the playoffs. We have many weaknesses, but I think the Saints added a new wrinkle to their defense that left us helpless: placing a 'No Trespassing' sign at midfield."

Coughlin has stripped offensive coordinator John Hufnagel of play-calling duties and assigned that task to quarterbacks coach Kevin Gilbride. Will that make a difference? What do the Giants need more? New play-calling, or therapy? I think Dr. Phil is the answer, but one game would not be long enough to make a difference. He'd need at least sixteen sessions.

The Giants play Saturday night, and win or lose, they'll likely have to wait until the outcome of the Green Bay/Chicago game late Sunday to know their fate. That could make for some anxious times, but it will give Coughlin plenty of time to clean out his office. Whatever happens, Eli Manning will place a positive spin on his hideous performance.

It's another uninspired effort from the G-Men. The defense comes out flat and the offense sputters. Down 27-10, Gilbride calls a draw play on third and long that goes nowhere. Receiver Plaxico Burress' anger at the call pales in comparison to that of Buddy Ryan, who slugs Gilbride with a short right cross.

Washington wins, 27-20.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Maybe Terrell Owens was right. Who needs Donovan McNabb? The Eagles seem to be doing just fine without him, having won four straight, including three road wins over NFC East rivals. Their latest conquest, a 23-7 win over the Cowboys on Christmas, left the Eagles needing just a win over the Falcons to clinch the NFC East title. Since taking over for McNabb in Week 12, Jeff Garcia has led the Eagles to a 4-1 record.

"You have to say Jeff is a 'survivor,'" says Andy Reid. "He survived stints in Detroit and Cleveland, and has the physical scars to prove it. More impressively, he survived T.O. with his sanity intact, although he carries a load of emotional baggage from that. Jeff's not spectacular, but he's steady. He's not going to break off a 50-yard run, like Michael Vick, nor is he going to flip off fans that criticize him. This is Philly; you could save an Eagles fan's child, and two minutes later, he'll boo you. I think it's the cheesesteak that keeps him here."

Atlanta's playoff hopes rely on a win and losses by the Panthers, Packers, and Giants. They could also get in with a tie and losses by the Panthers, Packers, Giants, and Rams. The Falcons' chances are slim, as are Jim Mora's of returning as coach next season.

"There's only one 'coach-killer' Mora needs to worry about," says Atlanta owner Arthur Blank. "And that's me. Notice, if you will, Jim, that there's no sarcasm in my voice."

Garcia throws for two touchdowns, and the Eagles eliminate the Falcons, 24-7.

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Trailing 30-29 with less than a minute to go, facing a fourth and five at the Titans' 28-yard line, the Bills elected not to attempt the game-winning field goal, and J.P. Losman threw a desperation heave that was intercepted by Tennessee. Previously, kicker Rian Lindell had made five field goals, including a 45-yarder in the second quarter.

"Yeah, but the wind was gusting," says Dick Jauron. "and J.P. had previously completed 19 passes. I know Rian kicks a tighter spiral than J.P. throws, but that Buffalo wind is tricky, and Rian's only been kicking in it for what, four years?"

That's called "thinking way too much," Dicky. Heck, you could have flipped a coin, but I'm sure you were afraid the wind would have affected the coin toss, as well. Besides, doesn't "gusting" wind mean you don't really know what direction from which it's blowing?

Baltimore currently holds the second seed in the AFC. With a win and a San Diego loss, the Ravens would seize home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, due to their win over the Chargers in Week 4.

"It really doesn't matter to us whether we have the No. 1 or the No. 2 seed," says Ray Lewis. "Whether we're in San Diego or at home, we're going to blitz Philip Rivers unmercifully. All I know is the grass stains will come out of Rivers' blue uniform much more easily than his white one."

Baltimore wins, 23-9.

Carolina @ New Orleans

Carolina quarterback Chris Weinke snapped his 17-game losing streak as a starter as the Panthers ran over the Falcons 10-3 in Atlanta last Sunday. Such was John Fox's confidence in Weinke that he let the 2000 Heisman Trophy winner air it out all of seven times. Weinke completed four of those, including a one-yard strike to tight end Jeff King.

"Weinke won the Heisman?" asks Fox. "Are you sure? I guess now you're going to tell me that Gino Torretta, Rashan Salaam, and Andre Ware all won the Heisman, as well. They did? Weinke won it in 2000? Was that the year they only announced one finalist? Anyway, we had to simplify the playbook for Chris to include nothing but pictures and only shovel passes and a quick out to the tight end. And we titled it Dick and Jane Play Quarterback For the Panthers."

The Saints have clinched a first-round bye, and have nothing to play for, as the Bears have clinched home-field advantage throughout. And that plays right into the hands of the Panthers, who need a win and losses or ties by the Giants and Green Bay to qualify for the postseason.

"This puts me in the position of a fantasy owner," says Sean Payton. "I've got a serious 'sit or start' quandary. Do I play my starters and risk injury, or sit them and make sure they are healthy for our first playoff game? That's a tough question, one to which I don't know the answer. Much like this question: Who is the more masculine O'Donnell, Chris or Rosie? I don't know, but I think Rosie would make a great addition to anyone's offensive line."

The Panthers make their case for a trip to the playoffs with a 23-16 win over the Saints.

Cleveland @ Houston

Derek Anderson threw four interceptions in the Browns' 22-7 loss to Tampa Bay in the Dawg Pound, which dropped Cleveland to 4-11. The Browns were booed by their fans, some of whom wore paper sacks over their heads in protest of the team's poor performance.

"You know," says Romeo Crenel, "those thick brown grocery bags really make it difficult to breathe. I had to take mine off in the second quarter. Braylon Edwards had a heck of a time getting his helmet on over his. But we know we have a long way to go before we're a playoff-caliber team. But it's never too soon to start preparing like a playoff team. That's why I'll be sitting my starters this week to give them an extra week's rest for next year's opener in September. The difference in 37 week's rest and 36 week's rest is immense."

Kris Brown's 48-yard field goal as time expired gave the Texans a 27-24 upset of the Colts, their first win ever over Indianapolis. Gary Kubiak made all the right decisions last Sunday, but his toughest decision is yet to come: whether or not to keep quarterback David Carr.

"That's a decision we'll address in the off-season," says Kubiak. "We may be better off without David. In fairness to him, he may be better off without us. The last thing I want to do is retain David and hold him back from bigger and better things, like a spot in The Surreal Life 8 or any show involving Flava Flav."

Houston wins, 27-14.

Detroit @ Dallas

The Eagles held the Cowboys to their lowest point and yardage totals of the year in a 23-7 Christmas Day win in Dallas. Dallas only managed 201 yards of total offense, and the loss likely cost them the division crown. Dallas can still win the East with a win and Philadelphia loss, but they will most likely be the No. 5 seed in the NFC.

"Of course, we're not happy with our performance," says Bill Parcells. "And what good is home-field to us when we can't beat two of the teams we could possibly meet in the playoffs, the Eagles and Saints, in Dallas? But, as you know, the balance of power in the NFC shifts as often as the wind. Check back in a week; we might be the best team in the NFC then. And don't get me started on Terrell Owens. He's an extremely physically gifted athlete, although he has two genetic abnormalities that have plagued his career: a mouth that won't shut, and hands that won't shut (around the football). You're by no means perfect, T.O. And what's with the Santa Flaws, I mean Claus, hat? If pain is a gift, then you deliver it, to my rear."

If only the Detroit front office had kept their receipts, then maybe they could return all the failed No. 1 draft picks, and even general manager Matt Millen, for credit in the 2007 draft. But crappy draft picks aren't as easy to return as crappy Christmas gifts. Otherwise, the Lions would have $15 or so the spend as they please at Target. But the Lions can find some comfort in an upset of the Cowboys. But can that happen in storied Texas Stadium, home of the "Ring of Honor," where names like Tom Landry, Roger Stauback, Troy Aikman, and Emmitt Smith reside? Prior to the game, Millen admires the Ring from the field, and wonders what such a ring would look like in Detroit's Ford Field, full of players drafted by Millen that have achieved stardom. "Empty" is the first word that comes to his mind, so he abandons the idea.

Dallas wins, 30-20. Owens score one touchdown on a 27-yard pass from Tony Romo, and also on an end-around, a play later dubbed "Reverse Cowboy" by T.O.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

The Jaguars and Chiefs find themselves in the same boat: their playoff stakes ride on a win and losses by every other contender for the final wildcard spot. Jacksonville needs a win and a Jets loss, a Bengals loss or tie, and a Titans loss or tie. Kansas City needs a win and a Denver loss, a Cincinnati loss or tie, and a Tennessee loss or tie.

"Yeah, we're on the same boat," says Jack Del Rio, "which happens to be on the same creek, if you smell what I'm saying. The odds are long, and I'm not sure there is a dress suit made that will lead us to victory, and I'm not sure Herman Edwards has the motivational speech in him to spark his guys to a win."

With the Jags down 20-16 in the fourth, Del Rio calls "Possum Right 73 Zip Delay," in which Maurice Jones-Drew take a handoff, runs into his own lineman, falls to the ground, briefly snoozes, then gets up and scampers 51 yards for a touchdown without being touched by a Chief.

Jacksonville wins, 23-20.

Miami @ Indianapolis

The Indianapolis run defense reared its ugly head again, surrendering 191 yards on the ground to the Texans in a 27-24 loss that likely cost them a first-round bye. The Colts would need a win over the Dolphins and a Baltimore loss to Buffalo to regain the No. 2 seed.

"It's not a good sign when opposing teams have our defense scheduled for an 'afternoon walk-through' on their bulletin board," says Peyton Manning. "You'd think our defense would be getting tired of being called 'small up front.' Anyway, I think the key to our playoff survival is red zone offense and defense. If teams are going to run right through us, we've got to find a way to keep them out of the end zone. And, on offense, anytime we score, it's got to be a touchdown. No more settling for field goals. I have all the confidence in the world in Adam Vinatieri, the universe's greatest clutch kicker, but unless he's kicking 10 field goals a game, we haven't scored enough."

It's not like bye weeks have benefitted the Colts in years past. Maybe what they need is a tough first round game against an opponent that can't run the ball. Unfortunately, any team can run the ball on the Colts, even the Dolphins.

"You know, Lynyrd Skynyrd made famous a song called 'Sweet Home Alabama,'" says Nick Saban. "What does that have to do with Manning and the Volunteers, I mean Colts? Nothing. I've just been humming that tune for days. Anyway, in today's SEC, I mean NFL, anything is possible, especially in the final week of the regular season."

Manning throws two touchdowns, and Vinatieri nails a 38-yard field goal as time expires to win it.

Indy wins, 20-17.

New England @ Tennessee

Wouldn't it be great to see what kind of defense Bill Belichick would employ to contain the magic of Vince Young? After last week's 30-29 win in Buffalo, Young and the Titans have won six straight, and would make the playoffs with a win, combined with Cincinnati and Denver losses and a Kansas City win over Jacksonville.

"Now why would I reveal my master plan in Week 17," says Belichick, "when we could very well face the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, should Tennessee make it? I don't play poker, but I know you should never show your hand until you have to. And we don't have to. Now, if you insist on seeing my hand, it will come in the form of an open-handed slap to your face. I know everyone wants to see Tom Brady versus Vince Young, the crafty veteran against the gifted rookie, 'Tom-foolery' versus 'Vin-sanity,' if you will. Those people will have to wait."

The Titans could become the first team in NFL history to start 0-5 and make the playoffs. It's an unlikely scenario, but not impossible.

"Take a look at the reflection in my mirrored sunglasses," says Jeff Fisher. "Tell me what you see."

Well, Jeff, I see myself.

"Exactly. Now, if you looked from my vantage-point, while wearing these shades, you'll see that my good friends at Circuit City have outfitted my lenses with tiny screens that will allow me to monitor the 1:00 Pittsburgh/Cincinnati and Jacksonville/Kansas City games. Otherwise, we're concerned with no one but ourselves."

Titans win, 23-17.

Oakland @ N.Y. Jets

Last week, the NFL Network's Adam Schefter reported that Oakland head coach Art Shell would be fired at the end of the season. The Raiders organization fired back, accusing Schefter of being not just a rumor monger, but a "false" rumor monger, and questioning Schefter's "source" within the organization, claiming that no one trusted him. And it didn't help matters when Schefter later reported that Shell would offer his vocal stylings to the character of the water buffalo in Disney's upcoming animated feature, The Big, Wack, Yak Attack, slated for release in the summer of 2007.

"Let's face it," says Schefter, "if Shell were an animal, he'd be a water buffalo. Come on. The big head, doesn't move much, can't coach. That's Shell. Although, I think a water buffalo would have some control over Randy Moss."

The Raiders then reported that Schefter will appear in the same movie, voicing the character of the weasel.

It's simple for the Jets: win and they are in the playoffs. New York is crisp from the start, and they jump out to a 14-0 lead. The Raiders roar back with three Sebastian Janikowski field goals. With the score 14-9 in the third quarter and the Jets driving, the game is suddenly interrupted by the broadcast of the movie Call Me: The Rise and Fall of Heidi Fleiss. Television stations are flooded by phone calls, many by angry New Yorkers not wanting to miss a minute of the game, others by grateful Raider fans dying for entertainment, even if it's low-grade drivel produced by MTV. When the game broadcast is restored, Chad Pennington is taking a knee.

New York wins, 23-12.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

The Bengals' Christmas was ruined when a botched PAT attempt prevented them from tying Denver 24-24 and likely forcing an overtime. Instead, Cincinnati lost 24-23 and fell back into the pool of AFC teams who must win and get help to make the playoffs. The Bengals are in under these two scenarios: a win and a Jets loss, or a win, a Denver loss, and a Kansas City win.

"It certainly was a devastating loss in Denver," says Marvin Lewis. "So much so that I actually encouraged my players to drink afterwards. This way, those gift cards I gave them, good for bail anywhere in the nation, will surely come in handy. And they're reloadable."

Pittsburgh was officially eliminated from the playoffs with their 31-7 loss in Baltimore, dropping the Steelers to 7-8. With a win in Cincinnati, the Steelers would finish 8-8, avenge an earlier loss to the Bengals, and knock their AFC North rivals out of the playoffs. It would also give Bill Cowher a win in his final game as Pittsburgh coach, assuming Adam Schefter's hard-nosed reporting is accurate.

"Hey, Schefter doesn't get all the scoops," says Cowher. "Actually, Jerome Bettis broke this story before the season even started. I'd like to see the Raiders question Jerome's journalistic integrity. All Jerome did was ask me if I was leaving at season's end. I replied, 'Who dey?' Apparently, Jerome took that as a 'yes.' But for the real answer, you'll all have to wait until my press conference next week. If the tears are flowing, I'm gone. If the spittle is flying, I'm staying."

Down 27-20 with less than a minute to play, Palmer hits Chad Johnson for a 12-yard score. On the ensuing PAT attempt, the offense remains on the field, with Carson Palmer lined up as holder and Rudi Johnson as kicker. Palmer takes the snap and lofts the two-point conversion pass to snapper T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Cincy wins, 28-27.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay

It's not often a heartbreaking 20-17 loss to arguably the NFL's best team is reason to celebrate, but in the case of the Seahawks, it was. Despite losing on Philip Rivers 37-yard touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson with 29 seconds to go, Seattle wrapped up the NFC West when the 49ers lost to the Cardinals.

"Hey, it's reason to celebrate," says Shaun Alexander. "We're NFC West champions. No one else can say that, nor would they want to. But we'll deservedly celebrate like the champions we are by dousing ourselves with water straight out of the shower, and we'll wear these championship t-shirts and hats proudly, under sweatshirts and jackets. Those son of a guns are selling like hot cakes laced with cyanide. And we'll be greeted like heroes along the 1/16th-mile parade route through downtown Medina, a suburb of Seattle."

Seattle is the No. 4 seed in the NFC and cannot improve on that seeding, regardless of what happens Sunday. The Seahawks likely will face an 8-8 (possibly a 7-8-1) in the first round of the playoffs. Should Seattle lose to the Bucs, then we could be witness to the first NFL playoff game pitting two 8-8 teams. The NFC just screams "quality."

Tampa Bay wins, 24-21.

St. Louis @ Minnesota

The Rams are still in the running for the final ticket to the NFC playoffs after their thrilling 37-31 overtime win over the Redskins. Marc Bulger passed for 388 yards and four touchdowns, and Steven Jackson's 21-yard TD run won it for the Rams. At 7-8, along with the Panthers, Falcons, Giants, and Packers, the Rams need a win, and help from the Coalition of the Willing, meaning teams willing to lose.

"If you would have told me a few weeks ago that we'd have a shot at the playoffs," says Marc Bulger, "I would have replied, 'Damn, the NFC must suck.' Now, if you would have told me a few weeks ago that we'd have a shot at the playoffs, along with four other 7-8 teams, I would have probably just called you a liar."

Well, if anyone predicted that scenario, they must really know their footall, but I bet they have no clue about weather forecasting.

Last week, the Vikings managed only three first downs in a 9-7 loss to the Packers, thereby abandoning ship on their playoff aspirations. Their only score came on a Fred Smoot 47-yard interception return. Tarvaris "Play Action" Jackson will start his second game, and will look to improve on his 10-20, 50 yard numbers from last Thursday.

"It's one thing to play in the cold of Lambeau in front of the entire population of Green Bay," says Jackson. "And it's another to play in the climate-controlled Metrodome filled to nowhere near capacity by 20,000 of my closest friends and relatives, enjoying the game courtesy of tickets I was suckered in to buying by Mike Tice."

Bulger throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns and the Rams wins 27-13.

Arizona @ San Diego

Philip Rivers' 37-yard touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson gave the Chargers a 20-17 win over the homestanding Seahawks. On the day, Rivers was 10 for 30 for 181 yards and two touchdowns. That won't get you to the Pro Bowl (wait, yes it will), but it did get the Chargers their 13th win. A win on Sunday ensures home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"Look, I'm sick of having to reprimand guys named Greg who say, 'Take away Ladainian, the Chargers got nothing,'" says Rivers. "You know, like I do in that NFL Network commercial. I proved last Sunday that we can win without LaDainian scoring. And I proved that two TD passes greatly outweighs 20 incompletions out of 30 passes. And answer me this: how does Tiger Woods beat LaDainian for the Associated Press Male Athlete of the Year Award? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Tiger basically just playing the course? Heck, if you put L.T. on a football field with a few sand traps, a water hazzard, a couple of trees, drunken fans at the 17th, and no defense, I think he could score 50 touchdowns, easily."

True, but can L.T. shape a 3-wood on a dogleg right around a stand of trees to a postage stamp green guarded on the left by water, sand on the right, and thick rough in the back? You're right. He probably can.

The Cardinals beat the 49ers 26-20 last week to improve to 5-10. Matt Leinart suffered a sprained shoulder and will miss the season finale; Kurt Warner, who has announced his intentions to return in 2007, will get the start.

"Hey, if Jesus Christ can return, why can't I?" asks Warner. "This team needs me just as much as mankind needs Jesus. At a time like this, with Matt down with a shoulder injury, having a veteran backup like myself is imperative to a team on the rise. Matt can't even raise that left shoulder high enough to place his arms around the tanned shoulders of a hottie he's walking out of a nightclub. I'm there for him in that situation, as well."

Tomlinson adds to his touchdown total with two scores along with 132 yards rushing.

San Diego wins, 30-14.

San Francisco @ Denver

As is often said this time of year, the Broncos "control their own destiny." With a win, they are in the playoffs. And if that win comes by virtue of a bad snap on a potential game-tying extra point attempt by the 49ers, then that will make it all the more satisfying. Denver held on to beat the Bengals 24-23 when a bad snap on Shayne Graham's PAT attempt sailed wide of holder Kyle Larson.

"I never thought I would see this kind of thing," says Mike Shanahan. "No, not a missed PAT, but the referees signaling 'wide left' on a snap. Now, any time I come across a Bengal, I'll just snap my fingers. Not that I spend that much time in police stations."

If the seedings hold, Denver will travel to New England in the first round of the playoffs. Last year, the Broncos beat the visiting Patriots in the AFC divisional round playoffs. Earlier this year, in Week 3, Denver beat New England in Foxboro.

"That's a rematch we welcome just as much as the Patriots," says Jay Cutler. "If Jake Plummer can beat the Patriots twice, I should be able to do it, easily. I even started my playoff beard growing months ago in preparation for a moment like this. I'm still waiting for that thing to fill in, but in the meantime, I'll defer to Jake's unkempt, Grizzly Adams growth as my motivation."

Because they lost to Arizona last week, the 49ers, instead of playing for a shot at the division crown, are playing for nothing more than a chance to derail the Broncos' wildcard dreams. That's too bad, because the NFC sure could have used another 7-8 team in the wildcard mix.

Denver wins, 24-20.

Green Bay @ Chicago

The Bears got by the Lions 26-21 thanks to three Robbie Gould field goals in the fourth quarter. The last of those two kicks were set up on drives engineered by backup quarterback Brian Griese, who replaced Rex Grossman in the fourth quarter. Lovie Smith insisted the QB change was planned from the start and won't upset the balance of the NFC's top-seeded team.

"I'll says it again," says Smith. "Rex Grossman is our quarterback. And I say that with the sincerity of Joe Isuzu. Now, as for those rumors that Brian Griese is legally changing his name to Rex Grossman, that's something started by a false rumor monger. Of course, that doesn't mean it's not true. I'll say this: in the playoffs, our quarterback will be the player who gives us the best chance of winning. That's why Devin Hester will start at quarterback in the playoffs."

In what could possibly be Brett Favre's final game, the Packers will know whether winning will get them into the playoffs. If the Giants lose, the Packers have a very good shot.

"Go Giants!" exclaims Favre. "Michael Strahan, I know you're not playing, but you need to convince your teammates to 'lay down' like I did for you when you broke the single-season sack record. Remember? You owe me. Now, as far as retirement goes, there's a good chance this will be my last year. If I throw seven touchdowns against the Bears to tie Dan Marino's NFL record, then I'm done. If not, I'll be back next year."

Green Bay wins, 17-16.

After the game, several of the Bears inexplicably record a rap tune called the "Super Bowl Shuttle," about a mini-bus that takes ticket holders from the parking lot to Miami's Dolphins Stadium, site of this year's Super Bowl. "It's almost kickoff, time to scuttle, you need a ride on the 'Super Bowl Shuttle," raps Rex Grossman.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:05 PM | Comments (0)

Great Writers Sub For Slant Pattern

Hello readers,

Unfortunately, I'm too busy this week to write a column. Luckily, I've got some high-profile columnists — some even from beyond the grave — to pinch hit and write a few paragraphs apiece for me. Enjoy.

HUNTER S. THOMPSON

The Divine Ogres. The Men Who Understand. Those are some of the names I bequeath on the apocalyptic pied pipers of Nantucket, the New England Patriots. They will win it all this year. This was obvious enough back in July, when Tom Brady shared a few highballs and 'ludes at my hotel room in Phoenix. He came to haggle over the price of a Hieronymus Bosch painting I had in my possession (the man knows Art as well as he knows Victory and Blood), and after the fiduciary details of the transaction were settled by my Laotian assistant, Pramhphon, we settled in to watch an old Doors concert.

"Were gonna win it all again this year, Hunty," he said between gulps. "I have a secret weapon this year. Can't tell you about it, of course. But it does mean that ... well, I'll say this. The doomed swinehead of anarcho-capitalism doesn't pass muster with the crossbones on the spiked gridiron." I knew exactly what he meant.

LEWIS GRIZZARD

You know what's great about being a Southerner? We don't put on airs like yankees do. My publisher last week forced me to go to a book signing party in New York. First thing you notice about New York is it smells funny. Now, I'll be the first to tell you that some things in the South smell funny, too, like my cousin Betty Bob's bathroom after she's been pulling turnips for a few hours (probably eating some, too). But New York smells worse, because it's the smell of pee and North and God-knows-what.

Second thing you notice about New York is, they talk funny. What I mean to say is, they don't talk natural. They say things like "Ohh, Mr GrizZARD! I just LOVED your BOOK!" I'd like to tell them to kiss off because I didn't write it for them, but my publisher doesn't want me yelling at my fans anymore.

So not only do I have to be in New York, but I have to act all nice to everybody. That's hard to do, so I drank from a little bottle I took with me to make it easier. In fact, I drank so much I ended up puking all over my publisher. Did I mention she is from New York, too? Yeah. As far as hear reaction goes, like I said ... yankees put on airs. Oh yeah. This is supposed to be about sports. I predict the Falcons will not win the Super Bowl. GO DAWGS!!!!

Dr. Z FROM SPORTS ILLUSTRATED

So I was drinking wine this Friday past with the Flaming Redhead (1971 Belle du Noir Chablis to complement a lovely eggplant casserole, thank you) and she handed me an intriguing letter from reader Scott in Yonkers, NY.

First, Scott, thank you so much for the kind, kind words about how much you enjoy my column. Your faithful readership and interest in my writing means a lot to me, as it does from all my readers. You guys are the reason I write. Thanks again. And thanks for the wine recommendation. I found it precocious, but workable.

Anyways, Scott wants to know if the Buccaneers are going to get better next year. It depends on how their draft goes.

Next is a letter from Jolene in Kenosha, Wisconsin. I used to date a girl from Kenosha. Her name wasn't Jolene, though. Thank you, too, Jolene, for the praise. I really appreciate it. Such nice things to say about little ol' me! "Too nice," says the Flaming Redhead.

Jolene asks what rookie from this year will has the best chance of being a Hall of Famer someday. It's too early to tell.

Must run, or the last few bites of my eggplant casserole will need to be microwaved to be palatable again. Ta.

"THE FLY" FROM THE SPORTING NEWS

Da Fly don' herd da New York Football Giants got their wah-wah ped' stu' o' d' buh.

BILL SIMMONS FROM ESPN

So I rounded up my buddies J-Bug, Dash, Goof, T-Rex, Fen Fen, Screwball, Screwball II, Meat, and Dogneck and we headed to Vegas, baby!

I spent most of my time at the craps table and you will not believe who sat down next to me.

C'mon, guess.

Have you guessed yet?

Are you ready?

HAL LINDEN.

That's right! Barney Miller! And he asked me if I could change an $100 bill. That's right. Unintentional Comedy ranking of about 70. Vegas does weird things to people.

He actually seemed pretty cool, and we spent about an hour at the table. Then he asked me who I thought was going to win the Super Bowl this year.

I said, "H-linde-loodog, I don't know. But it won't be Peyton Manning and the Colts. Mr. Manning will be home crying his eyes out, running around screeching, "WAAH! WAAH! I WISH I WAS TOM BRADY! I WISH I WAS TOM BRADY! I HAVE GAY LOVE FOR HIM!" And Tony Dungy will be running around his house screeching, "WAAH! WAAH! MY SON IS DEAD! HE SHOT HIMSELF!"

(I can't believe I just went there.)

(But I did!)

Anyway, as usual, I have no idea how to end my column, so I'll just say Vegas, baby! and turn the column over to wife, who will come off as a character from the movie "Clueless" and suddenly make it understandable how it is indeed possible for an actual woman to be willing to marry me and bear my children. Honey?

MRS SIMMONS

Can you believe how much Gucci handbags cost these days? It's like, oh my god. But other handbags are just so LAME, you know? Like, 1990. Lindsay Lohan is a whore.

GREGG EASTERBROOK FROM ESPN

It's time for my annual Super Bowl prediction column. But first, here's a conservative viewpoint I have on a topic that's totally unrelated to football. Now, to show you what a thoughtful, issue-by-issue non-partisan I am, here's a liberal viewpoint I have on a topic that's totally unrelated to football. Did you see that balance? If that didn't impress you, maybe these academic credentials, as well as an aside that belongs in a post-graduate scientific journal, will.

On to football. It's too bad the Carolina Panthers — er, shoot, what's the ICELANDIC word for panther? No, what's the Iceleandic phrase for "Cat of the night which is sometimes dominant, sometimes errant?" — won't make the playoffs, because with their brand of football, methinks it would have at least been, shall we say, entertaining! And a ho ho!

By the way, none of you guys noticed, during my exile at NFL.com, how much I softened my tone regarding my longtime disgust at the DirecTV NFL monopoly and the Redskins nickname, right? Good. Because I feel you should shuck-and-jive for your employer. They are the ones paying you! It's why I'm so anti-player. That and because most average joes think players are too big for their britches, and in addition to being an academic, I'm also a populist. Occasionally I will stand up for the players, but only to impress you with my balance again.

I still haven't said who will win the Super Bowl. But we all know predictions are for chumps. Guys who make predictions are usually wrong, and then I point and laugh at them! I will say that the team that wins the Super Bowl will run more, blitz less, and take more chances on fourth down. I'm not sure you knew I supported such a gameplan. But I do. Here's some more academic wonkery. Let me close by saying, I heart boobs.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 8:28 PM | Comments (1)

NCAA Gives New Meaning to Gender Bias

"We talkin' about practice! Not a game. We talkin' about practice, man. We ain't talking about the game. But we talkin' about practice!"

No, we are not talking about the infamous press conference in May of 2002 and Allen Iverson's response to questions as to why he missed practices with his Philadelphia 76ers teammates. Yet, in hindsight and compared to the esteemed wisdom of the National Collegiate Athletic Association's (NCAA) Committee on Women's Athletics (CWA) and their recent revelation, Iverson's response seems quite apropos.

In a world where political correctness has run amok in every facet of U.S. society, why should the NCAA be any different than any other bureaucratic organization or private corporation? In fact, the NCAA in its efforts to try to separate itself from the image of it being an elitist governing body and only about the scholastic educations of our collegiate athletes, it once again fails us. While trying to convince educators and the public-at-large that it is all about the institution of education, as it prevails by operating similarly to a revenue generating entity, it continues to stumble upon its own misguided principles.

Title IX was enacted into law in 1972 in order to promote sports scholarships and equity for female student athletes seeking a secondary education. NCAA division schools received revenue to support various women's team and sports commensurate to the men's athletic programs. Yet, in its latest attempt to show how it is conscious of gender-equity in Title IX compliance, the CWA has hijacked Title IX and has misappropriated its original intent.

In fact, the CWA needed the past two years to study the latest twist on gender equity or gender-bias, depending upon from which vantage point it is seen, on the issue of the use of male varsity athletes as volunteer practice players primarily for Division I women's basketball teams. The CWA recommended on December 13, 2006 to ban the use of non-scholarship eligible enrolled male varsity athletes from participating from any practices or training within women's intercollegiate athletics programs at Division I or Division II NCAA colleges or universities. Division III already adheres to such a regulation.

Although not yet a mandate, the CWA believes that, "The use of male practice players violates the spirit of gender equity and Title IX and that any inclusion of male practice players results in diminished participation opportunities for female student athletes, contrary to the NCAA's principles of gender equity, non-discrimination, competitive equity and student athlete well-being."

But contrary to what the CWA believes, most Division I and successful women's basketball coaches of both genders, coaches of soccer and volleyball teams as well as the Women's Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) believe that such a requirement would interfere with the development of female athletes and would provide a diminished return to their star athletes, should they be forced to eliminate the male practice players. Fortunately, NCAA committees, conferences, and schools will be able to make proposals on the subject during the next year. A vote on the issue by the NCAA would not take place until at least January 2008.

But players such as Erlana Larkins and Ivory Latta, both All-Americans and stars of the elite women's basketball program at the University of North Carolina, relish the time they have playing against the guys. Their practices are intense and the height and strength of the men enhance their training drills, thus rewarding them in actual games. "Love 'em," says Latta. "That's how they make us better. They give us attitude. They give us the killer instinct." And Larkin agrees. "I don't see us getting any better with girls practicing against us and practicing against our teammates."

Likewise, Duke basketball coach Gail Goestenkors endorses the practice of the men players and questions how they would get enough women players to challenge the height and jump capabilities of the very tallest and most accomplished female basketball players. And it is in that regard that the CWA overlooked the subtle accomplishments in women's sports since 1972. There are remaining gripes about shortages and inequities in the number of female coaches and the inability of women's sports, other than women's basketball, still receiving little attention or enough scholarships. Yet, when it comes to basketball, it has led the way in women's collegiate athletics. And so, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Steeped in its own myopia, CWA committee members such as Patrick Nero, Commissioner of the America East Conference laments, "How are they to get better if they're sitting in practice? It's one thing to not be playing in a game because they haven't reached that level yet, but for them to sit through an entire practice while men run up and down with their teammates, we just think it's really against the spirit of Title IX."

But to assume that because two or three male practice players equates no practice time for bench or second team players is misguided and gives little credit to the individual coaches who stand to lose games unless they practice all of their players. Just because the starters are practicing with men, does not mean that the bench players are not practicing with them at all. For the most part, they are actually practicing against the starters who are only made better by practicing at a higher level.

Also not given credence is the problem of the number of scholarships offered to female athletes. Not every school has the resources. According to Goestenkors, she only has 11 or 12 players on scholarship. "Now I have to have 15 on scholarships just so I can [have enough] to practice."

And who can argue with Tennessee coach Pat Summitt, who has won more games than any other coach in the history of women's basketball? She weighed in last week and said, "I think it would be detrimental to women's basketball. If you look at what has happened, the parity in the game, the fact that we have male practice players, they challenge us. It's not like they take away opportunities. On the contrary, they provide opportunities for our teams to work on specific game preparation."

And also probably unknown to most people, according to Coach Summitt, when she coached the U.S. Olympic Women's Basketball team as far back as 1984 she recalls, "We played against one female team in the exhibition games. The rest of the time, we played against males. The guys made us better."

Russ Rose, women's volleyball coach at Penn State University notes, "I feel comfortable that every player in my gym has the opportunity to make progress because they are allowed to come in and get individual instruction anytime they want. I think it would do more damage to my second team to have the first team beat the heck out of them every day. Now, the second team has a chance to beat the first team on a daily basis, and some of those second team kids get a chance to elevate their play. You need your starting team on one side and a formidable opponent on the other."

And Stanford University women's volleyball coach, John Dunning, although he does not use male practice players says, "Good coaching is learning how to balance: to create in players a sense of self-esteem balanced with pushing them to get better. If you can create a setting in practice that's harder than games by having better people on the other side of the net — as long as that's managed properly — then that certainly make sense."

While the NCAA remains dismayed about the lack of women's coaching opportunities, it props up its ill-serving methodology on gender equity through statistics which do not paint the entire picture. For example, in 1972 more than 90% of women's teams were coached by women. In 2006, this number has fallen dramatically to 42.4%. In 1972, more than 90% of women's athletic programs were administered by female athletic directors. In 2006, 92% of Division I Athletic Directors are male and 8% are female. Yet, since 1972, the quality of the play of female athletes and the strength of individual programs has improved significantly.

The silver lining, which the NCAA and CWA need to take a serious look at, is the actual realized accomplishment of the women athletes in these programs, who exemplify the true meaning of the student athlete. With the exception of the WNBA, which after 10 years is running on fumes going into 2007, there are no professional athletic opportunities for women athletes. For those who are lucky enough to reach the Olympics in individual sports such as track and field or swimming, it is a long, long road, and they rarely ever reach the compensation or notoriety of their male counterparts.

College is the time for female athletes to shine, be it from the expertise of a male coach, female coach, or male practice players. And with the advent of the NCAA Final Four basketball championship, by way of the success of the men's tournament, the women's NCAA Final Four focuses more attention on women's sports than any other event with the exception of the Olympics. By extension, a positive and supportive environment for the future of all girls across the U.S. from all walks of life is finally emerging. And those girls in search of all kinds of future endeavors are no longer pure fantasy but translate into real possibilities.

And for those of you too young to remember or not born yet, there was a time when a male coach would never want to be associated with coaching women. They would not take those coaching jobs because they thought it was a step down, that women were not worth the effort and looked upon it as a humiliation. And there certainly was a time when you would never get an undergraduate male athlete willing to volunteer his free time to play basketball with a girl. In fact, these guys are not just practice players, but have become the designated cheerleaders for the women. They then encourage their male friends to go to games and support women's sports at their schools. So there are hidden trade-offs, too.

Women's sports will continue to thrive because of the attention paid and insight given by men in collaboration with women. Gender equity will not evolve without the support of men. Its intent was not to bar men. Its intent was to help women succeed. And unless the NCAA realizes that, Title IX will not fulfill its intended purpose.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 8:00 PM | Comments (6)

December 27, 2006

NCAA Report: Fear the Dragons

Let's see...

Christmas is finally over.

New Year's Eve is Sunday. I'll probably get drunk.

James Brown is dead.

Memphis is carrying Conference USA like Al Pacino carried The Godfather: Part III.

Drexel may be the best basketball team in Philadelphia (76ers included).

***

The 2006-2007 NCAA men's basketball season is off to a grand start, and nowhere has it been more grand than on the 42-acre Drexel University campus in Philadelphia.

With a three-game run of road wins against Villanova, Syracuse, and Temple, the Dragons are proving George Mason's Final Four run was no fluke. The Colonial is a top-10 conference (better than Conference USA — believe it).

And despite being completely overlooked in both the latest AP and ESPN/USA Today polls (not a single rotten vote in the latter), I guarantee you no opposing coach is going to want to see this team come the NCAA tournament.

Here's the thing: they don't shoot that well (45% FG, 65% FT, 35% from three). They have more turnovers per game (15.7) than assists (12.3). And they aren't overly deep, playing an eight-man rotation. They even lost to Penn and Rider in back-to-back games in November.

So how does that team get an RPI of 7 and their own column?

For one, Bruiser Flint. A two-time Colonial Coach of the Year, Flint has an 83-65 record in five seasons at the school (this being his sixth after leaving Massachusetts with an 86-72 record). Since his arrival, the Dragons have had the conference Defensive Player of the Year three times, and have had seven members of the conference's All-Defensive team. (BruiserFlint.com‚ he's got his own website! He's definitely heading to the SEC in a year or two.)

Through 10 games, the Dragons are holding opponents to 61 points per game on 39 percent shooting. They lead the Colonial in blocks (5.9 per game) and steals (10 per game). They force 18.6 turnovers per game. They out-rebounded Temple by 19, and have gone to the free-throw line more than their opponents five times during their current six-game winning streak (Syracuse tied them with 24 attempts).

In other words, Bruiser Flint has these guys up their opponents' asses the whole game.

(Not literally. That would be gross and inappropriate.)

Two, Drexel has a quality inside-outside combo (offensive and defensive) with junior center Frank Elegar and senior guard Bashir Mason. Elegar leads the team in scoring (15.3) and put up 27 and 10 against Syracuse. Mason averages more than three steals per game (12 steals in the three-game run), and can score in a big game (21 vs. Villanova). Senior 6-10 forward Chaz Crawford (8.4 rebounds, 3.8 blocks per game) and sophomore guard Tramayne Hawthorne (2.1 steals per game, 44% from three) have also made consistent contributions on both sides of the floor.

Senior guard Dominick Mejia is in a shooting slump (30 percent from three, down from 37 percent last season), but it looks like Flint is trying to get him through it because Mejia hasn't let the poor percentages stop him from jacking up threes en masse (6-of-24 against Syracuse and Temple), and Flint hasn't cut his minutes as a result (32 in each of the past two games).

Drexel begins Colonial play with George Mason on Thursday in Philadelphia, and, from the look of things, that game may officially signal the passing of the torch for the Colonial's threat to the college basketball world. (VCU, Old Dominion, and Hofstra may take umbrage with that statement. Then again, they aren't No. 7 in the RPI, are they?) (www.kenpom.com)

Sadly, as the latest rankings show, even if Drexel goes on to win the Colonial tournament and take the auto bid, they will still probably get stuck with a too-low seed.

Then again, this will make them angry (a good thing) and most likely facing the third- or fourth-best team from one of the larger conferences (also a good thing).

Miracles have been made from less.

Seth Doria is a writer/sellout in Missouri. His weekly Sleeper Watch and Daily NCAA Reports are posted on The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 7:17 PM | Comments (0)

College Football Predictions: Bowls (Pt. 2)

Week 1 of bowl season was pretty much a disaster. I'd follow these picks with a great amount of caution.

YTD Record

1* = 10-7-1
2* = 12-11-1
3* = 9-8

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Texas Bowl, December 28th, 8:00 PM, NFL Network

Kansas State +7 vs. Rutgers

By now, all of you know that Rutgers is the feel good story of the year, etc, etc. They were a tough overtime loss in Morgantown away from being a BCS participant. Kansas State had a very pedestrian year with the highlight being a home win over Texas, and the low-light certainly being an embarrassing road loss to Kansas to close the year.

Anytime a nationally-ranked, 10-2 team like Rutgers is laying a touchdown or less, there is going to be a flood of money coming in on the favorite, which makes the Wildcats a very nice looking anti-public under dog in this game. Kansas State has the personnel to play Rutgers very tough, and I would not be shocked if they won this one outright.

The play: Kansas State 2*

Holiday Bowl, December 28th, 8:00 PM, ESPN

Cal -4 vs. Texas A&M

Both of these teams enter bowl season fresh off confrontations with their fiercest rivals. A&M disposed of Texas in its final regular season game, while Cal fell in L.A. to the Trojans on the 18th of November before nipping Stanford at home in their finale.

Cal is one of those teams that I can't seem to get away from. I still think they possess way more ability than they have shown this year, and I really believe that they are going to stomp the Aggies in this one. That being said, A&M does have a very proven rushing attack thanks to the trio of Mike Goodson, Jorvorskie Lane, and Stephen McGee. I'm taking Cal, but I am going to tread lightly.

The play: Cal 1*

Liberty Bowl, December 29th, 4:30 PM, ESPN

Houston +5.5 vs. South Carolina

For the second straight year, Steve Spurrier has South Carolina playing in a bowl game, and SC will certainly be looking to make up last seasons Independence Bowl loss to Missouri in which they blew a big first-half lead. Houston is a similar situation as they were handled by Kansas during bowl play last year.

This matchup seems like a classic case of the name game. South Carolina does not have enough talent to be favored by this much against a Houston team that has a very balanced attack. The names Spurrier, SEC, and Sidney Rice are the reason for the bloated line. All of this makes Houston a very live dog, and I absolutely love them in this spot.

The play: Houston 3*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.

Posted by Ryan Hojnacki at 7:09 PM | Comments (1)

December 26, 2006

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations to all this year's first-time Pro Bowlers, especially Reggie Wayne, Aaron Schobel, and Rashean Mathis. Those guys have been waiting for this, and I'm glad they're finally being honored with trips to Hawaii.

* Pro Bowl snubs: Kelly Gregg, Bart Scott, Marco Rivera, and Pat Williams. I'm not just talking about good players who didn't make it, but guys who are at or near all-pro level and got passed over in favor of players who really don't belong in the Pro Bowl.

* Undeserving selections: DeAngelo Hall and the backup offensive linemen in the NFC. Matt Birk is nothing special, Larry Allen is past his prime, and I have no idea who votes for Chris Samuels. Hall is the most overrated defensive back in the NFL.

* Among this year's top 10 wireless vote-getters were Michael Vick (3rd), Rex Grossman (6th), Donovan McNabb (7th), Reggie Bush (9th), and Eli Manning (10th). Perhaps the NFL should consider not counting these votes in the future.

* Or maybe they already don't, since none of those guys — half of the top 10 — made it. Honestly, how is Vick ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson (5th)?

***

In Monday night's game, the Jets kicked the winning field goal with 14 seconds left, but they probably could have run the clock down so far that Miami wouldn't even get the ball back on a kickoff. Rather than running the clock down and calling timeout before the kick, the Jets could have committed a false start before their timeout, running an additional 10 seconds off the clock. You direct everyone to line up but not to move, except one person. That one person makes an obvious jump with one or two seconds left on the play clock.

League rules dictate that a false start at the end of either half results in a ten-second runoff on the game clock. You steal another ten seconds from the opponent. A field goal normally takes about four seconds, so in Monday's game, there would have been no time remaining after Mike Nugent's kick. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, this seems like a loophole that teams could exploit when they know they have an easy field goal at the end of a game.

On to the power rankings, brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. San Diego Chargers [1] — They have a league-high nine Pro Bowlers, and they're one win away from clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. I nearly moved the Ravens ahead of them, though, because San Diego's offense suddenly seems one-dimensional. Philip Rivers was one of those nine Chargers selected to the Pro Bowl, and I'm one of the people who voted for him, but he's been terrible the last two weeks, with a completion percentage under 34% and just 278 passing yards in both games combined. This is the wrong time for the passing game to start slumping.

2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — By far the NFL's best defense. The Ravens lead the NFL in points allowed, yards allowed, yards per play allowed, first downs allowed, sack yardage, interceptions, and defensive third down percentage. They're second in rushing defense, yards per carry allowed, opponents' completion percentage, and total takeaways. On the other side of the ball, the offense is good enough and seems to be getting better as the season goes on.

3. New Orleans Saints [3] — At least 30 points in four of their last five games, and six of the last eight. Drew Brees has struggled the last two weeks, but Reggie Bush continues to improve and may make a run at Offensive Rookie of the Year. Brees, meanwhile, is up against Peyton Manning for all-pro QB honors, and has even been mentioned as a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. I know Brees injured his shoulder at the end of last season, but I don't think that alone qualifies him for CBPOY. He didn't miss any games, and he was terrific last season. The same argument applies to Carson Palmer. I'd rather see CBPOY go to someone who didn't play well or missed games, like Jeff Garcia or Deuce McAllister or Warren Sapp, or maybe even that receiver in Dallas.

4. Philadelphia Eagles [15] — This is probably the biggest jump in the rankings that any team has gotten this season, and I'm not happy about it, but I'd rather admit I was wrong than keep making the same mistake. The Eagles are on fire, and they've been playing better every week since Jeff Garcia became the starter. Both Donovan McNabb and Garcia defeated their former teammate — that Cowboy receiver I just mentioned — this season. Speaking of which, so much for the notion that Garcia can't win without him.

5. New England Patriots [7] — In the second half of the season, no division has been as tough as the AFC East. Since their byes, AFC East teams are a combined 16-6 against non-division opponents. Those six losses came against the Colts (twice), Bears, Chargers, Titans, and Jaguars, so this isn't a just a product of beating up on the NFC North. With a win at Tennessee and a little help from their division foes in Miami, the Patriots can get the third seed in the AFC playoffs.

6. Chicago Bears [6] — I won't go into depth on this for the third straight week, but this defense is not the same without Tommie Harris, and Chicago can't simply rely on its defense any more. Houston's DeMeco Ryans will probably win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but Mark Anderson, who had two sacks and a forced fumble this week, has had a heck of a season.

7. Tennessee Titans [11] — Some people won't like seeing a team that's effectively been eliminated from playoff contention ranked here, but the Titans have won six straight, two more than any team that's not the Chargers. You could make a decent argument for ranking them as high as third. During the streak, Tennessee has beaten the Eagles, Colts, Jaguars, and Bills. Vince Young seems to be in one of those zones where a player just won't let his team lose. If that holds up against the Patriots in Week 17, the Titans, whom I ranked 32nd for several weeks early in the season, will finish with a winning record.

8. Buffalo Bills [9] — Couldn't finish the job against Tennessee, settling for five field goals — three of them under 30 yards — and blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead. Buffalo should probably use more of Willis McGahee and less of J.P. Losman in goal-to-go situations. The Bills' defense allowed 30 points for only the second time this season. Everyone is having trouble stopping Vince Young right now, but they probably could have held Travis Henry under 135 yards.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars [10] — I don't like inconsistent teams, and I don't like to move someone up after a loss, but I'll take the Jags, who on their best days are great, over a team like the Jets, who on their best days are pretty darn good. Next season, with Maurice Jones-Drew and their young receiving corps, plus a healthy Mike Peterson, the Jaguars figure to have a real chance at winning the AFC South. The bet here is that Jacksonville wins at Kansas City in Week 17.

10. New York Jets [14] — Tony Kornheiser's announcing has gotten a little better during the season, but he's still terrible. Kornheiser should not assume that just because he doesn't know any players on the Jets, that actual fans don't, either. One name every fan should know is Leon Washington's. After a few big games in the middle of the season, Washington saw fewer carries and his production dropped, but he looked great against Miami.

11. Cincinnati Bengals [5] — Outplayed the Broncos for most of the game, but they gave too much to Jay Cutler early, and too much to Denver's running backs late. Cincinnati was also -2 in turnovers, including two interceptions by Palmer. Part of the reason for Cincinnati's mini-slump is that Palmer's production has dropped sharply the last three games, during which he has averaged 30 fewer passing yards per game, with more interceptions than touchdowns and a 71.6 passer rating.

12. Dallas Cowboys [4] — There's a lot of potential here, but they're ice-cold. Dallas has two embarrassing losses in its last three games, along with an unimpressive victory over a mediocre Atlanta team. Tony Romo has a 68.3 passer rating for December, including seven interceptions and just four TDs. The Cowboys won't have a first-round bye, so Bill Parcells had better get things figured out quickly.

13. Indianapolis Colts [8] — Four straight road losses. The Colts started 9-0, but have dropped to 11-4. Indianapolis is 7-0 at home, so a first-round playoff win seems likely, but if Indy has to travel to San Diego or Baltimore in the divisional round, it's tough to see the Colts advancing. This run defense has allowed almost 400 yards more than the 31st-ranked team, including a career-high 153 for Ron Dayne this week.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers [13] — While the Browns struggle to rebuild, Baltimore is their biggest rival, and getting swept (by a combined margin of over 50 points) stings. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked a combined 14 times in those two losses. Roethlisberger also led the Steelers in rushing on Sunday, which isn't supposed to happen when you have a Pro Bowl running back. Pittsburgh should probably re-work its aging offensive line this offseason.

15. Denver Broncos [19] — Walt Coleman, the NFL's worst referee not named Jeff Triplette, did a nice job when he upheld Brandon Marshall's second-quarter sideline reception in the absence of indisputable visual evidence to the contrary. Later in the game, though, Coleman erred in upholding the spot of a punt ruled down at the one-yard-line, which should have been a touchback. Coleman's crew also called a questionable offside penalty to negate the onside kick recovered by Cincinnati, a potentially game-changing play. Officiating is a difficult job, but with regard to the replay system in particular, we have a right to expect that referees will get the calls right.

16. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — Bryant Gumbel is a refreshingly professional play-by-play announcer, but he's just not much of a football guy. On Saturday night, Gumbel assumed that Dick Vermeil, while he coached the Eagles, must have faced Christian Okoye during the latter's brief career in Kansas City. But Vermeil left coaching after the 1982 season, and Okoye didn't play in the NFL until 1987. That's like saying that Jimmy Johnson must have coached against Roethlisberger. Vermeil is a great analyst, but NFL Network might want to be careful about having him cover the Chiefs, whom he coached last season and is obviously still attached to.

17. Miami Dolphins [12] — Normally, pulling Joey Harrington is not a controversial decision. But with a lot of AFC teams rooting for Miami to beat the Jets, Nick Saban's half-time decision to replace Harrington with Cleo Lemon probably attracted some attention around the conference. Harrington, who had been 5-5 as a starter in Miami, may have played himself out of a job the last two weeks, but I'm not sure Saban would have yanked him if the Dolphins had still been alive for a playoff spot.

18. New York Giants [16] — Eli Manning had a terrible game by any measure, including his stats. But if you take away his 55-yard completion to Plaxico Burress, Little Manning was 8-of-24 for 19 yards and an interception. That'll make Giant fans nostalgic for the Danny Kanell Era. Insult to injury, this week all three players the Chargers drafted with the picks they got in exchange for Manning were selected to the Pro Bowl.

19. Seattle Seahawks [20] — Three straight losses, but at least they played with some heart this week, nearly upsetting the Chargers in Seattle. The Seahawks clinched their division despite the loss, and in the playoffs, it would probably be helpful if they protect Matt Hasselbeck, who has been sacked at least three times in every game of their current losing streak.

20. Atlanta Falcons [18] — Call it the curse of the dirty birds. Since Michael Vick flipped both of them to his home fans, the Falcons haven't won a game in Atlanta, going 3-5 there this season. Vick has played pretty well on the road, but in home games this year, Vick was worse in every major statistical category related to passing. His home passer rating of 67.2 is abysmal. I'm not a big fan of booing your own guys, but I can understand the frustration of Falcon fans with their quarterback.

21. Washington Redskins [21] — Probably should drop after they allowed 579 yards in an overtime loss to the Rams, but there's no one to move up, including St. Louis, which hasn't beaten a team with more than six wins since Week 1. Washington has somehow beaten the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints in the last eight weeks. The first-quarter injury to Shawn Springs was probably the difference in this week's game.

22. Arizona Cardinals [24] — Won three of the last four, all against division opponents. The NFC West is like Conference USA in college football, where there are decent teams, but no one that's going to beat your conference champion, and they won't win a lot of games that aren't against each other. Matt Leinart suffered a minor injury in the win against San Francisco, so Kurt Warner will start at San Diego in the season finale.

23. St. Louis Rams [26] — There's been a bit of an outcry about Brian Westbrook not making the Pro Bowl, and while Westbrook is a great player, I don't think he was one of the top three running backs in the NFC this season. Frank Gore was a no-brainer, and it's tough to argue against Tiki Barber. The third spot went to the Rams' Steven Jackson, who has more rushing yards, more receiving yards, and more touchdowns than Westbrook. Jackson has become a pretty special player, and he's earned his spot in Hawaii.

24. Green Bay Packers [27] — Through 13 games, hadn't held anyone under 14 points. Now they've done it two weeks in a row, against division opponents Detroit and Minnesota. The story of Thursday's game was the domination of both defensive lines over the opposing offensive lines, and no one was more dominant than Aaron Kampman. After a quiet November, Kampman has put himself back into all-pro discussions.

25. Carolina Panthers [28] — Protected Chris Weinke with run after run after run on offense. Carolina finished with 52 rushing attempts and only 10 pass plays, three of which resulted in sacks. Weinke ended the contest with only four completions for 32 yards, but Carolina running backs added 188 on the ground, and the Panthers broke a four-game losing streak.

26. Cleveland Browns [23] — Derek Anderson's four interceptions were actually a strategic move dictated by management. After what may have seemed a disappointing loss against the wretched Buccaneers, Cleveland now has a real shot at the third pick in April's draft. Sneaky Browns!

27. Minnesota Vikings [22] — Tarvaris Jackson may not be the answer Minnesota was looking for. Against Green Bay, Jackson was 10-of-20 for 50 yards and an interception (35.4 passer rating). He was also sacked three times. The Vikings managed only three first downs and 104 yards of offense. Their only points came on an interception return. That's about as badly as an NFL offense can perform.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [29] — Tim Rattay may not have played gloriously against Cleveland, but at least his team won, breaking a four-game skid and giving Tampa just its second victory in the last nine games. Linebacker Derrick Brooks, who had made nine consecutive Pro Bowls, will miss out this year for the first time in a decade.

29. Houston Texans [30] — Defeated the division rival Colts for the first time in franchise history, and didn't allow a sack for only the second time all season. Pass protection remains a problem here, but the Texans have actually allowed fewer sacks than seven teams this year.

30. San Francisco 49ers [25] — Four losses in their last five games, and if the Seahawks had come to play last Thursday, it would probably be five in a row. The extra rest — nine days instead of six — couldn't get the 49ers over the hump against Arizona. It's probably the first time all season that the Niners have lost a game they should have won. There are some decent young players here, but it's amazing how much this team has overachieved in 2006.

31. Detroit Lions [32] — As terrible as Detroit's season has been, there finally seems to be some progress in establishing the passing game. Jon Kitna has played well considering the circumstances, while Roy Williams and Mike Furrey give the Lions a nice pair of starting receivers, and a healthy Kevin Jones gives Detroit a viable running back. Now all the Lions need to fix is everything else.

32. Oakland Raiders [31] — Moved the ball more than usual on offense, but kept committing turnovers or settling for field goals. If they lose to the Jets by more than three touchdowns, the Raiders risk allowing twice as many points as they score this season. It would be a mistake — and a totally classless, unfair move — to fire Art Shell after just one season.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 8:37 PM | Comments (4)

The Fight Wasn't a Big Deal — For the NBA

The fight at Madison Square Garden isn't that big of a deal — at least in the NBA.

We've had a chance to let it settle in. We've pointed fingers and made our judgments. And sadly, the media is treating the fight between the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets as a "trend" story — NBA fights are a possibly increasing trend, they say. But they are missing the story.

Broadcast stations love great footage. A fight is just that — great footage with shock value. And because there is a shock value, it hides the real issue in this fight: the NBA is filled with immature players who never had the chance to grow up. The problem with early entrants in the NBA draft is not the lack of developed talent. It is the lack of maturity.

Go to a frat house at any college around the nation. Find a freshman guy and tell him that he has the talent to enter the real world. He will be working with guys just a few years older than him. Those guys are just like him — they were taken straight out of college after their freshmen year. Now place them in a Wall Street business office and tell them to work. Are they out of place?

The three players who played major roles in this fight are Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and Nate Robinson. These are the players who prolonged a fight that should have been a minor scuffle. Anthony left Syracuse University after one year, Smith skipped college, and Robinson left after his junior year.

One could argue that this is a small sample of players who did not finish school and that most early entrants of the draft turn out fine. I will argue a quick and easy formula: Money and Success + Immaturity = Trouble.

People don't go to college to simply earn a degree. People go to college to grow up. The NBA is no place to grow up.

Some of these guys get to the league and don't even know how to do their own laundry. They don't know how to manage their money and they don't know how to manage their time. They don't know how to restrain themselves and they don't know how to solve problems. In fact, I've heard stories of players who didn't know how to tip at a restaurant.

So while Anthony, Robinson, Smith and a handful of other players were throwing fists, the media didn't focus on the individuals. They focused the NBA's image. It's the easy thing to pick on, and with footage like that, this was way too easy.

The NBA won a small battle with the age-limit. In theory, I don't agree with the age limit. In practice, this age limit is the best thing that's happened to the NBA in a long time. If the NBA ever gets a rule like the NFL — a player must be three years out of high school — then the quality of the league will increase by leaps and bounds. It's just like the "real world." Employees shouldn't be hired based solely on talent. They should be hired based on maturity, attitude and, when it matters, potential. The "real world" isn't some imaginary place we all think we are at or are going to be at. It's the place that society has built in which certain actions are accepted and rejected.

But the NBA isn't like the "real world."

In the real world, when a highly-talented employee refuses to work with other employees, he or she is fired. In the NBA, they keep him around for a decade to see if he can carry a team. They embrace his talents and try to find other players who can work with him. His name is Allen Iverson.

In the real world, when there is a fight in the office, people are fired. In the NBA, people are fined, suspended and then they come back to the joy of their teammates.

And in the real world, people who aren't mature enough don't make it. They fail. In the NBA, if they can "ball," they get by.

So all things considered, this fight wasn't that big of a deal — at least in the NBA.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 8:17 PM | Comments (0)

December 23, 2006

A Holiday Wish For Santa Belichick

There were three moments in 2006 that cemented its place as the most surreal, eventful, and exhausting year of my life.

The first, and foremost, was my engagement to the love of my life — who, along with myself, is one of about seven admitted New Jersey Nets fans in America — while standing on an Ewok village-like tree platform in the middle of a national park in Vancouver.

The second was winning 52 free burritos by sleeping out in front of a suburban D.C. California Tortilla the night before it opened and being one of the first 10 people in line the following morning. About 16 burritos into it, my mouth remains happy; my digestive tract, not-so-much...

And the third was having my first book, "Glow Pucks & 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History," published by the good people of Taylor Trade back in April, sending me on a whirlwind tour of media appearances and pathetic weekly whoring of my silly little book in this very column space.

Writing "Glow Pucks" was an experience; promoting the book was an education. I consider myself a pretty confident and unflappable guy, but when you're sitting across from Dana Jacobson on the set of "Cold Pizza" after having made small talk with Bert Sugar in the green room for the last 30 minutes, and a giant TV monitor swoops in from the ceiling like a killer mechanical squid from "The Matrix" five seconds before you're live on the air ... I think I nearly messed myself.

I owe all of you a debt of gratitude and thanks for supporting my work and, in many ways, making me a stronger writer through years of interaction. This column, entering its 10th year in 2007, has opened more doors than Trump's limo driver. What started as the unfiltered ranting of a disgruntled hockey fan has morphed into the unfiltered ranting of a disgruntled hockey fan who's published on over a dozen different websites and magazines, gets to be a snarking head on ESPN Classic, and wrote — by my humble estimation — the most well-reviewed bathroom book in the history of sports journalism. Not bad for a class clown from Central Jersey.

Seriously, it's been an honor, and an unforgettable year. But there's one last thing that would push 2006 from "surreal" to "absurd," and I'm going to need some help for it to happen...

AN OPEN LETTER TO BILL BELICHICK

"To the love child of Gollum and Charles Grodin" ... uh, "To Billy Whines-a-lot" ... er, I mean, "To the Esteemed Coach Belichick of the Deposed World Champions From the Great Non-State of New England":

I come to you with my hat in my hand, crawling on my miserable knees. To apologize. To pay my respects. And to ask an enormous favor.

Whoa, wait — don't dismiss me so quickly! Granted, I've called you a surly little prima donna in the past. Okay, I may have referred to your style of dress as the NFL version of Derek Zoolander's "Derelicte." And, on occasion, I may have suggested that you and the Patriots can "derelicte my balls."

But all of that comes from a place of bitterness, of despair. I'm a New York Jets fan. You remember us, right Coach? A pathetic lot that watches our team play in someone else's stadium, and has seen it fail in an unbelievable number of ways: from last-second losses to drafting Ken O'Brien ahead of Dan Marino and Blair Thomas ahead of Junior Seau to hiring Rich Kotite, who quite frankly makes you look like a GQ model. A collection of blue-collar fans that annually pins its hopes on a team determined to break our hearts; and on a quarterback who has the arm strength of Nicole Richie and is so fragile that he could conceivably separate his shoulder with a hearty sneeze.

Now do you remember us?

Look, this is my mea culpa. I'm like Michael Richards: I've identified the source of my rage, only I didn't need therapy and a sit down with Al Sharpton to find it. All of these years of bad memories and Sunday despair have contributed to my intense jealous hatred of the Patriots and their postseason glory.

This weekend, Coach, you could put me on the road to recovery.

The Jets have two games left: at Miami on Christmas night and Oakland at home. They are 8-6, in a four-way dance for the two wildcard slots in the AFC with Denver, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville. Thanks to Peyton Manning's laser rocket arm last Monday, the easiest path to an improbable playoff berth for Gang Green is to win out and have two of those three teams lose at least once. For the first time, the Football Gods have smiled upon us and Cincy faces the Broncos this weekend, all but guaranteeing a loss for either of them.

Here's where you come in, Coach. For one weekend, Jets fans will don the red, white, and blue of Patriots Nation. Because we need your boys to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville for us.

It's not implausible that you might win. The Jags were sent reeling last week, and the Pats looked like world champions. Plus, you still need a win in order to clinch the AFC East; two Patriots losses and two Jets wins, and the division title slips to the Meadowlands. You don't want that to happen, do you, Coach?

Yes, I know it's asking a lot: Helping out a franchise you despise, and a coach in Eric Mangini whose hand you won't even shake after a game. This silly rivalry of ours has gotten to the point where some paranoid Jets fans actually believe you might throw the Jacksonville game just to spite us and then beat Vince Young the following week for the division title; boy, that's some crazy conspiracy theory! Who are these freaks?

(Wyshynski leaves to return his copy of "JFK" to Blockbuster and check his home phones for wiretaps.)

Sorry, Coach ... I'm back. You know, there was a time when I wouldn't have written this letter, because the sports fanatic in me would have thought it bad karma to do so. This is the same sports fanatic that used to believe that drinking pink lemonade while watching a New Jersey Devils game actually affected the outcome; the same fanatic who believed, during one season, that every time P.M. Dawn's "Set Adrift on Memory Bliss" came on MTV during the commercial break of a New York Rangers game, they'd lose (true, if in hindsight completely insane, story).

But I'm willing to risk jinxing the Jets in order to reach out to you, oh sweatshirted genius of all things football. Please do your part and beat those Jaguars. It will go a long way to repairing our damaged relationship — unless we meet in the playoffs, in which case you and that horse-toothed quarterback of yours can "derelicte my balls" — and, more importantly, will give the Jets and their fans a wonderful and completely frightening Christmas gift: controlling their own playoff destiny.

That's quite a Christmas miracle, considering that the season began with a rookie coach, a star running back on injured reserve and a quarterback so fragile that he could conceivably dislocate his spine by breaking wind. As a Jets fan, 8-6 with the potential for a playoff berth is beyond any predictions I had for this season, so I suppose I should be joyful in this blessed time of year.

That is until the Pats beat the Jags, the Bengals beat the Broncos, and the Jets beat Miami ... before losing to Oakland in the Meadowlands to end the season.

Because, Coach, if there's any common ground we can find between us, it's that the New York Jets, until proven otherwise, are always going to be the New York Jets. Which means that Jets fans, until proven otherwise, will expect nothing less than heartbreak from the biggest C-teases in New York sports.

Good luck and Merry Christmas,

Greg

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 8:36 PM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2006

Dressed For Success: Old, Reliable Tucker

We all have that one shirt hanging in our closets or folded in our dressers. You know the one; the go-to piece of clothing you can always rely on to make a good impression. Maybe we have newer, flashier clothes, but we can always count on a solid contribution from the old standby.

For me, the go-to-guy is a button-down black dress shirt. I can always dress it up with a nice pair of pants or play it casual with some broken-in jeans. It has stood up to years of washing and outlasted many more highly-touted articles.

So what under the college hoops sun brought up this nugget of my personal wardrobe minutia? Wisconsin's Alando Tucker.

Tucker should remind us of all the things we love about that dependable old shirt. He's been around as long as we can remember (try 2002 for Tucker's freshman year). He's pre-historic by college hoops standards. Tucker actually squared off with Dwyane Wade when the Badgers and Golden Eagles fought the Cheese State challenge in 2002. Compared to the youth of most stars in the NCAA this year, he might as well have been an assistant to Dr. Naismith.

Tucker has also been remarkably consistent. In his three-plus full seasons with Wisconsin (Tucker red-shirted 2003-04 with a foot injury), he has averaged at least 12 points and five rebounds a game. Heck, he even led the Big Ten in offensive rebounds way back when as a true freshman. But those facts didn't stop the media from anointing Ohio State as the preseason favorite to win the conference this year.

Sure, Tucker was named the preseason player of the year, but let's not kid ourselves. It wasn't Tucker, the veteran with a body of work spanning dozens of games, that Dick Vitale was comparing to the greatest players to step on the college hardwood. Tucker may be a half foot shorter and a universe of hype quieter than Greg Oden, but the neglect his resume is getting is criminal. While we may gawk at flashier shirts in storefronts, deep down we all know we can count on the trusty time-tested shirt.

And that brings up maybe the most impressive thing about Tucker. As he's ascended to the role of senior leader for the Badgers, Tucker has added another element to his game. While he maintained an assistant-to-turnover ratio of .8 in his first three seasons, this season Tucker has increased that number to 1.15. Be it jeans or khakis, Mike Wilkinson or Brian Butch, it is Tucker's complementary skills that make him so valuable.

So all of the magazines and analysts that want to drool over potential can have their unproven prospects, no matter how many stars or what color chip they're rated as. Sure, a guy like Oden brings instant credibility to a program. But it's time to stop overlooking talent when we see it just because we've seen it. Tucker may not be exciting and new, but we know what we'll get out of him. Watching him quietly dominate Pittsburgh by controlling the game's tempo Saturday was predictably remarkable.

So if we love that kind of reliable performance out of our wardrobes, why not our college basketball stars?

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 6:39 PM | Comments (0)

December 21, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Minnesota @ Green Bay

What's the biggest difference between Minnesota quarterback Brad Johnson and Green Bay signal caller Brett Favre? Well, besides about 250 touchdown passes, a reservation in the Hall of Fame, three MVPs, and a gig hawking heartburn medication, not much.

"Those are all valid differences," says Johnson, "but the biggest difference is this: I get booed out of the Metrodome, and I get benched. If Favre got booed at Lambeau, he wouldn't get benched, and the unfortunate fan or fans who booed him would suffer the disgrace of experiencing a foam Cheesehead suppository. I don't get that kind of respect in Minnesota."

Despite throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns, Favre and the Packers beat the Lions, 17-9. Favre's three picks moved him into second place on the all-time interceptions thrown list, with 270. He needs seven interceptions to reach George Blanda's mark of 277.

"I'll definitely be back next year," says Favre. "I want that record. [George] Blanda played until he was about 46 to get that record. Big deal. I'll do it before 38. If things work out, I should be able to break that record and Marino's touchdown passes record next year, hopefully in the same game."

The Packers will employ the same game plan that the Jets used last week to defeat the Vikes: don't bother running on the NFL's No. 1 rushing defense; throw the ball, then throw it some more. Who's going to stop them? Fred Smoot?

"We're playing Green Bay?" asks Smoot. "A 'bay?' That means water's probably nearby, right? Sweet!"

Favre torches a distracted Smoot for a 63-yard score to Greg Jennings.

Green Bay wins, 20-14.

Kansas City @ Oakland

What's worse than starting Aaron Brooks as your quarterback?

"Umm, letting Randy Moss give a pep talk on the importance of effort while furiously picking out his afro?" asks Art Shell. "I've done that."

Not what I had in mind, Art. I'm thinking nothing is worse than Brooks as your starter than Andrew Walter as your backup. Actually, check that. That's not worse than Raiders' owner Al Davis making a public appearance just to let everyone know he was "still alive."

"Hey, that's one more public appearance than I've made this year," says Randy Moss. "But it is frightening when Al appears, especially when, like me, you think he's been dead for years. I thought I'd seen a ghost. Here's a little advice, Al. If you're going to pull a stunt like that, don't do it during a full moon. And if you're going to rise out of a coffin as your 'public appearance,' try not to make it so creepy."

The Chiefs lost 20-9 in San Diego, failing to generate a touchdown in a must-win game to maintain any serious hopes of a wildcard spot. The Chargers sacked Trent Green six times and held Larry Johnson to 84 yards rushing. The loss left the Chiefs at 7-7 and in last place among 7-7 AFC teams vying for a wildcard position.

"There's no quit in us," says Herman Edwards, "and I'm sure there's no quit in the Raiders, with the exception of Randy Moss. I'm actually looking forward to seeing the Black Hole in the Christmas spirit. I hear their nativity scene featuring costumed fans was described by the local newspaper as a 'blasphemous and heretical delight.' The guy dressed as Darth Vader as the Virgin Mary? Brilliant! And the dude with the shoulder pads and skeleton mask as Joseph? Great casting. Aaron Brooks and Andrew Walter as goats? Fantastic! Those Black Holers really know how to spread Christmas cheer and mayhem."

Do the Raiders have anything to play for? Only draft position. Right now, they are tied with Detroit with the worst record in the NFL. Even if the Raiders end up drafting after the Lions, it will be just like the number one pick. It's not like they'd want who the Lions pick, anyway. That'll be a favor from former Raider Matt Millen.

Larry Johnson rushes for 163 yards and two touchdowns.

Kansas City wins, 23-13.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Baltimore has officially clinched the division title, and officially humiliated the Steelers 27-0 in their last meeting in Week 12. The Ravens are playing with hopes of eventually securing a first-round playoff bye, while Pittsburgh needs a win just to keep their slim playoff aspirations alive. Needless to say, when these to rivals clash, emotions will be high, the hitting will be hard, Brian Billicks's nose will still be big, Bill Cowher's chin will still be freakishly prominent, and the trash-talking will be entertaining.

"Joey Porter is just like his pit bulls," says Ray Lewis. "He needs a muzzle. Doesn't he know this is 2006? He can't go spouting politically incorrect smack talk. It's okay to talk trash, but when doing so, make sure you don't offend any race, creed, color, gender, or lifestyle."

"Damn, is Ray Lewis giving me lessons on jaw-jacking etiquette?" ask Porter. "I'm Joey Porter. I made the rules. And the rules are: there are no rules. Smack talk is under a 'no disqualification, insults count anywhere' format. If I feel like 'outing' any member of the Ravens like I did to Kellen Winslow, then I'll do it. And if I see Steve McNair's hand palm-up on the turf, I'll step on it, and it won't be an accident."

The last time these two met, the Ravens sacked Ben Roethlisberger nine times. That has to weigh heavily on the mind of the Steeler quarterback. After all, there's nothing more frightening that the thought of a Raven coming at you with bad intentions.

Baltimore wins, 19-14.

Carolina @ Atlanta

In last Saturday's 38-28 loss to the Cowboys, Michael Vick broke Bobby Douglas' NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback, and kicker Morten Anderson became the league's all-time leading scorer. But all of that was overshadowed by another record: the $35,000 levied against Terrell Owens for spitting in the face of DeAngelo Hall, the highest fine ever for a spitting incident.

"They actually keep records on that?" asks Hall. "Wow! My face is in the record book. I think it's time to break out that visor. But isn't it amazing that T.O. didn't get suspended for this. Come on. If Randy Moss would have done it, he'd be gone for a game. Of course, Randy Moss would have never scored two touchdowns on me. What's $35,000 to Owens? I'll tell you what it is. It's chump change. T.O. is a chump. Go ahead an flag me for illegal hands to the face, 'cause the next time I see him, I'm going to slap him upside the noggin."

The Panthers closed shop in an embarrassing 37-3 home loss to the Steelers. Chris Weinke started for the second straight game in the place of Jake Delhomme, out with an injured thumb. The Panthers still have a chance at the postseason, but that happening would likely require time travel.

"If I could go back in time," says John Fox, "I would go back to week 1 and announce my retirement. I guess it's probably too late to call in that thumb whisperer to heal Jake, but it's not too late to call in that goon to make that sprain a complete break."

Atlanta wins, 24-17.

After the game, Jim Mora jokingly announces that he's going to Disneyworld, then gets hammered in the media and by Disneyworld, who didn't authorize him to use their name.

Chicago @ Detroit

The Bears clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in truly unspectacular fashion with a 34-31 overtime win over the Buccaneers in Chicago. This time, the weak link was the fearsome Chicago defense, which surrendered 21 fourth quarter points before Robbie Gould hit the game-winning 25-yard field goal.

"If there was a defensive rating for the fourth quarter," says Rex Grossman, "I'd say it would be around 1.3, or less. Usually, our defense swarms around the ball like the FBI around Tank Johnson's house. Not on Sunday. Our defense was as soft on the Buc's offense as the pawn shop was in asking for Tank's paperwork. But, on the bright side, we've got home-field, which didn't seem to scare the Bucs. So I doubt it will scare a playoff team."

Seven Bears were selected to the Pro Bowl; the Lions had none selected. That's a difference of seven, which also sounds like a good margin of victory.

Chicago wins, 20-13.

Indianapolis @ Houston

Four interceptions by David Carr spelled doom for the Texans in Foxboro as the Patriots blasted Houston, 40-7. The Texans lacked punch on offense, something that the Saints and Titans don't lack, for some reason.

"Here we go again," says a dejected Gary Kubiak. "Hasn't everyone criticized our drafting of Mario Williams ahead of Reggie Bush, Vince Young, and that guy from Hofstra drafted in the seventh round? Look, give the guy a chance. Has anyone really sat down and watched what he does? He doesn't play offense, so he can't score. We've added a new feature to our website, called 'The Mario Williams Watch' to track him. Last week's result was the same as the previous fourteen weeks: 'still no sign of him.'"

The Colts wrapped up the AFC South division crown without even playing; the Jaguars' loss to the Texans last Sunday clinched it for the Colts. Just for good measure, though, the Colts beat the Bengals 34-18 on Monday night. Peyton Manning threw three touchdown passes to Marvin Harrison, from one, three, and four yards.

"Marvin's such a crafty route runner," says Manning. "On all three of those TDs, he fooled the cornerback into thinking he was going deep. Anyway, I just want to offer some words of encouragement to the Texans. If Williams doesn't pan out as a good draft pick, it won't be the worst pick ever. That would be Ryan Leaf taken second, right after me, in 1998. I'm still kind of offended that he was taken that close to me."

Manning throws for three scores and the Colts win, 30-17.

New England @ Jacksonville

Tom Brady overcame the pain of his breakup with actress Bridget Moynahan with an efficient, mistake-free 16-for-23, 109-yard performance in the Patriots' 40-7 win over the Texans. Brady threw two touchdown passes, then gave way to backup Matt Cassel, and 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde cleaned up.

"Don't worry, it was an amicable breakup with Bridget," says Brady, "meaning, there was no sex video involved. I've sent Vinny over to her place to pickup my things. We don't call Vinny 'The Closer,' for nothing. Whether he's putting the finishing touches on a breakup, or entering the game for four consecutive kneel-downs, Vinny's the man. It's amazing that he's been able to amass such impressive passing totals despite playing much of his career before the invention of the forward pass."

As they are notorious for doing, the Jaguars followed their huge win over Indianapolis with a 24-17 loss to the Titans. The Titans returned three David Garrard turnovers for touchdowns, then later pitched in to buy Garrard dinner.

"We've been known to play down to our competition," says Jack Del Rio, "especially if it's the Houston Texans. We realize that to beat the Patriots, it will require our best effort, plus a little extra. That's why we've obtained audio from the Miami Dolphins of Brady's breakup with Moynahan."

What Jaguar team will show up? What Jack Del Rio will show up? Will it be the casually, yet crisply-dressed Del Rio, or the suit-wearing 'corporate' Del Rio? Del Rio foregoes the suit, but the fired-up Jags show up in their all-black uniforms, highlighted by several colorful rhinestones installed by Del Rio himself and his Bedazzler. The Jags then warm up to the "Electric Side," thereby ending the accusations that they are "mentally weak." David Garrard throws for 150 yards and a touchdown, and Jacksonville wins, 20-13.

New Orleans @ N.Y. Giants

The Saints clinched the division title in true NFC South fashion — by losing. All four NFC South teams lost last week, and the Saints only managed 10 points against the Redskins after dropping 42 on the Cowboys in Week 14.

"You know, I could blame the players," says Sean Payton, "and they could blame me. But we all choose to take the high road, and blame Tom Coughlin. Wow! That's liberating! I can see why Giants' players do that. Statistically, we are the No. 1-ranked passing team, but New York is pretty darn good at passing, as well. Passing blame, that is."

Despite losing to the Eagles 36-22, the Giants still hold the sixth position in the wide-open race for the two NFC wildcard positions. As they say often in football, the Giants hold their destiny in their own hands; if they win out, they're in. But this in the NFC; destiny has been in several teams' hands, and more often than not, it has been dropped.

"I can relate to that," says Plaxico Burress. "Destiny has been in my hands before and I dropped her. But don't blame me. Blame the baby oil. Anyway, that's beside the point. We know we have to be motivated, and if we can't get motivated for this, then we should be shot, or Tom Coughlin should be fired. We're fighting to get in the playoffs, and it's Tiki Barber's final home game. And it may be the last game before trans fats in fast foods are banned here. We've got to win for ourselves first, then for Tiki, then for the trans fats."

With the Saints down 23-16 late in the fourth, New York Knicks coach Isiah Thomas is seen whispering something to Drew Brees, warning him to stay out of the middle of the field. Like a Knicks player, Brees wisely ignores Thomas' advice and later tosses a 25-yard TD pass to Marques Colston. Tie score. Then, out of nowhere, Denver Nuggets coach and UNC alum George Karl, at the behest of former North Carolina head coach Dean Smith, viciously clotheslines Thomas. If you recall, Thomas lead the Indiana Hoosiers to the 1981 NCAA championship over Smith's Tar Heels. In the confusion and hysteria that follows, Eli Manning drives the Giants downfield and hits Burress for the game-winning score.

New York wins, 30-23.

Tampa Bay @ Cleveland

The Bucs took the heavily-favored Bears to the limit last Sunday, erasing a 24-3 third quarter deficit before falling in overtime 34-31. Starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski was pulled in the second quarter in favor of Tim Rattay, who rallied the Bucs with three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

"I've seen more quarterbacks in my coaching career than release dates for Guns 'N Roses Chinese Democracy," says Gruden. "Anyway, I'm not so sure I want to take the field if those nasty rumors I hear about Kellen Winslow II are true. If those accusations are found to be true, the ramifications could shake the moral fabric of this league, and this very nation, to the very core. It's appalling, degenerative, and reprehensible. I pray that it is not true. Please, oh please, someone tell me that Kellen Winslow II is not the son of the original Kellen Winslow."

Sorry, Coach. It's true. Kellen II is the son of Kellen I.

"Dear God."

The banged up Browns may be at home, but they don't have a single Pro Bowl representative on their roster. The Bucs have Ronde Barber, who intercepts Derek Anderson twice, and Tampa Bay edges the Browns, 19-17.

Tennessee @ Buffalo

Despite managing only a paltry five first downs against the Jaguars, the Titans won 24-17 on the strength of three defensive touchdowns, all as the result of David Garrard turnovers.

"Believe it or not," says Jeff Fisher, "we work on returns of quarterback turnovers in practice. Why do you think Kerry Collins is still on the roster? Plus, if questions ever arise about the ingredients in a certain mixed drink, Kerry is the go-to guy on that, as well."

The Bills shut out the Dolphins 21-0 in Buffalo, as J.P. Losman threw for three touchdowns. The Bills improved to 7-7, and, by virtue of their 5-5 conference record, are top-ranked among the 7-7 teams in the playoff hunt.

"Things are looking up," say Dick Jauron. "Earlier this year, we were 2-5 and people were questioning the Bills' decision to hire me. Now, we're 7-7 and in the playoff picture. Plus, I just got my copy of Time magazine and see that I've been named 'Person of the Year.'"

Like the Bills, the Titans are 7-7 and needing two wins and lots of help to make the playoffs. Regardless of what happens Sunday, neither team is likely to get in. Tennessee hosts New England in Week 17, while the Bills go to Baltimore, and the Patriots and Ravens will likely be playing for playoff seeding.

J.P. Losman throws for one score and rushes for another, and the Bills' offense holds the Titans' defense scoreless.

Buffalo wins, 23-17.

Washington @ St. Louis

In their last two games, the Rams have endured the extremes of partisan crowds. In Week 14, they faced Chicago in the Edward Jones Dome and saw the cheers of the home fans drowned out by a large Bears contingent that made the trip to St. Louis. And, last week, the Rams endured one of the most hostile environments in sports, Oakland's Black Hole, where the restless natives of Raider Nation hurled all sorts of projectiles at the visiting Rams, including batteries, rocks, bottles, billiard balls, prosthetic limbs, and season tickets.

"Luckily, they all missed," says Rams running back Steven Jackson. "Just like their quarterbacks, Raider fans can't hit a target, either."

The Rams survived and forced five Raiders turnovers on their way to a 20-0 shutout. Now, they'll face a Redskins' team intent on finishing the season with three-straight wins. Washington shocked the Saints 16-10 in New Orleans behind a defense that held the high-powered Saints' offense to 19 points below their season average.

"I attribute this win solely to the coaching of Joe Gibbs," says Redskins quarterback Jason Collins. "The man's a genius. He's got three Super Bowl rings and a Nextel Cup championship. That alone gives us an edge over first-year coach Scott Linehan of the Rams."

"Hey, don't sell me so short," says Linehan. "I'm the proud owner of a mood ring and a Tony Stewart t-shirt."

That's great, Scott. I don't think you're quite ready to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, unless it's one you might find in a specially-marked box of Kellogg's Froot Loops.

Ladell Betts, with 140 yards and two touchdowns, outduels Pro Bowl running back Jackson, and the Redskins win, 24-23.

Arizona @ San Francisco

Believe it or not, the 49ers have a chance to win the NFC West. After upsetting the Seahawks 24-14 in Seattle last Thursday, San Fran can take the division crown by winning their final two games, provided the Seahawks lose their final two. Then, at 8-8, the 49ers would host a wildcard playoff game against a lower-seeded team.

"That's what I love about the 'Mild, Mild West,'" says Alex Smith. "On any given day, the top team in this division can lose to any other team in this division, except the Rams. Also, only in the West, can a team such as the 49ers, at 6-8, remain in the hunt for not only the playoffs, but the division crown."

Arizona and quarterback Matt Leinart hope to put a damper on San Fran's playoff hopes with a win on Sunday. The Cards had their two-game winning streak snapped by the Broncos, as Jay Cutler out-dueled Leinart in a 37-20 Denver win.

"Sure, Cutler got the best of me," says Leinart, "but only on the field. I guarantee the lady he took home on Sunday didn't look as good as any one of the three I did."

The Cardinals beat the 49ers 34-27 in Week 1. This time, with a few extra days of preparation, San Fran avenges that loss. Pro Bowler Frank Gore rushes for 151 yards and two scores.

49ers win, 30-24.

Cincinnati @ Denver

Last Sunday in Arizona, Jay Cutler threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns, with only one interception. With every start, the rookie is gaining confidence and improving his decision-making skills. Much of that credit belongs to Jake Plummer, who gracefully accepted Mike Shanahan's decision to bench Plummer for Cutler four weeks ago.

"Jake has always been a professional," says Shanahan. "He's offered unlimited advice and tutelage to Jay since we made the change. Luckily, Jay hasn't listened to a word of it. Jake's never complained about anything. In fact, I've never seen him more focused on his PAT and field goal holding duties. He's taken that skill to a new level. There's no way Cutler will take that job from him."

The hot Bengals were cooled off considerably by the Colts last Monday, falling 34-16 as Peyton Manning threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns. Cincy had given up only 17 points combined in their previous three games.

"I thought our defensive execution was criminal," says Marvin Lewis. "We didn't give up the big play, but we did give up more plays in the 8-14 yard range than any team in history. But credit the Colts for a masterful game plan and good defensive effort. Our red zone efficiency was only 25%. We successfully made it into the end zone like a Bengal successfully passes a DWI checkpoint — not very well. It was nice of Colts management, though, to paint a white line along our path leading into the stadium. But boy, stadium security sure is tight here. They made me recite my A-B-C's backwards before they'd let me in."

Cutler throws for two short touchdowns, and the Broncos prevail, 27-21.

San Diego @ Seattle

Is LaDainian Tomlinson the most polite and humble athlete in the history of professional sports?

"I can't speak for Muhammed Ali, Randy Moss, or Michael Jordan," says Shaun Alexander, "but do I really need to? Anyway, the answer is 'yes.' L.T. is the most polite and humble athlete in professional sports. Do you want proof? Then look at this sympathy card I received from L.T. the other day. It says: 'Dear Shaun, My deepest sympathies for absolutely destroying your touchdown record. Regards, L.T. (NFL record-holder).' What a guy."

What's the secret to beating the Chargers? No team has done it since the Chiefs in week 7. Mike Holmgren thinks he has the solution.

"It's simple," says Holmgren. "You've got to take L.T. out of the game and make Philip Rivers beat you. That's quite obvious. But how do you do it? Kidnapping is a federal offense, so that's out, although the Bengals could seriously consider that option. Forcing L.T. to witness a mob hit and go into the witness protection program could work, but the logistics involved in making that happen are immense. The best option is to load up the box with eight, ten, twelve, or fourteen men and dare the Chargers to run into that. Another option is to hasten the onset of something bound to rear its ugly head soon — 'Martyball.'"

Matt Hasselbeck can do something Trent Green cannot — throw on the run. The Seattle game plan calls for roll-outs away from Shawne Merriman and prayers that Jerramy Stevens can catch the ball.

Seattle clinches the NFC West with a 23-21 win.

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Okay, stop me if the drama is too much to take. Terrell Owens faces his former team, the Eagles, and quarterback Jeff Garcia, who was Owens' original fall guy back when their relationship soured in San Francisco. And Owens was just fined $35,000 for spitting in DeAngelo Hall's face last week in Atlanta, an act for which Owens originally apologized, then later said was an "accident." On top of all that, there's the issue with the locker room "snitch" in Dallas, who, apparently, tattles on things T.O. doesn't want you to know. Now, can things get anymore controversial?

"I haven't seen this much drama since the Ewings controlled the Dallas oil fields back in the '80s," says Cowboys owner, the smarmy Jerry Jones. "Those Ewings were a ruthless bunch, not only on the oil fields, but on the 3-on-3 basketball courts as well. Bobby ran the point, J.R. was the meanest 10 gallon hat-wearing power forward in the game, and the center, Patrick, was unstoppable. But, as far as T.O. goes, I'm just glad Deion 'Prime Time' Sanders told Hall to 'cowboy up' and accept T.O.'s apology. And I think the Redskins' Sean Taylor served as a special envoy in the deal, as well."

To show his support for Owens, Bill Parcell's names him captain for the game. Representing the Eagles, Garcia wheels out McNabb, and the referee asks them to call it in the air.

"Punk!" yells McNabb.

"Jerk!" Garcia calls.

The Eagles win the toss. It's a tight contest with several lead changes, and with the Cowboys down 24-20 and driving late in the fourth quarter, Tony Romo calls T.O.'s number. Owens gets open with his patented new move, the fake sneeze, and beats Sheldon Brown to the corner. Bless you! And touchdown!

Dallas wins, 27-24.

N.Y. Jets @ Miami

In game two of the Christmas doubleheader, the Jets try to remain in position in the AFC wildcard race. Right now, New York is last among the four 8-6 teams (Denver, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville being the others) battling for the two wildcard tickets. The Broncos host the Bengals, so one of those teams will fall to 8-7. And the Jaguars host the Patriot, leaving the Jets in the awkward position of pulling for their AFC East rivals.

"If the Jaguars win, great," says Eric "The Ice" Mangini. "If the Pats win, that's just fine, too. I wish New England nothing but the best. Let me rephrase that. The best I can wish for New England is nothing."

In their 21-0 loss to the Bills, Joey Harrington was 5-17 for 20 yards with two interceptions before being banished to the Island of Misfit Toys early in the fourth quarter. Actually, he was benched, but even the Island of Misfit Toys wouldn't accept a quarterback with a zero passer rating.

"How on Earth does one get a zero passer rating?" asks Nick Saban.

Here's how, Nick. Head south until you reach the Antarctic Circle. Keep south until you reach the Mendoza Line. Then, find Rex Grossman. Once you do, shake his hand and tell him he can go. One thing's for sure: the Harrington Line will never be crossed.

Before the game, the Jets are visited in the locker room by the jolly, red-nosed man himself, Joe Namath, who predicts a 16-7 Jets win over the Colts. Namath then jogs out of the room, wearing only panty hose and a full length fur coat, with his right index finger held high. You can't argue with greatness.

Jets win, 16-7.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:19 PM | Comments (0)

Fifth Annual Tennis Christmas Wish List

Well, it's that time of year again — time for my annual Tennis Christmas Wish List. Saint Nick was pretty good to me last year, and most of my wish list materialized. Hopefully, he'll be just as generous this year:

10. An injury-free year for Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin-Hardenne, Mary Pierce, Serena Williams, and Venus Williams and an overall injury-free year for all the women on the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour. I know I'm not the only one asking for this, especially after a 2006 season that was riddled with tournament pullouts by the game's top players. I'll ask Santa for a special favor to let the rule changes instituted by the WTA Tour work as planned.

9. A chance to play Speedminton® with U.S. Open champion Maria Sharapova. Speedminton® is a great game that combines tennis, squash, racquetball, and badminton and it is a great alternative when you want to keep your tennis skills sharp when you are not near a court. Maria endorses Speedminton® and I hear she might just be the best player on the planet.

8. A men's star to rise from the U.S. James Blake had an incredible year in 2006, culminating in his appearance in the ATP Masters Cup final before he was embarrassed by the reigning men's champ, Roger Federer. Somewhere out there there has to be an American who can compete one-on-one with Roger. Santa, please give all of us here in the states a player to wave our flag behind.

7. A major tournament win for Jelena Jankovic. Jelena had a great run at the U.S. Open and nearly made the final. She is fun, personable, and one heck of a tennis player. She showed that she can compete on the world's biggest stage. Here's to hoping the man in the red suit brings her something more in 2007.

6. More tennis on "regular" TV. There was a ton of tennis coverage on the boob tube in 2006, but most of it was on higher cable channels or on the Tennis Channel. The U.S. Open series tournaments over the summer were barely on television, and in poor time slots most of the time. Tennis needs to get more regular exposure. Santa, can you bring more tournaments to Channel 2, 4, and 7?

5. Equal prize money at Wimbledon for the women. I have long been a huge supporter of the women's tour, and the parity at the top of the WTA Tour at this time guarantees a great tournament at just about every stop. England and the All England Lawn Tennis Club love tradition. Maybe it's time for them to start a new one. Father Christmas, please stop by the AELTC and spread your magic, please!

4. A first place award from the US Tennis Writer's Association for Marcia Frost. Marcia is the hardest working tennis writer, bar none, and incredibly talented. Not only is she the queen of college tennis, but she is also the inspiration (and perspiration) behind CollegeandJuniorTennis.com and CollegeTennisConnect.com. Her writing appears in USTA magazine, Tennis Life, and Racquet Sports Industry, to name a few. This year, I'm hoping the jolly little Saint Nick will give Marcia another trip to Miami, and this time with the blue ribbon.

3. An interview with Maria Kirilenko, Ana Ivanovic, and Marta Domachowska. These are the three rising stars of the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour and this year they will hopefully grant me an interview for some great columns. Maybe there will be a note under my tree from them along with an invitation to tag along with them at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open.

2. A banner year for The Andre Agassi Foundation. Andre's playing days may be over, but his contributions to the youth and the sport will continue through his foundation and charter school. Tennis needs ambassadors like Andre, and hopefully this holiday season will find his foundation able to do even greater work in the community then in all the years previous.

1. Finally, pearls for my sweet friend Jenn P. from BeMyPearl.com. Not only are the pearls the best quality around, but they are designed by WTA workhorse Alina Jidkova. Alina and her partner, Sascha Ghods, launched BeMyPearl.com this fall with a spectacular showing at the ATP/WTA Glam Slam 2006, and the buzz keeps growing. I'm not at liberty to reveal all the stars who have already purchased sets from Alina, but WTA stars Elena Dementieva and Nadia Petrova have, and rumor has it some men's tour players have for their girlfriends, as well. Alina is at home recovering from a recent injury, and although we won't get to see her on the court for a little while, we can still experience the same work ethic and talent through her pearl creations.

From me and the whole gang here at Sports Central, happy holidays!

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 8:30 PM | Comments (0)

December 20, 2006

A Christmas Miracle Wasted?

"Barbaro is not dead." Or, "How Barbaro saved Christmas." Perhaps a last-minute decision will change it to "Barbaro: Why he's better than all of us." I'm still working on the name of the Barbaro Christmas special as I figure it's only a few more years until it debuts, inevitably replacing Rudolf, Frosty, and Charlie Brown as the greatest Christmas story since the birth of Christ.

After all, Charlie Brown may have shown us the true meaning of Christmas, Rudolf may have inspired underdogs everywhere, and Frosty made kids everywhere believe that invisible friends were an adequate social acquaintance, but Barbaro is a walking Christmas miracle. At least, that's what his followers would have you believe.

From the Barbaro message board (names have been changed to prevent any undue embarrassment:

***

Beautiful Barbaro, I love you and am extremely proud of how well you are doing. BARBARO: OUR CHRISTMAS MIRACLE... - Monique

Dearest Barbaro, You are truly the world's Christmas miracle and Christmas blessing. You give the whole world a reason to believe in miracles... - Bernice

Oh Sweet, Sweet B. So thrilled to hear you are doing well. You are indeed a Christmas miracle. We will all celebrate with you when you finally frolic in the grass. - Anfernee

***

On the surface, it's easy to look at those messages and laugh. It's simple to shrug them off as crazed fans who are a little too devoted to the object of their affection, much like 13-year-old girls and Orlando Bloom. But what if they are right? What if it's true? What if Barbaro really is our Christmas miracle?

Imagine that some higher power somewhere actually granted someone one miracle. And that genius decided to waste his miracle to heal a freaking horse. Not to find a cure to cancer, not for world peace, not even to convince Scarlett Johansson to pose in Playboy (all things that would bring the world more joy than Mr. Ed's recovery). If that's the case, then the world doesn't have a reason to believe in miracles, but would have a reason to believe in morons.

What if it wasn't someone recklessly spending a miracle? What if Bernice is right and this really is the world's Christmas miracle? Whoever it is that is in charge of presenting the world with a miracle every Christmas clearly dropped the ball. That's the best they can do? Why give the entire world something that can only be enjoyed by women between in the ages of 30-65 and live in the continental United States?

Even if the world's Christmas miracle was wasted on a horse, at least it does provide us with an inspirational, heartwarming story about courage.

***

Millions care about you, your owners and doctor. You have become one of the great stories of our time - Molly

You are a horse of extraordinary courage and spirit... Leslie

Hay Big Boss Top Horse! Loved that wonderful report card you got Tuesday! Way to go, you Big Beautiful Handsome Hunk!...You are so inspiring! - Lacy

Has Barbaro become one of the great stories of our time? Let's review the facts. He won some races, broke his leg, and stood around for a couple months. His owners said that they would "let him go" as soon as he felt any pain. So, in conclusion, he became inspiring and courageous through a combination of not dying and combating boredom.

It appears one of the great stories of our time is also extremely boring. If it was a made-for-TV movie, it would involve a lot of standing around and very little in the way of action or dialogue. Perhaps it could be part of a series, with part 2 being "The day it was supposed to rain really, really hard...but then didn't rain at all!!!"

So maybe Barbaro isn't the most inspirational figure around, but does he still have lessons we can learn from?

Every athlete should learn a life lesson from Barbaro and what TRUE GREATNESS is: it is NOT just skill and being a celebrity. I am profoundly affected by this courageous story as are so many - Jen

***

Athletes get paid millions of dollars to play games. Granted, the training and the performance in the game is physically punishing, but it beats digging ditches. Imagine if they could just skip the physically punishing part and proceed straight to the part where they are remembered as courageous, inspiring, and heroic for doing absolutely nothing. Evidently, true greatness isn't just skill and being a celebrity, it's also getting thousands of people to celebrate you for simply existing.

And really, isn't that what Christmas is all about?

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 6:24 PM | Comments (1)

December 19, 2006

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* I know you've heard a ton about Lamar Hunt already, and I mentioned him just three weeks ago, but you could reasonably argue that no one has had a greater influence on the NFL. If you like this league, Hunt is one of the first people you have to thank for it. Hunt is a member of eight different Halls of Fame (including the one in Canton, of course).

* Isiah Thomas was an overrated, ill-mannered player as a member of the Bad Boy Pistons. Why should anyone expect him to be different after his playing career? Now he's an overrated, classless coach.

* Pro Bowl teams will be announced today. Among the more interesting votes will be whether Shawne Merriman, who missed four games after testing positive for steroids, made the team. The bet here is yes.

* I think Pete Morelli needs to stop hitting the bottle before games. Did anyone else notice how much trouble he had with his penalty announcements on Thursday night?

* Apparently, John Madden hates Jeff Triplette, too. Maybe one day the NFL will get a clue and stop letting him ref games. Again. The league already had to relieve Triplette once, after he nearly blinded Orlando Brown by throwing a flag in his eye.

***

Power rankings mean different things to different people. This column's power rankings evaluate a team's current level of performance. Games played before the bye don't matter any more. Week 1 is ancient history.

For college football, in particular, power rankings frequently include the entire season. With over 100 schools, some teams play very different schedules from others. Ohio State and Florida, the two teams that will meet in the so-called national championship game, didn't have a single opponent in common this year. College football power rankings reflect a team's success against very different opponents, and on some level, they are essential to evaluating teams at all.

In the NFL, that's not the case. Some teams play harder schedules than others, but the difference between the Chargers and the Lions is tiny compared to the difference between OSU and say, Utah State. It would be a huge upset if San Diego lost to someone like the Lions, but it's inconceivable that Utah State could hang with the Buckeyes. Season-long power rankings in the NFL don't serve much purpose, basically reflecting a team's record and breaking the ties based on strength of schedule.

Ranking the teams based only on recent performance is hard sometimes. When a team like the Bills or Titans gets hot in the second half, my rankings look a lot different than those from someone who thinks of them as just another 7-7 team. But if you're looking for analysis on current performance, and which teams are playing the best right now, this is the place to be.

On to the power rankings, brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. San Diego Chargers [1] — Everyone knows about the amazing offense and the blitzing defense. How about a little love for special teams? In the first half of Sunday night's game, the Chargers had three big plays from their punting formation. First, they picked up a touchdown after Michael Turner ran for a first down on a fake punt. Then Mike Scifres pinned the Chiefs at their own 4-yard-line, and Kansas City's subsequent 61-yard drive didn't yield any points. After another punt downed inside the 10, Scifres had a kick blocked, but Derrick Ross touched the ball beyond the line of scrimmage, and San Diego's David Binn recovered it to give the Chargers a new set of downs. On the next play, LaDainian Tomlinson ran 85 yards for a touchdown. That made it 14-3, San Diego. The Chiefs never recovered.

2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — The defense has at least five sacks in four of the last five games. Their total over that span, 27, projects to an 86-sack season, which would destroy the record set by the 1984 Bears (72). The Ravens also boast the second-stingiest run defense in the NFL. If anyone can shut down the Chargers' electrifying offense, it's this team.

3. New Orleans Saints [4] — Don't deserve to be ranked third after their disappointing loss to Washington, but neither do the Cowboys, whom they routed in Week 14. Neither do the injury-plagued Bengals or Bears. I think the suspension of Hollis Thomas has really hurt New Orleans, which misses his presence in the middle of the defensive line. The Saints are giving up an average of 5.1 yards per carry this season, the worst average this side of the Colts. Remember when only bad teams had weak run defense?

4. Dallas Cowboys [5] — They've clinched a playoff berth, but not position. A loss in their Monday afternoon game against Philadelphia could put Dallas on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Even with a win, the Cowboys need New Orleans to lose if they want a first-round bye. Dallas will be dangerous in the postseason, but it's going to have a tough road to the Super Bowl.

5. Cincinnati Bengals [3] — We knew the Colts would probably score against them, but Cincinnati should have been able to keep up in a shootout. Already without left tackle Levi Jones, who hasn't played since Week 5, the Bengals lost Willie Anderson in the first half of Monday's game, and they got killed on the line. Under constant pressure, Carson Palmer completed only half his passes, and Rudi Johnson averaged less than four yards per carry against the league's worst run defense. Even though these are the Bengals, Jones and Anderson are injured, not in jail.

6. Chicago Bears [6] — That awesome defense is in a lot of trouble, as both starting defensive tackles are done for the season. Tommie Harris, one of the best defensive players in the NFL, is hurt. Tank Johnson was arrested for the third time in the last 18 months and reportedly is finished with this organization. The Bears have allowed 58 points in the two games since Harris was hurt, their highest two-game total this season. The 31 points given up against Tampa Bay matched a season-high for Chicago, but in the previous game, the Bears had six turnovers, leading to four touchdowns. Also, Tampa came into the game with the worst scoring offense in the NFL (11.6 ppg), and hadn't scored 30 points in a game all season. The Bears probably won't get lit up by Detroit or Green Bay, but if they have to face the Saints or Cowboys this postseason, that defense could have real problems.

7. New England Patriots [9] — Scored 40 points in a rout of the Texans, but all is not well with this offense. New England had just 15 first downs and 230 yards of offense. The Pats averaged under three yards per carry and just 4.5 per pass. Tom Brady has thrown for only 187 yards in his last two games combined. This is not a playoff offense. The Patriots can prove me wrong the next two weeks, with a pair of tough road games, but I just don't think they have the weapons to go on a strong playoff run right now.

8. Indianapolis Colts [10] — The run defense held up (for the most part) on Monday night, but it's clearly this team's Achilles' heel. Larry Tripplett left for Buffalo this offseason, but the Colts still had decent personnel. Then they lost Corey Simon for the season. Monte Reagor was in a car crash and hasn't played since. Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders has only played in four games. Without those injuries, the Colts are probably a top-three team.

9. Buffalo Bills [11] — In a game without a lot offense, J.P. Losman threw three touchdown passes to help his team knock the Dolphins out of playoff contention. Losman has played well since the bye, with a passer rating over 100 in the last two months. Steve Fairchild, who was offensive coordinator for the Rams from 2003-05, runs the offense, and his staff has done a nice job with Losman and Lee Evans.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars [7] — It's rare that you can pin a loss on one player, but David Garrard pretty much gave this one away, with an incredible three turnovers returned for touchdowns, plus the game-ending interception with under a minute left. If Garrard wants to prove that he should be Jacksonville's starting quarterback, he needs to play a lot better than he has the last two weeks.

11. Tennessee Titans [12] — Their 15:38 of offensive possession was the least by a winning team since time of possession became an official statistic. The Titans had under 100 yards of offense and made only five first downs. It seems like a lot of games have been won that way this year, but it's not a reliable formula for success.

12. Miami Dolphins [8] — Lost 21-0 a week after they won 21-0. Joey Harrington had a transcendently bad game, with a passer rating of zero when he was benched at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas both had good games on defense. Taylor had a sack and forced fumble, while Thomas led the team in tackles and forced two fumbles. The Dolphins need to get an offense here before Taylor and Thomas get too old to keep performing at this level.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers [14] — With the possible exception of Baltimore, no team has a hotter defense. The Steelers have held opponents to seven points or less in their last three games. Getting humiliated by the Ravens may have been the best thing to happen to this team all season, because it seems to have — finally — jolted Pittsburgh into playing to its potential. The Steelers don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs anymore, but they can still mess things up for the Ravens and Bengals. Black-and-gold fans could derive at least some satisfaction from that.

14. New York Jets [13] — Minnesota was a dream matchup. The Jets have a good passing game but can't run the ball well. Minnesota has the league's best rush defense, but can't stop the pass. Chad Pennington throws for 339 yards, Laveranues Coles catches 12 passes, Jets win.

15. Philadelphia Eagles [18] — I can admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong about the Eagles tanking after Donovan McNabb got hurt. I was not wrong, though, about Jeff Garcia, whom I've always liked. Both Brian Westbrook and Garcia played well against the Giants, but the real hero was Brian Dawkins, who had nine solo tackles, two pass deflections, an interception, and two forced fumbles.

16. New York Giants [15] — This is a pretty charitable ranking considering that they've lost five of the last six games. All of those losses, though, were to teams ranked above them, and most of them were competitive. The Giants still have the inside track to the NFC playoffs, but they'll have to win at least one — and possibly both — of their last two games, which won't be easy. The G-Men face New Orleans in Week 16, and travel to Washington in Week 17.

17. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — For most of this decade, Kansas City has had the best offensive line in the NFL. This season, they've given up 36 sacks, more than teams with notorious protections problems, such as the Bengals (34), Cardinals (32), and Cowboys (30). Eleven of those 36 sacks have come in the last two games, and both of the next two are against good defenses who will look to exploit the team's pass-blocking weaknesses.

18. Atlanta Falcons [19] — Not to say I told you so, but what on earth is Jim Mora, Jr., thinking? The Falcons had eight penalties on Saturday night, but I'm sure they weren't the least bit distracted by their coach saying he would pack his bags in the middle of a playoff run — to go coach a middle-tier college team.

19. Denver Broncos [21] — Jay Cutler had his first good game as a pro, throwing touchdown passes to Javon Walker and Rod Smith in Denver's victory over the Cardinals. Cutler's fellow rookie, Brandon Marshall, continues to be more involved in the game plan. I haven't seen a lot of Marshall yet, but Mike Shanahan likes this guy, and Marshall had that great catch-and-run against the Seahawks two weeks ago. If Cutler develops as a quarterback, Marshall is a player you'll probably hear about next season.

20. Seattle Seahawks [16] — Winning percentage was better with Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander out of the lineup (.667) than when they're both healthy (.545). The Seahawks will finish this season 3-3 in the NFC West, which is by far the NFL's weakest division. Seattle's .418 strength of schedule is the lowest in the NFL. Bryce Fisher has been playing really well on the defensive line.

21. Washington Redskins [26] — They have good games that fool you into believing they're a good team. Since I gave them a five-spot jump in the rankings, apparently I'm that fool. Ladell Betts is on fire, but Washington really beat New Orleans with defense. DE Andre Carter is having a huge second half of the season, and a healthy Shawn Springs changes the complexion of this defense.

22. Minnesota Vikings [22] — Everyone is talking about the Giants, the Falcons, even the 49ers for the last wildcard spot in the NFC. But if those teams lose at least one game each, and Minnesota beats the Packers and Rams in the next two weeks, the Vikings will make the postseason. Tarvaris Jackson replaces the shockingly ineffective Brad Johnson at quarterback, and that could be the difference in whether or not Minnesota reaches the playoffs.

23. Cleveland Browns [23] — Tied with Tampa Bay for the second-hardest strength of schedule to this point in the season, with opponents averaging a .566 winning percentage. The Browns are 4-10, with four losses in their last five games, but they've only lost to one team with a losing record (6-8 Carolina, way back in Week 5). Cleveland has easier games — against the Buccaneers and Texans — to close the season, but watch out if they lose another one. The 2007 Browns could be dangerous if they get another high draft pick.

24. Arizona Cardinals [24] — Matt Leinart made a rookie mistake on Sunday, throwing at Champ Bailey, and the Bronco DB responded with two interceptions. I've criticized Bailey in the past, and I think last year I even called him the most overrated player in the NFL, but not this season. Bailey has been incredible, and he should probably be named Defensive Player of the Year.

25. San Francisco 49ers [27] — Bryant Gumbel continues to struggle as a play-by-play announcer. On Thursday, he called Frank Gore "Al". Also, Gumbel and Cris Collinsworth need to get over their crush on Alex Smith. He had a nice fourth quarter, but the kid is no Joe Montana or Steve Young.

26. St. Louis Rams [28] — Won a battle between two very bad teams that used to play in Los Angeles. If you don't have L.A. connections, and you aren't a fan of the Rams or Raiders, the only conceivable reason to watch Sunday's game was to watch two very good defensive ends, the Rams' Leonard Little and Oakland's Derrick Burgess. Little had two sacks, while Burgess had one sack and tied for the team lead in tackles.

27. Green Bay Packers [25] — Two wins in a row, but don't lavish praise on Brett Favre yet. The Green Bay QB had three picks and no touchdowns against Detroit, but his defense bailed him out, with six sacks and four takeaways. The game will miss Favre when he finally retires, but it's tough to watch him struggling like this.

28. Carolina Panthers [20] — Chris Weinke hasn't played well, but Jake Delhomme is not worth 34 points. The Panthers have fallen apart, and they've fallen out of the playoff race by dropping four straight games, all against beatable, middle-of-the-pack teams. DE Mike Rucker tore his ACL against Pittsburgh and will miss the last two games, which pretty much seals Carolina to finish 6-10. The team has dramatically underperformed this year, and if the Panthers don't turn things around next season, John Fox will be coaching somewhere else in 2008.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [30] — The Bruce Gradkowski experiment is over. Tim Rattay will start at quarterback in Week 16, and unless the Bucs send him to NFL Europe, Gradkowski isn't starting for anyone in 2007.

30. Houston Texans [29] — David Carr played well at the beginning of this season, with a 113.6 passer rating in September, and mostly efficient performances the next two months. In his last eight games, though, Carr has seven interceptions and only one touchdown pass. He's been horrible in December, with a 46.9 rating. I think it was a mistake to vote for Carr on my Pro Bowl ballot instead of Carson Palmer.

31. Oakland Raiders [31] — I underestimated their defense at the beginning of the season, but the offense is incredibly, amazingly, fantastically bad. The Raiders have scored 20 points in a game only four times this season, and not since Week 8. They've been held to single digits five times and shut out three times. With so much work to do, it's probably not realistic to think this team will be able to contend in 2007, either.

32. Detroit Lions [32] — Their rushing woes continued, as quarterback Jon Kitna led the team in rushing on Sunday. Kitna has been okay this season, and Detroit needs to prioritize other positions this offseason. The offensive and defensive lines would probably be good places to start.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:07 PM | Comments (1)

The Gab that Keeps Us Thinking

There's nothing like the giving spirit that the holiday season brings. All the brightness of everyone's Christmas lights. Holiday songs that your radio station can't get away from. People are more willing to share with others, especially those that are less fortunate. Whether you live in snowy or balmy conditions, this is the time of year where love, peace, and harmony rule all.

Well, maybe not everywhere.

It's been a couple of years since all hell broke loose for the NBA. The near-riot in Auburn Hills brought a sour taste to a sweet time of the year. The Pistons, the Pacers, and select Detroit fans introduced an image the Association will always regret. Sure, there had been player brawls before, but those never got to the extent that one did.

This past Saturday was the first time since November of 2004 the league had another brawling incident to cringe at. Late in the Knicks/Nuggets game, Madison Square Garden became littered with basketball players, coaches, and officials. Fortunately, this fight wasn't as widespread or lengthy as "The Brawl." But it was still out under the bright lights.

By now, everyone knows the story of how it happened. The perceived lack of sportsmanship, the expected "protecting of this house," and the Godfather-like threats have all been discussed by any and every sports outlet. So, for a different approach, let's take a look at some of the quotes said after the incident.

First up is New York point guard Nate Robinson. He was none too pleased with how everything was going.

"It's a slap in the face to us as a franchise," said the second-year player out of Washington. I used to be a big fan of Robinson when he was up here in the Northwest. It seems that the prima donna culture of the Knicks has seeped into his soul over the last couple of years, souring my opinion of him."

Yeah, this could be seen as another hit to the once-proud franchise. But they've been treated like Zsa Zsa Gabor's manservant for years now. The dissensions of Allan Houston, Stephan Marbury, and Steve Francis are all slaps. The Larry Brown debacle was a slap. Isaiah Thomas and James Dolan are both backslaps. The constant state of losing and declining fan support are slaps. The Knicks' face has been numb for some time now.

Next, we'll pick on Thomas, who I believe was at the center of everything. TV cameras showed him warning Nuggets players not to go into the post area because they wouldn't like how they'd be treated. He continued to let us know about his on-court warnings to Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony in the locker room.

"(Anthony) You're up by 19 with a minute and a half to go," Thomas said. "You and (Marcus) Camby really shouldn't be in the game right now."

"I thought that Mardy (Collins) didn't want to have our home crowd see that again and he fouled (J.R. Smith)," he added.

In regards to the first quote, we've always known it was in you, Isaiah. You played with the Bad Boys in Detroit. You grew up tough in Chicago. But while a coach can think that way, you show no class in threatening players on the court with retaliation. You convey that not only your team consists of a bunch of thugs, but you won't hold any responsibility for that lack of integrity. (Plus, did anyone else notice the constant grin on his face through the whole thing? Who is he, the Joker?)

The later comment speaks to the competitor in all of us. I don't know many people that like being one-upped. I know I don't. I know that I've thought about taking someone out when they're showboating against me. I've even acted on that thought once or twice. It was extremely selfish and stupid, but I can understand the feeling. The thing is, acting like a spoiled sport will get you deservedly punished. I did, and so did everyone involved in this incident.

The final quote that peaked my interest came from an outsider's viewpoint. Jermaine O'Neal knows something about the subject, though. The Indiana star was right in the middle of the Malice at the Palace, and he had some thoughts about where brawling belongs in the lexicon of sports.

"The NHL lets (the players) fight. Fights happen in baseball. Fights happen in football. Why are we under scrutiny about our game?"

He's right. Hockey and football are, by nature, violent sports. You don't see board checks or concussion-causing tackles on a basketball court, and that much vicious interaction can lead to tempers boiling over. Baseball brawls, while having as little contact as possible, usually start with the help of a projectile. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't want to be beaned by a 90-plus fireball, either.

Here's the thing. It's the severity of the incident we fans don't appreciate. This was a two-team brawl, not a two-player fight. This would get bad publicity in any sport. So calm down, Jermaine. It was your peers that gave us the gift of emotions turned ugly. Just another reminder that at this time of the season, not every Christmas gift will be well received.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 4:12 PM | Comments (0)

College Football Predictions: Bowls (Pt. 1)

All right, guys, bowl season has almost always been kind to me. Hopefully, it will be kind to all of you, as well. Each Monday, I will be posting my picks for that week's games. Good luck.

YTD Record

1* = 10-6-1
2* = 11-9-1
3* = 9-8

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Poinsettia Bowl, December 19th, 8:00 PM, ESPN

Northern Illinois (7-5) +12 vs. TCU (10-2)

Bowl season kicks off Tuesday when TCU and Northern Illinois meet in San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl. After a disappointing regular season, the Huskies are lucky just to be in a bowl game, while TCU is surely envious of Boise State's spot in the Fiesta Bowl.

On paper, these teams have nearly identical statistics offensively, but this is a bit misleading as TCU consistently faced better opposition playing in the Mountain West conference. I don't see much of an edge here either way, but if the odds makers really thought TCU was going to blow out NIU, then this line would be above 14. Look for NIU to keep it close behind their deceptively balanced offensive attack.

The play: NIU 1*

Las Vegas Bowl, December 21st, 8:00 PM, ESPN

BYU (10-2) -3 vs. Oregon (7-5)

These Las Vegas bowl participants couldn't be heading in more opposite directions coming in. BYU hasn't lost since September and went undefeated in Mountain West Conference play. Erstwhile, Oregon comes in ice-cold having lost their last three games.

This line opened at BYU -4.5 and has been pushed down to 3. Normally, I'd lean towards the ugly short dog in this spot, but I see Oregon as a consistently entity, and I really think BYU is a great value at -3. The Cougars should move the ball more consistently than the Ducks in a game that will likely feature no defense whatsoever.

The play: BYU 2*

PapaJohns.com Bowl, December 23rd, 1:00 PM, ESPN

South Florida (8-4) vs. East Carolina (7-5) +4.5

This is a matchup that only a gambler could love. Both of these teams define the word mediocre. Fortunately, sometimes the most mediocre games provide the best wagering opportunities.

These two share two common opponents as both have beaten Central Florida, while ECU lost to West Virginia and USF beat them. I really think that USF's victory over the Mountaineers inflated this line by at least two points. The Pirates are every bit as good as the Bulls, and I think they will win this one outright.

The play: ECU 2*

Hawaii Bowl, December 24th, 8:00 PM, ESPN

Arizona State (7-5) +7 vs. Hawaii (10-2)

This game amounts to a home game for the Warriors, who are looking for fourth bowl victory in their last five attempts. Arizona State should also be motivated as they will try to send coach Dirk Koetter out in style.

On paper, almost everything seems to point towards a Hawaii blowout. Arizona State has a worse record, a lame duck coach, and were blown-out by the same Oregon State team that Hawaii played very close. Hawaii is normally dynamite at home, but I'm not sure the advantage is the same when their opponent has this much time to prepare. This number seems suspiciously low, and I personally think the Sun Devils have enough weapons to keep things very tight.

The play: Arizona State 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.

Posted by Ryan Hojnacki at 3:35 PM | Comments (1)

December 18, 2006

Dumb and Dumber: The NFL in 2006

As we careen toward one more year in the history books, it's always fun to take a look back at the past 52 weeks or so to see if we can learn anything that might come in handy for 2007 and beyond.

The key to the look-back is the context, the framework for the review. Some people like to look at major developments (we neither "cut and run," nor "stayed the course" in Iraq; Democrats "took over" a very slim majority in Congress and immediately began forcing their collective feet into their collective big mouths; you know, things like that).

Other people like to focus on the mundane. Best picture, sexiest newly-divorced former hot girl trying to get her image back by not wearing panties, most embarrassing mug shot, etc. The goal is to look back at all the ways we wasted our time the past year, while wasting more time in the process.

So I look back at 2006, and I'm looking for a theme. And I realize that with almost every development, be it in sports or anywhere else, the theme of the moment was "what a moron!"

Seriously, has there been a more dumb year than 2006? Just from a sports perspective, we've had the Houston Texans whiff on Reggie Bush, Isiah Thomas named coach of the New York Knicks, a million columns written about how the American League was better than the National League (only to have the Tigers commit 7,023 pitching errors in the World Series and lose to an 83-win ball club), the horrible officiating in the NBA playoffs, and the Raiders hiring Art Shell and the night manager from the Twin Oaks Motel 6 to run their franchise into the ground.

And, as illustrated by the first and last points in the previous paragraph, nothing has brought out the dumb more than the NFL. There have been so many bad predictions this season, it would be hilarious if only I wasn't one of the idiots making them.

Here, take a look:

"I just don't buy the Mario Williams talk. ... Bush provides the best opportunity for the Texans offense to start maximizing their talent. The defense isn't so bad that they have to pass up a chance at a once-in-a-decade back by taking Williams instead."

(In my defense, this led to one of my best lines of the season, as voted on by my imaginary fan base, in my draft recap column: "The people of Houston have been so generous to the residents of New Orleans since Katrina, maybe the Texans brass just got caught up in the mood.")

"I'm not sold on the Broncos pass rush, but their offense is one of the most dependable in the league."

Yeah. Dependable. Sure.

I will say that I think Mike Shanahan screwed himself on purpose with the Jay Cutler thing. Plummer was a winning quarterback whose coach sold him out weeks before he actually got benched. There really wasn't anything Plummer could have done to make it work better, especially not with the corpse of Rod Smith still out there every play. The decision to hold back on Tatum Bell was dumb, too. He's by far the best running back on the team, and would be one of the league leaders in yardage if Shanahan wasn't such an ego freak.

"St. Louis can play defense now."

The shutout of the Raiders in Week 15 not withstanding, the Rams' defense has been poor once again this season (ranking 31st in run defense, the most important defensive stat there is outside of scoring, where they are 26th). I wrote that sentence after watching the new-look Rams, led by stellar LB Will Witherspoon (a great free-agent signing), shut down the Broncos in Week 1. Unfortunately, the middle of the defensive line is still soft, and pass-rushing (and drunk-driving) machine Leonard Little can be neutralized by a successful running game.

If Jim Haslett sticks around for another year (and I can't see anybody in the NFL hiring him now — maybe college, but not the NFL), I think this defense takes a big step next year.

"Al Saunders has the Washington offense clicking, and it may be even better than his best Chiefs teams."

What makes this sentence so dumb is that we were still a month-plus away from the start of the Jason Campbell Era. So I was, in essence, saying Mark Brunell was leading the Redskins offense better than Trent Green had led the Chiefs offense when Saunders was in KC. What I neglected to realize was that the old Chiefs offensive lines were waaaaaaaaaay better than the Redskins' current line, and that Priest Holmes was a much better fit for the offense than Clinton Portis, especially when Portis never really got healthy after that unfortunate preseason injury.

The lesson from this one is to always be careful when making comparisons to the past. Don't make too much out of one game. It's a hard thing for sports writers, because so much of sports is tied to legacy. We're always looking to place current events in historical context, which many times leads to excessive praise and pre-mature comparisons.

"I don't care if they play Daughters of the Confederacy, I will not pick Oakland this year."

This is a classic example of letting your hatred of something (or someone) cloud your judgment when it comes to bets. It took me way too long this season to get on the Raiders' bandwagon as a quality cover team. In 12 games as an underdog this season, they were 6-5-1 ATS. I missed some opportunities there.

"Speaking of Bledsoe, they can't bench him for Tony Romo. They just can't. With all the T.O. nonsense, a QB controversy sinks this team for good and ends Bill Parcells' coaching career."

This takes the cake as the dumbest thing I wrote all season. What I got wrong was that benching Drew Bledsoe wasn't going to cause a quarterback controversy at all. In fact, it was exactly the opposite — benching Bledsoe prevented the controversy, making the Cowboys one of about 4 teams with the offensive and defensive balance needed for a deep playoff run. Going with Romo was absolutely the right thing to do.

Note: I still hate Parcells. He quit on the Pats in 1997. I will never forgive him.

"The Patriots' passing game is fixing to go off."

My biggest miss-calculation in the offseason was how much the Deion Branch trade would cripple the Pats offense. I picked Tom Brady in each of my fantasy leagues, and paid a huge price for it. Reche Caldwell leads the team in receptions with 53. "Fixing to go off" they are not.

"So where does Chris Simms play next year? Oakland? Detroit? Miami? Baltimore? Bruce Gradkowski is officially taking over Tampa Bay."

Just like the Raiders quote was an example of letting personal feelings cloud your judgment, this was a classic case of not trusting your gut instincts. I never liked Gradkowski, and think Simms is a future Pro Bowl quarterback. I let one good game from Gradkowski give him the key to the city, forgetting he still looked more like a UFC castoff than an NFL QB. With Tim Rattay leading an impressive comeback in Chicago in Week 15, it will be fascinating to see how the Tampa offseason unfolds.

"The toughest remaining schedule (opponents have a 58 win percentage), plus only two home games, plus Jeff Garcia, equals wait 'till next year."

Give credit where credit is due. Led by Brian Dawkins, the Eagles defense has risen to the occasion. Jeff Garcia is showing more touch than Donovan McNabb ever has, Correll Buckhalter is playing like he was supposed to four years ago, and the Eagles are in the driver's seat for a wildcard spot. I'm not putting them into the playoffs just yet, but I was certainly premature in writing them off.

"I picked up San Francisco's D for my fantasy football playoffs this week."

Green Bay scored 30 on the 49ers that week, and my fantasy season ended, but that's not the reason why it was dumb. It was dumb because you never bet all your money (or your fantasy season) against an aging legend. Sure, Brett Favre looks like Keanu Reeves from The Replacements sometimes, but he still has legend magic. And you never want to go out watching a legend play a legend game. Keep this in mind when you're betting against a struggling Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in 10 years.

So there you go. It's been a crazy, entertaining, frustrating, maddeningly unpredictable NFL season. After Week 15 (not including the Monday night Colts/Bengals game), I'm 10 games under .500 against the spread, and have a whole column's worth of dumb statements.

2007, here we come.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 6:13 PM | Comments (0)

BCS: Is it Human or Machine?

Once again, the BCS has proven itself to be severely flawed, this time by allowing the human factor to carry too much weight in its ratings.

Personally, I don't have a problem with Florida playing Ohio State in the National Championship Game. I'd rather have seen a rematch with Michigan, but I can understand several points of view that argue the Wolverines don't belong there. The most compelling of those opinions is that Michigan had its opportunity in November and failed. Can't argue with that. In fact, had Michigan beaten Ohio State, he chances of a rematch might have been far greater than what turned out to be. It's hard to say if the pollsters would have leapfrogged Florida over Ohio State like they did with Michigan.

Which brings me to the main point of this column. The BCS needs to make up its mind — is it going to be a computer poll that is entirely objective based on stats, schedule, and record, or is it going to be steered by the human polls? In years past, BCS critics have pined over the computers screwing up certain schools' chances of getting to the title game. This year, they're bashing the voters for clearly colluding to keep Michigan out.

If the whole goal of the BCS is to ensure the two best teams meet in the season finale, then it has to come up with a better way to be entirely objective. Probably the best way to accomplish that is to take the human factor out entirely. That may sound impossible, since computers must be programmed by people, but the human factor can become so minor that it really is no factor at all.

For example, if one computer ranking system places more weight on statistics than other factors, and another program places more weight on schedule strength, and another places more weight on quality wins/losses, all put together, it might create the ideal ranking system that incorporates all the major factors without personal opinion. That's not to say that either Michigan or Florida would be the Buckeyes' foe in Glendale. With Boise State being undefeated...

Anyway, what happened with the coaches poll giving Florida such an inordinate number of points between the final week of the season and the SEC championship is an absolute travesty. What that did was basically render the BCS ratings entirely invalid. Why do computer rankings need to be included if the human polls can still dictate who plays for the national championship? Can't that be accomplished without the computers, as it was prior to the BCS? Of course it can, but those who like and support the BCS use the computers as a guise that they say assist in making accurate selections for the title game, "because the humans couldn't get it right in the past." Evidently, the humans still rule the roost.

Which brings me, once again, to cry out for a playoff. I mean, come on, if the pollsters can have that much sway in the final ratings so as to boost the number three team that, two weeks before, was a long-shot for the national championship into the number two spot, then why narrow their focus to just two teams? In a playoff, with the BCS ratings still in use, all we're talking about is seeds, baby! Who cares if Florida is a number two or three seed in the playoffs? They'd still get a home game in the first round and they'd play either Virginia Tech or Wake Forest in a 16-team format, or Wisconsin or Louisville in an 8-team format. Does anyone believe that the Gators would lose to any of those teams?

And don't give me any sob story about making the kids play extra games and cutting into their precious study time. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If it can work in the lower divisions, why can't it work in I-A? That's the point — it can. Plus, the current bowl structure can be incorporated into the playoff system and have several bowls to spare for those schools that don't make the tournament. (If you want a complete, detailed plan on how this would be set up, send me an e-mail or comment below.)

The bottom line is, until the wise choice is made to establish a playoff system, the BCS still needs some major tweaking. But, to correlate it to an automobile, how long do you put up with fixing a lemon before you trade it in for something more reliable? When it comes to college football, the time is now to get rid of the old beater and upgrade to a newer model.

Posted by Adam Russell at 5:55 PM | Comments (1)

December 17, 2006

MLS Grows Up

Sometimes, there's an unexpected poetry and symmetry in sports. Such is the case with the death of Lamar Hunt and the trade that sent the most famous young man that ever graced Major League Soccer to a new home — two headline-making occurrences that unfolded within the same week.

Hunt, 74, died late Wednesday after a prolonged illness. His contributions to the NFL were legendary, from navigating the treacherous waters of the merger to coining the phrase "Super Bowl." But his most lasting impression on American sports may be with a different kind of football.

He became a founding investor in Major League Soccer before the league began play in 1996, operating both the Columbus Crew and the Kansas City Wizards. I remember colleagues chuckling at the time that having owners with multiple teams in their portfolios was a little "Mickey Mouse"; something you'd expect from McDonald's franchises, not those in professional sports.

But Hunt and his contemporaries paid the price, and continued to pay it — in 1999, he helped fund the first soccer-specific stadium (another phrase Hunt coined, by the way) in MLS history for the Crew. For a league that had been playing games swallowed up by NFL-sized stadiums, the energy and friendly confines of these alternative venues would become an obvious panacea for the fledgling venture. There are now four in operation, with another four scheduled to open by 2008.

"There is no doubt that MLS and the sport of soccer in America would not be where it is today without Lamar Hunt's passion, commitment and unrelenting love of the game," said MLS Commissioner Don Garber in a statement. "He dreamed more than 30 years ago that America could someday be a Soccer Nation. And he lived to see that dream come true."

Well, let's not go that far, Donny Boy. There is more passion for the sport from the masses, but America's only a Soccer Nation if we're talking about the millions of imported fans from true Soccer Nations that attend "friendlies" and keep their eyes glued to the World Cup prelims at local sports bars. The bottom line is that American soccer is still searching for its Lake Placid moment on the world stage, while MLS has created a nice niche for itself that is nowhere close to mainstream media acceptance.

But it's getting there, maturing every season. And there's been no greater sign of that maturity than D.C. United trading Freddy Adu to Real Salt Lake this week.

I attended Freddy's first home game back in April 2004, when the media was in frenzy over a 14-year-old becoming a professional athlete. I interviewed several youth soccer coaches and parents at the game who were there for one reason: Freddy. I interviewed a few players who were playing soccer for one reason: Freddy. And when that kid started warming up on the sideline in the second half of the match against San Jose, the 24,603 fans in attendance responded with a new chant in the old stadium: "Fred-dy, Fred-dy!"

He was a sensation, a star, a reason for everyone in America to start paying attention to MLS on a seasonal basis — even if his minutes-played made him the soccer equivalent of Darko Milicic.

But there were moments from that debut that made me feel as though United and MLS were comprising themselves for the sake of Adu: a media darling and, more importantly, a living, breathing Nike product. Did we need to have him surrounded by piles of the soft drink he endorsed as he held court with the media after the match? Did we really need a mountainous security guard intimidating media who dared ask Freddy any off-the-script questions in the locker room? Was there anything more "Mickey Mouse" than having United restrict ticket sales to the lower bowl and the suites, creating an artificial sellout so the newspapers would report a packed house for The Big Debut the next day? Not to mention the fact that MLS basically overrode its own draft format to get Adu playing with United in the first place.

Three years later, the compromising is over. Freddy Adu is no longer a drawing card in Washington, DC. Part of it is United's fault for not playing him, and not playing him in his natural position; part of it is Freddy's fault for not playing well enough to force the issue; and all of it is about unfulfilled potential. On Monday, his time with United ended in a trade to Real Salt Lake.

Taken in context, the Adu trade is exactly what Lamar Hunt one day wished for this league: that it was a free-standing, viable sports organization that didn't need to compromise itself for the sake of flimsy publicity or pathetic grabs at market share (see Bettman, Gary). Even with his diminished stature, Adu is still considered by the mainstream to be a viable commodity and, by some, the future of American soccer.

To trade him for a tangled mess of draft picks, financial compensation and a future international player allotment was still a risky decision from a PR perspective; because you're trading away a "60 Minutes" segment, magazine covers, jersey sales, Nike contracts, endorsement deals and the face of American soccer's future for millions of casual fans. Real Salt Lake CEO Dean Howes hit the nail on the head when he called Freddy "one of the most recognized names in American soccer" before mentioning anything he might do on the field for his new team.

Unlike RSL, United made a soccer decision on Adu, not a marketing decision. His frustration over playing as a wing under Coach Peter Nowak, rather than in the middle, was considerable and potentially damaging to the team. Yet there was zippy chance United was going to move reigning MVP Christian Gomez for Freddy — so it was adieu, Adu.

Perhaps he'll thrive in the middle for Salt Lake, where his lack of breakaway speed might not hinder him as much as on the wing.
Perhaps he'll learn to compete despite his lack of size. Perhaps his growth as a player, which was clearly slowed in D.C., will be re-ignited.

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps. It's all question marks. That United decided it no longer was willing to wait for the answers — choosing its coach's system and its MVP middle over the unicorn at the circus — speaks volumes about how far some teams in MLS have come, where providing a winning product is now more important than simply providing a product.

Lamar Hunt's dream of America as a Soccer Nation is still unfolding. But his vision of Major League Soccer as a professional sports league has become a reality.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 7:27 PM | Comments (4)

December 15, 2006

A Prescription For Bobby Knight

The thought that Bobby Knight will soon overtake Dean Smith as men's college basketball's all-time winningest coach has me rooting for a heart attack.

Mind you, I'm not talking about anything fatal. That would be heartless. Just something that will force a medical professional to look Knight in the eyes and tell him he can't handle the stress of coaching college basketball.

The problem is, Knight doesn't suffer from stress. He's a carrier.

For something like 40 years, Knight has put his abusive — both physically and emotionally — personality on display in a wide range of ways.

Just last month, he hit a player in the face during a game. Knight's apologists tried to explain that away by parroting his own excuse that his player came to the sideline with his head down and he was just trying to get the kid's chin up.

These are the same people who praise Knight because his players get degrees, which sounds a little bit like that old saw about Mussolini getting the trains to run on time.

What killed me was that the player's parents came to Knight's defense. Any coach does that to my son and I'll be wearing his backside around at the end of my foot like a boot.

But that jab to the chin, the tantrums directed at sportswriters, the chair-throwing, hunting-buddy-shooting, rape-epithet-spouting, cop-punching, student-accosting, and throat-grabbing isn't why I despise Knight.

It's because of Knight's hypocrisy, which makes all that possible.

Bob Knight demands respect from everyone around him, but consistently fails to return the courtesy, especially for those who disagree with or question him.

Since no doctor is going to diagnose Knight with life-threatening stress, it seems inevitable that he will claim the record now held by Smith, who was one of college basketball's real class acts, the anti-Knight, if you will.

So I recommend that Knight complete a week-long anger management course. Not to manage his anger — that's a lost cause — but mine.

The goal of my seven-day program is to force Knight to experience first-hand the abuse he has heaped on others.

Day 1: Knight spends eight hours in a dunk tank. But while people are in front of him trying to hit the dunk target with softballs, the real throwers are behind him, throwing folding chairs at his head. And he's not allowed to turn around.

Day 2: Strapped into a chair with his eyes forced open "Clockwork Orange"-style, Knight has to watch an endless loop of a "The Simpsons" episode as Homer strangles an animated likeness of himself.

Day 3: For two hours, Knight has to sit in a chair, tape recorder in hand, while sportswriters from around the country yell insults and obscenities at him. For the next 22 hours, he has to watch the videotape.

Day 4: Knight gets shot by grouse hunters. I wanted to try this with grouse, but their little birdie feet aren't strong enough to pull the trigger.

Day 5: Knight has to work as a butler for a rap star and obey his every whim unquestioningly. Ideally, the rapper will be someone like Snoop Dogg, who would send his servant to procure certain substances at a certain Caribbean island.

Day 6: He has to work security at a sporting event while Puerto Rico police officers, dressed as coaches, take turns gut punching him for eight solid hours. During the beating, the cops find an illicit substance in Knight's possession.

Day 7: While in prison, Knight's cellmate is a very large, very violent man who sidles up real close to the Texas Tech coach and says, "It's inevitable, so just sit back and enjoy it."

If he can complete the program without his head exploding — and I'd bet against that — Knight is welcome to Smith's record. But first, I think he needs to know what it is like to be shown real disrespect, not the "disrespect" he perceives when someone has the temerity to question him.

Knight doesn't teach his players to respect authority, partly because he has respect for authority only when the authority figure agrees with him. He teaches them to fear authority, which is an entirely different animal.

There is a difference between a leader and a dictator. And that difference is as clear as the contrast between Dean Smith and the guy who is about to break his career victory mark.

Posted by Eric Poole at 8:38 PM | Comments (37)

Oprah Hendry and the Cubs

Since they last won the World Series in 2000, the New York Yankees have spent $1 billion on players who, in the grand scheme of things, delivered nothing but headline material for the New York Post and proved that while you can sometimes buy competitiveness, you can never buy a championship.

You can never buy a championship, though the Yankees will definitely try, and now it seems, so will the Chicago Cubs.

Having tried everything else, and with the countdown on until 2008 when it will have literally been, "like, 100 years," since the Lovable Losers actually won a World Series, the North Side is coming over to the Dark Side, and there doesn't seem to be any way to stop them.

First, it was a hefty deal for Lou Pinella, which I've already stated was a huge mistake.

It took $10 million to bring in the Grumpy Old Man, and another $75 just to keep his best offensive player, Aramis Ramirez, from bolting town.

Then suddenly, the team's expenditures suddenly took on a very Oprah Winfrey-like quality.

And just as if general manager Oprah, er, Jim Hendry was leaping up and down screaming, "You get a car! You get a car!" the Cubbies spent another $136 million to reel in Alfonso Soriano.

It was $40 million more for Ted Lilly, who, for those that don't remember, punched his last coach (what are the chances he'll want to punch this one?), $1.5 to roll the dice on Wade Miller, and $13.3 million for Mark DeRosa, who while clutch for my fantasy team, is the quintessential career utility player.

Jason Marquis will get over $20 million, and they still have at least one outfield spot to take care of, which means Cliff Floyd will be getting a long, hard look.

When all is said and done, the Cubs will have spent close to $300 million on more than five free agents, some of whom they will be paying long after their centennial of futility.

And if Tribune Co. breaks its sizable bank trying to make the Cubs winners, and goes six years or more without doing that as the Yankees have, it will be a double loss.

Then again, they've tried everything else. Over the last century, the Cubs have lost in just about every way possible, at times stopping to introduce completely undiscovered ways of losing into the realm of possibility.

But they've never tried something quite like this, and maybe it's just this sort of, "Can't beat 'em, join 'em," attitude that will finally get them over the hump.

Yeah, sure.

This situation reminds me of the guy with very little to offer approaching an extremely beautiful woman. He knows he's got almost no chance, but if he's smart, he also knows the only way he's got any chance is to put it out there.

That's what the Cubs are doing. They're making a last-ditch effort and getting in the game. They're putting it out there, for better or worse.

And while I'm not sure even the inspirational words of Tony Robbins can get this franchise to "Awaken the Giant Within," the man makes a very, very good point: if you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got.

For more from Aaron Miller, visit GrandstandAdmissions.com.

Posted by Aaron Miller at 8:29 PM | Comments (0)

December 14, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

San Francisco @ Seattle

The Seahawks suffered a double whammy last Sunday. Not only did they lose 27-21 to the Cardinals, but Shaun Alexander's reign as the NFL scoring record holder came to an end. LaDainian Tomlinson scored his 29th touchdown to break Alexander's mark of 28 set last year.

"The ink had barely dried on my name in the record book," says Alexander. "I'm not going to lie; I was pulling for LaDainian — to pull a hamstring. But seriously, it couldn't have happened to a better guy. L.T.'s so nice, guys don't even want to tackle him. But I have to comment on Marty Schottenheimer's statement that Tomlinson is 'the finest running back ever to wear an NFL uniform.' What, Marty? Are there better running backs than L.T. out there? They've just never wore an NFL uniform?"

Even though the Seahawks lost, it doesn't mean much as far as the division goes. They still have a three-game lead in the West, which in years past, also meant the season was three weeks old. A win and they clinch the division. But times have changed. The Seahawks have lost to both the 49ers and Cardinals this year, two teams that seem to be on the rise. In San Francisco, optimism is high that the 49ers can pull out a second upset of the Seahawks, and challenge for the division next year.

"I'll tell you what else is high," says Mike Nolan. "That nasally whine that Bryant Gumbel calls a voice. Everyone may not have NFL Network and be able to see the game, but all canines in the Seattle area should be able to hear the call."

Nothing comes easy in the West anymore, but Seattle is still the class of the division. Matt Hasselbeck throws for 245 yards and two touchdowns, and the running of Frank Gore keeps the 49ers in it.

Seattle wins, 23-17.

Dallas @ Atlanta

After their 42-17 shellacking at the hands of the Saints, Dallas tumbled down everyone's power rankings, and were forced to go back to the figurative drawing board.

"I know we're still Michael Irvin's No. 1 team," says Parcells, "but we've got to get back to basics, such as actually listening to my 'what it takes to win' speech. Apparently, Terrell Owens wasn't the only one not listening. Anyway, it all starts in the locker room. There will be no more of that rap music ... that stuff is garbage, although I'm quite impressed by the body of work from the Young family, Jeezy, Dro, Buck, and Hot Rod, as well as their Asian relative, Yung Joc. The Lil's aren't bad either. Anyway, from now on, I'm the deejay and there's one song that will be playing on a loop, 'When the Saints Go Marching in (to the Endzone).' With one exception, though: Drew Bledsoe can continue to enjoy his Yanni and Elton John CDs. Of course, I accept some of the blame for the loss, as well. Nowhere in our game plan did it say anything about a fullback named Mike Karney. I should have known something was up when Sean Payton didn't hand in his game plan on Thursday, like he did when he was one of my assistants."

The Falcons overcame a slow start and beat theBuccaneers in Tampa 17-6. Down 6-0 at the start of the second half, but Demorrio Williams' 57-yard fumble return put the Falcons up for good.

"That had to be 'Demorrio-alizing' to the Bucs," says a chuckling Jim Mora. "Yeah, I know. That's a terrible play on words, so I won't do that any 'Mora.' Okay, that's enough. It's time to get serious. There has been discussion about using Michael Vick as a running back. It's possible. Of course, who will we fool by that? Whether Mike lines up as a QB or RB, he's going to run. Now, I'm thinking of lining up as Bill Parcell's former quarterback's coach and hoping it works out as well as it did for the Saints."

Dallas hasn't lost two in a row all year; Atlanta hasn't won three straight all year. I'll stick with the trends.

Cowboys win, 31-21.

Cleveland @ Baltimore

The Ravens obviously benefitted from the 10-day break since their loss in Cincinnati, overpowering the Chiefs 20-10 to become the first team to win at Arrowhead Stadium in December since 1995. The Ravens forced four turnovers and sacked Trent Green five times, and kept Larry Johnson out of the end zone.

"Sure, five days seems like a lot of days away from football," says Brian Billick, "but for the tired old legs of some of the old geezers that play for me, it was just the ticket. Heck, I've given Jim Fassel eight weeks off and look what's happened — we're 7-1. Jim must have really been tired."

The Browns rushed for only 18 yards in a 27-7 loss at Pittsburgh last Thursday, which was 205 yards less than they gave up to Willie Parker on the ground. The Browns will have to establish a running game to keep some of the pressure off of quarterback Derek Anderson.

"Man, I feel the same way about the running game as LeBron James fells about the dunk contest," says Kellen Winslow II. "It's bourgeois. We need to pass the ball. All the time. To me. Because I'm a soldier."

The Browns have no success against the No. 2-rated rush defense and are forced to pass. That's when the Ravens bring the heavies on the pass rush. The Ravens collect four turnovers, which they convert into 16 points.

Baltimore wins, 24-7.

Detroit @ Green Bay

Brett Favre threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns as the Packers whipped the 49ers, 30-19. He hit Ruvell Martin in the first quarter for a score, and found Donald Driver for a 68-yard touchdown in the third. Favre now has 413 career touchdown passes, leaving him seven short of Dan Marino's record of 420.

"You've seen my habit of lifting Donald Driver after scores," says Favre. "This Sunday, when I throw a touchdown to Donald, we'll call it the 'Lambeau Lift,' and I'll even throw in an airplane spin. Shoot, I might even toss Donald into the end zone stands and let him body surf to the top. In any case, Marino, I'm coming for you. No one can stop me. Not the Lions, not the Bears, not even Tonya Harding and her team of dimwitted goons."

The Lions lost 30-20 to the Vikings thanks to six turnovers and a running game that took two yards back for every yard forward it moved. As a team, Detroit managed only minus three yards against the Vikings' No. 1-ranked rushing defense. And former Lion Artose Pinner had 125 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. So, Rod Marinelli, can your running game get any worse?

"That would be a 'negative,'" replies Marinelli.

Isn't it funny how former Lions get a lot better once they find another team?

"That's an affirmative."

Is Matt Millen the worst general manager ever?

"Affirmative. 10-4. Aye. Yes. Indeed."

Hey, but you've got to give him this: the man knows how to get high draft picks.

Detroit hasn't won on the road all year. And they suck. And why would you blow a perfectly good No. 1 pick on a win in Green Bay? Favre throws for two scores, one to Driver, who is then gorilla-pressed by the excitable Packer QB.

Green Bay wins, 26-17.

Houston @ New England

Tom Brady endured possibly the worst day of his career in the Patriots' 21-0 shutout loss in Miami. The three-time Super Bowl champions fumbled twice, was sacked four times, and passed for only 78 yards.

"The Dolphins seem to have my number," says Brady, "as well as my voice on audio. Here's what's incredibly ironic: I never thought I would see the day when the 'Patriot' Act would allow an opposing team to surreptitiously obtain audio of my voice and use it against me on the field. Damn you, George Bush and Nick Saban. But last Sunday wasn't the worst day of my career. There was the time I attended an all-fleece fashion show with Coach Belichick."

The Texans lost 26-20 to Houston native Vince Young and the Titans on Young's 39-yard run in overtime, a run in which the Tennessee rookie covered forty yards in 2.3 seconds and seemed to briefly levitate midway through the run. Not really, but to hear Sean Salisbury talk about it, you'd think so. It was a spectacular scamper, and such is the power of the growing legend of 'Vini Vidi Vince.'"

"Young is an incredible athlete," says David Carr, who actually completed passes in both halves in the Tennessee game. "But neither he, not Brady, has what I have — an NFL record. I am co-holder of the record for most consecutive completions in a game. That record will be broken someday, but I doubt the new record holder will be able to say he went one half of a game without completing a pass."

Just to be safe, Brady goes to a silent snap count, while Carr, after several incompletions, becomes the first football player to be taunted by "airball" chants. Corey Dillon rushes for 78 yards and a score, and Brady gets back in the groove, with 234 yards passing and a score.

Patriots win, 24-20.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

The Titans completed the season sweep of the Texans as Vince Young raced 39 yards for a score in overtime to win in his hometown of Houston. Young and the Titans celebrated as the Reliant Stadium crowd looked on in stunned silence, while those in the Houston front office asked themselves, again, "Why didn't we draft this guy?" The Texans passed on Young as well as Reggie Bush to take defensive end Mario Williams.

"Look, Mario had two tackles on Sunday," says Young. "I had none. And, I only had one game-winning touchdown run. And, Reggie Bush only had one 61-yard touchdown catch. The Texans need not worry; I think they'll have ample opportunity in the future to make the best No. 1 pick."

Jacksonville rushed for 375 yards in the 44-17 blowout of the Colts that gave them new life in the race for the AFC South. The Jags are only two games behind the reeling Colts.

"We're 1-0 in games in which we rush for 375 or more yards," says Jack Del Rio. "But more importantly, we're 2-0 when I wear a suit. And 2-0 in games in which I wear a suit and the opposition's quarterback is a Manning. If I ever need to attend a funeral immediately after a game, I'm good to go."

After watching the Titans take a 13-10 half-time lead, the casually-dressed Del Rio slips into a phone booth on his way out for the second half. He emerges like a Chris Moneymaker flush, well-suited, and inspires the Jags to a comeback 24-16 win.

Miami @ Buffalo

The Bills and Dolphins shook up the AFC East last Sunday with convincing wins over the division's top two teams, New York and New England. The Bills grounded the Jets, 31-13, while the Dolphins shut out the Patriots, 21-0. The last team to shut out the Patriots was the 1972 Dolphins, on their way to a perfect 17-0 record.

"I guess we won't be getting congratulations from those guys," says Jason Taylor. "They're awfully protective when it comes to their records. I guess that explains the threatening phone calls from Nick Buoniconti. "

Buffalo used the big play (three scoring plays of 57 yards or more) to beat the error-prone Jets and tighten the race in the East. One of those was a 77-yard J.P. Losman to Lee Evans bomb. The Bills, along with the Dolphins, are 6-7 and only one game behind the Jets for second in the division.

"When Lee gets open," says Losman, "he really gets open. Wide open. Kind of like Britney Spears in her latest paparazzi photo. She's a quarterback and wide receiver's dream: no coverage."

Days before the game, the Dolphins obtain audio of Losman from a shady pawn broker. Unfortunately for Miami, the audio is nothing but Losman belting out Goo Goo Doll tunes in the shower, horribly off-tune. Good for a laugh, but useless to the defense. Losman gets the last laugh as he drives the Bills down the field in the fourth quarter to set up Rian Lindell's game-winning field goal.

Buffalo wins, 17-14.

N.Y. Jets @ Minnesota

Minnesota held Detroit to minus three yards rushing in a 30-20 defeat of the Lions, the Vikings' second win in their last seven games. However, their 6-7 record places them in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

"Anything's possible," says Brad Johnson. "The NFC wildcard race is as diluted as cheap vodka, but I bet any member of the Cincinnati Bengals would drink that stuff. But as long as our 'Pepto Bismol' defense can continue to stop the run, we like our chances. We're doubly motivated to make in to the playoffs, and the Super Bowl. No, not because Fred Smoot has promised us a cruise on the S.S. Lewd and Lascivious. But because Minneapolis native Prince is scheduled to perform at half-time of the Super Bowl. Hopefully, the Purple One will play something from Controversy. And maybe Janet Jackson will show up, although I doubt Prince could even reach high enough to expose her breast."

The Jets' 31-13 loss to the Bills dropped them below the Jaguars and Bengals in the wildcard standings. Chad Pennington threw two interceptions, one of which was returned 58 yards for a touchdown.

"Chad was giving the ball away faster than tickets to the premier of We Are Marshall," says Jets head coach Eric "The Ice" Mangini. "I hear Randy Moss makes a cameo as a extremely talented, painfully lazy wide receiver. Now that's acting."

The Jets are successful when their running game is working. But it may be time for the Jets to go pass-heavy, and the Vikings can be thrown on; their pass defense is ranked 27th in the NFL. Pennington connects with Laveranues Coles early for a score, and the Jets pressure Brad Johnson into two turnovers.

New York wins, 20-14.

Pittsburgh @ Carolina

After last Sunday's 27-13 loss to the Giants, the Panthers were left with a lot of questions. What has been the downfall of the Panthers this year? Quarterback play? Lack of a running game? Inconsistent play in the defensive backfield? Ladylike behavior by Carolina cheerleaders in a Tampa bar bathroom stall?

"All of the above?" replies John Fox. "That incident involving our cheerleaders fueled our playoff run last year. But, like our players, we're just not getting the same kind of performance from our cheerleaders as we did last year. By golly, the last time they were in Tampa, two of them were caught scrapbooking in a craft store break room. Actually, though, quarterback play has been the most glaring issue. Allen Iverson was the 'The Answer' in Philly, but in Charlotte, Chris Weinke is 'The Wrong Answer.'"

The Steelers have won four of their last five to improve to 6-7, which mathematically keeps them alive in the playoff hunt. Last Thursday, Willie Parker rushed for a franchise record 231 yards as the Steelers beat the Browns, 27-7.

"Not bad for a guy that didn't even start in college at North Carolina," says Parker. "That right there should have been grounds enough to have John Bunting fired. Heck, I'm probably not even eligible to play in the UNC aumni game."

Although they have identical 6-7 records, the Panthers have more to play for, but only because they are in the NFC. The Steelers, however, still have a shot at the postseason, but can get a fair amount of satisfaction in the role of spoiler. Including the Panthers' game, Pittsburgh closes with three games against certain playoff contenders (Baltimore and Cincinnati are the others). Weinke gets another start, and the Steelers linebacking corps blitz him unmercifully. Willie Parker rushes for 134 yards and a touchdown, and the Steelers win, 27-20.

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

Devin Hester's two touchdowns, a 94-yard punt return and a 96-yard kickoff return, sparked the Bears to a 42-27 win over St. Louis last Monday night, which clinched a first-round playoff bye. He now has six return touchdowns on the season, an NFL record.

"Hey, nobody could be happier for Devin," says Lovie Smith, "except for Rex Grossman. Talk about taking the pressure off of the quarterback. But seriously, Rex made some pretty good throws, to the right team this time. I think he got his passer rating above freezing."

The Bucs doubled their offensive production from Week 13, piling up six points in their 17-6 loss to the Falcons. At 3-10, the Bucs are out of the playoff hunt, but on the plus side, they have clinched byes for all four rounds of the playoffs. This is the third time in four seasons they have missed the postseason. Gruden deflected rumors that his job could be in jeopardy.

"I'm not going anywhere," says Gruden, with a sneer on his face that would strike fear in one's spleen. "They can't take this job from me. If they do, they'll have to pry my cold, dead fingers from around it, those damn, dirty Glazers."

To open the game, the Bucs try an on-side kick, not in an attempt to recover it, but just to avoid kicking to Hester. But seven laterals later, Hester catches the ball five yards deep in his end zone, and takes a knee. The Bears take over on the twenty, and score easily three plays later against the bewildered Tampa defense.

Chicago wins, 24-9.

Washington @ New Orleans

Despite out-gaining the Eagles in total yards 415 to 263 and dominating time of possession 37:46 to 22:14, the Redskins lost 21-19 mainly due to penalties and turnovers. The loss officially eliminated the Redskins from the playoffs.

"I can understand a few false starts," says Joe Gibbs, "but when a crew member forgets to tighten a lug nut, well, that's just inexcusable. There were just too many caution flags out there today, and the field lacked grip. I know Daniel Snyder wants to make a crew chief change, but doggone it, I'm going to see this thing through to the checkered flag. Whether we come home like Jimmie Johnson or Dick Trickle, I'll be there at the finish."

New Orleans is now the darling of the NFC after their 42-17 beatdown of the Cowboys. Drew Brees threw for five touchdowns, including a 61-yard strike on a screen pass to Reggie Bush, and Sean Payton out-coached his former boss, Bill Parcells.

"I meant 'no offense' when we took a knee with three minutes left," says Payton. "The last thing I want to do is make my mentor angry. I want to make sure I get a 'yes' when I ask him to join my staff next year. And I also want to appeal to everyone to keep Drew Brees in mind when MVP voting comes around. He's got a shot at Dan Marino's record of 5,084 yards, and if keeps throwing five-yard passes to Reggie Bush that become 75-yard touchdowns, he'll get it. That record is 22-years-old. LaDainian Tomlinson broke a one year-old record. Whoopty-do."

Brees carves up the Redskins' secondary for 298 yards and three touchdowns.

New Orleans wins, 30-16.

Denver @ Arizona

Since making the switch from Jake Plummer to Jay Cutler at quarterback two weeks ago, the Broncos are 0-2 and their hopes as a wildcard playoff team are perilous, at best. Cutler did show vast improvement over his first start in Week 13's loss to the Seahawks, although he has shown a tendency to fumble when hit. He has five fumbles in two games.

"Different day, same 'J,'" sighs Mike Shanahan. "Haven't they made a movie about two, goofy mistake-prone guys? Wasn't it called 'Plum and Plummer.' Seriously, though, have you checked out Plummer and Cutler's pictures on NFL.com? Frightening."

Arizona beat the Seahawks for their fourth win of the year. They have beaten each NFC West rival once, and if not for a midseason, seven-game losing streak, the Cards could be 11-2. But they're not.

"We're making progress," says Matt Leinart. "Edgerrin James has rushed for over 100 yards in two-straight games, and I'm building chemistry with my receiving corps. I'll hook up with a chick the minute I meet her, but I like to build relationships with my receivers. You've got to take it slow and not rush things. Take them out to dinner. Listen to them. You know, the crazy stuff that women want you to do in a relationship. But who has time for that?"

The Arizona secondary may be just what Cutler needs to get his first win as a starter. Arizona is 30th is pass defense, and after last week's emotional win over the Seahawks, the hangover's got to be coming.

Denver wins, 27-22.

Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants

Who's an NFC East teams' favorite opponent? Why, the Carolina Panthers, of course. All four NFC East teams have a win over the Panthers. The Giants snapped a four-game losing streak with their 27-13 win at Carolina; two weeks earlier, the Eagles ended a two-game losing streak with a 27-24 over the Panthers.

"It's been quite awhile since I could say I outplayed an opposing quarterback," says Eli Manning. "Sure, Chris Weinke threw for 423 yards, but I threw for three touchdowns. Wow. To throw for 423 yards and lose handily. I wonder what that feels like? It must be a lot like throwing for 313 yards and losing to the Jaguars 44-17."

The Eagles have won two in a row to place themselves back in contention for the playoffs. Jeff Garcia has rejuvenated his career, and the Eagles, with a toughness not seen in Philly since Terrell Owens miraculously recovered from a broken ankle in time for the Super Bowl.

"Dang, you just ruined the mood," says Garcia. "Can anyone mention my name without following with T.O.'s name?"

The outcome of this game goes a long way in determining who's in the playoffs and who's out. The winner is sitting pretty, while the loser falls back into a pool of about four or five other teams vying for the last spot. I'll take the G-Men in a close one. Tiki Barber rushes for 116 yards and a one-yard touchdown run, an early Christmas gift from Brandon Jacobs.

New York wins, 27-24.

St. Louis @ Oakland

What is this? The Escape From L.A. Bowl? Both the Rams and Raiders used to call Los Angeles home, but thanks to Snake Plissken, they were both able to dump L.A. for their current homes.

"Snake Pillsken? I think I grew up with that guy in West Virginia," says Randy Moss. "Long, greasy, hair. Wore an eye patch. That guy would have made a great Raider, unlike me."

Moss injured his ankle last Sunday against the Bengals, which gave Ronald Curry a chance to play. Curry responded with eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown.

"Another case of misuse of a football player at the University of North Carolina," says Curry. "Those clowns had me playing quarterback. I'm clearly a receiver. I think Willie Parker and myself should file suit against UNC on the grounds of 'heinous dereliction of coaching,' and 'mental cruelty.' And speaking of bad personnel judgment, how about Eddie Van Halen's decision to dump bassist Michael Anthony and hire Van Halen's son, Wolfgang? The No. 1 rule in rock and roll is 'never fire the bassist who plays a bass guitar shaped like a bottle of Jack Daniels.' You just don't do it. Although the name 'Wolfgang Van Halen' is pretty cool. The name alone gets him hired for any job. I bet he'd make a great offensive coordinator."

Moss is probably out for Sunday's game, which may be the best thing that could happen to the Raiders right now. What they need now is veteran leadership. Moss is a veteran, but he's got the leadership skills of the first lemming off a cliff. In any case, the Raiders are looking for inspiration, and if that comes from the guy dressed as Darth Vader in the north end zone, then so be it. It's an inspired effort by the Raiders in the Black Hole, whose denizens even shower the Rams with light applause, which is more than they heard from their own fans last Monday in St. Louis. Aaron Brooks throws two touchdown passes, and the Oakland defense picks off Marc Bulger twice.

Raiders win, 21-17.

Kansas City @ San Diego

San Diego's 48-20 win over the Broncos marked a day of coronation for the Chargers; they clinched the AFC West title, and LaDainian Tomlinson scored three touchdowns to break Shaun Alexander's record of 28.

"If you want to crown their butts, then crown them!" Dennis Green must have angrily said.

With Indy's loss to Jacksonville, San Diego also took the outright lead in the race for home field throughout the playoffs.

"Obviously, home-field advantage is very important to us," says Marty Schottenheimer. "We know every team in the AFC fears a trip to Qualcomm Stadium for a playoff game in 75 degree weather on plush, natural grass. We'll even provide those fans that spray water for our opponents."

Almost forgotten in Tomlinson's magical year is the play of Larry Johnson, who leads the NFL in rushing.

"I'd say we're pretty much even," says Johnson. "L.T.'s got me by 14 touchdowns, but I've got him by five whole yards rushing. Don't forget me in your MVP votes."

L.T. and L.J. rush to a draw, with over 100 yards and a touchdown apiece, but 220 yards passing from Philip Rivers leads the Chargers to a 26-20 win.

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

The Colts' defense reached a new level of futility in Jacksonville last week. Already prone to giving up 100 yards rushing per game, Indy's defense nearly surrendered that on the Jaguars' first drive. Fred Taylor's 76-yard run was followed by Maurice Jones-Drew's 20-yard touchdown score. One drive: 96 rushing yards. One game: 375 yards rushing yards.

"Hey, I always try to look on the positive side of things," says Tony Dungy. "Yeah, 375 yards given up on the ground sounds pretty bad. But when you put it this way, 'Jacksonville didn't even rush for a quarter mile against us,' it doesn't sound so bad. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go outside and hide behind a tree and coach some nerd through a first date. Guys, always remember, never try to kiss a girl while you're wearing a football helmet. Ladies, always remember, if you're dating a guy who wears a football helmet on a first date, he's probably a Manning."

The Bengals won their fourth-straight, beating the Raiders 27-10 behind Rudi Johnson's two touchdown runs and Carson Palmer's two TD passes. Positives are aplenty in Cincy, although Bengals legal troubles continue to try Marvin Lewis' patience. The latest perpetrator is cornerback Deltha O'Neal, who was arrested and charged with driving while intoxicated.

"Sure, I'm frustrated," says Lewis, enjoying a sternly worded holiday greeting card from Commissioner Roger Goodell, "but it's Christmas, the season of giving. And in that spirit, I'll forgive Deltha and all of the other boneheads on this team who have been arrested this year. But this does give me a great gift idea for all those clowns: a police scanner in Bengals' orange and black, signed by all of the arresting officers."

Last year, the Colts won a shootout in Cincinnati, 45-37. If the Colts give up 44 like they did last week, let's just hope they score in the 38 to 49 range. I doubt the Colts will give up 375 yards on the ground again (275 is likely), but 375 through the air is a possibility. Indy and Cincy combine for 850 yards total offense, and Carson Palmer's touchdown pass to Chad Johnson late in the fourth gives the Bengals a 37-34 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 9:01 PM | Comments (0)

A European Soccer Primer

Being an American fan of European soccer — and one whose only firsthand experience with Europe is completely colored by Amsterdam's finest cannabis — is sort of like being an anthropologist. "You do things that way? Verrrry interesting." I'm sure it's no different for Europeans trying in earnest to get into American football. It's impossible not to compare and contrast the Modus Operandi of the way American Sports are run to the European way.

But I try to do so fairly. After alI, I have all of the historical context of American sports built into me. I "get" the idiosyncrasies, even if I can't satisfyingly explain them to an outsider. I love soccer, but I can't pretend to understand on the intrinsic level that I understand our sports. The only way to compensate is to try to understand it as much as I can on an academic level, which I'm trying to do, and to love it on the basic sports fan level, which I certainly do. I'm sure an astute European would chuckle at some of my footy observations, but this will do as a primer for my unlearned statesiders.

I. COMMERCIALISM AND THE UNIFORM

Of course, in America, there is no such thing as commercialization of the uniform; if you are out of little league, your uniform is a total tribute to nothing but the team you play for, save for a tiny patch for the uniform maker. We may lead the world in superimposing computer-generated billboards on the field of play when there's a break in the action, but the uniform is clean. Pure, man. Not like the Europeans, where the sponsor logo is front and center on the soccer jersey and the most dominating, eye-catching part of it.

It's easy to take a smug attitude about this until you realize that the the trade-off is — no television ads in soccer except for half-time. I'm not sure how the powers that be package NFL football to Europeans, but if a European were to come here, watch a game, see a touchdown, watch a round of commercials, watch the ensuing kickoff, and then another round of commercials, he'd say, "this is bullshit." And he'd be right. Except he'd probably say "bollocks" instead. Then, you get to explain to him the concept of "TV timeouts" and tell them they are designated breaks for the express purpose of getting some more commercials in and not dictated by any need to stop the game otherwise.

II. ON HOOLIGANISM

Here's another opportunity for Americans to feel smug, because the large-scale violence associated with soccer in Europe is unfathomable here. Certainly, the specter of hooligan-fueled violence is exaggerated and a lot of the individual anecdotes are apocryphal. That said, I feel comfortable stating that something along the lines of the Heysel Stadium disaster in 1985 (where supporters of an English squad stormed the seating section of their Italian opponents, leading a violent chain of events resulting in the death of 39 people; English professional teams except the national team were banned from international competition for five years as a result) couldn't happen here.

The paradox of the matter is that Europe, by all accounts, is much, much less violent than we are. I suppose one dramatic but oversimplified way to look at is, in a violent America, sports is the respite. In peaceful Europe, sports is the excuse to let your animal out.

III. PARITY? WHAT'S THAT?

I'm struck again by the way that, instead of mirroring their own society, European and American sporting power brokers instead emulate the political model of the other side of the pond.

In the free-for-all "workfare" culture of U.S. capitalism, the commissioners of every major sports try to dream up ways to make their league more competitive. As a result, we have concepts like revenue sharing, salary caps, salary floors, and so on. As a result, the NFL playoffs year-in and year-out feature a majority of teams that didn't make the playoffs the year previous. The advantage of this system, I think, is it tells us which teams are truly run the best. If every team is spending in the same range, then the ones that succeed year after year can truly say the outsmarted and out-coached the others (I'm thinking of the New England Patriots with this in mind).

It's very different in the more social-justice oriented Europe. I'm sure I'm missing something, but I never see any of the pro-competitiveness concepts we hear bandied about when reading about soccer. When a player asserts himself on a have-not squad, you don't just fear, as in the U.S., he is headed to a more financially robust franchise — it's more of an inevitability.

The same is true for teams. As best as the history books seem to foretell, Arsenal, Manchester United, and Liverpool will always reside near the top of the standings, with a fourth interloper (currently Chelsea) temporarily joining them. In the last 25 years, there have been only three champions of the Dutch Eredivisie, and 22 of those titles are split between two teams.

As I said, it's difficult to become knowledgeable about a sport unless you love it as a spectator, and it's hard to love a sport as a spectator unless you find a team to love. Several years ago, I chose my English Premier League team to follow entirely arbitrarily (Portsmouth), but now I live and die with them. They are doing surprisingly well this season, but are definitely a have-not franchise as a whole. I'm now reading whispers that the Portsmouth manager, Harry Redknapp, could be a candidate for a coaching vacancy for a financially healthier club in London. Bollocks.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:53 PM | Comments (1)

December 13, 2006

So Long, and Thanks For All the Frosh

Dear David Stern,

Thank you for making the best high school basketball players go to college. This has been one of the most fantastic pre-conference seasons I can remember, and I directly attribute that to the influx of battle-hardened top-line AAU players into the college game. Kevin Durant. Chase Budinger. Greg Oden. So many more...

In the past, we would have lost these guys to the NBA. We would forget their potential as most of them quietly wasted away the prime of their basketball educations at the end of a bench. Some of them, we would have never heard from again, lost like Ndudi Ebi in the shadow of men and legends.

But now we get to see them grow, learning to dominate and showing the enthusiasm of youth. The NBA has millions, but, as far as personal experiences go, nothing comes close to college sports. And as fan, I couldn't be happier. I am thoroughly enjoying this season, and I can't wait for what will surely be one of the greatest NCAA tournaments in history.

So thank you again, Commissioner Stern. I may not watch your league anymore (especially now), but I think you're a swell guy. Merry Christmas.

Sincerely,

Seth Doria

***

I mean every word of it, too. The games this year have been fantastic, and there are so many dangerous teams, you could come up with a list of 20 or more teams that have a shot at making Atlanta (site of the Final Four). Picking this year's bracket is going to be brutal.

The difference this year is the tremendous number of high-quality freshman players coming into major programs and playing big minutes right from the start. If you take a look at an early prediction of Tier 1 (what?) conference All-Freshman teams, the list of players and their impact is undeniable.

You may not have heard of some of these guys yet, but you will.

ACC

Javaris Crittenton, G, Georgia Tech
30.0 mins, 13.9 ppg, 3.8, rebs, 5.4 assists

Jon Scheyer, G, Duke
31.5 mins, 10.2 ppg, 3.2 rebs, 45% threes

Wayne Ellington, G, North Carolina
24.1 mins, 13 ppg, 2.6 rebs, 50% field goals

Brandan Wright, F, North Carolina
26.4 mins, 15.1 ppg, 6.4 rebs, 63% field goals

Thaddeus Young, F, Georgia Tech
26.8 mins, 13.3 ppg, 5.1 rebs, 1.9 assists

Big 12

D.J. Augustin, G, Texas
31.9 mins, 11.3 ppg, 2.9 rebs, 6.4 assists

Ryan Anderson, G, Nebraska
31.4 mins, 13.7 ppg, 6.0 rebs, 60% field goals

Bill Walker, F, Kansas State
Suspended (becomes eligible 12/16)

Kevin Durant, F, Texas
32.0 mins, 21.6 ppg, 9.6 rebs, 41% threes

Darrell Arthur, F, Kansas
21.7 mins, 13.8 ppg, 5.8 rebs, 60% field goals

Pac-10

Tajuan Porter, G, Oregon
35.3 mins, 20.1 ppg, 96% free throws, 50% threes (31 for 62!)

Christian Polk, G, Arizona State
29.1 mins, 17.7 ppg, 2.4 rebs, 2.9 assists

Chase Budinger, F, Arizona
33.3 mins, 17.6 ppg, 6.1 rebs, 56% field goals

Ryan Anderson, F, California
31.2 mins, 16.7 ppg, 8.5 rebs, 42% threes

Quincy Pondexter, F, Washington
26.6 mins, 16.0 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 54% field goals

Big Ten

Mike Conley, G, Ohio State
26.8 mins, 9.3 ppg, 6.4 assists, 54% field goals

Daequan Cook, G, Ohio State
23.1 mins, 16.3 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 51% threes

Tyler Smith, F, Iowa
31.5 mins, 14.4 ppg, 4.6 rebs, 3.4 assists

Raymar Morgan, F, Michigan State
25.1 mins, 11.7 ppg, 5.6 rebs, 49% field goals

Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
22.5 mins, 15.0 ppg, 7.0 rebs, 4.0 blocks, 92% field goals

Note — You'll notice I didn't list the Big East or SEC freshman. That's not to say the talent isn't there, just that more Big East and SEC teams feature upperclassmen, leaving less opportunity for freshmen to play major minutes. Of note: Luke Harangody (F, Notre Dame), Edgar Sosa (G, Louisville), Patrick Beverley (G, Arkansas), and Ben "Little Bro" Hansbrough (G, Mississippi State).

Note — If not for Oden, I wouldn't have listed the Big Ten, either.

As the Pac-10, Big 12, and ACC loaded up this year, so will the other conferences when they cycle in their next big recruiting classes. And with the trickle-down effect of a bigger player pool, more high-level talent will become available to Tier 2 and Tier 3 conferences, fueling the development of the A-10, Mountain West, and Missouri Valley. That, in turn, will make conferences like the Horizon, Colonial, and Sun Belt what the Missouri Valley used to be.

Everybody assumes most of the players who would have gone to the NBA this year if not for the age limit will instead just go next year. Some still will (Oden, Durant, Crittenton, and/or Young). But others will have had the opportunity to expose themselves to the bright lights, and realize their games are nowhere near NBA ready. They'll have a much stronger support system in place to fight off the lies and false promises from agents and other leaches. Instead of bolting, they may stay two, three years. They may even graduate.

And it's not as if the NBA is losing in all this. First, it helps keep out players who aren't ready, but nonetheless get drafted on potential for greatness, taking up a spot/contract that could have otherwise gone to a known commodity whose ceiling may be coming off the bench as a role player.

Second, when these stars do get to the NBA, they are going to be far more able to have a real impact on the game. Their bodies will have developed for another year, and they will have already had the first-time-away-from-home experience. They will have learned to play within a disciplined defensive scheme, which is why a lot of these high school kids can't see the floor in their first year or two in the league. And they will have had at least a year of college courses and the lessons that come with being responsible for your own actions. Basically, they'll be much better employees.

So to the NBA, I enjoyed our time together, but it's time for us to go our separate ways.

So long, and thanks for all the Frosh.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 5:36 PM | Comments (0)

On the Twelfth Day of Christmas...

When I was young, my dad used to always take me and my siblings to our Uncle Red's house for Christmas Eve. To paint a picture, imagine multiple families, four generations, and enough food and drinks to serve the whole state of Hawaii. For us kids, it was a chance to hang out with our cousins, who we rarely saw. For the adults, it was an excuse to have a few beers to warm up on those chilly Hawaiian winters.

But for the youngest generation, this was more about seeing the "big guy," and I didn't mean my Uncle Red, my Uncle Junior, or my Uncle Chris, who all were healthy enough to pose as Kris Kringle if needed. We all wanted to sit on Santa's lap.

Of course, this was the Hawaiian Santa. He didn't come down the chimney, we didn't have one. Jolly old St. Nick was brown, not white like every other Santa we came across. And the most glaring difference of all, he spoke like my Dad in pidgin. (For those of you who aren't familiar with the artful linguistics of pidgin, go to Hawaii, and the first time you can't understand what a person is saying, they are probably speaking pidgin.)

Of course, however, for us to see "the guy in the red suit" we had to sing Christmas songs. My favorite, the 12 days of Christmas — the Hawaiian version.

Everyone has their own version of the 12 days of Christmas, and so does the NBA. It just so happens that it's quite similar to the original, although the meaning behind each day, may strike you as a bit odd for the seasons.

On the 12th day of Christmas, Commissioner David Stern gave to me:

12 Drummers Drumming — If you've never been to a Los Angeles Lakers game, they've done it again. The Lakers brought celebrities to the court, alternate color jerseys, new lighting system that only lights up the court and not the stands, and now this: the Los Angeles Lakers have a live band. We're talking tubas, trumpets, drums, the whole kit-and-caboodle. It's not only unnecessary, it takes away some of the only affordable seats in the Staples Center. Coming soon in 2007, banners to run though to start the game and the second half.

11 Pipers Piping — The 2003 NBA draft may go down as the deepest draft in the History of the NBA. This season, the class' third, may yield as many as 11 players with either MVP, all-star, or breakout seasons. Here is the list of the most capable. LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony all have opportunities to be All-NBAers. Josh Howard, David West, and Chris Kaman have all-star potential. Leandro Barbosa, Luke Walton, and Boris Diaw have opportunities to take their game to higher heights.

10 Lords-a-Leaping — The Phoenix Suns, winners of 10 straight as of Monday, are back to old form. In last year's playoffs, they were worn out by two straight seven-game series. They have a big man now in Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash is doing it again. This year, the Suns make it to the Finals.

9 Ladies Dancing — The Allen Iverson trade is the biggest thing to come out of Philly since Rocky Balboa. He is one of the best players in the history of the NBA. A.I. took Philadelphia out of the doldrums of the NBA and to perennial Eastern Conference contenders. A terrible GM made A.I. waste the prime years of his life, and now there may be just a few years left. Boston, Minnesota, L.A. Clippers, Charlotte, Sacramento, Chicago, Indiana, Golden State, and Denver have got a shot. Philly does not want to send him to a competitor, with that being said, look for A.I. to end up in Chicago. General Manager Billy King has never made any sense, why start now?

8 Maids-A-Milking — The NBA is getting back to the old school, where you can only go as far as your point guard. These eight playmakers will make the difference on whether their teams will be playing come June.

Steve Nash, the two-time defending MVP, has the Suns moving on all cylinders.

Jason Kidd came into the year aspiring to average a triple-double for the year, and if he can come close, New Jersey can come out of the pathetic East.

Chauncey Billups, Mr. Big Shot, enough said.

Tony Parker, he does just enough to keep the Spurs going in the right direction, and it doesn't hurt that he has the Big Fundamental down low.

Chris Paul has the over-achieving Hornets gaining more and more confidence every game. On any other team, he'd be an all-star and an MVP candidate.

Deron Williams is one of the main reasons that Utah is competing this year. Averaging almost a double-double a game, he has Jerry Sloan eying the playoffs, which is always dangerous.

Andre Miller came in a bit chunky to start the year, but a month into the season, his stats are fat. Miller is averaging a robust 13 points, 5 boards, and 10 assists per game. Even with a week front court, Miller has the Nuggets staring at gold out west.

Finally, a name that is very popular this week, Allen Iverson. He averages 31 points, 7 assists, and 2 steals. I guarantee the team he goes to will be in the conference finals.

7 Swans-a-Swimming — Some people have pools on which coach will be the first fired, and there are seven coaches that I feel are either singing their swan song or swimming for one more year. This means you, Doc Rivers, Flip Saunders, Terry Stotts, Sam Mitchell, Mike Fratello, and, of course, Isiah Thomas.

6 Geese-a-Laying — There are a few teams who have been laying some eggs out there, compared to where many people thought they'd be.

The Los Angeles Clippers were everyone's favorite underdog last year. This season, the Clips are just dogs. To start the year, Los Angeles is 10-10, including two blowout losses to the Spurs in less than a week. Not exactly starting the way you finish.

The Miami Heat won the title last year, and this year they look nothing like that team. The Heat have no hunger and play an ugly style of basketball, with bad shots and no team chemistry — a far cry from last year's unit of veterans searching for a title.

New Jersey has arguably one of the most talented trios in all of the NBA. The problem is that Vince Carter, Kidd, and Richard Jefferson can rarely get it all together. Lucky for them, they are in the putrid Atlantic division where at 8-12, they're in first.

Chicago had many people thinking championship with the busy offseason it had. The only problem is that the Bulls failed to fill their biggest hole: a go-to-guy. What they did instead was bring in an overrated center (Ben Wallace) who has performed well below the monster contract he received. The Bulls desperately need Iverson to get back in contention.

I don't get Indiana. They have veteran leadership, a go-to-guy, but have nothing to show for it. Sixth right now in the Eastern Conference is saying something and not in the way you'd hope.

The coveted sixth geese laying an egg is the aforementioned Sixers. Getting rid of your franchise player is the best way to send a team into disarray.

5 Golden Rings — The first of the five most prized trophies at the end of the year will go to Yao Ming (MVP). Yes, this is a huge darkhorse, but if Yao can keep up his 26 and 10, plus carry the Rockets into the playoffs when Tracy McGrady inevitably goes down, he deserves it.

Emeka Okafor (Defensive Player of the Year) is averaging 3 blocks per game and 7 defensive boards, he changes everything around him, and unlike Ben Wallace, he actually is an offensive threat, as well ... imagine that.

Adam Morrison (Rookie of the Year) has gotten off to a horrific start, but that's expected from a rookie. With no other rookie really stepping up after Brandon Roy's injury, Morrison will have the opportunity later in the year to show that he can be a prolific scorer in the league.

Jerry Sloan (Coach of the Year), there's nothing much to say about him, other than he finds a way to win. A healthy Phoenix Suns (NBA champion) has it all this year, and will have the experience to go further. The question is, will the competitiveness of the Western Conference prove to hurt the representative much like it did to Dallas in the NBA finals?

4 Calling Birds — The Final Four teams left at the end of the season will be Dallas and Phoenix in the West and Orlando and Cleveland in the East.

3 French Hens — Three of the most prized athletes in the NBA have all been rumored to be traded this year. Allen Iverson's dealing has already come to fruition. Kevin Garnett, for the sake of him alone, unless they win the A.I. lottery, should be saved for the simple reason that he is a top-five player and should have the opportunity to play like it for a championship quality team. Finally, Paul Pierce.

When's the last time three future Hall of Famers were all on the trading block to start the year? It's unbelievable. The truth of the matter is when the final whistle blows in June, only Iverson will be wearing a different jersey.

2 Turtle Doves — The NBA finals will be between Cleveland and Phoenix. A year of maturity for LeBron in the playoffs and a weak Eastern Conference means that anybody who gets in the tournament could get through. When that's the case, go with the best player, and that's James.

And a partridge in a pear tree — WELCOME BACK, LEATHER BASKETBALL. It only took the whole league complaining for the entire start of the season to make it happen.

Now if only I could do that to bring back my Uncle Red's Christmas holiday parties.

On the 12th day of Christmas my tutu gave to me...

Posted by Wailele Sallas at 11:51 AM | Comments (1)

December 12, 2006

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations to Marvin Harrison, who on Sunday became the fourth player with 1,000 career receptions.

* This week's Monday night broadcast raised the question: who is a bigger tool, Jim Belushi or Tony Kornheiser?

* Washington has four losses by three points or less. That's the sort of thing great coaching is supposed to prevent. This team could be 7-6, in the thick of the NFC playoff race.

* The Broncos were 5-1 with Matt Lepsis in the lineup. Since he got hurt, they're 2-5.

* Frank Caliendo is funny.

***

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the roles played by Chad Pennington and Brett Favre in their team's fortunes, specifically mentioning Favre's 40-point change in passer rating when his team wins. As trends like this continue to present themselves, I checked the difference for every quarterback in the league (minimum 175 attempts).

Comparing their passer ratings in wins or losses, six players had a difference of more than 40 points: Rex Grossman (54.2), Damon Huard (53.8), Favre (44.0), Mark Brunell (43.7), Pennington (42.5), and Michael Vick (41.8). It's easier to have a big disparity if you don't have a lot of wins (like Brunell) or a lot of losses (like Grossman and Huard). A large difference is also more likely if the player's passer rating is high in general. Peyton Manning (31.4) and Tom Brady (31.9) have a lot farther to fall in their bad games than Andrew Walter (8.9) does.

With the possible exceptions of Huard and Brunell, who haven't started all of their teams' games, the list is pretty much what you'd expect. In addition to Favre and Pennington, whom I'd mentioned, it's headlined by Grossman, who has been a disaster in Chicago's losses, and Vick, whose inconsistency occasionally prompts calls for Matt Schaub to play.

The three smallest differences belong to Matt Hasselbeck and David Carr, both of whom actually have higher passer ratings in their team's losses, and Carson Palmer, who almost always plays well. The Bengals win or lose based on whether or not their defense shows up; Palmer is a given.

Anyway, on to the power rankings. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. San Diego Chargers [1] — Clinched the AFC West and positioned themselves to win home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That could be decisive in the AFC, where San Diego and Indianapolis are both 6-0 at home, while Baltimore is 5-1 and traditionally has played much better at home than on the road. It's too early to judge LaDainian Tomlinson's place in history, but he has clearly established himself as one of the greatest running backs ever to play.

2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — The defense destroyed Trent Green, sacking him five times and forcing three turnovers. The offense continued to hold up its end of the bargain, as Steve McNair had his best game of the season. Baltimore has only been held below 20 points once in the last two months. If Marty Schottenheimer's record of postseason failure has you nervous about San Diego, consider placing your AFC Super Bowl bets here.

3. Cincinnati Bengals [6] — Or here. The score doesn't do justice to the way Cincinnati dominated the Raiders. The Bengals won by 17 despite being -2 in turnovers. Not to jump on the bandwagon, but Cincy could be "this year's Steelers", getting hot at the right time and riding a wild card to postseason success. Assuming the whole team doesn't get arrested first. If Marvin Lewis really wants this to stop happening, he has to start cutting people.

4. New Orleans Saints [8] — Sunday night's game wasn't close, but it was exciting. I don't know if I've seen a game this year with more "wow" moments, from the Julius Jones TD run at the beginning right up until the end of the game. No play generated more excitement, though, than Reggie Bush's 61-yard TD reception. If Bush becomes the player everyone expects, that run is going to be in all the highlight films of his career.

5. Dallas Cowboys [3] — They're only one game up in the NFC East now, but make no mistake: this is the division's best team. The offense is better than it looked against New Orleans, and the defense is much better than it looked. It might be a good idea to start covering the fullback in the red zone, though.

6. Chicago Bears [7] — It seems safe to say that Devin Hester wrapped up all-pro returner honors on Monday night. He got some nice blocks from teammates, but Hester has good vision and his speed is incredible. The Bears did get the bad news that Tommie Harris, an early DPOY candidate, is out for the remainder of the season. That's a major blow for this defense, and it showed against St. Louis. Chicago allowed 27 points, the first time all season it has allowed 20 points or more when Grossman didn't throw an interception.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars [13] — I thought they would probably beat the Colts, but not by 27. The Jaguars out-gained Indianapolis on the ground by over 340 yards. Jacksonville is 5-1 this season against teams with winning records, 3-1 against 6-7 teams, and 0-3 against Washington and Houston. Their remaining games are against good teams, so Jacksonville probably belongs in the top 10.

8. Miami Dolphins [12] — I see other power rankings with Miami around 20th, but they're 5-1 since the bye, including blowout wins against the Bears and Patriots. With all due respect to Chicago and Baltimore, Miami might — repeat, might — have the best defense in the NFL. On Sunday, the Dolphins sacked Tom Brady four times and held him to 78 yards on 25 attempts.

9. New England Patriots [5] — Brady can't win by himself. Neither could Dan Marino or John Elway in the 1980s. Neither could Warren Moon in the 1990s. Neither can Peyton Manning. The Patriots still have a strong defense, but if they don't get Brady some more weapons — and I know they tried in this year's draft — then New England is going to fare about the same way those other guys did.

10. Indianapolis Colts [4] — Three straight losses on the road, and they still can't stop the run. Can you see Indy beating the Chargers or Ravens on the road this postseason? I can't. If the Colts draw Jacksonville or Cincinnati in the wild card round — which seems likely — it could be one and done, again.

11. Buffalo Bills [15] — Aaron Schobel's three sacks against the Jets moved him into a tie for the NFL lead. Schobel has had double-digit sacks in three of the last four seasons, and he's consistently been one of the league's top pass rushers since joining the Bills in 2001. I didn't pick Schobel for my Pro Bowl team this year, though I did the previous two seasons. Voting ends soon, and if you haven't voted yet (or just plan to again), you should give Schobel serious consideration.

12. Tennessee Titans [14] — There are a lot of rookies playing well right now: Mark Anderson, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMeco Ryans, and so on. But if I was building a team from this year's draft, my first pick — with severe misgivings on the Bush front — would be Vince Young. Quarterbacks like him don't come along very often.

13. New York Jets [11] — It's all or nothing here. The Jets, in their losses, are defeated by an average of more than 14 points. They win by an average of more than 10. This team is 7-6, so these aren't fluke numbers here.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers [17] — Most years, Willie Parker would be a Pro Bowl lock and an all-pro candidate. If the Steelers can pick up a big back in the Jerome Bettis mold, to split carries with Parker, they'll continue to have a productive running game for a long time.

15. New York Giants [18] — That four-game losing streak doesn't look so bad now. Defeats against the Bears and Cowboys were never cause for shame, and road losses against the Jaguars and Titans look a lot better than they did two or three weeks ago. The Giants have a pretty tough schedule over the last three weeks, so don't mark them down for the playoffs just yet.

16. Seattle Seahawks [10] — Over the last two or three seasons, a good general rule is that no good team should lose to anyone in the NFC West, except last year's Seahawks. This year's Seahawks have lost, in the last four weeks, to both Arizona and San Francisco. Are we really supposed to believe this is an elite team, capable of competing with teams like the Bears, Saints, and Cowboys in the playoffs? I don't think so, but I'll believe it if they beat San Diego in two weeks.

17. Kansas City Chiefs [9] — It's apparent at this point that Herman Edwards probably cost Kansas City a playoff spot by benching Huard. Green is 2-3 as starter, with an 82.7 passer rating. Huard was 5-3 with a 97.6 rating. The Chiefs have two three-point losses with Green at the controls, and their tough remaining schedule makes a playoff run unlikely. The idea that a player can't lose his job to injury is sort of noble, but it's really stupid. If Herm Edwards managed the Yankees, Lou Gehrig goes back to the bench. If he coached the Patriots, Tom Brady's sitting behind Drew Bledsoe. You never bench the hot hand until he stops being hot.

18. Philadelphia Eagles [19] — Couldn't stop Ladell Betts. The Eagles were outgained by 150 yards and lost the time of possession battle by more than 15 minutes. They won with a defensive touchdown, and by forcing Washington to settle for field goals instead of TDs. Jeff Garcia had another good game, and his passer rating this season is higher than Donovan McNabb's was.

19. Atlanta Falcons [22] — Shut down the Buccaneers, and I know Michael Vick is a special, exceptional athlete, but there just isn't a passing game here, and teams that can't throw cannot compete at the highest level.

20. Carolina Panthers [16] — When I criticized Jake Delhomme last week, I didn't mean they should start Chris Weinke. And I certainly didn't mean they should have him throw 61 times. The Panthers' ground game is ineffective, but how can you ask your backup QB, who hasn't seen serious action in four years, to come in and throw 60 passes? That's a failure on the part of the coaching staff.

21. Denver Broncos [20] — Jay Cutler had a decent second half, but he was atrocious in the first, looking like he had no place under center for an NFL team. The Broncos, who are supposed to be invincible at home, are now 3-3 in Denver. A forgiving schedule means they might still contend for the playoffs, but there's not a team in the race that wouldn't love to get a home game against Cutler and the Broncos in the wild card round.

22. Minnesota Vikings [25] — Sadly, the Vikings are a very serious wildcard contender. Minnesota hasn't beaten a decent team since Week 7, and it's lost to several bad ones along the way (49ers and Packers), but the remaining schedule, while not a cakewalk, keeps them in the hunt. The run defense here is something special, and if the Vikes sneak into the postseason, that's where the credit should go.

23. Cleveland Browns [21] — Romeo Crennel is an intelligent man, and I'm sure he knows that the Browns can't win with 18 rushing yards and no rushing first downs. They have had injury problems on the offensive line, but there is simply no way that Reuben Droughns, who rushed for over 1,200 yards each of the last two seasons, should be having such a miserable season.

24. Arizona Cardinals [31] — Ranked outside the bottom quarter of the league for the first time this season. They've won two in a row and three of the last four. Matt Leinart is playing well, with a 93.9 rating in the last two weeks. The Cardinals have offensive playmakers in place, and what they need to do this offseason is to dramatically upgrade the offensive line. Arizona should use its first-round draft pick on an offensive lineman, and in free agency, pursue the best lineman the same way it pursued Edgerrin James last year.

25. Green Bay Packers [26] — Close the season with three games against division opponents, and the one to keep your eye on is Week 16, at home against Minnesota. It's a Thursday night game, and it could impact the NFC playoff picture.

26. Washington Redskins [23] — With the exception of Tomlinson, has any running back been better over the last three weeks than Betts? Maybe Larry Johnson, and the two have something in common: they're being overworked. Joe Gibbs ran Clinton Portis into the ground, and now he's doing the same thing to Betts. In Kansas City, Johnson is on pace to challenge the NFL record for carries in a season. That's how guys get their careers shortened. Where are T.J. Duckett and Michael Bennett?

27. San Francisco 49ers [24] — It's been more than two months since the 49ers scored more than 20 points in a game, but they've given up at least 30 for two weeks in a row. New Orleans has a great offense, so that was understandable, but the Niners made Favre look like, well, the old Brett Favre, and Donald Driver just torched them.

28. St. Louis Rams [28] — Remember when this team was 4-1? Well, now they're 5-8. The Rams' offensive line was overwhelmed against Chicago's rush. St. Louis committed double-digit penalties for the second week in a row, including five on the offensive line alone. I'm not sure why Jeff Triplette's officiating crew felt that the Bears needed their help. The penalties seemed legit, but those two bad calls at the end of the first half — the fumble that wasn't and the inexplicable idea that Isaac Bruce was tackled in bounds — were pretty shady.

29. Houston Texans [29] — Not counting the Jaguars, whom they inexplicably swept, the Texans haven't beaten anyone but Oakland since Week 4. The team is 28th in both total offense and total defense.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [27] — They've been outscored by 148 points this season, worst in the league. They're 0-6 on the road, joining the Raiders as the only teams without a road win. They went 0-6 in their division. The Bucs are a very, very bad football team.

31. Oakland Raiders [30] — Look, the defense is very good, but if you can't score, you can't win. And the Raiders can't score. They haven't topped 14 points in a game since October. That's seven games ago.

32. Detroit Lions [32] — This franchise has existed for over 75 years and played over 1,000 games. In Sunday's loss to Minnesota, though, Mike Martz's offense recorded the lowest rushing total in franchise history, -3 yards.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:25 PM | Comments (1)

Learnin' Japanese

An afternoon sun illuminates the foliage extending in every direction beyond Invoice Seibu Dome on the outskirts of Tokorozawa and casts its natural light into 29,187 spectators through the breach between original grandstands and retrofitted dome. The horizontal band of sunshine circumnavigates the stadium, splitting the fuzzy manmade lumens into two pools, one reflecting from the dome above, the other from the concourses below.

This is Daisuke Matsuzaka's house and the crowd that has gathered within is well aware this could be his final day of home confinement. Speculation has been rampant all summer that Seibu Lions ownership will honor his year-old request to be posted at season's end, thereby paving his way to America. But there are neither tears nor long faces in the seats. Rather, an electric energy ripples through the crowd. This is yakyu — Japanese baseball — at its peak. The second-place Lions are hosting the third-place SoftBank Hawks in this best-of-three first stage that will ultimately decide the Pacific Division delegate to the 2006 Japan Series.

The Lions emerge from their first-base dugout and take the field, a pale-green Astroturf reminiscent of any National League surface with only minimal breaks to accommodate each base and pitcher's mound. But this is the extent of any NL comparison. The Pacific is the younger and more rebellious of the two leagues comprising Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), Japan's MLB equivalent. There is no "Japan League"; the term is a stateside misnomer. And, unlike in the Central League where pitchers bat, Matsuzaka must face a designated hitter each night.

On this Saturday afternoon of what is Columbus Day weekend back in the States, the Seibu Lions' cause will be furthered by the presence of their ace, who takes the mound for warm-ups. They will need it since Lions hitters will be going up against the best pitcher in NPB, SoftBank's Kazumi Saitoh.

As hard as it is to believe, $51.1 million does not even buy MLB's highest bidder, the Boston Red Sox, an exclusive right to negotiate with Japan's best.

Granted, Matsuzaka is not chopped sushi. On the regular season, he finished a close second to Saitoh in every major pitching category: wins (Saitoh 18, Matsuzaka 17), ERA (1.75 vs. 2.13), strikeouts (205 vs. 200), and innings pitched (201 vs. 186). While this is a typical Dice-K season, it has been a career year for the 29-year-old Saitoh, who will soon be the unanimous winner of the Sawamura Award, NPB's equivalent to the Cy Young.

But this afternoon belongs to Matsuzaka. He scatters six hits — along with four hit batsman — over a complete game shutout, striking out 13 and walking none. The only run of the game scores in the bottom of the seventh when the Lions lead off with three straight hits, capped by Kazuhiro Wada's RBI double. Saitoh gives up only one other hit in eight innings of work, striking out nine while walking two, but is the hard-luck loser. Nevertheless, in two days' time, Matsuzaka's Lions will be eliminated by Saitoh's Hawks, two games to one.

This opener was vintage yakyu, where managers sit back and enjoy the pitching performances right along with the fans. Saitoh threw 115 pitches, Matsuzaka 137, and neither bullpen gate so much as creaked, leaving many purists outside Japan longing to see these global treasures swept under the protectionist wings of American baseball.

High pitch counts among Japanese pitchers in general and Matsuzaka in particular have long been a concern among major league scouts and front offices. Possession of this general awareness is one thing, but to be armed with the specifics (forgive the pun) is a sobering matter altogether.

As a 17-year-old, Matsuzaka's 17-inning, 250-pitch performance in the 1998 Koshien Summer Championships is folklore, even in Japanese circles. From there, his iron legend would only grow. By the age of 21, Dice-K had already started 80 games in three big-league seasons (read: no minors), facing almost 2,500 batters in 588 innings of work. That's an average of seven and one-third innings per start.

A 2002 injury wiped out most of Daisuke's fourth season, and upon his return, it was not uncommon for him to throw 150 pitches routinely. In 2005, his seventh in NPB, Matsuzaka started 28 games, with pitch counts ranging from a low of 76 to a high of 160, the latter coming on only his second start of the season. He threw over 100 pitches 25 times, including 4 outings of between 121 and 132, and 11 of more than 132. These last two groupings may sound a bit arbitrary, but they are the definitions of Category 4 and 5 events, respectively, in Baseball Prospectus's Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) analysis system. Dice-K's average 2005 outing was 122 pitches.

In comparison, this past season seemed like Club Med. In 26 starts, which included his one playoff game against SoftBank, Matsuzaka threw over 100 pitches on 19 occasions. Half his starts were at least of the Category 4 variety (122-plus); six were outright Category 5 (133-plus). His high outing was 145 on September 19 and he averaged 115 per outing, excluding one June start in which a groin pull prevented him from finishing the first inning.

Now, the Seibu Lions, as is common in Nippon Professional Baseball, employ a six-man rotation. Further, with few exceptions, NPB takes Mondays off and never schedules more than six consecutive days of games, meaning Matsuzaka pitched once per week at best. In fact, only one start came on as little as six days' rest. Nonetheless, the damage may have already been done, this according to the gurus at Baseball Prospectus, the think tank as rich in dreaming up objective measurements of subjective factors as they are bankrupt in devising clever names for them. Enter Pitcher Abuse Points.

Introduced in 1999 as a follow-up to Craig Wright's biblical The Diamond Appraised (Simon and Schuster, 1989) and refined in 2001, Pitcher Abuse Points is a system that assigns a numerical stress factor to each pitcher's season based on the sum of his individual abused performances. Abuse points are assigned to each outing in which he throws more than 100 pitches, but are never taken away. The theory is that longer recovery periods do not mitigate the risk of subsequent flat performance or injury caused by an overworked outing. You can't un-ring this bell.

According to Baseball Prospectus rankings, the Diamondbacks' Livan Hernandez was a three-peat stress champion in 2006. With 19 starts lasting over 100 pitches, he topped the Majors with 42 abuse points. Although Hernandez has started no fewer than 30 games since 1997, Boston fans can attest to the pitch-induced wear on their own workhorse. Ace Curt Schilling missed much of the 2005 season recovering from foot surgery, and after a 133-pitch start in Cleveland last April — one of 23 in excess of 100 pitches — he went 2-2 with a 6.46 ERA over his next four outings. Despite this, he tallied a modest 18 abuse points.

Against these numbers, Dice-K's 2006 season blew away the MLB competition. His PAP was a stratospheric 176. The year before was even more draining, as he racked up 284 abuse points in 2005.

Baseball Prospectus uses PAP to quantify a pitcher's probability of incurring a major injury (a DL stint of 30 days or longer), and they have corroboration. Historical injury data does suggest a correlation between PAP and resulting injury. Needless to say, Dice-K has a much higher probability of major injury than any current Major League pitcher according to this particular geek stat. He'd be a riskier investment than Kerry Wood, Carl Pavano, or Boston's own beloved Matt Clement.

In all fairness, although Matsuzaka has not yet paid the injury piper, he may have made a down-payment. However, little data is available on his guarded medical history. As mentioned, he was pulled in the first inning of a game in June due to a groin injury, which also caused him to miss his next scheduled start. In 2002, he posted career lows with 11 starts and 14 appearances, having been removed from the Lions' 28-man active roster on two occasions — once in May and again in August. The latter was reportedly due to a pulled hamstring in his right leg. There was speculation that the May stint was elbow-related, but nothing was ever confirmed.

To most American observers, Matsuzaka's health may be likened to an ear of corn, the decay of whose inner kernels are not betrayed by its thick green husks. Given that, how does the Red Sox front office — or the next, if Thursday's witching hour passes — navigate the repressive state of Japanese injury data?

Inaction may be the best course of action. Scott Boras, Matsuzaka'a agent and current scapegoat for the stalled negotiations, could prove more a lifeboat to Boston's future than a torpedo taking aim at Yawkey Way coffers. Of course, as the recent encumbrance of $106 million for J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo can attest, putting $51.1 million back into the palms of GM Theo Epstein does not ensure a sound future in Red Sox Nation.

One thing is for certain — the temperature is sure to rise on this Hot Stove League come Thursday's midnight hour.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 5:00 PM | Comments (0)

December 11, 2006

So Much For a BCS Rematch...

This column was supposed to be about why Michigan fans could whine all they wanted, but still didn't deserve to play Ohio State for the national championship in this year's Fiesta Bowl. It was supposed to about strength of schedule, rewarding preseason ambition, etc.

I'm telling you, I was almost finished making an eloquent argument for Pete Carroll's Trojans and their right to play in a third straight national championship game. Then, against a middling UCLA team and on national television, the Trojans made an eloquent argument for their right to return to Pasadena in three weeks and face-off against the Wolverines in the Also-Ran Bowl.

Yep, it was a disaster for about a day and a half. That is, until Florida was inexplicably selected for the big game. Columnist manna from the heavens. How the Gators, who are admittedly a good team with a strong resume, were selected over the Wolverines, whose lone loss was a three-pointer in Columbus, should be the stuff of an hour-long Unsolved Mysteries special.

In today's NCAA, however, it's no mystery at all. Coaches unwilling to endorse a double-jeopardy rematch between Michigan and Ohio State took Florida's 38-28 victory over Dec. 2 as the perfect excuse to drop the Wolverines in the polls (some as low as fifth) and give the Gators a chance at their first national championship since 1996. And what was Michigan doing while all this was going on, you ask? Sitting at home and watching Florida leap from fourth place to second in the polls after beating an Arkansas team that USC housed by 36 points in Fayetteville earlier this year.

There are a couple of things that strike me as interesting about the Florida-Michigan situation, but before I get to those, I want to take a short break and address the chants of "BCS SUCKS" that seem to be ringing from coast to coast these days.

Since its inception, the Bowl Championship Series has caught nothing but flack from media, coaches and players. As far as I can tell, there are two reasons for this. One, in our sound-byte news culture, nobody ever sits down to think about the enormity of the task the BCS (or any other college football championship system) is asked to perform. Second, our standards for the BCS are irrational and ridiculous.

"I think the national championship should be decided on the field, not by computers." It might be the most chic cliché in the sports world at the moment, but I'm pretty sure none of the people saying it actually knows what it means. The average college football team plays either 12 or 13 games in the course of a season. Why is this significant? Because it means that there will always be a cluster of teams with identical records. This is why the NFL (which has the same problem with a 16-game season) uses tie-breaking procedures to decide playoff seeding.

In the absence of two clearly superior and undefeated teams, the task of the BCS or any other system will be to make (often arbitrary) decisions about whose one-loss record is better than the others. In the nightmare scenario that three teams go undefeated, the BCS is then faced with eliminating a zero-loss team from championship contention (sorry, Auburn fans).

The bottom line is this: somebody's going to be disappointed no matter what. Even the fabled playoff system will have teams on the bubble clamoring for respect. Look at the NCAA's basketball tournaments, which include 64 teams each season. Which of those selection processes has been free of controversy? Exactly.

Second, those who love to bash the BCS love to do so by comparing it to a playoff system. This is like calling your girlfriend worthless because she doesn't look like Heidi Klum and cook like Wolfgang Puck. A playoff system isn't in the cards (at least not in the next few years), and it's not the fault of the BCS as a system.

What we should really be comparing are the BCS and the previous system — what was it, again? Oh yeah, a bunch of teams randomly assigned to bowl games based on arbitrary conference affiliations. After the nation's two or three best teams finished winning their games, coaches and sports writers got to huddle and decide what it all meant. It wasn't a championship — it was an election.

As long as schools across the country stand to rake in almost $100 million under the current bowl system, don't expect a playoff any time soon. And in the meantime, BCS critics, try to remember that a championship game guaranteed to feature two of the country's three best teams is nothing to take for granted.

Four hundred words later, back to the Gators, Wolverines and three weeks of non-stop bitching from Skip Bayless.

The most interesting thing about these late-season debates is the way they reveal an underlying value system that voters may or may not be willing to acknowledge.

Tenet No. 1: Voters will value the last thing they saw.

The Michigan/Florida situation is a case-in-point, and it's the reason that the Wolverines' coaching staff is already reconsidering its long-standing policy of finishing its schedule early and giving its players the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend off. The fact that Michigan sat idle while Florida posted a solid win over Arkansas was, if not a valid reason for moving the Gators ahead in the polls, certainly a convenient excuse.

It's also human nature. Take the case of USC, which was a lock for the Fiesta Bowl until its loss to UCLA. The Trojans sat in third place in nearly every ranking system heading into Michigan's meeting with Ohio State. Despite being a one-loss team trailing a pair of undefeateds, USC was virtually assured of moving past whoever came up short in Columbus.

Why? Certainly there was a notion that USC's schedule made its one-loss record better than that of either Michigan or Ohio State. Then again, there was a sense that a losing team "must" drop in the rankings, even if it's only a three-point road loss to the best team in the country. It was the same logic (only in reverse) that may have compelled some voters to boost Florida past losing USC and idle Michigan last Saturday, head-to-head evaluations be damned.

Tenet No. 2: Conference runners-up can't play for a national championship.

Once again, this is simply a product of laziness and conference politics, but it was enough to keep Michigan out of a national championship. The national championship is for elite teams, not really good teams. If your conference champ isn't elite, they don't get to go. Period.

I know the folks in the Southeastern Conference are so used to hearing that they're the country's strongest football conference that a spot in the Fiesta Bowl for their conference champ seems like some sort of a birthright. But here's the thing. SEC teams just aren't that special. Don't get me wrong — the fifth-best SEC team is probably better than the fifth-best team in any other conference, and the depth of talent in the SEC is probably the country's best.

But here's a project for somebody with a lot of time on his hands: find a dominant SEC team. The Gators are softer than bread pudding and produced a total of zero impressive wins. Come to think of it, can you find any truly dominating performances for Urban Meyer's crew? No, because the Gators don't dominate (except for you, Central Florida). Florida's signature wins were a one-point squeaker over a solid-not-great Tennessee team, a 13-point win over LSU (at home), and the SEC championship win over Arkansas.

In the meantime, the Gators managed to make it interesting against a brutal Georgia team (if you almost lose to Colorado at home, you're brutal), and they escaped from what should have been statement games against South Carolina (at home) and at Florida State. Watching Florida on a weekly basis, was there not a sense that they could lose to almost anybody at any time in any stadium? 'Nuff said.

Tenet No. 3: Championship contenders shouldn't have to play a team they've already beaten during the regular season.

Sadly, this is the average Florida voter's strongest argument. Should Ohio State play Michigan for the national championship and lose, wouldn't something deep in your soul rebel against the Buckeyes' loss, given that the season series would be tied, 1-1? It does seem a bit unfair that Ohio State's earlier victory would count for virtually nothing if this scenario were to unfold in January.

At the same time, however, it's important to remember what the national championship game is all about. It's the nation's two best teams playing each other. End of story. Over the course of the regular season, two teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack (even if it involves those very two teams battling to a standstill) and then meet at a neutral site for a final, deciding game.

Does a loss to the best team in the country (by three points on the road, no less) disqualify Michigan from being the second-best team in the country? Hardly. In fact, it's exactly the outcome one might expect if we posited ahead of time that two identical teams were to play at one team's home field with a tremendous home advantage: a three-point win for the home team, complete with plenty of fireworks for both sides.

For those who feel a 1-1 tie in the season series shouldn't result in one team's receiving a national championship and the other heading home empty-handed, remember that the first game was played at Ohio State, while the second would be in Tempe, Arizona. If Michigan were to win the second game, on the biggest stage in the sport and with no home-field advantage, perhaps that win should count for a little more.

In the end, all of this is immaterial, because the voters decided last week that they knew what was "best" and "right" for college football and its national championship.

Ohio State vs. Florida. Quite frankly, it tells us a lot more about those voting in the polls than it does about the players playing in the game.

Posted by Zach Jones at 6:42 PM | Comments (15)

December 9, 2006

Fear the Boogeyman

Discovering that you've been missing out on a professional wrestler named The Boogeyman who spits chewed-up worms at his opponents is like suddenly finding out that Jessica Simpson's breasts lactate Jack and Coke; in other words, as pleasantly disturbing as a surprise can be.

Wrestling and I have a strained relationship these days. I'm in full flipper mode — I don't make time for the WWE, but if my channel surfing gets me caught on a Smackdown sandbar, I'll stick with it for a few moments. It's a level of devotion far removed from a decade ago, when I'd schedule meals and phone calls around the three-hour block of wrestling that was "Monday Night Raw" and "Nitro."

I think my problem with wrestling today is that it appears, on the surface, to be utterly gimmick-free. This fits with its natural evolutionary cycle:

* It begins with wrestlers that have unmemorable names, whose only gimmicks are their natural charisma and, in some case, behemoth-like size.

* Eventually, stars break out from the pack, and personas are crafted for them. See "Austin, Stone Cold Steve" and "Rock, The."

* As the popularity of wrestling takes its inevitable cultural upswing, more outlandish characters are added to the mix, with prepackaged gimmicks for the purpose of eliciting a response. This is usually where Vince McMahon introduces his gay character or his stand-in for whichever brown people our country is bombing that week.

* That popularity peaks, and desperation sets in. This is where we get wrestling plumbers, wrestling minor league baseball players, wrestling race car drivers named "Sparky Plugg" (no, seriously) and situations where voodoo priests named Papa Shango make their opponents vomit green goo with evil spells (no, no, no ... seriously).

The Boogeyman has that Shango vibe, what with the disturbing face-paint and jewelry that appears to be crafted from sacrificed chicken bones or from unlucky turistas. But that's where the comparison ends...

... because The Boogeyman eats and expels worms at his opponents.

I saw him do it, flipping through the channels one evening. As he and his opponent were locked up in the ring, about two dozen worms oozed out of his mouth, like a child trying to gross out his kid brother during a pasta dinner. The Boogeyman hit some nonsensical finishing move, and then dribbled worms on his foe's fallen body. I was equal parts aghast, repulsed and exhilarated. It brought me back to those days when George "The Animal" Steele would rip into the turnbuckle with his hands and pretend to eat the padding. It brought me back to that night with my dad at the Meadowlands, when Jake "The Snake" Roberts was still an untelevised house show wrestler on the undercard, and everyone in the crowd was wondering why that brown bag near the ring post kept mysteriously moving.

In a federation that seems to be overtaken by homogenous stuntmen, tattooed powerlifters, and characters whose expiration dates have long since passed, The Boogeyman was a revelation.

Turns out he's got a hell of story, too. According to several sources, The Boogeyman is a wrestler named Marty Wright. He gained some wrestling fame by getting kicked out of the "Tough Enough" reality competition for lying about his age — he claimed to be 30 and was actually 40(!), five years past the cutoff age. But he showed enough promise to earn a development gig, and eventually made his way through the ranks (and a pair of untimely injuries) to make the WWE's Smackdown roster.

Where he's now spitting worms at people.

After seeing The Boogeyman for the first time, the only two questions I had were:

1. Where can I get my Boogeyman action figure with automatic worm vomit mechanism?

2. How is this guy not the biggest wrestling star in the world right now? Why isn't The Boogeyman getting the "Man Law" beer commercials or the plum acting gigs, like Kane's Oscar-worthy performance in "See No Evil"?

I needed an expert opinion. So I turned to Scott Mackie, a fellow New Jersey Devils fanatic, admitted wrestling fanboy and someone who could talk you under the table. Seriously, remember Karen Allen's scene in "Raiders of the Lost Ark," where she wins the drinking contest? That's Scott, only with words instead of whiskey shots.

So, Scott: why isn't The Boogeyman the biggest star in wrestling?

"Heh, so in one fell swoop I have to defend, explain and rationalize one of the things I hate most on Smackdown now," he said.

Uh-oh.

Scott listed some interesting reasons for Boogey's midcard status. Like the fact that he's now 42 — although compared to Ric Flair, he might as well be in Pampers — and he's quite injury-prone. And the fact that Marty Wright is black, which has never been a benefit to a performer in the world of professional wrestling. "Say what you want: yes Ron Simmons, the Rock and Booker T all broke the race barrier and won world titles. But they seem to be the exception as much as the rule," said Mackie.

The biggest reason may be that The Boogeyman can't really, you know, "wrestle" all that well. "His character really limits what he can do in the ring," said Mackie. "Say what you want, but if you want to be atop the ladder, you better be ready to go 20-30 minutes in a match, chairs/tables/cages/whatever, if you want to main event. I think I've seen him hit three actual moves in a match — ONCE."

The overall reaction from the "smart" fans, according to Scott, is down the middle: some find Boogey entertaining, others find him to be a "sports entertainment" abomination. In Mackie's case, The Boogeyman's appearances earn a push of the fast-forward button on his DVR.

"And the worms stuff is NASTY," he added.

Sure, it's nasty. Sure, his wrestling skills make Andre the Giant look like Chris Benoit.

But if I'm flipping through the channels and I see a guy who looks like a cross between Darth Maul and Kamala the Ugandan Headhunter shimmying down the aisle with worms in his mouth, I'm stopping to watch the match ... after I check MTV to see if Jessica Simpson is finally doing her infamous Jack and Coke trick.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 11:35 PM | Comments (2)

December 8, 2006

How APBRMetrics is Changing the NBA

When Bill James' "Baseball Abstract" gave us reason to think about on base percentage and game-winning hits, Al McGuire was still coaching at Marquette and Magic Johnson was a high school senior. A generation later, a handful of NBA teams have hired or contracted stat wizards whose skills would make Billy Bean blush.

One of these is recent Nuggets hire Dean Oliver, formerly affiliated with the Seattle SuperSonics. Oliver, a member of the Association for Professional Basketball Research (basketball's equivalent of baseball's SABR), is the author of "Basketball on Paper." We interviewed him about the use of statistical analysis in the NBA.

SC: How many NBA teams employ a person such as yourself, either full time or as a consultant?

Dean Oliver: A handful. There are about five teams with people who do what I do. It involves pretty serious statistical analysis, and very few are qualified. Houston is the easiest example, in that they have a few quantitative analysts on staff. Everyone in the NBA in this field is pretty successful. It is a tough position to fill. It's not just about producing spreadsheets and information. A person must be both knowledgeable about the game, and technically competent, because the statistics must tell a clear story. Thus, it's about translation — one can't simply have a computer science background, or a basketball background, but both.

SC: Did this concept begin with Bill Bertka and his methods?

DO: Actually, it began with Dean Smith. His teams used statistical analysis of his players in the 1960s, and the 1950s. Bertka was my mentor as far as scouting is concerned. He used a detailed approach, and was tremendously helpful to me in that aspect. Bill didn't do too much innovation on the statistical side, but he was appreciative of how to manipulate the info and cull a good story from it. It's ultimately about how to help your team win, how do we beat the other guys? I worked for Bertka at Bertka Views. He was a very fine basketball man and a fine person.

SC: Since the discipline requires both a basketball and computer background, how will those in your profession be developed?

DO: I wish I knew. It's a hard balance. It's an easy balance for me because I grew up thinking about sports, and math and science. If I wrote a book report in school, I wanted to do it on something in Sports Illustrated. So I've had these things in my head my whole life.

There's this stereotype that those who play sports can't be doing well academically, and that math-science people can't do well in sports, but I knew plenty of athletes who didn't fit this example. A lot of people with a passion for sports realize they can't be professional athletes because it demands tremendous skill, but do not wish to allow their passion to go unfulfilled, may enter this field.

SC: How many of the players, if any, realize quantitative analysis is taking place?

DO: When I communicate with them, I don't talk about what I do. I don't think may are aware of it.

SC: What is your day like, say between games?

DO: Well, there are two areas, the coaching responsibility and the personnel responsibility. I use numbers to help up prepare for the next game, or next series of games. These responsibilities are not necessarily daily. It could involve detailed information prepared about the opposition between games, and personnel issues, trade issues, players on our radar.

For both aspects, I have to be sure that on the computer side I'm getting the information in the right format, and simplified. A lot of time is devoted to translating data into the right format, and checking it — making sure names are consistent, the difficult foreign names, and that the data is consistent. I look at how the data rise and fall, and what's happening with us. The status of the team also dictates what is worked on.

SC: Do you use the same, or different approaches, to evaluate players in high school, college, Europe, and the NBDL? Take a stat like turnovers, in college ball.

DO: Well, with the NCAA, we would look at how many of the turnovers were forced and how, and the degrees of turnovers, how much the stat varies. I go over numbers with an extremely fine-toothed comb, a lot more fine-toothed than most people would really ever want to think about. There is nothing simple about it, and I've been at it for 20 years. Now in Europe, a lot of players don't play enough for their stats to be meaningful, so we can't use them. We try to overcome this. When a guy plays a little, it's easier.

SC: Where does the software come from?

DO: There is no software for quantitative analysis of basketball. I wish there was. People have asked me about designing some. It is so much an interdisciplinary methodology, interweaving basketball, math, and science. There are a lot of pieces to it.

SC: So everything you do is in-house?

DO: Yes. There are a few basketball programs, a few different tools that allow for the collection of data, and they organize the data very nicely. But there is no software for analysis, for gleaning a story from the data.

SC: No predictive software?

DO: No. The words have to tell a story, to be translated from the data. The bar is set very high in his area.

SC: Do you feel you have equal tools as those who do this in the baseball world?

DO: I have read in the past about how basketball analysis is not as advanced as in baseball. I think we're closer than baseball's quantitative analysyts realize. Quantitative analysis of basketball is far more complex than in baseball. Baseball is primarily a question of the matchup of pitcher vs. batter. It is essentially about "can this guy hit, and which pitchers can he hit?" There is some data about fielding, and situations, but nothing like there is in basketball, which is much more of a team game. We look at how an individual's play affects our team, and how the numbers fit into winning games.

Baseball has so many more years of available statistics — we will never have that. We can't analyze games from the 1940s, because complete stats were not kept, and so many statistics (i.e. steals, blocked shots) were not tracked — some of the most important ones. But I'm grateful for the development that occurred in baseball, books like "Moneyball" helped explain the need for what I do in basketball. We'll never get as good as baseball with analysis of the past, but I feel on equal footing regarding present play.

I look at methods I used in the early-'90s, when I really thought that I was using innovative techniques, and where back then the numbers could tell a story that would be a magazine article, today I can use numbers to tell a much larger story, "a novel."

SC: Thank you for speaking with us, Dean.

DO: Thank you.

Posted by Bijan C. Bayne at 4:32 PM | Comments (0)

December 7, 2006

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Thursday night football comes to Heinz Field for the second time this year. On September 7th, the 2006 season kicked off and Steelers beat the Dolphins 28-17 as millions watched on NBC. This time, the Steelers host the Browns, and a much smaller audience will tune in on the NFL Network.

"If you don't have the NFL Network," says Bill Cowher, "then call you cable or satellite provider and give that poor, helpless customer service representative a piece of your mind. Or, get a lightning rod, some rabbit ears, aluminum foil, and a set of tarot cards and pray for reception. Or, contact the NFL and ask if flex scheduling can be implemented immediately for Thursday games."

Cleveland won for only the second time at home by defeating the Chiefs 31-28 on Phil Dawson's 33-yard field goal in overtime. The win was sparked by backup quarterback Derek Anderson, who replaced the injured Charlie Frye in the second half. Anderson threw two TD passes to Steve Heiden in the fourth quarter to force the overtime.

"I was on the verge of benching Frye," says Romeo Crenel, "so it's ironic that he has his best half of the year, then gets hurt and has to sit. It's his right wrist, which is the hand he normally uses to throw interceptions and fumble with, so we'll have to wait and see the extent of the injury before making a decision."

The last time these two bitter rivals clashed, the Browns blew a 14-point, fourth quarter lead and lost 24-21. This time, it will be different; Cleveland only blows a four-point, fourth quarter lead. Ben Roethlisberger hits Heath Miller with a late score, and the Steelers win, 20-17.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Atlanta halted their four-game skid with a 24-14 win over the 'Skins in D.C. Michael Vick and company rushed for 256 yards and Vick threw two touchdown passes, both of which were actually caught by Falcon receivers. The Falcons benefitted from a players-only meeting organized by veteran safety Lawyer Milloy.

"Egos and fingers were checked at the door," says Milloy. "And we checked receivers' hands at the door, just to make sure they had them. Those guys got together on their own and discussed a revolutionary new procedure — catching the ball."

The Bucs lost 20-3 in Pittsburgh and fell to 3-9 for the season. Quarterback Bruce Gradkowski threw three interceptions, but did lead a final Tampa drive to set up a Matt Bryant field goal with four seconds left.

"The most vulnerable prevent defense in football is that with a 20-point lead with under two minutes remaining in the game," says Gradkowski. "Obviously, Coach Gruden has been watching the NHL's Lightning play and thought the third period was to follow. But, anyway, it's alumni weekend here for the Bucs, which will give me a chance to meet some players from the past. I really admire those guys for their commitment to this city, but mostly for the bravery they displayed in wearing the old Buccaneers' helmet. You know, the one with the effeminate looking swashbuckler with the feather in his cap. Are you sure Johnny Depp's inspiration for Captain Jack Sparrow was Keith Richards and not the guy on the old helmet?"

That could be, B-Grad. I think it's time for the Bucs to go to their throwback uniforms.

This is a huge game for the Falcons, who are 6-6 along with about half of the NFC. Playoff implications are abundant, which means Atlanta will play great, or play terribly. Who knows? With Dallas next on their schedule, the Falcons need a win here in the worst way. And they'll get it. Vick throws two touchdown passes, which are caught, and Morten Andersen kicks two field goals to surpass Gary Anderson as the NFL's all-time leading scorer. Afterwards, Morten and Gary reminisce about old times via their rotary phones.

Falcons win, 24-17.

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Kansas City squandered a golden opportunity to boost their wildcard standing with a 31-28 overtime loss to Cleveland in a game in which the Chiefs held a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead. Instead of an 8-4 record and the top current wildcard position, the Chiefs are 7-5, along with the Jets, Bengals, Broncos, and Jaguars.

"As they say," says Herman Edwards, "our destiny is in our own hands, and we just ate a big tub of buttery popcorn. Blowing a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead in Cleveland really damages our playoff hopes, but at least we can say we know what it must feel like to be an NFC wildcard contender. Check that. We're 7-5. NFC wildcard contenders are 6-6. I think it's a good year to allow eight AFC teams into the playoffs and only the four division winners from the NFC."

Can you really consider the Ravens Super Bowl contenders? Sure, they're defense is good, but nowhere near as dominating as their 2000 defense. And their offense could only manage a fairly meaningless late touchdown in last Thursday's 13-7 loss to the Bengals.

"That's the kind of offensive production that gets someone like Jim Fassel fired," says Brian Billick, "while someone like me takes over the offensive play calling."

If you want to beat the Ravens, do what the Bengals did: score first and don't give up the big play, which Baltimore has lacked this year. Of course, that's what the Chiefs will try to do, but the Ravens will regain their form. An early Trent Green interception leads to a Raven touchdown. Then the Ravens play "kill the clock" with the running of Jamal Lewis.

Baltimore wins, 20-17.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Despite getting a detailed scouting report from brother Eli, Peyton Manning and the Colts still couldn't overcome the underdog Titans, and lost on Rob Bironas' 60-yard field goal. The loss could be costly for the Colts; although they still own the top spot for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs based on conference record, the hot Chargers could easily overtake them.

"Look, home-field isn't all it's cracked up to be," says Manning. "We can give up 200 yards rushing to San Diego at home just as easily as we can at their place. And our defense is not our No. 1 issue. It's our offense. If we can only score 17 points against the Titans and their 32nd-ranked defense, then defense is not the problem. I know it's usually tougher to score in the playoffs, but if our defense can hold our opponent to 24 points or less, then we should win the game. Now, if that opponent is the Chargers, change that number to 34. But let's not anoint the Chargers as the greatest team ever just yet. Are you going to tell me that a team that had to score 42 and 28 second-half points in consecutive weeks to win isn't flawed?"

Have you heard this one before? Jacksonville follows a huge win over the Giants with a painful loss in Buffalo. They rebound and manhandle the Dolphins 24-10 in Miami. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? The real question, though, is what Jacksonville team shows up on Sunday. The team that beat the Cowboys, Jets, and Giants, or the one that lost to the Texans, twice?

"Your guess is as good as mine," says Jack Del Rio. "I think the more important question is this: which Jack Del Rio will show up? The guy in the fresh Reebok suit and tie, or the guy in the Jaguar polo shirt? Either way, Jack Del Rio is the epitome of athletic style. If I could get my squad to play with the same amount of passion and enthusiasm that I show in the fashion arena, then we could be a 12-4 team, just like last year."

Here's all you need to know: the Colts lost last week, the Jags won last week. Indy won't lose two in a row, and it's their annual "clinch the division in early December" game. Manning throws for an efficient 184 yards and a touchdown, and the Colts' defense proves that their not that bad.

Indianapolis wins, 24-17.

Minnesota @ Detroit

The Lions had the Patriots on the ropes in Foxboro (who hasn't), holding a 21-13 fourth quarter lead before losing 28-21. With the loss, Detroit fell to 2-10 and was officially eliminated from playoff contention.

"It's pretty sad when you're in the NFC and eliminated from the playoffs with four games remaining," says Detroit coach Rod Marinelli. "But that's okay. Our goal this year, as it is every year, is not to necessarily make the playoffs, but to ensure that Matt Millen keeps his job. If two wins is enough to do that, then God help us all. But even though we're 'Rod and Reeling' at 2-10, we've got to keep a positive outlook. So I'll keep feeding these guys compliments, which I call coaching covered with Marinelli sauce, and we'll play this season out, take the No. 1 or 2 pick in the draft, and start the cycle again next year."

Last week, the Vikings and Lions combined for 10 turnovers in respective losses to the Bears and Patriots. If you want specifics, the quarterbacks, Brad Johnson and Jon Kitna, accounted for eight of those ten turnovers. Brad Childress has a decision to make: does he stay with Johnson, or make a change?

"If Rex Grossman can keep his job with a 1.3 passer rating," says Childress, "then why shouldn't Johnson keep his with a 10.3? We're still alive in this thing they call the playoffs, although we'd probably have to win out and resort to bribery and witchcraft to get in. In a season chock full of decisions I'll regret, I'll make another one: Johnson is the starter. Tarvaris 'Play-Action' Jackson will have to wait, maybe as little as a quarter or two, to play."

Call it a hunch. No, actually, call it a coin flip, but I think the Lions will win this. Sure, the Vikes have more to play for, but what do NFC teams usually do when they need to win? They lose. Jon Kitna throws two touchdown passes to Roy Williams, who then boasts that the Lions are "the best 3-10 team in NFL history."

Detroit wins, 27-23.

New England @ Miami

The Patriots overcame a 21-13 fourth quarter deficit to the Lions before two short Corey Dillon touchdown runs powered them to a 28-21 win. Tom Brady passed for 305 yards as New England continued to struggle at home.

"Obviously, we underestimated the Lions," says Tom Brady, browsing through the Christmas 2006 Eddie Bauer catalog. "Or maybe we're not as good as we think we are. We very well could be the sorriest 9-3 team in the league, although personally I think that distinction belongs to the Ravens. We have our weaknesses, just like every other team. But if you give us a home game in the playoffs in January, we become a much more dangerous team, especially when referees make up rules in our favor as they go along, like the 'tuck rule,' for example."

The Dolphins had their four-game winning streak snapped by the Jaguars 24-10, which may have ended Miami's slim playoff hopes. Joey Harrington tossed an interception in the end zone with the Dolphins up 7-3, and the Jags scored on their ensuing possession to go up 10-7.

"If Tom Jackson were here," says Nick Saban, "he'd say 'Joey Harrington, you got Jagged Up!' I just thought of something. My quarterback is a reject from Detroit who plays the piano and who's named after a baby kangaroo. But my backup quarterback is named Cleo Lemon, no relation to Meadowlark, Chet, or Bob. What's a coach to do?"

It's called an "upgrade," Nick. Try it with a quarterback who's not an outcast and/or already injured.

Had the Dolphins won last week, I'd give them a chance. Were this game being played in New England, I'd give Miami a chance. But it's in Miami, and the Patriots are the only perfect road team in the NFL. And the Pats still have a good shot at a bye in the playoffs, and possibly home-field throughout. Brady throws for 286 yards and two touchdowns, and Bill Belichick takes sideline style to another level by sporting a sleeveless hooded sweatshirt with no undershirt in sunny Miami.

Patriots win, 27-20.

N.Y. Giants @ Carolina

On the bright side, the Giants didn't blow a 21-point fourth quarter lead. They did, however, lose their fourth straight game, falling 23-20 to the Cowboys on Martin Gramatica's field goal with one second left. The Giants played well, but were victimized by several untimely penalties, including three personal foul flags.

"I accept all the blame for that," says Tom Coughlin, "and transfer it all to my players. Obviously, last week's players-only meeting didn't get the message through their thick skulls. I think their meetings need to be a little more specific to get the message across. For example, they need a players who have criticized the coaching staff-only meeting, a players who have called out teammates-only meeting, and a players who have blown up at reporters-only meeting. But that would be impossible. How can Michael Strahan be in three different places at once?"

Well, Tom, he can't. Here's an idea, though. How about a coaches and players-only meeting, in which the coaches tell the players to shut their traps, wory about themselves, and show some guts. Like Deputy Barney Fife said, "You've got to nip it in the bud!"

And Gomer Pyle once said "Shazam," which is not even close to the profanity that Panther players, coaches, and fans alike must have uttered when Jake Delhomme threw his second interception against the Eagles last Monday. The pick sealed Philly's 27-24 win and dropped the Panthers to 6-6, a record they share with the Giants, Falcons, and Eagles.

"There's no reason to panic," says John Fox. "Now, if we're losing, with the ball, with the game on the line, and Jake's holding the ball, then that's a darn good reason to panic. If Jake continues to make stupid decisions, then I'll have no recourse but to 'intentionally ground' him. And that sore thumb may help him hitch a ride out of town."

Actually, now is a good time to panic. Carolina has lost already to two of those 6-6 teams, Atlanta and Philly, and a loss to the Giants would leave them in tiebreaker hell. The Panthers' offense is the third-lowest scoring in the league. They won't score enough to beat the Giants. Eli Manning throws two touchdown passes, and the Giants win, 27-23.

Oakland @ Cincinnati

Something odd happened in Cincinnati last Thursday. The Bengals won a game with defense, beating division rival Baltimore 13-7 on the NFL Network's inaugural broadcast.

"Yeah, defense in Cincinnati," quips Carson Palmer. "That is odd, unless you're talking about defense lawyers. We lead the league in those, and it's an all-star cast, I might add. The fact that we're able to field a team tells you that our defense in the courtroom is top-notch."

The Raiders held the Texans to 124 total yards, including minus five net passing yards, but still lost 23-14 thanks to, what else, offensive ineptitude. The Raiders turned the ball over five times, and Sebastian Janikowski missed three field goals.

"I think there's two words that sums up what I think about Sebastian," says Art Shell. "'No good.' If he was half as accurate kicking field goals as he is slipping mickeys into ladies' beverages, then he'd be the greatest kicker ever. Let's face it. If our offense can get anywhere near field goal range, he's got to make those kicks. That's the only way we can score, at least on offense."

Cincinnati's defense went seven quarters without giving up any points until the Ravens scored late. Had they shut out the Ravens, then the Bengals defense could have been looking at a good opportunity for a third shutout. If that would have happened, then you could have looked to the sky and seen pigs flying, and you could probably caught Randy Moss hustling. Cincy comes close, but just misses the shutout.

Bengals win, 23-6.

Philadelphia @ Washington

Wow! It doesn't get any better than this. Garcia versus Campbell. Wait a minute. This isn't the quarterfinal round of the Accenture Match Play Championships between Spanish heartthrob Sergio Garcia and New Zealand's Michael Campbell? It's just Jeff Garcia of the Eagles facing Jason Campbell of the Redskins? That's too bad. Hey, at least there's playoff implications here. The Eagles are part of the picture after last Monday's 27-24 win over the Panthers.

"Did you expect anything less?" asks Jeff Garcia. "Especially with Rocky Balboa himself at the game. I don't care if Sylvester Stallone is 60, he doesn't look a day over 58. What an ovation he got from the fans. Obviously, they weren't selected to pre-screen his new movie. Luckily for Sly, it wasn't snowing. Otherwise, he would have taken more hits with snowballs than the Rock has from Apollo Creed, Clubber Lang, Thunderlips, and Ivan Drago combined. But when it comes to the backup quarterback who's lead the Eagles to the cusp of the playoffs while not throwing a single interception, and who happens to be the greatest enemy of the hated Terrell Owens, I get booed."

This begins Philly's three-game road trek against their NFC East competition. A tough situation, especially at 6-6 knowing you likely need to win all of your remaining games. That's pressure. The 'Skins are 4-8 — no pressure.

Washington wins, 21-20.

Tennessee @ Houston

Rob Bironas' 60-yard field goal with seven seconds left powered the Titans to a 20-17 stunner over the Colts, the Titans' second-straight dramatic win over a quarterback named Manning. Two weeks ago, the Titans scored 24 fourth-quarter points to beat the Giants and Eli Manning 24-21.

"I think I speak for everyone in this proud and humble organization," comments Jeff Fisher, "when I say, 'Archie Manning, come get some.' We've got quite a rivalry brewing here. Next year, we can possibly mount a challenge to the Colts for the division. Maybe what they need to get toughened up for the playoffs is a hard-fought battle for the division crown."

The Titans will face another AFC South rival, the Texans, fresh off an ugly 23-14 win over Oakland in the Black Hole. And 'black hole' must have been where David Carr was throwing the ball; he didn't complete a single pass in the second half.

"Yes, I know 'close' only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades," says Carr, flipping a football in the air and catching it for his first completion in days, "and yes, I am the same David Carr that tied the NFL record for consecutive completions just a few weeks ago."

In a game such as this, you have to go with the hot hand. And that certainly isn't Carr. Young throws for one TD and runs for another.

Tennessee wins, 28-24.

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Both the Packers and 49ers suffered blowout defeats last Sunday. The Saints beat the 49ers 34-10, while Green Bay lost 38-10 at Lambeau to the Jets, which dropped the Packers' home record to 1-5. The defeat reportedly left Brett Favre questioning his decision to return this year. So, Brett, what's the deal?

"I'll tell you what the deal is," says Favre. "Mary J. Blige once asked, 'What's the 411?' Well, I don't know who Mary J. Blige is, but the 411 is this: I threw one touchdown pass last Sunday, which gives me 411 for my career. I won't stop until I reach 421 and eclipse Dan Marino's record. Hopefully, I'll be in Green Bay when I do it. I don't think the Packers want to see me go, at least not with Aaron Rogers as the projected starter. That dude's not ready, and he can't even play with a broken leg."

San Fran has dropped two games in a row after beating Seattle in Week 11 to get to .500. It's apparent that the 49ers' key to success is the running of Frank Gore. Last week versus the Saints, Gore never got on track, and the 49ers were forced to open up the passing game.

"As Frank goes," says Mike Nolan, "so go the 49ers. When Frank doesn't go, Alex Smith has to throw. Oh no! Alex is no Joe Montana, nor is he Tony Montana, although he does have a little friend. Heck, Alex is no Hanna Montana, either."

This is a battle of probably the two weakest divisions in the league. The North and West have identical won-loss records of 21-27, and they are the only two divisions with only one member at .500 or better. What does it all mean? Not a darn thing, but I don't see the Bears or Seahawks complaining.

Gore gets back on track, with 126 yards and a score, and the 49ers fight off a late Packers rally. San Fran wins, 31-24.

Seattle @ Arizona

Like the Phoenix, rising from the conflagration of a disappointing season, the Cardinals rose to the occasion in St. Louis, beating their NFC West rival 34-20. Okay, that language is a little flowery, and the Cardinals are just 3-9, so maybe it was more like a 1985 Pontiac Firebird making it's way off of a used car lot.

"Yeah, that's more like it," says Matt Leinart. "I didn't take Mythology 101 at USC, so I have no idea what you're talking about. But I do know what a Pontiac Firebird is. 1985 was a great year for cars, but an even better year for sexy co-eds. Anyway, we've beaten every single team (all two of them) in the NFC West this year, except the Seahawks. We've even beaten ourselves a couple of times this year, what with the turnovers, bad defense, and lack of a running game. But things are turning around. Heck, Edgerrin James even rushed for 100 yards. It was fitting that it happened in St. Louis, because I think the last Cardinal to do it played for the St. Louis Cardinals."

Seattle's Josh Brown tied and NFL record with his fourth game-winning kick in the final minute, nailing a 50-yarder to beat the Broncos 23-20.

"Hey, I can only take so much of the credit," says Brown. "The rest goes to my cousin, Charlie Brown, who taught me the importance of a good holder. One of the most underrated acts of athleticism is controlling the snap, spinning the ball so the laces face away from the kicker, and placing your index finger on the tip of the ball. If you can do that, then you can probably chew gum and walk at the same time."

It looks like the Seahawks have regained their early-season form, and Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander seem to be fully recovered from their injuries. Alexander rushes 31 times for 178 yards, and Hasselbeck throws for two scores. The Seahawks' defense sacks Leinart four times, and taunt him mercifully by continually asking him "How about those Bruins?"

Seattle wins, 30-23.

Buffalo @ N.Y. Jets

The Jets piled up 441 yards of total offense in their 38-10 defeat of the Packers in Green Bay. Cedric Houston ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns, and Chad Pennington outplayed Brett Favre. New York improved to 7-5, and look to be a good bet for a wildcard spot with no remaining games against teams with winning records.

"I can see it now," says soon-to-be AFC coach of the year Eric "The Ice" Mangini. "We want to play the Patriots at home in the first round, no matter what. If they're the third seed, we'll be the sixth seed. If they're fourth, we'll be fifth. It will make for great television. Who wouldn't want to watch the 'Awkward Handshake Bowl III?'"

Of all the 7-5 AFC teams jockeying for wildcard position, the Jets seem to have a few lengths lead over the others. A perfect record down the stretch is possible, and imperative. 10-6 might get you in; 11-5 will get you in.

The Jets deep rushing corps rushes for 155 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense forces three turnovers.

Jets win, 24-10.

Denver @ San Diego

LaDainian Tomlinson continued his "I Can't Be Stopped" tour, rushing for 178 yards and a pair of scores in wintry Buffalo as the Chargers won 24-20. L.T. now has 1,324 yards on the year, and joined Eric Dickerson as the only players to top 1,200 yards in each of their first six seasons.

"My future's so bright," Tomlinson comments, "I've got to wear a tinted visor, as I have been for years now. But I know I'm in good company with Dickerson. He was a great running back, although as a sideline reporter for Monday Night Football, he left a lot to be desired, except to Joe Namath, who, well before he asked Suzy Kolber for a kiss, proposition Dickerson on the sideline in 2000. Anyway, I understand that I'm everyone's pick for NFL MVP. Even Albert Pujols agrees with it."

Jay Cutler lost in his first start for the Broncos, going 10-of-21 for 143 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

"That's not going to make anyone jealous," quips Mike Shanahan. "Not even Jake Plummer. But, I've made my proverbial bed; now I have to proverbially sleep in it. And it's a bed of nails. That smarts."

What's the scariest sight a rookie quarterback can ever see? No, not being drafted by the Raiders. It's the sight of Shawne Merriman bearing down on him, with the pent-up aggression of a four-game suspension coursing through his veins. Not good. Neither is the sight of Tomlinson on the other side of the ball. Tomlinson rushes for 120 and one score, and the Chargers win, 28-17.

New Orleans @ Dallas

Martin Gramatica's 46-yard field goal with one second left lifted the Cowboys to a 23-20 win over New York at Giants Stadium. Gramatica had earlier missed a 44-yarder on the Cowboys' opening drive that left Bill Parcell's shaking his head, but that emotion quickly changed to goofy elation as Gramatica's kick sailed through the uprights.

"I thought about firing Martin right on the spot," says Parcells, "but I'm glad I gave him a second chance. Don't get me wrong. I still don't trust kickers any further than I can release them to waivers. He knows the shelf life of kickers in Dallas is shorter than buttermilk in the hot sun."

New Orleans' Reggie Bush exploded for four touchdowns against the 49ers, with three rushing and one receiving to go along with 131 yards in receptions.

"I guess we've all been waiting for Reggie to breakout," says Sean Payton. "Well, he just did. It's about time he put up some meaningful stats, if not for my sake, then for the sake of the 'Subway Reggie Bush Fresh Start Tracker.' Now, if Reggie would just slap the taste out of Jared's mouth, we'd all be happy."

Payton served as an assistant under Parcells, handling quarterback coaching duties. So, he knows what's going through the mind of Tony Romo, including fantasies involving Jessica Simpson. Not that that knowledge would allow him to stop Romo and the Cowboys; the Saints will need to score bunches to win this game. Actually, they'll need to score bunches and keep the Cowboys from doing the same. No one's stopped Dallas lately. It won't start here. Romo throws for three scores, including a 50-yard strike to Terrell Owens, and the Cowboys win, 30-24.

Chicago @ St. Louis

What are the most frightening words ever uttered in the storied history of the great city of Chicago?

"That would have to be 'Fire! Fire!' back on October 8, 1871," guesses Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman.

Close, Rex, but that's number two on the list. Number one is "Rex is still our quarterback," infamously stated by Lovie Smith on December 3, 2006 after Grossman's 6-19, 34 yard, three interception outing against the Vikings, which left Grossman with a 1.3 passer rating.

"Hey, if an earthquake registers a 1.3 on the Richter scale," Smith says, "you don't give it much though. So why should I worry about a passer rating of 1.3? I think I speak for myself and Tammy Wynette when I say 'Stand By Your Man,' even when his passer rating is lower than his jersey number."

Hey, I'm with you, Lovie, as are all of the NFC playoff teams who might have to go to Chicago. There's no better equalizer to weather in the teens and snow flurries than a quarterback who can't hit the broad side of his receivers.

St. Louis has a quarterback controversy of its own, but not involving heinous play by its starter. After last Sunday's 30-24 loss to the Cardinals, Marc Bulger said some of his teammates had "quit."

"I could be wrong." says Bulger, "but did I not see a pizza delivered to the sideline on Sunday?"

Do the Rams have any business beating the Bears? Probably not, but with Grossman under center, who knows? It's Monday night, and the Rams rally behind Bulger's criticism and play their best game of the year, but lose.

Chicago wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:51 PM | Comments (3)

December 6, 2006

Congrats, David Eckstein: 2006 MOP

Over a month has passed since the St. Louis Cardinals were crowned World Series champions and thankfully the memory of the mediocre level of play has slightly dimmed. Sure, in terms of excitement, it was a good series, but the sheer awfulness of the Tigers' play contributed to the Cardinals title victory.

That's not to detract from the Cardinals' achievement. Over the course of the season they held it together sufficiently to win the NL Central, without convincing many of the likelihood that a WS ring was more than an outside shot. Nevertheless, they dispatched the disappointing San Diego Padres easily and sneaked past an injury-ravaged Mets in seven. Congratulations go to Walt Jocketty and Tony La Russa for a good job in trying circumstances.

The poor quality of much of the play dictated it wasn't easy to pick a MVP. Chris Carpenter pitched one gem, but voters are unlikely to be swayed by a single dominant performance. Jeff Weaver pitched well twice, but only got one victory, in the decisive Game 5. In the end, as many suspected in the third inning of Game 4 when he broke a 0-11 slump, 5-foot-7, 165-pound (has there ever been a more quoted height and weight?) David Eckstein got the nod.

Eckstein probably did enough to merit the award. Nobody from the Cards' roster can claim they were robbed. Scott Rolen might have a brief whine, but that's not unusual.

What followed from the assembled media after Eckstein brought home Aaron Miles in the eighth of Game 4 was an orgy of sugary, sticky, little-guy-makes-good nonsense, backed up by some dubious "statistics," a few heat-of-the-moment quotes from over-excited team mates with a couple of urban myths thrown-in for good measure.

The most used Eckstein-related words are "grit," "scrappy," "heart," and "small". Nobody can argue with small — 5'7" is definitely small in baseball terms. In terms of calculating ability, size has no bearing at all. Size is merely an accident of birth. What counts is what happens on the field.

Grit, scrappy, heart, guts, determination, and the rest of the "attributes" awarded to David Eckstein are largely irrelevant on a baseball diamond. They are useful on a soccer field, where a little guy can run around the field maniacally making tackles and generally being annoying to more talented opponents. Indeed, these are fairly prized attributes, as Claude Makelele and Gennaro Gattuso can testify, both having made a good living doing exactly that.

Grit and scrappiness are much less useful on a baseball diamond. Baseball is a far less chaotic game than soccer, with defined positions and a greater need to perform routine tasks, like fielding ground balls and throwing them to first base. There's no tackling, either, unless you count breaking up double plays, which few do. So "grit" is pretty useless if you can't get to the ball and throw the runner out in one fluid motion.

Grit, determination, and heart have a place in all sports, including baseball. But they are largely superfluous in measuring a successful baseball player who has a bearing on the outcome of games with some degree of regularity. A player who routinely hustles to first on a routine groundout, like that scrappy-little-pesky-gnat David Eckstein, might actually beat the throw 1 in a 100 times due to his "heart." Conversely, a player that likes to jog to first on groundouts, like that gigantic-unscrappy-slacker Manny Ramirez, will never force a poor throw even 1% of the time. But a lineup of Manny Ramirez clones would destroy an All-Grit team. Talent would win-out every time.

Ignoring the determination-hyperbole, just how good a player is David Eckstein? Measuring a lead-off hitter in terms of HRs and RBIs is pointless. Baseball Prospectus has a couple of statistics that give an indication of his comparative worth. EqA is a complex formula that expresses production of hitters independent of league and park (and grit) effects. Its composition is readily available on the web if you're mathematically-minded.

The league average for EqA is defined as .260. Over .300 is a very good hitter. Basically, it's batting average in a tuxedo.

Eckstein's EqA for 2006 was .251, which equated to 21st amongst MLB shortstops. Non-determined, super-slacker Manny Ramirez had an EqA of .342. Eckstein did miss 39 games (very ungritty of him), so we'll move on to VORP and see if he fares better.

VORP is Value Over Replacement Player and is another mathematical equation that calculates how many additional runs over the course of a season a player contributes above average available talent. Eckstein's 2006 VORP is a gnat-like 9.2. To put that in context, he ranks 217th in MLB in VORP. Derek Jeter had a VORP of over 80, which makes him around nine times better than our scrappy little super-hero.

But those guys at Baseball Prospectus are nerdy characters who like computers, unlike true baseball experts like Bill Plaschke and Tim McCarver, who value scrapination and bigheartitude. Instead of complex math, let's take a look at some good old regular normal statistics that Joe Buck could understand.

Given that 2006 was a bit of a bust for our favorite pocket-dynamo, I'll use numbers put up over the 2003, 2004, and 2005 seasons. In comparison to his peers, Eckstein is the poorest contributor in each category. Eckstein is the worst producer in 70% of the categories against a couple of fellow shortstops considered to be average or slightly above and one (Guzman) of below average ability.

So, without any evidence to suggest Eckstein is anything other than below average as a baseball player, we're left to ruminate on Adam Wainwrights' comments during the World Series.

"You just jam him, jam him, jam him, and get him 0-2 and he turns into a foul-ball machine. Get him 0-2 and all of a sudden you've thrown seven pitches to him. And then he gets a hit on 3-2 and you've thrown 13 pitches to him. You take a couple of at-bats like that and it really works the pitch count."

Tiring out pitchers is a fairly useful attribute, though it comes some way behind hitting home runs, extra base hits. and walking. Maybe this, finally, is our hero's forte?

If Wainwrights' comments are true, it would hold up in the regular season — a nice sample size.

Eckstein ranks 82nd in MLB for pitches per plate appearance. The Reds are looking to trade Adam Dunn because he strikes out too much. Dunn ranks 11th in the same category.

David Eckstein recently won the 2006 NL Holiday Inn Look Again Award for "overlooked" role players. One of his challengers for the award was Colorado third baseman Garrett Atkins, who just happened to go .329/.409/.556 in 2006 with barely a mention from Joe Buck and friends.

Posted by Mike Round at 9:35 PM | Comments (2)

A Gift From God

Truly great lives can resonate far beyond the dusty pages of history textbooks. Through their passion, verve, and determination, some live in the consciousness of civilization for eternity. These are the few, for they have changed the cultural fabric of our world. Virginia is proud to call one such man its son.

Arthur Robert Ashe Junior was born in Richmond, on July 10, 1943. Growing up black in segregated society, he faced a daunting and uncertain future from his first breath. A frail and awkward child, he leaned heavily on his mother and was devastated by her death in 1950. Adversity would become a familiar theme in his life.

Aged seven, Ashe began playing tennis at Brookfield Park, a racially divided facility close to his home where his father worked as a parks policeman. "Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can," he would later reflect. Soon enough, his obvious talent attracted the attention of a local coach named Ronald Charity.

Charity arranged for him to spend a summer with Dr Walter Johnson, a man who was later daubed the "godfather of black tennis," having also helped Althea Gibson to the 1957 Wimbledon singles title. Frustrated by having to travel outside of Richmond to compete against white players, Ashe then transferred to Sumner High School in St. Louis for his senior year.

Aided by the dedicated lobbying of Dr. Johnson, the gangly teenager became the first African-American to compete in the interscholastic tournament. With a game based on elegant stroke play and fierce determination, he duly won the competition for Sumner High. Graduating in 1961, he earned a prestigious scholarship at the University of California in Los Angeles, where he gained a B.S in Business Administration and became intercollegiate tennis champion.

In 1963, the Virginian became the first African-American to represent USA in Davis Cup tennis. "Since no black player had ever been in the team, I am now part of history," he wrote in his book Days of Grace. Over a 10-year period, he amassed 27 Davis Cup singles victories from just 32 matches, a record only bettered only by John McEnroe's total of 41.

In a glittering solo career, Ashe won three majors, including the inaugural U.S. Open in 1968. He remains the only African-American to win singles titles at Wimbledon and the Australian Open, reaching number one in the world rankings and winning over 800 matches in the process.

It is through his work outside of the tramlines, however, that Ashe has left an indelible mark on the world. Inside the athlete stood a man as articulate and passionate as any president. "My life has been a failure if all I am remembered for is being a tennis player," he once said.

In 1970, he applied for a travel visa to play in the South African Open in Johannesburg. A routine procedure for any overseas event, Ashe was understandably shocked to see his application denied on the grounds of race. Apartheid had intervened, and with the memory of segregated Richmond close to his heart, he felt compelled to act.

"Some folks call tennis a rich man people's sport, or a white person's game. I guess I started too early because I thought it was something fun to do," he said.

Determined to raise awareness of apartheid, Ashe appealed to the International Lawn Tennis Association, demanding they withdraw South Africa's right to host tour events. He received widespread backing from his fellow professionals, and on March 23, 1970, South Africa was banned from Davis Cup competition.

When John McEnroe was offered $1 million to appear at a showcase event in the South African "homeland" of Bophuthatswana, it was Ashe who convinced him to back out. Such state funded events were no more than elaborate smoke screens, and Ashe demanded apartheid be as transparent as the hypocrisy it fostered.

In 1973, Arthur Ashe was finally granted a visa to play tennis in South Africa; an opportunity he celebrated by becoming the first black athlete to win a title there, claiming the South African Open doubles crown with Tom Okker. "You have shown our black youth that they can compete with whites and win," wrote local poet Don Mattera.

Mattera, a black writer who had grown up in the ghettos of Sophiatown, used his meeting with Ashe to inspire the following poem:

I listened deeply when you spoke

About the step-by-step evolution

Of a gradual harvest,

Tendered by the rains of tolerance

And patience.

Your youthful face,

A mask,

Hiding a pining, anguished spirit,

And I loved you brother —

Not for your quiet philosophy

But for the rage in your soul,

Trained to be rebuked or summoned

South African blacks nicknamed Ashe "sipho", which means "a gift from god" in Zulu, and he continued to fight against apartheid for the rest of his life. "South Africa," he said, "was testing the credibility of Western civilization. If you didn't come out against the most corrupt system imaginable, you couldn't look yourself in the eye.

In 1983, singer Henry Blofield joined Ashe in co-chairing "Artists and Athletes Against Apartheid", encouraging an embargo of South Africa. When Nelson Mandela was released from prison after 27 years, he named Ashe as the American he wanted to meet first. "South Africa could never shrug off racial discrimination without the monumental work of Arthur Ashe," said Mandela.

Following his retirement from professional tennis, Ashe continued to be heavily involved in humanitarian causes. Intent on improving opportunities for underprivileged children, he formed several charitable organizations, including the National Junior Tennis League, the ABC Cities Tennis Program, the Athlete-Career Connection, and the Safe Passage Foundation.

"So many people are just interested in achieving the most in their sport, making the most money they can. He believed there was more to his life on earth than hitting a tennis ball. He took his stature in tennis and parleyed it into a way to impact millions and millions of people," explained 1996 Wimbledon runner-up Malivai Washington.

Both on and off the courts, he was an understated, self-effacing, and humble man, who garnered respect wherever he went. "He had the frailest of bodies, but moved mountains," wrote Sports Illustrated journalist Roy S. Johnson.

Tragically, Ashe was diagnosed HIV positive in 1988, a condition doctors linked to a blood transfusion in 1983. Worried for his family, and the prejudice attached to his plight, he kept the news from the media until April 23, 1992, when fears of a newspaper running the story prompted a press conference announcement. Ashe told the world he had AIDS.

Far from hiding behind the illness, he used his final months to campaign for AIDS awareness, forming the Arthur Ashe Foundation for the Defeat of AIDS and addressing the United Nations on World AIDS day. He was also awarded the first annual AIDS leadership award from the Harvard AIDS institute.

"I do not like being the personification of a problem, much less a problem involving a killer disease, but I know I must seize these opportunities to spread the word," he wrote in Days of Grace.

Arthur Ashe died on February 6, 1993, following a bought of pneumonia. He was just 49-years-old. More than 11,000 people attended funeral services in Richmond and New York City, with mourners all over the world paying tribute to his remarkable life.

"Words cannot suffice to capture a career as glorious, a life as fully lived, or a commitment to justice as firm and as fair as was his," said then New York mayor David N. Dinkins.

Earlier this year, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) recognized Arthur Ashe as the second most influential college athlete in history. Sandwiched between Jackie Robinson and Jesse Owens, he was in distinguished company. Where Robinson had broken barriers in baseball, and Owens in athletics, Ashe had changed professional tennis forever. Future black tennis stars like James Blake will eternally reap the benefits of Ashe's tireless campaigning.

"I owe [Ashe] a great debt of gratitude for being able to deal with the pressures and situations," said Blake. "It took a great man and a great athlete like him to do that ... to really break the color barrier in tennis and be such a great champion; and to be so well respected as a sportsman to where people could really add no disparaging remarks about him with any valid basis ... I'm very grateful."

When Ashe beat Jimmy Connors to win Wimbledon in 1975, he found time to reflect on his journey from segregated Richmond to world conquering black athlete. "When I took the match point, all the support I received over the years came together. It's a long way from Brookfield to Wimbledon."

Posted by Will Tidey at 9:06 PM | Comments (0)

December 5, 2006

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Everyone knows that LaDainian Tomlinson is chasing the single-season TD record, but he's also likely to break Paul Hornung's single-season scoring record, which has stood since 1960.

* Let's give a hand to Rod Bironas and Josh Brown, both of whom made very long kicks at the end of the game to help their teams win this weekend.

* When B.J. Sams got hurt on Thursday, Cris Collinsworth called him a "really, really, really good football player". Sams is a pretty good returner, but three "reallys?"

* What would you have said if someone told you, at the beginning of the season, that the NFL's top four in passer rating right now would be Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, plus Tony Romo and Damon Huard?

* Including Huard, three of the league's top 15 in passer rating have been benched. The others are Mark Brunell and Byron Leftwich.

***

This was quite a week for the Brad O. curse. Everyone has some version of it. You say something, or make a prediction, and immediately something to the contrary occurs. Last week was a banner week for me. I used this space, at the beginning of my column, to remark on the slim — but hardly impossible — playoff hopes of Miami and Washington. Both teams promptly lost. Washington's defeat was especially painful, because I thought the team had a real shot at going 4-1 down the stretch, to finish 8-8 and snag the NFC's last wildcard with tiebreakers over Carolina and Atlanta. Now I think they'll go 5-11.

I mentioned that the Patriots were holding opponents under 20 points. They allowed 21 against Detroit, of all teams. I called a game against the Cardinals reason to celebrate, and St. Louis promptly went out and lost to them, at home. I wrote that the Raiders had a good opportunity to win against Houston, and they got killed.

If I jinxed your team, you have my apologies. For now, let's get on to the power rankings. Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. San Diego Chargers [3] — Three-quarters of the way through the season, there's really not a dominant team, for the first time since 2002. In '03, we had the Patriots and Eagles. In '04, those two and the Steelers. Last season, the Colts. The Chargers have all the weapons to be that team, but they're not really putting teams away, with no double-digit wins since October. I'd love to believe this is their year — I like Marty Schottenheimer and I hope he wins a Super Bowl — but they can't just ride Tomlinson the whole way. There needs to be more production from the passing game.

2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — Did anyone else notice that Bryant Gumbel kept misidentifying tacklers on Thursday night? He credited Ray Lewis on a play when Lewis didn't even touch the guy. Not even jumping on the pile afterwards, just came over and slapped his teammate — the guy who did make the tackle — on the butt. Two plays later, Gumbel did the same thing for Ed Reed. He didn't touch the guy.

3. Dallas Cowboys [5] — Their four-game winning streak is second only to the Chargers, and while Tony Romo had his first really rocky outing since taking over as starter, this team has the balance that champions need. The offense can move the ball on the ground — especially with a larger role for Marion Barber, who's averaging over five yards per carry — and through the air. The defense is terrific. And not to get too excited about Martin Gramatica after one game, but it finally looks like the special teams are okay. I don't think anyone believes Mike Vanderjagt would have made three of those four kicks.

4. Indianapolis Colts [1] — The loss to Tennessee was a surprise, but I don't think anyone who's been paying attention was shocked by it. The Colts are beatable, and the Titans have been playing well recently. Plus, Tennessee nearly beat the Colts when they played earlier this year, and the well-coached Titans do a good job of exploiting opponents' weaknesses, especially run defense. Witness 219 yards on the ground, including 12 first downs and a 6.3 average. Indianapolis has now lost two out of three after starting 9-0.

5. New England Patriots [4] — Committed an uncharacteristic 10 penalties against Detroit, and if the Lions hadn't turned the ball over five times, New England probably would have lost. Laurence Maroney and Mike Vrabel both left Sunday's game with injuries, and if either is serious, that will show on the field.

6. Cincinnati Bengals [9] — After losing three games in a row, and five out of six, they've strung together a hugely impressive three-game win streak. First they go into New Orleans and beat the Saints by two touchdowns. Then they shut out the Browns 30-0 in Cleveland. Now they've beaten the Ravens. Cincinnati needs to be careful about looking ahead to Indianapolis in Week 15, though, or the Raider defense could give them trouble.

7. Chicago Bears [6] — Won despite an offense that probably did more harm than good. The Bears had 107 yards of total offense, just six first downs, and a 19-minute deficit in time of possession. I always pound the drum for balance, but lately, Chicago has been winning on defense and special teams, only. Those units are special, but in the postseason, the Bears will need to score some points. Chicago has fallen to 20th in total offense, and Rex Grossman has been terrible. Lovie Smith is sticking with Grossman for now, but he has a very good backup on the bench, and if this keeps up, Smith has to play Brian Griese.

8. New Orleans Saints [8] — Scored over 30 points in four of the last five games, and they just dominated San Francisco, on offense and defense. Reggie Bush had his best game as a pro, with 168 yards from scrimmage and four TDs. With Vince Young and Bush both playing well, you have to wonder how Houston fans are feeling right now. I feel bad for Mario Williams, because he's going to be compared to these guys throughout his career.

9. Kansas City Chiefs [7] — After four consecutive games holding the opponent below 20 points, the defense reverted to its 2005 form against Cleveland, allowing 31. I didn't see the game, but what happened to Dante Hall? He averaged 13.8 yards on kickoff returns against the Browns. A few years ago, his average was nearly twice that. In 2003, he averaged more on punt returns. I know it's just one game, and short kickoffs played a role, but it seems like Hall's mojo has been stolen by Devin Hester.

10. Seattle Seahawks [12] — Most people will rank them higher than this, but the Seahawks didn't play like a top-10 team on Sunday night. They had almost as many penalties (10) as first downs (12). What the 'Hawks have done well this year is win close games. Their losses have come by an average of 15.5, while Seattle is 4-0 in games decided by a field goal or less.

11. New York Jets [14] — Don't be surprised if the Jets get a big jump in the rankings next week. I toyed with putting them as high as eighth. Since about mid-October, everyone's been worrying that a mediocre Jet squad would make the playoffs because of a weak schedule. Right now, though, the Jets are not mediocre. They're 3-1 since the bye, including a win at New England and blowouts the last two weeks. The loss was to Chicago.

12. Miami Dolphins [10] — Assuming he stays with Miami, Nick Saban will have a tough decision at quarterback this offseason. Daunte Culpepper should be healthy, but the team has been winning with Joey Harrington, and he seems to have the support of his teammates. Neither is an attractive option right now, but it's hard to justify picking up another QB. On the other hand, that could be the one position holding this team back.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars [15] — There's an unwritten rule in power rankings that if two teams are about equal, and one has a recent head-to-head win over another, you rank that team higher. But the inconsistent Jaguars seem like a middle-of-the-pack team to me, and I can't put them in the top 12, though I will if they beat Indy next week. I criticize announcers frequently, so it's only fair to praise them sometimes, too, and I thought Kevin Harlan did a really nice job on the play-by-play for CBS' coverage of this game.

14. Tennessee Titans [19] — Three wins in a row, and five of their last seven. Barring something truly strange, Tennessee can't make the playoffs this season, but it could affect the postseason picture with home games against Jacksonville and New England. Vince Young has improved noticeably from the beginning of the season, and if the Titans can get him some more weapons this offseason, Young in 2007 might look like Donovan McNabb in 2000.

15. Buffalo Bills [17] — Some people won't like seeing them ahead of Carolina, but who would you bet on, the team that kept it close against the Chargers, or the punchless, inconsistent team that lost to the Eagles on Monday night? Since the bye, Buffalo is 3-2, which is pretty middle of the pack anyway, but the losses are to Indy and San Diego. That's pretty good.

16. Carolina Panthers [13] — Jake Delhomme was called for intentional grounding twice before halftime, and he had two costly interceptions late in Monday's game. It just doesn't seem like Delhomme's decision-making has improved since he took over as Carolina's starter almost four years ago. In Week 2, I questioned whether Delhomme's success might have been due to the great players around him, and that continues to seem likely. I'm not saying he's awful, but you certainly wouldn't put him in the top half of the league's starting QBs.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers [20] — It's too late to salvage their season, but the Steelers have won three out of the last four games. Pittsburgh didn't have a great game on offense, but committed only one turnover — that's serious progress for a team that had been averaging three a game — and got an exceptional performance from the defense.

18. New York Giants [16] — Drop two spots, but not because of their tight loss to Dallas, which is nothing to be ashamed of. The problem here is the pattern of losing, four games in a row now. That four-game losing streak coincides exactly with the games in which Michael Strahan has not played. Against the Cowboys, New York had nine penalties for 94 yards, bringing their season total over 700 penalty yards. On Sunday, that included three false starts (at home, no less) and three personal fouls.

19. Philadelphia Eagles [22] — I seldom agree with Tony Kornheiser, but he's right about Jeff Garcia. Eagles fans: you don't want A.J. Feeley. You want Garcia. The Dolphins didn't want Feeley. The Chargers cut him. Garcia is a three-time Pro Bowler, effective as a runner and a passer, with some serious toughness and heart — and he's played well in relief of Donovan McNabb. I don't know what more you want out of him.

20. Denver Broncos [11] — Three losses in a row at this point, and while they've lost to good teams, they've looked ugly doing it, with two of the losses at home. The Broncos are also without middle linebacker Al Wilson, who suffered a scary neck injury, and they're starting a rookie quarterback. Jay Cutler did not look good on Sunday night, and Mike Shanahan didn't seem comfortable with him. Watching the game, I wondered if Shanahan started Cutler because he thought the rookie gave them the best chance to win, or because of pressure from fans and players. It would be surprising if Denver makes the playoffs at this point, and that's a huge disappointment after their great start.

21. Cleveland Browns [28] — This team has gone 3-4 since the bye, against a tough schedule, including wins against the Jets, Falcons, and Chiefs. Cleveland's defense isn't an elite unit, but there are some playmakers here, especially in the linebacking corps. Willie McGinest has played just as well as he did in New England, and rookie first-round draft pick Kamerion Wimbley has a sack in four of the last five games.

22. Atlanta Falcons [25] — The embodiment of a .500 team. They're 3-3 at home and 3-3 on the road. They're 4-4 against NFC opponents and 2-2 against AFC opponents. They're 2-2 in their division. So why are they ranked in the 20s? Because they've lost four out of the last five, and the only one of those that was close was at home against Cleveland, the team ranked directly above them.

23. Washington Redskins [18] — Ladell Betts has looked terrific filling in for Clinton Portis, but the team can't just hand off on every play. When the Falcons adjusted their defense to make Jason Campbell throw, Washington's 14-0 first quarter lead disappeared. Washington fans knew this was coming — inexperienced QBs have games like this — but it stung after a win that sparked talk of a playoff run. Injuries in the defensive backfield have really hurt this team.

24. San Francisco 49ers [23] — One of three teams that's been outscored by over 100 points this season (Tampa and Green Bay are the others). The Niners are actually 4-2 at home, but they're 1-5 on the road. Alex Smith has looked pretty good this season, but he's struggled the last two weeks, with five interceptions.

25. Minnesota Vikings [27] — In their first six games, the Vikings didn't allow an opponent to score 20 points. Then they played New England and had their pass defense exposed on national television. From that point, Minnesota is 1-5 and hasn't held anyone but San Francisco under 20 points. Of course, this isn't just about the defense. I'm not sure what has happened to Brad Johnson, but it's not good.

26. Green Bay Packers [21] — Ahman Green had a nice game, but the defense got rocked and Brett Favre had three turnovers. You've got to feel sorry for Favre, even though everyone knew he was making a mistake — or at least putting himself in this situation — by coming back for 2006. It kills him, and presumably the rest of the Packers, to be 1-5 at home. The Lambeau mystique, so powerful in the late 1990s and early 2000s, is gone.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [24] — For most of the season, I've kept them out of the very bottom of the rankings, but the Bucs have lost five of their last six games, all by at least 14 points. I mean, they're not even keeping the games respectable any more. Bruce Gradkowski looks like exactly what he is: a rookie sixth-round draft choice forced into the starting lineup because of an injury.

28. St. Louis Rams [26] — Blown out by the Cardinals, which is pretty much the ultimate embarrassment in the NFL, but Steven Jackson had another strong game. Jackson has over 1,000 rushing yards, but he also has 72 catches for 622 yards, which is reminiscent of his predecessor, Marshall Faulk. Jackson trails only Tomlinson and Larry Johnson in yards from scrimmage.

29. Houston Texans [30] — Miserable offensive performance against Oakland. Including five sacks for 37 yards, Houston finished the game with negative net passing yardage, and the Texans had fewer than half as many first downs as the Raiders. How the team wins games like this is entirely beyond me. I suppose +3 in turnovers and a defensive TD help, but still.

30. Oakland Raiders [29] — The good news is: who do you want in the 2007 draft? It's you and the Lions at the top of the board.

31. Arizona Cardinals [31] — When two bad teams meet, no one should be surprised at a mistake-filled game, but it's not often that both teams have double-digit penalties, as the Cardinals and Rams did on Sunday. Arizona finally had a good day rushing the ball, with three TDs by Marcel Shipp and a 100-yard game from Edgerrin James.

32. Detroit Lions [32] — After they scared New England, some people may want them out of the basement. But the Lions are 2-10 and have lost four straight. They could beat Minnesota next week, but after that there's not much hope on the schedule. The last two are against the Bears and Cowboys — no discussion necessary there — and the other is at Green Bay. The Packers are very beatable, but Detroit is 0-6 is on the road. In fact, during the Matt Millen Era, the Lions are an incredible 5-41 on the road.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 8:34 PM | Comments (0)

It's "Melo" Time in Denver

After losing their first three games of the season by a combined total of 6 points, the Denver Nuggets have put together a 10-2 run.

During this stretch, star forward Carmelo Anthony has been scorching opposing teams. He has scored 30 or more points in 12 of his last 13 games. In the one sub-30 point effort, he contributed 29 points in a win against the Bulls.

Anthony's prolific scoring has garnered the attention of the league. He has been named player of the week each of the last two weeks.

Anthony was selected with the third overall pick in the 2003 draft. Prior to his selection, Denver had not made the playoffs for eight years and had been mired in management and personnel changes that seemed to evidence the team's inability to make the right changes to become a contender.

Then the Nuggets got it right — they grabbed Anthony in the draft and made him the cornerstone of their rebuilding plan. That plan seems to be coming together nicely for Denver.

The Nuggets have made the playoffs in each of the first three years of Anthony's career with Denver. However, while making the playoffs each of those years has provided some gauge of the team's rebuilding process, the Nuggets have fallen short of their potential. Losing in the first round of the playoffs for three years has provided incentive to prove themselves as more than an easy out in the first round of the playoffs.

A little more than a month into the 2006-2007 season, early indications are that the Nuggets have the ability to make more of an impact in the postseason this year. Denver is 4-2 against teams that made the playoffs last year.

One of the most satisfying wins to date this season was on November 26th over the Los Angeles Clippers — the team that eliminated them from last year's playoffs. The Nuggets won by 15 and perhaps proved to themselves that they have improved since last year's early exit from the playoffs.

Much of the Nuggets success is due to the continuing emergence of Anthony as a consistent scoring machine. Scoring at a 26-points-per-game clip last season on 48% shooting from the field, Anthony has upped the ante so far this season averaging nearly 32 points per game and an improved 52% field goal percentage.

Anthony's role as a leader on the team is developing, as well. He is earning the respect of his teammates and sets the tone on the court and in the locker room.

Anthony has quickly become a fan favorite in Denver by his play on the court. But his off-court generosity through his charitable foundation and a recent $3 million commitment to his alma mater, Syracuse, have shown his willingness to give back, as well.

Anthony was named one of three captains (along with fellow members of the 2003 draft class, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade) to the 2006 USA World Championship Team. Wade already has one championship ring and Anthony and James may well figure into the championship scene in the future.

The Nuggets have never made it to the conference finals, let alone the NBA finals. Carmelo Anthony may just be the superstar needed to finally take them there.

The season is still young and whether Denver has all of the right pieces in place to make a serious run is yet to be seen, but the Nuggets are certainly headed in the right direction and will likely make some noise in this year's postseason.

Todd Beckstead is founder of MonsterDraft.com, a site dedicated to helping with fantasy football drafts.

Posted by Todd Beckstead at 7:48 PM | Comments (1)

December 4, 2006

NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch

I've got an issue with the class system in college basketball. Despite the fact that the sport has the greatest collection of young writers/commentators/analysts of any major sport (Andy Katz, Jay Bilas, and Doug Gottlieb at ESPN, and Luke Winn at CNNSI among my favorites), the antiquated classification system of "major" vs "mid-major" vs "low mid-major" is allowed to live on in the national consciousness.

The problem with the term "mid-major" is that it's too general and encompassing to mean anything, like "winning the war" or "peace in the Middle East." It puts conferences like the Atlantic 10 elbow-to-elbow with giants like the Big East or ACC, while relegating much better conferences like the Missouri Valley to a hodgepodge that can range anywhere from the Colonial to the Sun Belt, MAC to WAC. (According to CollegeInsider.com)

Fitting everybody into "major" or "non-major" is like saying there are only rich people and not rich people, when there are also obscenely rich people, super rich people, middle class people, trailer-park-poor people, ghetto-projects-poor people, and homeless people (and even there you have New York Skid Row homeless vs. San Diego Beach Bum homeless). Rich and not rich just doesn't cut it.

And so in honor of Sir Edmund Burke, who once said, "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little," I'm going to do my little part to rectify this injustice. I'm killing the term mid-major, and all the false pretense that goes with it.

(Who the hell is Mr. Edmund Burke? He was a member of the British House of Commons who supported the American colonies in their grievances against King George, eventually leading to the revolution, eventually leading to the first amendment, eventually leading to the July 10, 1985 edition of Playboy. That's who.)

And so here it is, five new classes of conferences, broken into expected tournament bids and temporarily named after American political parties in honor of the inspiration for this little revolution, Sir Burke. (I'm open to suggestions for permanent replacements.)

Tier 1 - Republican* (anywhere from 4 to 8 bids)
Pacific-10, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, ACC

Tier 2 - Democrat* (anywhere from 2 to 4 bids)
Atlantic-10, Conference USA, Missouri Valley

Tier 3 - Libertarian (anywhere from 1 to 3 bids)
Mountain West, Western Athletic, Colonial

Tier 4 - Green (1 bid, maybe 2 depending on conference tournaments)
Horizon, Mid-American, West Coast, Sun Belt

Tier 5 - Communist (1 bid, that's it, nobody higher than a 13 seed)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern

* Why Republicans in front of Democrats? Because even if the Democrats controlled the Senate, Congress and White House, there would still be more millionaire Republicans. Speaking of which, I think Karl Rove threw the '06 mid-terms, giving Dems control of the House and Senate in order to absolve Republicans of sole responsibility for leadership prior to the '08 Presidential election. If the Republicans were still in charge of the whole shebang, national momentum would have gone heavily in favor of the opposition party in the next election. With a partisan split between the legislative and executive branches, Republicans can leverage the lame duck Bush administration in order to create frustration and divisiveness in the Democratic party, giving Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Howard Dean more than enough rope to hang themselves and their party, and paving the way for a John McCain/Mitt Romney administration.

***

Now, with all that said, I can finally get to the point of this column, the first official Sports Central 2007 NCAA Tournament Sleeper Watch. (There was one unofficial one, though I didn't know it to be unofficial at the time. Air Force, New Mexico, San Diego State, Missouri, Washington State, and Houston were the first class. Four of those teams are still alive.)

(Speaking of overused terms, the argument can certainly be made that the term "sleeper" is just as much abused as "mid-major." This might be a good time to mention that I am completely fine with all forms of hypocrisy and double standards.)

The Objective

To identify "underdog" teams capable of making at least a Sweet 16 run as an eight-seed or lower in the 2007 NCAA tournament. The "underdog" classification is defined in the rules below.

The Rules

1. No team ranked in the preseason top five of a Tier 1 conference is eligible. (Exception 1: In the SEC, no team ranked in the top three of either division is eligible. Exception 2: For some stupid reason, the Big 10 doesn't release the entire preseason coaches poll, only the top three. So I'm using Rivals' preseason projections instead.)

2. No team ranked in the preseason top two of a Tier 2 conference is eligible.

3. Any team from a Tier 3, 4, or 5 conference is eligible, unless disqualified under rules No. 4 or 5.

4. No team ranked in the top 25 of the current week is eligible. The ESPN/USA Today Poll is the poll of record.

5. Gonzaga is not eligible, even if they drop out of the top 25. (Sorry. They've had their sleeper status revoked for at least five years.)

Teams that would have been on the list if not disqualified by Rules No. 1 or No. 2 — Illinois (picked third in Big 10), Michigan (picked fifth in Big 10), Arkansas (picked third in the SEC West), Florida State (picked fifth in the ACC), Oregon (picked fifth in the Pac-10), Kansas State (picked fifth in the Big 12), Xavier (picked first in the A-10), Houston (picked second in Conference USA)**, Southern Illinois (picked second in Missouri Valley)

Teams disqualified by Rule 4 — Butler (#14), Wichita State (#16), Maryland (#22), Air Force (#23), Michigan State (#25)

Teams disqualified by Rule 5 — Gonzaga

The Watch List

1. Virginia (ACC)
2. Clemson (ACC)
3. Villanova (Big East)
4. Missouri (Big 12)
5. Missouri State (Missouri Valley)
6. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
7. South Carolina (SEC)
8. Notre Dame (Big East)
9. Dayton (A-10)
10. San Diego State (Mountain West)
11. New Mexico (Mountain West)
12. Nebraska (Big 12)
13. St. Louis (A-10)
14. Purdue (Big Ten)
15. Providence (Big East)
16. Marist (Metro Atlantic)
17. Winthrop (Big South)
18. Wake Forest (ACC)
19. Washington State (Pac-10)
20. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

The not-quite-but-maybe list (in alphabetical order): Akron, Bradley, Charlotte, Drexel, George Mason, George Washington, Kent State, Loyola (Ill.), Loyola Marymount, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern State, Old Dominion, Pennsylvania, Virginia Commonwealth, Western Michigan, Wyoming.

** Of my original six, Houston and Air Force (now ranked) have been disqualified by the official rules. The Mountain West (San Diego State, New Mexico) is a Tier 3 conference. Missouri was picked eighth in the Big 12. Washington State was picked 10th in the Pac-10.

***

Well, there it is. In future editions of the Sleeper Watch, we'll take closer looks at the individual teams, tracking their progress as the season moves along. Beginning with the first Watch in January, we'll start adding the RPI into the mix (it's too early now). In February, we'll get you ready for the conference tournaments, then try to predict the entire field of 65. And, of course, once the matchups are announced, we'll see if we can't call an upset or two.

Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis, MO. His weekly NFL picks and daily NCAA men's basketball picks can be found at The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:08 PM | Comments (4)

Congress to Tinker With BCS?

House representative Joe Barton sounds like a simple man from a simple town. But he's heading up a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee of Congress (it's their job to regulate America's sports industry) to conduct research on the Bowl Championship Series and hold hearings, if necessary, if the BCS Bowl selections cause the uproar they did last year.

And I couldn't be happier.

In a statement made last week, committee chairman Rep. Joe Barton said, "College football is ... a billion-dollar business that Congress cannot ignore." He also said that he plans to hold what he calls a "comprehensive review" of the BCS rankings system and the system for which different bowls put in bids for different collegiate teams.

Is anyone jumping up and down yet?

Congress is listening to us. Because college football is much more widespread than the 32 organizations that make up professional football, the individual members of Congress are more likely (and apparently are) more affected by the injustice many NCAA commissioners call the BCS rankings system.

I, for one, welcome Congress to intervene as much as they want. Tear the BCS apart, give us a playoff system and make December and January for college football what March is for college basketball.

I can see it now: "Can't wait for March Madness? Here's two months of nothing but college football to tide you over." Sure, it's not catchy, but who needs a tag-line with a product like that?

Can you imagine it? Take all the conference winners and runner-ups (and add in a few at-large bids, as well) and you've got about 24 teams. Give the top right teams a bye the first week and (for all you math majors) that gives us five weeks of football with the nation's top 24 teams. Now you've got a bracket that blows the NCAA basketball system out of the water.

Division II football has it. So does Division III. And when those games reach the championship, it's always a No. 5 battling a No. 2 until the last few seconds tick off the clock. The USC/Texas championship game last year was the best national championship game in college football I've ever watched. But think of all the others we could have done without: Florida's 52-20 rout over Florida State in 1996? Yawn. Miami's 37-14 domination of Nebraska in the 2002 Rose Bowl? Wake me when it's over.

Give me two teams that have gone five weeks through the gauntlet. Give me two squads of players that have stood up against the LSU's, the Ohio State's, and the Florida's and have earned the right to play one more game for the national championship. Just don't give me two teams that haven't played in four weeks and aren't in a battle-ready state of mind because they just took their Biology 101 final.

Please, Congress?

Posted by Ryan Day at 9:28 PM | Comments (1)

December 3, 2006

Why McGwire Belongs in Cooperstown

If I submitted a Baseball Hall of Fame ballot this year, it would look like this:

Tony Gwynn
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Mark McGwire *

At the bottom of the ballot would be an "*" with a note scribbled beside it:

"Dear sirs ... I understand that, for many voters, keeping Mark McGwire out of the Baseball Hall of Fame this year is an important statement against the culture of performance-enhanced corruption that has forever tainted the careers of potential immortals and the integrity of the game itself. I would like nothing more than to join their campaign, and would request you revoke my vote for Mr. McGwire after one specific condition is met:

"When New York Daily News columnist and author Mike Lupica donates the equivalent of his advance and royalties from the book "Summer of '98: When Homers Flew, Records Fell, and Baseball Reclaimed America" to the charity of his choice. This symbolic action will validate that the mainstream media understands its hypocrisy in prohibiting Mr. McGwire from enshrinement while having been complicit with, been supportive of and reaped the considerable benefits from the careers of alleged 'cheaters' like him for the last two decades."

Baseball writers hate it when reality ruins their romanticism. They all want to be like their fathers, who spun fabulous tales of legendary players without having to define the differences between the cream and the clear. They live for the myth, so much so that when two players — two players — began hitting more home runs in the same season than anyone had since 1961, they embraced the feats like their daddies would embrace them after a difficult loss in a little league championship game.

That most of them have reversed course and vowed to punish McGwire, and any other alleged or confirmed user of illegal performance-enhancing drugs, is comedic. If you didn't have a problem then, you shouldn't have a problem now. And if your argument is that you really had no inclination that McGwire was dirty before his non-denial denial in front of Congress, I have some magic beans I'm sure you'd be interested in purchasing ... and I'll toss in this bridge in Brooklyn.

To believe steroids hadn't infiltrated baseball, you'd have to ignore two decades of Lyle Alzado, Vince McMahon, West German Olympians, the entire sport of bodybuilding, a swirl of rumors about the Bash Brothers in the late-1980s and several Afterschool Specials about 'roid rage; not to mention light-hitting shortstops who were suddenly belting 20 homers a season and pitchers, who previously saw their careers end in their early 30s, striking out people into their early 40s.

I've always had my suspicions about McGwire and his ilk, but never really cared enough to become outraged because baseball never cared either. If steroids weren't important enough for the owners and the players to come together for a comprehensive testing plan and draconian penalties for usage, then they were being quietly endorsed as a part of the game. And if that's the case, then we're talking about a "steroid era," and you can't hold anyone who used during it accountable — besides the fact that McGwire has never tested positive for anything other than a chronic case of tediousness.

Writers like Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Tribune don't think that last fact matters: "Rather than dirtying up the place, why don't we wait until there's hard evidence showing he didn't use steroids?"

Guilty until proven innocent ... how patriotic.

ESPN Classic has been nice enough to have me as a commentator on a few segments of its program "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame." One of the shows listed the reasons why you can't blame steroids for the home run explosion, and I felt it made a compelling case for why this steroid issue is so difficult to suss out. How much did weight-training contribute to McGwire's success, or his use of Androstenedione rather than anabolic steroids? How much did improved techniques for hitting? How much did nutrition and advancements in basic men's health enable him to do what he did? Will we ever really know where McGwire's talent began and where the drugs ended?

My colleague at SportsFan Magazine, Sean Sweeney, recently made the comparison between McGwire and Pete Rose, claiming that Rose's banishment from the Hall of Fame sets a precedent for voters to shun McGwire. To me, the differences couldn't be more stark: Rose is on Major League Baseball's ineligible list, and thus is on the Baseball Hall of Fame's, as well. But more to the point, Rose was in a position to influence not only his own team, but other teams in a predetermined manner in order to win a wager; McGwire could have taken every steroid he could get his meaty paws on, but he still had to hit a baseball and have eight other guys in the lineup do the same to determine if the paying customers go home happy.

(By the way, this week's most unintentionally hilarious moment came when retired pitcher Brett Saberhagen told the Kansas City Star that he would decline enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame unless Rose was finally allowed in. Wow, that's quite a stand he's taking, considering that he's got zippy chance of getting into Cooperstown without buying a ticket. It's sort of like if I said I'll never participate in a threesome with Angelina Jolie and Jessica Alba unless someone gave me the ability to fly.)

Logically, there's not a single reason to keep McGwire out. He has the stats, he has the aura, and he has the longevity. The argument being made against him is one of morality — "character," as the voting guidelines define it — which in this case is clouded with innuendo. He's never tested positive, he's never admitted anything. Jose Canseco's book might as well be the Baseball Writers' anabolic bible.

But Canseco, and other whistleblowers, are the real danger in keeping McGwire out as a moral stand. The Los Angeles Times has already reported that Jason Grimsley dropped a dime on Roger Clemens and Miguel Tejada, who have both denied using steroids. Can the same writers who object to McGwire's candidacy based on innuendo make Roger Clemens a Hall of Famer? What about Gary Sheffield, fingered by the San Francisco Chronicle as a BALCO baby? And what about the next former player who the feds flip or who decides to cash in with a book that accuses a bunch of his compatriots of cheating?

Where does it end?

It ends with McGwire, that's where. It ends with the Hall of Fame voters endorsing the notion that there will be a dozen or more players from "The Steroid Era" who have the credentials for enshrinement, were never caught cheating, but will be forever saddled by accusations that they did. Vote 'em in, give 'em a plaque, and then explain to your kid the subtle differences between this McGwire guy and that Mays gentlemen on the other side of the room.

And, for God's sake, stop pretending that having a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame is some sort of higher calling when there have been writers who've cast their lots for the "immortality" of Bill Gullickson, Danny Tartabull, and Juan Samuel.

Greg Wyshynski is the Features Editor for SportsFan Magazine in Washington, DC, and the Senior Sports Editor for The Connection Newspapers of Northern Virginia. His book is "Glow Pucks and 10-Cent Beer: The 101 Worst Ideas in Sports History." His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 7:47 PM | Comments (0)

December 1, 2006

Helping NBA Milllionaires Manage

Hummers. Escalades. Custom Rolexes. Champagne rooms. These things go with the territory for many NBA players, helping spark sportswriters such as the New York Times' William Rhoden to wonder if today's star athletes are not "$40 Million slaves". While some may be slave to a luxurious lifestyle, none of them can play sports forever.

Lisa A. Vander of San Diego, author of "The Real Guide to Making Millions Through Real Estate", helps the tallest millionaires invest their capital. I spoke with her regarding her work with the ballers.

SC: How did you begin your work with the NBA?

LV: I was invited to speak at the players' annual meeting in the Bahamas. I addressed all the players about real estate investment. The initial idea was to come in once a year to speak with the rookies as part of their orientation. I also offered a class in New York twice a year to remind the players about sound real estate strategies.

SC: Do you advise players about new real estate development, existing properties, or both?

LV: We cover holdings and new property. We establish the ground rules for building a strong portfolio, and how to adjust strategies to current market trends. I also teach them how to grow their established investments.

SC: Describe your current interaction with the league as a client.

LV: I go around to each team to discuss real estate. I'm designing a newsletter for the players. And the players' union is buying my book.

SC: Given that the players have their own accountants and lawyers, does that make your work with them awkward?

LV: If their portfolio is in poor shape, they are extremely vulnerable. I recommend that they stabilize it, and I discuss my book with their representative. I make it clear that before we add assets into their portfolio we must build a strong foundation.

SC: How important is technology to players' research and updates on their holdings?

LV: In the beginning, it plays a huge role. The players are very tech savvy, and with the proper access to information, they're ready to rock and roll. A lot of this is new for the industry, and the general audience is still learning it, but for the average age of the players, it's a tremendous help.

SC: How do you work in terms of the other areas in which the players are already invested?

LV: Real estate is unlike CDs, bonds, or their other investments. They might have solid areas, or general partnerships, but still be vulnerable in terms of real estate. They need to know hat different factors effect the housing market. It's much more complex than the stock market. I'm putting together a CD for them, and hope to produce a DVD they can watch in the hotel, or while they're driving or on the plane.

SC: Do you advocate that they own property near the city they play in or are from, (so players can keep their eye on them or are more familiar) or do you suggest properties anywhere, based on their potential?

LV: One doesn't have to own near where they work or live. Assets should be diversified, and the total market examined. We're looking for the highest potential for appreciation or cash flow in a diverse market. Players should diversify by sector, cycle, and region. You can't do this by only investing where you live.

SC: How have the players responded to your input?

LV: Really well. They learn fast and they want to learn, to know things. These guys want to help their families, and to become stable financially. I'm impressed with how many have foundations, and charities. Learning to invest well in real estate is part of the big picture for them.

SC: Thank you, Ms. Vander, and we wish you well in your endeavors.

LV: Thank you.

Posted by Bijan C. Bayne at 10:57 PM | Comments (0)

Rory Fitzpatrick: NHL All-Star?

This year, the NHL has decided to change up the way it handles it's all-star voting. Instead of only allowing a restricted number of votes from each online IP address, it has decided to let the fans go crazy and vote as many times as they want to as part of their "Click to Vote" campaign. The NHL, however, did not expect the fans to react like this.

Rory Fitzpatrick, a relatively unknown and unspectacular defenseman for the Vancouver Canucks, is currently No. 12 in the all-star voting, with 31,310 votes, according to the official website of the NHL. He is the only "write-in candidate" of recent history to receive any noticeable fan recognition. The case for Fitzpatrick, who would normally only receive the votes of family members and perhaps a few of his close friends, all started on an Internet message board called HFboards.com.

A man by the moniker "lecherous" posted the idea on November 19 stating: "if we vote in the one player who probably deserves it the least, imagine the awesomeness that would come from that."

The idea has now spread to the point that there are YouTube videos supporting the cause, fans holding up "Vote for Rory" signs in stadiums across the NHL, and even media outlets in Canada and the United States picking up the story and interviewing the originator. VoteForRory.com has also been created to provide updates on the campaign.

The concept started out with fans trying to prove that the NHL voting policy was bogus, but it has now grown to the point where many truly believe that stuffing the ballots with Fitzpatrick's name is a just cause to support a hard-working athlete as opposed to a naturally gifted one.

Fitzpatrick is deep in the Canucks defensive depth chart and has yet to record a point in 16 games this season. He has been a longtime journeyman in the NHL and always earned the respect of those around him by trying his hardest every time he has stepped on the ice. He first turned heads this year by winning the Vancouver Canucks' shooting accuracy competition in their 2006 SuperSkills event earlier this month. Now he is turning them one more time.

Fitzpatrick currently trails the leading vote-receiving defensemen, Scott Niedermayer and Nicklas Lidstrom, by nearly 200,000 votes each. However, the ball has just started rolling in the "Vote for Rory" campaign.

Upon hearing the news of the internet movement to get him in the event, Fitzpatrick told the Vancouver Daily Province that he was getting a kick out of all the attention. "You have to give credit to the people who have put it all together. They did a great job. It's pretty funny."

If fans continue to prove the power of mass communication and the internet, then Fitzpatrick truly does stand a chance to make the big game. Not only would Rory Fitzpatrick represent the Vancouver Canucks in Dallas, home of the event, but he would also be representing the "Average Joe's" of this world.

"Vote for Rory" represents everything that is pure and noble in an market that hypes big named players and the gifted athletes that put up all the stats. Fitzpatrick is just a regular hard-working guy who is trying his best without recognition day in and day out.

Why not recognize him for his efforts? The All-Star Game is all about showing the fans what they want to see. Why not choose to see perseverance for a change? Vote for Rory and make a difference.

"If I'm going to get it," Fitzpatrick laughed, "I'm going to need a lot of help, that's for sure."

Posted by Chad Kettner at 10:30 PM | Comments (5)

Another Eventful Week in the EPL

It's been an eventful week in the English Premiership.

On Sunday, Sir Alex Ferguson's rejuvenated Manchester United "welcomed" reigning champions Chelsea to Old Trafford. To the delight of the packed crowd, the Red Devils struck first when Louis Saha collected Wayne Rooney's sliderule pass and curled an exquisite shot past Carlo Cudicini.

Chelsea are made of stern stuff these days, though. Wisely altering their narrow first half formation, coach Jose Mourinho introduced Arjen Robben on the flank. In so doing, "the special one" transformed the game. Midway through the second half, Ricardo Carvalho's towering header gave them a well-earned point and they remain dangerously poised three points behind United.

Off the field, the action has been equally absorbing. Liverpool striker Craig Bellamy was cleared of assaulting two women in Cardiff. "It's fantastic — a big relief," said the 27-year-old Wales international, who is rarely far from the headlines.

Elsewhere, ex-Premiership star Ronnie Wallwork was stabbed seven times in an altercation outside a Manchester nightclub. The former Manchester United and West Brom player is recovering well.

Finally, to the transfer news. Manchester United have signed Henrick Larsson on a two-month loan starting in January. The ex-Barcelona star, who is currently playing for Swedish side Helsingborg, will return to Sweden in time for the re-start of their league after the winter break.

Freddie Adu, the teenage soccer prodigy who signed a $1m endorsement deal with Nike at age 14, is also linked with a move to United. The 17-year-old is currently on a two-week trial with the club, although laws do not permit a formal move until he turns 18. Chelsea are also interested.

This weekend sees a major London derby, with Arsenal playing Tottenham at Emirates stadium. The Gunners, who lost to Bolton on Wednesday night, will be without Thierry Henry as they try to salvage their ailing campaign.

Catch the game at 7.45 AM eastern time on FOX Soccer.

Posted by Will Tidey at 10:04 PM | Comments (1)