College Football Predictions: Week 12

I love this week's card. I don't always play all of the games I breakdown here personally, but this week I will almost certainly have something riding on all of these. Good luck and enjoy.

YTD Record

1* = 9-5-1
2* = 9-7-1
3* = 8-6

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I will be playing this team for a large chunk of money (very confident)

No. 8 West Virginia @ Pittsburgh +11.5, Thursday 7:45 PM, ESPN

Pittsburgh enters this Thursday's "Backyard Brawl" on the heels of a three game losing streak. They'll have to turn things around in a hurry if they hope to finish on the plus side of .500. West Virginia bounced back from their defeat to Louisville with a victory over Cincinnati last week. A win over Pittsburgh and their meeting to end the year with Rutgers will almost certainly be for the Big East's BCS bid.

Pittsburgh has fallen of the face of the Earth since beginning the year 6-1. It doesn't get much worse than their overtime loss last week to UConn, a loss in which the Panthers surrendered 340 yards on the ground to the Huskies. West Virginia might very well rush for 500 yards, but that doesn't mean their defense is going to be able to stop a balanced Pittsburgh offensive attack. West Virginia better not be looking ahead to Rutgers.

The play: Pittsburgh 2*

No. 21 Maryland @ No. 20 Boston College –7, 12 PM, ESPN

It seems to keep coming up in all of my columns, but here we have yet another game that will be instrumental in determining the ACC Atlantic title. If Maryland wins, they will play Wake Forest for a bid in the conference title game next week. A Boston College victory would muddle the picture further.

This game reminds me a lot of another ACC game that took place back in Week 8. In that game, Georgia Tech was a public underdog at Clemson and Clemson ended up crushing them. I played Clemson in that one, and while that result has no bearing on this game, I am going to take Boston College using the same angle.

The play: Boston College 2*

No. 2 Michigan +7 @ No. 1 Ohio St, 3:30 PM, ABC

This is the big one. I don't need to elaborate. Instead, I'll use this space to teach a very basic yet important sports wagering lesson. Big game does not = big wagering opportunity. The sportsbooks are extra careful when they set lines for these marquee games because this type of game generates a huge handle for them. In this case, they win simply by setting a line that will get them split action.

As for the game itself, there really isn't going to be an anti-public side to this one. I could make a case for both sides, which means I won't be playing this game big personally. The thing I keep coming back to when I evaluate this game is that I am not certain Ohio State's defense has truly been tested yet. Yes, I know they held Texas to seven points, but that was before Colt McCoy was fully broken in, and Texas still ran for 5.5 yards a carry in that contest. After the trip to Austin, the Ohio State schedule was full of teams that really don't bring much to the table on offense.

I am not confident enough in the Wolverine passing attack to forecast an outright victory in this contest, but I think they are the smart choice in this one at +6 or better.

The play: Michigan 1*

No. 7 Rutgers @ Cincinnati +7, 7:45 PM, ESPN

If Rutgers wins this game and the one in Morgantown next week, then they deserve to play in the national title game as 21-point underdogs to the Michigan/Ohio State winner. I know the Big East is weak, I know the SEC is very strong, I know Rutgers hasn't beaten anyone good from another conference, but they shouldn't be punished because they weren't ranked in the utterly useless preseason polls. That is the main reason they are only No. 7 right now. Auburn being left out in '05 was a crime against the SEC, but a 12-0 Rutgers team being included wouldn't be such.

Go ahead and take a deep breath, Florida and Arkansas fans, Rutgers probably won't even leave Ohio undefeated this weekend, let alone survive their trip to Morgantown. This is a really bad spot for the Scarlet Knights as they are facing a textbook sandwich game on the road against a steadily improving Cincinnati squad. Per usual, I'll be taking the points, but an outright Cincinnati victory is a real possibility.

The play: Cincinnati 3*

No. 17 Cal +6 @ No. 3 USC, 8:00 PM, ABC

Hidden beneath the shadow of the Ohio State/Michigan game lies what could be the most exciting game of the year. If USC can pull this one off, they will almost certainly inherit the BCS championship game slot that will have been vacated by the loser of the game in Columbus.

I've been eyeing this game for quite some time. I don't think anything separates Cal and USC, and while Cal's loss last week at Arizona was a bit disheartening, it probably added three points to this spread. I'll be taking the points in what could be one of my larger plays of the year. I think the Bears have a good chance to win this one outright, which would knock USC completely out of the BCS mix. I'll almost certainly be taking USC next week over Notre Dame. A USC loss this week will make them shorter favorites next week or so, I hope.

The play: Cal 3*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.