BCS Scene: Crystal or Mud?

The BCS picture could do one of two things in the next month: either become crystal clear or as clear as used motor oil. Once again, the college football season is turning out to be an exciting and — potentially — controversial one, depending on what happens over the remaining four weeks. But whatever the outcome, it should be a dandy to watch.

First off, what could be more satisfying to college football fans than to see one of the greatest rivalries involve the top two teams in the land? Of course, both No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan have a game before their big tilt on Nov. 18, but is there any reason to believe one or the other won't stay undefeated? The Buckeyes have Northwestern (3-7) while the Wolverines face Indiana (5-5) before the big showdown in Columbus. A loss by either team would probably out-shadow Southern Cal's loss to Oregon State a couple weeks ago.

If the predictions hold true and both are unbeaten after this weekend, the only certainty prior to the game will be the fact that the winner will play in the national championship game come January. The bigger question, though, is who will they face?

Fresh off a stunning come-from-behind win over Louisville, Rutgers has entered the discussion. At No. 13 in the BCS, even if they finish undefeated, getting a shot at the title game will be a long one. And, getting to 12-0 might be a bit of a feat, as well, since they end the season at West Virginia, who definitely are playing the rest of the season with a chip on their shoulder after being manhandled at Louisville last week. Essentially, the Scarlet Knights' role for the rest of the year will be spoiler for schools ahead of them in the BCS.

One other team has the likelihood of finishing the season with an unblemished record — Boise State. It seems like we talk about them every year being the unheralded team that puts together a dynamite season, but gets no respect for it. Of course, playing in the Weak, er, I mean, Western Athletic Conference, doesn't help. But putting together a second undefeated regular season in the last four is quite an accomplishment. And it doesn't look like there's much standing in the way of finishing without a loss with San Jose State (6-2), Utah State (1-8), and Nevada (6-2) left to play. That means that everyone in Smurf-Turf-ville will be crying for a big BCS game since their team posted a goose egg in the loss column. Nice try, Broncos, but not this year — again.

What are the other effects of Louisville's loss Thursday? Well, No. 4 Florida would probably be the next most likely opponent for either the Bucks or Wolverines, assuming they get out of the SEC without another loss, including the conference championship game. The regular season shouldn't be a problem for the Gators, though, with remaining games against South Carolina (5-4) in their conference finale, 1-AA Western Carolina and Florida State (5-4) in Tallahassee. That would set them up in a SEC title game against either Arkansas or Auburn.

The Razorbacks (8-1) are probably still scratching their heads at how they can be No. 11 in the BCS and the Tigers No. 6. After all, Arkansas beat Auburn 27-10 just a few weeks ago and haven't lost since their embarrassing 50-14 loss to USC in the season-opener. I thought the BCS was all about "what have you done for me lately?" In Arkansas' case, it's not — it's about tradition and prestige, which is why they'd love nothing more than to finish the rest of the season without a loss and get to that SEC title game with Florida.

But both Arkansas and Auburn have a couple of tough games remaining on the schedule. Arkansas has Tennessee (7-2, No. 16 BCS), Mississippi State (3-7), and LSU (7-2, No. 12 BCS) left, while Auburn has Georgia (6-4) and Alabama (6-4). It would seem that Arkansas has the most formidable foes left, but even two wins of their last three keeps them in Atlanta since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Tigers. With Louisville's loss, if Auburn could somehow manage to win the SEC championship and enough pollsters shy away from a rematch of Ohio State/Michigan in the national championship game, the Tigers might end up there, which would really fizz the Arkansas faithful. Let's say, though, that all that pans out except for Arkansas winning the SEC title. Enter Texas.

The Longhorns are currently No. 5 in the BCS at 9-1, and with games remaining against Kansas State (6-4) and Texas A&M (8-2, No. 25 BCS), and the potential of facing a weak North Division foe in the Big 12 title game in either Nebraska, Missouri, or the Wildcats, they could eventually end up playing in the title game again. How 'bout a rematch of the game earlier this year between Texas and Ohio State, assuming the Buckeyes beat Michigan in a couple weeks? The Longhorns were No. 2 at the time, remember? Hmmm.

Three other teams that could figure in the mix, although in a very remote way, are USC, Cal, and Notre Dame. The Trojans have the distinction of having to play both the Bears and Irish before the end of the season. If they win both of those, beat Oregon this week ,and UCLA in the season finale, and if Florida, Auburn, and Texas all falter down the stretch, we could see a "Rose Bowl classic" in Arizona with USC facing either Ohio State or Michigan. That would be fun.

But the most likely scenario, in my mind, if one of the non-Ohio State/Michigan teams lose before the bowl season, is a rematch in the desert. Having No. 1 and No. 2 square off at the end of the regular season, then do it again for the national championship would be a treat in itself. I don't think it's ever been done before, and just having conference rivals ranked 1 and 2 is somewhat of a rarity. The last time No. 1 and No. 2 played a conference game was in 2000 when No. 1 Florida State beat No. 2 Virginia Tech 46-29. It only happened five times before that, not counting independents, dating back to 1963.

Whatever the outcome is, though, "we hold these truths to be self-evident" — that an undefeated team will play in the national championship, another might be held out, and a whole bunch of others will be thinking they should have a shot. Hang on, fans; it's gonna be a wild ride to the end!