The Future is Still Bright in Queens

It all ended with Adam Wainwright freezing Carlos Beltran in front of the disbelieving Shea faithful. A dream that began with the high-profile acquisitions of Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, and Paul Lo Duca was snuffed out by a rookie emergency closer in the late October chill.

Despite the perceived "failure" of a team that totally ran away with the NL East, the New York Mets were one of the success stories of 2006. They effectively achieved their first goal, the division title, by the All-Star Break with consummate ease. The Mets' ride to the top was best characterized by their 9-1 road trip to Los Angeles, Arizona, and Philadelphia in early June, by which point the team's record reached 19 games above .500, effectively opening up an insurmountable lead in the division race.

The batting lineup was by far the strongest in the NL and was only challenged by the best pitching the league had to offer. The pitching was serviceable, if not outstanding, but it didn't need to be anything more as Willie Randolph could call on the strongest bullpen in the NL.

The problem with the playoffs is injuries. It's almost impossible to cope with the loss of marquee players in October and the Mets lost two of their five starters before the playoffs had even began. No GM, even Brian Cashman, has sufficient financial clout to run with seven top-line starting pitchers on the off-chance that two go down with injuries.

The loss of Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez wasn't such an issue against the light-hitting Dodgers and it should have been the same against a St. Louis lineup that is only slightly more frightening. But the Mets bats hit a collective dry spell, especially in Game 7 when they could only manage four hits against Jeff Suppan, Randy Flores, and Adam Wainwright, in the process leaving a staggering 22 men on base.

David Wright came in for the most ferocious criticism from the New York press for his .160 effort in the NLCS, but he wasn't alone in freezing during the series. Paul Lo Duca hit a woeful .207 and Endy Chavez, lauded for his catch that robbed Scott Rolen of a homer in the sixth inning of Game 7, hit a miserable .185.

The disappointment of the NLCS aside, the Mets have reason to be happy this offseason. They are overwhelmingly the best assembled team in the NL, despite Pedro Martinez being unavailable until June 2007 at the earliest. And the likelihood is that further pieces will be added during the offseason, with Omar Minaya one of the league's more adept (and rich) GM's.

Martinez's absence may actually be a blessing in disguise for the team. He's demonstrated he can't go a full season without a trip to the DL at some point and, to be frank, the NL East is so weak the team can win it without him. Giving him until the break to recover means the Mets have a healthy (assuming he can last 12-15 starts) number one starter for October.

Tom Glavine has the option of returning to Atlanta to finish his career, but that would seem futile, unless his family circumstances demand it or he wants to return for sentimental reasons. The Braves are some way off contending, even in a weak NL, unless they make a huge splash in the free agent market, which is (financially) unlikely. Glavine and Hernandez, with the possibility of a premier free agent addition to the rotation (Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, or Daisuke Matsuzaka) and a couple of promising youngsters in Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Brian Bannister adds up to a decent rotation for the regular season.

I think Minaya will act less aggressively than many of the "Hot Stove" columnists are assuming. Hernandez is useful in October, but he's not up to the rigors of the regular season and he may well be jettisoned. If he's around come the trading deadline, by all means, pick him up, but let him ride till then. At this juncture, Matsuzaka looks destined for Japan-friendly Seattle at a prohibitive price for what he brings to the table. Zito is showing signs of wear and tear — and ditto Schmidt. At their prices, maybe Minaya passes.

That leaves Minaya with making a deal to bolster the rotation and he has two prime chips to play with — reliever Aaron Heilman (who wants to start somewhere) and outfielder Lastings Milledge, who has talent, but is not a favorite of the coaching staff. Heilman is a useful stopper from the bullpen, but the Mets have plenty of arms they can call on in the seventh and eighth. Moving him in a package for a quality starter makes sense.

Milledge doesn't offer anything the team hasn't already got. He has speed, but Jose Reyes has more. Beltran and Wright can steal bases, too. He plays the outfield well, but it's a position easily filled. He's expendable if the package makes sense.

Trading for a decent starter makes sense and I'd be surprised if Minaya doesn't deal both Heilman and Milledge. Freddy Garcia has been touted around in the New York tabloids, but if I were Minaya, I'd pass. Garcia's body language on the mound is awful. He seems to lack passion and the heart for a battle. He might prosper against weaker hitting NL opponents, but if I was Minaya, I'd rather pursue Florida's Dontrelle Willis.

Willis had an up-and-down year in 2006, never reaching the heights of 2005 (22-10, 5 SHO, 2.63 ERA, 170K), but posting a respectable 3.87 ERA, though his WHIP and BAA took a big jump upwards. Willis will be just 25 by opening day and starting his fifth season as a big league pitcher. He has dominated the NL East, is a tremendous competitor and teammate, and never gives anything less than 100%. Being a lefty and a power pitcher is hardly a disadvantage. Working with Rick Peterson will doubtless improve him further.

Willis accounts for roughly 25% of Florida's payroll and has no long-term future in Miami. The Mets have dealt with Florida before and I would bet the house on Minaya making an offer during the winter for the lefty to bolster his rotation.

That said, Minaya already has a lefty that could prove to be just as dominating as Glavine or Willis. Oliver Perez came over as a makeweight from Pittsburgh in the Xavier Nady/Roberto Hernandez deal and didn't do anything of note until pitching a gem in Game 7 of the NLCS. There is still a chance that the young Mexican (he'll be 25 on opening day) can recapture his 2004 form, when he had a stellar season in Pittsburgh (2.98 ERA, .207 BAA, 239K). Perez needs to prove himself again after two years in the doldrums and can be resigned relatively cheaply. He gives Minaya an excellent wildcard option as a starting lefty should Glavine return to Atlanta and/or Florida decline his advances for Willis.

The big question marks over the everyday positions are in the corner outfield and at second base.

Second base is easily solved. Julio Lugo is a free agent and has already tried wooing the Mets with declarations of love. Lugo is a competent fielder, has speed on the base paths, and plays every day. The only blip could be his contract demands, which exceed his actual achievements. If this can be overcome, he's a solid acquisition and an upgrade over an aging Jose Valentin.

The outfield positions are complicated by the Cliff Floyd and Shawn Green situations. Floyd wants to return and he's popular with the fans and in the clubhouse, but he can't stay healthy for any length of time. At a discounted rate, he has a shot at returning, but if he wants big money, he'll have to look elsewhere. Endy Chavez is an adequate replacement, but little more than a solid glove.

Green has a year left on the deal that came with him from Arizona. He's in serious decline, but is virtually impossible to trade. Minaya is likely stuck with him for the duration of 2007. Speedster Carlos Gomez is waiting in the wings so Minaya can live with Green for the last year of his contract.

With Pedro on the DL to start the year, here's how I see the core of the Mets roster looking for opening day, assuming Minaya keeps his stellar bullpen largely intact by resigning both Mota and Bradford.

SS – Jose Reyes
C – Paul Lo Duca
1B – Carlos Delgado
CF – Carlos Beltran
3B – David Wright
2B – Julio Lugo
RF – Shawn Green
LF – Endy Chavez

SP – Tom Glavine
SP – Dontrelle Willis
SP – John Maine
SP – Oliver Perez
SP – Brian Bannister

RP – Duaner Sanchez
RP – Pedro Feliciano
RP – Guillermo Mota
RP – Chad Bradford
CL – Billy Wagner

That lineup is enough to scare anyone in the NL and puts the Mets in prime position to make another strong run at the pennant. With the core of the roster young and in their prime (unlike over in the Bronx), the future is bright for the Mets faithful.