So every week I play this football pool at work. It's two bucks a sheet, with the pot ranging from $700 to $1,200. Straight-up, winner take all. I make my picks on Thursdays, review them on Friday before handing them in. Along with a sheet of what I think will happen, I submit a "B sheet," switching the three or four games I'm the least sure about.
For my Week 5 bye sheet, I switch my original picks of Redskins/Cardinals/Steelers to Giants/Chiefs/Chargers. I got all the other games correct. I'm riding the perfect sheet with Denver on Monday night. Denver wins, so it comes down to the tie-breaker. I had 36. Final total was 16. I get nothing.
How could I be so stupid?
Here are ten things we learned from Week 5:
1. Right now, Chicago has the best offense-defense-special teams combination in the league. San Diego is second.
2. Either the Dolphins are about to implode or they're about to go on a backs-against-the-wall desperation run. I can't decide which.
3. The NFC East — where everybody beats everybody, and the only sure thing is Drew Bledsoe throwing picks against pressure.
4. Speaking of Bledsoe, they can't bench him for Tony Romo. They just can't. With all the T.O. nonsense, a QB controversy sinks this team for good and ends Bill Parcells' coaching career.
5. Speaking of coaching careers ending, think they can get Dennis Green on the NFL Network to replace Deion Sanders?
6. Reason #79 why TiVo is the greatest invention since television itself: fast-forwarding through the entire ESPN half-time show on Monday Night Football. I can't tell you how much pleasure I get out of not listening to Tom Jackson and Michael Irvin. (Side note: I hope Jackson gets scurvy of the rectum. I think Irvin already has it.)
7. Watching Mike Shanahan scheme against the Ravens defense in the first half reminded me of Russell Crowe as John Nash in A Beautiful Mind.
8. Has there ever been a less impressive 4-1 team than St. Louis? Only through the sheer ineptness of Kurt Warner and Brett Favre are they not 2-3.
9. Corey Simon is done, and so are the Colts' chances at getting through the AFC in the playoffs. Remember, they aren't just missing Simon from last year's defense. They also lost Larry Tripplett (Bills) and David Thornton (Titans) in free agency.
10. Lock of the week: Pittsburgh beats Kansas City at Heinz Field in Week 6. Here's betting the Steelers are 4-3 when they host Denver in Week 9.
On to the Week 6 Bye Report. For some reason, the NFL doesn't want to have bye teams in Week 10 anymore, so six teams will be off this and next week. Personally, I'd rather they got rid of the Week 3 bye instead of the Week 10 bye, but whatever. Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and New England sit and watch this week.
Cleveland Browns
(1-4, 0-2 AFC North, last place)
Overview — I love the way this team plays. That doesn't mean they're any good, but they're far more entertaining to watch than the rest of the company they keep at the bottom of the league. Charlie Frye is teetering somewhere in between Trent Dilfer and pre-greatness Favre. I can't wait to watch this unfold.
Impact of the Bye — It really doesn't matter at this point. The fewer games they have to play without Leigh Bodden, the better, but it's not like they're trying to get healthy for the playoffs.
Outlook — With a brutal schedule remaining, they'll be fortunate to win three more games all season. But that's okay. This team was never meant to win in 2006. Give Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel another solid draft, and this is a great sleeper team for 2007, even better for 2008.
Green Bay Packers
(1-4, 1-1 NFC North, third place)
Overview — I hate to say it, but Favre is approaching Warner territory with his turnovers. It's just sad.
Impact of the Bye — It's time Mike McCarthy takes a step back and re-evaluates his plan for the future. He should spend this week identifying his core guys for next year and beyond, and game plan to get them experience. In that respect, this is probably a great time for a week off.
Outlook — There's a decent chance they are in position to look at Brady Quinn in the 2007 draft. If that time comes, they have to know what they have in Aaron Rogers. It's absolutely imperative they give him at lest 7-8 games to show if he can lead this team out of the darkness. That's the only good that comes out of this year. They should pull the trigger now with two weeks to prepare for Miami.
Indianapolis Colts
(5-0, 3-0 AFC South, first place)
Overview — Recap of the Titans' first drive on Sunday, all rushing: Travis Henry for 9 yards, offsides Indy, Henry for 5, LenDale White for 12, Henry for 5, Henry for 14, White for 19, Vince Young for 19. Touchdown. This was against Tennessee at home.
Impact of the Bye — Perfect. The defense is all banged up, and they need to find some way to shore up their run defense (166.8 ypg, 31st in the NFL). I'm not sure they can completely turn it around (this ain't baseball, where you can just trade for a top-line starter midway through the season), but getting the players they have healthy will help.
Outlook — I know they won the game, and 5-0 is 5-0, and blah blah blah. Let's see them do that and win against New England/Denver/Baltimore/San Diego. One of the few constants in the NFL: You can't win in the playoffs if you can't stop the run. Until they fix that, this is a 12-4/11-5 team with one-and-done written all over it.
Side note: Remember when the Colts gave Adam Vinatieri a five-year, $12 million contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus? In retrospect, it's another reason why the Pats' strict adherence to their player value system makes them the smartest front office in the league.
Side note to the side note: My first son is due to be born this Thursday morning (10/12). His name will be Adam. That's going to be his name because when Vinatieri lined up for the FG against the Rams, I swore to God if he made it I would name my first son after him. I hesitated when Vinatieri signed with the Colts, but a promise is a promise. Can't have him being born under a bad sign.
Anyway...
Jacksonville Jaguars
(3-2, 0-1 AFC South, second place)
Overview — Well, they sure went into the break with a bang, demolishing Chad Pennington and the Jets. They beat the teams they should, but haven't broken through with the big road win. The Byron Leftwich/Reggie Williams connection is looking more solid by the week, and Maurice Jones-Drew is having a Willie Parker effect on the offense. Too bad their season is doomed by the loss of middle linebacker Mike Peterson.
Impact of the Bye — The defense is beat up, and they're coming off a resounding beating of the Jets, so this is a great time to rest up and get ready for the rest of the season. It'll be probably be less relaxing for Jack Del Rio, who has to figure out how to play defense without the guy who held everything together.
Outlook — I hate to harp on an injury, but losing Peterson is like the Colts offense losing Peyton Manning. He made everybody around him better (smarter), and they are all going to get worse (dumber) without him. With a fairly easy schedule that includes only four remaining games against teams currently in line to make the playoffs (Eagles away, Giants/Colts/Patriots at home), they've got a chance to maybe slide into a six-seed. Past that, I don't see it.
Minnesota Vikings
(3-2, 1-1 NFC North, second place)
Overview —The quintessential embodiment of mediocrity, the Viking are just bad enough to fall down 17-3 at home against the Lions, and just good enough to come back and win. There's something missing from this team, but I can't put my finger on it. They're just so unexciting.
Impact of the Bye — Antoine Winfield is a vital player for this defense, and he played the Detroit game with a bad quad. Giving him a week to heal up is worth the bye in itself. Other than that, it allows first-year head coach Brad Childress a chance to step back and assess. Coming off a win (even a shaky one) is a good time for that.
Outlook — With Seattle/ New England/San Francisco up after the bye, they should be at least 4-4 with the meat of their schedule behind them. The current combined record of their second-half opponents is 15-25. Take out their Week 13 trip to Soldier Field, and the combined records falls to 10-25. Playoffs, probable. Playoff wins, not so much.
New England Patriots
(4-1, 3-0 AFC East, first place)
Overview —Things certainly haven't gone as smoothly as in past years, with the Deion Branch saga weighing everybody down, and the Brady Face making more appearances than usual. But all things considered, a 4-1 record with wins over each of their division opponents is a fine result for the first third of the season. The running game is playoff quality, and Doug Gabriel looks like an emerging player. The only major concern right now is whether Stephen Gostkowski can shake off a rocky start and gain some consistency before the weather turns.
Impact of the Bye — Bill Belichick on Wednesday: "Today is one of my favorite days of the year. We have a little bit of extra time to get in and coach good, solid football. It's not really a big game-planning day and you don't feel like it's a normal kind of rat race that you have on Wednesday when you're trying to get a lot of stuff ready and get a lot of things done. You feel like you can take a little more time, really be thorough, do a good job of explaining the points you're trying to get across, and really improve your football team today and tomorrow as we get ready for Buffalo."
Translation: Take the Pats in Week 7.
Outlook — If it wasn't clear before Buffalo and the Jets lost by a combined score of 81-7 in Week 5, it should be crystal by now: New England will win the AFC East. Beyond that, it's an issue of matchups and home-field advantage in the playoffs. Right now, I'd say San Diego is No. 1, followed by Denver, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh, in that order. (Maybe Kansas City leapfrogs one or two teams, but not enough to make the show.)
Playlist of the Week
1. The Wedge – The Challengers
2. Fearless – Pink Floyd
3. Dance to the Music – Sly & The Family Stone
4. Modern Man – Bad Religion
5. Sir Psycho Sexy – Red Hot Chili Peppers
6. Fade Into You – Mazzy Star
7. Straight, No Chaser – Thelonious Monk
8. Mother's Little Helper – Rolling Stones
9. Ruby Soho – Rancid
10. Come on Eileen – Dexy's Midnight Runners
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