Man, I love the NFL.
I tanked my picks last week, went 0-3 in my three fantasy leagues, and my team, the New England Patriots, looked horrrrrrrrible against the Broncos. All that, and I still can't wait for Week 4. It's like crack, except without the rotting teeth and lousy coffee at the Narcotics Anonymous meetings.
(Side note: In Bill Simmons' pantheon of faces, the Brady Face is the un-talked-about deformed kid in the basement. Sometimes he just gets this pout, and it makes me angry. And my friends make fun of me. And I have to say something about Dan Marino being gay to make myself feel better.)
Here're 10 things we learned this past week:
1. Kurt Warner is done. DONE. I'm just praying Dennis Green really does stick with Warner against Atlanta and John Abraham comes back for the Falcons. I'm seeing shades of Rams at Giants, Week 1, 2003. (You Rams fans know exactly what I'm talking about.)
2. Daunte Culpepper is getting most of the heat, but that Dolphins' defense wasn't exactly top-notch itself against the Titans.
3. The only thing that can save the Giants from completely imploding is winning. A few more losses, and the New York glare is going to get awfully hot for Tom Coughlin. (Sorry, that last sentence sounds like Peter King. Triple-Grande Non-Fat Latte, please.)
4. Just because Bill Belichick doesn't like Eric Mangini anymore doesn't invalidate all the good things we heard about Mangini as a coach the past few years.
5. Charlie Frye reminds me of Brett Favre a decade ago. If I'm a Browns fan, I'm excited about what I saw on Sunday.
6. Adding Deion Branch to the Seahawks puts their offense in the same category as Indianapolis and Cincinnati, as far as I'm concerned (even with Maurice Morris at RB).
7. Hard to tell how much the emotion raised their games, but Drew Brees is way (WAY) better than Aaron Brooks, Marques Colston kept getting open, the offensive line held steady, the defense tackled extremely well, Reggie Bush is really fast (really, really fast), and Sean Payton looks like a great hire. The New Orleans Ain'ts they ain't no more.
8. Week 4: New England at Cincinnati. It hurts just to type it.
9. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville: The football equivalent of barroom brawlers trying to win a boxing match. Sometimes being a bully just isn't enough.
10. Oakland is still the favorite to land the first pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, but the Detroit Lions are gaining ground. (Just an astonishing lack of heart on defense.)
On to our bye report for Week 4. Off this week are Denver, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay.
Denver Broncos
(2-1, second in the AFC West)
Overview — This was a team in disarray heading into New England. A bad loss and the bye week is spent talking about the dawn of the Jay Cutler Era. But these are the Broncos, and any time you think you can count them out, they come back and play the perfect game. The addition of Javon Walker has the potential to take this offense to a place it hasn't been since the days of Ed McCaffrey. With Tatum Bell taking the majority of carries against the Pats, you saw a return to the dominance we're accustomed to seeing from the Denver running game. Just a great, great win.
Impact of the Bye — Perfect timing from a physical standpoint. They were pretty banged up by the end of the Pats game, so a week off to rest before their Week 5 date against Baltimore (who has a slugfest against the Chargers this Sunday) should come in handy. Plus, I'm sure it'll do Plummer some good to get away for a little bit without the shadow of a QB controversy on his head.
Outlook — With three winnable games on tap after the bye, they could very well be 5-1 when they host what should be a 6-0 Colts team in Week 8. I don't think they're on quite that elite level anymore (Plummer isn't completely off the hook for the first two games and the stink bomb against Pittsburgh in the playoffs last year), but if they beat the teams they should, Denver should be in line for a wildcard spot, and perhaps a return date to Foxborough in the first round. Wouldn't that be fun? (Kill me now.)
New York Giants
(1-2, tied for last in the NFC East)
Overview — The Giants are one fourth-quarter brain fart by Andy Reid from being 0-3 and in full crisis mode. As it is, leaks are already starting to spring. The players' faith in Tom Coughlin is obviously shaken, with the latest derisive comments made by Jeremy Shockey following Sunday's meltdown in Seattle. You might say that it was just a known loudmouth spouting off, but Shockey is a significant voice in that locker room. That can't be underestimated.
Impact of the Bye Week — It's probably for the best the team has a chance to scatter for a day or two. It may be too little of a break, though. The defense needs to take this time to figure out what's going wrong. Their pass rush is way too ineffective for the type of talent they have on the D line.
Outlook — Here's the thing with authoritarian coaches: All's fine and well when their teams are winning, but a little adversity tends to snowball out of control. I think Eli Manning is a great passer, but I'm not sure he's got a strong enough personality to reverse a team-wide pattern of negativity. With a home game against Washington, then road trips to Atlanta and Dallas, the Giants could very well fall into a 1-5 hole. I don't think Coughlin survives a six- or seven-win season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
(1-2, third place in the AFC North)
Overview — The loss to Cincinnati is a reminder that these Steelers more closely resemble the early 2005 version (7-5 with a three-game losing streak) than the late 2005 version (eight-game win streak culminating with the Super Bowl). Ben Roethlisberger's anemic passer rating (34.3, behind even Kerry Collins) may be just a product of rust after an offseason spent smashing his face into moving vehicles, or it may be that defenses have figured him out. Or maybe this just isn't as good an offense without Jerome Bettis and Antwaan Randle El. Either way, this is not how to start a successful title defense.
Impact of the Bye Week — With a road game against the Chargers set for Week 4, I'm sure Bill Cowher and his coaching staff will appreciate the extra time to figure out what has gone wrong in consecutive losses to Jacksonville and Cincinnati. If they don't want to stare 1-3 in the face, they better figure something out quick. Overall, a good time to step back and regroup.
Outlook — A year ago, the heralded 2004 QB trio of Manning, Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers was ranked Roethlisberger first, Manning second, Rivers third. Now, you could make the argument those rankings are reversed. Of course, Rivers has only two games under his belt, while the other two have more than a full season (plus postseason) each, but so far in 2006, that's the story. The bottom line for the Steelers is that if Roethlisberger doesn't get it together, they don't make the playoffs. (And what's this about him telling people he had a 104-degree temperature when it was really 100.4? Something just feels off about this guy.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(0-3, last in the AFC South)
Overview — The bad news is that just three weeks into the season, the Buccaneer Super Bowl odds are about a million-to-one. (So you're telling me there's a chance...)
The good news is that, in the long run, Chris Simms will be better because of this disastrous beginning. Reading quotes from the Tampa players on Monday, it was obvious they had a whole new kind of respect for Simms, who played through obvious pain. Not only did Simms refuse to leave the game, but he actually led the offense to its best performance of the season. When he comes back, he is unquestionably a better (i.e. more respected) leader than he was before.
(I think this also helps Jon Gruden get a little bit of that Rich Gannon-type of trust in Simms that he obviously hasn't had until now, while allowing him to get this Bruce Gradkowski fling out of the way. With positive reports of Simms' prospects for recovery, this might have been the best thing for the Bucs. You know, as far as ruptured spleens go...)
Impact of the Bye Week — If you're going to break in a new starter, especially a rookie sixth-round pick, better to do it with an extra week to prepare. Plus, this should help get everybody past the shock of losing Simms. This bye couldn't come at a better time.
Outlook — If you want to be an optimist about it, there are some Gradkowski/Brady parallels here. Both came in as unheralded sixth-rounders, then leapfrogged established veteran backups when the unquestioned leader (Drew Bledsoe, Simms) went down with internal injuries. (One difference is that Brady was in year two when he took over, while Gradkowski is 10 months removed from leading the Toledo Rockets to victory over UTEP in the GMAC Bowl.)
So does Gradkowski pull a Brady and lead the Bucs to the promised land? Considering the schedule after the bye (at New Orleans, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, at NY Giants, New Orleans, at Carolina), there's not a chance in hell.
Playlist of the Week
Stuart - The Dead Milkmen
Gangsters - The Specials
Old Mother Reagan - Violent Femmes
Get a Life - Pennywise
Blue Veins - The Raconteurs
Casbah Club - The Aqua Velvets
Someday Baby - Bob Dylan
Eight Miles High (Live) - The Byrds
Take Five - The Dave Brubeck Quartet
Bukowski - Modest Mouse
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