There is no secret to the postseason. With the exception of the 2002 Anaheim Angels and the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays, pitching is what wins out. And the New York Yankees have some gaping holes in regards to that area.
Right now, their first three starters are Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, and Randy Johnson. Wang has had a good year, but is not a certifiable number one. Mussina has been spotty recently, and the 43-year-old Johnson is merely a shadow of his former self.
So the first three are problematic, but that is nothing compared to suitors who wish to secure the coveted fourth starter role — and the Yankees will need a No. 4 because there is no way Moose or Unit can go on three days rest.
Jaret Wright heads up a largely ineffectual group of possibilities. Cory Lidle and Jeff Karstens are also in the running, but it all adds to trouble for the starting-challenged Yanks.
The bullpen is by no means a sure thing, either — with notable exception of Mariano Rivera — assuming he is fully healed from his forearm tightness. So I guess even he isn't the automatic he has been in the past.
The two primary setup men though are far more troublesome. Scott Proctor has been the Yankees' most effective reliever all season, and Brian Bruney has been a pleasant surprise of late — but whether they can get it done in October remains to be seen.
Kyle Farnsworth, on the other hand, has been seen in the playoffs before. You might remember him as the guy that blew the five-run lead to the Houston Astros last season in Game 4 of the NLDS. In fact, in just under 17 postseason innings, Farnsworth has allowed a whopping 12 earned runs — and that's in the National League!
The only thing the Yankees have going for them is their opposition. The Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, and Oakland Athletics are all well-rounded teams, but none pack the offensive wallop of either the Boston Red Sox or Chicago White Sox, both of which have been eliminated from playoff contention.
However, it should be pointed out that the offense of last year's World Series champions was consistently undervalued in every round, and they proved to have just enough to win all of their postseason games except one.
Could the Tigers be this year's White Sox? They do possess a lot of similarities — staggering to the finish, a pitching staff finally fulfilling its potential after seasons of promise, and a spirited manager that will make sure his team is ready for baseball's second season.
The Twins also have questions in the starting pitching department, but they still have the great Johan Santana, along with a lineup that is vastly improved over previous Twins playoff teams.
The A's, with Barry Zito, Rich Harden, and Dan Haren, have the best pitching of any of the teams, but consistently fall short in the playoffs. Is this the year they finally get over the hump?
Their ridiculously talented lineup and experience remain the primary reasons why the Yankees are everyone's favorites to capture the American League pennant, but before their fans start printing World Series tickets, it might be a good idea to entertain the notion that they could fall short of a potential subway series with the crosstown rival New York Mets.
Joe Torre has long been fond of saying that it's nice to have a big offense, but they will only go as far as the starting pitching will take them. And if that is the case, the Yankees will need some unexpected production out of their arms — that or win every game 14-12.
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