College Football Predictions: Week 3

It was Splitsville across the board last week as I went a rather pedestrian 3-3 on my selections. Weeks like this are inevitable, and while I certainly feel no shame for a .500 showing, I am in this to make money so improvement is a must in Week 3.

Last week:

1* 1-1
2* 1-1
3* 1-1

The Week 3 card is loaded with matchups pairing top-25 teams against one another. These games are awesome from a fan's perspective, but they don't always represent the best sports betting opportunities. Let's take a closer look, and remember:

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I would be play for a large chunk of money (very confident)

LSU +3 @ Auburn, 3:30 PM, CBS

This line actually has me a little bit perplexed. I figured Auburn would open as 5-6-point favorites at home. I guess LSU must have opened some eyes with their 45-3 throttling of Arizona last week. Auburn wasn't too shabby themselves, shutting out a very limited offensively Mississippi State bunch. Although calling Mississippi State limited offensively is like calling Helen Keller limited phonetically.

There is going to be heavy action on both sides of this one. Auburn has become a very public team this year with plenty hyping them to win the whole thing, while LSU has been a popular choice for the greater part of this decade. As I said before, this line just looks too low, Auburn -3 appears to be a gift, and that is never a good thing. I don't trust Les Miles, but...

The play: LSU 1*

Michigan +7 @ Notre Dame, 3:30 PM, NBC

I called this one in advance about two months ago, so there is no question where I stand on here. For bettor or worse, Michigan is going to be one of my largest college football plays of the year.

Notre Dame beat Michigan last year by seven in Ann Arbor in a game full of Wolverine miscues. Both teams return the majority of their offensive personnel from last season, plus plenty of key players on defense. Michigan had more talent last year, and I really don't think much has changed in this regard.

Notre Dame looked good in their victory over Penn State last week but, they are facing a different, and as already mentioned, a more talented monster here. Michigan winning this one outright wouldn't surprise me, nor should it shock anyone, but we don't need an outright victory to cover, a close game will do fine. The Notre Dame hype machine is in overdrive right now, but it will probably have to downshift a gear after this weekend.

The play: Michigan 3*

Miami @ Louisville -4, 3:30 PM, ABC

I have to be careful in this spot. Louisville is my pick to win it all, and I am holding a very large futures' ticket in their name. I have an incentive to cheer them on regardless of where I stand on this game.

This will be the first contest where Louisville will truly notice the absence of Michael Bush. The Temple game doesn't quite count. The Hurricane defense is as tough as ever, and the Cardinals could have really used Bush to pick up the tough yards in short-gain situations.

Louisville will miss Bush, but Miami is the team with true offensive issues coming into this battle. They were dreadful against Florida State, and their 51-point outburst did little to relieve concerns about their passing attack as Kyle Wright attempted only 18 passes and most were of the short-yardage variety.

Seeing Miami as a four-point underdog is weird in any situation, and frankly, it seems a little bit high for a team that has a defense as tough as the one they possess. A lot of people like Miami in this one because "there is no way Miami can start 1-2," but that is the type of horribly flawed logic that leads to unprofitable gambling careers.

The play: Louisville 2*

Clemson +4 @ Florida St, 7:45 PM, ESPN

I am torn here. Normally, I'd love a team like Florida State coming off an embarrassing effort against Troy. However, there seems to be lots of people subscribing to that line of thinking this week, as Florida State is very much the public side in this one.

Clemson is coming off a tough road loss at Boston College. A game in which they lost on a missed extra point attempt in overtime, and a game which they probably should have locked up well before the extra frame.

Clemson has more at stake in this game than FSU does as Clemson is out of the ACC race with a loss. This fact has no bearing on the actual game itself, but there is no way I'd support the publicly-backed 'Noles in this one.

The play: Clemson 1*

Florida @ Tennessee +3.5, 8:00 PM, CBS

Much like the Auburn/LSU game that precedes it, this matchup will go a long way towards determining who plays in the SEC Championship Game. I had this one circled in advance much like the Michigan/ND tilt, but Tennessee's win at Cal attracted too much attention for my liking.

Tennessee did come back down to Earth last week in their narrow victory over Air Force, while the jury is still completely out on Florida until they play somebody good. Tennessee does have two key injuries on defense, but I tend to worry less about this with teams that have quality depth like Tennessee does.

The public money is behind Florida so far, although not overwhelmingly so. I'm not a huge fan of these Gators mainly because I don't think Chris Leak has done anything to earn all of the hype surrounding him. The environment should be crazy in Knoxville for the night game, and unless you can convince yourself that Florida has a good amount more talent than UT, I think you'd be crazy not to take the points.

The play: Tennessee 3*

Nebraska @ USC -18.5, 8:00 PM, ABC

I have talked to a few of my fellow sports bettors about this one, and we all have the same opinion. This number is way too high. I recognize how impressive USC looked at Arkansas in their opener, and Nebraska is yet to play anybody legitimate, but -18.5 in a game featuring two big-name schools? This one reminds me of last year's USC/UCLA tilt where USC was giving 21+.

I think Nebraska is going to have a strong year, and I am not alone in thinking this. They obviously do not possess the same overall talent or depth as USC, but they should be able to move the football significantly better than Arkansas did against this USC defense.

I use the word gift a lot in this column, and once again, Nebraska receiving 18+ looks like a gift. I am a contrarian. Whenever something looks easy or certain, I like to jump on the other side. I am not a huge fan of playing heavy chalk, but USC covering this spread wouldn't surprise me at all. Hell, I'd even bet on it.

The play: USC 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.