College Football Predictions: Week 2

I am going to write this column every week a few days in advance of Saturday's games (likely Wednesday's). The betting lines might change by game time, as could my opinion in some cases, so take these selections for what they are worth. This article is meant to give insight into the given games from a point-spread standpoint. I am not suggesting that any of you bet these games, and I certainly recommend investigating the legalities of wagering in your jurisdiction before considering doing so.

I am going to rate these potential plays as 1*, 2*, or 3* with:

1* = Gun to my head, I'd play the team listed (risky)
2* = A good chance of covering; a worthy play (fairly confident)
3* = I would be play for a large chunk of money (very confident)

Illinois +11 vs. Rutgers, 12:00 PM, ESPN

The first thing that jumps out at me is that Rutgers is an 11-point favorite here against a Big 10 school. I never thought I'd see the day. Rutgers has probably earned this distinction though coming off a winning season last year, and an impressive road victory last week against North Carolina.

Illinois has been awful the last couple of years, but have allegedly increased the talent level under the guidance of second-year coach Ron Zook. They cruised in their opener against division I-AA Eastern Illinois, although I am really not sure that means a whole lot. Their first true test will come this week.

This game is a tough call. Rutgers has proven they can get it done, but I wonder how much more talented, if at all, they really are than their visitors from the Midwest. The big number is suspicious, but I'd take the points in this spot.

The play: Illinois 1*

Syracuse +18 vs. Iowa, 3:30 PM, ABC

I'm not really certain there has been a major college football program that has performed worse than Syracuse over the last calendar year. They have been truly, truly awful, and the '06 campaign began last week with an uninspired 10-point loss at Wake Forest.

Iowa was a disappointing 7-5 last year, and they blew a couple of winnable contests in route to this record. They are considered the third best team in the Big 10 by most and are a darkhorse BCS contender. They opened '06 with a workman like 41-7 victory over division I-AA Montana.

I can understand why Iowa would look tempting here given how bad Syracuse has looked over their last dozen games, but the Carrier Dome provides a unique home field advantage for Syracuse, and Iowa has traditionally had major problems on the road under Kirk Ferentz. I think Iowa wins outright, but I don't think it will be all that easy.

The play: Syracuse 2*

Notre Dame –8 vs. Penn State, 3:30 PM, NBC

There is rarely value in playing a highly-ranked name school, especially when said school is Notre Dame. The Irish may be more overrated this season than they have been in the past, which is saying a ton.

Penn State, on the other hand, is coming off a very good '05 campaign, and have a reemerged as a trendy pick in their own right. They opened this season breaking in a new QB, Anthony Morelli, and he looked solid against Akron in a 34-16 victory.

The thing that has me perplexed about this game is that you could have had Penn State at +14 for this game two weeks ago. The line has shifted six points. One could argue that some smart money has hit the PSU side of this one, but I am not sure that is the case.

I've read lots about how Notre Dame was "unimpressive" against Georgia Tech, which confuses me. They won outright in a hostile environment against a very tough defense. Penn State might have more overall talent than Georgia Tech, but they have to travel to South Bend, and Morelli will have to put up a lot of points because PSU's defense won't contain Notre Dame like Georgia Tech's did.

The play: Unbelievably, Notre Dame 1*

Boston College +3 vs. Clemson, 3:30 PM, ABC

Clemson creamed Florida Atlantic in their opener, and more than a few people have touted them as a legitimate threat to win the entire ACC. They possess lots of speed on both sides of the ball.

Boston College did not look overly impressive in their opening win at Central Michigan. In fact, CMU had Boston College on its heels late in this one before deciding to try their own variation of the swinging gate play. The trick play derailed CMU's hopes of taking BC into overtime.

I can't make a strong case for Boston College on paper. Everything seems to point towards Clemson, but the same was true last year in Death Valley, and Boston College came away with an outright victory in overtime. BC is an ugly home dog here, and I make my bones playing ugly home dogs. I expect most of the world to be on Clemson this weekend, so I'll take the points in what should be another low-scoring affair.

The play: Boston College 3*

South Carolina +3 vs. Georgia, 7:45 PM, ESPN

Georgia opened with an easy victory over Western Kentucky, but neither option at quarterback looked very promising against the weakest of competition. This puts Mark Richt in a sticky spot as he leads his team into a hostile environment at night.

South Carolina had issues on offense last week as well, although at least they were facing a legitimate defense in Mississippi St. They will need more than 91 yards passing from Blake Mitchell this week to have a shot in this one.

This game shapes up very similar to the aforementioned contest. A flashy, ranked school giving only a small number on the road against a conference opponent is sure to look attractive to the betting public. Georgia is unsettled at quarterback, and this should allow South Carolina to beef up against the Georgia rushing attack. I'll take a shot with the Ol' Ball Coach at home.

The play: South Carolina 3*

Texas –2.5 vs. Ohio State, 8:00 PM, ABC

This is the big one. No. 1 vs. No. 2, the winner of this game will take a huge step towards earning a trip to Glendale in early January. It's pertinent to be cautions when evaluating these "big" games. This game has tons of hype, but that does not mean you have to bet it bigger than normal or at all. A lot of times the more hyped games end up being coin flips from a sports wagering perspective.

Ohio State's offense is very dangerous, everyone knows this by now, but if anyone has the athletes on defense to make the Buckeyes earn their points, it's Texas. Ohio State still has major concerns on defense, and while Texas is young at quarterback, they do bring a proven rushing attack to the table. Ohio State's defense will have to tackle much better this week than they did against NIU in the opener to have a chance.

Last year, Texas went into Ohio State, and in my opinion, stole a victory from OSU. Ohio State was the better team on that night, and they may very well be the better team come this Saturday, but this line looks like bait to lure people into betting Ohio State. I like Texas' rushing game at home against an inexperienced Ohio State defense. No. 1 falls on Saturday.

The play: Texas 2*

Please keep in mind that I am evaluating the most popular games for the purposes of this article. These games are not necessarily the best options available. You can more picks, results, and opinions on sports wagering at Ryan Hojnacki's website. This article is for entertainment purposes only. Sports wagering is not legal is most jurisdictions in the U.S. Sports Central does not encourage any individual to partake in illegal activities and holds no responsibility for actions taken as a result of this article. Check with your local laws before engaging in any wagering activities.