Handicapping the Heisman

One of the three actual NCAA trends listed below will no longer ring true come December 10th, the day after the 2006 Heisman Trophy gala goes down in NYC.

Fact No. 1 — In the 71-year history of the Heisman Trophy voting, only four wide receivers have received the award and never has a pure wide receiver been given the honor (it should also be noted here that each of the four played for a national powerhouse — Michigan's Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson, Notre Dame's Tim Brown, and Nebraska's Johnny Rodgers).

Fact No. 2 — No defense-only player has ever taken home the hardware given to the most outstanding Division I college football player in the land (1949 marked the closest the voting would come, with Notre Dame's Leon Hart winning the award, but he did play on the offensive line, as well, so he doesn't count; Yale's Larry Kelley dominated as a defensive end in 1936, but also excelled as a tight end on offense, so he's out, as well).

Fact No. 3 — No single team has ever had three consecutive Heisman Trophy winners, but a USC Trojan has won the last two (Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush in '04 and '05).

Conventional wisdom would eliminate facts No. 1 and No. 2 from the equation. This leaves a USC player as the choice ... but that's why you must keep reading.

With Reggie and LenDale White committing to their futures as rising NFL stars, that leaves receiver Dwayne Jarrett as the only realistic remaining USC option and, since he is a WR, his winning would mean that his winning accomplished two of the three feats, countering the very premise of this missive. Long story short, fact No. 3 is eliminated from the equation, meaning either a defensive player or a non-USC wide receiver will be the recipient of this prestigious award.

Before we delve too deeply into the meat of this argument, let's recap the perceived top five "potentials" in the 2006 race:

Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame

Mr. Quinn came on strong in his junior season under new coach and offensive guru Charlie Weis. Quinn's arm strength is worthy of praise, but his weakness prior to '05 was in his decision-making.

I point to three games on Quinn's schedule that will define his '06 campaign and will cost him the Heisman: game one against Georgia Tech's Ramblin' Wreck defense (more details on this to come), and the final two games of the season against Army and USC.

USC is an easy read — they'll be concentrating on defense all season long with a diminished offensive attack and will be ready for whatever game plan Weis throws their way.

The other, Army, may solicit a few sighs in the reading public, but bear with me here. The Black Knights finished middle-of-the-road in defense last season, but closer examination of the numbers shows that their pass defense was more than adequate. Only 10 TDs were allowed through the air (only eight teams in the land finished with fewer allowed) and a respectable 6.29 yards per attempt were given up.

Finishing strong is the key to earning Heisman glory, and these final two games will not bode well for Brady's hopes if he does not excel.

Writer's note: I still see Quinn as an easy top-10 selection in the NFL draft and as the No. 1 QB in NCAA, just not the Heisman shoo-in that the media is making him.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma

One year removed from a forgettable campaign that featured disappointing results from the Sooners and too many nicks and scrapes on the electric Peterson, many pundits see this as a year of destiny for Adrian relative to personal glory.

Peterson drew comparisons to all-around Georgia great halfback Herschel Walker after his stellar freshman season. Like Walker, Peterson has hopes to of winning the Heisman as a junior, but the karma doesn't end there. The winner in Walker's sophomore year was USC running back Marcus Allen. The winner last year — Peterson's sophomore year — was USC running back Reggie Bush.

Contrary to that good karma, however, are some awfully negative signs — specifically, starting QB Rhett Bomar and starting off guard J.D. Quinn were both booted off the squad for NCAA infractions. This last fact bears more notice than the potential for good print that the symmetry between two of college football history's most productive frosh runners brings.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, California

Many analysts love to point out that Lynch had a superior 2005 season despite missing most or all of three contests with minor hand injuries. I will counter that by pointing out that Lynch missed most or all of three contests with minor hand injuries. The bottom line is durability counts, and Lynch needs to prove his before he is to be considered a serious Heisman contender.

Cal plays Tennessee's second-ranked rush defense in week one of the season, and that should just about do it for any hopes of this junior taking home the award or even being invited to the festivities at all. Golden Bear fans take heart, the snub will keep Marshawn around one more season and all bets will be off in 2007.

Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State

I'm just not seeing it. I don't even know why he's on this list. Smith has talent, to be sure, but with a year of game film to study, opposing coaches will eat Smith alive by playing off his weaknesses (little accuracy from the pocket, lack of overwhelming arm strength, and tendency to tip his throws).

Many are seduced by his 16/4 TD-to-INT ratio, but it is worth noting that in games where he threw a pick, Troy had only one passing touchdown, and that was early in a blowout win against Indiana. What does this mean? Teams who game-planned effectively dominated Smith as a passer. Look for more of the same now that there is a body of work to review.

Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn

"Big Game" Kenny, as he's come to be known, has a knack for producing against big-time defenses. Heisman voters love this in a candidate. Problem is, Irons just doesn't have the moves or the all-out speed to drop jaws, and this is a big problem once the votes are being cast.

He is solid and consistent and certainly can produce the numbers and wins needed to be considered, but he's also destined to land somewhere in the middle of the voting pack. One group of voters will look to pick the best player on the best team (Auburn will not be that team) and another large faction will side with the dynamic athlete who defies convention with his moves and/or speed (Irons is not that player). If I'm a professional football scout, I absolutely love this kid, but that doesn't play well with Heisman voters.

No receivers, no defensive players, and, though we've already eliminated it as a potential scenario, no Trojans on that list, as well. Now that we've got the have-nots out of the way, let's introduce the haves.

As was stated in the opening few paragraphs, the potential winner will either be a USC Trojan, a defensive player, or a wide receiver. Equally early on in the story, we dismissed the chances of a USC player winning the award (this point is likely being drilled home all too frequently with you USC fans out there, but forgive me, I'm from the East Coast and have been sickened by the constant string of California-boy success stories ... but I digress). This leaves, in case you aren't following along at home, two possible scenarios: a defensive player winning the award or a wide receiver taking home the honor.

Let's read that last sentence again ... okay, now that it has sunk in, we can move on.

Penn State's Paul Posluszny, Ohio State's Ted Ginn, Jr., and Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson each have an interesting story to tell...

Posluszny was the middle linebacker on one of the most dominating defenses in all of Division I football. He was a finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award as the nation's best defensive player. But a devastating knee injury during the 2005 Orange Bowl could have ended his Heisman hopes before the season even started. "The Poz's" subsequent recovery leading into his senior season speaks more to his deservedness for the award as the land's most heralded collegiate football player than any performance on the field could.

All indications are that the fierce linebacker is poised to be more dominant than ever after a mind-numbingly regimented recovery, and a repeat performance by an undermanned Penn State team could mean more than just hearing his name early in next year's NFL draft. He is the one player on that side of the ball that can command the attention of a nation of sports fans, he plays for a team with a hefty fan base, and he has a storybook air about him that may turn voters on come late in the year as some of the aforementioned comers fade down the stretch. Speed and aggression don't go into slumps, and Posluszny is the epitome of both.

Ohio State has one Heisman hopeful that is getting a boat load of attention. This plays well into the hands of their other dynamic offensive star, junior wide receiver and return specialist Ted Ginn, Jr. As teams watch defenses expose QB Troy Smith, they should also catch Mr. Ginn electrifying the gridiron with his unmatched elusiveness in the return game and his game-breaking speed in the open field. Don't think the experts won't make a mental note each time Ginn pads his quarterback's stats with a lightning-quick dash down the sideline after a last-second dump off as the pocket collapses on Smith.

The third and final entry on my list of surprise Heisman candidates is the young man whom I feel will come away with the award once all is said in done. Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson is a true receiver. He does not return kicks, he doesn't moonlight as a halfback or cornerback, and he is not a converted quarterback. He is a polished ('06 will be his third year as a starter), cat-quick (4.4 speed in the forty), oversized (6-4, 230 pounds), route-running Biletnikoff-in-training with soft hands and a basketball player's leaping ability.

His detractors point out that he caught only two passes in each of the last two games in 2006, totaling fewer than 40 yards combined in those two Yellow Jacket losses. While that may be accurate, it should be noted that he did not create what we like to call the "T.O. situation" on the sideline as that went down. He took it in stride, proving maturity and patience beyond his years. Johnson's speed, athleticism, and physical gifts cannot be missed, but his ability to keep his cool in the face of adverse situations and his willingness to play the role of decoy to open up his teammates define the leadership qualities needed to stand above the pack.

Georgia Tech is poised to have a resurgent year with a more experienced (but still inconsistent) Reggie Ball at QB and a young, fast, and aggressive defensive unit, which means more attention to Calvin and his game-changing abilities on the national stage. As I broke down Notre Dame's QB Brady Quinn above, I mentioned the early season tilt against the Yellow Jackets as being a key game ... it is, but more so for what it will do for Johnson than what it won't do for Quinn.

Much of the nation will tune in to see Brady peddle his Heisman-worth wares and will leave with the vivid impression of Calvin Johnson torching the Irish defense for 200 yards and three scores and a need to see more of the stud receiver. It'll keep coming all season long and ultimately, the voters won't be able to deny the combination of numbers and unexpected team success.

To say that the Heisman Trophy is a big deal in our sporting society is as gross an understatement as there is. The award's prestige is surpassed only by the pomp and circumstance that accompanies it in the days and weeks leading up to the presentation gala (and make no mistake, it is a gala). The roster of past winners reads like a veritable who's who of football's rich history. Hornung, Staubach, Simpson, Plunkett, Campbell, Allen, Sanders ... the names we hear so often when chronicling the growth of football in our nation appear with alarming frequency on the roster of past award recipients. Sometimes, though, what is perceived as the norm is not always a requirement.

Mark this as the year that the threshold between what is expected and what has never been seen before in college football history is broken.

Week 1 Predictions

For entertainment purposes only!

Northern Illinois @ Ohio State (-18.5) — Ohio State all the way, 35-7.
California @ Tennessee (-2) — The Vols will win it late with a stellar defensive showing, 14-10.
Virginia @ Pittsburgh (-4) — Take the points, but Pitt should win a nail-biter, 28-27.
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech(+8) — Georgia Tech will win outright, 42-35.
Florida State @ Miami, FL (-4) — If this game is played, take the points, FSU wins 26-24.

Tease of the Week — USC @ Arkansas (+8) — Tease USC to -2 ... no way the Hogs take down the mighty Trojans this early and two points is an easy cover.

Pick of the Week — Staying in that USC/Arkansas game, take the under (o/u 59 pts). Final score will be in the ballpark of 20-14.