Last Year
The New England Patriots entered the 2005 season as two-time defending champions, but injuries forced them to relinquish the crown. The chinks in the armor become evident when Rodney Harrison was lost for the season and the defensive performance started to deteriorate. Last year can be considered a down year by Patriots standards, but after more losses off the coaching staff and off the roster, they look like they might be headed for a down season by NFL standards.
What We Learned From Last Year
After Harrison tore three ligaments in his knee just three weeks into the season, an already-struggling defense suffered a disheartening setback. Harrison was the glue that kept a cohesive unit together and his shoes would not be filled.
With safety partner Eugene Wilson, the Pats had one of the best tandems in the league. Without Harrison, Wilson would start along with seven other strong safeties, who just never fully fit in.
But the Pats did get a surprising boost when their other defensive "heart and soul" player returned to the field as Tedy Bruschi made an improbable return from a stroke in Week 8. Already without Ted Johnson and Roman Phifer, the linebacking corps — which had typically been the strength of the defense — was experiencing a shortage.
Bruschi's return stabilized one inside spot, but newcomers Chad Brown and Monty Beisel noticeably struggled. The position used to be two-deep, but with the dearth of capable linebackers, the defense was forced to employ more of a 4-3 scheme.
The front four was better for it as it allowed four quality down linemen, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green, and Ty Warren, to get on the field at once.
While the Patriots can be effective in both sets, their 3-4 defense is the one in which they have more success.
Particularly in pass rushing, their sack ranking dropped from fifth-best to 10th-worst. As a whole, they are far more predictable in their static 4-3 rather than the 3-4 defense, where they are constantly shifting before the snap.
The play of the secondary borderline disastrous for the Patriots last season, but it wasn't fully exposed because of a soft division.
Third-round pick Ellis Hobbs was very aggressive off the bat, but once he learned the system, he became a starter opposite of Asante Samuel. It was clear that there was a lack of depth at cornerback, as well. Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole were useless.
The Patriots only finished with 10 interceptions, the fourth-lowest total in the NFL, and their cornerbacks only accounted for six.
With a lack of depth virtually everywhere on the defense, the balance of the burden was shifted onto the offense.
Tom Brady was clearly up to the task but not everyone was.
Corey Dillon was hurt throughout the year and clearly lost a step because of his injury. His per-carry average drooped to 3.5, while he finished with only 733 yards. The depth at running back was also tested and even journeyman fullback Heath Evans even started a couple of games.
Two rookie offensive lineman were thrown into the fire immediately. One by coach's choice and one out of necessity. First-round pick Logan Mankins stepped in at left guard and performed like a veteran for the most part while the team's other third-round pick, Nick Kazcur, was forced to fill in for Matt Light while he missed time with a broken leg.
With a leaky defense and an unreliable rushing attack, the Patriots were forced to pass the ball significantly more than they were used to. They averaged 257.5 passing yards per game, second-best in the NFL.
The championship Patriots had been known for stout a defense and an even offense, but last season, they were a one-dimensional offense with a fragile defense. They made it to the playoffs based on the weakness of their division, but now that Miami has closed the gap, unless they find their depth and balance, they might not be making an appearance in the postseason.
This Year
It is difficult to bet against a team that has had so much success over the past five seasons, especially with four easy divisional wins coming in the form of Buffalo and New York, but there are a lot of red flags about this team.
All-around depth was a concern last year and it is a recurring theme this year. For starters, the cornerback position still does not have much help outside of starters Samuel and Hobbs.
Eric Warfield was signed as a free agent, but he was a major disappointment in Kansas City. He has the skills to be a starter, and is the type of scrap-heap find that Belichick usually turns into a contributor, but he has a lot to prove. Free safety Eugene Wilson has been spending a lot of time playing cornerback, which doesn't necessarily mean anything other than the Pats love to be as versatile as possible, but it is not a vote of confidence to the players at the position already.
Chad Brown and Monty Beisel return and have supposedly learned a lot from their arduous first season in New England. But the linebacking unit has already lost Willie McGinest to free agency and Tedy Bruschi to a broken wrist for the rest of the preseason, which means that Brown and Beisel have to play well.
Beisel is penciled in as the starter beside Bruschi, but the only real option available to replace either two should injuries come into play is Mike Vrabel, who is starting on the outside. On a positive note, outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin is feeling completely healthy and confident, and is aiming to top his career-high sack total of 10.5.
It would have made sense for the Patriots to draft at least a few players to support the linebackers or cornerbacks, but the only help came in the form of sixth-round defensive end Jeremy Mincey, who is moving to outside linebacker, and seventh-round cornerback Willie Andrews.
With Rodney Harrison back, at least the starting unit in the secondary looks strong, but the lack of viable players at linebacker may force the Patriots back to the 4-3.
The offensive side of the ball is where most of the top end of the draft was focused and Brady will have newfound support in the form of Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson. While those two picks were shrewd, the team's third-round and fourth-round picks of tight ends was baffling.
Jackson is a project at wide receiver, but with Deion Branch holding out, he might be counted on sooner rather than later. Reche Caldwell is another scrap-heap find that will likely crack the starting lineup and contribute, but the vertical passing game is dependent on Jackson and Branch. Troy Brown is still around, but is in the twilight of his career.
Expect the tight-ends to be a big focus this year, especially with third-year tight end Ben Watson looking so strong in offseason activities. Watson is on the verge of busting out and is the most prolific pass catcher and route-runner at the position. Especially with so many trepidations at the wideout spot, expect him to get many more looks.
The offensive line figures to be stronger this season because of the exposure Kazcur and Mankins experienced last year along with the return of tackle Matt Light.
They will be relied upon to open up running lanes for Corey Dillon, who re-dedicated himself this offseason. He will turn 32 this season and should he hit the wall at any point — as many running backs do after 30 — Maroney will be ready to handle the carries. Dillon will likely give up a lot of carries to Maroney as the coaching staff would likely to keep them both fresh enough come playoff time.
The Patriots will be on to their third defensive coordinator in three years and seemingly each year a savvy defensive leader jumps ship. They've also lost their clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri, who was a rock in crunch time and boosted team confidence with several game-winning kicks. It is underrated the type of boost or dent a kicker can make in the team's spirits if he makes or misses a field goal.
How much adversity can they handle? Can the second- and third-string coaches still train journeymen free agents to overachieve?
Each year they take another hit, but last year their offense carried the 26th ranked defense into the postseason. Tom Brady is still there and a gentle schedule is in place. As long as they don't get swept by Miami, the Patriots will be back in the postseason.
Over/Under: 10.5
With yet another soft schedule, along with one of the easier divisions in football, the Patriots shouldn't have too much trouble returning to the playoffs. Ten wins may be all they need, even if the Dolphins usurp the AFC East title from them. They play: BUF, @NYJ, DEN, @CIN, MIA, @BUF, @MIN, IND, NYJ, @GB, CHI, DET, @MIA, HOU, @JAC, and @TEN.
Fantasy Sleeper
Many pundits are pointing to Laurence Maroney as the sleeper on this offense, but with a re-dedicated offseason, it doesn't look like Corey Dillon will relinquish his primary role. The real sleeper here is tight end Ben Watson, who should become a focal point without many capable wide receivers present. He is a gifted tight end who can line up in the slot and beat secondaries with speed or power. Expect him to become a reliable fantasy component this season.
This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].
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