Previewing a Potentially Thrilling U.S. Open

The U.S. Open Draw Ceremony recently took place, meaning it's high time to bring down the scalpel on what the festivities produced — a 128-man bracket laced with potential matchups to salivate over and script-defying storylines.

Looking at the draw as a whole would leave me with almost nothing to say. I could analyze it almost as quickly as chair umpires have learned to say "Game, set, match, Federer." In fact, so could you. All you have to do is look at the top name on the first page and your winner is right there in front of you in bold font.

Which is why the only way to find out what this 2006 U.S. Open will be all about is to break down the draw about as thoroughly as Federer dissects whoever happens to be on the other side of the net.

So here we go.

Top Quarter of the Draw

There are two quarters of the draw that are far and away more difficult than the others, and this is one of them. Obviously, it will be taxing journey for the 31 players in the section not named Roger Federer, but rolling through to the semifinals will be no cakewalk for the No. 1 seed, either.

The cast of characters here is nothing short of formidable, as Dmitry Tursunov, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Thomas Berdych, and hometown favorite James Blake highlight this star-studded section of the draw. Fortunately for Federer, he can face at most only two of these foes in his path to the semis. His two scariest potential opponents looming within the first three rounds are Tim Henman and Jonas Bjorkman, both of whom Roger dismantled at Wimbledon so thoroughly and unmercifully that the All-England Club faithful almost forgot they were watching an actual tennis match. In fact, if any fan had shown up more than an hour and half past the start time of either match, they would have missed the proceedings altogether.

However, it could get testy in the fourth round for Mr. Federer, as rejuvenated Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero seems poised to make noise at the Open for the first time since he upset Andre Agassi in a 2003 semifinal match before losing to Andy Roddick in the championship. Ferrero was a forgotten man until last week in Cincinnati, when he came out of nowhere to reach the finals of the ATP Masters Series tournament, where he again lost to Roddick. His run was no fluke, either. En route to the final Ferrero ran James Blake off the court, rolled Rafael Nadal in two straight tiebreakers, and crushed fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo in the semis.

As long as Ferrero can overcome Gaston Gaudio (who in five years or so will be the answer to a great trivia question: "who is the last man other than Rafael Nadal to win a French Open title?") in a potential third-round match that would feature exhausting points of grueling baseline rallies, he will meet Federer in a fourth-round clash.

The trio hoping to nab the other quarterfinal spot in this section of the draw includes Berdych, Tursunov, and Blake. Tursunov has had an outstanding summer run during the U.S. Open series and has a great chance of taking his game — and his ranking — to the next level by reaching the quarterfinals here in Flushing Meadows. The Russian would have to survive a probable third-round tilt with Berdych, whose potential is yet to be realized, but still very real, as best indicated by his 2004 triumph over Federer at the Athens Olympics.

After winning the RCA Championships in Indianapolis to begin his summer campaign, Blake has struggled mightily since, culminating in a recent first-round loss in New Haven to unheralded Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo of Spain. But with the memory of last year's epic U.S. Open quarterfinal clash against Agassi in his back pocket, Blake should be a force to be reckoned with once again in New York.

Best First-Round Matchup — Tim Henman vs. Greg Rusedski. Is it just me, or does Henman always seem to play a fellow Brit in the first round of every tournament? In any case, this should be an entertaining match that will feature big serves and hark back to the olden days of tennis when the serve-and-volley reigned supreme. Of course, nobody really cares who wins this match. After all, the winner's reward is getting disposed of by Roger Federer in the following round.

Best Potential Matchup — Federer vs. Blake, fourth round. While Federer/Ferrero could be a great match, even if Juan Carlos plays his best tennis, he probably cannot win. On the other hand, if Blake plays like he did against Rafael Nadal in last year's third round (I was lucky enough to be present in the stratosphere of Arthur Ashe Stadium and Blake put one of the most shocking displays of shot-making I have ever seen), he will give Federer more than he bargained for.

Most Intriguing Storyline — Blake's attempt to regain the magic of the 2005 U.S. Open. The last few weeks have been dismal for the American, but if any venue can bring back the best in Blake, it's Arthur Ashe Stadium. Led by the ever-loyal "J-Block," the crowd should make Blake feel right at home each and every match. Look for him to repay his legion of fans with four impressive wins before bowing out to Federer in another memorable quarterfinal.

Favorite — Roger Federer

Bottom Section of the Top Half

The top two seeds in this section of the draw will be reduced to mere afterthoughts by the time the quarterfinal match rolls around. David Nalbandian, the top-ranked player in this quarter at No. 4, drudged through an embarrassingly bad summer, so it would be a big surprise if the Argentine turned things around in time for the Open. Nikolay Davydenko, the tournament's No. 7 seed, is playing decent tennis right now, but he faces an unkind fourth-round matchup here if he is lucky enough to make it that far.

There Davydenko will play one of two sizzling players, Fernando Gonzalez of Chile or Britain's Andy Murray. Gonzalez enjoyed an awesome U.S. Open Series, reaching the semis of both Cincinnati (lost to Roddick) and Toronto (lost to Federer in one of the summer's best matches). Murray has been equally impressive of late. Fueled by new coach and former ESPN commentator Brad Gilbert, Murray pulled off the upset of the year by beating Federer en route to a semi-final appearance in Cincinnati.

In addition to Gonzalez and Murray, the third contender for this section's semi-final spot should be Germany's Tommy Haas. A former No. 3 player in the world, Haas has overcome numerous injuries and he has found the game he once had in becoming one of this year's most consistent players on tour.

Best First-Round Matchup — Robby Ginepri vs. Julien Benneteau. Benneteau is generally unknown, but he had an amazing French Open this year in his native country and could give Ginepri more than he can handle considering the young American has struggled ever since the 2005 U.S. Open, where he lost to Agassi in the semifinals. Ginepri also faces the pressure of losing tons of ranking points if he falters early on in the tournament, so this match could be even tighter than it would appear on paper.

Best Potential Matchup — Gonzalez vs. Murray, third round. A match featuring two of the game's hottest players and one that officials could send all the way to the Grandstand considering neither one is American, this would be a tennis fan's dream. The difference here could come down to fitness. Gonzalez recently stripped 15 pounds off his frame, while successfully adapting his clay-court game to both grass and hard courts, but Murray needs a lot more time with Coach Gilbert before he can even pretend to be in the upper echelon of the tour's fittest players. Look for the Chilean to advance in four entertaining sets.

Most Intriguing Storyline — Take the previous storyline and apply it to Robby Ginepri. Now subtract the "J-Block." While you're at it, also take away Blake's much more powerful game. What you get is a player whose odds of reaching anything close to another semifinal are stacked against him. But that doesn't mean the throngs of Open-goers can't hope.

Favorite — Fernando Gonzalez

Top Half of the Bottom Section

Question: what do you get when an eight-time Grand Slam champion is unseeded in a tournament? Answer: you get the tournament's hardest section of the draw, no questions asked.

When you add two more former U.S. Open winners to the same quarter of the bracket, what you get is downright ridiculous. Such is the horror film in which these 32 hard-luck participants will be acting.

If we could disregard what happened last week in Cincinnati, we would dismiss Andy Roddick as a serious contender here. But we can't, and considering Roddick's stunning transformation from everyone's favorite piñata to America's great tennis hope in the span of just one week, he is now the favorite to emerge from this quarter into the U.S. Open semifinals.

He is joined in the section by a number of other players who harbor realistic aspirations of not only coming out of this 32-man party unscathed, but going one step further to the final before playing Robin to Federer's Batman.

Ivan Ljubicic is the tournament's No. 3 seed and deservedly so, as the giant Croat has played the best tennis of anyone not named Nadal or Federer throughout the 2006 season. He reached the quarters of the Australian Open, semis of the French, third round of Wimbledon, and finals of the Masters Series Miami, where he lost to Federer in three tiebreakers. Ljubicic also added two titles to his resume earlier in the year, so don't think he will crumble under the pressure of the U.S. Open or wilt amongst a bevy of more renowned players in this section of the draw.

Lleyton Hewitt, the 2001 U.S. Open champion, has suffered through a summer marred by bad tennis and bad luck. After retiring with an injury in the second round of the Masters Series Toronto, the Aussie has foregone the rest of the U.S. Open Series to get ready for the summer's climax. You can question Hewitt's current playing form, but you can't question his heart. It's arguably the biggest on tour, so never count him out.

Marcos Baghdatis, the No. 8 seed, headlines a group of young stars looking to crash the party in this section. The Cypriot has had the kind of year most players can only dream about, and while he has cooled off slightly this summer, he's a guy nobody in their right mind wants to play in New York. Youngsters Richard Gasquet and Novak Djokovic are also capable of emerging ahead of their time at this year's Open.

But nobody will have as many eyes on him as Andre Agassi, who as everyone knows is playing in his last professional tournament of what has been one of the most storied careers in tennis history. Agassi, however, is not exactly heading into the Open as he would have anticipated or liked. After a respectable showing in Los Angeles, he suffered a horrible loss in Washington to someone named Andrea Stoppini and has taken the rest of the summer off to rest a recurring back problem. But if there are tennis gods in the same way there are golf gods in whom so many fans steadfastly believe, then maybe Agassi can somehow muster one more magical U.S. Open run.

Best First-Round Matchup — Fabrice Santoro vs. Fernando Verdasco. Neither player has had a particularly enthralling summer, but if nothing else, this match will be overdosed on entertainment. It should also be wildly interesting to tennis fans, as the contrast in styles here cannot be overstated. Verdasco will try to blow the undersized Frenchman off the court with his powerful groundstrokes, while "The Magician" will slice, angle, bemuse, and befuddle his opponent until the Spaniard's mental and physical capacities are thoroughly expended. Expect both the players and the fans to be exhausted after what could be a five-set marathon.

Best Potential Matchup — Agassi vs. Roddick, fourth round. Wow. The number and magnitude of the storylines surrounding this titanic clash could not be contained within the gates of the United States Tennis Center, much less the entire city of New York. I'm telling you, people would be walking on air around the grounds from the time this matchup is set until the first ball is struck on Arthur Ashe Stadium. While the crowd — and the world — would be rooting for Agassi, there would be no better way for the tennis legend to go out other than with a near-impossible U.S. Open title. Talk about the ultimate passing of the torch.

Agassi, the adoration of American tennis for the last two decades, could potentially play his last match against the guy who currently seems to be the only American player with a prayer of bringing any Grand Slam title to the United States before Federer retires. Not only that, but it would be played on the stage of Roddick's most glorious moment; the same place that in recent years has become more of a shrine to Andre Agassi than a tennis stadium. Oh, and by the way, fans lucky enough to be present in Arthur Ashe would be treated to some darn good tennis, as well. This match would have it all.

Most Intriguing Storyline — See "Best Potential Matchup."

Favorite — Andy Roddick

Bottom Quarter

If the U.S. Open was played on clay, the bottom quarter of the draw would be scary good. It features Rafael Nadal, Tommy Robredo, David Ferrer, Juan Ignacio Chela, and Jose Acasuso. While each one of them has at least a fair amount of potential on the hard courts, they are all lethal dirtballers. Nicolas Almagro, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo would also be significant factors in this section if they could convince U.S. Open officials to change the surface to the soft stuff in a matter of days.

But they can't, and therefore they are reduced to mere pushovers while the draw's final quarter is relegated to the laughingstock of the tournament. That isn't to say there aren't some really good tennis players down there, but anywhere else in the draw, Rafael Nadal would have a terrible time trying to make the quarterfinals, much less the semis. Here, Nadal has almost no significant roadblocks in his path to the final weekend of the 2006 U.S. Open.

The most formidable opponent Nadal could meet before the quarterfinals is French teenager Gael Monfils, he of unlimited talent and awe-inspiring athleticism. But Monfils is probably two years away from playing a significant role in determining the outcome of a Grand Slam event.

To reach the semis, Nadal will most likely have to dispatch fellow Spaniard Robredo or Argentina's Chela in the quarters. While those two have a much better chance of stunning Nadal on hard courts than they do on clay, neither one would have been expected to attain a quarterfinal spot at Flushing Meadows prior to the draw ceremony.

Best First-Round Matchup — What this section lacks in star power, it makes up for in potential first-round classics.

Breaks of serve should be few and far between in the Ivo Karlovic vs. Robin Soderling match, so a five-setter with multiple tiebreakers is certainly a possibility.

Chela vs. Stanislas Wawrinka and Dominik Hrbaty vs. Mikhail Youzhny are almost too close to call.

If you're at the U.S. Tennis Center and fond of agonizingly long baseline slugfests, check out Nicolas Massu vs. Davide Sanguinetti or Almagro vs. David Ferrer. Both of those matches could exceed the four-hour mark.

If you have any interest in witnessing some brilliant shot-making, stop by Jarkko Nieminen vs. Xavier Malisse, Jose Acasuso vs. Paradorn Srichaphan, and Nadal vs. Mark Philippoussis. While the first two contests are virtual tossups, Nadal should steamroll the big Aussie, although Philippoussis never fails to throw in his fair share of crowd-pleasing 140 mph bombs.

Best Potential Matchup — Robredo vs. Chela, third round. Both players are heading into the Open in good shape with respectable performances at last week's tournament in Cincinnati. Robredo went all the way to the semi-finals before falling to eventual runner-up Juan Carlos Ferrero. There would be a lot at stake in this third round match as well, as neither Robredo nor Chela has ever reached the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. The winner of this match would be favored in the following round to advance to a potential quarterfinal clash with Nadal.

Most Intriguing Storyline — Nadal's bid to set up Nadal/Federer III. Barring a shocking upset in the top half of the draw, Federer will almost surely be a part of the second Sunday festivities on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Therefore it's up to the Spaniard to give the tennis world what it wants: a third consecutive Grand Slam final featuring the top two players in the game. Nadal won the French on his most comfortable surface, while Federer got revenge at Wimbledon on his old stomping grounds.

Here they would play on a more neutral hard surface, still giving a slight advantage to Federer, but allowing for as equal a playing field as we will ever get between these two. Having split the last two major titles, this would be a virtual tiebreaker. If Nadal triumphed here, he would deal a serious blow to Federer's stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking, both in points as well as public perception. Assuming Agassi bows out of the tournament before the dawn of the second week, tennis fans around the world will be heading to their local church service on the Open's middle Sunday offering up prayers that Nadal can somehow make this dreamlike final a reality.

Favorite — Rafael Nadal

Overall

With a final four featuring Federer vs. Gonzalez and Roddick vs. Nadal, you have got to like Federer and Roddick advancing to the championship match. Casual tennis fans who saw Federer succumb to Andy Murray last week in Cincinnati probably think Roddick has a chance of unseating Federer as U.S. Open Champion. What they must realize is that Federer had no interest gutting it out in Cincinnati in an attempt to win what would be one of several dozen Masters Series shields by the time his career done. He wanted to rest up for what really matters to him.

He didn't want to be there.

Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sunday, September 10th? That's where Federer wants to be. That's where he will be, and another massive piece of hardware will be right there with him.