It's getting to be that time. College football season was just around the corner. Now, it's basically here (just a week and a day away as I write this), and I'm positively giddy, like a kid counting down the days 'till summer vacation.
The last couple of years, I've been making picks in this column that I can assure you allowed no one to get rich in Las Vegas for following. My football picks published in this column are probably hovering right around .500, and maybe even a bit below. Keep that in mind if I bag on your team in the paragraphs to follow.
I think I'm gonna do better this year, though, because I have something that I haven't had before: a system. I'm pretty sure that a gambler with a system never loses. Probably.
Actually, it's not exactly a system, but a different way of selecting games this year, I'm picking the winner, and the margin, before looking at the line. Then will I compare my margins to the college football line, and those with the greatest disparity are my mortal locks (as in, if you take my advice, the locks placed on your foreclosed-upon house will be so strong no mortal will be able to bust them). Here are the five games where I differed the most with the opening Las Vegas line, with my pick on the left. Home teams in caps.
GEORGIA TECH (+8) over Notre Dame
I already touched on this a few columns back. Yes, I am a certified Notre Dame hater. But I really think I'd feel the same way about this game regardless.
The most common point used last year to undervalue Notre Dame was their loss to Michigan State, who went on to mediocrity after beating the golden domers. But that was early in the year, and things change. The best prognosticator for early-season games might be how the teams closed the prior year.
Notre Dame closed last year nicht sehr gut. Despite being +2 in turnovers, Ohio State rolled the Irish for over 600 yards of offense and won going away. The games before that, Notre Dame squeaked by Stanford (5-6 with an early loss to UC-Davis), and I can assure you the Irish were favorites by more than the touchdown they won by.
Here, they are giving even a little more than that. Georgia Tech is not a great program (they also ended the year badly, getting blown-out by Utah in their bowl game), but they are better than Stanford, at least. They are at home, where they have a great deal of recent history of coming up huge against very highly-ranked opponents. I still think Georgia Tech wins. I definitely think they will cover. If Calvin Johnson is in top form, a Notre Dame blowout is just not going to happen.
Texas-El Paso (PK) over SAN DIEGO STATE
Okay, so UTEP ended the year quite badly last year, dropping their last three after an 8-1 start. But they still managed those eight wins, and I put a contending C-USA team about even with a lower-division Mountain West team, even on the road. The difference is SDSU will be breaking in a new head coach, Chuck Long, and UTEP has a proven winner in Mike Price, who lifted UTEP out of the doldrums almost as soon as he was named coach a couple years ago. UTEP will win.
ALABAMA (-16) over Hawaii
So we're only giving Hawaii two touchdowns and a couple of two-point conversions on the road against Alabama? Really? Hawaii doesn't travel well. Up until last year, in fact, they really didn't travel east of the Rockies at all, when they went to East Lansing and got shellacked by Michigan State. Why should this be any different? Oh, I know ... their high-powered passing attack will keep them in the game. Oh, have I been seduced by that logic before. Just last year, in fact. I thought, no way does this offense not cover the 35 points they are being given!
Memphis (+3) over MISSISSIPPI
Memphis is coming off a bowl victory to cap the season with a three game win streak. They have to replace DeAngelo Williams at running back, but Memphis is resilient enough to do that; they made it to that bowl game after losing both their starting quarterback and backup. They will have revenge on their minds (Ole Miss won 10-6 last year) and the Tigers should take it by about a touchdown.
BAYLOR (+7.5) over Texas Christian
This is the biggest game for the Baylor football program in decades. Last year, they finally, finally, finally showed some signs of life. Usually happy to get a single conference win in the Big 12, last year they managed two on the way to five wins ... but more tellingly, it took overtime for Texas A&M and Oklahoma to put them away, and the Bears were the visitors in both those games.
This year, they get to start the season on national television on a day (Sunday, September 3rd) with little college football competition, against a team that, while very strong, is also beatable for a team in Baylor's position. Remember that TCU's only loss last year was against lowly SMU. For a potential statement game of such importance, it helps to have a solid veteran quarterback, and Baylor has one in Shawn Bell. I don't if Baylor will win, but I give them just as much chance as I do TCU. The 7.5-point spread is too much.
August 24, 2006
Tim:
I think this article pretty much blows, you obviously havent paid much attention to college football lately with the type of things you just said. 1. TCU will not lose to Baylor and that prediction you just had is far from possible. 2nd if Notre Dame loses to Georgia Tech i will buy you a new car. With their high powered offense you’d have to be a complete moron(which you seem to be) to pick against them in a game like this. They’re defense according to many articles posted…which you probably didnt read either cause you dont know your facts or research anything, talks about how much they have improved on speed. Although I am not a ND fan i at least have the guts to admit that they have an excellent team this year, and anyone who at least wont admit that needs their head checked. I dont care if you hate them but you have to respect the way they play.
-Coach Vaas
August 24, 2006
Brett:
I couldnt agree more, your article is the most biased piece of **** i’ve ever read. Hahaha i find it histerical how you pick GT to beat ND. Heres what i think, your either a jelous fan who’s pissed that their team sucks and wish they were as good as ND, blind, or retarded. You can choose from one of those three, but all i can say is GO IRISH! Like Tim said, you can hate them but you gotta respect the way they play!
August 24, 2006
Pablo:
Honestly, this article is not worthy of comment. Please do not comment on his work any more.
August 24, 2006
Rigaboy:
It’s Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson for GT. Not Reggie Johnson. Get your names correct. GT will
sting the Irish with a big win
August 24, 2006
Gary:
hahaha, GT doesnt have the slighest chance i guarentee you ND wins by at least 17pts!! at least, Calvin Johnson is the only weapon GT has and he will be limited! Ball?? haha he’s such a joke!
August 24, 2006
Jeramiah:
Rigaboy?? are you retarded? Reggie Bush? do you mean Reggie Ball? Damn boy u stupid if you think GT has a chance, my boy Brady Q is gonna light that GT D of yours up!
ND-42 GT-17
August 25, 2006
John:
Kevin, I can understand where you’re coming from regarding the ND/GT game (I honestly couldn’t care less about the other ones). I don’t know that some of the other ND fans here realize that while Notre Dame is going to be very good this season, Georgia Tech is no slouch, either, especially on offense. I like ND in this one, though, for a couple reasons. First, the offense is going to be even better than last year, and last year they were pretty scary Combine this with the fact that GT is only returning five defensive starters (including only Kenny Scott in the secondary) and it could make for a memorable day for Brady Quinn. Second, while the defense has shown quite a few holes in the recent past, they’re returning 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball, so they’ll be more experience there than in the past. So while I’m not as angry that you picked against my Irish as some other commentors, I still think ND will win, though they might not cover considering the game is being played at GT.
August 25, 2006
Kevin Beane:
Thanks for reading, everyone, and thanks to the ND message board that I can only assume linked to me.
I did mean CALVIN Johnson, but I apparently morphed him subconciously with Reggie Bush, and I regret the error.
It’s sort of funny….everyone’s accusing me of “disrespecting” Notre Dame, but my pick had more to do with Georgia Tech, and how they have done in this situation before, than Notre Dame. But, I guess if you don’t pick a team to go 12-0 against the spread, you’re disprespecting them. Oh well, at least I get a car if I’m right (thanks, Tim!)
August 26, 2006
william gallagher:
nd 42- ga tech 17
come on without, come on within, you`ve not seen nothing like the mighty quinn!!!!!!!!
August 26, 2006
dad:
You must be a very ignorant individual to think georgia tech has a chance in hell against the irish. Do some more research on the irish before you go putting BS like this on the internet.
August 27, 2006
ChrisND:
I love how your entire system of reasoning is based off of last year’s games. Notre Dame is going to be an even better team than they were last year. The freshmen CBs will bring some speed to the secondary, McKnight will step up to fill Stovall’s shoes, and most of all, Brady Quinn is going to pass for a disguisting amount of yardage this year with his #1 receiver, Jeff Samardzija. With one more year of experience, this duo is only going to improve. But most of all, the coaching of Charlie Weis has totally changed the attitude of the team into a winning one, and that is something no amount of stats and scores can measure. Basically, I’m saying hate ND if you want to, but at least admit that they will most likely at least make a BCS bowl this year. That is all I have to say about that.
August 28, 2006
RealityBites:
As in recent history the “Golden Domers” are as over-rated as possible. Two players don’t make a football team, nor does a man named Charlie Wise. Notre Dame is not the team of old when they dominted college. They play one of the most average schedules there is Purdue, Stanford, Navy, UNC, Air Force, and Army talk about a bunch of power-house programs. Don’t forget to throw in a upset or two aka Michigan State last year and Notre Dame is what? It’s been alomost a decade since ND brought a national title back to South Bend;”Yes that’s right Regis 1988 was the last year!” Yeah We all know they have thirteen titles but ten of them were won prior to anyone reading this were born! 1919,20,24,29,30,43,46,47,49,66. but every year there picked to be in the mix, imagine if Bobby Bowden coached ND.
August 29, 2006
Dublin Mike:
Ah ya gotta love the Notre Dame blind loyalty. Tell me, is this defense any better at all than the defense that got destroyed by Ohio State last year? One of the WORST passing defenses in the game going up againsy quite possibly the best receiver. The they get Penn State next weekend. Hmmmmm….. Where will all the smack talk be if they go 2-0? And where was all this smack before last year, for that matter? Ya gotta love the bandwagon jumpers.
September 2, 2006
RobtheQandSharkfan:
<—HUGE Irish fan here. Absolutely insane to pick GT over ND… Charlie W. Is an OUTSTANDING coach, and has turned the ND program around in a huge way. With several key returners coming back this year such as the shark, Quinn, zibakowski, their RB, and 6 returners on D, ND will be a force to be reckoned with. Their first 4 games will be tough, and probably won’t be gimme games, but after that its smooth sailing. Mind you GT (last year) was ranked 50+ in pass defense giving up 220+ passing yards per game. Expect Brady to rack up 300 yards plus… ND beat tech 35 or 42 - 14.
September 5, 2006
charles d:
Notre Dame is a bit overated, they haven`t been a powerhouse team since Lou Hpltz coached there.
The schedule they play is always soft [Navy], get my point. Play in the SEC, and win out.