2006 NFL Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

Last Year

The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the quietest 12-4 teams in recent memory and garnered little respect because of their success against a soft schedule. They had a chance to disprove their critics in the playoffs, but embarrassed themselves against the former champs. Head coach Jack Del Rio has produced a competitive product in the last two seasons, but has not been able to establish the Jaguars as a premier team in the AFC. There is pressure to win in the playoffs this, but don't count on it.

What We Learned From Last Year

Playing in a small market without any flashy offensive parts really limits your exposure on NFL Primetime.

While the Jags did reach 12 wins for the first time in franchise history, they were rarely discussed as a serious threat in the AFC playoff picture.

The Jaguars accumulated the bulk of their wins against weaker opponents, while triumphing only three times against winning teams. While Jacksonville looked sharp in the first six weeks of the season, compiling a 4-2 record while defeating Cincinnati and Seattle at home and stealing a victory at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, they were virtually untested the rest of the way.

Aside from a second meeting with Indianapolis — which they lost — the combined record of the Jaguars' remaining 10 opponents was 39-105.

Even without starting quarterback Byron Leftwich, who broke a bone in his ankle on the first play of their Week 11 matchup in Arizona, the Jags didn't skip a beat without him. They finished up the regular season conquering five of their last six opponents by a margin of nearly 12 points per game.

There is no circumventing the fact that their schedule was as soft as a freshly-baked Krispy Kreme, there is something to be said for handling business. Beating awful teams is part of becoming a winner yourself.

With a young core of talent, many of the players on this roster have developed together. This was visible particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where tackles John Henderson and Marcus Stroud have spent four seasons building their chemistry together.

This tandem is easily the best tackle duo in the NFL and is the foundation of the Jaguars' defense. They tie up so much attention, which not only frees up linebacker Mike Peterson to roam from sideline-to-sideline, it makes it easier for other teammates to get to the quarterback.

End Reggie Hayward, who was signed from Denver to bring pressure off the end, faced single-teams most of the year and contributed 8.5 sacks. Paul Spicer, Rob Meier, and Bobby McCray added another 21, leading the defense to the third-highest sack total in the NFL.

The second level defense was very good in support. Peterson should have been a Pro Bowl selection, while Daryl Smith matured from a solid prospect into a quality starter. The Jags were not too pleased with the production of Akin Ayodele and even traded for Jamie Winborn mid-season, but still felt that the remaining outside spot was a weakness.

The play of the secondary was stellar as Rashean Mathis — outside of getting undressed on a stop-and-go route by Marvin Harrison in Week 14 — blossomed into a shutdown cornerback. The opposite corner was filled Terry Cousin and Kenny Wright, who filled a gap for a year.

Losing strong safety Donovin Darius for the season in Week 2 was a tough blow. Once again, the weak schedule kind of lessened hurt.

The story on offense revolved around the development of former first-round wideouts Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. The latter, was always quick to celebrate after a decent play but would disappear immediately after. Williams was inconsistent, while Jones endured a change from quarterback to wide receiver in the pros, which allowed sophomore Ernest Wilford to leapfrog into the starting lineup. He was reliable, finishing second on the team in receptions.

For the sixth time in eight seasons, running back Fred Taylor played in less than 16 games. Greg Jones was the lead fill-in, but still did not show the burst he once did at Florida State, prior to tearing his ACL.

The front five maintained the theme of inconsistency on the offense, as left guard Vincent Manuwai had an off year. With rookie Khalif Barnes starting 12 games at left tackle, although he played fairly well, the left side of the line was erratic at times.

The Jags are one of the youngest contenders in the AFC without many holes on their roster, but they need to do some growing before they can make a dent in the playoff picture.

This Year

Under Del Rio, the Jags have advanced their win total in each of his three seasons. They won't get to more than 12 wins this season, but a playoff win would be a more telling sign of success.

The defense returns virtually all of their starters with upgrades at the two positions that nagged them last year: outside linebacker and right cornerback.

Brian Williams was given $10 million reasons — up front — to move to Jacksonville, but it's unclear if he is good enough to start. He lost his job in Minnesota last season and he hasn't exactly overwhelmed as a Viking. He is very physical, though, and should fit in on the Jags' smash-mouth defense. He is a clear-cut upgrade at the position and allows Terry Cousin to move to nickel downs, which he is more than capable of handling in his 10th season.

The second upgrade, at the linebacking position, is expected eventually be third-round draft pick Clint Ingram. He was the captain on Oklahoma's defense last year and is competing with Nick Greisen and Pat Thomas for the job.

Donovin Darius' physical presence was missed last year, but he has recovered from his ACL tear and will start from the get-go. Combined with Deon Grant, this is a premier safety tandem that does not get talked about very often.

The return of Darius plus the additions of Ingram and Williams stands to make this defense better and tougher. Knowing what the front four brings to the table, this will be one physical puppy.

But stopping or slowing opponents hasn't often been a concern for the Jaguars. Rather, it has been the offense's ability to keep up that has hindered this team from success.

The retirement of Jimmy Smith is a difficult loss to deal with because he was the knight in shining armor that was always there in the passing game. What makes his departure sorer is that there is no ready replacement.

Smith was crucial to the Jaguars on third-down situations last season and there is no wide receiver on the roster who can bring the complete, clutch package that he offered.

Reggie Williams is lost and will likely never be a viable starter for the Jaguars, while Matt Jones' languid attitude leaves much to be desired. Ernest Wilford becomes the most reliable target by default, but he doesn't have breakaway speed. As a matter of fact, this starting threesome is one of the slowest overall, which doesn't bode well since the current NFL trend is blistering burners at the position.

The Jaguars need first-round pick tight end Marcedes Lewis to immediately inherit the role as Byron Leftwich's favorite target. This should be a given, since Lewis is a smooth athlete who shredded many college defenses in his day. Although he, too, lacks a top gear, he is the most dynamic tight end this franchise has seen and will command attention in the center of the field.

The coaching staff has added Mike Tice to the mold and although he struggled as the lead coach for the Vikings, one thing that rarely faltered during his tenure (except for his last season) was the offensive line.

The Jags are hoping he secures their front five, who played below their talent last season. The other reason for the hiring of Tice was because Del Rio wasn't a big fan of the pass-happy schemes they ran last year.

Tice is expected to focus on ball-control, which makes a lot of sense considering the stout defense and the lack of receiving threats.

At one point in time, the Jaguars' success was directly linked to the health of running back Fred Taylor, but the position is as deep as it has ever been and the team doesn't need him to thrive.

He hasn't produced a 100-yard rushing game prior to the fifth game in the season in any of the last three seasons and although he claims to be in the best shape of his career, the team wasn't please that he decided to workout on his own in the offseason. With Greg Jones looking as healthy as he did prior to his ACL injury and second-round pick Maurice Drew on-board, the Jags are no longer reliant on Taylor and it is not inconceivable for him to playing elsewhere this season.

The Jaguars have a very high ceiling this year, but their success will be tied to the passing game. If they can succeed in the air without Jimmy Smith and Matt Jones and/or Marcedes Lewis are constant threats, the Jags are a Super Bowl contender. If not, they won't be returning to the playoffs.

Over/Under: 9.5

While the Texans and Titans have improved in the offseason, the Colts have taken a step backwards. There is an opening for the Jags to take this division, especially since they seem to play well against the Colts, but they will need to find stability with their passing game. They play: DAL, PIT, @IND, @WAS, NYJ, @HOU, @PHI, TEN, HOU, NYG, @BUF, @MIA, IND, @TEN, NE, and @KC.

Fantasy Sleeper

Greg Jones is as healthy as he has been since tearing his ACL in college and Del Rio is talking about him as possibly becoming the starter. Even if Fred Taylor is still around, Jones figures to get most of the red zone carries. The goal is to be more ball-control oriented, and if that's the case, Jones has a lot of upside in this offense.

This is the fourth consecutive season of comprehensive NFL previews by Dave Golokhov. Stay tuned as he brings you previews for all 32 NFL teams! He can be reached at [email protected].