Continued from part one, part two, and part three.
Every decade has about 10 to 15 players who are above and beyond the rest of the league. The '90s had guys like Ken Griffey, Jr., Chipper Jones, and Barry Bonds. In the 2000s, we're seeing guys like Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter cementing their Hall of Fame careers. And this "Universe Draft" is about trying to find the guys that will be one of those elite 10-to-15 players in the 2010s and beyond.
But in every era, there seems to be a significant drop-off of talent after about the first dozen players. And we'll see that drop off in the following picks, Nos. 16-20, after these players who were taken in the top 15:
1. Yankees — Albert Pujols
2. Red Sox — Felix Hernandez
3. Cubs — Francisco Liriano
4. Devil Rays — Scott Kazmir
5. Marlins — Jonathan Papelbon
6. Athletics — Joe Mauer
7. Braves — Justin Verlander
8. Tigers — David Wright
9. Cardinals — Miguel Cabrera
10. White Sox — Johan Santana
11. Mets — Jose Reyes
12. Indians — Grady Sizemore
13. Twins — Dontrelle Willis
14. Blue Jays — Jered Weaver
15. Angels — Ryan Howard
The next five teams to draft will be:
16. Houston Astros
17. Cincinnati Reds
18. San Diego Padres
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
20. Seattle Mariners
And with that, let's continue with the draft:
16. Astros
The proven all-stars left on the board are Carlos Zambrano, Adam Dunn, Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Hank Blalock, Mark Texeira, and Alex Rios. All of those guys, with the exception of Cano, are over 25. This means a lot of these guys have already reached their peak and the improvement from here will not be significant.
As of late, Zambrano is proving why he has been an all-star for the past few seasons. Not only does he swing a mean bat, but he pitches like a madman. And in cozy Minute Made Ballpark (forever Enron in my heart), they'll need a groundball pitcher like Zambrano to keep them in a seven-game series.
The pick: Carlos Zambrano
17. Reds
The Reds have always been on the downswing since Griffey arrived. They've never been experienced enough and talented enough at the same time to be a threat late in the season. The pitchers left on the board are, well ... there are none, really. Pitchers in baseball are like running backs in fantasy football — everyone knows it's what wins games.
So where do the Reds go from here? This late in the draft, it's about getting sure things. It's about getting guys who can make a quality start 95 percent of the time, or about getting guys that will bat .300 each season with solid power numbers. Since the former isn't available, the Reds will have to settle for a position player.
They're own player, Adam Dunn, is still on the board, but are power hitters who don't hit for average more valuable to a team that guys who get on base often? According to Billy Beane and Moneyball, nope.
So with that, the Reds go with a guy who will hit .300, as well as drive in runs consistently.
The pick: Hank Blalock
18. Padres
The same principles apply for all the teams who pick this late: get a guy who is young and proven. There's always the temptation to take a guys like Prince Fielder or Rickie Weeks in hopes that they turn out to be great, but when the teams in front of you have Pujols, Wright, and Sizemore, it's tough to convince yourself to take a risk.
There are also guys like Josh Johnson, who is dominating the National League as a rookie. But banking on young pitchers who came out of no where is risky. Fluke seasons happen all the time for rookies who don't have great stuff, simply because there is something that the hitters have yet to pick up — we'll call it the "Hideo Nomo Rule," soon to be the "Dontrelle Willis Rule" if he flops anytime soon.
The Reds took Blalock because he was a sure thing, and the Padres will follow suit with Texeira, who has proven that he can stay healthy and be a consistent performer. It may seem like those prerequisites are easy to meet, but look around the league — only a few great players actually stay healthy throughout the grind of a season.
The pick: Mark Texeira
19. Diamondbacks
Remember when the D-Backs won the World Series behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling? Do you mind if I call that the cheapest World Series of all time? It seems utterly unfair to take two of the most dominant pitchers of this age and use them in a seven-game series — but it worked.
So as other teams are settling for good position players as opposed to risky or older pitchers, the D-Backs are going to take one of their own pitchers who they hope will develop into a Johnson or Schilling-type player. In other words, the D-Backs are looking to pitch their way through a series with two dominant starters.
The pick here is Brandon Webb, but the risk here is injury. In five years, Webb will be 33 — hardly youthful, and often a time when pitchers falter. But guys like Johnson, Schilling, Greg Maddux and even Jamie Moyer seen to be able to stick around forever. Why is that? Because of conditioning, or pitching style. Webb eerily reminds me of a Moyer, except Webb has about 10 mph on Moyer's fastball. Webb's command is incredible and if you watch him pitch, the batters are constantly off-balance. You don't see that with most other pitchers.
The pick: Brandon Webb
20. Mariners
The Mariners have always developed great talent — A-Rod, Griffey, Randy Johnson, Moyer… the list goes on. Many players have their breakthrough season with the Mariners and it seems to have something to do with their scouting. Where did Jose Lopez comes from? And how the hell did they find Felix Hernandez?
So needless to say, these guys know what they're doing. But it seems the team just hasn't been able to take advantage of their new ballpark. Safeco Field is a pitcher's haven (as opposed to the wretched Kingdome) and the Mariners' pitching has always been less-than-stellar.
Having figured out that the equation, Safeco + pitching = wins, the Mariners look for a pitcher ... but sadly, the pitching left on the board consists of Josh Johnson, Joel Zumaya, and Matt Cain. Okay, so it looks like the Mariners go back to finding some hitting — just like the olden days. And just like the olden days, they'll take an outfielder who hits mammoth home runs, but can't hit for average. Remember Jay Buhner?
The pick: Adam Dunn
I'm guessing you can see the drop-off in talent just about now. We go from Reyes, Willis, Sizemore, Weaver, and Howard to Zambrano, Blalock, Texeira, Webb, and Dunn. The difference here is ag e— the latter group will all be 30 or older in five years. The guys picked 10-15 will not be older than 30 for six to seven years (with the exception of Howard).
The next five picks will be as follows. In the previous columns, I explained why each team got each pick. But these last 10 teams are just plain bad, so it's just simply the 10 worst teams in order of how bad they've been in recent memory.
21. Philadelphia Phillies
22. Colorado Rockies
23. Washington Nationals
24. Los Angeles Dodgers
25. San Francisco Giants
Stay tuned for part five of this six-part series. Visit the archives for part one, part two, and part three.
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