College Football ‘06 Winners and Losers

The best season of the year is less than a month away and most college football fans have picked up their favorite preview publications to begin the debate about its predictions. They also look to see which schools are expected to contend for the national championship, which ones have no chance, and which ones might end up being the "Cinderella story out of nowhere."

To add fuel to the fire, the preseason coaches poll was released several days ago, so fans can compare what the coaches think to what their favorite magazine writers think.

Of course, no magazine or poll can be taken as the be-all-end-all of predictors, which is why the BCS takes several polls and averages them. The same can be done with the major preview publications to reach a "consensus" list. One particular website has done the legwork of compiling these predictions each season since 1993 to create the consensus list based on a point system. For instance, for last season's predictions, 11 of the 12 publications reviewed listed USC as their preseason number one. This year, they're not as unified.

Eleven magazines or websites are included in this year's list, five of which rank Notre Dame as the top team in the land. The other six are split between Ohio State and Oklahoma, and the coaches have crowned the Buckeyes as the favorite, as well. Since 1993, the coaches have correctly predicted the national champion four times; three of those champions also were predicted by the writers. Does that mean anything? Other than one year the coaches might have known something the media didn't, not really. Should one go to Vegas and bet the farm on Ohio State this year? I wouldn't recommend it.

However, the coaches and writers do agree on who are the best 10 teams in the nation, although the positions don't always matchup. In fact, they pretty much have the same teams in the top 25 with a couple exceptions: the coaches have Oregon and Alabama in their top 25 while the writers replace them with Arizona State and Utah — none of the four finished 2005 with a national ranking. That holds true for Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee, all of which are expected to do well this season.

To focus on the preseason consensus from here on out, let's look at who the biggest "winners and losers" are from last year to this. Aside from the five unranked teams at the end of last season who are on this year's list (Michigan ranks the highest at No. 14), Oklahoma is the biggest winner. Finishing 2005 with a No. 22 ranking in both the AP and coaches poll, the writers love 'em in 2006 with a consensus fourth position.

Another team with a big jump in the polls from last year is Florida State. The Seminoles were ranked 23rd when all was said and done at the end of the bowl season, but the publication consensus has them 10th to start 2006. Two teams that start the season ranked higher than FSU, but did not have as large a leap up the ladder are Notre Dame, which finished 9/10 in the two polls last year and are the consensus favorite this year, and Auburn, with a preseason ranking of 6 from a season-ending 14.

One other squad with a big jump, although not expected to contend for the national title, is Cal. The Golden Bears start the season ranked 13th after finishing 2005 at the bottom of the top 25. Louisville is expected to better this year than last, starting out at No. 11 following a 19/20 ranking to end 2005. Finally, Miami also had a mildly significant jump, up from 17/18 to 12, and Nebraska starts out 18th after finishing 24th last season.

As far as the "losers" go, the team with the biggest drop is Penn State. The Nittany Lions finished 2005 with a No. 3 ranking, but start this season all the way down at 19. Texas Christian also fell significantly, starting this season 25th after an 11/9 finish in 2005. Virginia Tech is way down this season, gathering a 17-spot from the consensus after ranking 7th at the end of last season, and Georgia starts out 16th after ranking 10th to end 2005.

Teams that finished the 2005 season ranked, but did not crack the consensus top 25 to begin this season are Alabama (8), Oregon (13/12), Wisconsin, (15), UCLA (16/13), and Boston College (18/17).

Of course, in the end, the polls and predictions don't matter — it's what happens on the field between the end of August and early December. But that's one of the reasons we watch throughout the season, to see if any of those predictions come true. How many times in mid-October have we been talking football with someone and heard or said, "Man, so-and-so was supposed to be good this year — what happened to them?" Or, "Look at those guys in the top five — they were supposed to be horrible!" That's what makes college football so great and fun to follow. Can't wait for kickoff!